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US-Iran ‘Calibrated Escalation’ Risks Sliding Into All-Out War – Expert

By Ekaterina Blinova – Sputnik – 08.05.2026

A “calibrated escalation” is likely to follow the overnight US-Iran clash in the Strait of Hormuz, veteran war correspondent Elijah J. Magnier tells Sputnik.

“Return to full-scale war remains possible, but neither side appears eager for an immediate all-out confrontation,” Magnier says.

“What is more likely in the near term is a continuation of calibrated escalation, which means maritime incidents, allies being attacked, cyber operations, targeted strikes, and limited exchanges designed to impose pressure without triggering a wider or regional war.”

Both sides assess different forms of leverage, according to the pundit:

  • The US can escalate vertically by deploying additional military forces and intensifying confrontation
  • Iran can escalate horizontally by widening pressure geographically and economically without engaging in direct confrontation
  • Both sides show restraint, but prolonged escalation increases the risk of miscalculation

“Therefore, one strike causing mass casualties, damage to strategic energy infrastructure, or a direct attack on senior leadership — such as targeted assassinations — could rapidly push both sides beyond the current threshold,” Magnier warns.

May 8, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , | Comments Off on US-Iran ‘Calibrated Escalation’ Risks Sliding Into All-Out War – Expert

Iran – End of the Drought & the Destruction of US Radar Installations in the Middle East

By Francis Goumain | Occidental Observor | May 7, 2026

Editor’s note: I have long resisted the climate manipulatioin idea but this seems convincing.

Below is an automated translation of an article from the French weekly RIVAROL, one of the last far-right publications in France, which is beset by lawsuits and has lost its press accreditation (and the tax advantages that came with it). It is a paper publication, but it can no longer appear on newsstands, so Rivarol has opted for the PDF format.

The article deals with a subject that we don’t see surfacing much in the American far-right press: drought and climate control as an already existing weapon, discreetly – but intensively – used by the Americans against Iran.

RIVAROL is not a scientific journal, but that being said, the facts are troubling and we must force our opponents to respond:

Why is it that the end of the Iranian drought coincides with the destruction of the ring of American radar installations in the Arabian Peninsula? Doesn’t this confirm what President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had already said long ago about manipulating climate to pursue political interests?

While Iran rains missiles down on its enemies, the rain returns to Iran. Coincidence?

§§§§§

Iran’s first victory against the climate conspiracy

AN ABNORMAL DROUGHT THAT DRAGGED ON

About fifteen years ago, the then-President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, repeatedly claimed that Western powers (under American influence) were “stealing” rain from Persia and much of the Middle East (including Iraq). Naturally, at that time, almost everyone in the West considered the strongman of Tehran a crackpot, a conspiracy theorist who, moreover, had the misfortune, it was assumed, of being a notorious historical revisionist.

Westerners continue to silence or deny what Mahmoud had calmly stated. In 2018, Iran officially accused the United Arab Emirates and Israel of stealing its rains, when the senior official of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali, declared: “Israel and another country are working together to prevent Iranian clouds from raining.”

The New York Times reported that the country Jalali did not name was the United Arab Emirates, which has launched a cloud seeding program by injecting chemicals into clouds in an attempt to induce rain in its favor, but also to prevent rainfall in Iran.

Today, however, many Middle Eastern elites are talking about the extreme drought and equally abnormal heat that have plagued the region for ages. We also recall that before the war against Iran, the country had suffered for years from a dramatic water shortage that directly endangered the people, especially the nation’s capital, whose inhabitants (and first and foremost the government) were ready to flee rather than become parched or dry out like old stones.

THE RETURN OF THE RAIN 

And then, suddenly, a miracle amidst the misfortunes! In Iran, the clouds finally wept, abundantly and regularly, and temperatures returned to normal (dropping by an average of five degrees Celsius). A few days after the first Iranian strikes against American bases located in the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere on the Arabian Peninsula, the regional climate changed completely.

Initially stunned, the population could observe over the following weeks the gradual filling of natural and reservoir lakes, the return of life to rivers, streams, and springs, the greening and re-greening of meadows, and the return of flora and fauna familiar from the past. In five or six weeks, enormous water reservoirs were filled, and large hydroelectric facilities had to release water to prevent overflows.

The authorities finally called on all Iranian farmers to sow as much wheat as possible and to plant without worry, since water would certainly not be lacking during the summer season. The return of a “normal” spring was not an accident, and this understanding is now shared by everyone in Tehran, Baghdad, and Afghanistan.

According to Iranian officials, including ambassadors (stationed in the greater region), this new rain that has nourished the land is not providential but the result of Iran’s bombings of the gigantic American radars which were simultaneously being used as HAARP systems, tools quite capable of locally modifying the climate.

The Iranian embassy in Kabul posted this unambiguous tweet: “Iran, after destroying a secret cloud seeding and climate manipulation center in the United Arab Emirates, saw everything change overnight. Once this secret center was destroyed, the region’s weather map completely reversed, and now it rains every week in Turkey, Iran, and Iraq, with temperatures dropping by 5 degrees. I don’t know if what they’re saying is true, but there’s a change that everyone is noticing, and temperatures in Iraq haven’t been like this for decades.”

Before the war, and Tehran’s audacious response, two major American activities were likely to alter the climate of the Middle East, not inadvertently but intentionally.

CHEMTRAILS AND WAVES

Until the outbreak of the conflict, military aircraft of the United States and their allies released daily, or several times a week (there are many testimonies on this point), trails which are aptly called chemtrails which covered the sky in a few hours with a milky coating generating a scientifically proven greenhouse effect.

Those with a bit of curiosity observe this same phenomenon in Europe and recall that the contrails left behind by all the planes in the last century lasted no more than a few dozen seconds. Never before had these contrails remained in our atmosphere for more than a minute; never had the sky turned whitish after a flurry of flights. Never.

This has been the case regularly since the 2000s, particularly since the deadly heatwave of 2003. Summers have been hotter, all seasons have suddenly been hotter, sometimes extraordinarily dry, to the point of a telluric change in some regions which has caused the fracturing of tens of thousands of houses built on clay soil.

Most of the hundreds of thousands of daily flights around the world do not produce chemtrails. Just a few hundred aircraft (not commercial airliners, of course) are enough to locally alter the climate, here or there, and cause temperatures to skyrocket. Keen observers will have noticed that these trails crisscross the sky in very calm weather, when their sponsors are certain they won’t be too widely dispersed and therefore ineffective.

As unpleasant as they may be, heat waves, droughts, and mild winters are messages meant for the brainwashed Westerners. They must admit that everything is out of whack because of their own activities, that the Earth is dying because of the carbon dioxide they emit with their diesel cars, their gas boilers, their incessant flatulence, and their horrendous meat-based diet.

The message is crystal clear: you small-time European consumers, you see the damage you’re causing, you careless fools! There are no seasons anymore, you bunch of idiots! The carp have no oxygen in the ponds, the trout have no current in the rivers, the grass is yellow in June, Grandma is suffocating in July, we’re dying of heat in Nantes, everything’s gone to hell. Scrap your gas-powered car, scrap your gas appliances, buy an electric car or a heat pump as soon as you can, install solar panels, demand the energy transition for everyone!

THE IRANIAN TARGET

In the Middle East, there was no message. No one was urging its inhabitants to abandon oil and internal combustion engines. Iran and its surrounding regions were simply a target. A target to be weakened, starved, and destabilized. So that only discontent could flourish, so that hatred against the regime could explode. In addition to the countless economic sanctions imposed upon it, Iran had thus been the target of climate attacks for many years.

For decades, military scientists have known how to dry out and heat entire regions by dusting their airspace with tiny metallic particles (aluminum and others) and water vapor. These particles are agitated by radar waves (which travel at the speed of light) and thus heat up. This temperature increase at the core of the clouds prevents the suspended water from freezing, thus preventing precipitation.

By preventing the movement of crop-dusting aircraft and by neutralizing giant radars (by destroying them), Iran has freed itself (momentarily?) from this “climate” trap.


BETWEEN CONSPIRACY AND CONSPIRACY THEORIES, A TRAP AGAINST IRAN

Tehran, long convinced of the existence of this plot orchestrated by the American-Zionist axis, could not, however, intervene sooner. It would have had to attack both the Americans and the United Arab Emirates first. And no one, apart from the Iranian elite and those in the know, would have believed the motive for its attack: a return to normalcy.

In its self-defense, the Persian regime was able to destroy the massive radar systems in a seemingly, ostensibly, rational move. It was the radars themselves that were eliminated, not radars also used as instruments projecting microwaves to deplete Iran’s resources. The damning accusation of conspiracy could not be leveled against it.

By holding out for so long, by resisting for so long the sanctions and social unrest orchestrated by the enemy, by enduring for so long this extraordinary drought, Iran has won the battle against “conspiracy theories” by avoiding appearing as one of its most obsessive proponents.

We know that Iran quite legitimately believed in this conspiracy, but a war waged to officially combat it would not have been accepted by everyone in a world saturated in the media (even outside the West) and the demonization of “conspiracy theories.” Climate warfare could have brought Iran to its knees, but it was its enemy, who needed this war (which it tried by all means to provoke), who struck first. This is Iran’s greatest success to date.

Nevertheless, it is difficult to believe that the American-Zionist axis has surrendered in this war. Is it trying, or will it try, to rebuild radars designed to manipulate the climate in the same way, or will it use other radars located on other continents? Will it use drones to spray its chemical potion? In short, is the climate war truly over?

If it is not already doing so, Iran now has every interest in communicating on this issue so that it is taken seriously by people around the world. A difficult but vital task.

François-Xavier ROCHETTE.

Francis Goumain Adaptation.

Contact Rivarol : Éditions des Tuileries, 19 avenue d’Italie, 75013 Paris.

May 8, 2026 Posted by | Deception, Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Science and Pseudo-Science, Timeless or most popular, Wars for Israel | , , , , , | Comments Off on Iran – End of the Drought & the Destruction of US Radar Installations in the Middle East

Iran blasts US ceasefire violations, says Washington trapped in ‘self-created quagmire’

Press TV – May 8, 2026

Iran’s Foreign Ministry has strongly condemned US acts of aggression against Iranian oil tankers and coastal infrastructure, describing the attacks as a blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement.

The US military attacked two Iranian oil tankers near the port of Jask and the Strait of Hormuz late Thursday and early Friday, while also carrying out attacks on several coastal sites overlooking the strategic waterway.

The assaults were met with a “powerful response and a heavy slap” from the Iranian Armed Forces, the ministry said in a statement on Friday.

The enemies, it said, failed to achieve their “illegitimate objectives.”

The minister said the aggression has clearly violated a ceasefire agreement reached between Tehran and Washington in early April.

It also condemned contradictory conduct and inflammatory rhetoric by US officials, saying the Trump administration’s actions reveal “desperation, confusion, and a deep inability” to find a way out of its “self-created quagmire.”

Reiterating Iran’s determination to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, the ministry called on the UN Security Council and the Secretary-General to fulfill their responsibilities in safeguarding international peace and security.

It also warned that any UN “indifference or appeasement” toward Washington’s “lawlessness and rogue behavior” would carry dangerous consequences.

Recent events, it added, have made it clear that the US military presence in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman “has not contributed to regional stability or security; rather, it has itself become a source of insecurity with far-reaching regional and global consequences.”

The ministry also reiterated Iran’s commitment to a policy of good neighborliness and respect for the sovereignty of regional states, urging countries in West Asia to work toward a regional security mechanism based on collective trust and free from foreign intervention.

In response to the assault on Iranian tankers and civilian areas on Qeshm Island, Iran’s naval forces struck US destroyers with cruise missiles and combat drones near the Strait of Hormuz.

Hours later, Donald Trump claimed that the ceasefire was still in effect and sought to play down the exchange.

Intelligence monitoring conducted after Iran’s retaliatory strike, however, confirmed “significant damage” to American military assets.

With a pointed message directed at Washington and its regional allies, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Baghaei later wrote in a post on X that “they see a lion’s fangs bared; do not assume the lion is smiling.”

May 8, 2026 Posted by | Wars for Israel | , , | Comments Off on Iran blasts US ceasefire violations, says Washington trapped in ‘self-created quagmire’

Prof Marandi Warns: Blockade stays Until Israel Withdraws!

Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – May 7, 2026

May 7, 2026 Posted by | Video, Wars for Israel | , , , , , , | Comments Off on Prof Marandi Warns: Blockade stays Until Israel Withdraws!

Iranian forces strike US vessels in swift retaliation for tanker attack: Top military commander

Press TV – May 7, 2026

A spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said on Thursday that Iranian forces gave an immediate and decisive response to a series of US military aggressions in the strategic waters of the Strait of Hormuz and along the country’s southern coastline.

In a statement, Ebrahim Zolfaghari noted that the “aggressive, terrorist, and outlaw” US military, in violation of a ceasefire, targeted an Iranian oil tanker.

The vessel was transiting from Iran’s coastal waters in the Jask region, heading towards the Strait of Hormuz.

In a separate but simultaneous incident, another Iranian ship came under attack while entering the Strait of Hormuz, directly opposite the UAE’s Fujairah port.

Concurrent with these fresh acts of aggression, the spokesperson said that US forces, operating in coordination with certain countries in the region, launched airstrikes against civilian areas in the coastal provinces.

These aerial attacks reportedly targeted locations along the coasts of Bandar Khamir, Sirik, and Qeshm Island.

According to the statement, Iran’s response was immediate and decisive.

The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran launched a swift counterattack, engaging US military vessels east of the Strait of Hormuz and south of the port of Bandar Chabahar.

The Iranian operation inflicted “significant damage” on the American warships, he said.

The spokesperson warned that the “criminal and aggressive” US and its allies must recognize that the Islamic Republic of Iran will, as it has in the past, deliver a crushing response to any act of aggression or violation “powerfully and without the slightest hesitation.”

Earlier, media reports said Iranian naval and missile forces had delivered a swift and precise response to yet another act of US aggression in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing American vessels to flee after sustaining damage.

A senior Iranian military official confirmed to IRIB on Thursday night that, following the unprovoked attack by US military aircraft on an Iranian oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, attacking enemy units in the Strait of Hormuz came under intense Iranian missile fire.

The aggressor forces suffered direct hits and were compelled to retreat in disarray.

It comes a day after US President Donald Trump suspended the so-called ‘Project Freedom’ after just 48 hours, which was aimed at forcing open the Strait of Hormuz.

It marked another humiliating retreat from the American side in the past few months.

May 7, 2026 Posted by | Wars for Israel | , | Comments Off on Iranian forces strike US vessels in swift retaliation for tanker attack: Top military commander

US Superpower Myth Shattered w/ Trita Parsi

Rumble
The Duran | May 6, 2026 
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https://x.com/tparsi
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Iran has achieved what almost no country has managed in the post-Cold War era, a strategic defeat of the United States military without being knocked out on the first punch. In a landmark conversation on The Duran, Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou sit down with Trita Parsi to dissect exactly how America’s 40-year obsession with finding a “silver bullet” against Iran has brought Washington to its weakest position in the Middle East since 1979. Parsi argues that the naval blockade of Iran sold to Trump as the final pressure tool that would force capitulation was built on dangerously flimsy analysis, and that the window for Trump to negotiate a genuine exit and spin it as a win is rapidly closing. From Iran’s nuclear calculus and the prospect of a grand bargain replacing the JCPOA, to the long-term unraveling of the American security umbrella across the Gulf states, this episode maps out the tectonic shift now reshaping the global order. The question is no longer whether US primacy in the Middle East is ending it’s whether Washington will recognize it in time to leave on its own terms.

May 7, 2026 Posted by | Video, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on US Superpower Myth Shattered w/ Trita Parsi

Iran War Reality BITES – SPIN HARDER /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Mario Nawfal

Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – May 6, 2026

Trump: “Iran Will Submit, We Won the War” /Lt Col Daniel Davis

May 6, 2026 Posted by | Video, Wars for Israel | , , , | Comments Off on Iran War Reality BITES – SPIN HARDER /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Mario Nawfal

British journalist faces ‘anti-terror probe’ after Iran visit, reporting on US-Israeli crimes

Press TV – May 6, 2026

In a politically motivated move, a UK-based independent journalist and activist faces an “anti-terror probe” after her recent visit to Iran, where she reported on post-war developments, including massive rallies against the US-Israeli war coalition.

Observers say the move punishes legitimate political expression as the UK government seeks to silence dissenting voices critical of the unprovoked war against the Islamic Republic.

Bushra Shaikh, a British media personality who has been vocal about the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran as well as the ongoing genocide in Gaza, has been referred to the Metropolitan Police’s Counter-Terrorism Command over a speech she delivered at a rally in Iran during her recent visit.

The referral, which comes just days after her return from the Islamic Republic, has raised serious concerns about the UK government weaponizing “anti-terror” laws to target individuals whose political views diverge from its stance on West Asia developments.

In a video shared online, Shaikh was seen addressing a rally in Iran, in which she expressed her solidarity with the people of Iran and condemned the aggression against them.

During the rally, flags of regional resistance movements, including Hezbollah, were seen.

Within hours of the post going live, a formal complaint was lodged with Scotland Yard, as reported by British media, alleging that Shaikh may have breached the Terrorism Act, which criminalizes “inviting support” for a banned group.

The report further claimed a potential violation of the National Security Act’s new Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS), which requires individuals acting under the direction of a foreign power to register their political activities.

“Any allegations relating to possible terrorism or national security-related offences will be passed to officers within Counter Terrorism Policing, who will assess the details and take any further action as appropriate,” the Met Police was quoted as saying.

During her visit to Iran, as part of a foreign media delegation invited by the Sobh Media Center, Shaikh visited many cities and interacted with victims of the recent war.

She also interviewed government officials, including foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei and chairman of the parliament’s foreign policy and internal security commission Ebrahim Azizi, which she also shared on her social media platforms.

In the recent past, many British journalists, activists and academics have faced draconian charges in their country after visiting Iran to attend conferences or media festivals, including the Sobh International Media Festival, organized by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) World Service.

May 6, 2026 Posted by | Civil Liberties, Full Spectrum Dominance | , , | Comments Off on British journalist faces ‘anti-terror probe’ after Iran visit, reporting on US-Israeli crimes

Trump’s ’Project Freedom’ just got blown out of the water. What now?

By Martin Jay | Strategic Culture Foundation | May 6, 2026

The escalation trap seems to be pulling Donald Trump deeper and deeper into the quicksand of the Iran war. Following Iran’s strike on a UAE oil terminal, Trump has had to back down and “pause” his plan to create a military escort that would chaperone oil tankers through the Straits of Hormuz. Project Freedom, according to the president’s own social media posts, has been suspended before it even started as Trump struggles to find more smoke-and-mirror tactics to fool a gullible American public that the war in Iran has been “won”. Eight times, in fact.

But it’s easy to see how Trump is getting pulled about by various players and may still be clinging onto the idea of some sort of military manoeuvre in the Persian Gulf. I have previously speculated that I don’t believe he will launch a second strike, but an attempt at landing on an island and installing US soldiers there must still be something he is considering. And since the Iranian strike on the UAE, something extraordinary has happened that will now lodge this idea further in his head—that such a plan might work. The UAE just went out on a limb and beefed up its relations to a whole new level with Israel, even beyond the special status it had as being the Zionist entity’s only solid partner in the entire GCC. After the strike on its oil terminal, news flooded social media that the UAE was planning a retaliatory strike and has teamed up militarily with Israel. This is significant on many levels, as not only does it create a clear dividing line between itself and other GCC countries that would like to make a statement to Iran that they are not its enemy, but it also positions the UAE as a major target for Tehran, and so the move is incredibly risky, if not foolish for its elite in Abu Dhabi. It is almost as though they are prepared to destroy everything the country has accomplished in fifty years as an economic miracle of the entire region just to make the point that signing the Abraham Accords was, in fact, not an egregious error on their part. Israel or nothing.

And so the strategy of Israel is shifting from convincing America that it needs to take huge collateral losses, both militarily and in terms of human life, to now convincing the UAE. But do Abu Dhabi’s rulers have the guts to take on Iran head-on? Can they take the losses of life and the destruction of their infrastructure that is inevitable? One can only imagine that the Israelis have turned on the charm and sweet-talked its rulers into the fantasy zone that Trump was dragged into. Perhaps Trump himself has played a minor but important role as well, as it cannot be a coincidence that just a week earlier he commented to journalists that the US should consider compensating the UAE for the damage caused by Iran’s strikes. Of course all this is linked, and we shouldn’t consider it a coincidence that the UAE has just made the decision on a capricious whim.

Trump’s idea of taking an island in the Persian Gulf and the UAE now making a military alliance with Israel are all part of the same doomed blueprint, which must be bringing new levels of joy to Tehran, whose leaders can hardly believe their luck. They will be thinking, “We’ll destroy Dubai and Abu Dhabi and then watch their rulers beg for mercy, while the whole GCC gives in to whatever demands we have, including rule over the straits.”

Trump’s idea of taking an island is probably his most stupid yet and may well be the brainchild of Israel’s military planners. It’s dumb on so many levels, but it’s easy to see how it is appealing in that it is feasible to install US troops on one of the many islands the UAE claims Iran took from them. Iran would probably allow the operation to go ahead anyway, as allowing the US to install itself on an island would be the perfect way to hold them hostage. Even from a logistical point of view the idea is doomed. It is one thing to put US troops on an island but quite another to supply them. The Iranians could simply block US ships and planes supplying them once they are there and have set up their base. Troops need food, water, and equipment just to function. The military planners who came up with the idea are probably thinking that such an island could be a base to launch operations from, but have not figured that Iran will be one step ahead and will not allow the second part of this plan to bear fruit. And so the island idea will blow up in the faces of those who signed it off, as the soldiers will effectively be hostages to be paraded on social media platforms every day while it is Iran, out of an act of decency, who will be feeding them—unless Tehran is so enraged by a strike on its energy infrastructure that it decides to kill them all to send a message to the US and Israel. It’s all madness. But the problem with such madness having got to this stage is that the only solution seems to be more madness. Trump, Israel, and now the UAE are all fighting fire with fire, and ironically it is the UAE—the only country in the region that had, at one point, quite cordial relations with Iran—that could have been the diplomatic conduit to finding a peaceful solution. The UAE, which has a huge Iranian community in Dubai, could have been the one country to have stopped the madness and to have brokered peace given its unique relations with both Israel and Iran, and yet it chose not to. This is the escalation trap, as Professor Bob Pape calls it, and it just took its latest victim in Abu Dhabi.

May 6, 2026 Posted by | Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Trump’s ’Project Freedom’ just got blown out of the water. What now?

US, Iran inching closer toward one-page MoU to end war: Axios

Al Mayadeen | May 6, 2026

The White House believes it is approaching an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and establishing a framework for more detailed nuclear talks, Axios reported, citing two US officials and two additional sources briefed on the matter.

The United States is expecting Iranian responses on several key points within the next 48 hours, the sources added. While no agreement has been finalized, they indicated that this represents the closest the parties have come to a deal since the US and “Israel” launched their war on Iran in February 2026.

The proposed memorandum includes provisions under which Iran would commit to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, while the United States would agree to lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides would also remove restrictions affecting transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, many of the outlined terms remain contingent on reaching a final agreement, leaving open the possibility of a renewed war or a prolonged interim phase in which active fighting ceases without a comprehensive resolution.

In a similar vein to the Axios report, a Pakistani source involved in the Islamabad talks confirmed to Reuters that Washington and Tehran are closing in on a one-page memo to end the US-Israeli war on Iran.

“We will close this very soon. We are getting close,” the source told Reuters.

Shehbaz Sharif hails ‘momentum’

Commenting on the situation, Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif asserted that “Pakistan remains firmly committed to supporting all efforts that promote restraint and a peaceful resolution of conflicts through dialogue and diplomacy.

In a post on X, he wrote: “We are very hopeful that the current momentum will lead to a lasting agreement that secures durable peace and stability for the region and beyond.

The prime minister of Pakistan also thanked US President Donald Trump for halting the so-called “Project Freedom”, which aimed to provide “safe” maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to counter Iran’s closure.

“I am grateful to President Donald Trump for his courageous leadership and timely announcement regarding the pause in Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz,” he stated.

He emphasized that Trump’s agreement to halt the project, on the request of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other “brotherly countries”, will serve “advancing regional peace, stability, and reconciliation during this sensitive period.”

Inside the high-stakes draft deal talks

Behind the scenes, the proposed one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) is being negotiated by envoys of Donald Trump, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, alongside several Iranian officials, both through direct contacts and intermediaries, according to Axios.

In its current form, the draft MOU would formally declare an end to the war in the region and initiate 30 days of negotiations aimed at reaching a detailed agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iran’s nuclear program, and lifting US sanctions.

Those follow-up negotiations are expected to take place in either Islamabad or Geneva, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.

During the 30-day window, Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the strait, along with the US naval blockade, would be gradually eased, a US official said. However, the same official noted that if talks collapse, US forces would retain the option to reinstate the blockade or resume military operations.

Details of nuclear file included in MoU

The duration of a proposed moratorium on uranium enrichment remains a central sticking point in negotiations, with terms still being actively debated, according to Axios. Three sources indicated the pause would last at least 12 years, while another suggested 15 years as a likely compromise. Iran has proposed a five-year moratorium, while the United States has pushed for a 20-year halt.

Washington is also seeking to include a provision that would extend the moratorium in the event of any Iranian violation, a source said. Under the current framework, Iran would be permitted to resume enrichment at low levels of 3.67% once the moratorium expires. Additionally, Iran would commit to never pursuing a nuclear weapon or engaging in weaponization-related activities, according to a US official. Discussions are also underway regarding a clause that would prohibit Iran from operating underground nuclear facilities.

The draft MoU further includes provisions requiring Iran to accept an enhanced inspections regime, including snap inspections by the United Nations, according to a US official. In parallel, the United States would commit to gradually lifting sanctions and releasing billions of dollars in Iranian funds currently frozen abroad.

Despite this, Iran has repeatedly affirmed that the current talks are solely focused on ending the war, rejecting claims by US officials that the nuclear file is being discussed in the ongoing talks.

Additionally, two informed sources claimed to Axios that Iran would agree to remove its enriched uranium from the country, to be stored in another country, with the United States being one option. Iran has repeatedly rejected such a term, emphasizing that it has no plans to transfer its uranium to any other country, even allies.

Iran denies nuclear talks are ongoing in talks with US

Provisions related to halting uranium enrichment for 15 years, determining the fate of 60% enriched uranium, and the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz were included in an earlier US proposal submitted around 20 days ago, but were firmly rejected by Iran, according to Fars News Agency.

On May 2, the agency reported that Washington has since revised its proposal three times, noting that Tehran did not accept any of the earlier drafts in principle. It added that the latest US proposal, consisting of nine articles, omits several of the previously circulated conditions, as US officials recognized Iran would not agree to them.

According to the report, Iran’s counterproposal does not include acceptance of a long-term suspension of uranium enrichment or the opening of the Strait of Hormuz prior to a final agreement, underscoring Tehran’s position that such measures cannot precede a comprehensive deal.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran’s plan to end the war is solely focused on halting hostilities, rejecting media reports suggesting nuclear commitments or maritime security arrangements. Speaking to state television, he stated that “some of the issues being raised relate to the record of previous negotiations with the United States,” emphasizing that Iran’s 14-point proposal centers on ending the war.

Baghaei further stressed that “at this stage, we have no nuclear negotiations,” underscoring that the current proposal does not include any nuclear-related topics, in contrast to claims circulating in international media.

May 6, 2026 Posted by | Wars for Israel | , , , | Comments Off on US, Iran inching closer toward one-page MoU to end war: Axios

Trump’s Self-Serving Narrative Crashes Against the Reality of War

By Ted Snider | The Libertarian Institute | May 6, 2026

Within a few days at the end of March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky made two claims. He revealed that Russia had given him two months to withdraw all forces from areas still under its control in Donbas, or Russia would take it by force and change the terms of the settlement. Russia said that was not true.

And he said that the United States had conditioned security guarantees on Ukraine withdrawing from Donbas. “That’s a lie,” U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio said. “I don’t know why he says these things; they’re just not true.”

That Zelensky was constructing a false narrative about the war does not bother him because he is not trying to reflect reality; he is trying to reshape reality. With Russia’s military acquisition of Donbas appearing increasingly inevitable, American peace plans conceding it, and Ukrainians increasingly accepting it, Zelensky’s survival depends on crafting a narrative in which he did not betray the nationalists or his promise but had no choice but to surrender Donbas because he was forced by both his enemy and his supporter.

In another war, in another part of the world, another president is doing the same thing. All Iran has to do to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said last week is to “cry uncle, that’s all they have to do. Just say, ‘We give up.” It doesn’t matter if they really give up: they just have to say it.

Trump’s team is crafting a narrative that provides them with an off ramp to a war they have lost that tells the story of a war they have won.

The U.S. had no legal reason for its war on Iran, and what publicly stated reasons they had were forever shifting. But there seem to have been four key goals:

  1. Regime change.
  2. Removing Iran’s ballistic missile program.
  3. Severing Iran from its forward deterrent network, or proxies.
  4. Zero enrichment of uranium.

Trump has repeatedly identified regime change as a key goal of the war. He has called for it, and he has explicitly said it is “time to look for new leadership in Iran.” The promised change in regime did not occur. The narrative response to that reality has taken two forms. First, Trump simply rewrote history and said regime change was never the goal: “regime change was not our goal. We never said regime change.”

Second, Trump and his team simply continuously repeated that there had been regime change when there had not, as if saying it made it so. Aboard Air Force One on March 30, Trump told reporters that “We’ve had regime change.” One week later, he posted that “we have Complete and Total Regime Change.”

There has been no regime change. Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the regime underwent a seamless transition to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, though he was specifically declared unacceptable by Trump. That is the opposite of regime change; that is regime continuity. Mojtaba Khamenei is a hardliner who was a close advisor to his father. He has been a core part of the regime, and his selection represents a preservation of, and not a change from, the regime.

Other new leaders who replaced the old, assassinated leaders, also represent regime continuity and survival. Ali Larijani’s replacement as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, is a former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps who has served in government since the days of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He is very close to Mojtaba Khamenei and has always been aligned with the hardliners in the political establishment.

When you spend $25-35 billion, destroy a country, kill thousands of people, devastate the environment, damage the United Nations, discredit international law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and irreparably wound relations with your European and NATO allies to bring about a regime change that never materialized, just say it did. You might remember another U.S. administration in another U.S. war, saying “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality.”

As part of his checklist of goals that have been accomplished by the war, Donald Trump has repeatedly included that Iran’s “missiles are just about used up or beaten.” Trump says Iran’s military has been “beaten and completely decimated.” Secretary of War Pete Hegseth says Iran’s ballistic missile program has been “functionally destroyed.” That’s not true.

Many of Iran’s missile stockpiles were protected deep underground and were untouched by American strikes. Some that were struck were actually dummy decoys. Many of the ballistic missile launchers that were hit were repaired and reactivated within hours. Hegseth now concedes that Iran is “digging out” its struck missiles and launchers. U.S. intelligence and the military assess that Iran still has at least 60% of its missile launchers, nearly half of its missiles, and 40% of its attack drones.

And they are very capable of hitting their targets and doing damage. U.S. bases in the region suffered a degree of damage thought unthinkable before the war and have been rendered uninhabitable. Radar systems, air defense systems, and aircraft were damaged and destroyed. And recent reporting reveals that the actual damage they sustained far exceeds what has been reported.

The reality falls far short of the narrative and calls into question, not just the claim that the U.S. has won this war, but its ability to win a future war against a real power, like China.

The Trump team’s narrative has consistently told a tale of Iran’s forward deterrent network of proxies being “crushed,” amputating Iran’s ability to reach into the region. Contrary to the narrative, the surprising reality is that Iran’s proxies and partners have survived and are far more resilient, capable and integrated than the United States believed. Hezbollah has launched sophisticated missiles that the U.S. believed they no longer possessed at a rate greater than they have ever launched before. Iraqi militias are launching drone strikes on U.S. bases in the region. The Houthis entered the war and launched several barrages of missiles, some carried out in coordination with Iranian missile strikes.

The primary goal of the war on Iran was the final death of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. “There will never be a deal unless they agree that there will never be nuclear weapons,” Trump said again last week.

That nuclear narrative is the central lie in the justification of the war. Iran has never pursued a nuclear weapon. Washington knows that. The 2022 U.S. Department of Defense Nuclear Posture Review concluded that “Iran does not today possess a nuclear weapon and we currently believe it is not pursuing one.” That assessment was repeated in the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment that clearly states that U.S. intelligence “continue[s] to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.” As recently as March 18, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told a Senate Intelligence Committee that since the June bombings, “there has been no efforts [sic]…to try to rebuild their enrichment capability.” All Iran has done is insist on their right—like so many other countries—as a signatory to the NPT to enrich uranium for civilian purposes. And that is all they have ever done.

Trump was handed a mechanism for ensuring Iran could never build a nuclear bomb in the form of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement, which Iran was honoring and which was working. Trump was the author of the current problem because he illegally pulled out of the agreement.

There has been zero progress in negotiations toward forcing Iran to terminate its civilian enrichment program. As at the start of the war, the right to enrich continues to be an absolute red line for Iran.

Trump’s vocabulary alters the narrative. The most concerning 970 pounds of 60% highly enriched uranium is rendered insignificant by renaming it “nuclear dust.”

Trump’s narrative not only renders the highly enriched uranium insignificant, it renders it irrelevant. He doesn’t really care about it because it is “so far underground,” the Americans can watch it, and the Iranians can’t get it. “I had one goal,” Trump said, “They will have no nuclear weapon, and that goal has been attained.”

At times, Iran’s enriched uranium is insignificant, at times it is irrelevant, and at other times it is resolved. According to Trump’s narrative, Iran has already agreed to hand over all of its enriched uranium. “They’ve agreed to give us back the nuclear dust,” he said. The reality, of course, is that, though Trump says it, Iran has agreed to no such thing.

Iran still possesses a quantity of its enriched uranium. More importantly, it still possesses advanced scientific knowledge of how to enrich uranium and the legal right to do so. Most importantly, despite starving sanctions and the most lethal bombing the U.S. can deliver, protecting its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes remains a redline that the U.S. has been unable to erase.

That is the reality. The rest is fiction: a narrative fiction crafted by Trump’s team to give them a way to tell an angry and betrayed public that they won the war when none of the goals—and all of the nightmares—have been achieved.

Though it may have cost $40-50 billion and used up half of its critical munitions, it is not a war but an “excursion.” Aspects of operation “Epic Fury” are rebranded for a public that is no longer buying it as “Project Freedom.”

And in an act of outrageous sophistry, it turns out that none of this matters because there isn’t a war. Seeking to circumvent the demand of the War Powers Resolution to receive permission from Congress to wage war after sixty days of troops being deployed, On May 1, Trump notified Congress that “hostilities” against Iran “have terminated.” Erase Trump’s threats, and the ships, aircraft and tens of thousand of troops in the region. Erase the fact that the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is an act of war under international law and that the U.S. fired on an Iranian flagged ship only days ago. Erase that the day before, Trump was briefed by CENTCOM on new plans for potential military action against Iran and that, days later, U.S. forces sank seven Iranian boats.

This is reality. But the reality is erased by a narrative fiction crafted by the Trump team in which the war is over because they define it as over. So, none of this matters any longer because the war is over.

This article was originally delivered as a speech at the West Suburban Peace Coalition Educational Forum on May 4, 2026.

May 6, 2026 Posted by | Deception, Wars for Israel | , , , | Comments Off on Trump’s Self-Serving Narrative Crashes Against the Reality of War

‘Project Freedom’ perishes in 48 hours as Trump retreats under the wall of Iran’s asymmetric deterrence

Press TV | May 6, 2026

In a dramatic and entirely predictable turn of events, US President Donald Trump early on Wednesday announced the immediate suspension of “Project Freedom,” the high-stakes naval offensive launched 48 hours ago with the stated goal of forcing open the Strait of Hormuz.

This is not an isolated tactical pause, as he wants the world to believe, but the third strategic retreat by the United States in less than a month – a sequence of capitulations that reveals a profound and irreversible shift in the balance of power in the Persian Gulf.

The first retreat was the ceasefire following the devastating 40-day full-scale war against Iran, in which the US-Israeli war machine failed to achieve even a single strategic objective.

The second retreat was the unilateral extension of that ceasefire after the first round of Islamabad negotiations. The third, and most telling, is the suspension of an operation whose very continuation would have inevitably reignited full-scale Iranian retaliation.

At its core, this decision exposes a singular, undeniable truth: Trump has belatedly realized that he holds no cards, no good options, no viable coalition, and no appetite for the catastrophic confrontation to challenge Iran’s legal sovereignty over the strategic waterway

The quiet abandonment of the so-called “Project Freedom” is not a strategic pivot, but a crushing defeat. It marks yet another failure for the US war machine, following closely on the heels of the 40-day war imposed on the Islamic Republic, and confirms that the era of unilateral American naval intimidation in the Persian Gulf is effectively over.

The immediate and decisive Iranian response

The suspension of the so-called “Project Freedom” was not born of American goodwill, but of raw, immediate, and overpowering Iranian military deterrence.

Within hours of its commencement 48 hours ago, Iran’s armed forces delivered a response that was as calculated as it was lethal in its messaging. Serious warning shots were directed squarely at US warships – a level of direct confrontation that Washington has historically sought to avoid.

Furthermore, the targeting of a South Korean vessel that violated the new maritime rules defined by the Islamic Republic served as an unambiguous signal: Iran will enforce its sovereign rights with kinetic action. Finally, a clear and serious ultimatum issued to the United Arab Emirates shattered any illusion that the war could be contained to international waters.

Iran showed that it will not cower under the shadow of American airpower. It is fully prepared for, and in some ways inviting, a decisive engagement. The message was unmistakable: Iran would not merely defend the Strait of Hormuz, but it would hunt aggressors within it.

The speed and severity of this response forced the war hawks in the Pentagon into a defensive crouch, demonstrating that the threshold for Iranian retaliation is far lower – and far more dangerous – than Washington had anticipated.

Perhaps the most ingenious move was the sudden, asymmetric expansion of the war’s geography. Extension of the definition of the Strait of Hormuz to encompass the entire territory of the UAE, specifically designating the port of Fujairah as lying within the Strait’s operational limits, is deemed a masterstroke of strategic redefinition.

For the US and its allies, this has come as an unexpected shock. The port of Fujairah, located on the Gulf of Oman outside the narrow choke point of the Strait of Hormuz, had long been considered a secure fallback. But the dynamics have changed now.

The impotence of American intimidation

The 48 hours of the doomed “Project Freedom” laid bare a critical strategic reality: America has completely lost its ability to intimidate Iran. The torrent of threats that emanated from Washington – warnings of “unmatched force” and “severe consequences” – landed on Tehran with the weight of a spent cartridge.

For Iran’s armed forces, American threats, regardless of their hyperbolic grandeur, no longer constitute actionable intelligence and execution. They are now understood as little more than psychological operations and media theater.

With this premature suspension, the US implicitly confessed that it still fears the risk of re-entering a war with Iran, particularly after the harrowing experience of the 40-day war.

This fear is not abstract but rooted in the traumatic memory of Iran’s deadly strikes against American forces and their allies during those 40 days, impacts whose full scale and intensity remain deliberately under-disclosed by the Pentagon.

The psychological scar tissue from those engagements is so deep that Washington has been forced to abandon all its prior claims regarding “Epic Fury.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the operation had ended – without anything in hand.

That campaign is effectively over. The US has declared, through its actions, that it will not risk a conventional military exchange with an Iran that has proven willing to draw blood. The credibility of American military threats has essentially evaporated.

The Pakistani intermediary – A pretext for surrender

Perhaps the most humiliating detail of this episode is the official reason offered for the suspension of the 48-hour offensive. According to Trump’s own social media post, the decision to halt “Project Freedom” came in response to a request from the army chief of Pakistan.

Let that sink in. A self-styled “superpower,” possessing the largest and most technologically advanced navy in history, abandons a prestigious military operation – one framed as vital to global energy security – at the behest of a foreign military commander.

This transparent pretext reveals two deeper truths. First, the US is in a state of urgent, almost frantic, need for negotiations with Iran. As became evident during Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s recent trip to Pakistan, the Americans are not just open to talks, but they are counting the moments to re-engage.

Second, the Trump administration is willing to seize upon the smallest request from any intermediary – even one as peripheral as a Pakistani general – to manufacture an exit ramp from a disastrous escalation.

The eagerness for a diplomatic off-ramp is directly proportional to the fear of war. America is not stepping back out of generosity but out of terror at the alternative.

The lonely superpower – No coalition for war

In essence, the failure of “Project Freedom” was sealed long before the first warning shot was fired. It was sealed when America discovered that it was entirely alone and cornered.

Shipping companies, the lifeblood of global trade, ignored the American proposal. Insurance firms, the arbiters of risk, refused to underwrite vessels sailing under the American flag in the troubled zone. Key regional allies, fearful of Iranian retaliation on their own soil and economic infrastructure, distanced themselves from the American offensive.

The American Empire is no longer capable of forming a coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz. Its scenario-planning has devolved into solitary fantasizing. This isolation is not a temporary diplomatic hiccup, but a structural reality.

The world’s biggest navies and commercial fleets have observed Iran’s previous responses and concluded that the cost of aligning with Washington exceeds any conceivable benefit. Trump finds himself commanding a fleet of one.

The triple crossroads: Trump’s impossible choices

Now, after this third and latest retreat, the most humiliating one, Trump stands at a very dangerous triple crossroads. Each path is clogged with thorns. He can choose to continue the war – an effectively impossible option, given the lack of coalition support and the certainty of Iranian asymmetric retaliation.

He can choose to accept Iran’s principles for ending the war – an option that would represent a total strategic surrender. Or he can choose to continue the naval blockade and await results.

The blockade is a particularly ambiguous gamble for Trump. On one hand, he urgently needs time to stabilize global energy markets before the upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and the November midterm congressional elections.

The volatility of oil prices is a political enemy he cannot afford. On the other hand, it is entirely unclear – and virtually impossible – that continuing the blockade will force Iran to submit. All evidence from the past two months suggests the opposite: the blockade is hardening Iran’s resolve, not breaking it. Trump is trapped in a cycle where inaction hurts his domestic timetable, and action guarantees a wider war. He has no good options because he holds no cards.

Negotiations to end the war: Iran’s non-negotiable principles

With the back-and-forth exchange of draft principles now underway, under the Pakistani mediation, it is essential to clarify the fundamental and obvious conditions Iran has laid out to end the war. These are not bargaining points but structural realities of a new Persian Gulf order.

Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s management of the strategic waterway, even after the war, is permanent. This is not about temporary wartime measures. Iran must guarantee its own security in the Persian Gulf, a right that includes obtaining material compensation from vessel passage.

The recent wars have proven that the Strait has been used to equip and strengthen Iran’s enemy. Therefore, enforcing Iranian rules is a natural act of self-defense. Furthermore, effective sovereignty over the Strait can nullify the effects of sanctions.

The Strait is not a bargaining chip but an undeniable right of the Iranian nation. As the Leader of the Islamic Revolution has clarified, Iran’s new management of this strategic waterway is permanent and non-negotiable. There will be no return to the pre-war status quo.

Withdrawal of American forces: The complete withdrawal of American military forces from the Persian Gulf region is a definitive requirement. As the aggressor and perpetrator of unprovoked and devastating war against Iran, the US presence is the only remaining obstacle to peace.

As long as these forces remain in the region, the shadow of war will persist.

Reparations for damages: Iran’s damages from the third imposed war and before that the 12-day war represent an undeniable right of the Iranian nation. Every single Iranian citizen has been harmed by American aggression. Any shortfall in achieving this condition is unacceptable.

Inclusion of the Resistance Front: The terms of ending the ongoing war must include Iran’s allies on the resistance front, especially in Lebanon. This does not negate the right to legitimate resistance against occupation; rather, it codifies the reality that Iran’s security architecture is regional. Any peace that ignores Iran’s partners is no peace at all.

Negotiation from the position of victory: Iran’s post-war doctrine

The collapse of the so-called “Project Freedom” effectively closes the military chapter. What opens now is the diplomatic one – but on Iran’s terms alone. As the new doctrine makes clear, negotiation has no intrinsic value. Only its achievable objectives matter.

First, negotiation is only acceptable if it prevents the repeat of a new war of aggression, not causes it. After repeated American betrayals, Iran will not accept talks that merely delay the next war. The bar is absolute and clear – enduring peace or nothing.

Second, Iran negotiates from the position of the victorious party in the third full-scale imposed war. The goal is not to restore the pre-war status quo but to secure additional concessions not previously held, which includes full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, expulsion of all American forces from the region, and protection of the resistance front.

Third, reparations are not a concession but a basic and inviolable right. The aggressor must pay for the damages of the imposed war. This is non-negotiable.

Fourth, any concession in any domain is forbidden. The enemy is defeated by all accounts. To concede what the enemy failed to win on the battlefield – whether in the 40-day war or the 12-day war before that – would be to validate its aggression.

Inalienable Iranian rights, including nuclear and defense capabilities, are entirely off the table.

Fifth, concessions guarantee future war. If the US learns it can extract through talks what it could not take by force, it will launch another war. Each retreat from an Iranian right is a green light for the next catastrophe – more martyrs, more disasters like the Minab school massacre.

Sixth, the current negotiation must achieve 100 percent of its objectives. Without full realization of Iran’s goals, no further negotiation of any kind will happen. There would be no phased deals, or interim frameworks, or endless talks without result.

May 6, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on ‘Project Freedom’ perishes in 48 hours as Trump retreats under the wall of Iran’s asymmetric deterrence

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