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Ukraine ‘an invented state’ – Romanian election frontrunner

RT | January 30, 2025

Calin Georgescu, the politician whose first-round victory in the Romanian presidential election was overturned by the Constitutional Court, has argued that the borders claimed by Ukraine were artificially drawn and are subject to inevitable change.

The staunch critic of Western policies made the remarks on Wednesday in an interview with political analyst Ion Cristoiu on YouTube. He was discussing the adjustments of European borders after World War II, which resulted in a transfer of territories to Soviet Ukraine. Georgescu said he expects Ukraine to be fragmented as part of a peace deal with Russia, along historical lines.

”This will happen 100%. The path to an outcome like that is inevitable,” he asserted. “Ukraine is an invented state.”

Parts of the historic areas of Bukovina and Bessarabia, which were ceded from Romania to Ukraine during the post-war settlement, are “of interest” to Bucharest, Georgescu said, adding that Hungary and Poland could also claim their historic lands in a hypothetical breakup of Ukraine.

Georgescu made headlines in November when he unexpectedly garnered 23% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election in Romania, a NATO member. However, the Constitutional Court annulled the results shortly before the second round, citing intelligence documents alleging ‘irregularities’ in the campaign.

Subsequent media reports revealed that Georgescu’s candidacy was boosted by a firm closely linked with the pro-Western National Liberal Party (PNL), seemingly to undermine another candidate. The Romanian government has claimed that Russia was behind the interference scheme. Georgescu leads in opinion polls and is projected to get 38% of the vote in the upcoming election re-run in May.

Russian President Vladimir Putin previously warned about the threat of potential separatism in Western Ukraine, driven by ethnic minorities’ wish “to return to their historic homeland,” with potential support from foreign governments.

”In that sense, only Russia could serve as a guarantor of Ukrainian territorial integrity,” he claimed in late 2023. “If [Ukrainians] don’t want that, so be it. History will set things straight. We will not stand in the way, but neither will we relinquish what is rightfully ours.”

January 30, 2025 Posted by | Civil Liberties | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Musk’s X should be banned in Poland during election campaign, says journalist on state-run television

Remix News | January 10, 2025

In the TVP Info program, journalist Dorota Wysocka-Schnepf, who hosts major television shows on the state-run network, suggested that the authorities should completely shutdown the X portal during the presidential election campaign, which would amount to a form of mass censorship not seen in Poland since communist times.

“We live in a situation where disinformation can come to us not only from the East, but the West can also poison us with content that will have nothing to do with the truth,” said Dorota Wysocka-Schnepf.

The shocking suggestion was made on the “Dangerous Liaisons” program, which is broadcast by state-run TVP Info. Dorota Wysocka-Schnepf’s guests were Prof. Anna Siewierska-Chmaj from the University of Rzeszów and Dr. Katarzyna Bąkowicz from SWPS, according to Polish outlet Do Rzeczy.

In response, Dr. Katarzyna Bąkowicz said: “We know that there are organized criminal groups that spread disinformation. It’s not just Russia or China. We have to remember that disinformation has become an element of political struggle. What Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, who joined in, are doing is opening Pandora’s box.”

Prof. Anna Siewierska-Chmaj responded with what appeared to be supportive statements, saying that Elon Musk does not hide the fact that he is fascinated by European politics and wants to change it, with Musk’s comments about Great Britain the latest example.

“What shocks me the most is Germany and its support for the post-fascist AfD, and we should be afraid of that,” said Wysocka-Schnepf.

“Of course, the AfD’s victory fuels the Polish right, so it is de facto influencing the Polish elections,” replied Prof. Siewierska-Chmaj.

Then, the journalist’s shocking words about the need to consider closing Musk’s portal for the duration of the election campaign were uttered.

“We are in such a situation, more and more countries are announcing the closure of TikTok for fear of Chinese propaganda, so should we seriously consider that maybe X should be closed for the duration of the election campaign,” said Dorota Wysocka-Schnepf.

“This would be a very radical solution… but we need to think about regulating this area,” replied Dr. Bąkowicz.

January 10, 2025 Posted by | Civil Liberties, Full Spectrum Dominance, Progressive Hypocrite | | Leave a comment

Telegram blocking Russian media in EU

RT | December 28, 2024

The Telegram channels of multiple major Russian news outlets were rendered inaccessible across the EU on Sunday. The affected channels now display a plaque stating that access to them has been restricted over alleged “violation of local laws,” with all the content unavailable.

According to media reports, the affected channels include such Russian majors as RIA Novosti, Izvestia, Rossiya 1, Channel One, NTV and Rossiyskaya Gazeta. While it was not immediately clear whether the bans are EU-wide, the restrictions have been reportedly rolled out in Poland, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Greece, Italy and the Czech Republic.

The EU has taken multiple hostile steps against Russian media amid the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev – and even before it. Some of the media affected in the apparent Telegram ban, namely Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Izvestia and RIA Novosti, were slapped with a broadcasting ban in the bloc in May. At the time, the EU Council claimed the outlets were under the “permanent direct or indirect control” of the Russian leadership, and played an “essential and instrumental” role in the hostilities.

No official statements have so far been made on the matter, either by Telegram, the EU as a whole or by individual members of the bloc.

December 28, 2024 Posted by | Civil Liberties, Full Spectrum Dominance | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Poles recall RFK Jr. battled US corporate farming giant

Over two decades ago, Robert Kennedy Jr. took on Smithfield Foods in Poland over its actions to eliminate its competition, small family farms

By Liz Heflin | Remix News | November 25, 2024

RFK Jr. says the second in command at Smithfield Foods in Poland offered a $1 million bribe to a state official to pass legislation to essentially shut down local hog production.

The reveal was made during a podcast with farming expert Joel Salatin. The official turned Smithfield in over the bribe attempt, but others were quick to take the bribe and pass the desired legislation.

None of this is new news. However, RFK Jr.’s alliance with Trump, not to mention being nominated to serve as secretary of health and human services in his administration, has given him a new platform to draw attention to the issues surrounding commercial farming and the food we eat.

And when I say not new, I mean, this topic has been around for a couple decades, actually more.

A 2003 article from Ecologist highlighted the issues with the way Smithfield and “fellow industrial pork producers” delivered bacon, chops and other pork products to American consumers. The article stated these entities had “driven tens of thousands of family farmers off the land, shattered rural communities, poisoned thousands of miles of US waterways, killed billions of fish, put thousands of fishermen out of work, sickened rural residents and treated hundreds of millions of farm animals with unspeakable and unnecessary cruelty.”

Pretty harsh. And then, Smithfield turned its eyes to greener pastures. Where? All the way over in Poland, fresh out of its decades-long stint under the iron fist of communist rule. What may not be known by many was the rather strong presence, i.e., high number, of family farms that survived under communism. Kennedy refers to this himself in the podcast around minute 25, “small farms that were self-sufficient farms” and that had no money for chemicals.

However, despite surviving well under communism, these family farms could never have expected the “free market” might of “private” concerns that would come knocking at their doors, or more like come to knock their doors down.

“In 1999, Smithfield began buying slaughterhouses and state farms in Poland. On July 22 this year (2003), the firm’s vice president promised Poland’s Senate agricultural committee that Smithfield will ‘modernise’ Polish agriculture and bring prosperity and jobs to rural communities,” reads the Ecologist article.

Now 25 years later, RFK Jr., is bringing to light again exactly what happened in the name of American capitalism all those years ago.

Smithfield, he tells Salatin on the podcast, had come in and bought the old Soviet slaughterhouses and was modernizing these massive facilities. The legislation that Smithfield initiated stated that you could not operate a slaughterhouse if it did not have laser-automated faucets in the bathrooms, technology that small slaughterhouses servicing local family farms would not be able to afford. In this way, as Kennedy says, “in one fell swoop,” all of Smithfield’s competitors in Poland were put out of business. Kennedy did not clarify what year this happened.

There is pretty hefty coverage of the lawsuits between environmental groups, including RFK Jr.’s Waterkeeper Alliance, and Smithfield in the U.S., alleging, for example, that the giant put small farms out of business and polluted soil. One class action suit against Smithfield that Kennedy was a part of was thrown out in 2002.

What’s crazy is that this battle reached all the way to Poland. In a letter to the Polish prime minister, dated February 2004, MP Anna Sobecka presented a brief history of Smithfield’s practices back in the U.S., including that “one of the slaughterhouse’s managers was sentenced to prison for falsifying records in the case.”

“Smithfield Foods, the owner of the Animex Wielkopolska company it bought out, is constantly breaking the law by placing large piles of manure in nearby fields near the village of Więckowice without permits. Another such pile was recently built in Sierosław, near Więckowice. This is an expression of complete disregard for the recommendations of Polish officials,” the letter reads. The MP goes on to say that for unknown reasons, the company was still awarded the “Crystal Globe of Export Leaders” by the minister of economy, labor and social policy.

The primary concern of the letter was related to “several large piles of pigsty waste without the required permits and without the slightest safeguards” near Niepruszewickie Lake. It was then alleged that hazardous chemicals seeped into the lake and ended up causing illnesses, particularly in children, in the nearby town of Więckowice.

She adds that “Robert F. Kennedy Jr., representing American farmers, has visited Poland several times to warn against Smithfield Foods’ destructive activities. Kennedy warned that further expansion of the company could threaten to destroy Polish family farms. Kennedy’s speeches provoked a panic among Smithfield Foods management, which filed a defamation suit against the American politician in the district court in Poznań,” adding that “the documents and evidence available to the American politician clearly confirm the allegations he made against Smithfield Foods.”

This letter came after Smithfield’s subsidiary in Poland had sued Kennedy in Poznan for his remarks about the company’s practices during a debate in the Sejm, the Polish parliament, where he reportedly called it a “mafia organization” that violates environmental regulations and accused parties involved of selling out Polish small farmers and consumers for profits. The outcome of that suit is unclear. However, another suit filed against Smithfield by a group including Kennedy was dismissed by the judge, with all parties ordered to pay Smithfield’s legal fees.

What is also very clear is that the world today is an even smaller place than back then, and Smithfood’s primary challenger has now been nominated to serve in the cabinet of the U.S. president.

Today, Smithfield is a Chinese-owned company, RFK Jr. says in the abovementioned podcast, adding that China owns some 30 percent to 40 percent of the hog production in the U.S.

“We’re in a colonial model. USDA now works for China by keeping little farmers out of business and strip-mining and commoditizing our natural resources, our farmland, and everything else.”

As to why RFK Jr. brought up Poland after all these years and if he plans to do something about their operations there is unknown.

He is on a mission for consumers everywhere to know their food is safe, wholesome, and healthy. As he also told Joel Salatin, “only the worst food is reaching the American public… and it’s high cost.”

He’s even teamed up with Trump’s wife, Melania, in an apparent attempt to get President-elect Trump off fast food. Good luck with that.

I highly recommend watching the full podcast with Joel Salatin, especially his explanation of “uberization” of the food system around minute 23.

November 25, 2024 Posted by | Corruption, Economics | , | 1 Comment

The US Approves Long-Range Missile Strikes on Russia

Crossing the Line Between Proxy War & Direct War

By Glenn Diesen | November 19, 2024

The discussions about authorising long-range missile strikes on Russia are profoundly dishonest and misleading. The political-media elites present deeply flawed arguments to support the conclusion that attacking Russia with long-range missiles does not cross the line between proxy war and direct war. NATO may be successful in deluding itself, yet for Russia there is no doubt that this is an act of war.

1) “Ukraine has the right to defend itself”

The argument that Ukraine has the right to defend itself as a justification for NATO to authorise long-range strikes into Russia is very manipulative. The public is pulled in with a very reasonable premise, based on the universal acceptance of the right to self-defence. Once the public has accepted the premise, then it is presented as a foregone conclusion that Ukraine should be supplied with long-range missiles to attack Russia. The extent of NATO’s involvement in the war, as the main issue, is subsequently eliminated entirely from the argument.

The point of departure in an honest discussion should start with the right question: When is the line between proxy war and direct war crossed? These are US long-range missiles, their use is entirely dependent on US intelligence and targeting, they will be operated by US soldiers and guided by US satellites. Launching them from Ukrainian territory does not make it any less of a direct US attack on Russia. The US did not use these weapons against Russia for three years as it would amount to a direct attack, yet now the media is attempting to sell the narrative of this merely being uncontroversial military aid to enable Ukraine to defend itself. The US and some of its NATO allies have decided to attack Russia directly, and they should be honest about this intention. Attempts to present this as merely giving military aid to Ukraine to defend itself is an irresponsible effort to shame any dissent and avoid a serious discussion about attacking the world’s largest nuclear power.

It is imperative to place oneself in the shoes of opponents and ask how we would interpret the situation and what we would do if the situation were reversed. The US and NATO have invaded many countries over the years, so we do not need to delve too deep into our imagination to set up a hypothetical scenario. How would we react if Russia sent long-range missiles, dependent on Russian intelligence and targeting, operated by Russian soldiers and guided by Russian satellites, to attack NATO countries under the guise of merely helping Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen of another country to defend itself. We are deluding ourselves if we pretend that this would not be interpreted as a direct attack, and despite the great risks involved, we would be compelled to retaliate to restore our deterrent.

President Putin warned in September 2024 that Russia would interpret this as a direct attack and the beginning of a NATO-Russia War, and Putin argued that Russia would respond accordingly. The clarity in his language makes it nearly impossible to walk back the commitment to strike back at NATO, which is a deliberate tactic in the game of chicken as Russia cannot swirl away.

Stories about thousands of North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine or Kursk are used to legitimise the attack on Russia. This is most likely NATO war propaganda as there would be some evidence if thousands of North Korean soldiers were fighting. The North Koreans training in Russia are likely intended as a deterrent in case NATO would go to war against Russia, which is now seemingly the case. However, even if North Koreans involve themselves in the fighting, it does not make NATO any less of a participant in the war by attacking Russia.

2) Russia does not dare to retaliate against NATO

The reluctance by Russia in the past to sufficiently retaliate against NATO’s incremental escalations has been presented as evidence for the false conclusion that Russia does not dare to respond. There is no doubt that Russia’s restraints have emboldened NATO. President Biden once argued that sending F-16s would result in a Third World War, such warnings now are denounced as “Russian propaganda”. Russia’s failure to respond when the US crossed that line meant that the US could argue it did not amount to a direct attack. The rules of proxy war subsequently changed.

Russia’s dilemma over the past three years has been to either respond at the risk of triggering a Third World War, or to gradually abandon its deterrent and embolden the US. With every NATO escalation, Russia is facing an ever-higher price for its restraints. Russia has been under pressure to set a final red line, and NATO becoming directly involved in striking Russia is when the proxy war becomes a direct war.

How will Russia respond? There are several more steps on the escalatory ladder before pushing the nuclear button. Russia can intensify strikes on Ukrainian political targets and infrastructure, introduce North Korean troops that were likely intended as a deterrent for a situation like this, strike NATO assets in the Black Sea and logistic centres in Poland or Romania, destroy satellites used for the attacks on Russia, or attack US/NATO military assets in other parts of the world under the guise of enabling other countries to defend themselves.

Russia’s response will also depend on how these missiles are used. The New York Times suggested that the use of these missiles would be limited and primarily used to assist Ukraine with the occupation of Kursk, which also makes the US an even more involved participant in the occupation of Russian territory. Yet, Russia must respond forcefully to any breach of its red lines to counter NATO’s incrementalism / salami tactics that aim to chop away at Russia’s deterrent. The purpose of such incrementalism is to avoid an excessive response from Russia. The US will predictably impose restrictions on how these weapons can be used as it engages in direct attacks on Russia, but gradually these restrictions will be removed.

The extent of Russia’s response will depend on the extent to which these weapons are effective. The war is evidently being won by Russia, which is why Moscow is cautious about any escalations as it only needs time. However, if these weapons would actually turn the tide of the war, then Russia would consider itself compelled to launch a powerful attack on NATO as Russia considers this to be a war for its survival. NATO should therefore hope that these weapons are not effective, which undermines the reasoning for using them at all.

The missiles can turn the tide of the war

The war has already been lost, and Washington previously admitted that these long-range missiles would not be a game changer. There are two reasons for escalating the war at this point, to further bleed Russia and to sabotage Trump’s objective to end the war.

There is overwhelming evidence that the overarching objective for sabotaging all paths to peace and fighting the proxy war in Ukraine has been to weaken Russia as a strategic rival. Even Zelensky recognised in March 2022 that some Western states wanted to use Ukraine as a proxy against Russia: “There are those in the West who don’t mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives”.[1] Both the Israeli and the Turkish mediators confirmed that the US and UK sabotaged the Istanbul peace agreement to fight Russia with Ukrainians, while interviews with top American and British diplomats revealed that the weakening of Russia and regime change in Moscow was the only acceptable outcome.[2]

The timing of Washington’s decision is also suspicious and appears to aim at sabotaging Trump’s plans to end the war. By comparison, Obama similarly threw a wrench into US-Russia relations in late 2016 as he was handing the White House over to Trump. The anti-Russian sanctions and expulsion of Russian diplomats were intended to sabotage Trump’s promise to get along with Russia. Biden appears to follow the same playbook by risking a Third World War to prevent peace from breaking out in Ukraine. Biden was too cognitively impaired to run for re-election, yet he is supposedly mentally fit to attack Russia as he prepares to leave the White House.

The world today is more dangerous than at any other time in history. The decision by the US to attack the world’s largest nuclear power is a desperate effort to restore global primacy. What makes this situation even more dangerous is the absurd self-deception across the West that results in us sleepwalking towards nuclear war. The public should be presented with more honest arguments when making the case for risking a third world war and nuclear annihilation.

[1] The Economist. ‘Volodymyr Zelensky on why Ukraine must defeat Putin’ The Economist, 27 March 2022.

[2] G. Diesen, ‘Sabotage of the Istanbul Peace Negotiations’, Substack, 13 October 2024, https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/sabotage-of-the-istanbul-peace-agreement

November 19, 2024 Posted by | Militarism, Progressive Hypocrite | , , , , | Leave a comment

US Opens Provocative Missile Base in Poland

By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | November 14, 2024

After nearly two decades, President George W. Bush’s plan to put the Aegis Ashore missile system in Poland was achieved this week. The system is capable of firing offensive missiles, and is viewed as a serious national security threat by Russia.

The base is located in Redzikowo, Northern Poland, near the Baltic coast. During the base’s opening ceremony, Polish President Andrzej Duda said, “The whole world will see clearly that this is not Russia’s sphere of interest anymore… From the Polish point of view, this is strategically the most important thing.”

Since the base was announced by Bush, Washington has asserted that the purpose of installing the missile defense system in Poland, and a second in Romania, was to protect Europe from Iranian missile attacks.

However, the launchers that fire the Aegis interceptors can also fire offensive Tomahawk missiles. Previously, the US fielded a variant of the Tomahawk that was capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. The Kremlin views the presence of the launchers in Eastern Europe as a strategic threat to Russia.

As the base was under planning and construction, Russian President Vladimir Putin pressed multiple American presidents not to deploy the Aegis Ashore systems in Poland and Romania. The Polish Foreign Minister noted during the opening ceremony, “Governments changed in the United States, in Poland, [since] this base was created. This base is a monument not only to the Polish-American alliance, its stability, but also to the Polish-Polish alliance.”

Moscow argued that the system’s MK-41 launchers violated the INF Treaty, a bilateral arms control pact between the US and Russia. The treaty explicitly outlaws the deployment of intermediate land-based offensive missile launchers. The MK-41 can fire Tomahawks. During the first Donald Trump presidency, Washington unilaterally left the INF Treaty.

On Wednesday, the Kremlin Spokesman said Russia would respond to the base opening but did not provide details. “Of course, this requires the adoption of appropriate measures to maintain parity,” he stated.

While the Aegis system has created significant friction between Russia and NATO, Warsaw wants to further expand the missile base. Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Monday the scope of the shield needed to be expanded.

November 14, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , , | 1 Comment

Orban accuses EU of attempting ‘regime change’ in Hungary

RT | October 29, 2024

The European Union is hoping to install a ‘Jawohl government’ in Hungary as it did in Poland, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said, vowing to resist such plans.

Orban came under attack by 13 EU member states on Monday, after he visited Georgia and commended its government for a fair and democratic election. Meanwhile, the EU leadership has embraced the Georgian opposition’s claims that the vote had been marred by irregularities.

In a post on X on Tuesday, Orban issued a reminder that two powerful German officials in Brussels are hoping to replace his government with one more willing to obey their orders – just as they boasted about doing in Poland last year.

“There’s an open conspiracy against Hungary led by Manfred Weber and President [Ursula] Von der Leyen.” Orban said. “They admitted that their aim is to replace the Hungarian government with a new ‘Jawohl government’, just like the current Polish one. We will not let this happen!”

He included a minute-long video from his recent radio interview, where he explained the matter in detail.

In the video, Orban showed EU officials declaring that his government should be replaced by the opposition and boasting that they had done so in Poland – whose previous government also defied many of the orders from Brussels – last year, by installing former European Council chair Donald Tusk as prime minister.

‘Jawohl’ is the German word used to respond to commands. Orban used it because the head of the European People’s Party (EPP) faction in the bloc’s parliament, Manfred Weber, and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, are both German.

“We call what they want a ‘Jawohl’ government. So you get a phone call from Brussels or Berlin, and then you have to say ‘Jawohl’! And then it must be done,” Orban told the national broadcaster Kossuth on Friday.

“The Poles were also going their own way,” Orban added. “They also pursued their own independent Polish policy in migration, gender, and the economy. They were on the same page as the Westerners when it came to the [Russia-Ukraine conflict], but not in all other matters.” The EPP then openly announced that the conservative Polish government would leave and be replaced with another, the Hungarian prime minister explained. “This is how our friend Tusk became prime minister in Poland. Now the same scenario exists in the case of Hungary.”

“This is not even a secret conspiracy against Hungary, this is a plan they announced openly,” Orban said. “I was sitting there, they said it to my face.”

October 29, 2024 Posted by | Civil Liberties, Full Spectrum Dominance | , , , | Leave a comment

Germany and UK to sign ‘historic’ defence pact – Sunday Times

RT | October 20, 2024

The UK and Germany will sign a bilateral defense agreement this week, paving the way for both nations to step up their military drills near Russia’s borders, The Sunday Times has reported.

Under the terms of the deal, Britain and Germany will cooperate on arms procurement and development, with the agreement serving as a “first step” for a larger deal between the UK and EU next year, the British newspaper reported.

The pact “is expected to enable British and German forces to conduct joint military exercises on NATO’s eastern border with Russia, most probably in Estonia and Lithuania,” The Times noted, without offering further explanation.

Britain and Germany already take part in NATO exercises, such as this year’s ‘Steadfast Defender’ drills. Conducted near Russia’s western borders, ‘Steadfast Defender’ involved 90,000 troops from all 32 NATO states, and was perceived in Moscow as open preparation for “a potential armed clash with Russia.”

In addition to these multilateral exercises, Germany already takes part in smaller-scale bilateral exercises, such as Germany’s ‘Grand Quadriga’ drills with Lithuania earlier this year, and its ‘Baltic Tiger’ maneuvers with Estonia in 2022. The Times’ article suggests that Britain could join these exercises once the new deal is signed.

British Defense Secretary John Healey told the newspaper that the deal is modeled on the 2010 Lancaster House agreement between the UK and France. Under this agreement, Britain and France pledge to create a joint expeditionary force to take part in military drills, to collaborate on developing drones and submarine technology, and to share nuclear-weapons data with each other.

During a two-day NATO summit in Brussels this week, Healey also announced that British troops stationed in Estonia will receive new drone warfare equipment and training, and that the UK will work with Germany, France, Poland and Italy to create new long-range missiles for Ukraine.

October 20, 2024 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , , , | 1 Comment

Germany Finally Maxed Out Its Military Support For Ukraine

By Andrew Korybko | October 15, 2024

Bild cited internal Defense Ministry documents to report that Germany finally maxed out its military support for Ukraine and won’t give any more heavy equipment, which comes around six weeks after the Polish Defense Minister effectively said the same thing about his country’s support. The Federal Cabinet detailed “The arms and military equipment Germany is sending to Ukraine” last month, which they said totals €28 billion in assistance that’s either already been provided or committed for future years.

Poland and Germany have done much more for Ukraine in this regard than most countries so the fact that they’ve already maxed out their support suggests that the West as a whole might soon seriously consider freezing the conflict. After all, Russia is already far ahead of NATO in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition”, with even Sky News candidly reporting earlier this year that Russia is producing three times as many shells as NATO at one-quarter of the price.

This was followed last month by CNN sharing a glimpse of just how bad everything has become for Ukraine, which coincides with growing interest among the Western public and even some of their elite in cutting their side’s losses by exploring a political solution to the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine. “Russia’s Capture Of Pokrovsk Could Reshape The Conflict’s Dynamics” whenever it comes to pass so it naturally follows that they’d either want to preempt that or find a way to freeze the conflict afterwards.

The challenge though is that Russia won’t consider a ceasefire so long as Ukraine continues to occupy Kursk and Donbass, neither of which Kiev is willing to withdraw from as a “goodwill gesture”, thus risking the scenario that the front lines collapse due to the combination of attrition and Russia’s new tactics. In that case, Russia might try to expel Ukraine from the remainder of Zaporozhye Region east of the Dnieper, including its namesake city of an estimated 750,000 people.

There’s also the chance that Russia moves into eastern Dnipropetrovsk (“Dnipro”) Region despite having no claims to it either to coerce Ukraine into withdrawing from eastern Zaporozhye and its namesake capital and/or to push the Line of Contact (LOC) as far as possible before freezing it. This tactic could also enable Russia to open up a southern front in Kharkov Region to complement the eastern and northern ones. The worst-case scenario for Ukraine is simultaneous attacks along these three axes.

With Poland and Germany having already practically tapped out, unless they dig into the rest of their reserves that they’ve thus far preserved to meet their minimum national security requirements, this sequence of events is certainly possible. It could only be preempted by a comparatively more generous ceasefire proposal from the West that piques the Kremlin’s interest, Russian self-restraint, or Ukraine and/or the West “escalating to de-escalate”.

The first could see the West pressure Ukraine into withdrawing from eastern Zaporozhye Region, the second could be due to Russia not wanting to risk overextending its military logistics, and the third could involve a nuclear provocation, the formal deployment of NATO to Ukraine, and/or an attack on Belarus. Relevant factors include the timing of any potential Russian breakthrough and the outcome of the US elections, both of which could influence Ukraine and/or the West, perhaps even in different ways.

All that can be said for sure is that Ukraine can’t depend on more military aid after Germany just joined Poland in dropping out of the “war of attrition”. Unless they dig into their reserves or others step up (if they even have much left to give), then something game-changing might soon happen, though whether it’s positive or negative remains to be seen. Russia will either decisively win, be offered a more generous ceasefire that it’ll accept for pragmatic reasons, or its enemies will dangerously “escalate to de-escalate”.

October 17, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , , , | Leave a comment

Steadfast Noon Risking Noon Twilight: What are the Risks of NATO’s ‘Nuclear Sharing’ Drills?

By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 14.10.2024

NATO kicked off its annual Steadfast Noon nuclear exercises this week. What’s important to know about them? What military assets could they involve? What are the dangers associated with them? Sputnik explores.

NATO’s Steadfast Noon nuclear drills began on Monday and will run over the next two weeks, involving some 2,000 personnel from eight bases and over 60 aircraft from 13 bloc countries. The bulk of the drilling is expected to take place over the North Sea (about 900 km from the Russian border), as well as Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and the UK.

Central to the exercises is drilling the concept of ‘nuclear sharing’ – which allows designated NATO allies’ jets to simulate combat missions using US nukes stored on their territory.

NATO’s nuclear sharing concept goes back to the Cold War, when the US deployed thousands of surface-to-surface, surface-to-air, air-tor-air and air-to-surface weapons with nuclear payloads to allied countries, including Canada, the UK, Greece, Turkiye, Italy, and West Germany. Guarded by US Air Force or Army personnel, the arms remained (and still remain) under the control of the US military, which has the codes needed to arm them.

By 1991, the USSR removed all its nuclear weapons from Eastern Europe, and urged the US to do the same. Washington never did, and today, keeps 100-150 B61 nukes in Europe and Turkiye, including:

  • 10-15 bombs at Belgium’s Kleine Brogel Air Base – deliverable by F-16 MLU and F-35A jets.
  • 10-15 B61s at Germany’s Buchel Air Base – carried by PA-200 Tornado jets and eventually, F-35As.
  • Up to 45 B61s at Italy’s Aviano and Ghedi air bases, deliverable by F-16 C/Ds, Tornados, and F-35As.
  • About 20 bombs at the Netherlands’ Volkel Air Base, delivered by F-16 MLUs and F-35As.
  • Up to 50 B61s at Turkiye’s Incirlik Air Base, deployed by unspecified US military aircraft.

Poland has expressed readiness to host US nukes under the Nuclear Sharing program. It’s likely the bombs would be deployed at Lask Air Base, central Poland, where the US Air Force has a forward presence, and has already participated in nuclear drilling.

The B61 has been in production since the 1960s, with over 3,000 bombs of 13 different variants created. Today, the arsenal consists mostly of B61 Mod 3 and Mod 4 gravity bombs, according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. Produced since 1979, these weapons have a yield between 0.3-170 kt (Mod 3) and 0.3-45 kt (Mod 4). A Mod 7 variant also exists, with a yield between 10-340 kt.

Work is underway to replace all three with the Mod 12, which has a 0.3-50 kt yield. Production began in 2021, and 400-500 bombs are expected, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

What are the Risks Associated With Nuclear Sharing?

While B61s are tactical weapons, that doesn’t make them less dangerous than their strategic cousins, in light of the US nuclear doctrine’s allowance for nuke use in a first strike, even against “non-nuclear weapons states,” in certain circumstances. The bombs that devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 had yields of 15 and 21 kt, respectively.

The deployment of US nuclear weapons abroad frees the Pentagon’s hands for nuclear aggression involving tactical weaponry far beyond America’s home shores.

Nuclear Sharing program nukes are stored in so-called ‘Weapons Storage and Security System’ (WS3) facilities, situated in underground vaults. While info about the facilities, and even basic details on the nukes’ placement is ordinarily kept in strict secrecy, details about risks associated with hosting the weapons do occasionally leak out.

In 2023, the Federation of American Scientists published a photo of a damaged B61 at Volkel Air Base, showing the misshapen nuke on a trolley with one of its stabilizer fins missing. Neither US nor Dutch authorities informed the public of any incidents involving nukes at the base.

FAS researcher Hans M. Kristensen speculated at the time that the weapon was hit with “significant force,” possibly by a vehicle in transit, or “bent out of shape by the weapons elevator of the underground storage vault.” In any event, the incident constituted “the first publicly known case of a recent nuclear weapons accident at an airbase in Europe,” the observer noted.

FAS stressed that while the risks of an accidental detonation was extremely minute, such an eventuality would have risked widespread nuclear contamination.

Nuclear Sharing is also risk for another reason: heightened nuclear danger.

In the 1980s, when the US placed nuclear-armed Pershing and cruise missiles in Western Europe, it sparked the largest mass protests in modern European history, with three million people in Western Europe, and two million elsewhere, protesting the weapons, and for good reason: the deployment forced the USSR to put its nuclear forces on hair trigger alert, nearly sparking an all-out nuclear war in 1983.

October 14, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , | Leave a comment

Energy prices cross a critical threshold in Poland, leaving some companies fighting for their lives

By Liz Heflin | Remix News | October 10, 2024

Energy prices have crossed a critical point in Poland, leaving some companies fighting for their lives, according to wnp.pl. The site further says that the EU’s goal of lowering greenhouse gas emissions means higher obligations on those companies that depend on energy usage.

Market participants are finding it increasingly difficult to compete, with those relying on coal burdened by emission fees. “The energy-intensive industry is responsible for over 20 percent of Poland’s GDP,” WNP says, which has led to more and more demand for renewables to lower carbon footprint and remain competitive.

Henryk Kaliś, president of the board of the Chamber of Industrial Energy and Energy Recipients, says the key factor for companies is not the price of energy itself, but whether it allows for profitable production and competition with foreign (non-European) companies. Electricity prices need to be below 60 euros per megawatt-hour to compete, and prices have already surpassed this threshold.

The EU’s climate policy affects companies across the continent and has led to European industry moving to Asia. However, Poland is in a particularly vulnerable position, as gas fuel accounts for 45 percent of the country’s energy system, explains Robert Tomaszewski, head of the energy department of Polityka Insight. Compare this to Scandinavian countries where electricity is mainly supplied by hydroelectric power plants, Spain where nuclear and renewables make up 70 percent of the energy mix, or France which has turned back on their nuclear plants, driving one megawatt-hour of electricity down to €47.

In early August, Polityka Insight’s data had Poland’s average wholesale price of electricity at an average of €90 per megawatt-hour, with higher prices only seen in Ireland (€98.68) and Italy (€95-98)

Mikołaj Budzanowski, who sits on the management board of Poland’s Boryszew Group, says there is no doubt that high energy prices are a major problem for Polish industry.

October 10, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity | , , | Leave a comment

Defense Spending on NATO’s Eastern European Flank Skyrockets to $70 Billion

By Oleg Burunov – Sputnik – 09.10.2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier said that Western countries had misled Moscow by expanding NATO in Eastern Europe despite previous promises not to do so.
Military expenditure in NATO’s Eastern European member states surged to $70 billion this year, according to Bloomberg.

Poland and Estonia are among the top seven NATO members, in terms of defense spending as a percentage of GDP, this year. Poland is allocating 4.12% of its GDP to defense, while Estonia is dedicating 3.4%, both far exceeding NATO’s target of 2%.

The report comes amid heightened militarization in Eastern Europe, with NATO establishing “multinational battlegroups” in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, in response to a perceived “Russian threat.” Member states have also increased their deployment of ships, planes, and troops to NATO’s eastern flank.

Russia has repeatedly warned NATO against expanding eastwards, with Moscow arguing that it could further escalate tensions in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously accused NATO of making empty promises regarding its 1991 commitment not to expand eastwards. He stressed that there have been “five waves” of expansion since the US administration assured Russia in 1991 that NATO would not expand towards the east.

October 9, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , | Leave a comment

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