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Russia would help Serbia if conflict were to break out – senator

Samizdat | August 1, 2022

If Serbia-Kosovo tensions spiral into an outright conflict, Moscow is ready to assist Belgrade without playing a direct role, a Russian senator has said. The two sides clashed on Sunday, with demonstrators building barricades and unknown gunmen reportedly firing on Kosovo police.

“It is very dangerous, it is the center of Europe, and everything can end in a very sad way, because NATO forces are stationed there (in Kosovo),” Russian Federation Council member Vladimir Dzhabarov said in an interview with RIA Novosti news agency on Monday.

According to the lawmaker, the situation “may end in an armed conflict, and as soon as NATO countries get in there, of course, there is a danger that other countries that are allies of Serbia will be drawn in.”

His remarks were in response to a feud between Serbia and its breakaway province, officially called the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija in the Serbian constitution, which received recognition by several Western powers in 2008.

The government in Kosovo planned to ban the use of Serbian-issued license plates and ID papers starting from August 1, and to prohibit entry for anyone using Serbian-issued plates or documents, while also refusing to print temporary papers for travelers.

Belgrade officials have called it an attack on Kosovo’s Serb minority, and President Aleksandar Vucic accused Pristina of violating the rights of local Serbs, who “will not suffer any more atrocities.” While offering a chance for peace, he warned on Sunday that his government would not sit idly by if Serbs were targeted.

Kosovo has denied a crackdown on Serbs and accused Belgrade officials of undermining “the rule of law” on their territory. Prime Minister Albin Kurti has accused local Serbs of opening fire on police, and claimed his government is facing “Serbian national-chauvinism” and “misinformation” from Belgrade.

Tensions flared on Sunday on the Kosovo-Serbia border. Serbs in the north of the breakaway province set up roadblocks and rang alarm bells, as heavily armed special police under Pristina’s authority took control of two administrative crossings with Serbia.

After a discussion with Washington, Kosovo officials decided to postpone the implementation of the controversial law for 30 days on the condition that Serbia remove barricades from the de facto border.

August 1, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Why are US road accidents sky-rocketing?

Free West Media | July 31, 2022

There has been a massive increase in traffic accidents in the United States since last year. Based on its observations, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) predicted some time ago that there would be a statistical increase in traffic deaths in at least 44 (out of 50) US states by 2021.

In fact, the number of fatalities in multi-vehicle accidents in cities and on urban roads in the United States increased by 16 percent from 2020. For people over the age of 65, the number of traffic deaths increased by 14 percent. The number of fatal pedestrian accidents increased by 13 percent. Even the number of fatalities on motorcycles increased by nine percent, and the number of fatalities on cyclists increased by five percent.

The states with the highest number of traffic-related fatalities are California, Texas, Florida and Washington DC.

NHTSA’s numbers represent the worst accident statistics since 2005 and the largest one-year percentage increase in the history of the Fatality Analysis Reporting System.

In absolute numbers: 43,000 Americans died on US roads in 2021 – the highest level in 16 years. The number of car accidents increased by ten percent in 2021 compared to 2020 and is still increasing. For 2022, the forecast is that 50,000 Americans will die in car accidents.

The NHTSA appears disinterested to find out why the rising number of accidents has reached a 16-year high coinciding with the “pandemic”. In contrast, the Governors Highway Safety Association (GHSA) blamed speeding, alcohol, drugs and distracted driving for the massive increase in road fatalities.

Some 270 million Americans have been vaccinated against Covid-19 with mRNA vaccines in the last two years. Already, behind closed doors, calls are being made for more autopsies to be carried out on the alleged “accident” victims. In any case, the increase in numbers correlates strikingly with the increasing numbers of collapsing athletes, public figures and, more recently, tourists worldwide.

July 31, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | | Leave a comment

China Unveils ‘Aircraft Carrier Killer’ Missile Amid Tensions Over Pelosi’s Indo-Pacific Trip

Samizdat – 31.07.2022

Beijing has for the first time unveiled a video featuring the launch of what appears to be a DF-17 hypersonic missile, which Chinese experts quoted by state media have described as an “aircraft carrier killer”.

The video, titled ‘The capabilities of the Chinese troops shown in 81 seconds’ was broadcast on China Central Television (CCTV) on Sunday, amid the ongoing tensions with the US over the possible visit to Taiwan of House of Representatives’ Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The video was published a day before the 95th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

A military expert quoted by Global Times said that potential enemies would have a “hard time” locating the new missile, which can be launched any time and anywhere.

Military observers have also said it is “almost impossible” to “intercept” the missile since it uses an “unpredictable trajectory”.

Further, experts have reckoned that the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the north-east Asian region are located within “striking range” of the missile, which can also hit slow-moving targets such as aircraft carriers.

The video surfaced a day after the PLA held “live-fire drills” near the Pingtan Islands in the Taiwan Strait. The Maritime Safety Administration warned ships to avoid the area from 8am to 9pm on Saturday. Beijing also conducted naval drills in the South China Sea on 29 and 30 July.

The US Navy this week confirmed that an aircraft carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan, and a strike group is at present operating in the South China Sea amid tensions over Pelosi’s trip to the region.

Beijing has issued several warnings over the past week saying that Washington would “bear the consequences” if Pelosi, who is now on her trip around the Indo-Pacific, visits Taiwan which Chinese authorities say would violate the ‘One China Policy’.

The possible visit has been attracting attention since mid-July when the Financial Times reported the alleged plans of the US House Speaker.

On Sunday, Pelosi shared her itinerary to the Indo-Pacific, without mentioning Taiwan among the places she was going to visit.

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned US President Joe Biden against “playing with fire” over Taiwan during a telephone call lasting more than two hours on 28 July.

“Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this,” Xi said, adding that Beijing would “resolutely” defend China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

As part of the One China Policy, Beijing opposes all forms of official contact between Taiwan and foreign governments and has warned of “resolute measures” should Pelosi visit the self-governed island.

July 31, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

China vows to defend its ‘territorial integrity’

Samizdat | July 31, 2022

The Chinese Air Force will circle Taiwan with fighter jets if necessary to “safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” a spokesman said on Sunday. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is heading to the region, but it is not yet clear if she will go ahead with a controversial visit to Taiwan, which Beijing firmly opposes.

Speaking at a military airshow on Sunday, Air force spokesman Shen Jinke said that China has many kinds of aircraft capable of circling “this precious island of our motherland.”

China’s Air Force “has the firm will, full confidence, and sufficient capability to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Shen added, according to a Reuters report citing Chinese state media.

Shen’s statement came as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi departed for Asia, announcing on Sunday that she would stop in Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan for “high-level meetings.” Pelosi had planned on visiting Taiwan during this trip, but stopped short of confirming or denying whether she would go through with this plan in recent days.

Beijing considers Taiwan, which has been ruled by a separate government since the late 1940s, to be part of its territory, and opposes high-level diplomatic recognition of the island’s authorities. Washington officially recognizes, but does not endorse, Beijing’s sovereignty over the island.

Should Pelosi go through with her visit, she would be the first speaker of the House of Representatives to do so since Newt Gingrich made the trip in 1997.

Speaking to Biden by phone on Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned the US leader not to “play with fire,” cautioning him that a visit by Pelosi would be perceived as a challenge to the country’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Biden himself said last week that a visit by the speaker would be “not a good idea,” but did not directly advise her against going.

July 31, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Russia Invites UN, Red Cross to Probe Shelling of Elenovka Pre-Trial Detention Center

Samizdat – 30.07.2022

MOSCOW – Russia has invited experts from the United Nations and the Red Cross to participate in the investigation into the deadly shelling of the pre-trial detention center in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) town of Elenovka, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

“In order to conduct an objective investigation of the attack on the pre-trial detention center in Elenovka, which led to the death of a large number of Ukrainian prisoners of war, the Russian Federation has officially invited experts from the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross,” the defense ministry said on Sunday.

The Elenovka detention center, hosting Ukrainian prisoners of war, was shelled by Ukrainian troops with US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) on Friday morning. According to the DPR territorial defense, the death toll from the strike has reached 53, and the number of wounded has surpassed 130.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) offered its support in the evacuation of the wounded on Friday. UN spokesman Farhan Haq said on Saturday that the United Nations was ready to conduct an investigation into the Elenovka shelling.

DPR head Denis Pushilin said on Friday that the shelling of the detention facility was premeditated and launched because the militants imprisoned there, particularly those from the nationalist Azov battalion, had started to give testimonies implicating the Kiev regime.

July 30, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Shouldn’t Biden be talking directly to Putin?

BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | INDIAN PUNCHLINE | JULY 30, 2022 

No sooner than Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov returned to Moscow after the SCO ministerial in Tashkent, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s pending request for a conversation was scheduled late Friday evening. This has been their first conversation since the war began in Ukraine in February. 

The Russian readout touches on Russia’s special military operations. Lavrov emphasised the inevitability that the “goals and tasks will be fully achieved.” Second, Lavrov told Blinken that the US’ continued arming of Ukraine with weapons “is only prolonging the agony of the Kiev regime by dragging out the conflict and increasing the number of victims.” 

Lavrov also said Russia will continue its “consistent efforts to restore peaceful life on the territories that it is liberating.” It implies that the integration of Kherson, Zoporozhia, Kharkiv, etc. is an inexorable process. 

Fourth, Lavrov focused on global food security issues and the grain deal and regretted that US is yet to deliver on “promises to make exemptions for Russian food shipments,” and the West is “exploiting the problem to advance its geopolitical interests, which is unacceptable.” 

Finally, on prisoner exchange, Lavrov “strongly advised” Blinken that this is not an amateurish issue and “dubious media leaks” should be avoided.  

For a conversation after several months, it was icy. Blinken is taking his time to issue a readout. But he was evasive on the issue of prisoner exchange, adding, “I’m not going to characterise his (Lavrov’s) response, and I can’t give you an assessment of whether I think things are any more or less likely.”  

Equally, on the grain deal, Blinken made no reference to the reciprocal lifting of restrictions on Russia’s export of grains and fertiliser. His interest was only on Russia making good on loosening its naval blockade and allowing grain shipments to leave Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. 

There is a hump appearing here, for sure. Zelensky’s trip to the Black Sea port of Chernomorsk near Odessa accompanied by G7 ambassadors suggests that Washington is switching back to the propaganda mode that Russia is impeding Ukraine’s exports. 

The New York Times has noted, “Even if grain ships do get underway, danger, uncertainty and deep mistrust will hang over the effort, and major obstacles to carrying out the agreement remain.”   

Such conversations as yesterday’s suffer from being totally opaque. Blinken can’t even articulate the substantive issues bothering Biden —the cracks in the western unity. 

Curiously, the Biden faces two crisis situations with explosive potential at the moment — in Ukraine and over Taiwan. Indeed, it is crystal clear that both have been precipitated by Washington. Yet, the manner in which Biden is handling them couldn’t be anymore dissimilar. 

In the case of Taiwan, Biden didn’t hesitate to call up Chinese President Xi Jinping to calm the tensions. But he has chosen a different path to communicate with President Vladimir Putin. 

For sure, into the sixth month of the conflict in Ukraine, Biden has finally decided to bite the bullet and resume high-level contact with Moscow. But he opted to get through to Putin through his state secretary! 

The problem here is, although US-China relations are tense, Biden never took it to a personal level. He never used derogatory language to spite Xi Jinping, as he did to Putin repeatedly.

But Blinken too faces a similar predicament. On July 7-8, he avoided shaking hands with Lavrov at the G20 ministerial at Bali and skipped the official banquet because Lavrov was there. But after such churlish behaviour, here he was yesterday seeking out Lavrov! 

The State Department reportedly sent out a circular recently to American embassies directing diplomats to dissuade foreign leaders from being photographed with Lavrov, so that Washington’s project to “isolate” Russia gained traction! Lavrov apparently learnt about it from his hosts! 

Unsurprisngly, Blinken had to first call a press conference to rationalise publicly his need to talk with someone whom he treated as a “pariah” only 3 weeks ago. Blinken is an intelligent man and senses that Biden is desperate to open a communication channel to the Kremlin. (Whether a Biden-Putin conversation figured in yesterday’s discussion we do not know.)

The point is, after five months of conflict in Ukraine, the Russian economy has not collapsed but is adjusting to a “new normal” in the geopolitical conditions. The Russian currency is doing splendidly well. And there has been no insurrection in Russia. Above all, Russia is winning the war in Ukraine and is gearing up to dictate the terms of peace. 

Lavrov must be well aware of the real reasons behind Blinken’s call. First, there is a catastrophic situation that may crack western unity, as the spectre of cutoff in Russian gas supplies threatens European countries. Four European governments have fallen so far. 

Everyone understands that it is much more than an energy crisis. As economies start crashing, social and political unrest will follow. There is pervasive disquiet in European capitals. The blame game has begun. 

Washington may not be able to salvage the job of European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen much longer. The  European leaders realise that Ursula played them with her personal crusade to punish Russia. 

There is a lot of pent-up resentment about Germany, too. Europeans don’t shed tears over Germany’s plight. Berlin’s imposition of harsh austerity programme on its southern neighbours is still painful memory. 

Therefore, Ursula’s latest hare-brained scheme to impose a 15% reduction in gas consumption on all EU countries (to bail out Berlin) faces resistance. Truly, there is no alternative to Russian gas and Washington has forgotten its promise to find replacement. 

Biden only brought this calamity down on the Europeans. Barack Obama’s private doubt is now public wisdom for Europeans — “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f… things up.” 

Lavrov also knows the second reason why Blinken wants to re-engage. The Russian special military operations are making good progress and all indications are that the Zelensky regime is crumbling. Thus, preparations have begun for holding referendums in Kherson and Zoporozhia regions to ascertain the wishes of the people. 

Russia has invited applications for citizenship from the residents of Kharkov as well, and ruble currency is being introduced. Putin just approved a 3-year master plan to rebuild Mariupol. The ancient city will soon have bridges, roads and schools that put Washington to shame. 

Most important, Biden must be worrying that even if he multiplies by a hundred times Washington’s carve-up of Kosovo as a nation state in 2008, it still wouldn’t match what is steadily unfolding in Ukraine. And Europeans are watching all this — speechless, in disbelief — as territorial boundaries get redrawn in their manicured continent. 

There are new facts on the ground since March when Russia and Kiev reached an agreement in Istanbul (which the hawkish Biden team promptly torpedoed by promising the moon to Zelensky.) So much water has flown down the Dnieper since then. Watch the video, below, of Biden’s landmark April 28 war speech

July 30, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan is Fraught With Risk of Military Escalation

Samizdat – 29.07.2022

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is planning to travel to Taiwan, an island regarded by Beijing as an inalienable part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as a leg of a broader Asia trip. Even though Pelosi has yet to confirm the visit, tensions have escalated sharply between the US and the PRC.

“Remember what happened in 1983? Two days after 241 Marines were blown up in Lebanon, the USA invaded tiny Grenada. Overnight, the previous headlines disappeared. I think we are seeing the same today. NATO is losing badly in Ukraine and it’s going to be a long winter for the West. Pounding its imperial chest with Taiwan is now what the MSM is reporting, much less so Ukraine,” suggests Jeff J. Brown, author of “The China Trilogy,” editor at China Rising Radio Sinoland, and curator of the Bioweapon Truth Commission.

If Pelosi travels to Taiwan, this would be the first time a high-ranking US politician visits the place in 25 years. Last time it was Newt Gingrich, then-speaker of the US House of Representatives, who arrived on the island in 1997, ignoring the Chinese leadership’s discontent.

“I said firmly, ‘We want you to understand, we will defend Taiwan. Period,'” Gingrich told the press at the time, as quoted by The New York Times. However, Clinton administration officials made it clear that Gingrich “was speaking for himself.”

Likewise, it appears that Pelosi’s apparent visit to Taiwan is not in line with the Biden administration’s China policy, argues Francesco Sisci, a Beijing-based China expert, author, and columnist.

“American politics is not set like an omniscient Leviathan,” the China expert says. “The Congress, the Senate, the executive all move according to different agendas which do not often coincide and are in conflict with one another. The issue is that there is a growing anti-Beijing sentiment in America and this has sometimes bursts which aren’t fully sorted out. I believe the visit is an expression of a sentiment, rather than of a clear cut plan.”

According to CNN, Pelosi’s initiative has triggered concerns both in the Biden administration and the Pentagon, with US national security officials “quietly working to convince House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the risks of her potential trip to Taiwan.” While in 1997 Beijing and Washington managed to solve the dilemma, this time the PRC leadership might opt for a harsher response, CNN and The Guardian have warned.

Washington has been fanning US-Sino tensions for quite a while, starting with Donald Trump’s tariff war against Beijing, which has yet to be halted by Joe Biden. In a candid phone conversation, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned his American counterpart against “playing with fire” over Taiwan and explained that any involvement would ultimately backfire on the US.

“A Chinese general has publicly declared that Pelosi’s visit could entail a military response from Beijing,” Brown says. “China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeated this. Now, with Xi’s ‘You get burned playing with fire’ metaphor, I think there would be a military response.”

Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Defense, stated on July 26: “If the US insists on taking its own course, the Chinese military will never sit idly by, and it will definitely take strong actions to thwart any external force’s interference.”

Tan highlighted that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would “seriously violate the one-China principle” and “seriously harm China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and seriously damage the political foundation of China-US relations.”

Meanwhile, Brown surmises that China’s hypothetical response “might include a declared no-fly zone.” However, there is a “much more elegant option,” according to the author:
“[China could] take over Taiwan’s Kinmen Island, which is only two kilometers from Xiamen, off China’s Fujian Province coast. It would take only a few hours. I do not think Beijing will strike any US targets, unless attacked first.”

The scholar also does not rule out that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) remark, made earlier this week, that Pyongyang is “fully prepared” for any military conflict with the United States is no coincidence.

“Does Biden know that China and nuclear-armed North Korea have had a mutual defense treaty since 1961?” Brown asks rhetorically. “NATO is being bled dry in Ukraine and it is imperial folly, hubris or geopolitical brinkmanship to think it can fight East Asia’s biggest and most powerful military, which is only 200 km from Taiwan.”

For his part, Sisci believes that the PRC could opt for an asymmetrical non-military response. Still, the unfolding crisis is complicated by the fact that Washington is already involved in a confrontation with Russia, raising questions as to whether the US is capable of taking on Moscow and Beijing at once.

“I don’t think that either China or the US wants an escalation,” says Sisci. “The talk between Biden and Xi Jinping was to avoid an escalation.”

Brown also believes that Beijing’s warnings have been heard by Washington.

“Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has been bandied about by Washington for months now,” he says. “A supposed Covid-19 infection scuttled the first trial balloon. After Biden’s phone call yesterday with Xi, I suspect another American ‘postponement’ is likely to occur. If not, then ‘Katy, bar the door!'”

July 29, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Play with fire – get burned, China warns US

Samizdat | July 28, 2022

Taiwan is a part of China and the 1.4 billion Chinese will not tolerate any challenges to the country’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, President Xi Jinping told his US counterpart, Joe Biden, in a phone call on Thursday. Xi’s warning comes amid reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is preparing to visit the island next month, something Beijing has warned her against.

Xi “highlighted that the historical ins and outs of the Taiwan question are crystal clear, and so are the fact and status quo that both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one and the same China,” according to Beijing’s readout of Thursday’s call, also noting that Biden was the one who initiated it.

China is firmly opposed to Taiwanese separatism and will not tolerate “independence” for the island “in whatever form,” Xi told Biden, in the first direct call between the two leaders since March 18.

“Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this.”

According to the readout, Xi also told Biden that the US approach to China as the primary rival, strategic competitor, and a security challenge “would be misperceiving China-US relations and misreading China’s development,” adding that US attempts at “decoupling or severing supply chains in defiance of underlying laws” would not help its economy, but “only make the world economy more vulnerable.”

China and the US need to “uphold the international system centering on the UN and the international order underpinned by international law,” said Xi, who also “reiterated China’s principled position” on the crisis in Ukraine.

The much shorter White House readout of the call did not mention Ukraine or the specifics of economic discussions, instead singling out the issues of “climate change and health security.” It did, however, say that the call was “part of the Biden Administration’s efforts to maintain and deepen lines of communication between the United States and the PRC and responsibly manage our differences and work together where our interests align.”

When it comes to Taiwan, Biden “underscored that the US policy has not changed and that the US strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” according to the White House.

Tensions between China and the US have escalated in recent weeks, after reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) intended to take a congressional delegation to Taiwan in August.

Pelosi has neither confirmed nor denied the trip. Asked about it earlier this month, Biden said the US military thought it was “not a good idea right now.”

Since then, however, the Pentagon has reportedly developed a “contingency plan” to send additional ships and fighter jets to the region. Meanwhile, Chinese officials threatened the US with “unbearable consequences” should Pelosi go forward with her visit, and some pundits even advocated attacking Taiwan in response to such a “provocation.”

House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan in 1997, but as government officials in Beijing have noted, he was opposition leader at the time, while Pelosi is from the same party as Biden.

Taiwan has been ruled by the nationalist Kuomintang, who found refuge on the island after losing the civil war to the Communists in 1949 and leaving the mainland with US help.

July 28, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

China reinforces bilateral ‘guardrail’ to US

Partisan struggle may ‘bring crisis to Taiwan Straits’

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi | Photo: VCG
By Yang Sheng and Liu Xuanzun | Global Times | July 28, 2022

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s unconfirmed plan of a trip to the island of Taiwan keeps troubling the US as Pelosi, US President Joe Biden and Democrats are now facing pressure instead of “encouragements” from the Republicans on the matter, with Chinese experts warning that if the US eventually let the partisan struggle and internal politics hijack its strategic decision-making, it would definitely bring a new crisis in the Taiwan Straits.

Republicans knew that Democrats, especially Pelosi and Biden, are now facing a dilemma – visiting the island may prompt China’s military reaction and a serious geopolitical crisis will emerge and Pelosi will be in danger as well. According to analysts, canceling the trip will benefit Republicans, as they can say that Democrats are being too weak and dare not to challenge China. The Biden administration and Pelosi still have a chance to keep the mistake from becoming a much bigger one, and if they – both Democrats and Republicans – underestimate China’s warning, it would be extremely dangerous.

China has issued six warnings in the past few days and has stressed the danger of the US provocations, including those coming from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of National Defense and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council.

On Tuesday, China’s top political advisor Wang Yang stressed the importance of upholding the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus, and called for jointly striving to achieve the reunification of the motherland, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

Wang, at a meeting in Beijing marking the 30th anniversary of the 1992 Consensus, said the Taiwan authorities’ denial of the 1992 Consensus, along with certain countries’ connivance and instigation of the secessionists’ provocation, will only plunge Taiwan into catastrophe, and cause misery for Taiwan people.

He warned that no individual and no force should underestimate the resolve, the will, and the ability of the Chinese people to defend their national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Analysts said the high-profile commemoration for the 1992 Consensus has once again highlighted the bottom line of China on the Taiwan question. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had already told US State Secretary Antony Blinken at a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Indonesia that “the three China-US joint communiqués are the most reliable guardrails for the two countries.”

China is telling the US loud and clear where the bilateral “guardrails” are, and the US should keep its promise of not supporting Taiwan secessionism. If Washington doesn’t keep the bilateral ties away from the edge but instead, insists on crashing against the “guardrails,” the consequence will definitely be a deadly disaster, experts warn.

Sick partisan politics

Pelosi’s reported plan has “upended Washington’s political divide,” with prominent Republicans offering encouragement to a political opponent they normally scorn, AP reported on Tuesday.

Pelosi’s supporters include a conservative Republican senator, at least two former Trump administration officials, including former secretary of state Mike Pompeo who is sanctioned by China, and Newt Gingrich, the speaker of a Republican-controlled House under Democratic president Bill Clinton, who made a trip to the island in 1997. They are urging Biden to back the trip even as China threatens a forceful response if she goes.

Some Democrat Congress members also joined the choir of encouraging voices, according to NBC News on Wednesday. This dangerous trend reflects that the US partisan struggle has made politicians in Washington blind to actual risks that could cause geopolitical disaster, while they keep only the midterm elections in sight.

“Republicans’ encouragements to Pelosi are more like setting a trap than real approval. If Pelosi eventually goes to the island and causes a military crisis that the US can’t handle, Republicans can still criticize the Biden administration for the failure to handle a crisis,” said a Beijing-based senior expert on international relations who asked for anonymity.

A Chinese proverb goes that “When the weasel pays respects to the hen, his intentions are certainly not good,” which perfectly describes the Republicans’ push for Pelosi’s possible visit, he noted.

Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday, “Republicans would love to see the Biden administration’s situations, both internal and external, to get as messy as possible, because they want to maximize the advantage to win the upcoming midterm elections.”

Pelosi just made a very big mistake to have made such a plan though she still refuses to confirm or deny it publicly, which could only bring trouble and nothing good for Democrats at the moment, Lü said.

“Maybe before the information got leaked to the media, she had underestimated how serious the consequences would be, and the firm response made by China,” Lü remarked.

The above-quoted anonymous expert stressed that “the Biden administration and Pelosi still have an opportunity to keep the mistake away from worsening into a huge geopolitical crisis, otherwise, if Pelosi gets eventually taken over by the pressures from Republicans, and decides to make the provocative move to visit the island of Taiwan, the US partisan struggle would spark a new round of Taiwan Straits crisis.”

Possibilities and consequences

Pelosi’s plan is a big headache for Biden, and the White House has publicly told media multiple times that Biden is seeking talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, about which the Chinese side has released no information. Experts say Pelosi’s plan of visiting Taiwan island will definitely worsen the atmosphere and the conditions for possible talks between the two heads of states.

“Biden wants to engage with the Chinese top leader to seek help for the relief of inflation pressure as well as for the management of the competition and differences between the two sides, but when Pelosi, the House speaker who is in the same party as the president, is likely to make an extreme provocation against China on the most sensitive Taiwan question, it’s very unlikely to be conductive to constructive and friendly talks, and the agenda of such an exchange would also be greatly impacted,” Lü noted.

China has set a “very high guardrail” to keep the China-US relations away from falling off a cliff, but now it seems that the US, or some US politicians, are intending to crash through that “guardrail,” Lü said.

Tan Kefei, a spokesperson of China’s Ministry of National Defense, said on Tuesday the Chinese armed forces will by no means sit idly by, on the contrary, they will take strong measures to thwart any external interferences and “Taiwan independence” secessionist attempts, resolutely safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Chinese mainland analysts and experts said that Tan’s remarks indicate that the PLA is fully prepared to respond if Pelosi does visit the island.

The PLA can send fighter jets to intercept Pelosi’s plane if it approaches Taiwan, then escort it and have it landed in the Chinese mainland, another Chinese mainland military expert who requested anonymity told the Global Times on Wednesday.

An alternative is that the PLA can declare air and maritime zones around the island of Taiwan as restriction zones for military exercises, Song Zhongping, a Chinese mainland military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

In addition, the PLA can conduct large-scale military drills around the island of Taiwan, including on the waters between Taiwan island and Japan as well as between Taiwan island and Guam, experts said. The drills should include joint efforts of all PLA service branches, with all combat elements including electronic warfare, missile and long-range rocket strikes, seizing of air superiority and control of sea, amphibious landing, as well as anti-access and area denial against external military interference, they said.

On Monday a TB-001 drone of the PLA made a full circle flight around the island of Taiwan for the first time, media on the island reported on Tuesday, but Taiwan’s defense authority failed to report its activity. This exposed the island’s defense loopholes against drones, which is a great vulnerability the PLA can exploit, analysts said.

Lü noted that no matter what military actions the PLA may take, one thing is for sure, “as the status quo has already been broken by the US’ side due to Pelosi’s visit, China will actively shape a new status quo with comprehensive measures including military actions, aimed at making the best use of the US’ mistakes and at fully taking control of the Taiwan Straits situation to better promote the reunification process in the future.”

July 27, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Russia’s Vostok 2022 has big messages

BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | INDIAN PUNCHLINE | JULY 27, 2022

The announcement by Russian Defence Ministry on Tuesday on Vostok-22 strategic command post exercises during August 30-September 5 gives a big message to the West in political and military terms. 

The announcement said, “In addition to the troops (forces) of the Eastern Military District, units of the Airborne Troops, Long Range Aviation and Military Transport Aviation, as well as military contingents from other states, will be involved in these manoeuvres.” 

If there is going to be participation by China, it will be highly significant in the present context of global politics, especially in the Far East. 

Vostok 2018, held exactly four years ago, was the first time such a massive military exercise was held after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. (At the height of the Cold War in 1981 under Leonid Brezhnev, the Soviet Union held its last Vostok exercise). In the event, Vostok 2018 turned into a Russia-China gun show. 

The Russian Federation put more than 300,000 troops in the field—alongside tens of thousands of tanks, helicopters, and weapons of every sort—for a huge war game in Russia’s far-eastern reaches, and invited the Chinese People’s Liberation Army to play along, which it did.

And a whole new groove in international affairs began appearing, signifying that the interests of Russia and China have once again begun to align — this time around, in response to US military power under a pugnacious president, Donald Trump.  

On the sidelines of the exercise, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping had a breakfast of blinis together in Vladivostok. It was a powerful signal that Russia no longer saw China as an adversary but as a potential military ally. It was widely noted internationally as heralding a major shift in the co-relation of forces in world politics. 

To be sure, any Chinese participation in Vostok 2022 will be similarly subjected to close analysis by Washington and its allies at a time of heightened tension in US-China relations, with Beijing warning last week to take “resolute and strong measures” should the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi proceed with reported plans to visit Taiwan. 

China has vowed to annex Taiwan by force if necessary, and has advertised that threat by flying warplanes near Taiwanese airspace and holding military exercises based on invasion scenarios. At a meeting in Singapore early July  with Chairman, US Joint Chiefs of Staff, the chief of the Joint Staff Department of China’s Central Military Commission Gen. Li Zuocheng  had warned that Chinese military would “resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. If anyone creates a wanton provocation, they will be met with the firm counterattack from the Chinese people.” 

However, at the end of the day, Chinese participation in Vostok 2022 will be seen as an expression of solidarity with Russia in the best spirit of the February 4 joint statement by the two leaderships, which states that  “Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation.” 

No matter the usual mantra that the Vostok 2022 is not directed against any third party, its optics will be as a counter to the US pressure on Russia and China. Both Russia and China face new security challenges in the Far East in the recent period — especially, the revival of “militarism” in Japan, NATO’s growing Asia-Pacific posturing, and the belligerence in the US’ provocations over Taiwan. 

Tass news agency has reported that the Russian Defence Ministry has proposed certain amendments to Russia’s Federal Law “On territorial waters, territorial sea and the contiguous zone of the Russian Federation”, putting restrictions on the passage of foreign military ships through the Northern Sea Route connecting Europe and East Asia. 

The proposed amendment will require foreign military and state ships to sail through the Northern Sea Route without entering ports or naval bases, and, furthermore, seek permission from Russian authorities at least 90 days in advance. The amendment will effectively restrict the use of the shortest sea route to Asia for the western navies operating in the Asia-Pacific region. 

Significantly, this Russian move comes in the wake of the NATO’s plans to forge stronger security links between the North Atlantic area and Asia-Pacific countries (Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand) in a coordinated strategy to counter China’s rise.  

Equally, the staging of Vostok 2022 comes at a juncture when Russia’s military operations in Ukraine are entering a crucial phase. In a major speech in Moscow on July 7 at a meeting with leaders of the parliament, Putin warned that everyone should understand that Russia “by and large hasn’t started anything seriously yet” in Ukraine.

To be sure, Vostok 2022 flies in the face of western propaganda that Russian military capabilities are steadily weakening due to the conflict in Ukraine. The MOD announcement on Vostok 2022 made it a point to touch on it indirectly.

The MOD statement said, “A number of foreign media are spreading inaccurate information about alleged mobilisation activities. Please note that only a part of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is involved in the special military operation, the number of which is sufficient to fulfil all the tasks set by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.

“Moreover, none of the planned operational and combat training and military-technical and international cooperation activities of the Russian Ministry of Defence have been cancelled and will be provided with the necessary personnel, weapons, military equipment and materials.” 

This is only logical, since, following the massive haemorrhage suffered by the Ukrainian military in the past 5-month period, the military balance is now working favourably for the Russian forces. Equally, the Russian military strategy to grind the Ukrainian forces with heavy artillery and missile strikes and the slow pace of the conflict also mean that the operations are sustainable over a prolonged period.

At any rate, given the hostile posturing of the NATO forces all along Russia’s western borders, it is inconceivable that Moscow would have taken risks by heavily committing its forces to the Ukraine operations. Interestingly, Germany’s army chief Lieutenant General Alfons Mais told Handelsblatt newspaper recently in an interview that Russia has “almost inexhaustible” resources.  

In the general’s estimation, “With its artillery superiority, the Russian army is apparently working its way forward kilometre by kilometre. This is a war of attrition that will raise the question of how long Ukraine can hold out… The Russian army is getting stronger, and Russia has resources that are almost inexhaustible.” 

The focus of Vostok 2022 will be “on the use of groupings of troops (forces) to ensure military security.” It will be staged in 12 different locations spread across the Eastern Military District, one of Russia’s five military districts, with  a vast geographical spread of 7 million sq. kilometres, headquartered in Khabarovsk on the Amur river in the Russian Far East near the Russia-China border, and comprises the regions up to Sakhalin Oblast, which includes Kuril Islands.

July 27, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Black Sea and three musketeers

BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | INDIAN PUNCHLINE | JULY 26, 2022 

As the conflict in Ukraine slouches toward Odessa, the war gets elevated to the sphere of a romantic adventure. If Alexander Dumas was alive, the idea might have struck him to write a sequel to his Three Musketeers, the historical novel written in 1844, which has heroic, chivalrous swordsmen who fight for justice, highlighting the absurdities of the Ancient Régime in a setting when the debate in France between republicans and monarchists was still fierce. 

The absurdity of raking up a non-existent controversy over the Russian missile strike on Odessa on Friday casts Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the second time in a lead role with three swashbuckling musketeers —  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, UN Secretary-General António Guterres and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. 

The first time was when Zelensky acted in a Russian musical film based on Dumas’ novel, with three beautiful Soviet actresses — Anna Ardova, Ruslana Pysanka and Alyona Sviridova — as musketeers, which was released in Moscow on New Year’s Eve in 2004.  

Coming back to time present, on Friday, it was a controversy waiting to happen when Russia fired four high precision Kalibr missiles and destroyed Ukrainian military infrastructure in Odessa Port just a day after the Russia-Ukraine grain deal was signed in Istanbul, which provides for the resumption of grain exports from the region. 

Zelensky promptly shouted that the missile strike was a “barbaric” act. And  Blinken came on the line to level charges against Russia; Guterres jumped into the fray “unequivocally” condemning the Russian strike; and, Borrell lazily wrote on Tweeter that the missile strike was “particularly reprehensible & again demonstrates Russia’s total disregard for international law & commitments.” 

As for the Russians, well, they slept over it — that is, until Sunday, when late in the afternoon, the Defence Ministry in Moscow inserted two tersely-worded sentences into its customary daily bulletin on the day’s operations in Ukraine:  

“Attack launched by high-precision long-range sea-based missiles has resulted in the elimination of Ukrainian military ship and a depot of Harpoon anti-ship missiles delivered by USA to the Kiev regime in the seaport of Odessa. The list of neutralised targets also includes the production facilities of an entity specialised in repairing and modernising the fleet of Ukrainian Navy.” 

Zelensky soon issued a clarification that the implementation of the grain deal from Odessa Port was not in doubt. Apparently, he hadn’t coordinated with the three musketeers sitting elsewhere who reacted prematurely. Blinken probably did the logical thing by distracting attention from the corruption concerns being revived in the Beltway regarding America’s gravy train to Ukraine. 

Fundamentally, the grain deal is an eyesore for the Biden administration, which in the first instance never expected an agreement could be negotiated that requires great flexibility on the Russian military’s side. Even more galling is that the deal is turning out to be a political victory for Russia. 

Moscow is getting good publicity over its pragmatism to lift its naval blockade for addressing the global food crisis. But  what is not obvious to most people is that the grain deal is also a back-to-back deal which commits the UN to get the restrictions being put by the EU and the US on Russia’s grain and fertiliser exports lifted. 

Besides, apart from the big income out of grain and fertiliser exports, there is that unquantifiable goodwill that Moscow earns from so many countries which critically depend on Russian wheat, especially in West Asia and Africa. Evidently, the itch to spoil the party in Moscow was found irresistible by Blinken & Co.  

Enter Sergey Lavrov. From Oyo, Republic of the Congo, deep in the heart of Africa, where he was travelling to follow up on the grain deal — Russia is the number 1 grain supplier to Africa — Foreign Minister Lavrov sensed immense potentials in the emergent situation. Lavrov made three points while flying out of Oyo in the direction of Kampala: 

  • The grain deal contains nothing “to bar us from continuing the special military operation and hit military infrastructure and other military targets. And the United Nations secretariat representatives… confirmed this interpretation of the documents yesterday.” (Guterres was apparently unaware.) 
  • The missile strike was aimed at “a separate part of the Odessa port, the so-called military part” and, therefore, “there are no obstacles for shipping grain to contractors under the Istanbul agreements and we have created none.” (Indeed, Zelensky himself is acknowledging it.) 
  • The missile strike was aimed at the depot where the Pentagon’s Harpoon anti-ship missiles were stored. “These missiles were delivered to pose threats to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Now, they pose no threats.”

What Lavrov didn’t say but would have implied is that the Odessa war theatre has now become “kinetic” and Friday’s attack sets a precedent. The missile strike underscores that Moscow likely anticipated Pentagon’s antics to use the grain deal to shield its deployment of advanced Harpoon missiles in Odessa Port. 

Curiously, off Bulgaria, next door to Odessa, on July 14-25, the US took part in a multinational maritime exercise, Breeze 2022,  involving 24 warships, cutters, auxiliary vessels, five planes, and four helicopters manned by 1,390 naval personnel from eleven NATO member countries!  

The controversy over the missile strike highlights that Russia’s special military operations in Ukraine will remain incomplete and inconclusive until Moscow altogether cuts off the US’ and NATO’s access to Odessa Port and cripples the alliance’s capability in the Black Sea. Obviously, that’s still some way off. 

Meanwhile, the great game is accelerating in the Black Sea with Blinken doubling down to woo Azerbaijan. He spoke with President Aliyev on Monday to press Washington’s pending offer “in helping facilitate the opening of regional transportation and communication linkages.” Azerbaijan is the chosen bridgehead for NATO in southern Caucasus. (See my blog Ukraine’s Great Game surfaces in Transcaucasia.)

July 26, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

A Gratuitous Insult in Jeddah

By John Whitbeck | CounterPunch | July 21, 2022

The most quoted words from the speech which President Biden read on July 16 while seated at a table in Jeddah with the leaders of eight autocracies (the six GCC monarchies, Egypt and Jordan) and the interim prime minister of one dysfunctional remnant of American regime change (Iraq) was: “We will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran. And we’ll seek to build on this moment with active, principled American leadership. The United States is not going anywhere.”

In light of all the chaos, death and destruction which the United States has wreaked on the region over the past two decades, many in the region — and even at the table — might have wondered whether this pronouncement should be viewed as a promise or a threat.

More importantly, it is remarkable that whoever wrote these words (presumably Tony Blinken and/or Jake Sullivan) did not grasp how insulting they were to the nine leaders to whom they were, at least formally, addressed and to their countries.

The first clear implication of these words is that the countries of the region do not possess either the capacity or the right to stand on their own feet and determine their own destinies but are destined always to be dominated by some outside greater power — in the recent past, the Ottomans, British and French and more recently the Americans — and that the Americans fully intend to maintain their current position of dominance.

The second clear implication of these words is that the countries of the region are not of interest to the United States for any reason inherent in their peoples, their societies or their histories but purely as pawns on the great geopolitical game board on which the United States competes for power and influence against its own demonized adversaries.

Such is the state of American “diplomacy” today.

In their defense, the speechwriters may not actually have been addressing those words to the people in the room but, rather, through the media, to Americans who were questioning why Biden was making this trip at all, and they may also have assumed that no one in the room would take anything that Biden said seriously.

The words with which Biden ended his speech were no doubt not written in the paper text in his hands: “And God protect our troops.”

These are the ritual words with which Biden concludes virtually all of his political speeches on home territory. When he uttered them at the end of his famous “Putin must go!” speech in Warsaw, they were not inappropriate, since he was promising more war. However, at the end of his speech in Jeddah, in which he was professing to be interested in peace and stability in the region, they were simply bizarre.

July 25, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

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