Aletho News

Shifting Sands of Asian Geopolitics

By Pranay Kumar Shome – New Eastern Outlook – August 31, 2025

The rapprochement between India and China represents a significant reset in the geopolitics of Asia.

Change is the explicit rule of human nature. Changes affect every aspect of human societies, it shapes our ideas, beliefs and perceptions of how one looks at the world. Change is an integral part of politics as well, particularly global politics. While the prospect of radical change in the strategic perceptions of two state actors may not take place quickly, what, however, happens is that the concerned state actors reach a sort of understanding to pursue their shared interests by setting aside differences and work on improving bilateral ties.

This is exactly what is happening between India and China. China and India, the world’s second and fourth largest economies and in possession of some of the world’s strongest armed forces backed by formidable nuclear arsenals have had an interesting relationship since the 1950s.

The bilateral relationship underwent a rough patch when Indian and Chinese troops clashed along the LAC or Line of Actual Control in the Pangong Lake in eastern Ladakh in June 2020. The clash resulted in a number of troop casualties on both sides. The incident led to a precipitously decline in ties with New Delhi undertaking a slew of steps to protect its national interests and China retaliating in kind.

In addition to that, the situation along the border was tense with New Delhi and Beijing amassing more than 50,000 troops on both sides backed by artillery and other military assets. It seemed that India’s ties with China were back to the phase of the post 1962 period.

However, the thaw in the tense relationship started with the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia in October 2024. The Indian and Chinese sides have held a number of bilateral discussions at the diplomatic and military level to defuse the crisis at the border and restore the status quo.

American Blunder

The restructuration of the Sino-India ties really picked up when USA, which enjoyed a warm and strong relationship with India committed a Himalayan blunder by deciding to indulge in brinksmanship. Washington’s decision to impose 50% tariffs on India, 25% for failure to negotiate a trade deal that is favorable to Washington and 25% as penalty for buying crude oil from Moscow and directly financing the ‘Russian war machine’ in Ukraine.

Foreign policy of a country is always framed behind closed doors with a trusted group of experienced advisors. This is the de-facto norm in most countries of the world. However, the second Trump presidency has upended decades of American foreign policy making by taking decisions on important global issues and partnerships in a highly public manner. This makes a complete mockery of the long standing conventions of international politics.

The economic warfare waged by Trump against India is a direct manifestation of this mercurial style. However, the American attempt to strong arm India into submission, did not work in the past, and won’t work now.

Caveats Remain

Notwithstanding the ongoing thaw in ties with Beijing, there exist caveats that hinder the full recovery and development of the relationship.  The first problem is the massive imbalance in the India-China trade relationship. With bilateral trade standing at over $100 billion, China enjoys a gargantuan trade surplus over India. Apart from this, China hasn’t provided market access to Indian companies and government in the manner India has demands. Lack of transparency in market access creates an asymmetry in the economic aspect of the relationship.

The second issue is the unsettled nature of the LAC. History is filled with incidents where major disputes flare up due to disputed nature of borders. With a 3,488 km border, resolution of pressing border issues, especially along the Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh sectors are the need of the hour. A consensus on patrolling and demarcation of the contested areas must be carried out keeping in mind the mutual sensitivities of both sides. In this context, more power must be given to the special representatives appointed for this purpose. Further, more Confidence Building Measures (CBM) at the diplomatic and military levels must be formulated to ensure timely resolution of the outstanding territorial disputes. In that context, the de-escalation in the Ladakh sector must be done expeditiously as troops of both sides continue to be stationed, undermining the prospects of normalcy.

Going forward, it is essential that the goodwill and trust between the two sides is restored so as to claim the 21^st century as the Asian century.

Pranay Kumar Shome, a research analyst who is a PhD candidate at Mahatma Gandhi Central University, Bihar, India

August 31, 2025 - Posted by aletho | Economics | China, India, United States