US Not Ready for War of Attrition in the Red Sea – Analyst
By Oleg Burunov – Sputnik – 13.01.2024
Further bombing of Houthi positions in Yemen may prove ineffective, Russian military analyst Andrei Martyanov told Sputnik.
US and British forces carried out a spate of air strikes on over 60 targets at 16 Houthi militant locations in northern Yemen on Thursday and Friday nights, reportedly retaliation for the militants’ attacks against ships in the Red Sea since November.
The Ansar Allah movement has already pledged that the two Western powers will pay a “high price” for the strikes, which came as part of the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea.
With the operation showing no sign of progress, it seems that the US is not ready for a war of attrition in the Red Sea and is headed for an embarrassing debacle in the area, Russian military analyst Andrei Martyanov told Sputnik.
He said that US destroyers deployed to the Red Sea “might have a very good radar, but if you send towards them a bunch of drones, eventually they’re going to run out of missiles.”
“The most insulting in this case, so to speak, the rubbing salt in the wound, will be the fact the Houthis just probably will be sending $5,000-6,000 drones that will prod you to expend your $1.5-2 million air defense missile, if not more, in terms of costs,” Martyanov said.
According to him, if America “has some destroyer, let alone aircraft carrier, hit by some kind of the explosive device or drone, it will have not just technical problems, it will be a political issue in the United States.”
“One of the most shocking revelations for people might be the fact that while the US definitely has ‘sophisticated’ weapons, they are not necessarily that effective. For example, it is a well known fact that their air defenses will not be effective against modern anti-ship cruise missiles, especially the salvo, which is a [large] number of missiles arranged in a specific way when they are launched,” the analyst pointed out.
When asked about further escalation of the situation in the Red Sea, Martyanov suggested that Americans may “move their couple of carrier battle groups away from the shore and start, basically, running those bombing runs and start bombing and shooting at whatever they will find in northern Yemen.”
“As a result, obviously, it will create another outcry. This might work not so well, but at least they will say, ‘you see, we didn’t lose anybody.’ They will declare the victory and leave,” the analyst argued.
Finally, he remained skeptical about the US putting boots on the ground in northern Yemen, arguing that such a move would be “very problematic.”
“President Joe Biden doesn’t need coffins coming into the United States, covered in the Stars and Stripes. That could be pretty damaging to the already basically shaky US administration,” the analyst concluded.
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From the Archives
A New Era Of Mass Armies Approaches
BY IAN WELSH | SEPTEMBER 29, 2023
The army, or a part of it at the war college, has perked up and noticed some of the lessons of the Ukraine war, and that it’s a war that the US military could not fight. They’ve missed a lot of things, or felt they couldn’t/shouldn’t write about them, but they’ve figured some stuff out and written about them in a new report, “A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force” by Lieutenant Colonel Katie Crombe, and Professor John A. Nagle.
The entire thing is worth reading, but I’m going to pull out three of the main points. The first is that a volunteer US military can’t fight a real war.
The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace casualties.11 Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries. With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same number of casualties in two weeks. (emphasis mine)
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Given that Geriatric Joe can hardly be regarded as a president who knows what is going on around him, let alone in charge of national policy, it would be extremely interesting to know who is calling the shots, and whether that person has anything between his/her ears?
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