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Venezuela Election Polls by “Respected” Consultores 21 Unreliable

By Erik Sperling | Venezuelanalysis | October 3rd 2012

With the Venezuelan presidential elections looming this Sunday, the U.S. press is dedicating increasing attention to the campaign between Hugo Chavez and opposition challenger Henrique Capriles. While nearly all polling companies, including the opposition-aligned Datanalisis, give double-digit leads for Chavez, many news organizations continue to give the impression that the race is a toss-up. Countless news agencies have focused heavily on polls conducted by Consultores 21, whose latest poll shows Capriles ahead 49.9 percent to 45.7 percent, to demonstrate that the contest is neck-and-neck.

Consultores 21 is “respected,” “reputable,” and “well-regarded,” according to the Wall Street Journal, ABC News, and Washington Post, respectively. Capriles himself has said “personally, I believe in Consultores. I’ve been looking at Consultores’ polls for many years.”

In a meeting with U.S. election monitors on Monday, influential opposition media figure Teodoro Petkoff said that Consultores is one of the only “serious” pollsters in Venezuela today (discounting Datanalisis as corrupt). It is entirely unclear how they come to this conclusion, however, as Consultores has an extremely poor record in previous Venezuelan electoral contests. For example: In the 2004 vote to recall Chavez mid-term, Consultores predicted a tie between those wanting Chavez to finish his term and those voting to recall. But the recall vote failed with Chavez garnering 60 percent of the vote.

In the 2006 presidential election between Chavez and opposition candidate Manuel Rosales, Consultores maintained that Chavez had just a 13% lead over his opponent. Chavez won that contest with a nearly 26 percent margin over Rosales (62.8% to 36.9%).

In the 2009 constitutional referendum to remove term limits for president, Consultores polls a month beforehand showed just 41.8 backing the referendum, with 56.20 opposed. The referendum passed with a 54 percent majority–almost a polar opposite result from the one predicted by Consultores.

Grave errors such as these by a polling company should have been more than enough to put them out of business. The continued existence of Consultores 21, despite their consistent lack of any semblance of accuracy, demonstrates its purpose as a mere campaign tool for opponents of Chavez. News organizations should be able to uncover and identify this type of blatant bias, and now must take steps to correct their misrepresentation of the status of the Venezuelan presidential election.

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3 Comments »

  1. Pretty funny stuff here. A private polling firm that in 2009 mistakenly predicted that Chavez would lose a referendum, should be driven out of business because now, a few days before the 2012 presidential election, they are again predicting Chavez will lose? The source, Venezuelanalysis, is a 100% Chavez government owned operation, so it’s not surprising they would be printing ridiculously biased trash like this, but what sort of person reprints it on their blog as legitimate, and without noting the above?

    Trash propaganda; but it does at least openly show how thoroughly undemocratic the establishment rulers of Venezuela are, especially when you know this was paid for with the tax dollars of all Venezuelans. After fourteen years in power, the best they can do is call for the elimination of a private polling firm because it is predicting they might lose their hold on the oil money.

    Like

    m_astera's avatar Comment by m_astera | October 5, 2012 | Reply

    • Aletho-

      What, are you so threatened or so lazy that all you can do is cut and paste the self-promo from the Venezuelanalysis site?

      My main point, which you didn’t address, was that the essay you reprinted was calling for the destruction of an independent polling company, for the crime of saying that the opposition candidate was ahead. Their previous crime was to mis-call a single referendum issue in 2009. So, they need to be done away with, because they dare print a poll that threatens the Chavez government a few days before the coming presidential election?

      And you agree with this?

      Here are the connections of a few of the propagandists, from the blurb you just pasted, with one addition: That the wife of the head of Venezuelanalysis is the Consulate General of Venezuela in the United States.

      Gregory Wilpert:…is one of the two co-founders of venezuelanalysis.comGreg’s second book on Venezuela, Changing Venezuela by Taking Power: The History and Policies of the Chávez Government,….After marrying Carol Delgado in 1997, a Venezuelan [Carol Delgado, Gregory Wilpert’s wife, is Consulate General of Venezuela in the United States]

      Rachael Boothroyd: ….Her current work focuses on the transformation of the state apparatus in Venezuela….She is also involved with grassroots movements in Caracas, particularly the Commune movement.

      Federico Fuentes:….linked to the Minister of Popular Power for University Education as a resident researcher.

      Tamara Pearson:….is active in the Bolivarian revolution, including as a spokesperson for her communal council, collaborating in an alternative education project, writing a thesis on “Creative writing as a process of empowerment in the context of alternative education” through Venezuela’s Open Studies University (UPTEM)

      All are on the payroll of the Chavez government. Venezuelanalysis is no more an independent news site than Radio Free America; it is a fully funded propaganda mouthpiece of the Venezuelan government, and all of the writers above, at least, are taking their paycheck from the Chavez government.

      Eva Golinger? Don’t make me laugh. Talk about a bought and paid for sycophant.

      I have lived in Venezuela for many years. You have never been there, have you? Your entire knowledge about the country comes from reading government funded propaganda like this, doesn’t it?

      Like

      m_astera's avatar Comment by m_astera | October 6, 2012 | Reply

      • Right. Three “errors” worth mentioning in ten years, and only worth mentioning by a government propaganda mill because they were miscalled in the opposition’s favor? Give me a break. Do you know of any other polling companies in Venezuela, and their track record? No you don’t. Nor have you ever been to Venezuela, correct?

        And what do you have to say, now that you have been informed that the founder and editor of Venezuelanalsis is married to the Consulate General of Venezuela? And that all or almost all of the listed contributors are on the Chavez government payroll? Hmm?

        I’m guessing that you don’t care, you think that’s great. You probably also think it’s great that Chavez entire re-election campaign has been illegally funded with government money, or that an estimated 900,000 government employees were ordered to take a bus to Caracas yesterday to appear at the rally for Chavez, with full pay for the day. You approve of that, don’t you? Because all that matters is the ideology, and whatever it takes to win for those promoting the ideology. Correct? The means justify the end, correct?

        Like

        m_astera's avatar Comment by m_astera | October 6, 2012 | Reply


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