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After the ceasefire illusion: Why Gaza’s “Day After” still has no buyer?

By Dr Mustafa Fetouri | MEMO | April 23, 2026

The international community remains fixated on a phantom: Gaza’s “Day After.” While Washington, Cairo, and Doha debate elaborate governance frameworks and the “Board of Peace,” these plans share a fatal flaw—they lack a viable “buyer” on the ground.

This diplomatic theatre has been eclipsed by the US-Israeli aggression against Iran that began on 28th February. Since then, Gaza has been sidelined globally, yet the genocide—begun in October 2023—has never stopped. Even before the Iran escalation, the 10th October ceasefire was a hollow promise; Israel violated the agreement over 2,400 times through near-daily air raids and shelling.

Since that supposed de-escalation, nearly 1,000 Palestinian civilians have been killed, pushing the total death toll past 72,300. This grim reality proves the “Day After” is not a sincere peace plan, but a cynical mask for a permanent, lethal status quo. Far from transitioning to Phase II, the current impasse suggests the ceasefire was merely a tactical suspension of a conflict Israel refuses to end. With the occupation intact and violations occurring daily, Gaza is not moving toward a post-war era. Instead, it is being forced into a state of managed catastrophe, where “peace” serves as a placeholder for the next phase of destruction.

The “Day After” blueprints—specifically the Trump-led Board of Peace and the National Transitional Committee (NTC)—envision technocratic governance for Gaza but face a wall of refusal. For the Israeli government, any plan offering a pathway to Palestinian sovereignty is a non-starter; Netanyahu’s coalition instead prioritises “forward defence” and indefinite military hegemony. Conversely, the Palestinian Authority (PA) remains wary of being “parachuted” into the ruins on the back of Israeli tanks, a move that would permanently strip them of national legitimacy.

The vacuum is further complicated by the survival of the Resistance on the ground. Despite the fanfare surrounding the Board of Peace’s “Phase II,” Hamas has explicitly rejected  any form of international guardianship, viewing the NTC not as a governing partner, but as a Trojan horse for disarmament. Meanwhile, the wealthy Arab states—the intended financiers of a reconstruction effort now estimated to cost $71.4 billion—have failed to commit any tangible funds.

Their hesitance is rooted in a grim economic reality: the regional losses they have accumulated, and continue to accumulate, from the spillover of the war on Iran have depleted the very sovereign wealth once earmarked for Gaza.

Without a “buyer” willing to assume the immense security and political risks of governing a site of ongoing genocide, the various “roadmaps” coming out of Washington and Brussels serve as little more than academic exercises in a theater of the absurd. The international community continues to pitch governance models to a phantom audience, while the reality on the ground remains one of systematic destruction, leaving Gaza caught in a loop where “reconstruction” is discussed as a future hope but never funded as a present necessity.

The “Day After” illusion is further sustained by the inflammatory rhetoric of Nickolay Mladenov, the High Representative for the Board of Peace. In his recent April 2026 briefings, Mladenov has essentially weaponised Gaza’s reconstruction, explicitly linking the release of the $71.4 billion in aid to the immediate and total disarmament of Palestinian factions.

By framing the situation as a binary choice—disarm or continue to suffer—Mladenov has abandoned the role of a neutral mediator.

Hamas has responded by accusing Mladenov of siding with the Israeli occupation and ignoring the thousands of ceasefire violations that have occurred since October 2026 effectively freezing the process in Phase II. By prioritizing the “decommissioning of weapons” over the immediate cessation of the genocide and the lifting of the blockade, Mladenov’s framework has become a symbol of international bias rather than a bridge to peace. This disconnect is why the “Day After” has no buyer: the brokers are selling a plan that demands the surrender of the victims while the aggressor continues its military operations with impunity.

Sensing that the Resistance groups are not convinced by his frameworks, Mladenov has recently attempted to soften his public tone while maintaining his rigid demands. In an interview with Reuters on 20th April, he admitted that negotiations with Hamas are “not easy,” yet he struck a jarringly optimistic note, claiming he is “optimistic that we will be able to come up with an arrangement that works for all sides and, most importantly, works for the people in Gaza.” Since neither Israel—which continues its strikes—nor the Resistance—which has rejected international guardianship—has publicly shifted their positions, Mladenov’s forward-looking posture appears increasingly detached from the ground reality.

In recent high-level meetings in Cairo (ending 17th April), Hamas negotiators, led by Khalil al-Hayya, delivered a firm list of prerequisites to the Egyptian mediators. They made it clear that they will not consider any decommissioning of weapons without:

  • A definitive and irreversible plan toward a sovereign Palestinian State.
  • The complete and immediate lifting of the 19-year blockade.
  • A full Israeli withdrawal to the pre-October lines (specifically removing the “Yellow Line” military zones).
  • The prior implementation of all Phase I humanitarian commitments, including the reopening of all commercial crossings and the restoration of Gaza’s power plant.

By insisting on these core national rights as a baseline, the Resistance has effectively neutralized Mladenov’s “aid-for-arms” trade-off, exposing the Board of Peace as a seller with a product that the actual stakeholders refuse to buy.

Ultimately, the “Day After” is failing because it has lost its primary architect. Donald Trump, once the loudest champion of these regional “deals,” is now completely bogged down by the escalating war on Iran, a conflict that is siphoning away the political capital and attention once directed toward Gaza. His schedule for next month confirms this pivot: a rescheduled state visit to China (May 14-15) and a high-stakes reception for the UK’s King Charles later this month, both of which were delayed specifically by his war on Iran.

With Trump preoccupied by a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and a domestic battle over war powers, Gaza has been relegated to a secondary theatre.

This lack of American bandwidth means the “Board of Peace” is effectively a rudderless ship. For the people on the ground, this means the “Day After” is not just a geopolitical myth, but a casualty of a larger regional fire that the White House is currently more interested in fuelling than extinguishing.

April 23, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation | , , , , | Comments Off on After the ceasefire illusion: Why Gaza’s “Day After” still has no buyer?

Shifting to Guerilla Warfare, Hezbollah Delivers Massive Blows to Israel

By Robert Inlakesh | Palestine Chronicle | April 22, 2026

Hezbollah has shifted to waging a guerrilla war against the Israeli occupiers in southern Lebanon, reminding Tel Aviv why it decided to withdraw from the country in the year 2000. Instead of allowing Israel to violate the ceasefire unchecked, the responses have been immediate and painful.

On April 16, the White House declared that a 10-Day temporary ceasefire had been reached between Lebanon and Israel. Only the day prior, both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Israel Katz had delivered speeches claiming that their operations in the south of Lebanon would continue to expand.

This caused immense frustration amongst the Israeli public and sparked backlash in the Hebrew-language media.

Sure enough, when the ceasefire went into effect, the Israelis decided to violate the agreement at least 10 times within an hour, mainly through artillery fire on Lebanese villages in the south. This was followed by two drone strikes targeting vehicles in southern Lebanon, in addition to an attack on an ambulance.

Israeli Arabic spokesperson Avrechay Adraee, who was supposed to have retired, yet has made a recent return, openly released a video message ordering displaced Lebanese civilians not to return south of the Litani River area. The occupation forces even bombed the area where efforts were being made to reconstruct a temporary bridge that had been deliberately destroyed during the war to prevent civilian passage into the south.

For a period of time, it had been feared that a return to the pre-March “ceasefire” in Lebanon had just been secured in favor of Tel Aviv once again, where the Israelis carried out frequent operations without any response. All of this as Israel was now occupying more territory illegally, as the Lebanese government negotiated for a normalisation agreement.

Hezbollah Secretary General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, then delivered an address, during which he made it clear that the Lebanese leadership was behaving unacceptably and betraying their duties through their normalizing efforts. He also insisted that the previous status quo would not return and that instead his organization would respond to the Israeli violations, fighting until the occupation of South Lebanon was totally abandoned.

Little more than a day into the ceasefire agreement, despite no announcements of retaliatory actions from Hezbollah, a series of “security incidents” were announced by the Israeli Army. The first few were said to have been tanks running over previously planted explosives, making it appear as if the incidents had occurred by accident.

However, three major “security events” occurred, inflicting at least 37 Israeli casualties, 2 of whom the Israelis admitted were deaths. At this point, it had become clear that something else was going on.

Then came an official Hezbollah statement, claiming responsibility for a single incident, where 4 Israeli Merkava tanks were said to have been completely destroyed by pre-planted IEDs, detonating them on an enemy convoy, after Lebanese fighters had been monitoring their movements. After this, the Israeli military decided not to publish any details on the IED attacks.

Yet, Israeli media commentary explained that soldiers, stationed in what is being called a “buffer zone” in southern Lebanon, have reported their frustrations over Hezbollah drones monitoring their movements.

In other words, Hezbollah has cells throughout the territory that Israel claims to be in control of, who do reconnaissance, then calculate the movements of Israeli forces, anticipating their common routes, before planting IEDs that they then detonate on convoys.

Not only is this a transition to asymmetric warfare, which the Iraqi resistance became well known for when fighting an insurgency against US occupying forces, but it is also beginning to usher in flashbacks to the days of the occupation in South Lebanon.

As an example, in 1997, Hezbollah had managed to pull off what was known as the Ansariyeh Ambush, killing 12 Israeli special forces soldiers from its elite Shayetet 13 Unit. This had been carried out through reconnaissance and intelligence work, to anticipate the arrival of the Israeli unit, a total disaster for the Israeli military at the time.

Today, Hezbollah has advanced from what it was in the 1990s and possesses much more sophisticated and powerful weapons. What it means for Israeli forces on the ground is that they must constantly keep moving, as they remain under surveillance and could be subjected to an ambush at any time.

When Israeli tanks travel down roads they have taken a number of times previously, they could suddenly face a series of EIDs. The more these attacks happen, the more terrified the Israeli conscript army’s soldiers become, fearing the possibility that they could at any moment lose an arm, leg, or their life.

Hezbollah, having shifted to such tactics, could also seek to capture Israeli soldiers at one point, something that would represent a catastrophe for the Israeli political leadership.

If such a capture operation succeeds, then Netanyahu’s campaign of triumph will be suddenly transformed into yet another costly operation that will inevitably accelerate on the ground, while eventually forcing him to commit to a prisoner exchange.

All along, this was precisely the scenario that Hezbollah had hoped for, to rope the Israelis in on the ground, in order to eventually inflict enormous losses on them and fulfill the pledge of its former leader, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah that the south will become a graveyard for the invading army and that they will eventually have no tanks left.

– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine.

April 23, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation | , , , | Comments Off on Shifting to Guerilla Warfare, Hezbollah Delivers Massive Blows to Israel

Israeli army blows up school in southern Lebanon in violation of ceasefire

Press TV – April 21, 2026

‎‎The Israeli regime has demolished a public school in southern Lebanon in a new violation of a temporary ceasefire agreement with Beirut approved by US President Donald Trump.

‎The Israeli army destroyed a public school building in the southern Lebanese town of Khiam despite the 10-day ceasefire.

‎The state-run Lebanese National News Agency (NNA) reported on Tuesday that the Israeli forces rigged the building with explosives and detonated it overnight, completely leveling the structure.

‎‎Israeli forces also fired artillery near the town of Kunin in the Bint Jbeil district in southern Lebanon, according to another report by NNA.

‎‎A series of Israeli demolitions occurred across the south, targeting homes, buildings and other infrastructure, the report said. Israeli forces also “booby-trapped” numerous homes in the villages of Beit Lif, Shamaa, Biyyada, and Naqoura, leveling them, the report added.‎

Trump announced on Thursday a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon following calls with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, the Israeli regime’s forces have continued attacking Lebanese civilian infrastructure and residential areas, disregarding the ceasefire agreement.

‎Meanwhile, Israel has planned to systematically flatten civilian buildings in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli media. Engineering tools, including excavators, have been brought into the area and are being operated by paid Israeli contractors.

Israeli forces are assessing the scale of the destruction through digital tools, including statistical systems that track the number of buildings demolished in each sector.

‎Last month, Israeli Minister of Military Affairs Israel Katz said, “All houses in villages near the border in Lebanon will be demolished in accordance with the Rafah and Beit Hanoun models in Gaza.”

He added that after Israel’s aggression in Lebanon ends, the military would maintain control “over the entire area up to the Litani.”

‎Since March 2, Israel has carried out an aggression against Lebanon that has killed around 2,300 people, wounded more than 7,500, and displaced over 1.2 million, according to Lebanese authorities.

April 21, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation, Militarism | , , , | Comments Off on Israeli army blows up school in southern Lebanon in violation of ceasefire

Washington cuts flow of US dollars to Iraqi central bank until ‘acceptable’ government formed

The Cradle | April 21, 2026

The US has suspended all funding and security coordination with Iraq, and shipments of dollars the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), until a new Baghdad government acceptable to Washington is formed, Al-Hadath reported on 20 April.

The US is also conditioning continued security cooperation on the disclosure of those involved in the bombing of its embassy, the Saudi news channel added.

Nevertheless, on Monday, the CBI released a statement rejecting the Al-Hadath report.

Since 2003, a decision issued by Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) head Paul Bremer has required that all Iraqi oil revenues be paid into an account at the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York, giving the US the ability to control how many US dollars are returned to the CBI.

From that point until today, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance has had to submit funding requests to the US Treasury, which then approves or denies them based on its own criteria.

This monthly transfer of US dollars, flown into Baghdad in pallets of hard cash, determines Iraq’s ability to pay for basic needs such as salaries, food, and medicine.

Whenever Washington believes that Iraq is not aligned with US regional goals, including enforcing economic sanctions on Iran, Baghdad’s major trading partner and a source of natural gas for electricity production, these fund transfers can be delayed or reduced.

The Coordination Framework (CF), the largest parliamentary bloc of Shia parties, has not yet selected a prime minister nearly five months after securing a plurality in the latest elections.

Former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, viewed by the US as “close” to Iran, was initially chosen to replace incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

However, while Washington wants to replace Sudani, it also opposes Maliki’s return to power.

“Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos. That should not be allowed to happen again,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform after Maliki emerged as a candidate for prime minister in January.

“Because of his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq,” he said. If we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom. MAKE IRAQ GREAT AGAIN!”

Maliki was the prime minister in 2014 when ISIS conquered large swathes of Iraq, including the country’s second-largest city, Mosul.

Maliki received much of the blame for the loss of nearly one-third of the country’s territory to ISIS, which enjoyed covert support from the US military and Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani.

The CF, which won 185 of 329 seats in the last election, must nominate a prime minister by 26 April.

April 21, 2026 Posted by | Illegal Occupation, Wars for Israel | , , | Comments Off on Washington cuts flow of US dollars to Iraqi central bank until ‘acceptable’ government formed

Forced to backtrack: ‘Israel’ drops Hezbollah disarmament goal

Al Mayadeen | April 3, 2026

The Israeli occupation army has acknowledged that disarming Hezbollah is not among the objectives of the current war, marking a significant reversal from positions held just two weeks prior, and a tacit admission of the limits of its military options in Lebanon.

“Israel’s” Channel 12 first reported the shift, with Israel Hayom military correspondent Lilach Shoval confirming that dismantling Hezbollah’s weapons is “not on the agenda.”

Yedioth Ahronoth described it as a formal change in the army’s direction, especially as the reversal came only two weeks after the army had publicly insisted it would pursue the full dismantling of Hezbollah’s arsenal.

The army now defines its primary objectives against Hezbollah as significantly weakening the group, establishing “a deep defensive line”, and demolishing dozens of homes along the frontline villages, mirroring the “yellow line” model applied in Gaza.

On disarmament, Israeli army officials admitted that “we must be modest on this issue.”

A sharp reversal

The course reversal stands in stark contrast to the maximalist rhetoric that defined the aggression’s opening weeks. Israeli War Minister Israel Katz had vowed to “separate Lebanon from the Iranian arena and strip Hezbollah of its ability to threaten, changing once and for all the situation in Lebanon,” explicitly invoking the Gaza model.

Meanwhile, IOF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir declared the campaign would end with “Hezbollah suffering a devastating blow,” while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich went further, calling for the Litani River to become the entity’s “new border with the Lebanese state.”

Katz had also announced on March 24 that the IOF would establish a permanent security zone inside Lebanon up to the Litani River. He stated that all homes in border-adjacent villages would be demolished and that the return of displaced Lebanese civilians would be “completely prevented.”

Where officials once spoke of transforming Lebanon’s strategic landscape, the occupation army now concedes that full disarmament would require “a full occupation of Lebanon and the systematic dismantling of military infrastructure in every village,” conditions it realizes are unrealistic.

Notably, Israeli officials maintained that only the IOF, not the Lebanese state or any other party, could disarm Hezbollah, while simultaneously acknowledging that the conditions to do so do not exist.

‘A complex arena’

Earlier in the week, Israeli Channel 11, citing former army and Mossad officials, reported that “the Lebanese arena differs entirely from any other in terms of its complexity and military entanglement.”

Retired Major General and former Mossad chief Danny Yatom said Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon “hold a relative advantage over the Israeli army due to their deep familiarity with the terrain,” adding that “every tree trunk and every small hill can serve as an ambush position.”

He cautioned that even controlling territory up to the Litani River “would not solve the problem of rockets and shells,” and stressed that the real challenge lies in adapting at the tactical level, not merely the strategic one.

Lieutenant Colonel (res.) Oren Leshem, a former senior Israeli Air Force officer, was equally candid, saying there is “no magic solution to the Lebanon issue” and that the army has tried every available approach over the past 18 years, including during the Second Lebanon War, yet the situation “remains complex and highly challenging.”

Channel 14 added that “the problem in Lebanon is that military forces are constantly on the move and exposed, while Hezbollah exploits the terrain to target them.”

April 3, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation | , , , | Comments Off on Forced to backtrack: ‘Israel’ drops Hezbollah disarmament goal

Hezbollah’s Surprise Weapons Redefine Ground Battle with Israel

By Robert Inlakesh | The Palestine Chronicle | March 28, 2026

An Israeli “tank massacre”, reminiscent of the Lebanon war of 2006, has been taking place in southern Lebanon, as Hezbollah surprises the invading army with the use of a range of anti-tank weapons and drones.

On March 25, Hezbollah unleashed a fury on Israel’s Merkava tanks, announcing that they had struck a total of 21, in addition to striking 3 D-9 Bulldozers and 2 militarized Humvees. The following day, the Lebanese group released a series of videos depicting some of their operations.

In order to carry out so many strikes against Israeli armored vehicles, Hezbollah has traditionally used a variety of guided anti-tank guided munitions (ATGM). Prominently made use of have been weapons ranging from varying kinds of the Russian-made Kornet anti-tank systems, to the Almas (diamond) system that is an Iranian reverse-engineered version of the Israeli-made Spike AGTM, a top attack missile that is particularly effective.

During the Lebanon-Israel war of 2024, Hezbollah announced that it had destroyed a total of 59 Israeli tanks between the end of September and November 27. This time around, Hezbollah has already claimed to have struck around 70. It is unclear how many of these hits damaged or destroyed the tanks, but it suffices to say that this is a significant development.

Between October of 2023 and October of 2024, the Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, claimed to have carried out 480 operations targeting Israeli tanks. A later report by Israeli news outlet Maariv cited data arguing that at least 500 military vehicles of varying kinds had sustained damage in Gaza. How many were totally destroyed is unknown, due to Israeli military censorship.

However, even a damaged tank is a major issue as they take a long time to repair, and the process is often costly. The reason why the figures from Gaza matter is that, in the case of the Palestinian resistance groups, they primarily used weapons like the Yassin-105 tandem warhead RPG, and then later, they were forced to use less sophisticated kinds of RPGs. Hezbollah, by comparison, has a much more sophisticated arsenal of anti-tank weapons.

A Game Changer?

During this war, which Hezbollah entered on March 2, citing Israel’s 15,400 ceasefire violations against the country and refusal to withdraw from occupied territory, a new weapon appears to be shaping the group’s ground confrontation with the Israeli invading army. That is the FPV (first-person-view) drone, equipped with heavy explosive charges.

The video published on March 26 by the Lebanese group’s military media featured one of these FPV drones directly striking a weak spot on an Israeli Merkava tank. Since March 25, when these weapons started to be used to combat invading Israeli military vehicles, they have been deployed routinely to target their tanks.

FPV drones using a fiber-optic capability are notably immune to electromagnetic jamming, making them extremely difficult to bring down and have been used extensively in the Ukraine-Russia war. Although no statistic is presented to back up this claim, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that FPV drones account for most battlefield casualties in Ukraine.

Regardless of the precise numbers of casualties inflicted in the Ukraine-Russia war by this drone, it is broadly accepted that it has been a game-changer, with it being the weapon of choice against various kinds of tanks and armored vehicles.

Another bonus to the FPV drone, beyond its use to target weak points on military vehicles, is the fact that the recordings can also be recovered as proof of what it struck. In Baghdad, just over a week ago, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq used two FPV drones to target a US military base, with one drone filming the other striking its target.

When fighting a war against Israel, which is perhaps the most well-known military on earth for hiding its soldiers’ deaths, this can come in handy for Hezbollah, which could potentially use the footage to embarrass the Israeli military.

If Israel proceeds with its ground invasion of Lebanon, launching a full-scale invasion, it may at some point run out of tanks, or at the very least have to begin rationing its use of them.

– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle.

March 28, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation, Militarism | , , | Comments Off on Hezbollah’s Surprise Weapons Redefine Ground Battle with Israel

Seizing the Kharg: Washington’s path to defeat in the Persian Gulf

By Anis Raiss | The Cradle | March 27, 2026

Four weeks of US-Israeli war on Iran – and the stakes have climbed far higher than Washington anticipated. US President Donald Trump threatened on Truth Social to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within 48 hours.

The deadline passed. He blinked and, for the second time, postponed his own ultimatum, recasting it as ‘productive conversations.’ Tehran denied any talks and insisted the reversal was driven by “fear of Iran’s response.”

The US-Israeli air campaign was supposed to break Iran. It didn’t. Now the hawks are pushing for boots on the ground. But the ground war being floated does not simply risk American lives on an island 15 miles (around 24 kilometers) off Iran’s coast. It threatens the entire US military architecture in the Persian Gulf – the bases, the alliances, and the energy infrastructure that has underwritten American dominance in West Asia for decades.

In an interview with NBC News, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in response to a question about a possible ground invasion by the US, delivered words the Pentagon had no answer for: “We are waiting for them,” which became a meme in the process. The bluff has been called. The question now is whether showing Washington’s hand collapses the entire table.

Raising the stakes with an empty hand

The ground invasion discourse is no longer hypothetical. Pentagon officials have submitted detailed preparation requests for deploying ground forces. Three Marine amphibious assault groups are converging on the Persian Gulf: the USS Tripoli carrying the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan, the USS Boxer with the 11th MEU from California, and roughly 1,500 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg.

By the time all units arrive, between 6,000 and 8,000 US ground troops will be within striking distance of Iran. But the composition of these forces exposes the gap between rhetoric and reality. Military analyst Ruben Stewart noted that what is being deployed is “consistent with discrete, time-limited operations, not a sustained ground campaign.”

At the same time, Israel’s own military is showing signs of strain. Chief of staff Eyal Zamir warned on 25 March that the army is “going to collapse in on itself,” citing an eroding reserve force and a deepening manpower crisis as wars stretch from Gaza to Lebanon and now Iran.

Washington is pushing more chips to the center of the table – but the hand behind them remains weak. The scenarios now circulating form an escalation ladder where each rung risks pulling the US deeper into a fight it is structurally unprepared to sustain.

Pickaxe Mountain and the raid that takes too long 

The most politically attractive option is a covert raid on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile – believed to be around 400 kilograms enriched to roughly 60 percent, possibly stored near Isfahan or deep inside Pickaxe Mountain.

But the problem is one Sun Tzu identified centuries ago: speed is the essence of war – yet this mission demands the opposite. Extracting nuclear material requires troops to remain on-site long enough for Iranian forces to respond.

Former CENTCOM commander General Joseph Votel described such operations as “feasible,” but issued a clear warning: “You’re going to have to take care of them, resupply them, medevac them. And that requires a logistical tail, and at some point that tail has to be protected as well.”

Washington still carries the scar of Operation Eagle Claw – the failed 1980 hostage rescue that collapsed in the Iranian desert and helped end Jimmy Carter’s presidency.

Kharg Island: The trap disguised as a shortcut

If covert raids carry too much risk for too little certainty, the next option on the table is a limited territorial seizure – and Washington’s hawks have converged on a single target: Kharg Island.

An eight-square-mile (around 20.7 square kilometers) coral outcrop in the northern Persian Gulf, Kharg processes roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports. US Senator Lindsey Graham urged Trump to “take Kharg Island,” while retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg described himself as a “big believer in boots on the ground” there.

The logic sounds surgical: seize Iran’s economic lifeline and force Tehran to the table. But it collapses under even basic scrutiny. Kharg sits just 15 miles (around 24 kilometers) off the Iranian mainland – well within range of coastal missile batteries, drones, rockets, and artillery. Any US force stationed there would face “near-constant bombardment.”

Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery put it bluntly: “If we seize Kharg Island, they’re going to turn off the spigot on the other end. It’s not like we control their oil production.”

Sun Tzu warned that there is no instance of a nation benefiting from prolonged warfare. Modern analyses reach the same conclusion. Think tank assessments warn that Kharg is a textbook case of mission creep, pulling US forces step by step toward a wider ground war.

The war Iran has prepared for

What Washington’s hawks consistently overlook is that Iran has spent decades preparing for precisely this scenario – not to match US firepower, but to make any ground war prohibitively costly.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is divided into 31 autonomous ground divisions, each capable of operating independently if central command is disrupted.

When strikes killed the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, intelligence minister Esmail Khatib, and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani, the military apparatus continued launching missiles, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and fighting. A command structure designed to survive decapitation appears to be doing exactly that.

At sea, Iran’s naval doctrine relies on asymmetric warfare. Its reported arsenal: hundreds of fast attack craft, coastal missile batteries, an estimated 5,000 naval mines, over 1,000 unmanned suicide vessels, and Ghadir-class midget submarines built for the Gulf’s shallow waters. The Persian Gulf is not an open ocean. It is a corridor shaped by geography and fortified by doctrine – designed to swallow conventional naval power.

On land, the scale alone is decisive. Iran is four times the size of Iraq, with a population exceeding 90 million. Estimates suggest that any conventional invasion would require “hundreds of thousands of troops.”

Then there is the Basij paramilitary network, reportedly capable of mobilizing up to a million reservists – and the IRGC’s decades of experience coordinating asymmetric resistance across the region.

The US currently has fewer than 8,000 moving into position. This is not a war Iran needs to win – but one that is designed to make Washington unable to sustain.

Winning Kharg, losing the Gulf

Even if Washington succeeds tactically – seizing Kharg and declaring victory – the strategic consequences are immediate.

Since the war began, Iran has already demonstrated its escalation capacity. Missiles and drones have targeted US-linked infrastructure across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Energy facilities, airports, and desalination plants have all come under fire.

A seizure of Kharg would likely trigger a far broader response. Iranian officials have explicitly warned of “continuous and relentless attacks” on regional infrastructure if Iranian territory is occupied.

Tehran has also signaled it could expand the conflict to the Bab al-Mandab Strait through allied Ansarallah-aligned forces in Yemen, threatening a second global chokepoint.

Every US position in the Gulf depends on supply lines that run through the very states already under threat. Bahrain hosts the Fifth Fleet. The UAE hosts Al-Dhafra. Kuwait functions as a logistical hub.

As the Stimson Center noted, Gulf states already fear Trump could declare victory and leave them fighting Iran alone.

March 28, 2026 Posted by | Illegal Occupation, Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Seizing the Kharg: Washington’s path to defeat in the Persian Gulf

Top PMU commander, over a dozen fighters killed in new US strikes on Iraq

The Cradle | March 24, 2026

A top commander in the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and over a dozen others were killed in US airstrikes on Iraq overnight, marking yet another escalation by Washington and Tel Aviv against the country.

The US strikes hit a headquarters and killed at least 15 fighters as well as PMU operations commander in Anbar province, Saad al-Bayji.

“In a blatant and cowardly attack, the commander of the Anbar Operations in the Popular Mobilization Forces, Saad Dua al-Bayji, was martyred along with a group of his heroic comrades following a treacherous American airstrike that targeted the command headquarters while they were performing their national duty,” the PMU said in a statement on 24 March.

It added that “the martyrs’ blood will not be in vain,” while holding the Iraqi government “fully responsible for confronting these repeated American violations and taking clear and resolute positions to preserve the country’s sovereignty and put an end to these grave transgressions.”

A funeral was held for the commander and the 15 fighters in Baghdad on Tuesday, coinciding with more airstrikes on PMU offices in Mosul.

The deadly attacks come just two days after the Iraqi resistance targeted the US Victoria Base near Baghdad airport in at least eight separate rocket and drone strikes.

The US Victoria Base – located near Baghdad airport – has come under continuous attacks by the Iraqi resistance since the start of Washington and Tel Aviv’s brutal war against Iran. The site serves as a US military logistical center.

Footage from after an Iraqi resistance operation last week showed the US Victoria Base engulfed in large flames from an earlier attack.

Other targets which have come under heavy attack by the Iraqi resistance include Washington’s Harir Base and the US Embassy compound in Baghdad.

Deadly air raids against Iraq have been ongoing since the Iraqi resistance intervened in the war and began striking US targets in response to the brutal US-Israeli campaign against Iran.

March 24, 2026 Posted by | Illegal Occupation, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Top PMU commander, over a dozen fighters killed in new US strikes on Iraq

Smotrich calls for annexation of South Lebanon to Litani River

Al Mayadeen | March 24, 2026

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has called for the annexation of territory from Lebanon up to the Litani River, saying “Israel” should seize vast swathes of land in southern Lebanon,

“The new Israeli border must be the Litani,” Smotrich said on Israeli radio on Monday. “The campaign needs to end with a different reality entirely, both with the Hezbollah decision but also with the change of Israel’s borders.”

The Litani River is located nearly 40 kilometers inside Lebanese territory from the South.

Since early March, “Israel” has ordered all residents of southern Lebanon to leave areas south of the Litani, citing what it called “limited and targeted ground operations against key Hezbollah strongholds.”

Expanding operations

On Sunday, the Israeli military announced plans to expand both ground and air operations in southern Lebanon. War Minister Israel Katz has also previously threatened that “Israel” would occupy Lebanese territory if the government does not disarm the Resistance.

Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron condemned “Israel’s” actions in Lebanon as “inappropriate and even unacceptable,” arguing that “Israel’s” repeated wars against the Resistance have never produced the desired results.

“Israel” has repeatedly launched military campaigns against Lebanon since 1978 and occupied most southern Lebanon between 1982 and 2000, maintaining a self-declared “security zone” until resistance operations forced a withdrawal. It is still in occupation of Lebanese territory

Israeli aggression on Lebanon kills 1,024 civilians since March 2

The number of martyrs resulting from the ongoing Israeli aggression on Lebanon since March 2 has risen to 1,024, with at least 2,740 others wounded, Lebanon’s Ministry of Health announced on Saturday.

The figures reflect the intensifying human toll of the continued aggression, which has escalated across multiple regions in South Lebanon and beyond.

Israeli airstrikes and artillery attacks continued to target Lebanon overnight Monday.

Israeli warplanes targeted a residential apartment in the town of Bshamoun in Mount Lebanon, marking a continued expansion of strikes into populated areas.

Earlier reports confirmed an Israeli attack on an apartment in Hazmieh, also in Mount Lebanon, resulting in the death of a civilian, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.

Multiple airstrikes were also recorded on the Southern Suburb of Beirut, with at least seven raids recorded in the area.

The attacks come amid ongoing escalation targeting densely populated neighborhoods.

Israeli strikes also hit several areas in southern Lebanon, including:

  • Zifta
  • Al-Burghliya
  • A gas station near the Rashidieh camp in Tyre

Strikes were reported in al-Bayyada, the al-Ashrafiyat area on the outskirts of al-Abbasiyah, as well as in Ayta al-Shaab, Arnoun, Qabrikha, and areas between Burj al-Shamali and al-Bazourieh.

Artillery shelling also targeted the outskirts of Kfar Kila, indicating a continued pattern of bombardment across border areas.

Earlier in the day, four martyrs were reported following a dawn strike on a residential building in Majdal Selem.

This morning, Lebanese citizen was martyred and another injured after Israeli occupation forces (IOF) stormed the town of Halta in the Arqoub region of the Hasbaya district in southern Lebanon, Al Mayadeen’s correspondent in southern Lebanon reported.

According to our correspondent, Israeli forces raided several homes in the al-Hara al-Fawqa neighborhood, opening fire on civilians before withdrawing from the town after abducting one resident.

March 24, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation | , , , | Comments Off on Smotrich calls for annexation of South Lebanon to Litani River

Eight Iraqi resistance attacks hit US Victoria base near Baghdad airport

The Cradle | March 22, 2026

Iraqi resistance factions targeted the US Victoria Base near Baghdad airport in at least eight separate rocket and drone strikes, just days after video footage showed the site engulfed in flames as a result of non-stop attacks.

“Eight separate attacks, carried out until dawn with rockets and drones, targeted the US center,” a senior Iraqi security source told AFP on 22 March.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq coalition announced on Sunday morning that its fighters carried out 21 operations over the past 24 hours, “using dozens of drones and missiles to target US occupation bases in Iraq and across the region.”

The US Victoria base – located near Baghdad airport – has come under continuous attacks by the Iraqi resistance since the start of Washington and Tel Aviv’s brutal war against Iran. The site serves as a US military logistical center.

Footage from after an Iraqi resistance operation on Friday showed the US Victoria base engulfed in large flames.

Other targets which have come under heavy attack by the Iraqi resistance include Washington’s Harir base and the US embassy compound in Baghdad.

After several heavy strikes on the embassy building since the start of the month, leading Iraqi resistance faction Kataib Hezbollah said on 19 March that it “issued orders to suspend operations targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad for a period of five days,” warning that “the response will be immediate” if its terms are violated.

The terms demand that Israel “cease the destruction and bombardment of the southern suburbs in Beirut,” and include calls for “a commitment to not bomb residential areas in Baghdad and the provinces,” as well as “the withdrawal of CIA elements from their positions and keeping them inside the embassy.”

Two days earlier, a top Kataib Hezbollah official was assassinated in a US-Israeli airstrike.

Deadly air raids against Iraq have been ongoing since the Iraqi resistance intervened in the war and began striking US targets in response to the brutal US-Israeli campaign against Iran.

March 22, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation, Wars for Israel | , , , | Comments Off on Eight Iraqi resistance attacks hit US Victoria base near Baghdad airport

Iran’s Dimona Strike Shatters Myth of ‘Impenetrable’ THAAD, Patriot & Arrow Air Defenses – Analyst

Sputnik – 22.03.2026

Iran’s huge leap in missile capability allowed it to punch through Israel’s vaunted multi-layered air defense shield, says political science and international relations expert Dr. Simon Tsipis. That explains why several warheads in Iran’s retaliatory strike on Dimona, home to Israel’s nuclear research facility shielded by Israeli and US defenses, reached their target area, Dr. Simon Tsipis tells Sputnik.

According to the analyst:

  • Attack exposed weaknesses of Israel’s Iron Dome, built to intercept short-range rockets and mortars – not Iran’s intermediate-range ballistic missiles
  • Iran’s military capabilities now allow it to launch ballistic missiles at ranges exceeding 2,000 km — including Diego Garcia joint US-UK military base
  • Iran employs saturation tactics, launching swarms of decoys like drones and low-caliber missiles to overwhelm defensive systems before the main missile strikes

“Until now, it had been assumed that Iranian missiles would lose momentum and speed at the limits of their range. It is now evident that they retain significant power and velocity during the terminal phase of flight,” says the pundit.

The geopolitics expert breaks down the brutal US/Israel reputational damage:

  • While Iran has just burnished its credentials as a serious military power, arms buyers everywhere are taking note of Arrow, Patriot, and THAAD failures
  • Iran’s claimed airspace dominance puts US bases on notice worldwide, while bringing much of Europe within Iran’s missile range

The sheer reach of Iran’s new arsenal deals a humiliating blow to Israeli intelligence, which had long insisted it knew every detail of Iran’s capabilities
“Clearly, hidden breakthroughs went undetected,” he says.

In Dr.Tsipis’ opinion, Iran likely chose not to score a direct hit on Dimona’s nuclear reactor to avoid escalation. But it has sent a clear message: “Israel’s most heavily guarded site lies within striking range of Iranian systems.”

March 22, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation, Wars for Israel | , , | Comments Off on Iran’s Dimona Strike Shatters Myth of ‘Impenetrable’ THAAD, Patriot & Arrow Air Defenses – Analyst

The Israeli Media Is Laying The Groundwork For a Permanent Israeli Occupation Of Southern Lebanon

The Dissident | March 20, 2026

Israeli journalists with connections to Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party are now openly calling for an Israeli annexation of Southern Lebanon and the establishment of Jewish settlements, after the Israeli bombing campaign has displaced over one million people from Southern Lebanon.

Netanyahu-connected figures in the Israeli media are now using this mass displacement to push for a permanent Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon.

Amit Segal, a Likud connected journalist, in the Miriam Adelson funded outlet Israel Hayom praised Trump for supporting the idea of an Israeli annexation of the West Bank and Gaza and hoped that the Trump administration would approve an Israeli annexation of Southern Lebanon, writing, “Trump, a man with no sentimentality for old borders, already shook the Middle East when he agreed in principle to recognize Israeli sovereignty over parts of Judea and Samaria in the framework of the Peace to Prosperity plan, and when he supported mass emigration from Gaza. The mass migration from southern Lebanon has already happened. The only question is whether he will give Israel merely de facto approval of its new northern border or de jure approval as well.”

Referring to IDF militants who expanded up to the Litani River in Southern Lebanon, Amit Segal hoped it would lead to permanent occupation, writing, “Is this a temporary, isolated event? Soldiers who went deeper into Lebanon this week should think again, and remember that IDF forces have now been on the summit of the Syrian Hermon since the end of 2024, with no expiration date.”

Taking it a step further, Michael Freund, a former deputy communications director of Benjamin Netanyahu, writing in The Jerusalem Post, explicitly advocated for a permanent Israeli occupation with Jewish settlements of Southern Lebanon calling for Israel to “incorporate southern Lebanon into sovereign Israel and settle it with Jews.”

He added that, “A growing movement in Israel has begun to argue that the only way to guarantee lasting security in the North is not merely military control of territory but the establishment of permanent Jewish communities there. One such initiative is Uri Tzafon (‘Awaken, O North’), an organization advocating the settlement of southern Lebanon as a long-term security solution.”

He advocated that Israel “maintains control of the territory south of” the Litani River and the “establishment of Jewish communities there”.

Michael Freund cited biblical Israel as a justification for stealing Lebanese land, writing, “Biblical sources describe the borders of Canaan as extending northward toward Sidon, and the territory of the tribes of Israel included it as well” along with arguing that Israeli annexation of Southern Lebanon is needed for “security”, (i.e. destroying Hezbollah’s ability to defend against Israeli expansion).

The motive behind the war in Iran has always been the Greater Israel project. With Israel’s mass displacement of Southern Lebanon, the Likud-friendly media is already explicitly stating that this move was done to advance the project and expand Israeli territory into Southern Lebanon.

March 21, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation | , , | Comments Off on The Israeli Media Is Laying The Groundwork For a Permanent Israeli Occupation Of Southern Lebanon

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