Ecuadorian voters say ‘No’ to return of US bases
RT | November 17, 2025
Voters in Ecuador have rejected a proposal to bring US military bases back into the country, according to the results of Sunday’s national referendum.
With around 95% of ballots counted, the official tally shows that 60.58% voted ‘No’ on President Daniel Noboa’s initiative to allow foreign troops to operate in Ecuador as part of efforts to fight organized crime and drug trafficking.
Noboa said he accepts the results. “We consulted with the Ecuadorians, and they have spoken. We fulfilled our promise to ask them directly. We respect the will of the Ecuadorian people,” he wrote on X.
US troops were stationed at an air base in the port city of Manta until 2009, when then-President Rafael Correa refused to renew the lease and banned foreign bases in Ecuador.
Noboa offered US President Donald Trump the opportunity to station troops in the country, at different times pitching Manta, the city of Salinas, and one of the islands of the Galapagos Archipelago as possible locations.
Who Is Thomas Crooks?
Tucker Carlson | November 14, 2025
The FBI told us Thomas Crooks tried to kill Donald Trump last summer but somehow had no online footprint. The FBI lied, and we can prove it because we have his posts. The question is why?
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries driving price hikes in the US – Bloomberg
RT | November 16, 2025
Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities are contributing to rising oil prices in the US, Europe, and Asia, Bloomberg reported on Saturday.
The attacks, combined with outages at key plants in Asia and Africa, have removed millions of barrels of diesel and gasoline from the global market, the outlet said. US sanctions on Russian energy giants Lukoil and Rosneft in October, along with restrictions imposed by the EU, have also helped drive prices higher.
Refining margins in the US, Europe, and Asia are now at their highest levels for this time of year since at least 2018, Bloomberg said, citing its own calculations. Additional pressure has come from shutdowns and outages at refineries in Kuwait and Nigeria.
Ukraine has targeted oil depots, processing plants, and metering stations with drones and missiles, calling them legitimate facilities that support Russia’s “war machine.” Russia, in turn, has struck elements of Ukraine’s power grid, saying the infrastructure supports the Ukrainian military.
In August, Hungary imposed sanctions on Ukraine’s top drone commander, Robert Brovdi, after repeated strikes disrupted the flow of crude through the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline.
Red ribbons in London: A silent uprising bringing Palestinian hostages back into view
By Adnan Hmidan | MEMO | November 16, 2025
Walking through Westminster, in the quiet rush of central London, flashes of red caught my attention — ribbons tied to lampposts, railings, and street fixtures. They were not adverts or campaign posters, but dense, symbolic gestures: spontaneous in form, unmistakable in meaning. They returned to public sight faces that have long been hidden behind prison walls — Palestinian hostages abducted by the occupation from homes and hospitals, held without trial under a system that resembles nothing but the law of the jungle.
These ribbons seemed like individual efforts, small and uncoordinated, yet unified in what they were trying to say: that the Palestinian hostage file remains locked in darkness, despite being one of the most devastating human crises. Thousands have been torn from their lives with no charges, no legal process, no daylight.
Of the nearly 9,100 Palestinians currently detained, it is estimated that almost a third are effectively treated as hostages; abducted and denied even the bare minimum of legal rights or guarantees.
A language that must reclaim its meaning
For years, the word “prisoner” has been used broadly. But what the occupation practises is not detention — it is abduction. People are taken from their beds or hospital rooms and disappear for indefinite periods, without charges, court hearings, or the most basic procedural rights.
The figures alone reveal the scale of the crisis:
3,544 held under administrative detention without trial
400 children
53 women
16 doctors
117 Palestinian hostages killed in the past two years alone during the genocide in Gaza
These individuals cannot honestly be called “prisoners.” They are hostages in every legal and moral sense — seized outside any legitimate framework by a state whose own foundations rest on dispossession and violation.
Red… a colour that bears witness, not beauty
The choice of red is self-explanatory. It is the colour of spilled blood, of injustice endured, of wounds that never fully heal.
These ribbons may hang quietly across London, but the question they raise is anything but quiet:
How can thousands of people be abducted in this way, while the world remains unable — or unwilling — to see them?
No one is asked to lead a campaign or become an activist. What is needed is recognition, a wider awakening to a file packed with human lives, daily suffering, families searching, and children growing up in absence.
Stories hanging from lampposts… so memory does not fade
Seeing the ribbons brought back the painful stories that fill this file:
The child pulled from his bed because soldiers deemed him a “threat,”
The woman taken from her home in front of her children,
The doctor who vanished from an operating room and never returned,
Those subjected to torture and enforced disappearance,
And the testimonies of rape and sexual abuse recently documented by international organisations.
These stories need no embellishment; their truth is weight enough. They also echo Steve Biko’s famous line:
“The most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed.”
These red ribbons feel like a modest attempt to unsettle that weapon.
Catherine Connolly’s victory: Europe’s moral rebellion against the Israeli occupation
When execution becomes a celebration
It is difficult to grasp that the occupation’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, celebrated inside the Knesset after passing a law permitting the execution of Palestinian detainees.
More troubling still is how easily such a moment can pass as a routine political step — as though it were merely another debate rather than a descent into deeper, institutionalised brutality.
When a state legalises killing those it has abducted without trial, imprisonment ceases to resemble detention. It becomes just one point on a chain that runs from abduction to torture to death.
The rising number of Palestinians dying inside Israeli prisons is not an exaggeration — it is an expanding reality.
Preserving memory before preserving the body
Red ribbons do not claim to liberate anyone, nor do they replace political or legal work. But they accomplish something essential: they return faces to public view and stop stories from being buried in darkness.
The Palestinian hostage file needs wider adoption and genuine engagement. It is a file overflowing with pain and heavy with violations, yet among the least addressed internationally.
Ribbons cannot break iron bars.
But they can remind the world that behind every statistic is a human being waiting to be rescued from disappearance.
Justice begins when we choose to see.
And sometimes, the first step toward that justice is nothing more than a small red thread tied to a lamppost in a distant city.
Hamas, other factions urge Algeria to reject US Gaza forces resolution
Al Mayadeen | November 16, 2025
The Palestinian people are closely following developments over a US draft resolution on international forces in Gaza, with Palestinian leaders expressing hope that Algeria will take a firm stance against the measure, which they say undermines Palestinian sacrifices and aspirations.
A senior Hamas official told Al Mayadeen on Sunday that the Palestinian people are hoping for an “honorable stance” from Algeria in rejecting the US draft resolution regarding international forces.
The official added that Hamas has confidence that Algeria will oppose the resolution, which they said inflicts injustice on the sacrifices and aspirations of the Palestinian people, describing the anticipated Algerian position as a source of hope for Palestinians in preventing any new international trusteeship over Gaza.
Palestinian factions call on Algeria to stand for Gaza at UNSC
Meanwhile, Palestinian Resistance factions in Gaza issued a statement expressing deep concern over the ongoing efforts at the United Nations to pass a US draft resolution proposing the deployment of international forces in the Strip. The factions described the resolution as a disguised attempt to impose a new form of occupation on Gaza and to legitimize foreign trusteeship of the Palestinian cause.
In the statement, the factions called on the Algerian government and people to maintain their long-standing principled support for Palestine and to reject any initiatives that would undermine Gaza’s identity or the right of Palestinians to self-determination. They described Algeria’s historical position on Palestine as a source of genuine hope for the Palestinian people and a reflection of the Arab world’s independent popular stance.
The factions stressed that any foreign intervention in Gaza, regardless of its title or justification, constitutes a “violation of Palestinian sovereignty and perpetuates the suffering of the local population.” They emphasized that lasting security and stability can only be achieved by ending the occupation, lifting the blockade, and respecting the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people.
Expressing confidence in Algeria’s supportive position, the statement urged all Arab and Muslim countries, as well as free peoples around the world, to stand against the US resolution and reject any form of foreign tutelage or intervention, defending Gaza’s right to freedom, dignity, and independence.
Trump considers skipping disarmament phase of Gaza plan amid deadlock: Report
The Cradle | November 16, 2025
The US is looking to “forgo” the stage of the Gaza ceasefire initiative, which involves deploying an international security force to the strip to disarm Hamas and other Palestinian resistance factions, Israeli media reported over the weekend.
The October ceasefire agreement remains in its first stage as talks continue to stall over the issue of Hamas’s disarmament and post-war administration of Gaza.
This potential change in US direction is causing ongoing negotiations to “deadlock,” an Israeli security source told Hebrew news outlet Channel 13.
The source said Washington is struggling to get commitments from countries to directly participate in disarming the factions.
As a result, it has started to look for “interim solutions, which are currently unacceptable to Israel.”
“This interim solution is the worst there is,” the source added, referring to the plan to forgo disarmament and skip ahead to reconstruction.
“Hamas has been strengthening in recent weeks since the end of the war. There can be no rehabilitation before demilitarization. It is contrary to Trump’s plan. Gaza must be demilitarized,” the Israeli source went on to say.
Channel 13 notes that there has been a collapse in ceasefire talks over Washington’s inability to form the international force – referred to in Donald Trump’s ‘peace plan’ as the International Stabilization Force (ISF).
The US recently submitted a draft for the establishment of the force, and is seeking UN backing to implement the plan along with the rest of Trump’s 20-point ceasefire initiative.
The draft includes a broad mandate for Washington to govern Gaza for at least two years. It also mentions that the ISF will be established in coordination with the Gaza ‘Board of Peace,’ which Trump will head.
Russia has proposed its own draft, which entirely removes the ‘Board of Peace’ clause and calls on the UN to identify “options” for the ISF.
The US draft is expected to be put to a vote at the UN on Monday. On 14 November, the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Jordan, and Turkiye issued a joint statement backing the US draft. That day, Indonesia said it had readied 20,000 troops for the plan.
Arab and Islamic states have “leaned toward supporting the US draft because Washington is the only party capable of enforcing its resolution on the ground and pressuring Israel to implement it,” a source told Asharq al-Awsat, adding that there is “firm American intent to deploy forces soon, even if that requires sending a multinational force should Moscow use its veto.”
However, multiple reports in western and Hebrew media over the past several days have revealed an Arab unwillingness to directly force Hamas’s disarmament through a confrontation.
“Most countries that have expressed interest in participating in the ISF have said they would not be willing to enforce the disarmament … and would only act as a peacekeeping force,” Times of Israel wrote.
Israel’s Broadcasting Corporation (KAN) reported on Saturday that Tel Aviv is expecting the resolution to pass, and is preparing for the entry of thousands of foreign soldiers into Gaza.
Enemy plot against Lebanon similar to conspiracy imposed on Syria, says lawmaker
Press TV – November 16, 2025
A senior Lebanese lawmaker says his country does not need a new agreement given the fragile ceasefire that Israel repeatedly violates, warning that the occupying entity is devising a plot against Lebanon similar to the conspiracy imposed on neighboring Syria.
“Some in Lebanon insist on disarmament of Hezbollah and assert that the enemy will no longer have an excuse against Lebanon in case the resistance movement lays down arms,” Hussein Hajj Hassan, a member of Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc – the political wing of Hezbollah in the Lebanese parliament – said on Saturday evening.
“They believe the sole reason behind Israel’s aggression against Lebanon lies in Hezbollah’s weapons,” he said, adding that the plot the Tel Aviv regime is drawing up for Lebanon is akin to the conspiracy imposed on Syria.
“It involves creation of a buffer zone, continuation and expansion of the Zionist occupation, and destruction of the elements of power, not only the Hezbollah resistance movement, but also the government.”
Hajj Hassan noted that the talk of a new agreement with Israel is meaningless whilst the regime does not stand committed to the ceasefire deal concluded in November last year.
“The ceasefire agreement has been brokered by the United States and France, carries UN guarantees, and stipulates the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory, cessation of aggression, release of Lebanese prisoners, and reconstruction of the country. The need for a new deal is pointless, especially as the previous agreement has not been implemented at all by Zionist occupiers,” the Lebanese legislator said.
“Is there a resistance group and weapons in Syria? So why does the Zionist regime keep invading the country, occupying more land there, and affirming that it will not pull out?” Hajj Hassan questioned.
The Lebanese lawmaker highlighted that Syria’s ruling Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) regime is allied to Washington, yet the Zionist regime is pressing ahead with its acts of aggression and occupation of Syrian territories.
“The more concessions you grant the Zionist enemy, the weaker you become. Hezbollah and national unity are the only guarantors of deterrence and defense,” he emphasized.
Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement that took effect on November 27, 2024. Under the deal, Tel Aviv was required to withdraw fully from the Lebanese territory—but has kept forces stationed at five sites, in clear violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and the terms of last November’s agreement.
Since the implementation of the ceasefire, Israel has violated the agreement multiple times through repeated assaults on the Lebanese territory.
Lebanese authorities have warned that the Israeli regime’s violations of the ceasefire threaten national stability.
Western aid feeding Ukrainian corruption – Italian deputy PM
RT | November 15, 2025
Western assistance to Kiev risks ending up in the pockets of corrupt Ukrainian officials, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has warned, citing a major scandal that recently shook Ukraine’s government. He also argued against further military aid, warning that the EU was on “the path of death.”
Salvini spoke as the Italian government approved its 12th package of military support for Ukraine and promised electrical generators for the coming winter. The decision coincided with a major scandal in Kiev over an alleged $100 million energy graft scheme involving Timur Mindich, a close associate and former business partner of Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky.
Moscow responded to the news by calling it evidence of a “bloody hydra” of Ukrainian corruption reaching beyond the country’s borders and draining Western taxpayers’ money. Politico also reported on Saturday that the EU was also concerned over “endemic corruption” in Ukraine.
“It seems to me that corruption scandals are emerging, involving the Ukrainian government, so I would not want the money of Italian workers and pensioners to be used to fuel further corruption,” Salvini told reporters in Naples on Friday.
He added that ending the conflict depends on “silencing the weapons” and bringing both Moscow and Kiev to the negotiating table. Salvini also argued that it should be in Kiev’s interest to halt the fighting as soon as possible, pointing to continued Russian gains on the battlefield.
“To think that sending weapons to Ukraine means Ukraine can regain the lost ground is naïve, to say the least,” he said, adding that he did not believe “prolonging this path of death will help anyone.”
Salvini has previously criticized what he sees as escalatory rhetoric from other EU leaders. In August, he responded to French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that EU nations could send troops to Ukraine by saying Macron should go himself. “If Macron wants, he can go – but I think he’ll go alone, because not even one Frenchman would follow him,” Salvini said at the time, prompting a brief diplomatic spat between Rome and Paris.
Russia, US Actively Discussing Ukrainian Peace Process – Kremlin Aide
Sputnik – 16.11.2025
MOSCOW – Russia and the United States are actively discussing the Ukrainian peace process based on the understandings reached in Anchorage by Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said on Sunday.
“We are holding active talks on Ukrainian settlement based on the understandings reached in Anchorage,” Ushakov said.
Ushakov added that many comments and signals on Ukraine were coming out of Washington, but he stressed that Russia would continue to rely on those understandings.
“[There are] many signals, some we like, some we do not, but the basis for everything is Anchorage,” Ushakov stated, adding that these understandings are a good path for peaceful settlement in Ukraine.
He added that decisions reached in Anchorage had been conveyed to Ukraine, However, Kiev “did not like it.” Anchorage agreements are opposed by those who want hostilities in Ukraine to continue “to the last Ukrainian,” Ushakov said.
When asked whether the US had moved away from the Anchorage understandings, Ushakov said that the US did not officially say that they were no longer valid. He also said that the next Putin–Trump summit had been postponed, however contacts on this matter were ongoing.
“We agreed on a meeting in Budapest, then the meeting was postponed for some time. Contacts on this matter are ongoing,” Ushakov said.
If both presidents agree on a meeting, many technical and political disagreements would be pushed to the back burner, he added.
“It seems to me that if a principled agreement is reached by Washington and Moscow on a leaders’ meeting in one place or another, then many technical and political difficulties will fade into the background,” he said.
Alternative for Germany Party Mulls Energy Cooperation With BRICS Countries – Lawmaker
Sputnik – 16.11.2025
SIRIUS, Russia – The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is considering the possibility of cooperating with BRICS countries in the energy sector, lawmaker Steffen Kotre told Sputnik on Saturday.
“One of the reasons I am here is to meet with representatives of the BRICS nations. We discussed some positions on this issue [energy cooperation]. This is a positive process. Whether this will have any results is another matter. The main goal now is simply to get to know each other,” Kotre said on the sidelines of the BRICS-Europe symposium, which is underway in Russia’s Sirius Federal Territory.
The pressure on the AfD over its members’ trip to Russia is growing, but the party does not intend to abandon what it considers “a realistic political line,” the lawmaker noted.
“Quite the contrary, this pressure certainly strengthens our understanding that we will certainly achieve normal relations. And by this I mean a peaceful exchange of views with Russia,” he said.
Communication channels should be open in both directions, including to show Moscow that “there are sensible people in Germany and not only warmongers,” Kotre added.
Oceania: The Erosion of Sovereignty as a Political Trend
The Pitfalls of Australia’s New Defense Pact with Papua New Guinea
By Ksenia Muratshina – New Eastern Outlook – November 16, 2025
Once Upon a Time in Oceania
Last October, a significant event took place in the Oceania region—significant, that is, in a negative sense. It was the signing of a Mutual Defense Treaty between Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The very necessity for “defense” is an open question—just who in the modern world would need to attack PNG? Or, more precisely, who would have wanted to before it tied itself to an American ally that is constantly getting bogged down in one conflict after another, following Washington’s lead? Nevertheless, this treaty became the first military alliance in the history of the independent New Guinean state (since 1975).
As for Australia, its authorities claim they haven’t signed a treaty of this level and substantive depth in 70 years, not since the well-known ANZUS pact. While Australia is in a military alliance not only with the US and New Zealand but also with the UK, the AUKUS agreements are not as detailed. The document with PNG is also remarkable because it demonstrates Canberra reaching a new level of interference in the internal affairs of neighboring countries. It elevates the status of interaction between the parties to an allied level and stipulates a series of corresponding measures. The main one is mutual assistance in the event of an external threat. Furthermore, it outlines the inadmissibility of actions that could hinder the fulfillment of allied agreements—a clause that sounds extremely broad and allows for any interpretation. The parties commit to developing a full spectrum of military-technical cooperation: personnel exchanges, military education and personnel training, “synchronization of military doctrines,” bilateral and multilateral exercises, “actions to support security interests at sea, on land, in the air, in space, and in cyberspace,” the sharing of intelligence and other “sensitive information” through secure channels, “logistics integration,” and “mutual access to defense infrastructure.” The treaty even approves the possibility of recruiting each other’s citizens into their armed forces on a mutual basis.
In plain English, all this means the following: Papua New Guinea is, in effect, losing the remnants of its even somewhat formal sovereignty (part of it, one could say, was left with the British Commonwealth; another part was taken by the US, which signed a less obligatory but almost identical military-technical cooperation agreement with PNG in 2023) and is signing up for the role of Australia’s squire. Or, more accurately, one of its squires.
The Wrong Kind of Falepili
The fact is that the Port Moresby treaty with Canberra fits perfectly into a troubling trend observed in Oceania: small island states, which already lack full autonomy in foreign and domestic policy, are voluntarily or under pressure ceding their remaining shares of sovereignty to Australia through such agreements. Earlier notable examples include Australia’s use of Nauru’s territory to host migrant detention centers, its police “cooperation” with the Solomon Islands, and the so-called “Falepili Treaty” with Tuvalu. According to the latter, Australia committed to “protecting” the small state from “external aggression” and accepting its residents as “climate refugees” should their territories be submerged due to rising sea levels. In return, Tuvalu lost the ability to make independent decisions in the spheres of foreign policy and security.
At the time, its citizens noticed something interesting: they nicknamed the treaty “falepili,” as in Tuvalu, this refers to a situation where one party does a genuine favor for another, expecting nothing in return, and can later ask for help in the same way. However, it turned out that Australia has its own understanding of “falepili,” fundamentally different from the Tuvaluan one. But by then, it was too late for the Tuvaluans to complain and say, like the bees in the famous cartoon, “That’s not right, falepili.”
Those Who Don’t Vote for Palestine
This inherently unequal interaction between Australia and its neighbors contributes to the limitation of Oceania’s sovereignty on a global scale. By exerting military-political and economic pressure on small island states and leveraging instruments of influence dating back to colonial times, the collective West uses its Oceanic partners merely as sources of raw materials and bargaining chips in its own ruthless political games.
We can regularly observe, for example, how the coerced votes of such specific international actors (due to their formal and de facto incomplete sovereignty) as the Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, or Tuvalu are used for anti-Russian resolutions, partial recognition of the Taiwanese regime, or, from recent events, countering the international recognition of Palestine. The diplomats of many Oceanic countries seem to feel no Global South solidarity with the Palestinian population. Following the lead of the US and Israel, such international heavyweights as Palau, Nauru, the Federated States of Micronesia, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga have already been compelled to voice their “weighty word” at the UN against the establishment of a Palestinian State.
When studying voting patterns in General Assembly resolutions, one is reminded of the joke that if a cat ran for office, only the mouse wouldn’t vote for it. In this case, it’s a specific contingent of politicians that votes for categories of issues beneficial to the West and “against” those that are not—those who, willingly or unwillingly, have found themselves dependent on Western coordinators and who, at some point, compromised the sovereignty of their states.
But it’s not just about resolutions! The governments of Fiji and Papua New Guinea went even further and, following the example of the US, Guatemala, Honduras, Paraguay, and the unrecognized Kosovo, moved their embassies to Jerusalem instead of Tel Aviv. By doing so, they openly display sympathy for Israel and the US, seemingly declaring that while they have no money for their own population’s social security, education, healthcare, agricultural support, or creating new industries, they somehow have the funds to move embassies to occupied territory.
At the same time, the obsequiousness of many Oceanic politicians towards the West is gradually beginning to cause ferment within their societies, which are tired of neocolonial practices. Moreover, this development is moving in the opposite direction, demanding an independent and multi-vector foreign policy. There are also emerging examples of active resistance to the imperialist treaties imposed by Australia. Notably, since 2022 (!), Vanuatu has been resisting the ratification of an agreement similar to the one with PNG. Serious internal political battles are underway there, and society has fully begun to realize that the issue of defense sovereignty is a matter of survival—for the country as an independent international actor and for normal relations with the rest of the world.
Incidentally, the Australia-Papua New Guinea treaty also still has to go through a ratification process. And the example of Vanuatu could prove useful for New Guinean society. Because only a critical understanding of the situation and a measured, rational approach to what is happening can help the states in this part of the world strive for a sovereign policy, rather than acting as tools in someone else’s hands and hostages to others’ interests.
Ksenia Muratshina, Ph.D. (History), Senior Research Fellow, Center for Southeast Asia, Australia, and Oceania Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
In Busan, China did not just stand firm—it watched America blink
By Salman Rafi Sheikh – New Eastern Outlook – November 16, 2025
Beyond the optics of handshakes and photo-ops at the Busan summit, the much-hyped Trump–Xi meeting laid bare the paradox that defines US–China relations today: deep economic interdependence coupled with unrelenting strategic rivalry.
Washington’s fear of Beijing’s ascent—and Beijing’s determination to rewrite the terms of global power—mean that even when the two leaders talk of “cooperation,” they are really negotiating the limits of competition. Far from heralding a new détente, the Busan meeting merely pressed pause on a conflict too entrenched to be resolved by diplomatic theatre.
The Summit of Distrust
At the Busan meeting, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping announced a limited set of economic and diplomatic understandings aimed at easing immediate tensions without altering the fundamentals of their rivalry. The U.S. agreed to reduce certain tariffs on Chinese imports, while China pledged to resume large-scale purchases of American agricultural products and to delay the expansion of its rare-earth export controls. Both sides promised greater cooperation on curbing fentanyl precursor exports and maintaining stable supply chains, and they reaffirmed the need to prevent escalation in trade and technology disputes.
While the Busan deal was hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough, it exposed a deeper void: there is still no framework for strategic coexistence between Washington and Beijing. The reason is simple—there is no trust. Beijing knows that under Donald Trump, U.S. foreign policy swings between confrontation and concession, depending on the political winds. And despite years of tariffs and rhetoric, Trump’s trade war has failed to dent China’s global standing. If anything, Beijing has learned how to weaponize US vulnerabilities. By withholding soybean purchases and rare-earth exports, it extracted precisely what it wanted in Busan: a rollback of select tariffs and a pause on new export controls. The so-called “agreement” restored the status quo—China promised to resume buying soybeans, a gesture aimed squarely at Trump’s Midwestern base, while deferring for a year the rare-earth restrictions that Washington fears most. The optics looked like cooperation; the substance showed who really dictated the terms.
Therefore, the Busan summit was less a diplomatic reset than a reckoning for Washington—a reminder of how limited its leverage over Beijing has become. After years of tariffs and bluster, the US has discovered that China can absorb the pain, reroute its exports across Asia, and keep its economy humming. The numbers tell the story: China’s trade surplus this year is projected to exceed last year’s record levels, and its stock market has surged more than 30 per cent in dollar terms, even as US inflation, stoked by tariff pressures, hit an election-year high of 3 per cent. Beijing has not only weathered the storm but also turned it into a strategy. By weaponising its $12 billion soybean market and dangling rare-earth supplies, China forced Washington into a truce on its own terms. In Busan, it wasn’t China that blinked.
Who will blink next?
The real question after Busan is not whether the US and China will clash again, but who will blink first. Washington’s arsenal of tariffs and tech bans is running up against the limits of its own economic pain threshold, while Beijing’s state-driven resilience is tested. Trump’s “America First” protectionism, fueled as it is by an aggressive form of politics, may soothe his domestic base, but it erodes US influence among allies, both in Europe and in Southeast Asia, who now see a power more obsessed with trade deficits than offering and/or providing strategic leadership. China, meanwhile, is playing a longer game: tightening regional supply chains, expanding the yuan’s footprint, and anchoring new trade corridors from Asia to Africa. Both sides are recalibrating rather than retreating, but the advantage increasingly lies with the player who can endure short-term costs for long-term control. If Busan revealed anything, it is that China is betting on (growing) American fatigue while America is still betting on Chinese collapse, which remains an unlikely event to take place even in the distant future.
In the end, Busan revealed not a reset but a reckoning: China has learned to endure pressure, while America has learned the limits of its own leverage. The US–China rivalry is now a contest of stamina, not ideology, in which Beijing appears better equipped to play the long game. With expanding regional trade networks, a growing technological base, and a much better, state-driven, and state-backed capacity to absorb external shocks, China has turned resilience into a strategy. Washington, by contrast, remains trapped between domestic populism and global ambition, unable to sustain confrontation without hurting itself. Busan showed that when forced to choose between economic pain and political optics, it is the US that blinks first. Therefore, what Washington can learn is this: in this rivalry of endurance, China’s patience—not America’s pressure—may prove decisive. The sooner it learns this lesson, the less it will hurt itself.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs
