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Where are yesterday’s experts on the Crimea conquest?

BY PAWEŁ LISICKI | DORZECZY.PL | NOVEMBER 14, 2023

As reports of a stalemate in Ukraine emerge, Paweł Lisicki, the editor of the conservative weekly Do Rzeczy, asks where all the experts are who had predicted a swift Ukrainian victory and a Russian retreat.

I am reminding everyone, without naming names since I already have many adversaries, of the propaganda that saturated Poland and all media after February 2022. The narrative then seemed convinced that Ukraine would imminently crush a hapless and incompetently managed Russia. The Russians were portrayed as incapable of combat, with widespread desertion, malfunctioning rockets, and crumbling tanks, and their finest weapons humorously were said to originate from modified refrigerators or lawnmowers.

A sense of demoralization was said to pervade their army, and Putin was depicted as perpetually dying. Moreover, a fear of an impending military coup was rumored to haunt him. American and British generals, whose wisdom was parroted by Polish experts, forecasted the swift capture of Crimea, the total encirclement of Russian forces, and a great victory. Poland was promised greatness and a leading role in Eastern affairs.

We were to be America’s hub, a key ally, instantly replacing Germany. Analysts didn’t stop there. The boldest spoke of an emerging grand Polish-Ukrainian alliance, even hinting at a new joint statehood, a confederation that would reverse the historical curse of the 18th century and elevate Poland to superpower status.

Ukraine was to be forgiven for past grievances, having shed enough blood defending us from eastern hordes. Instead, Kyiv was seen as the West’s defender, a bastion of democracy, and its leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, was embraced by Polish leaders, including President Andrzej Duda, as a sage and flawless hero.

Now, it turns out these stories were worth less than nothing.

Despite hundreds of billions of dollars and euros and massive NATO military support, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top military commander, admitted as much recently. He stated in The Economist magazine that the war with Russia is at a stalemate and breaking it would require a significant technological breakthrough, which is unlikely. Zaluzhny also acknowledged that speculations about retaking Crimea, annexed in 2014, were a mistake.

These sober comments incited Zelensky’s anger, who retorted that without victory, the country wouldn’t exist, while his circle suggested that Zaluzhny’s statements serve only Russia. In mysterious circumstances, the general’s personal aide was recently found dead. Soon after, Zelensky dismissed another general, Viktor Khorenko, from the command of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces.

All this points to a growing internal conflict, including comments from Zelensky’s former advisor, Oleksiy Arestovych, who speaks openly of the current president as a dictator and criticizes the ongoing war. President Zelensky has announced that due to the war with Russia, the 2024 presidential elections in Ukraine will not take place. It is undeniable that he is undertaking actions that can be seen as violations of fundamental rights and freedoms, such as harassment and now a ban on the activity of the church that recognizes the canonical authority of Moscow.

What’s happening is precisely what could have been assumed by anyone with reason and not swayed by the fanciful propaganda eagerly served by Western lobbyists.

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has decisively turned U.S. attention to that region. It’s also clear that Americans are tired of supporting Kyiv, evidenced by the rising support for Donald Trump, the main opponent of Joe Biden’s policies. The Americans have grown weary of Ukraine. The costs of aid are mounting, and the anticipated collapse of Russia has not occurred.

If a coup is to happen, it is likely to be in Kyiv rather than Moscow.

Worse, after an initial period of weakness and chaos, Russia has regained the initiative and is now more dangerous than at the conflict’s start. Back in March and April 2022, a beneficial truce for Ukraine was possible. However, as former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett indicated, talks were halted by the West. Americans and Britons encouraged Ukraine to continue the war, promising the crushing of Russia. Polish experts, predictably, echoed this. Today, it’s apparent what a grave mistake this was. The immense human costs borne by Ukraine may yield no results, and it now risks not only losing territory but also plunging into chaos.

November 14, 2023 Posted by | Corruption, Militarism, Russophobia | , | Leave a comment

Missing soldier’s wife accuses Ukrainian army of corruption: ‘If you want to live, pay them’

By Ahmed Adel | November 14, 2023

In a video posted on social media, Tatiana Ivchuk, the wife of a missing Ukrainian soldier, accused the leadership of her country’s military of corruption. She revealed in a video first posted on TikTok that there is a list of prices that soldiers are obliged to pay to commanders.

“If you want to live, pay them,” Tatyana said in the video, adding that Ukrainian soldiers are even forced to pay for weapons and ammunition during combat.

According to Ivchuk, a rifle magazine would cost between 750 and 1,000 hryvnias (1000 hryvnia = USD$27). Bribes are accepted for soldiers not to carry out a combat mission, with amounts ranging from 30,000 to 70,000 hryvnias; for a ten-day leave from the Armed Forces costs 20,000 hryvnias; and even evacuation from the battlefield costs 10,000 hryvnias.

Corruption among the Ukrainian Armed Forces even occurs in humanitarian aid. Ivchuk revealed that items delivered by volunteers barely reach soldiers on the front line. She said all evidence of the crimes was handed over to the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Public Prosecutor’s Office.

Reports like Ivchuk’s are becoming more and more frequent. On other occasions, Ukraine’s military personnel have revealed problems with extortion in the army, complaints against the command, and difficulties in planning operations. It is recalled that in Lviv, a city with more than 800,000 inhabitants close to the Ukraine-Poland border, the deputy commander of a military unit was denounced for encouraging soldiers to build their own houses and conducting clandestine trade.

Since June 4, the beginning of the so-called counteroffensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have suffered 90,000 soldiers, including deaths and injuries, according to data from the Russian Ministry of Defence. The emptying of the ranks is so great that earlier this month, after Ukrainian authorities ordered an attack on Gorlovka, Army officers responded only: “With what?” referring to the lack of troops and weapons.

A Time magazine publication also reports that some Ukrainian military personnel are in open insubordination, refusing to go on the offensive even under direct orders from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office. The strength of Russian defence and the worsening of the conflict in Israel, which took attention away from Ukraine, increased the feeling of hopelessness not only among Ukrainian soldiers but also among the top brass, which, according to the article, is even more corrupt.

“People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow,” said Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff.

Despite the West’s propagandistic claims about Ukraine’s imminent victory, this did not happen, and the country is plunging deeper into chaos. The reality is that despite hundreds of billions of dollars and euros received from the West, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed, just as the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhny, admitted on November 1 before adding that speculation about the possibility of taking Crimea was unfounded.

Notably, a split is emerging in the Kiev regime between Zelensky and his generals. In addition to the internal problems that Ukraine is facing, the world’s attention has focused on the Middle East.

Also, Americans are tired of supporting Zelensky, evidenced by the rise in popularity of Donald Trump – the main political opponent of current US President Joe Biden. It is virtually certain that when Trump enters the presidential election debates, wasted billions of dollars of US taxpayer money to Ukraine will become a main point to attack Biden and the Democratic Party.

Since February 2022, the US has allocated $113.4 billion in emergency funding to support Ukraine in wartime, most of this in funding and equipment through military, economic, and humanitarian aid. How many billions of dollars in US taxpayer’s money have gone missing in Ukraine because of corruption is as good as anyone’s guess, but this is a major issue in Washington and why there is great hesitation in assigning more money to the Eastern European country.

Every person at every level in Ukraine is engaged in corruption, whether it be the upper echelons of the regime or lowly military personnel who will accept bribes so that Ukrainians can avoid active duty or be assigned to easier tasks.

Although this has been reported widely over the last few months, what makes Tatiana Ivchuk’s testimony perhaps the most shocking is that soldiers need to pay for their own ammunition and weapons. Corruption is so deep-rooted in Ukraine that it renders efforts to fight Russia useless because profiteering rather than fighting is now the priority of the Ukrainian military.

Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

November 14, 2023 Posted by | Corruption | | Leave a comment

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