Aletho News

With Assad gone, Israel looks to expand while rival NATO-backed groups will turn on each other

By Omar Ahmed | MEMO | December 10, 2024

While others spoke of the revival of the Syrian revolution as an inevitability, especially with the weakening of Syria and the erosion of its allies capabilities, Hezbollah in particular, others have for years warned of the dire consequences of the alternative, given the domination of the armed opposition by former Al-Qaeda affiliate Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS).

The ousting of long-time President Bashar Al-Assad marks the end of 61 years of Baathist rule, paving the way for an uncharted and volatile future. As a key member of the Axis of Resistance, the loss of the Syrian state which served as a supply route from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon is another major blow to the only regional alliance that has taken military action against Israel in support of the Palestinians.

On 27 November, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups led by HTS launched a surprise offensive against government forces in north-west Syria from their bastion of Idlib after years of deadlock. This coalition, which included Turkish-backed factions and other rebel groups, quickly gained momentum. Within days, key cities fell to the rebels, notably Aleppo, Hama and Homs, ultimately tightening the noose around Damascus, before that too fell.

The timing of this offensive appears to be anything but coincidental.

Shortly before the operation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had issued stern warnings to Assad, accusing him of “playing with fire” by hosting Iranian and Hezbollah forces and his role in transferring arms to Lebanon. This sequence of events suggests that the opposition groups in Syria may have perceived an opportunity to strike; more sinisterly, it suggests a call to action. It is common knowledge that Israel has provided arms and funding to several Syrian rebel factions during the civil war.

Implying his own role in being behind the opposition offensive, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that, “The target, of course, is Damascus. The opposition’s march continues. Our wish is that this march in Syria continues without accidents.” This was reportedly after Assad’s refusal to “determine the future of Syria together” with him.

In the immediate aftermath of Assad’s downfall, Israel wasted no time and moved swiftly to “secure” its northern borders by invading Syrian territory for the first time in 50 years. On 8 December, Israeli forces occupied the demilitarised buffer zone in Syria’s already Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, seizing Mount Hermon. Netanyahu framed the further occupation as a necessary defensive measure to prevent hostile entities from establishing a presence near the settler-colonial state’s borders. Although claiming to be a temporary measure, there is nothing to say this won’t be the latest case of the occupation state pushing back its nominal borders.

According to Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, developments in Syria showed why “it is more important than ever to create a strong regional coalition, with Saudi Arabia and the countries of the Abraham Accords, to work together.” He added that, “The Iranian axis has weakened significantly, and Israel needs to strive for an overall political achievement.”

The lightning advances of opposition forces were facilitated by the weakened state of Assad’s traditional allies, notably Hezbollah and Russia, which is preoccupied with Ukraine. Hezbollah has been impacted severely by its cross-border exchanges of fire with Israel which erupted in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, and the subsequent Israeli invasion and bombing campaign in Lebanon. Having failed to achieve its stated objectives, Tel Aviv had to settle for a ceasefire, but the movement suffered significant losses, including the assassination of its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, in September.

Nasrallah had long warned that if Syria were to fall, it would have major ramifications for Palestinian liberation. “If Syria falls, so will Palestine, the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem,” he said in 2013. “We will enter a very dark phase. If Syria falls at the hands of the Americans and the Israelis and the American representatives in the region, the ‘resistance’ will be isolated and Israel will enter Lebanon and force its laws upon it. Lebanon will return to the Israeli era.”

There is a very real threat that extremists in Lebanon may seek to instigate their own “uprising” now that Hezbollah is regrouping and recovering, without support from Damascus. “If Syria is lost, Palestine would be lost,” Nasrallah reiterated two years later.

As of now, neither HTS nor the transitional government have released a statement addressing the Israeli invasion and occupation of Syrian lands, nor how, if at all, they intend to support the Palestinian resistance. While congratulating the Syrian people, Hamas stopped short of mentioning any rebel faction specifically, but did stipulate that it hoped that post-Assad Syria would continue “its historical and pivotal role in supporting the Palestinian people.”

How this will happen remains unclear.

Hezbollah, for its part, has issued a statement following the Israeli invasion of Syria: “This aggressive occupation of Syrian lands coincides with the ongoing Zionist military aggression against Lebanon, its daily violations, and its assaults on Gaza. These interconnected threats place the region’s peoples in imminent danger, underscoring the unity of their struggle and the necessity of rejecting and confronting this aggression.”

Meanwhile, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), composed primarily of Kurdish fighters, have seized the city of Deir Ez-Zor, expanding their control over significant portions of eastern Syria. The US maintains an illegal military presence at the Al-Tanf base in southern Syria, a strategic location near the borders of Iraq and Jordan and close to Israel.

The rapid collapse of the Syrian Arab Republic and the lack of significant resistance from the Syrian Arab Army have raised questions about a potential behind-the-scenes agreement. Analysts speculate that discussions involving Russia, Iran, Turkiye and possibly the US resulted in a tacit understanding that allowed for Assad’s ouster with minimal bloodshed. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s apparent prioritisation of a resolution in Ukraine over Assad’s survival adds weight to this theory. By trading influence in Syria for concessions in Eastern Europe, Putin may have decided that Assad was expendable in the broader calculus of Moscow’s foreign policy.

Suffice to say he and his family have since been granted asylum in the Russian capital.

Essentially, the Syrian state’s prolonged depletion, exacerbated by continued Israeli bombardments targeting infrastructure and military assets, left it ill-prepared to mount any substantial defence.

With their common enemy — the Assad government — now removed, longstanding tensions among various rebel factions are likely to resurface owing to the opposing agendas of their NATO-member backers. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the US-backed SDF have historically had strained relations, primarily due to Ankara’s opposition to Kurdish autonomy near its borders. The power vacuum has heightened the risk of clashes between these groups, each vying for control over strategic territories. At the weekend, Turkish-backed Syrian fighters launched an offensive against Kurdish forces in the northern Manbij area.

While the loss of a nation-state in the Axis of Resistance represents a major blow, the broader network remains resilient. Hezbollah, although weakened, is expected to adopt a more defensive posture in the short term, focusing on rebuilding its arsenal and fortifying its positions. Yemeni and Iraqi factions, meanwhile, continue to carry out operations against Israeli targets, signalling their ongoing commitment to the cause. Without Iranian supplies going to Lebanon via Syria, though, Israel stands to make further strategic gains now that the rebels have laid out the groundwork.

Even as Syria’s role as a logistical and strategic hub diminishes, the resistance will have no choice but to adapt, relying on alternative routes and methods to sustain operations. Hezbollah will need to refocus on indigenous weapons development and rely heavily on the expertise of the IRGC — Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — to recover its strength. However, this effort will face its own challenges under Donald Trump’s incoming presidency, with possible renewed sanctions and increased pressure on Iran aiming to curb its regional influence.

Assad failed to bring about serious reforms even after the respite provided by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah against the foreign-backed opposition. The army, low on morale and supplies, offered little to no resistance against the march to Damascus. With scenes of freed prisoners from the notorious Sednaya Prison, only the most unhinged could double down uncritically about support for Assad’s rule. After 13 years of war, the people want and deserve peace and stability.

However, as post-Gaddafi Libya and post-Saddam Iraq have shown, the collapse of totalitarian or authoritarian states often gives way to new conflicts and instability, with tribal, ethnic or sectarian tensions resurfacing. For now, Syria remains a fractured and weakened state, dominated by regional and global powers. It is far from being free.

December 10, 2024 - Posted by aletho | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation, Wars for Israel | Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Palestine, Syria, Zionism