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The coming military and psychological unravelling?

Ashes of Pompeii | March 27, 2026

In the late 1960’s, America stood at the zenith of its postwar power. Its economy dominated, its military seemed unstoppable, and its confidence was unshakable. The war in Vietnam was going swimmingly, MacNamara’s body counts were the proof of it. Then came Tet.

January 30th, 1968, Tet, the Vietnamese lunar new year. On that day and the next North Vietnamese and Viet Cong forces launched coordinated attacks on over 100 cities, and hundreds more rural sites, across South Vietnam. It was not merely a surprise attack, but a fundamental inflection point. The Viet Cong struck everywhere at once, proving they were not a ragtag insurgency, peasants in sandals, but a coordinated, disciplined force with sophisticated low-tech commincation and coordination networks. They eventually lost the battles, yes, but they shattered the myth of American invincibility. The psychological blow was irreversible. Public trust collapsed. The war wasn’t lost on the battlefield that week; it was lost first on the 6 o’oclock news, and then in the American mind.

That is the lesson we miss when we reduce Tet to just a “surprise.” It was the moment the trajectory of American power bent. Not because the U.S. stopped winning battles, but because the world, and Americans themselves, realized victory was not just a question of firepower, and was not inevitable.

Today, we seem to be approaching a similar inflection point in the Gulf. Not a repeat of 1968, but a parallel unraveling. American power projection, naval dominance, air superiority, deterrence credibility, is being tested in real time. The contemplated land operations, Kharg Island, Hormuz, wherever, carry the same hubris that marked early Vietnam: assumptions in the Trump administration of quick success, underestimation of adversary resolve, and overreliance on technology against an enemy that thrives in ambiguity and asymetric warfare.

The difference now is the psychological context. In 1968, many Americans doubted the war’s morality, but no one doubted their nation’s raw power. Today, social media and fragmented news mean more people see the cracks: stalled initiatives, diplomatic friction, asymmetric losses. Yet for many leaders, and for the archetype of the “average American” still shaped by post-Cold War triumphalism, the idea of a swift, visible military debacle remains unthinkable. Despite Vietnam. Despite Iraq and Afghanistan. Despite the American helicoptors in Iran in 1979 or “Black Hawk Down”.

The new Tet moment has not yet arrived. In the American mind, all of the above failures were somehow due to individual failures, lack of resolve or coordination, the hippies, Carter or Biden’s weakness, …

It hasn’t arrived yet, but all indications are that the next Tet is approaching very fast. A military disaster is already unfolding but it is gradual, there are no headlines (yet?) saying “TODAY WE LOST”. A large military operation in the Gulf involving thousands of troops could well be that moment. Geography, logistics, fighting spirit, and for once possibly even technology, all favor the Iranians. Drones, missiles, mines. Lack of air defense. Shore versus ship. Improvisation and lack of detailed planning. An American command structure without real experience in modern warfare. It all adds up. Hegseth’s 10,000 targets as the modern version of MacNamara’s body counts.

The coming days or weeks could deliver this new Tet moment. A failed operation. A strategic miscalculation that exposes limits. An outcome that cannot be spun. In a hyper-connected age, the perception shift would be instantaneous. The already threadbare myth of omnipotence would fracture not over months of coverage, but in hours of viral footage.

If January 30, 1968 marked the peak before the long decline of American unquestioned authority, then the Gulf today may be where that curve bends again. Not because America is now weak, but it is unquestionably weaker. And the world has changed, adversaries have learned and adapted. The question isn’t whether the U.S. can win a battle, the coming operations might even initially be successful, it’s whether the American psyche can absorb a strategic setback without overreacting.

We may be days or weeks from that pivot. Not a surprise, but a culmination. Tet didn’t create the American crisis in Vietnam; it revealed it. The Gulf’s Tet will fully reveal the limits of the old America-centric world order. And when that moment comes, it remains to be seen whether America can face the new reality without losing its bearings.

March 27, 2026 Posted by | Militarism | , | Comments Off on The coming military and psychological unravelling?

Iran has the last laugh

By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | March 27, 2026

Wars are always unpredictable. The most famous instance is of another armada like the US’ in the Persian Gulf at the moment — the Spanish Armada, a 130-ship naval fleet sent by Spain in 1588 commanded by Alonso de Guzmán, Duke of Medina Sidonia, an aristocrat appointed by Philip II of Spain to invade England, depose Queen Elizabeth I, and restore Catholicism.

Despite its strength, the Spanish Armada was defeated in the English Channel by a smaller English force using fireships and better artillery, then largely destroyed by storms while retreating around Scotland and Ireland.

The US president Donald Trump’s much-touted armada has more or less the same mission as the Spanish Armada — ranging from regime change to  overthrow of the Islamic system of governance to the unspoken leitmotif of a Crusade. Curiously, it seems destined for a similar miserable ending too, the US’ overwhelming military superiority notwithstanding.

Sir Alexander William Younger KCMGUS, former head of MI6, said in an interview with the Economist on Monday that Iran has gained the “upper hand” in the ongoing war with the United States and Iran.  Sir Alexander complimented Iran.

More than one factor contributed to this “paradigm shift” of the Big Boy coming out second best. Bad planning, lack of a coherent strategy,  over-confidence over the US’ apparent military superiority– all these played their part in the undoing of the plot against Iran that the two aggressors hatched.

It is now out in the open that, incredibly enough, just 16 days into the war, the US forces were already running out of ATACMS/PrSM ground-attack missiles; and, Israel is about to expend its entire Arrow interceptor missiles by the end March. 

The Royal United Services Institute in London published on March 24 an analysis/expert opinion highlighting that the war in Iran has virtually hollowed out the inventory of the US and Israel’s “most critical assets” with no prospects of replenishment anytime soon in a near future due to the fragilities of the US defence industrial base. 

The findings are a stark warning that with the conflict having “settled into a grinding trial of attrition” after the first 96 hours, the inventories of long-range interceptors and precision strike weapons are nearing exhaustion. 

The CEO of Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger warned on 19 March that global stockpiles are “empty or nearly empty” and if the war continues another month, “we nearly have no missiles available”.

To be sure, Iranians are watching closely and that explains their defiant stance that “Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its conditions are met.” Tehran has warned that it will continue to deal “heavy blows” across the Middle East. Media reports confirm Iran’s claim that it has rendered dysfunctional the US bases all across the region. Had it not been about a war, there is cause for celebration when the notorious bully gets thrashed by a little brother.

Word is spreading in the US despite the cover-up by the administration that “The U.S. war in Iran is taking a mounting toll on America’s military, with rising casualties, dwindling munitions stockpiles, a sidelined aircraft carrier and numerous downed aircraft just three weeks into the conflict, ” to quote from The Hill, an influential newspaper that circulates among lawmakers in the US Congress.

The report adds, “At least 13 U.S. service members have been killed, while another 232 have been injured since the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran began on Feb. 28. In addition, some 16 American aircraft have been destroyed, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier was damaged in a laundry room fire earlier this month and American forces are quickly blowing through stocks of air defence and long-range munitions.”

The commentary carried by RUSI says that Iran has damaged at least a dozen US and allied radars and satellite terminals, which has impacted the efficiency of interception. Evidently, using 10 or 11 interceptors for one Iranian missile or 8 patriot missiles for one Iranian drone becomes unsustainable going ahead. It underscored that the US military is “approximately a month, or less, away from running out of ATACMS/PrSM ground-attack missiles and THAAD interceptors. And Israel is in an even more precarious spot, with its Arrow interceptor missiles likely to be completely expended by the end of March.”

In real terms, this implies accepting greater risk for aircraft and tolerating more Iranian missiles and drones damaging US-Israeli forces and infrastructure. The audacious Iranian attacks this week on Dimona, Israel’s nuclear city, is a vivid example. 

“The precariousness … could possibly explain why President Trump is already suggesting the ‘winding down’ of the Iran war; it could take years to replace what was expended in only 16 days,” the commentary points out. Given the limitations of the US defence industrial base, “it will likely take at least 5 years to replenish the 500 plus Tomahawk missiles already fired in the war. 

“Worse, sourcing critical defence minerals, rare earths, and materials to make the weapons and munitions is complicated by China. China controls most of the world’s gallium and germanium, and Beijing has imposed numerous mineral export controls since 2023, to prevent the US and its allies from acquiring these necessary inputs for the defence industrial base.”

The “strategic consequence” of all this is that continued fighting with Iran not only increases the risk to forces in-theatre but engenders the bigger risk of what it does to deterrence and defence elsewhere, such as “protecting Taiwan and supporting Ukraine”. 

Besides, if the US prioritises replenishing its own stocks, it slows deliveries to other partners. Allies are already signalling concern that “an American focus on its own military replenishment will delay weapon and munition deliveries they have already paid for.”

The reigning superpower that was Spain in the 16th century saw its power crumble after the defeat of the Armada, while England would soon control an empire that the sun never set on. Is history repeating on a similar template in our world in transition?

March 27, 2026 Posted by | Militarism | , , , , , | Comments Off on Iran has the last laugh