Aletho News

Iran has the last laugh

By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | March 27, 2026

Wars are always unpredictable. The most famous instance is of another armada like the US’ in the Persian Gulf at the moment — the Spanish Armada, a 130-ship naval fleet sent by Spain in 1588 commanded by Alonso de Guzmán, Duke of Medina Sidonia, an aristocrat appointed by Philip II of Spain to invade England, depose Queen Elizabeth I, and restore Catholicism.

Despite its strength, the Spanish Armada was defeated in the English Channel by a smaller English force using fireships and better artillery, then largely destroyed by storms while retreating around Scotland and Ireland.

The US president Donald Trump’s much-touted armada has more or less the same mission as the Spanish Armada — ranging from regime change to  overthrow of the Islamic system of governance to the unspoken leitmotif of a Crusade. Curiously, it seems destined for a similar miserable ending too, the US’ overwhelming military superiority notwithstanding.

Sir Alexander William Younger KCMGUS, former head of MI6, said in an interview with the Economist on Monday that Iran has gained the “upper hand” in the ongoing war with the United States and Iran.  Sir Alexander complimented Iran.

More than one factor contributed to this “paradigm shift” of the Big Boy coming out second best. Bad planning, lack of a coherent strategy,  over-confidence over the US’ apparent military superiority– all these played their part in the undoing of the plot against Iran that the two aggressors hatched.

It is now out in the open that, incredibly enough, just 16 days into the war, the US forces were already running out of ATACMS/PrSM ground-attack missiles; and, Israel is about to expend its entire Arrow interceptor missiles by the end March. 

The Royal United Services Institute in London published on March 24 an analysis/expert opinion highlighting that the war in Iran has virtually hollowed out the inventory of the US and Israel’s “most critical assets” with no prospects of replenishment anytime soon in a near future due to the fragilities of the US defence industrial base. 

The findings are a stark warning that with the conflict having “settled into a grinding trial of attrition” after the first 96 hours, the inventories of long-range interceptors and precision strike weapons are nearing exhaustion. 

The CEO of Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger warned on 19 March that global stockpiles are “empty or nearly empty” and if the war continues another month, “we nearly have no missiles available”.

To be sure, Iranians are watching closely and that explains their defiant stance that “Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its conditions are met.” Tehran has warned that it will continue to deal “heavy blows” across the Middle East. Media reports confirm Iran’s claim that it has rendered dysfunctional the US bases all across the region. Had it not been about a war, there is cause for celebration when the notorious bully gets thrashed by a little brother.

Word is spreading in the US despite the cover-up by the administration that “The U.S. war in Iran is taking a mounting toll on America’s military, with rising casualties, dwindling munitions stockpiles, a sidelined aircraft carrier and numerous downed aircraft just three weeks into the conflict, ” to quote from The Hill, an influential newspaper that circulates among lawmakers in the US Congress.

The report adds, “At least 13 U.S. service members have been killed, while another 232 have been injured since the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran began on Feb. 28. In addition, some 16 American aircraft have been destroyed, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier was damaged in a laundry room fire earlier this month and American forces are quickly blowing through stocks of air defence and long-range munitions.”

The commentary carried by RUSI says that Iran has damaged at least a dozen US and allied radars and satellite terminals, which has impacted the efficiency of interception. Evidently, using 10 or 11 interceptors for one Iranian missile or 8 patriot missiles for one Iranian drone becomes unsustainable going ahead. It underscored that the US military is “approximately a month, or less, away from running out of ATACMS/PrSM ground-attack missiles and THAAD interceptors. And Israel is in an even more precarious spot, with its Arrow interceptor missiles likely to be completely expended by the end of March.”

In real terms, this implies accepting greater risk for aircraft and tolerating more Iranian missiles and drones damaging US-Israeli forces and infrastructure. The audacious Iranian attacks this week on Dimona, Israel’s nuclear city, is a vivid example. 

“The precariousness … could possibly explain why President Trump is already suggesting the ‘winding down’ of the Iran war; it could take years to replace what was expended in only 16 days,” the commentary points out. Given the limitations of the US defence industrial base, “it will likely take at least 5 years to replenish the 500 plus Tomahawk missiles already fired in the war. 

“Worse, sourcing critical defence minerals, rare earths, and materials to make the weapons and munitions is complicated by China. China controls most of the world’s gallium and germanium, and Beijing has imposed numerous mineral export controls since 2023, to prevent the US and its allies from acquiring these necessary inputs for the defence industrial base.”

The “strategic consequence” of all this is that continued fighting with Iran not only increases the risk to forces in-theatre but engenders the bigger risk of what it does to deterrence and defence elsewhere, such as “protecting Taiwan and supporting Ukraine”. 

Besides, if the US prioritises replenishing its own stocks, it slows deliveries to other partners. Allies are already signalling concern that “an American focus on its own military replenishment will delay weapon and munition deliveries they have already paid for.”

The reigning superpower that was Spain in the 16th century saw its power crumble after the defeat of the Armada, while England would soon control an empire that the sun never set on. Is history repeating on a similar template in our world in transition?

March 27, 2026 - Posted by aletho | Militarism | China, Iran, Israel, Middle East, United States, Zionism