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Scholz loses confidence vote in German parliament, worsening Berlin’s political crisis

By Lucas Leiroz | December 17, 2024

The political crisis in Germany is deepening. Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in parliament on December 16, effectively dismantling his government. With the collapse of the coalition and the need for early elections, it seems clear that the irresponsible policies of support for Ukraine have been a “death sentence” for the Scholz government.

Scholz lost with a total of 394 votes against him, while only 207 parliamentarians voted in his favor. As a result, early elections will have to be called, and are expected to be scheduled for February 23. For now, Scholz remains in office, but will have to deal with the situation of a minority government. This means that the prime minister does not have the necessary majority of supporters to pass laws of his interest in parliament, in effect being a kind of “symbolic government”.

This situation was expected, considering that his political alliance had already collapsed recently. The pro-government coalition was dismantled after the chancellor fired then Finance Minister Christian Lindner due to disagreements on issues such as the military budget and support for Kiev. Along with Lindner, other ministers and officials who disagreed with Scholz were also dismissed or resigned, which was seen by the coalition as an attempt at a “purge” to eliminate partners who disagreed with the chancellor’s projects.

It is important to remember that Scholz publicly acknowledged the Ukrainian issue as responsible for the crisis in the coalition. Germany is going through a time of great economic and budgetary difficulties. The economic and energy crisis and the large public spending to reverse the “side effects” of the anti-Russian sanctions have harmed various sectors of German society. In parallel to all this, the pro-Scholz wing maintains a policy of support for Ukraine that further expands expenses, creating a worrying budget imbalance.

Having seen the devastating effects of supporting Ukraine on German domestic politics, Scholz desperately tried to reverse this situation by “softening” his Ukrainian policy. He refused to send long-range weapons to the Kiev regime, despite the international pressure to do so and the recent wave of “deep strikes” with direct NATO participation. In addition, he had a direct conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a telephone call, which caused outrage among his Western and Ukrainian partners. More than that, Scholz promised to call Putin more often, arguing that it is vital that European politicians participate more actively in the diplomatic process.

Not even this “change” in stance was enough to improve the public image of the German prime minister, who continued to face strong opposition in parliament, in addition to growing unpopularity. The growth of the German political right, both with the conservative nationalists of the AfD and the “moderate” Christian Democrats of the CDU, shows that Scholz’s political image is already exhausted, with the people and parliament demanding changes that he has proven incapable of achieving.

The problem is that Scholz will remain in office until the next election, which raises concerns for all sides of German politics. Scholz is expected to run again, representing the Social Democratic Party (SPD). His main rival will be the Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, whose popularity seems to be growing in parallel with Scholz’s decline.

There are two possibilities: either Scholz will adopt an even more moderate stance on Ukraine until the election, in an attempt to gain support from the wing that wants to reduce German war spending; or he will adopt a kind of “suicide stance” and engage in a wave of all-out escalation, similar to what Biden is doing in his final days in the White House, since his chances of re-election are slim.

Scholz’s case is just one more in the great political crisis in the West since 2022. The special military operation had a profound effect on the West, indirectly causing the fall of several political leaders who proved incapable of dealing with the reality of the conflict. The more bellicose and active in the war in favor of Ukraine, the more unpopular Western leaders become and lose the trust of their own voters and supporters, becoming weak and vulnerable politicians.

Indeed, it is currently impossible for a Western leader to pursue a policy of full support for Ukraine. The fact that, unlike the pro-war countries, states like Hungary and Slovakia remain strong and stable, with their leaders enjoying broad popular support, is proof that Kiev is a destabilizing factor for the West. Scholz realized this too late and could not prevent his own collapse.

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.

You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.

December 17, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Militarism | | 1 Comment

Germany’s AfD leader questions NATO membership

RT | December 15, 2024

Germany must ask whether NATO membership “is still useful for us,” Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-leader Tino Chrupalla has said, arguing that the US-led military bloc forces Europe to act in America’s interests.

”Europe has been forced to implement America’s interests. We reject that,” Chrupalla told German daily Welt on Sunday.

”NATO is currently not a defense alliance,” he continued. “A defense community must accept and respect the interests of all European countries, including Russia’s interests. If NATO cannot ensure that, Germany must consider to what extent this alliance is still useful for us,” he explained.

West Germany joined NATO in 1955, at the height of the Cold War. Accession to the bloc meant that Bonn could focus its spending on post-WWII reconstruction and welfare while outsourcing defense to the US. However, NATO’s first secretary general, Britain’s Lord Ismay, reportedly remarked that the bloc’s purpose in Europe was to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”

While the AfD’s platform has never called for an outright withdrawal from NATO, Chrupalla has previously argued that the bloc’s confrontational stance toward Russia was “driving a wedge into the continent of Europe” and precluding reconciliation with Moscow, which, he said, would be vital “to ensure lasting peace and prosperity” on the continent.

With snap elections in February looming, the AfD is currently polling at around 18%, ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ Social Democrats at 15% but behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 32%. However, even if the AfD were to emerge as the largest party after the vote, all of Germany’s other mainstream parties have ruled out entering a coalition with the right-wingers.

The AfD nominated co-leader Alice Weidel as its candidate for chancellor earlier this month, marking the first time in its 11-year history that the party has put a name forward for the position.

Speaking to reporters after the nomination, Weidel promised to introduce drastic immigration restrictions, to roll back Scholz’s climate policies, and to cut off military aid to Ukraine.

“We want peace in Ukraine,” she said. “We do not want any arms supplies, we do not want any tanks, we do not want any missiles.”

Speaking to Welt, Chrupalla said that “Russia has won this war,” and that “reality has caught up with those who claim to want to enable Ukraine to win the war.”

December 15, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , , | 1 Comment

Can Europe be saved?

Professor Glenn Diesen interviewed by Dimitri Lascaris
Glenn Diesen | December 11, 2024

I was interviewed by Dimitri Lascaris about the future of Europe. I argue that Europe’s decline derives from its inability to adjust to a multipolar international system. Europe can become one of several centres of power by pursuing collective bargaining power based on common interests, diversifying economic partnerships to avoid excessive dependence on the US, and overcoming the Cold War legacy of zero-sum bloc politics.

The Europeans have done the exact opposite. The European security architecture has been built on the premise that expanding a military alliance ever closer to Russian borders would create peace and stability. Relations with Russia have subsequently collapsed and Europe is losing a costly proxy war against the world’s largest nuclear power. Countries in the shared neighbourhood (Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova) are destabilised and their democracy undermined to ensure pro-West/anti-Russia governments take power. These deeply divided societies have become the battleground for drawing new dividing lines in the new Cold War.

European economies are deindustrialising as they cut themselves off from the Russian market, and are also pressured by the US to decouple from the Chinese market. The US Inflation Reduction Act offers subsidies to what remains of struggling European industries if they relocate to the US. Excessive reliance on the US means that Europe cannot even criticise the US for destroying its energy infrastructure after the attack on Nord Stream. After centuries of a Europe-centric international system, the Europeans have not realised that they have been demoted from a subject to an object of security.

Governments that do not represent national interests will eventually be swept away, yet the political elites become increasingly authoritarian to keep their power. In France and Germany, their political opposition is pushed aside with undemocratic means. Hungary and Slovakia are punished by the EU for failing to fall in line. The election results in Romania were overturned after the electorate did not vote for the right candidate.

The continent desperately needs course correction, yet power structure and ideology prevent necessary changes from being implemented. More aggressive means to control the narrative also result in declining freedom of speech.

December 12, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Militarism, Russophobia | , , , , , | 1 Comment

Merkel Testing Public Opinion With Recent Praise of Russian Gas, German Politician Suggests

Sputnik – 12.12.2024

The head of the German Council for Constitution and Sovereignty, Ralph Niemeyer commented on national politics in the light of governmental crisis.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s recent remarks about the benefits of past gas supplies from Russia could have been an attempt to test public opinion on the possibility of resuming such supplies under a future government involving the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the head of the German Council for Constitution and Sovereignty, Ralph Niemeyer, told Sputnik.

Merkel said on Tuesday that she did not consider the years-long gas imports from Russia to Germany a mistake, noting that the arrangement was mutually beneficial.

“It is possible [that the statement was a test of public opinion]. A good quality of Friedrich Merz [CDU leader and chancellor candidate] is pragmatism. If he sees no other way forward, he quickly changes his approach,” Niemeyer said.

Merz could pragmatically disregard earlier promises to Volodymyr Zelensky and work to rebuild relations with Russia, he added.

The German government collapsed in early November after Chancellor Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) leader, citing his unwillingness to greenlight new proposals for the 2025 budget and more aid for Ukraine.

As a result of the government split, February 23 has been set as the potential date for a snap general election. Scholz will submit a written request for a vote of confidence to parliament on December 11, with a vote to be scheduled for December 16.

If Scholz survives the vote of confidence, he will enter coalition talks with rival parties in a bid to prop up his minority government, which consists of the Social Democrats and the Greens. This scenario is considered unlikely due to a near-universal agreement in parliament on the need to hold an early election.

December 12, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Russophobia | | Leave a comment

Slovak MP Slams EU Leadership’s ‘Idiotic’ Russian Gas Sanctions

Sputnik – December 11, 2024

Reducing energy dependence on Russia became one of the European Union’s top priorities after the West unleashed its sanctions campaign against Moscow in 2022. The move has backfired on the continent, leaving Europe facing a crippling energy crisis, while Russia retained its position as the world’s largest gas exporter in 2023.

If the EU wants to drive its economy off a cliff, its self-destructive goal of halting Russian gas flows will get that result, Andrej Danko, deputy speaker of the National Council of the Slovak Republic, told Sputnik.

Ending imports of Russian gas will be a huge problem, he warned, adding that “whoever claims that this is not true is a fool.”

“Therefore, we need to talk about this problem, and a solution is needed,” Danko underscored.

The Slovak politician is set to visit Moscow in January to discuss prospects for Russian gas supplies in 2025.

He weighed in on EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s crusade of totally banning both Russian piped gas and LNG, specifically, recent remarks about wanting to discuss with US President-elect Donald Trump an increase in purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to replace Russian supplies.

The Slovak lawmaker admitted he was puzzled by her proposal.

“How much would US gas imports cost? What was the purpose then of Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2? What do they want to achieve? This will be a problem for Germany, where Ursula is from originally… If she wants to live in America later, then I get it. But if Ursula is going to live in the European Union, it’s impossible to understand her… It’s inconceivable for a person of her rank to say something like that,” Danko said.

Gas prices exceeded $500 per thousand cubic meters in Europe in November, with European gas futures reaching around €46 ($48.6) per MWh as Russia suspended fuel deliveries to Austria’s OMV. Furthermore, Ukraine is about to stop the transit of Russia’s gas through its territory by the end of the year, which could affect several European nations, including Austria and Slovakia.

Unless the EU changes its self-harming policy course, it won’t exist in 10 years’ time, Danko speculated. EU sanctions on Russian energy have generated a terrible situation, according to him, and people like Ursula von der Leyen are only driving the bloc’s economy into the ground.

He also voiced hope for dialogue between Moscow and Washington under incoming President Donald Trump. As for Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, he “does nothing for his people, he only creates problems,” Danko noted, likening the expired Kiev regime leader to a chattering “con artist.”

The EU’s energy problems are also linked to the Green Deal, Danko said, which “some jokers had come up with,” and foolhardy talk about scrapping nuclear energy.

He claimed the biggest problems were created by shutting down nuclear power plants under Germany’s then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Codified in a 2002 law, the nuclear phase-out in Germany was finalized after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan. The country’s last trio of operating nuclear power plants, Emsland, Neckarwestheim 2, and Isar 2, were finally shuttered on April 15, 2023.

Berlin’s move to join the West’s energy sanctions against Russia and give up Moscow’s reliable and abundant energy supplies, along with the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage and the “green agenda” aimed at replacing fossil fuels and phasing out nuclear energy, have all contributed to Germany’s dismal economic data and looming deindustrialization.

Assessing the litany of mistakes made by the European Union, Danko speculated that if the continent hopes to achieve progress in energy and the economy, a fresh influx of “parties of the people” is needed to breathe new life into the EU.

December 11, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Russophobia | , , | Leave a comment

Iran rejects latest E3 allegations about its peaceful nuclear program

Press TV – December 11, 2024

Iran has rejected the latest allegations about its peaceful nuclear program by three European countries, saying it will give an appropriate response to any confrontational move.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei made the remarks on Tuesday while responding to a joint statement by France, Germany, and the UK that accused Iran of failing to honor its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal and UNSC Resolution 2231, urging Iran to halt what they termed as “nuclear escalation.”

The European statement came after a report by the UN nuclear watchdog indicating that Tehran had stepped up uranium enrichment activity, fulfilling its pledge to respond to a Western-sponsored censure resolution criticizing the country for what was described as a lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Iran has reduced its commitments under the JCPOA over the past years following the re-imposition of sanctions lifted under the accord and the failure of European parties to compensate for the losses incurred by Iran.

Baghaei said the recent decision of the Iranian government was to activate more advanced centrifuges, within the framework of specific rights given under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and with due notification and under the supervision of the IAEA.

“As a responsible member of the IAEA, the Islamic Republic of Iran has proven its commitment to cooperation with this institution, and the understandings reached during the visit of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency to Tehran on 14-15 November,” he said.

The spokesman added that “it is regrettable that the three European countries, regardless of the achievements of the Director General’s visit, which could have been a basis for strengthening cooperation in the future, insisted on their unconstructive approach and proceeded to pass a resolution against Iran.”

Referring to a November 29 meeting with representatives of the three European countries in Geneva, Baghaei stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to believe in constructive interaction based on mutual respect.

“At the same time, the Islamic Republic of Iran will respond to any confrontational and illegal behavior within the framework of its legal rights and in an appropriate manner,” he stated.

Baghaei noted that the root cause of the situation stems from the US withdrawal from the deal and the failure of the E3 to fulfill their commitments.

He emphasized the importance of mutual adherence to the path of constructive interaction and advised the three European countries to address the root cause and reason for the current situation, which is a combination of continuous breach of commitment and the illegal policy of pressure and sanctions against the Iranian nation.

Earlier, Iran’s UN envoy, Amir-Saeid Iravani rejected Western allegations of non-compliance with its JCPOA commitments as “disingenuous and hypocritical.”

He called on the European parties to the 2015 nuclear accord to abandon their campaign of pressure against Iran and make real efforts to revive the deal.

He made the call in a letter addressed to the UN Security Council and UN chief Antonio Guterres.

December 11, 2024 Posted by | Progressive Hypocrite | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Russian gas was ‘win-win’ – Merkel

RT | December 10, 2024

Buying natural gas from Russia was a good deal, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said, rejecting suggestions that it may have been a strategic mistake.

Merkel, who served as chancellor from 2005 to 2021, was in Paris this week to promote her memoir. She gave an exclusive interview to state TV channel France 2, in which she was asked about Germany’s energy relationship with Russia.

“The gas trade with Russia has a deep-rooted tradition. It began during the Cold War and continued throughout my time in office. I do not think it was a mistake, because we obtained Russian gas at a favorable price,” Merkel said in the interview, which aired on Monday evening.

“It was a win-win situation,” the former chancellor added.

Following the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Germany had to source gas elsewhere because “prices exploded,” Merkel said, noting that this would have happened much earlier had Berlin stopped doing business with Moscow during her term.

“I believe it is reasonable to procure the most affordable gas,” she told France 2.

Earlier on her press tour, Merkel also defended the decision to build Nord Stream 2, noting that she had “no support from the business community to stop the gas trade with Russia” at the time. The project was launched in 2015 and the first pipes were laid in 2018.

While the government of Merkel’s successor, Olaf Scholz, has accused Moscow of “shutting off” gas to Germany, his coalition partner Robert Habeck had moved to end the energy trade long before the Ukraine conflict and EU sanctions on Russia provided the pretext. The Green Party leader presented giving up gas for “renewables” as an environmentally responsible policy choice.

Berlin thus refused to certify the newly finished Nord Stream 2 pipeline in January 2022. Nord Stream 1 was destroyed by a series of underwater explosions in September 2022. Investigations by Germany, Sweden, and Denmark have not pointed to a culprit yet, though German media reports have blamed a “rogue” group of Ukrainians.

One of the lines of Nord Stream 2 survived the bombing unharmed and could still deliver gas to Germany should Berlin change its policy and certify the pipeline.

The loss of Russian gas and reliance on the far more expensive US alternative has since pushed energy prices in Germany beyond what a lot of industrial enterprises could afford, triggering a wave of shutdowns and bankruptcies.

In a December 2022 interview, Merkel revealed that Germany and France considered the Minsk Agreements – a framework to peacefully resolve the dispute between Kiev and the two Donbass republics – as a play for time until the West could arm Ukraine for a confrontation with Russia. Former French President Francois Hollande has confirmed her claim.

December 10, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity | , | Leave a comment

Germany Deindustrialising & Subordinated

Sevim Dağdelen, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
Glenn Diesen | Dec 2, 2024

I had the pleasure to speak with Sevim Dağdelen (member of parliament) and Alexander Mercouris about the changes within Germany and its role in the world. Germany has been the economic powerhouse pulling the EU forward and it represented a peaceful way to do politics. Yet, Germany changed fundamentally within a relatively short period of time as the German economic locomotive has gone off the rails. Germany is de-industrialising, it has subordinated itself to the US, and there is an absence of political leadership. It fuels the proxy war in Ukraine and supports genocide in Palestine. German is pursuing self-harm as it keeps buying Russian oil from India at a much higher cost, buying expensive American LNG after the Americans destroyed their energy infrastructure, and Germany gave Joe Biden a medal even as the US Inflation Reduction Act relocates German industries to the US. Sevim Dağdelen explains how Germany ended up pursuing these seemingly irrational policies, and she outlines alternatives to turn things around.

Watch at Odysee

December 7, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Militarism | , | 1 Comment

Belarus to Host Russia’s Oreshnik in Response to US Missiles in Germany

Sputnik – December 7, 2024

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to deploy the latest Russian weapons, including the Oreshnik system, on Belarusian soil on Friday following a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State.

“The decision to deploy the Oreshnik system on the territory of the Republic of Belarus was made in response to the actions taken by the United States and Germany regarding the deployment of intermediate-range missiles in Europe. The Americans and Germans have repeatedly stated this before,” the Belarusian Ministry of Defense’s Telegram channel quoted

Here are some official statements of the sides at the time.

  • Washington and Berlin: “The US will begin episodic deployments of the long-range firing capabilities of its multi-domain task force in Germany in 2026. These will include SM-6, Tomahawk, and developmental hypersonic weapons, which have significantly longer range than current land-based fires in Europe.”
  • US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan: “What we are deploying to Germany is a defensive capability, like many other defensive capabilities we’ve deployed across the alliance, across the decades.”
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz: This is a “very good decision” which is “exactly in line” with the German government’s security strategy. “The decision has been in the works for a long time and is not a real surprise for anyone involved in security and peace policy.”
  • German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius: Germany needs a longer-term plan for investment in “appropriate long-range defense systems” to protect itself and Europe.
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov: The move is “a very serious threat” to Russia, which would “take thoughtful, coordinated and effective measures to contain NATO.”
  • Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: “Without nerves and emotions, we will develop, first of all, a military response” to the move, which is “just another link in the chain of a course of escalation”.

In response, the Russian leader agreed, stating that the deployment of Oreshnik in Belarus was possible in the second half of 2025.

December 7, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , , | Leave a comment

Prospective German chancellor calls for end to arming Kiev

Alice Weidel speaks to reporters at an AfD convention in Berlin, Germany, December 7, 2024 © Getty Images / Maryam Majd
RT | December 7, 2024

The co-leader of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Alice Weidel, has said that she will oppose any arms supplies to Ukraine if she succeeds Olaf Scholz as the country’s chancellor.

AfD nominated Weidel as its candidate for the post on Saturday, in the party’s first bid for the chancellery in its 11-year history. It has steadily risen in popularity since its founding in 2013, and is currently Germany’s second-strongest political force.

Speaking to reporters after the nomination, Weidel promised to introduce drastic immigration restrictions, to roll back Scholz’ climate policies, and to cut off military aid to Ukraine.

”We want peace in Ukraine,” the 45-year-old said. “We do not want any arms supplies, we do not want any tanks, we do not want any missiles. We do not want Taurus for Ukraine, which would make Germany a party to the war,” she added, referring to a type of German-made cruise missile that would require German military personnel to be deployed to Ukraine to operate.

The AfD, Weidel declared, is a “peace party.”

Scholz, along with his Green and Free Democrat coalition partners, overturned decades of foreign-policy pacifism in 2022 when they decided to supply weapons to the Ukrainian military. Since then, Berlin has sent Kiev almost €17 billion ($17.9 billion) in military, economic, and humanitarian aid, according to government figures. Although initially reluctant to supply heavy weapons, Scholz has authorized the transfer to Ukraine of tanks, artillery guns, anti-air missiles, and armored vehicles.

Before 2022, Germany relied on Russia for 55% of its supply of natural gas. Scholz’ decision to halt Russian energy imports, coupled with his government’s green policies, has led to soaring electricity costs, forcing some of the country’s manufacturing giants – including Volkswagen and BASF – to close plants and lay off workers.

Amid economic decline and disputes within his coalition, the Scholz government collapsed last month. The chancellor is expected to lose a confidence vote in parliament later this month, after which a snap election will likely be held in late February. His center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is currently polling at around 15%, with AfD at 18% and the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 32%.

Weidel has little chance of winning the chancellery. Even if the AfD were to emerge as the largest party in February, all of Germany’s other mainstream parties have ruled out entering a coalition with the right-wingers. After a string of regional election wins this year, 113 members of the 733-member Bundestag put forth a motion last month to ban the AfD as a “Nazi party” whose beliefs clash with the German constitution. Most of the lawmakers behind the proposal were Greens, joined by 31 members of the SPD and just six from the CDU.

December 7, 2024 Posted by | Civil Liberties, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Militarism, Progressive Hypocrite, Russophobia | , | Leave a comment

Germany is preparing for ‘possible outbreak of world war,’ says influential Hungarian professor

Remix News | December 5, 2024

The German army is preparing companies operating in the country for a possible outbreak of world war, said Tamás Kovács, head of the Department of Law Enforcement Theory and History at the National University of Public Service (NKE).

As a part of this effort, the government has begun to assess German industry, which could be a cautious and necessary step, but the timing suggests that the German government is preparing for the war to escalate and become even more brutal.

“The fact that these surveys have begun can be interpreted as a sign of war preparations on the part of Germany,” Kovács told Hungarian news outlet Hirado.hu. “The German army is preparing companies operating in the country for a possible outbreak of world war.”

Hirado notes that German media has reported that the country has begun a census of bunkers and fortified buildings that could serve as shelters in the event of a war, as well as investigating how industry would hold up in wartime. There were at one time 2,000 bunkers and shelters in Germany, but now only 500 exist.

“The German government wants to be aware of what the industry and the economy are capable of: what they can produce, how quickly they can produce it, and of course how much energy they need. There may therefore be a number of practical considerations behind the fact that they have started to assess German industry,” said Kovács.

“These surveys could be cautious, necessary steps, as it is not a problem in itself if a country is aware of its own resources and their limitations, not least the number of potential shelters and their condition. The fact that all this is happening at exactly this time unfortunately predicts, at least in my reading, that the German and Swedish governments are really preparing for this war to escalate.”

The Hungarian expert believes that claims the war will wind down under Trump may not unfold as predicted and that the war will actually expand.

“I will be even rougher. It is questionable what will happen if the relationship between the EU and Russia deteriorates further and becomes so frosty that there will be no communication between the two parties,” said the head of the NKE department.

The professor also deals with the question of how Germany’s massively growing immigrant population would respond to war conditions. When asked what the government would do in a war situation with the recent influx of migrants who are not very motivated in terms of everyday work or national defense, Tamás Kovács said: “It is inconceivable what would motivate these people in a war situation, and especially how. I’m almost certain that their first thought wouldn’t be, ‘Let’s join the German army and defend the Germany that actually took us in.’”

Regarding the upcoming German elections and a possible turnaround, he said: It is questionable whether the new German government will continue Scholz’s policies or return to historical roots and strive for some kind of consolidated relationship with Russia. Although it is also questionable whether the Russians would like to have close relations with Germany after the events of recent years, at least in the short term, he stressed.

“It is a fact that the Hungarian economy is very dependent on the German one; if there are problems in the German economy, the Hungarian economy will also feel it. Obviously, German capital investments and economic influence are generally strong in the region, so the entire region will feel it if the German economy is not doing well. However, if peace were to suddenly break out, or at least a ceasefire were to be signed by the two sides, that would greatly improve economic prospects,” said Kovács regarding the expected domestic and regional effects of the war crisis.

December 5, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , , | Leave a comment

Why Biden Allowed Ukraine to Fire US missiles into Russia

By Salman Rafi Sheikh – New Eastern Outlook – December 5, 2024

Washington’s (and London’s) decision to allow Ukraine to fire their missiles into Russia is a clear escalation, but the timing explains most of the puzzle underlying this decision.

It is not just Biden being reckless. It is not simply madness, either. It is politics with a touch of global geopolitics.

The Biden administration, having lost both presidential and congressional elections to the Republicans, appears to be following a scorched-earth policy. Before Trump is sworn in, and before he can move towards a negotiated resolution of the Russia-Ukraine (NATO) military conflict in 2025, the outgoing administration seems willing to make issues much more complicated – and deadly – than they currently are. At the heart of these calculated escalations is the American “deep state” unhappy with Trump’s success and the prospects of him pulling NATO back from Ukraine, thus undoing American hegemony. Trump claimed, during his campaign, that he will end wars. The American “deep state” does not want to let him do this – at least, not easily.

The Timing

For a long time, the Biden administration resisted allowing Ukraine to fire US missiles into Russian territory. This firing represents a “new phase” in the ongoing conflict for Moscow. There is potentially no other way for Moscow to see things. A pro-Democrats response is that the decision was motivated by the Biden administration’s desire to strengthen Ukraine’s position vis-à-vis Russia in the wake of upcoming possible negotiations. However, if this truly was the main intention, why did the Biden administration not reach the same conclusion during the peak time of the presidency, i.e., a year earlier, for instance? The Biden administration could have done the same escalation, hoping that this would push Russia to come to the negotiating table. Except, the Biden administration did not make such a decision for one chief reason.

They understood Moscow’s response would be deadlier, which would escalate the war more than Washington and NATO could handle. A deadly escalation, the Biden administration maintained, could cost them the elections. Now that they have already lost the elections – and there is nothing they can do about it now – they are escalating the war deliberately to scuttle the Trump administration. If the war escalates, it will make it harder for the Trump administration to negotiate with Russia. It will also make it harder for the Trump administration to negotiate with US allies in Europe as well. The more complicated the issue becomes, the more time it will take to find a resolution. Overall, this will give the Democrats a political opportunity to shift the blame to the Trump administration for its failure to quickly end conflicts. For the Democrats, this could be one of the key points they could raise in the midterm elections.

A key official of the Biden administration indirectly acknowledged the politics driving the decision. Matthew Miller, State Department spokesperson, defended the decision during a press briefing saying that the “American people elected Joe Biden to a four-year term, not to a term of three years and 10 months, and we will use every day of our term to pursue the foreign policy interests that, we believe, are in the interests of the American people.” One caveat is that the only interest that matters here is that of the Democrats.

The Reactions

The Trump administration understands this politics. In a post on X, Donald Trump Jr said the change was aimed at getting “World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives”. Trump’s pick for national security adviser, US Representative Mike Waltz, called it “another step up the escalation ladder … and nobody knows where this is going,” he said on Fox News. Former Trump cabinet member Richard Grenell also accused Biden of moving to “escalate the war in Ukraine during the transition period”. “This is as if he is launching a whole new war. Everything has changed now. All previous calculations are null and void,” he added.

This reaction makes sense because Ukraine has received only a few dozen of the ATACMS systems. If the Biden administration really wanted to strengthen Ukraine’s position, a first step would have been to ensure sufficient supplies of this system. If Ukraine is likely to fire up its entire stockpile too quickly to make any meaningful impact, the only sense this escalation makes is that it makes a negotiated end of the conflict much more complicated. Anymore escalation before Trump assumes control in January – and this escalation is very much possible – means the conflict will continue to rage in the months to come.

The End Game

Most people understand that the Trump administration would bring the conflict to an end. For one thing, Trump does not intend to use military conflicts to advance US foreign policy interests. Secondly, Trump has the “America First” policy at the heart of his politics. People who understand how misfit military conflicts are within the Trump camp include not only the Democrats but also Ukraine’s own president, who went on record two weeks ago to say that the conflict will end “sooner” now that Trump has won.

For the anti-Russia camp within the American “deep state”, this expectation is deeply unsettling. It would mean NATO will not be able to expand into Europe any further. NATO’s failure will create fresh openings for European states to chart their own foreign policy courses, including relations with Russia. In fact, this is already happening. When the German chancellor recently spoke with the Russian President, he did not do so to merely talk about the possibility of ending the conflict, but also to get a sense of their post-conflict bilateral relations. More importantly, Germany initiated the call. There is, thus, a possibility of Germany resuming gas supplies from Russia. Indeed, both leaders discussed the possibility of “cooperation” on energy trade.

In Washington, the fear is that this one call is going to encourage other European leaders to pick up their phones and talk to Vladimir Putin. It means Washington will lose control of the situation. These people in Washington do not want to let that happen; hence, a key geopolitical reason to escalate the conflict is to scuttle the end gam, which is very much on the horizon already.

Salman Rafi Sheikh is a research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs.

December 5, 2024 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , , , | 1 Comment

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