Aletho News


Deadly Japan Heatwave “Due To Global Warming”

By Paul Homewood | Not A Lot Of People Know That | May 30, 2019

Japan’s heatwave in July 2018 could not have happened without climate change.

That is the unequivocal conclusion of a report released last week, as the country battles yet another record-breaking heatwave.

The July 2018 heatwave, which killed 1,032 people, saw temperatures reach 41.1C, the highest temperature ever recorded in the country. Torrential rains also triggered landslides and the worst flooding in decades.

Penned by the Meteorological Society of Japan, the study is the first to establish that some aspects of the international heatwave could not have occurred in the absence of global warming. Scientists reached this conclusion by employing a technique known as event attribution (EA).

The relatively new method, lead author Yukkiko Imada told Climate Home News, sought to pin down the causality of climate change in the heatwave by simulating 18 climate scenarios with and without the current 1C global warming above pre-industrial levels.

They found a one in five chance of the heatwave occurring in the current climate, but almost no chance of in a climate unchanged by human activity.

This claim is utterly absurd and dishonest.

As Imada’s study makes abundantly clear, the cause of the heatwave was the coming of two powerful high pressure systems, known as a double-high.

Moreover, two seasonal high-pressure systems, namely the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) in the lower troposphere and Tibetan high in the upper troposphere often cause warm climate in Japan (Imada et al. 2014). This two-tiered high-pressure system (double-High) was also visible in July 2018.

The paper goes on to say:

However, experts do not have any  answers on whether the double-High in 2018 was extreme compared to other such  historical events. It is even more difficult to determine the extent to which  human-induced global warming contributed to this event….

Thus, the double-High condition appears to be natural variability  and not affected by the human-induced climate change at this stage.

 In other words, the heatwave would have occurred, regardless of global warming.

As is usually the case with these sort of attribution studies, what this one actually says is that this event was slightly hotter than would have been the case prior to 20thC warming.

It is funny that we never seem to hear about studies that explain how cold winters would have been even colder without AGW!

It is reckoned that 1032 died in the Japan heatwave, but it is certain that many more would have died in pre-industrial versions of that weather event, before the days of air conditioning.

May 31, 2019 - Posted by | Deception, Science and Pseudo-Science

1 Comment »

  1. Doppler microwave energy and persisting contrails seem the elephants in the room–unmentionable in the pursuit of climate change understanding.

    Comment by rediscover911com | May 31, 2019 | Reply

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