NATO may collapse by 2025 – academic
RT | September 3, 2023
The return of Donald Trump to the White House could spell the end for US military aid to Ukraine, leaving a divided Europe to foot Kiev’s bills and ultimately ending the NATO pact, academic Phillips Payson O’Brien claimed in The Atlantic on Saturday.
Opposition to arming Ukraine is now the position of Trump’s supporter base, who O’Brien estimated account for three quarters of the Republican Party’s electorate. Trump has repeatedly vowed to use military aid as leverage to force Ukraine into peace talks with Russia “within 24 hours” of his inauguration, while his two nearest competitors for the GOP’s nomination – Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy – have also discussed restricting support for Kiev.
Of the three potential candidates, Ramaswamy has gone the furthest, suggesting that the US recognize Russia’s territorial claims in Ukraine in exchange for Moscow distancing itself from Beijing.
“If Trump or one of his imitators wins the presidency in November 2024, Europe could find itself faced with a new American administration that will halt all support for Ukraine,” O’Brien warned.
In this scenario, he continued, European nations would be unable to make up for the loss of US military aid, resulting in a military defeat for Ukraine. With the US out of the picture, Europe would be divided on the issue too, he added, with the Eastern and Baltic nations eager but unable to keep the arms flowing to Kiev, and Western nations like France and Germany more likely to seek peace with Russia.
“The result could be a legacy of bitterness and distrust at best, and a permanent fracturing of European cooperation at worst,” he stated.
A fervent supporter of Ukraine, O’Brien argued that European countries need to increase military production immediately to prepare for this possibility. However, with the Eurozone entering recession in the first three months of 2023 and industrial production down in Germany, European states are unlikely to be able to sustain the Ukrainian military on their own.
O’Brien’s predictions are based on the assumption that Ukraine will still be able to fight by 2025. According to Russian figures, Kiev lost 43,000 men in the first two months of its ongoing counteroffensive, without managing to penetrate the multiple layers of trenches and fortifications laid by Russia along the entire Kherson-Donetsk front line.
Before the operation began in early June, multiple Western media reports suggested that continued US and NATO military aid to Kiev depended on the success of the offensive. Now, almost three months in, the counteroffensive is widely regarded as a failure.
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A New Era Of Mass Armies Approaches
BY IAN WELSH | SEPTEMBER 29, 2023
The army, or a part of it at the war college, has perked up and noticed some of the lessons of the Ukraine war, and that it’s a war that the US military could not fight. They’ve missed a lot of things, or felt they couldn’t/shouldn’t write about them, but they’ve figured some stuff out and written about them in a new report, “A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force” by Lieutenant Colonel Katie Crombe, and Professor John A. Nagle.
The entire thing is worth reading, but I’m going to pull out three of the main points. The first is that a volunteer US military can’t fight a real war.
The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace casualties.11 Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries. With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same number of casualties in two weeks. (emphasis mine)
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Noted.
Now tell me: Why in hell would Russia “distance itself from China”? I have a five-dollar bill….
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If the world is really lucky, this will happen. No one needs the North Atlantic Terrorist Organization!
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Yes…thank you. I am deeply, personally revulsed to contemplate that the ultimate megalomaniac/lowlife/truly subhuman-being DJTrump is likely to be involved in and indeed driving this possibility … but so be it/amen … it’s more and more the American way … beyond my 80 yo control … and who the hell am I but jaded, cynical, burned out, enduring “a life (sic) of quiet desperation”?
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I think you should be more worried about the criminal Biden administration than former President Trump.
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Yes, sir: each, equally in most respects. (Including my 60-years-on heartache Palestine….)
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I agree, the interlopers on Palestinian land murder with impunity, daily. It is a disgrace to the Western World that this atrocity has been allowed to continue!
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Ukraine is a failed state!! Unable to fund its government, pay its employees, or provide for its citizens, Ukraine has lapsed into a disfunctional satrapy of the United States. What must be done now to avert more deaths and worsening conditions in Ukraine is to end the war as quickly as possible and begin reconstruction. Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk should remain Russian. Other Oblasts that have been won by Russia and incorporated into the Russian Federation should be given semi-autonomy until the residents of those regions are able to hold referendums on staying in the Federation or returning to Ukraine. NATO puppet Zelensky should be told to hold elections soon after the cessation of war, or resign. Zelensky is directly responsible for all those killed in the war since March 2022 after he reneged on his agreement with Russia to wind down and end the war. BoJo should face a post war tribunal for his involvement in that decision.
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