Netanyahu Has Lost Saudi Arabia, and Biden Will Lose Re-Election
By Steven Sahiounie | Strategic Culture Foundation | February 23, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in late 2022 that his priority was to sign a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. He called it his number one objective for Israel’s national security. Now, he has lost his dream.
Saudi Arabia stood up alongside 51 countries, and testified at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel’s attack on Gaza which has been classified as genocide, and apartheid by human rights experts, South Africa and others. The evidence being presented to the ICJ rule is to prove that the occupation of Palestine is illegal, and must be ended.
Saudi Arabia condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza, and the Occupied West Bank as legally indefensible. Ziad Al-Atiyah, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the Netherlands, strongly condemned Israel for its actions in Palestine which defy international law.
Al-Atiyah stressed that Israel must be held accountable for ignoring international law in its treatment of civilians in Gaza and its continued impunity.
Saudi Arabia expressed deep sorrow over the killing of 29,000 civilians, who are mainly women and children, and rejected Israel’s argument of self-defense, stating that depriving Palestinians of basic means of survival is unjustifiable.
Al-Atiyah called on the international community to take action against Israel’s genocidal actions against Palestinians, and Israel’s constant dehumanizing rhetoric. He added that the court does indeed have jurisdiction in this case, and urged the court to issue an opinion.
Saudi Arabia condemned Israel’s disregard for ceasefire calls, while expanding illegal settlements in the Occupied West Bank, and the expulsion of Palestinians from their homes.
The Kingdom listed Israel’s violations of international obligations, while ignoring UN resolutions condemning its conduct and preventing Palestinians from their right to self-defense.
Israel was also criticized for its 2018 Basic Law declaring Jerusalem as its capital, which is in clear violation of UN resolutions, and the expansion of illegal settlements, and preventing the self-determination of the Palestinian people, which is a universal human right.
Who else is there?
The UN General Assembly requested the ICJ for an advisory opinion on the Israeli occupation of Palestine. 51 states will present arguments until Feb. 26.
South Africa, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and Belgium also presented preliminary arguments.
This is the largest case ever presented at the ICJ and at least three international organizations are also slated to address the judges at the UN’s top court until next week. A nonbinding legal opinion will follow the judges’ deliberations.
Gaza changed everything: the world is against Israel, except the U.S.
Amar Bendjama, Algeria’s ambassador to the UN, introduced a ceasefire resolution at the UN on February 20. He said the Council “cannot afford passivity” in the face of what is unfolding in Gaza, and that silence is “not a viable option”.
“This resolution is a stance for truth and humanity, standing against the advocates for murder and hatred,” he said. “Voting against it implies an endorsement of the brutal violence and collective punishment inflicted upon them [the Palestinians].”
His words of bitter accusation were directed at one country: The United States of America. The only country to vote against the ceasefire was America. The UN Security Council’s 13 other member countries voted in favor of demanding a halt to the war, while the UK abstained.
Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, has consistently held her hand up high while voting against every chance to relieve the suffering, injuries and deaths of the people in Gaza.
Thomas-Greenfield’s ancestors were African slaves in the U.S. Her ancestors were deprived of all human rights for hundreds of years until they were granted freedom, and that freedom came resulting from a bloody four-year war. Her ancestors fought for the freedom that she enjoys, and yet she is defending Israel. She fails to empathize with the Palestinians who should remind her of her ancestors.
The U.S. is isolated as a pariah state because of Gaza
The moral authority of the U.S. has been ripped from Washington, DC. by the power of the genocide and war crimes in Gaza, carried out by Israel while using weapons sent to Tel Aviv from the U.S. State Department. Biden’s fingerprints are all over the murder weapons.
How many countries called for ceasefire in Gaza?
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, reports that 26 out of 27 EU countries call for “immediate humanitarian pause in Gaza, that would lead to a sustainable ceasefire.” The U.S. likes to think of Europe as their sheep, blindly following every dictate issued by the Oval Office. But, Gaza has changed that; now the EU is voicing ethical and moral authority over the U.S.
Netanyahu took office on December 29, 2022, and he is allied by the most extreme right-wing politicians in Israel’s history. Ben Gvir and Smotrich have both made racist and genocidal statements about Palestinians. Their views vacillate between the need to either kill all the Palestinians, or force them to move to Egypt and Jordan.
But, Netanyahu faces a prison term for corruption, and these radical allies are all that is keeping him safe, and in office. His hands are tied: he has to keep them happy, which means he must refuse any call for a ceasefire.
President Donald Trump had championed the Abraham Accords while in office, and was successful in getting several Arab countries to normalize their relationship with Israel. Trump had done more for Israel than any other U.S. President.
Israel wanted normal ties with Saudi Arabia to benefit the economy, and to discourage Iranian influence in the region.
How many countries are supporting Palestine?
In 2012, the State of Palestine was accepted as an observer state at the UN. 139 countries at the UN have recognized the State of Palestine, compared with the 165 countries recognizing Israel.
Biden will lose re-election because of Gaza
Andy Levin, a former Representative of Michigan, and a Democrat, was at a gathering on February 20 demonstrating against Biden. Levin explained that Michigan has a large Arab American population, and they are very angry at Biden’s support of the genocide in Gaza. Levin said a Trump victory is very possible if Biden loses support of Michigan voters.
Especially angry are young voters and progressives who believe in human rights and freedom for all peoples, not just Americans.
“Don’t blame us,” said Mr. Levin, who along with Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan has become one of the most prominent supporters of the Uncommitted movement. Levin said, “He needs votes from Arab Americans, from people of color, from progressive Jews and from young people. He only won Michigan by 150,000 votes in 2020, so politically we have a moment where we can raise our voices.”
People at the rally expressed their horror at the over 29,000 deaths in Gaza, and the refusal of the U.S. to demand a ceasefire and humanitarian deliveries. With scenes on social media of starving Palestinians being gunned down by Israeli soldiers as they try to reach the aid trucks, the Americans who are informed and caring are deciding to not vote for Biden, and in such a close race, he needs every vote to win.
A poll in October found that more people ages 18-29 sympathized with Palestinians than with Israelis in the Gaza war.
Young people are very well informed with what is happening in Gaza by their almost constant use of social media, where they get all their news. Older people might be still watching TV channels, which in the U.S. are very heavily biased towards Israel.
Biden’s November re-election depends on young voters, but he has lost their vote because of his steadfast support of the slaughter of over 29,000 people in Gaza.
Why did Saudi Arabia want normalization?
In September, the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, declared that normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia was a U.S. “national security interest”.
On September 21, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), told Fox News, “Every day we get closer” to a normalization deal with Israel. Gaza has killed that dream, because Saudi Arabia has stressed that normalization now will only be achieved by a two-state solution under UN resolutions. Netanyahu has totally rejected the two-state solution, the end of occupation, and a ceasefire.
Riyadh wanted a U.S. defense pact; including fewer restrictions on U.S. arms sales to it, and assistance in developing its own civilian nuclear program. Another perk from signing with Israel would be AIPAC, the political lobby group which political experts in Washington, DC. accredit with tremendous control over the Oval Office and Capitol Hill.
Saudi Arabia and Iran normalize relations
In March 2023, China brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Beijing proved their influential role in the Middle East in contrast to the diminishing role of the United States.
That Chinese deal was a major blow to Biden, who had wanted to keep Iran and Saudi Arabia enemies because Israel views Iran as their enemy.
Since then, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been expanding their cooperation in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.
Israel is accused of genocide at the ICJ
Israel stands accused of genocide at the ICJ. The ruling in January ordered Tel Aviv to stop genocidal acts and take measures to guarantee that humanitarian assistance is provided to civilians in Gaza.
“We have dozens and dozens of statements made by senior Israeli political and military leaders with respect to genocidal intent. So I think, at least the plausibility has been established, and there’s quite possibly genocide itself or a genocide in the making, according to the definition of the Genocide Convention,” said Michael Lynk, former UN special rapporteur.
Lynk also pointed to the role of the U.S. in supporting Israel in its onslaught that has left nearly 30,000 Palestinians dead, noting that Washington, besides replenishing Tel Aviv’s shrinking ammunition stocks with 3.8 billion in military aid, is also providing it diplomatic cover at the UN.
“So, it’s hard to see how this offensive and this coming catastrophe in Rafah is going to stop unless the U.S. pulls to a stop and tells Israel that ‘enough is enough,’” said Lynk, while adding “I don’t see that coming.”
The Three Strands to the ‘Swarming of Biden’
By Alastair Crooke | Strategic Culture Foundation | February 2, 2024
“The Iranians have a strategy, and we don’t”, a former senior U.S. Defence Department official told Al-Monitor: “We’re getting bogged down in tactical weeds – of whom to target and how – and nobody’s thinking strategically”.
The former Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar has coined the term ‘swarming’ to describe this process of non-state actors miring the U.S. in the tactical attrition – from the Levant to the Persian Gulf.
‘Swarming’ has been associated more recently with a radical evolution in modern warfare (most evident in Ukraine), where the use of autonomous swarming drones, continuously communicating with each other via AI, select and direct the attack to targets identified by the swarm.
In the Ukraine, Russia has pursued a patient, calibrated attrition to drive hard-Right ultranationalists from the field of battle (in central and eastern Ukraine), together with their western NATO facilitators.
NATO attempts at deterrence towards Russia (that recently have veered off into ‘terrorist’ attacks inside Russia – i.e. on Belgorod) notably have failed to produce results. Rather, Biden’s close embrace of Kiev has left him exposed politically, as U.S. and European zeal for the project implodes. The war has bogged down the U.S., without any electorally acceptable exit – and all can see it. Moscow drew-in Biden to an elaborate attritional web. He should ‘get out’ quick – but the 2024 campaign binds him.
So, Iran has been setting a very similar strategy throughout the Gulf, maybe taking its cue from the Ukraine conflict.
Less than a day after the attack on Tower 22, the military base ambiguously perched on the membrane between Jordan and the illegal U.S. al-Tanaf base in Syria, Biden promised that the U.S. would provide a quick and determined response to the attacks against it in Iraq and Syria (by what he calls ‘Iran-linked’ militia).
Simultaneously however, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby stated that the U.S. doesn’t want to expand military operations opposite Iran. Just as in Ukraine, where the White House has been loath to provoke Moscow into all-out war versus NATO, so too in the region, Biden is (rightly) wary of out-right war with Iran.
Biden’s political considerations in this election-year will be uppermost. And that, at least partly, will depend on the fine calibration by the Pentagon of just how exposed to missile and drone attacks U.S. forces are in Iraq and Syria.
The bases there are ‘sitting ducks’; a fact would be an embarrassing admission. But a hurried evacuation (with overtones of the last flights from Kabul) would be worse; it could be electorally disastrous.
The U.S. seemingly aims to find a way to hurt Iranian and Resistance forces just enough to show that Biden is ‘very angry’, yet without perhaps doing real damage – i.e. it is a form of ‘militarised psychotherapy’, rather than hard politics.
Risks remain: bomb too much, and the wider regional war will ignite to a new level. Bomb too little, and the swarm just rolls on, ‘swarming’ the U.S. on multiple fronts until it finally caves – and finally exits the Levant.
Biden thus finds himself in an exhausting, ongoing secondary war with groups and militias rather than states (whom the Axis seeks to shield). In spite of its militia character, however the war has been causing major damage to the economies of states in the region. They have fathomed that American deterrence has not been showing results (i.e., with Ansarallah in the Red Sea).
Some of those countries – including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – have initiated ‘private’ steps that were not coordinated with the U.S. They are not only speaking with these militia and movements, but also directly with Iran.
The strategy to ‘swarm’ the U.S. on multiple fronts was plainly stated at the recent ‘Astana Format’ meeting between Russia, Iran, and Turkey on 24-25 January. The latter triumvirate are busy preparing the endgame in Syria (and ultimately, in the Region as a whole).
The joint statement after the Astana Format meeting in Kazakhstan, MK Bhadrakumar has noted:
“is a remarkable document predicated almost entirely on an end to the U.S. occupation of Syria. It indirectly urges Washington to give up its support of terrorist groups and their affiliates “operating under different names in various parts of Syria” as part of attempts to create new realities on the ground, including illegitimate self-rule initiatives under the pretext of ‘combating terrorism.’ It demands an end to the U.S.’ illegal seizure and transfer of oil resources “that should belong to Syria””.
The statement thus spells out the objectives starkly. In sum, patience has run out over the U.S. weaponising the Kurds and attempting to revitalise ISIS in order to disrupt the tripartite plans for a Syria settlement. The trio want the U.S. out.
It is with these objectives – insisting that Washington give up its support of terrorist groups and their affiliates as part of attempts to create new realities on the ground, including illegitimate self-rule initiatives under the pretext of ‘combating terrorism’ – that the ‘Astana’ Russian and Iranian strategy for Syria finds common ground with that of the Resistance’s strategy.
The latter may reflect an Iranian strategy overall – but the Astana Statement shows the underlying principles to be Russia’s too.
In his first substantive statement after 7 October, Seyed Nasrallah (speaking for the Axis of Resistance as a whole) indicated a strategic Resistance pivot: Whereas the conflict triggered by events in Gaza was centrally connected with Israel, Seyed Nasrallah additionally underlined that the backdrop to Israel’s disruptive behaviour lay with America’s ‘forever wars’ of divide-and-rule in support of Israel.
In short, he tied the causality of America’s many regional wars to the interests of Israel.
So, here, we come to the third strand to the ‘swarming of Biden’.
Only it is not regional actors that are contriving to box-in Biden – it is America’s own protégé: Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Netanyahu and Israel are the principal target of the bigger regional ‘swarm’, but Biden has allowed himself to be enmeshed by it. It seems that he cannot say ‘no’. So here Biden is: boxed-in by Russia in Ukraine; boxed-in in Syria and Iraq, and boxed-in by Netanyahu and an Israel that fears the walls closing-in on their Zionist project.
There is likely no electoral ‘sweet-spot’ to be found here for Biden, between inserting America into an unpopular and electorally disastrous, all-out Middle East war, and between ‘green-lighting’ Israel’s huge gamble on victory over war against Hizbullah.
The confluence between the failed Ukrainian ploy to weaken Russia, and the risky ploy for Israel’s war on Hizbullah, is unlikely to be lost on Americans.
Netanyahu too is between a rock and a hard place. He knows that ‘a victory’ that boils down to just the release of the hostages, and confidence-building measures to establish a Palestinian state, would not restore Israeli deterrence – inside or outside the state. On the contrary, it would erode it. It would be ‘a defeat’ – and without a clear victory in the south (over Hamas), a victory in the north would be demanded by many Israelis, including key members of his own cabinet.
Recall the mood within Israel: The latest Peace Index survey shows that 94% percent of Israeli Jews think Israel used the right amount of firepower in Gaza – or not enough (43%). And three-quarters of Israelis think the number of Palestinians harmed since October is justified.
If Netanyahu is boxed in, so is Biden.
On Tuesday, Netanyahu former said:
“We will not end this war with anything less than the achievement of all its objectives … We will not withdraw the IDF from the Gaza Strip and we won’t release thousands of terrorists. None of that is going to happen. What is going to happen? Total victory.”
“Is Netanyahu capable of veering strongly to the left… entering into an historic process that will end the war in Gaza and lead to a Palestinian state – coupled with an historic peace agreement with Saudi Arabia? Probably not. Netanyahu has kicked over many other similar buckets before they were filled”, opined veteran commentator, Ben Caspit, in Ma’ariv (in Hebrew).
Biden is making a huge bet. Best to wait on what Hamas and the Gaza Resistance answers to the hostage proposal. The omens, however, do not look positive for Biden —
Senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad officials responded yesterday to the latest proposal:
“The Paris proposal is no different from previous proposals submitted by Egypt … [The proposal] does not lead to a ceasefire. We want guarantees to end the genocidal war against our people. The resistance is not weak. No conditions will be imposed on it” (Ali Abu Shahin, member of Islamic Jihad’s political bureau).
“Our position is a ceasefire, the opening of the Rafah crossing, international and Arab guarantees for the restoration of the Gaza Strip, the withdrawal of the occupation forces from Gaza, finding a housing solution for the displaced and the release of prisoners according to the principle of all for all … I am confident that we are heading for victory. The patience of the American administration is running out because Netanyahu is not bringing achievements” (Senior Hamas official, Alli Baraka).
New Israeli strikes kill dozens of Palestinians in Gaza as Netanyahu rejects ceasefire calls
Israeli bombardment on Gaza on November 12, 2023
Press TV – November 12, 2023
Relentless Israeli air and ground attacks have killed dozens of Palestinian civilians over the last few hours, as the Israeli regime’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has rejected mounting international calls for a ceasefire.
Rescue and civil defense teams retrieved the bodies of four civilians from the Hamdan family home in the Sabra neighborhood of Gaza City, which was targeted by an Israeli missile strike in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Israeli warplanes also targeted a house belonging to Abdullah al-Adini, a local Palestinian resident in the city of Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, resulting in the murder of three civilians.
Separately, at least 10 civilians lost their lives and more than 20 others were injured in an Israeli airstrike targeting the Najjar family’s house east of Khan Yunis in southern Gaza.
Meanwhile, three infants and five critically ill patients in the Shifa Medical Complex died Sunday morning due to oxygen shortage, while others are on the verge of death due to the continuous Israeli siege.
At least five infants died in less than 48 hours due to the cessation of medical services at the Shifa Complex.
Israeli tanks are currently stationed outside the maternity ward of the Shifa Complex, and that Israeli artillery have targeted the intensive care unit, resulting in multiple injuries.
Dozens of dead bodies remained across the compound and in its surroundings, and rescue teams have been unable to reach them for evacuation due to the intensity of the Israeli bombardment and gunfire targeting anyone moving.
The headquarters of the United Nations Development Programme in Gaza was also hit by Israeli airstrikes, leading to the death of five displaced persons and the injury of 15 others.
Gaza’s embattled hospitals face total collapse as bombardments continue and Israeli tanks and troops surround medical facilities, with patients and staff trapped inside.
In Gaza City, operations have been suspended at Al-Shifa Hospital after it completely ran out of fuel.
The Israeli military has repeatedly targeted this hospital and other medical facilities over the past five weeks.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recently said that 20 hospitals in the Gaza Strip are now out of action, and the largest hospital in the Palestinian territory was that day coming under bombardment.
Netanyahu rejects growing international pressure over ceasefire
In a televised address on Saturday night, the Israeli prime minister rejected growing international calls for a ceasefire.
Netanyahu also rejected the idea that the Palestinian Authority (PA), which currently administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, would at some stage control Gaza.
He said that Israelis shouldn’t cave into any pressure from such statements or the protests taking place worldwide and said he would stand firm against the world if necessary.
So according to Netanyahu, the Israeli regime has its own agenda and will push it through regardless of what other countries say.
His primetime address came hours after Arab and Muslim leaders at a summit in Riyadh called for an immediate ceasefire as major hospitals in Gaza were on the front line of Israel’s ground offensive.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Palestinians are facing an unmatched genocidal war by the Israeli regime.
Abbas said Israeli actions in the besieged Gaza Strip and across the occupied territories amount to a clear violation of international and humanitarian law.
The president said Palestinians need international protection in the face of Israeli attacks including the desecration of Muslims’ holy sites. He also noted that Palestinians will not negotiate when it comes to their inalienable rights.
Erdogan calls for US to stop Israel’s attack
The United States must use its influence to halt Israel’s offensive in Gaza, Turkey’s leader says.
“The US should increase its pressure on Israel. The West should increase pressure on Israel… It’s vital for us to secure a ceasefire,” said Erdogan. “The most important country that needs to be involved is the United States, which has influence on Israel.”
Erdogan said the US must accept Gaza as Palestinian land. “We cannot agree with Biden if he approaches [the war] by seeing Gaza as the land of occupying settlers or Israel, rather than the land of the Palestinian people.”
Palestinians are enduring relentless bombing of civilian infrastructure including residential buildings, schools, medical facilities, everywhere in the besieged territory.
The total death toll from the war is now at over 11,000. The majority of victims are women and children. Hundreds of people are also missing under the rubble of bombed-out buildings.
According to reports, more than half of the housing units in Gaza were destroyed or damaged by the Israeli bombings.
Israel Will Lose. Here’s Why.
Western media are getting it wrong, just like in Ukraine
BY KEVIN BARRETT | NOVEMBER 8, 2023
Ever since February 2022, Western mainstream media has been telling us that Russia cannot possibly win its war in Ukraine. Zelensky, with his hundreds of billions of dollars’ backing from the West, would surely prevail. Russia has always been taking unbearably heavy losses. Putin is always about to keel over dead. A fresh shipment of US wonder-weapons will turn the tide. A crushing Ukrainian victory is always at hand.
Because they could not imagine Ukraine losing, Western pundits could not see that it was losing. They missed the fact that from the moment the non-Western world majority refused to accept US sanctions on Russia, it was effectively over. Virtually the entire war has been fought under the shadow of an inevitable Russian victory. It has always been just a matter of time.
Might a similar situation prevail in the war for Palestine? The non-Western world majority has turned sharply against Israel—even more sharply than it turned against the US in its war on Russia through Ukraine. Yet Western media continue to manufacture and inhabit a bubble completely divorced from moral and strategic reality. They can’t even imagine Israel being in the wrong, even though it obviously is. They can’t imagine Hamas being noble and chivalrous fighters, and Israelis being cowardly child-killing terrorists, though such is obviously the case. They can’t acknowledge that the vast majority of the world disagrees with them for very good reasons, not because of “anti-Semitism.” And above all they can’t imagine that Israel, despite (or because of) its genocidal assault on civilians, is losing the war.
Just as you had to read “pro-Russian” sources (like Col. Douglas MacGregor) to get the truth about the war in Ukraine, you need to stay abreast of the pro-Resistance global majority view to get an accurate picture of the war for Palestine. To that end, check out my quick, Google-translate-assisted rendition of an enlightening article published yesterday by Al-Jazeera.
The shock that produced the predicament… Israel between an “image of victory” and defeat
Zuhair Hamdani and Talal Mushati for Al-Jazeera
Israeli leaders are preparing a tense and frustrated Israeli public for unforeseen surprises in their war on Gaza, by talking about a long, costly, and cruel war. The high expectations they have set for their war will be difficult to achieve, lacking as they do a clear military or political plan.
Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy says, “We are waging a war with a cruel enemy, and this war has a painful and heavy price,” while Defense Minister Benny Gantz sums up the difficulty of the ground war: “The images coming from the ground battle are painful, and our tears are falling when we see our soldiers falling.”
The Israeli leadership has launched its war on Gaza at a time when it has the confidence of only 27% of the Israeli public, while only about 51% trust the Israeli army. Added to this are the burdens of 250,000 people seeking refuge from the Gaza region and the northern areas near Lebanon, as well as the more than 240 Israelis held prisoner by the resistance in Gaza.
Accordingly, for Israel, this war is not like previous wars. Israel is suffering huge daily losses and erosion of resources, including soldiers, equipment, time, money, and legitimacy (internal and external support). The cost will continue to rise as the war lengthens or expands.
Maariv newspaper comments on the conditions of the ground war taking place on the outskirts of Gaza, saying, “The resistance forces are very far from being broken. Despite the liquidations and assassinations, Hamas is succeeding in most cases in maintaining an organized method of fighting, based mainly on tunnel fighting, exiting from hiding places, and launching missiles at our armoured vehicles.”
Two overriding factors drive the fierce Israeli war on Gaza: the shock of the resounding military defeat and the security and intelligence failure that resulted from the Palestinian resistance’s launch of Operation “Al-Aqsa Storm” on October 7; and the predicament of the huge number of prisoners being held by the Al-Qassam Brigades and other Palestinian factions. Therefore, military action revolves around these two goals.
Under the psychological influence of the “Black Saturday” events, the Israelis went directly to the ultimate goal of any war, which is “to destroy the enemy.” This was a high ceiling that they probably knew, by virtue of previous experience, could not be achieved. It cannot happen except at a price they could not afford to pay.
In this context, Defense Minister Yoav Galant said, “There is no place for Hamas in Gaza. At the end of our battle, there will be no Hamas.” That is an unrealistic goal based on past experience and the current realities on the ground.
Considering previous wars including 2008 and 2014, we find that “destroying Hamas” was always a basic goal that was never achievable. There is no reason to believe that it will be achievable this time, especially since the movement is now much stronger, with much deeper roots in the Gaza Strip, than before. Its military defenses and arsenal have been strengthened to the point of being difficult to penetrate, and in the end it is not a state or a regular army that can announce its surrender, but rather an extended popular resistance movement in the path of a protracted Palestinian struggle.
The war that Israel does not want
If war consists of combat operations that require mobilizing the resources and capabilities of the state to carry out a specific military campaign in order to implement military and political objectives, ranging from moving a front to achieving tactical successes and imposing certain conditions or carrying out a decisive battle that breaks the will of the “enemy,” then it requires an agreed-upon leadership that enjoys a degree of consensus. It requires a military apparatus that is trained, equipped, and at least minimally psychologically mobilized for combat; an appropriate confrontation plan; and a unified, cohesive internal political and social front directed toward that goal.
It also requires an economic mobilization that comprehends the circumstances and course of the war and its surprises, and an understanding or supportive international and regional front. Victory is difficult to achieve if any or all of these conditions are absent, especially in the case of long battles that require continuous mobilization. The results are also linked to the enemy’s reaction, the extent of its strength, and the tactics it chooses.
Was Israel ready?
In terms of military capabilities, Israel always seems prepared for war on several fronts. But technical military capabilities and weapons alone do not resolve wars, especially if they are not the kind of lighting wars that Israel favors. In practice Israel suffers from significant defects in almost all of the above-mentioned ingredients for winning a war.
At the leadership level: There is no agreed-upon leadership in Israel that enjoys consensus or the necessary charisma. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as polls show, is extremely unpopular. In a recent Israeli public opinion survey conducted by the Israeli newspaper Maariv, it was found that only 27% of Israelis support his political survival, and his political and military decisions are not accepted and are subject to widespread criticism. The course of the war has also proven that he is indecisive and does not have a clear and convincing plan for military or political action.
Netanyahu also refuses to accept responsibility for the security failure on October 7, which exposed him to severe internal criticism. Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, for example, warned that Netanyahu’s attempts to evade responsibility and blame the security establishment, thereby weakening the Israeli army, amounted to “crossing red lines.”
The Home Front: The home front appears to have disintegrated. Israelis are living in a state of severe division at the partisan, popular and political levels. Especially controversial is how to deal with the issue of prisoners held by the resistance, in light of the dangers of a ground war and the major losses it would entail.
Netanyahu and the extremist members of his government stand accused of dividing Israeli society. The leader of the opposition Labor Party, Merav Michaeli, has charged the Prime Minister with “fighting the army and the people of Israel.” The issue of prisoners held by the resistance has also sparked internal divisions, especially after Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu called for bombing Gaza with a nuclear weapon, saying, “What does hostage mean? In war, the price is paid. Why are the lives of hostages more precious than the lives of soldiers?” This was considered by Israelis to be “an abandonment by the government of its commitment to returning the hostages.”
Military front: The events of “Al-Aqsa Flood”, especially the first six hours of October 7, demonstrated that the Israeli army suffers from severe deficiencies, as do its many security services. Now the daily losses it is suffering in its ongoing ground operation have made it the object of suspicion within Israeli society, which was relying upon it to maintain an aura of safety and stability.
Economic situation: The Israeli economic situation is at its worst, with major sectors such as tourism paralyzed, travel declining, and the agricultural sector suffering damage. With the mobilization of about 360,000 reserve soldiers, most of them suddenly removed from the labor force, and the evacuation of about 250,000 settlers, the economy is witnessing a severe labor shortage in various fields. Israel recently announced that the last three weeks of war have cost about 7 billion dollars, without taking into account the direct and indirect damages. While this damage may cost about 3 billion dollars per month, preliminary estimates show that the war on Gaza will cost Israel’s budget 200 billion shekels ($51 billion), or about 10% of the gross domestic product, and as the war continues for a long period, the Israeli economy may be crippled according to Israeli estimates.
Diplomatic front: After last October 7, Western countries that were historically biased towards Israel rushed to support it, but this support quickly began to erode due to the impact of Israeli crimes and doubts about the ability of the Israeli army to resolve the war. Many countries condemned Israel or cut off their diplomatic relations with it (Colombia, Bolivia), while other countries recalled their ambassadors (Chile, Jordan, Bahrain, Turkey, Honduras…) Ever-increasing global popular pressure is pushing governments to take boycott measures, exposing Israel to isolation that has begun to worsen.
US Support for Israel Eroding?
In contrast to the direct support at the beginning, the administration of President Joe Biden began to re-assess its absolute support for Netanyahu for fear that things would spiral into a wider regional war. Washington fears the crazy scenarios that Netanyahu may create in an attempt to save his future at America expense.
After about a month, the Americans realized that the only constant in the Israeli plan was the use of massive destructive force targeting civilians and infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. It seemed Netanyahu was waiting for a solution to save himself from a harsh predicament in the sands of Gaza—and waiting for the illusion of the resistance’s surrender that wasn’t going to happen. They began to have doubts about Israel’s management of the war and its results.
CNN has indicated that US President Joe Biden and senior US administration officials have warned Israel that support is eroding as global anger intensifies over the extent of human suffering resulting from its crimes in Gaza.
What’s happening in the field?
Over the course of about a month of war, it does not appear that Israel has achieved any serious gains on the ground. Contradictory statements indicate confusion about how to manage the battle and set final goals in the face of severe resistance. The shock of the mismanaged October 7 battle, and the psychological scars it left on the entire Israeli military establishment, still haunt the course of the war.
This psychological atmosphere also looms over the soldiers, as they realize that their return from the sands of Gaza would require a miracle. They recall the experiences of their colleagues and their bitter memories of the 2014 war as they witness the elite of the Givati Brigade drowning in the sands of Gaza in a battle that is still in its infancy. In effect, the Israeli army advanced a few meters into open lands in the northern Gaza Strip and lost 30 soldiers—according to reports—meaning that it is possible that hundreds of soldiers would be lost if the army advanced a few kilometers, amid a complex network of tunnels and fortifications, minefields, snipers, explosive devices, and hand-to-hand combat in the streets facing the unlimited fighting will of the resistance.
Since Israel does not have a clear plan for the war, it has inclined toward slow, calculated progress inside Gaza. Thus, achieving the dubious final goal may take a long period and unbearably heavy losses. In the meantime, important military or political transformations may occur that will ravage the entire plan.
In its current operations, Israel is losing up to 5 soldiers every day on the outskirts of Gaza without a clear and effective military advance. Nahum Barnea, the Israeli journalist in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, says, “A war of attrition on the outskirts of Gaza is the last thing the Israelis want to experience.”
Israeli military officials realize that it is impossible to liberate the prisoners militarily, but they are proceeding nonetheless under political pressure, despite the fact that the families of the prisoners, as well as the countries that have nationals among the prisoners, want an exchange deal. Netanyahu believes that such a deal would be a final acknowledgment of defeat and a victory for Hamas and the Palestinian resistance.
The cohesion of the resistance and the Israeli non-plan
Israeli public opinion fears that the war will be lost on two or more fronts, by failing to liberate or release the prisoners (about 60 of them have already been killed in Israeli raids) and by failure to dismantle the capabilities of the Hamas movement and the Palestinian resistance. Worse, a large number of soldiers will be killed, perhaps in the hundreds.
In contrast to the Israeli non-plan, following the painful military blow directed at Israel on the morning of October 7, the plan of Hamas and the resistance seems clear: stop the war, carry out a comprehensive prisoner exchange, and lift the siege of Gaza. The resistance is waging a war of attrition on the Israeli army, inflicting ever-increasing daily losses, and appears prepared for a long war to erode the elements of Israeli power.
Time is not on Israel’s side, as it loses more money, men, and legitimacy, its internal crisis worsens, and the pressures and doubts surrounding it increase, with the possibility of the situation exploding regionally. Instead it is on the side of the Palestinian resistance, which believes that all of these internal and external military and political pressures will ultimately make Israel yield and accept its terms.
In that case, the war would not only end with the defeat of Netanyahu, but also with the defeat of the far-right government and its racist program. Israeli society has increasingly rejected this government’s policies at all levels, and the war has proven that it cannot impose surrender on the Palestinian people despite the tragedies caused by Israeli crimes in Gaza, whose repercussions have made the international community wary and inclined to reject Israeli narratives.
Netanyahu’s predicament
The international community has begun to realize that the campaign launched by Benjamin Netanyahu on Gaza is nothing more than a series of horrific daily massacres against civilians that has not achieved any significant military breakthrough. The prognosis: Israel will be forced to submit to defeat under internal and external pressures. Already serious movements have begun from the international community to stop the war in the wake of the horror of ongoing Israeli massacres.
Nadav Eyal asserts in his article in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper that the Israeli army cannot be satisfied with the “image of victory” in its war on Gaza, and that the era of the policy of “mowing the grass” (reducing threats to an acceptable level) has ended. Instead, Israel needs a “real victory.” But this leaves Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a deeply distressing predicament
The main dilemma concerns Netanyahu himself, who does not want to come down from the heights of the tree into which he scrambled on the morning of October 7. He realizes that he is finished politically (due to Al-Aqsa Storm) yet dreams of a resurrection linked to the results of his campaign in Gaza.
Netanyahu and his war cabinet are acting impulsively under the influence of the shock of October 7, without a clear military plan for the war, which is mainly being fought as a mindless emotional reaction to the well-prepared resistance in Gaza. Israel lacks a clear plan to liberate or recover the prisoners, or to confront the huge and ever-escalating international protests, to the point that Netanyahu began addressing Israeli soldiers in Gaza with quotes from the Bible, telling them to “remember what Amalek did to you.” (Amalek represents the height of evil in Jewish tradition.) Netanyahu has used the Amalek reference more than once to motivate the Israeli army in its war against Gaza.
Netanyahu is accumulating losses on all fronts, trying to write off “Black Saturday,” ignoring that his leadership does not enjoy popular acceptance, and pretending not to notice Israel’s broken army, eroding economy, undermined international reputation, disintegrated home front, large daily military losses, and the United Nations’ condemnation of his crimes.
The “Israel-Has-No-Alternative” Myth
BY SAM HUSSEINI | OCTOBER 13, 2023
Many are claiming that Israel has no choice.
It has to bomb Gaza, there is no alternative.
In fact, Israel has a choice.
A clear choice.
To reflexively react and bomb Gaza amid massive propaganda before assessing the facts is deranged.
One clear fact is that Netanyahu promised security and he failed. Israelis of every political stripe should be fuming at him, as some are. Never mind for the moment that he had warning of the Hamas attacks and almost certainly wanted conflict.
The choice facing Israel is highlighted by this:
In 2004, bombings on commuter trains in Madrid killed over 190 people. The government was immediately voted out and a new government came in, swiftly got Spain out of Iraq and nothing like that has happened in Spain since.
But the lessons of the train bombings is memory holed and even falsified.
NPR’s Dina Temple-Raston reversed what happened, claiming after the Orlando shooting — which was also followed by a flood of lies — that after the bombings in Spain, “the more conservative candidate ended up winning.” (In NPR-speak, “conservative” means more pro-war.) Total propaganda.
The lesson is clear.
Netanyahu isn’t out to protect Israelis.
If he was, he would embrace peace.
You want to stop a group like Hamas from attacking you?
Solve the conflict.
Abide by international law.
Stop bombing people.
Repent for having expelled nonviolent activists.
Withdraw.
Agree to peace.
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I’ve been suspended by X/twitter, but you can now see my past material there. I’m also now posting on Gab.
Israel’s Hannibal Directive: Israeli Attack Will Likely Result in 120 Hostage Deaths
By Richard Silverstein | Tikun Olam | October 9, 2023
The latest Gaza death toll is 1,000 Israeli dead and 700 Palestinians. Hamas fighters continue to attack southern Israel and the IDF has conceded that it has not blocked all of the 22 sites where militants blew up its security fence. It also concedes that Palestinian fighters continue to enter Israel from them. The army also conceded that the Palestinian resistance inside Israel continues unabated.
Israel has called 300,000 reservists for active duty. Tens of thousands of troops are massing outside Gaza preparing to invade the enclave. IDF spokesperson, Jonathan Conricus declared that Israel will occupy Gaza and ensure Hamas will never again control it. To do so, Israel will have to reoccupy it and station thousands of troops. They in turn will be targeted by Hamas, which Israel cannot succeed in eradicating.
Israel occupied southern Lebanon for 20 years and lost hundreds of soldiers to Hezbollah attacks. Israeli occupation of Gaza would repeat the quagmire.
The Yassin mosque in Gaza, destroyed by IAF missiles (AP Photo/Adel Hana)
Bibi Netanyahu has threatened to turn Gaza to “rubble.” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has called Hamas “human animals” and denied Gazans food, water, electricity and fuel. This is collective punishment and forbidden under Geneva Convention. It is a war crime.
The International Criminal Court has already opened a file against Israel for alleged war crimes during the last major invasion in 2014.Then, it killed 2,300 Palestinians. The ICC has not yet agreed to open a formal investigation after several years of delay. The world awaits action. Holding war criminals accountable, whether Palestinian or Israeli, is critical to maintaining the credibility of international law. Israel is shredding it by the day.
Palestinian militant groups hold up to 120 Israelis hostage in Gaza. Netanyahu has not announced any effort to free them or exchange them for Palestinian prisoners. Instead, he speaks of all-out war. Hamas, on the other hand, has threatened to execute one hostage for every Palestinian killed or house destroyed.
Hamas says that it is detaining hostages in its underground tunnels. The IAF has already dropped bunker buster bombs to destroy them. If what Hamas says is true, then Israel is killing its own citizens. If it unleashes a full-scale exterminationist assault, then all the Israeli hostages will die. Either at the hands of Hamas, of from IDF assault.
This is reminiscent of the IDF’s Hannibal Directive, a policy calling for the killing of Israeli soldiers who fall captive to Palestinian militants. Israel prefers a dead soldier to a live one it will be forced to exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Israel’s imminent attack will likely kill its own citizens, and is a version of this horrible Directive. As this Haaretz makes clear, Netanyahu has no intent to negotiate for the hostages’ release. He has given them up for lost. Abandoned them. It’s a cynical, morally bankrupt approach characteristic of him.
The Biden administration has ordered a naval task force to the eastern Mediterranean and declared readiness to offer whatever weapons Israel needs to obliterate Gaza. Though meant as show of strength, it is really a confirmation of the impotence of Israeli policy. We claim to support a tw0-state solution. Yet we are accessories to mass murder of Palestinians. We are all-in for Israel. Palestine can go to hell (and it will, if the Israelis have anything to say about it).
Israel is an example of the worst of humanity. Of the depths of depravity to which our species can sink. Israel’s apologists raise bitter cries over the murder of children and women, while refusing to acknowledging that many times more Palestinian children and women have died under Israeli onslaught. As I said in an earlier post, this is terror for terror. Hamas declares that if every Palestinian is a legitimate target, then every Israeli will be as well. It is a cold, brutal calculation. But Israel has no monopoly on brutality. It will suffer what it metes out.
Palestinian operation puts Netanyahu between rock and hard place: Ex-diplomat
By Alireza Hashemi | Press TV | October 9, 2023
The military operation by the Palestinian resistance movement Hamas has placed the embattled Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu in a dilemma of whether to save his own political future or the illegitimate regime itself, says a former Iranian diplomat.
In an interview with the Press TV website, Abolfazl Zohrevand, a former Iranian ambassador to Afghanistan and Italy, said the Al-Aqsa Storm (also known as Al-Aqsa Flood) operation has put Netanyahu and his far-right cabinet between a rock and a hard place.
Hamas stunned the regime in Tel Aviv with a multi-pronged attack early Saturday, launching thousands of missiles into the occupied territories within a span of 20 minutes and at the same time launching a ground attack against Israeli settlements and military bases near the coastal strip.
The Israeli death toll is staggering, with some reports putting it at above 1,000, besides hundreds of others – soldiers and settlers – who are held as prisoners of war by Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Zohrevand said the Israeli regime can opt for a very tough response to the Palestinian resistance operation but such a response might lead to an existential threat to the regime.
“Israel can’t do much to punish the Palestinians through air strikes. Such strikes usually fail to hit Hamas’s underground infrastructure and only leave high civilian casualties,” he stated.
“Netanyahu has to start a ground invasion of Gaza, like what he did recently with the Jenin camp in the occupied West Bank,” the former diplomat said, referring to the July Israeli raid into the Jenin camp.
However, he hastened to add that such an operation could end in a humiliating defeat for the regime.
“If Israel decides to engage in a major operation, we should expect weeks-long clashes in the region. Israel isn’t made for long battles. Also, its military is not well prepared as the whole regime is in a state of chaos. The fact that it was caught completely off guard by the operation is a testimony to this,” Zohrevand stressed in a conversation with the Press TV website.
“On the other hand, Palestinians are prepared for such an invasion and they hold the upper hand as Gaza is their home. Palestinians are now sending a message that enough is enough. They’re highly motivated to fight the regime. So the odds for Israel’s success are not high.”
He said the Israeli military action would put the existence of the regime at risk.
“This war can easily spread to the West Bank and other regions. Also, there’s a real possibility that the regime might face a major operation by Lebanon’s Hezbollah. It’s really hard for the regime to handle two fronts. I personally believe the regime won’t start such an operation,” Zohrevand said.
Hamas has already said the operation will be extended to the West Bank.
The Lebanese movement Hezbollah has also staged attacks in solidarity with Palestinians, firing artillery shells and guided missiles at Israeli positions in the occupied Shebaa farms on Sunday.
The former Iranian diplomat noted that Netanyahu might want to accept mediation efforts by Turkey or Egypt and halt its ongoing operation, but that will put his political future in real danger.
“If he decides to stop the Israeli operation, his cabinet won’t last long as it is filled with extremist elements that came to power on a promise of crushing Palestinian resistance and annexing all the Palestinian lands once and forever,” he remarked.
“For Netanyahu, it boils down to a decision whether to save the regime or save his own cabinet or save the regime. He’s in a no-win situation.”
Netanyahu tries to secretly record meeting with US delegation
MEMO | September 8, 2022
Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu placed cameras in the room where he met with a delegation of US senators, without informing them beforehand that the meeting’s venue would have recording equipment, Israeli website Walla News reported.
A member of the American delegation noticed a video camera in the meeting room, which one of Netanyahu’s advisers had turned on while Netanyahu was holding a microphone in his hand.
The news site added that the US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides asked Netanyahu why he was holding a microphone, but Netanyahu tried to evade the question saying, “This is nothing.” But the ambassador and the senators were not convinced and asked for that recording equipment to be removed before the start of the meeting.
Walla cited sources as saying that Netanyahu wanted to record the meeting in order to use the footage in his campaign for the upcoming Knesset elections.
Israel is set to hold its fifth election in four years in October after the Knesset was dissolved in June.
Netanyahu shown the door, US pledges allegiance to new Israeli regime
Press TV – June 13, 2021
An Israeli political coalition narrowly wins a vote to oust Benjamin Netanyahu as the regime’s prime minister, with the US rushing to congratulate and pledge to cooperate with the new Israeli coalition.
The vote was held at Knesset (the Israeli parliament) on Sunday, Israeli paper The Jerusalem Post reported.
It was testing the chances of the recently formed coalition among members of the anti-Netanyahu camp at Knesset, most notably opposition figure Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party and the Yamina party headed by Naftali Bennett.
A single vote tipped the balance against Netanyahu, making the new coalition’s members and their relatives, who were standing by, to break into a paroxysm of joy.
Bennett was then sworn in as prime minister, ending Netanyahu’s unprecedented 12-year run on premiership. Bennett will hold the position on a rotational basis with Lapid.
However, ending Netanyahu’s winning streak did not prompt observers to start speculating about a potential change in either the occupying regime’s extremist policies or the United States’ changeless support for it despite its atrocities.
Bennett’s far-right lean has even made any prospect of change even less likely.
He has vowed not to let Palestinians have any state of their own and has also identified himself as a stiff opponent of a 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world countries, just like Netanyahu used to.
US President Joe Biden felicitated the new Israeli coalition “on behalf of the American people,” a White House statement read.
“I look forward to working with Prime Minister Bennett to strengthen all aspects of the close and enduring” bilateral ties, it noted, adding, “Israel has no better friend than the United States.”
It also hailed the US and the regime’s “shared values and decades of close cooperation” and Washington’s dedication to “Israel’s security.” The White House vowed to cooperate with the new officials concerning “Palestinians” and “the broader region.”
Under Washington’s protection Tel Aviv has escaped all attempts at holding it accountable for its occupation of the Palestinian territories and bloodshed of Palestinians. The regime has also avoided answering for its acts of terror throughout the region and beyond and its military nuclear program that is the only one in the Middle East.