Tillerson in Moscow: False dawn in US-Russia ties?
By M K Bhadrakumar | Indian Punchline | April 13, 2017
The early reports on the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s talks in Moscow on Wednesday have a positive ring but how far it is real, time only can tell. Indeed, almost in real time as soon as Tillerson’s all-important meeting in the Kremlin with President Vladimir Putin (which lasted for over two hours) got over, President Donald Trump remarked that from the feedback he got, “things went pretty well, better than expected.”
Trump noted that Tillerson had a “very successful meeting in Russia” as the “end result” will show – “which will be in a long period of time, perhaps.” Interestingly, Trump said this in the presence of the visiting NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at the joint press conference in the White House, adding,
- It would be wonderful, as we were discussing just a little while ago (with Stoltenberg), if NATO and our country could get along with Russia. Right now, we’re not getting along with Russia at all. We may be at an all-time low in terms of a relationship with Russia. This has built for a long period of time. But we’re going to see what happens. Putin is the leader of Russia. Russia is a strong country. We’re a very, very strong country. We’re going to see how that all works out.
Make no mistake, Trump knows his job. He knows Stoltenberg’s mission was to amplify the cacophony over “Russian aggression”. So, perhaps, he deliberately went into a stream of consciousness:
- And I’ll also see about Putin over a period of time. It would be a fantastic thing if we got along with Putin and if we got along with Russia. And that could happen, and it may not happen, it may be just the opposite. I can only tell you what I would like to do. I would love to be able to get along with everybody. Right now, the world is a mess. But I think by the time we finish, I think it’s going to be a lot better place to live. And I can tell you that, speaking for myself, by the time I’m finished, it’s going to be a lot better place to live in — because right now it’s nasty.
Meanwhile, in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described his negotiations with Tillerson as “substantial and very frank.” Obviously, there were sharp differences — future of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, for instance. He said Moscow is “realistic” that much effort is needed to overcome the obstacles in the Russia-US ties but “we seek to do that… (and Putin) reaffirmed our will to do that.”
Tillerson himself described the meeting with Putin as “productive” where they discussed “approaches to improving our channels of communication and there was a “lengthy exchange of views” regarding Syrian situation and “shared perspectives on possible ways forward.” Tillerson underscored that mutual trust is very low and the two countries have differences over a broad range of issues. He said,
- The world’s two foremost nuclear powers cannot have this kind of relationship… We need to attempt to put an end to this steady degradation, which is doing nothing to restore the trust between our two countries or to make progress on the issues of the greatest importance to both of us.
Unsurprisingly, Syria topped the agenda of talks. (Ukraine took a back seat, though.) The Russian side seems to have shown willingness to revive the “de-confliction” procedure in the military operations in Syria. The two sides agreed on an investigation by the OPCW at The Hague over the chemical attack in Idlib on April 4. Equally, US-Russia consultations will resume with a view to find a solution to the Syrian conflict.
Yet, reading the transcript of the Lavrov-Tillerson press conference in Moscow yesterday, the overpowering sense is one of deja vu. We’ve been there before, haven’t we? The issues and problems in the Russian-American relationship are so deep-rooted and are not only bilateral but also regional – and some even have global character. This is the main difference between what Trump is attempting with Russia and China respectively. Paradoxically, China-US issues are rather straightforward in comparison – identifiable, quantifiable, and possible to be prioritised – if only the rivalry could be overcome in “win-win” spirit.
Unlike with US-China relations, however, the diplomatic channels between Washington and Moscow are clogged, historically as well as thanks to the deliberate policy moves by the Barack Obama administration. The good part is that both Lavrov and Tillerson acknowledged the need to improve the state of affairs. Moscow is manifestly keen to have sustained dialogue, explore possibilities for cooperation, and even seeks “joint activities” (as Lavrov put it.) But it takes two to tango.
The Trump administration is far from stable and Russophobia is pervasive within the American establishment. Any significant improvement in the relations will take time. Tillerson himself somehow gives the impression of being too decent a fellow to elbow aside roughnecks like Senator John McCain. His influence within Trump’s foreign-policy team also remains unclear. To be sure, Russophobes will now begin sniping at the nascent beginning made by Tillerson in Moscow.
The Russian diplomacy needs to slow down on the American front a bit and work its way back and re-engage Europeans. The G7 meet in Luca on Tuesday showed that Germany and Italy understand the imperative need to work with Russia to find a solution to the Syrian conflict under UN auspices. Federico Mogherini, EU foreign policy chief, is due to visit Moscow on April 24.
Lavrov says agreed with Tillerson no future US strikes on Syrian government
RT | April 13, 2017
Moscow and Washington have reached an understanding that further US strikes similar to the one carried out against Syria’s Shayrat Air Base “should not occur again,” the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said.
Lavrov emphasized that this issue was raised during his discussions with the US Secretary of State on Wednesday when Rex Tillerson was visiting Moscow.
“We have discussed this issue with the US Secretary of State in details yesterday and agreed upon the fact that a similar [strike] should not occur again,” he told journalists ahead of his meeting with his Syrian counterpart, Walid Muallem, in Moscow.
Lavrov further underlined that the US missile strike against the Shayrat Air Base played “a highly provocative role.”
He went on to say that the US confirmed its commitment to the idea that there is no other option of resolving the Syrian conflict other than political dialog, adding that this offers hope for the future of the peace process.
“It is encouraging to some extent that Rex Tillerson confirmed yesterday that [the US still holds] the opinion that there is no alternative to the political process [of the resolution of the Syrian crisis] despite all the recent negative developments,” he said.
A “right and responsible step” is how Lavrov described the Syrian government’s decision to invite experts from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to conduct an investigation of the chemical weapon incident in Idlib province.
He said the “hysteria” around the alleged Idlib chemical weapons attack should not impede efforts made in Astana and Geneva, which are aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict.
The Russian Foreign Minister warned that there are forces still trying to “bust up the ceasefire regime brokered in Astana and welcomed by the UN Security Council.”
Earlier, Lavrov said that failing to institute an international inquiry into the chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib would mean that the international community is not interested in establishing the truth about the matter.
He reiterated that Moscow considers the US claims concerning the chemical weapons being used by the Syrian government “unfounded” and “lacking evidence,” speaking at the joint news conference with Tillerson on Wednesday following talks in Moscow.
Lavrov also denounced attempts to hamper cooperation between Russia and the US as “shortsighted.” The two diplomats also announced the creation of a joint expert group tasked with analyzing bilateral relations and addressing sources of mutual concern as they revealed plans to improve ties between Moscow and Washington.
North Korea Says Washington to Blame for Escalating Tensions
Sputnik – 13.04.2017
On Thursday, a North Korean peace institute affiliated with country’s Foreign Ministry blamed the US for escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, saying that any strike from Washington would prompt a “merciless retaliatory strike.”
In the statement, a spokesman from the institute said that US deployment of nuclear assets could very well spark a nuclear conflict. A US carrier strike group led by the nuclear-powered USS Carl Vinson was recently redirected to the peninsula, as Pyongyang continues its nuclear weapons development program and its regime of threats.
This US show of force takes place only shortly after US President Donald Trump ordered a controversial strike of 59 Tomahawk missiles against Syria’s Sha’irat air base, in a move that North Korea said justified their nuclear activities.
Coming behind the Vinson group is the USS Dewey and the USS Sterett, a couple of Navy destroyers that just arrived in Hawaii and will soon be headed to the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, recent satellite images analyzed by North Korean watchdog 38 North indicate that a sixth North Korean nuclear test is on the horizon.
According to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency, the North Korean statement said, “By relentlessly bringing in a number of strategic nuclear assets to the Korean Peninsula, the US is gravely threatening the peace and safety, and driving the situation to the brink of a nuclear war.” Regarding the strike in Syria, they said “the US. is carrying out military strikes and menacing acts against a sovereign state while calling for peace through strength.”
The institute also said that it would be “silly” to entertain any “dream” of defeating them through working with other countries, in what appears to be a reference to Washington pressuring China to take a more aggressive stance against the North’s provocations.
Trump recently met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the “Southern White House,” his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. In an interview with the Financial Times not long before his meeting with Xi, Trump said, “If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will. That is all I am telling you.”
His tone changed after Xi explained Beijing’s relationship with the North, leading Trump to realize, “it’s not so easy.”
Trump also conducted a complete about-face from frequent comments he had made about Beijing being the “grand champion” of manipulating currency, saying after the meeting, “They’re not currency manipulators.”
On Thursday, amid speculation that North Korea’s next nuclear test will take place any day now, Trump remarked that Pyongyang is a “problem” that “will be taken care of.”
Despite Washington’s saber-rattling, China has suggested that diplomatic tactics could still be used to solve the North Korean issue. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters in Beijing on Thursday, “Military force cannot resolve the issue … Amid challenge there is opportunity. Amid tensions we will also find a kind of opportunity to return to talks.”
Swedish NGO’s Head Receives Threats After Claiming White Helmets’ Video Fake
Sputnik – 12.04.2017
Marcello Ferrada de Noli, one of the leaders of the Swedish Doctors for Human Rights non-governmental organization (SWEDHR), said Wednesday he and his colleagues has been receiving threats following the release of their article exposing a purportedly staged video by White Helmets group, a volunteer rescue service operating in Syria.
In the beginning of March, the SWEDHR released an article claiming that the White Helmets’ video of a child reportedly treated after a chemical attack showed fake treatment, including an intracardiac injection done with an empty syringe, which would have killed a child if the baby had not already been dead.
“The threats I receive are anonymous, somewhat non-specific. I see them on Twitter, on social networks, my colleagues also receive them. I feel a lot of discomfort because of this. But I hope that my article, despite all this, will be seen by many people,” de Noli told Rossiya 24 broadcaster.
The professor said that he was simply making public his conclusions that he could prove openly and honestly.
De Noli added that the SWEDHR would continue its work.
Lavrov: Russian, Western Experts Should Make Up Syria Chemical Attack Probe Team
Sputnik – April 13, 2017
MOSCOW – Lavrov told reporters he “sufficiently convincingly” explained to US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Wednesday the reasons why a special independent UN and OPCW-based study should investigate the purported attack.
“But, considering the enormous very confrontational resonance surrounding what happened in Syria, we offered to complement these structures with professional inspectors in this field who would be invited from both Western countries, Russia, and regional countries,” Lavrov said.
He said “it seemed to me that Tillerson quite positively reacted to this idea.” Western countries’ reluctance to send experts to the site of a reported April 4 chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib province rely on “excuses” of purported dangers, he said.
Lavrov told a briefing that US, French and UK colleagues “do not pay attention to the fact that they need to visit not only the airfield they suspect was the place where chemical weapons were loaded onto planes, but also the place where these shells were struck.”
“They said ‘we do not know who controls this area, it is not safe to send inspectors there.’ These are all excuses,” he stressed.
Syrian opposition claimed on April 4 forces loyal to President Bashar Assad had used a chemical gas on people in the northwestern province, killing nearly 80 and injuring 200. Assad argued his government has no chemical weapons after agreeing to have them destroyed in 2013. He also ruled out having used chemicals against own people.
The Russian Defense Ministry said next day that the airstrike near Khan Shaykhun was carried out by Syrian aircraft, which struck a terrorist warehouse that stored chemical weapons slated for delivery to Iraq.
Macron, Hamon Should Quit Race After Backing US Syria Strikes – French Official
Sputnik – 13.04.2017
The US attack against a Syrian military airfield launched by President Donald Trump late last Thursday triggered criticism among such French presidential hopefuls as National Front (FN) party leader Marine Le Pen, leader of left-wing political movement Unsubmissive France Jean-Luc Melenchon and the president of Gaullist Arise France party Dupont-Aignan. Socialist Hamon and independent candidate Macron, on the other hand, have expressed their support for the US president’s action.
“Having criticized Trump before and after the election, [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel and [French President Francois] Hollande have approved of this attack, which is [Trump’s] most serious and most dangerous decision on the global scale. They have shown themselves to be completely irresponsible. The same applies to certain candidates at French presidential elections, like Hamon and Macron, the two former ministers of the socialist president. Their reaction is enough to disqualify them from assuming the office they seek, I believe,” Eric Anceau said.
Following the missile strikes, which killed seven people, according to the governor of Syria’s Homs province, Hollande in a joint statement with Merkel placed the blame for the latest developments in Syria on its President Bashar Assad, albeit without providing any evidence of his involvement in the attack.
According to Anceau, Trump’s hasty reaction to the chemical weapons incident is undoubtedly the most dangerous decision he has made since assuming office.
“When one is the head of the most powerful state in the world, one does not make decisions based on emotions, as he admitted to have done after having seen on TV all these dead bodies of children,” he said, adding that the Trump administration should have consulted the US Congress first.
“In his haste, he circumvented the US Congress, which, incidentally, says a lot about the state of the US democracy in particular and our democracies in general,” the spokesman added.
He underlined that unless the strike had an ulterior motive, such as “a desire to affirm one’s power” in regions where other world powers like Russia or Iran are present, Trump’s decision to strike Syria lacks logic.
Following the strikes, Dupont-Aignan, who according to recent polls enjoys support of some 3 percent of French voters, told the French daily Le Monde that the international community had no proof Assad ordered the chemical attack, and because of this, Trump had no reason to order the strike. At the same time, he pointed out that he would back a UN-led intervention in Syria if it is proved that the Syrian government was indeed responsible for the Idlib tragedy.
The Syrian government denied having chemical weapons, as it agreed for its entire stockpile to be destroyed under a 2013 US-Russian deal. The Organization for the Protection of Chemical Weapons confirmed in January 2016 that Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal was destroyed.
Trump Appoints Fiona Hill Russia Adviser on National Security Council
By Alex GORKA | Strategic Culture Foundation | 13.04.2017
Last month, Fiona Hill, a preeminent Kremlinologist and Harvard alumna, joined the National Security Council staff as deputy assistant to the president and senior director for European and Russian Affairs. This is one of the most important positions within government shaping the US relationship with Russia. A dual US-UK citizen, Hill is also a member of the US Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the board of trustees of The Eurasia Foundation.
The new adviser holds a master’s degree in Soviet studies and a doctorate in history from Harvard University. British-born, she started at Brookings in 2000, taking a three-year break to serve on the National Intelligence Council under the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. Prior to joining Brookings, Hill was director of strategic planning at The Eurasia Foundation in Washington, D.C. From 1991 to 1999, she held a number of positions directing technical assistance and research projects at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. She pursued studies at Moscow’s State Linguistic University (former Maurice Thorez Institute of Foreign Languages).
A frequent commentator on Russian and Eurasian affairs, Fiona Hill boasts an extensive research experience on the Caucasus and Central Asia, among other issues. She is co-author of the second edition of «Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin» (2015). Lashing out at the Russian leader, Hill emphasizes it would be a mistake to underestimate Vladimir Putin.
She is also known for her book «The Siberian Curse: How Communist Planners Left Russia Out in the Cold» (2003). Hill proposed to actually evacuate Siberia and start developing its resources working in shifts. The book was praised by Jeffrey Sachs who had advised Russia to adopt «shock therapy» methods to implement economic reforms, Richard Pipes, a former member of the National Security Council known for his belligerent stance on Russia, and Zbigniew Brzezinski, former assistant to the president of the United States for national security affairs, widely believed to be behind the Obama’s hostile policy toward Moscow.
Being highly critical of Russian authorities in her books, Hill gives them their due pointing out that Russia had to go through the difficult times after the Soviet Union’s break up. She even compared Russian President Vladimir Putin with Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Charles de Gaulle who pulled their respective countries out of severe crises.
While some of Hill’s statements indicate that she is prone to taking a hard line on Moscow, others sound positive, calling for a pragmatic approach. Fiona Hill is immune to the influence of ideological stereotypes and knows how to smooth things over. Her harsh statements about incompatibility of Russia’s foreign policy agenda with long-term US interests will calm down the most suspicious persons who believe Russia to be behind everything that goes wrong». The US and Russia just have a very hard time… being on the same page», she wrote in in the Atlantic. «We’re going to have an awful lot of friction», Hill said. «And Trump isn’t exactly the most diplomatic of people. So I imagine he’ll fall out with his new friend Vladimir pretty quickly», she predicted. Last October, Fiona Hill advocated keeping anti-Russian sanctions in place and rejected the idea of a «grand bargain» with Putin in which the US would «trade concessions» in Ukraine for Russian help in the Middle East.
While President Trump has yet to lay down his Russia policy, most signs suggest no swift changes in the relationship. The president’s decision shows that a major reset is not in the cards. Hill’s appointment came as a relief to Republicans. But as a seasoned scholar, she knows Russia will not become pliant under pressure. She can make cold-blooded calculations and come up with ideas on how to reach deals on issues of common interest. Nobody expects friendship under the circumstances but it could be partnership. Hill is far-sighted enough to realize that.
Fiona Hill can do her job in a professional way without temper tantrums that take place now and then in Washington. A renowned scholar on Russia and an experienced former government official, she was chosen to implement Realpolitik. Her vast knowledge of the country and perfect Russian will come in handy for the job.
Lavrov Explains Why White House ‘Forced’ to Make Unfounded Anti-Russia Claims
Sputnik – 13.04.2017
MOSCOW – The White House is forced to make unfounded accusations against Russia because of pressure from US President Donald Trump’s opponents, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday.
Wednesday’s talks with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson helped Washington better understand Russia’s stance and formulate approaches toward fruitful cooperation, Lavrov noted.
“The negotiations with Tillerson were not useless. They, in my opinion, helped the US administration better understand our position. This, in turn, is important for them to formulate their approaches to the issues on which Russia and the US can cooperate productively,” Lavrov told reporters.
“There is not a single fact, although under pressure from Trump’s opponents, the White House is forced to periodically make certain statements with unfounded accusations against us,” Lavrov said at a briefing with his counterpart from Bangladesh, Abul Hassan Mahmood.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emerged from a closed-door summit in the Kremlin to discuss their two-hour meeting with President Vladimir Putin. While the two sides agreed that they “understand each other better,” Moscow and Washington have distinctly different perspectives on what should take place in Syria, specifically as it pertains to Syrian President Bashar Assad’s claims to power.
Russia and the United States will embark on the practical formation of generally agreed dialogue mechanisms, he said.
“These agreements have been reached in principle, we will now probably start the practical formation of these dialogue mechanisms,” Lavrov told a briefing.
Addressing two-hour talks between Putin and Tillerson, Lavrov said “the results will probably not be soon.”
“But at least in operational terms, we agreed to establish dialogue on a number of issues,” Lavrov said.
These include, he said, “an inventory of the problems created by the previous administration in bilateral relations,” mechanisms for the implementation of existing military and political agreements, as well as mechanisms to narrow differences on regional crises, including in Syria.