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Orban’s Insight Into The Global Systemic Transition & Hungarian Grand Strategy Is Worth Reading

By Andrew Korybko | August 2, 2024

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban elaborated on the global systemic transition and his country’s grand strategy within it during a lengthy speech at the Balvanyos Free Summer University and Student Camp over the weekend. The over 11,000-word English transcript was published on Monday, which the present piece will summarize for the reader’s convenience. It began with him reaffirming that it’s his Christian duty to promote peace and mocking the EU for its Orwellian “war is peace” mantra.

He then said that the Ukrainian Conflict was a “red pill” for him and proceeded to elaborate on the ten ways in which it opened his eyes to reality. First, there have been enormous casualties on both sides, but each will continue fighting unless external stakeholders diplomatically intervene since they’re convinced that they’ll win. Second, the US went from containing China to waging a proxy war on Russia, which pushed those two together and prompted questions about why the US would do this.

Third, Ukraine’s resilience in spite of its objective economic and demographic weaknesses can be explained by its sense of mission that fills it with a higher purpose, which is to become the West’s eastern military frontier. Fourth, Russia has also proven itself to be impressively resilient, and it’s nowhere near collapsing like Western leaders hubristically predicted. Fifth, the EU has undergone fundamental changes since the latest phase of the Ukrainian Conflict began two and half years ago.

It now follows the US Democrats’ lead instead of retaining its strategic autonomy, and the traditional Franco-German axis is now challenged like never before by Poland, which has allied with the UK, Ukraine, the Baltic States, and Scandinavia to create a new center of power in Europe. This is actually an old Polish plan (Pilsudski’s “Intermarium” from the interwar period) adapted to contemporary conditions brought about by the Ukrainian Conflict and fully assisted by the US.

Sixth, the West’s standards are no longer universal and it’s experiencing “spiritual solitude” after the entire non-West refused to follow its lead in isolating Russia. Seventh, the biggest problem in the world is the weakness and disintegration of the West caused by its lack of leadership and seemingly irrational policies, which is accelerating China’s rise as its global systemic challenger. Eighth, Western Europe’s worldview is now post-national while Central Europe still believes in the sanctity of the nation-state.

This dichotomy explains the West’s seemingly irrational policies since each half of Europe is operating according to a completely different philosophy. The US is also experiencing a similar division between those like Trump who want it to remain a nation-state and his opponents who want it to become a post-national state. According to Orban, this division owes its origins to the sexual revolution and student rebellions from over half a century ago, which sought to free people from any form of collective identity.

Ninth, the West’s post-national trends are convulsing democracy and leading to friction between the elite/elitism and the people/populism. And finally, the tenth red pill is that Western soft power/values aren’t universal but are actually counterproductive since Russia’s strongest international attraction nowadays is its resistance to LGBTQ. Orban then said that these trends are leading to the rise of the non-West, which he believes first began with China’s admission to the WTO in 2001 and might be irreversible.

Trump’s priority is to rebuild and strengthen North America, to which end he’ll squeeze the US’ European and Asian allies while negotiating better deals with China. His end game is to make the US self-sufficient in energy and raw materials so that it can stand a better chance at retaining its declining position in global affairs. The EU has two options: it can either become an “open-air museum” (passive international actor) absorbed by the US or pursue strategic autonomy in order improve its standing in the world.

What’s needed is more connectivity, a European military alliance with its own defense industry (albeit without federalization), energy self-sufficiency, reconciliation with Russia, and admitting that Ukraine won’t join the EU or NATO. It’ll return to its prior role as a buffer zone and will be lucky if it gets security guarantees in a US-Russian agreement. Poland’s power play will fail because it lacks the resources to replace Germany so Orban expects that his “Polish brothers and sisters” will return to Central Europe.

He also considers all of these changes to be an opportunity. Developments in the US favor Hungary, but it must be careful about any deals it might offer due to the Polish precedent. Warsaw bet everything on Washington and received support for its strategic goals, but now it’s “subject to the imposition of a policy of democracy export, LGBTQ, migration and internal social transformation.” Orban ominously notes that this combination risks of the loss of Polish national identity if these trends continue unabated.

Hungary will remain in the EU, but the bloc’s East-West divisions between those that correspondingly respect the nation-state and those that are moving beyond it will widen. The EU must also accept that it’s the loser in the Ukrainian Conflict, the US will abandon this proxy war, and the EU can’t realistically pick up the tab. All the while, Hungary will rely on China for modernizing its economy and boosting its exports, which will lead to mutually beneficial outcomes.

A Hungarian grand strategy is required in order to maximally take advantage of the opportunities brought about by the ten previously described red pills and their abovementioned consequences. What’s already been decided upon since his government began work on this after the 2022 elections isn’t yet digestible and widely comprehensible by the public, and he said that it’ll take around six months for everything to become clearer for them, but he still shared the gist of what this grand strategy entails.

The first part is what he describes as connectivity, which he explained as being plugged in to both the Eastern and Western halves of the global economy. The second is sovereignty, with a focus on the economic dimension by promoting national companies on the world market, reducing debt, becoming a regional creditor, and boosting domestic production. The final part is bolstering his society’s resilience by halting demographic decline, preserving villages, and maintaining Hungary’s distinct culture.

Orban ended by explaining that all Hungarians across the world must help advance this grand strategy. The global systemic transition is expected to last another 20-25 years so the next generation will be tasked with completing its implementation. Their liberal opponents will try to offset this, but such efforts can be counteracted by recruiting young nationalists to the cause. The impression that one gets after reading through his speech in full is that Orban is this generation’s most visionary European leader.

August 3, 2024 Posted by | Economics | , , , , | Leave a comment

EU rebuffs members’ complaints over Ukraine blocking Russian crude transit

RT | August 1, 2024

The European Commission (EC) has rejected complaints by Hungary and Slovakia over Ukraine’s suspension of Russian energy supply through pipelines on its territory, advising the two EU member states to look for alternative suppliers.

The Hungarian and Slovak governments had earlier asked the EC to intervene in their dispute with Kiev, after the latter placed sanctions on Russian energy company Lukoil, depriving the two landlocked countries of crude supplies via a pipeline through Ukraine. Last month, Budapest and Bratislava sent a letter to the EU executive, urging it to open emergency consultations with Ukraine over the move, which they insist violates Kiev’s 2014 trade agreement with Brussels.

On Thursday, EC spokesperson Balazs Ujvari stated, as quoted by Politico, that urgent consultations “do not appear to be guaranteed.” He argued that in the commission’s preliminary assessment, the sanctions didn’t pose “an immediate risk to [both countries’] security of supply.”

In a letter to Budapest and Bratislava seen by the Financial Times, EU trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said that they could use an existing pipeline bringing shipborne crude from Croatia, adding that “diversification away from Russian fossil fuels should be actively pursued.”

In June, Ukraine blocked the pipeline transit of Russian crude sold by Lukoil to Central Europe. Kiev imposed sanctions on Lukoil in 2018, having banned the company from divesting its business in the country, as well as prohibiting trade operations and participation in the privatization or leasing of state property. Lukoil still sent crude via the southern arm of the Druzhba pipeline as the EU sanctions did not target these flows.

Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic had sanctions exemptions set up by Brussels to give countries reliant on Russian oil extra time to find alternative supplies.

On Tuesday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto claimed that the EC may be behind the suspension of the Russian oil supplies through Ukraine. The move could be directly targeted at Budapest and Bratislava, he suggested.

Slovakia and Hungary are the only EU members that have refused to back the bloc’s policy of supplying Kiev with military aid amid the conflict with Russia. Both have repeatedly called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov accused Ukraine of making a “political decision” and claimed the situation is “critical” for those still buying Russian oil.

August 2, 2024 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

Hungary Rejects Croatian Oil Route Over High Fees and EU Call to Stop Russian Oil

Sputnik – 02.08.2024

Croatia is not a reliable partner for oil transit, since it has raised the duty fivefold since 2022, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Friday, commenting on Brussels’ proposal to replace the Russian oil supplies stopped by Kiev with transit through Croatia.

Earlier in the day, the Financial Times reported, citing a letter from EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, that the European Commission had advised Hungary and Slovakia to abandon Russian oil and seek alternative sources in response to a complaint that Ukraine has blocked the transit of oil from Russia.

“Croatia is simply not a reliable transit country,” Szijjarto wrote on social media, adding that since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, Croatia has increased the price of oil transit fivefold compared to the average market price.

Last month, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that Ukraine had stopped the transit of Lukoil’s oil. The Slovak Economy Ministry confirmed that the country was no longer receiving oil from the Russian oil giant, which was sanctioned by Ukraine. On July 22, Szijjarto said that Hungary and Slovakia had launched consultations of the European Commission with Ukraine due to a stop in the transit of oil from Russia through the Druzhba pipeline. On Thursday, EU Commission spokesman Balazs Ujvari said that Kiev’s decision shows no energy supply risks for Hungary or Slovakia, so the Commission will not hold urgent consultations on the issue.

Dombrovskis said in the letter to Budapest and Bratislava that “diversification away from Russian fossil fuels should be actively pursued,” the report read on Thursday.

He reportedly added that at a meeting of representatives of all EU member states last week, “a significant number … questioned why Hungary and Slovakia had apparently not yet explored alternatives so far”.

August 2, 2024 Posted by | Russophobia | , , , | Leave a comment

EU member suspects Brussels of ‘energy blackmail’

RT | July 31, 2024

The European Commission (EC) may be behind the suspension of some Russian oil supplies into the EU through Ukraine, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto claimed on Tuesday. The move could be directly targeted at Hungary and Slovakia, he suggested.

Kiev halted the transit of crude oil supplied by Russian energy giant Lukoil via the Druzhba pipeline earlier this month, citing sanctions on the company. The measure has directly hit landlocked Hungary and Slovakia, depriving them of crude previously exported by Lukoil.

“Brussels remains silent despite the threat to the energy security of two EU member states and clear violation of EU-Ukraine association agreement,” Szijjarto wrote in a post on Facebook. The diplomat was referring to a deal signed in 2014, after the Western-backed Maidan coup overthrew the then-Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovich.

Szijjarto suggested that either the EC is too “weak” to protect the fundamental interests of Slovakia and Hungary, or “it was Brussels, not Kiev,” that orchestrated the move to “blackmail the two states that support peace and refuse to send weapons [to Ukraine].”

Shortly after the halt of oil supplies, Budapest and Bratislava jointly initiated consultations with the bloc and asked EU officials to help resolve the dispute. Brussels has claimed it needs time to “gather evidence and assess the legal situation.”

“The EC, and its President Ursula von der Leyen personally, must come clean immediately: did Brussels ask Kiev to ban oil supplies?” Szijjarto asked. “And if not, why has the EC taken no steps in more than a week?”

Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic – each of which is reliant on Russian energy supplies – were exempted from a bloc-wide ban on Russian oil deliveries in 2022. Slovakia and Hungary are the only EU members that have refused to back the bloc’s policy of supplying Kiev with military aid amid the conflict with Russia. Both have repeatedly called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

Kiev imposed sanctions on Lukoil in 2018, having banned the company from divesting its business in the country, as well as prohibiting trade operations and participation in the privatization or leasing of state property. Lukoil still sent crude via the southern arm of the Druzhba pipeline as the sanctions did not target these flows.

Earlier this week, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico warned that Bratislava would stop diesel exports to Ukraine if Kiev does not restart the transit of Russian oil through, stressing that Slovak shipments account for one-tenth of Ukraine’s consumption of the fuel.

On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow is unsurprised that the EU has failed to resolve the issue surrounding Russian oil supplies to its members, claiming that Brussels is using energy resources to blackmail Bratislava and Budapest.

July 31, 2024 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

INTERVIEW: Basil Valentine & Prof. Glenn Diesen – EU Childishly Boycotts Budapest

21Wire | July 26, 2024

TNT Radio guest host Basil Valentine speaks with Professor and political scientist Glenn Diesen, to discuss the EU’s unprecedented efforts to punish Hungary, one of its members, for entertaining diplomatic talks with the Russian Federation. They talk about Western diplomacy and how it is no longer about appeasement but about schooling peers and near-peer enemies on compliance. They touch upon the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban’s strong relationship with former U.S. President Trump who if elected, will favour negotiation with the Russians to bring an end to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict to avoid WWIII and a possible nuclear holocaust.

More from Glenn:
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July 29, 2024 Posted by | Militarism, Video | , , , , | Leave a comment

EU Refuses Support to Hungary, Slovakia on Russian Oil Transit Dispute With Ukraine

Sputnik – 25.07.2024

The European Union has denied its support to Hungary and Slovakia after they sought to force Ukraine to restore Russian oil transit to the bloc, the Financial Times reported citing sources familiar with the matter.

EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told the FT that Brussels would need more time to gather evidence and assess the legal situation. Eleven of the EU nations attending a meeting of trade officials on Wednesday backed his stance and none took the side of Budapest and Bratislava, diplomats told the FT.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Monday that Hungary and Slovakia had asked the European Commission to launch consultations with Ukraine after it stopped the transit of oil through the Druzhba pipeline. Szijjarto also said that Hungary would not approve the allocation of 6.5 billion euros ($7 billion) for arms sent to Ukraine through the European Peace Facility until the issue was resolved.

Ukraine’s trade agreement reportedly contains a clause that provides for the possibility of suspending oil transit. An EU diplomat was quoted as saying by FT that disruption in Russian oil supplies would have a “huge impact” on the central European nation.

Last week, Szijjarto said that Ukraine stopped the transit of Lukoil’s oil. The Slovak Economy Ministry confirmed that the country was no longer receiving oil from the Russian oil giant, which was sanctioned by Ukraine. Slovakia’s Slovnaft refinery imports Russian crude from another supplier, but the country is discussing the current situation with Ukraine.

July 25, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Russophobia | , , , , | Leave a comment

Hungary issues €6.5bn ultimatum to Ukraine

RT | July 23, 2024

Budapest will block funds the European Union has earmarked for Ukraine until Kiev resumes the transit of Russian crude oil to Hungary and Slovakia, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has said.

Ukraine stopped the flow of oil through the Druzhba pipeline last week, citing its sanctions against Russian energy giant Lukoil, thus depriving the two EU members of an estimated 30-40% of their needs.

“As long as this issue is not resolved by Ukraine, everyone should forget about the payment of the €6.5 billion of the European Peace Facility compensation for arms transfers,” Szijjarto announced on Tuesday.

“Ukraine’s decision to not allow Lukoil to transit oil supplies through Ukraine poses a fundamental threat to the security of energy supplies to Hungary and Slovakia,” Szijjarto said, describing Kiev’s move as “unacceptable and incomprehensible,” as well as incompatible with its aspirations to join the EU.

Szijjarto also reminded the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell that Hungary – along with Slovakia and Poland – came to Ukraine’s aid in early July, sending enough electricity to stabilize Kiev’s energy system. Hungary supplied 42% of Ukraine’s electricity in June, Szijjarto noted.

According to unconfirmed reports from Ukrainian local media, Ukraine stopped receiving electricity from Slovakia and Romania as of midnight on Tuesday.

Kiev has had to resort to imports after Russian air and missile strikes disabled most of its domestic generation capabilities. Moscow has described the strikes as reprisal for Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure.

Poland has already protested Hungary’s move, saying that it would deprive Warsaw of €2 billion it needs to modernize its armed forces. “This is a huge disappointment for me,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has said.

Kiev’s official explanation for embargoing oil deliveries was that Lukoil revenue could be used to support the Russian military. One Ukrainian lawmaker, however, suggested to Politico that the blockade has a secondary purpose, to pressure Hungary into changing its policy on arming Kiev.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has long refused to send Ukraine any weapons, train any Ukrainian troops, or allow the use of Hungarian territory for EU or NATO arms shipments, insisting that Kiev should sue for peace with Moscow as soon as possible.

July 23, 2024 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

Is Hungary on the verge of an energy crisis? Ukraine’s blocking of Friendship oil pipeline represents major threat

By John Cody | Remix News | July 23, 2024

Hungary is facing a potential energy crisis over Ukraine’s continued blocking of the Friendship (Druzhba) oil pipeline, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky turning up the pressure on Hungary like never before. Now, some members of the Hungarian government are openly speculating whether the move is not being pushed by Ukraine alone, but could be backed by “people in Brussels, or even the pro-war American Democrats.”

“They are punishing us for our support for peace, and now they are attacking our energy security. And it is quite possible that this was not initiated by Ukraine alone, but was helped by the people of Brussels, or even by the pro-war American Democrats. They want to destroy those who are pro-peace by all means. This is unfair, unacceptable and illegal. In any case, we will stand by our pro-peace position and defend ourselves against attacks in every possible way, with every possible means,” said Tamás Menczer, the communications director of Fidesz-KDNP, in a video post published on social media.

Currently, Hungary’s diplomats are scrambling to ensure the flow of oil resumes without interruption, but Budapest may find few in Brussels who are willing to press back against Zelensky, despite Hungary’s status as an EU and NATO member. Hungary is now pressuring the EU to take action against Ukraine, as Hungary relies on Russia for between 70 and 80 percent of its oil imports.

After Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó threatened court proceedings, Ukraine has responded that there has been no reduction in supplies, an outright lie as oil flows have been cut off for weeks.

Oleksiy Chernisov, the president of Naftogaz, Ukraine’s energy giant, stated at a business forum: “The tightening of sanctions against Lukoil in June did not affect the volume of oil transit through Ukraine.”

Ukraine’s foreign minister has also made similar claims.

“I spoke with the Ukrainian foreign minister yesterday, and he said they allow every oil transfer through, but it’s not true,” said Hungarian foreign affairs minister, Péter Szijjártó. “The commission has three days to execute our request, after which we will bring the issue to court.”

Also caught up in the energy crisis is neighboring Slovakia, which had its supplies cut as well. Russian Lukoil, which is now under sanctions from Ukraine, accounts for a third of Hungarian crude oil imports and about 45 percent of Slovakian crude oil imports.

The Hungarian government has taken a number of temporary measures to shore up its energy supply, but Szijjártó says these measures will not help in the medium term.

Last year, Szijjártó warned about plans leaked by the Washington Post detailing how the Ukrainian government had planned to blow up the Druzhba pipeline in the past, specifically to sink the Hungarian economy.

July 23, 2024 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Member states consult EU over ‘hostile’ Ukrainian move

RT | July 22, 2024

Hungary and Slovakia have requested that the European Commission intervene over Ukraine’s decision last week to block the pipeline transit of Russian crude oil.

While the EU has sanctioned imports of Russian crude to Germany and Poland, Slovakia and Hungary have received exemptions. Last week, however, Ukraine cut off the flow of oil, citing its own sanctions against Russian energy giant Lukoil.

“I spoke with the Ukrainian foreign minister yesterday; he said they allow every oil transfer through, but it’s not true,” Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said in Brussels on Monday.

Szijjarto described Kiev’s actions as “hostile,” especially since Ukraine imports electricity from Hungary. He added that Budapest and Bratislava have requested consultations with Brussels on the matter. Slovakian Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar has confirmed this.

“The commission has three days to carry out our request, after which we will bring the issue to court,” said Szijjarto. If Kiev refuses to resume oil transit, the EU will be justified in suspending certain clauses of Ukraine’s association agreement, he added.

The EU formally approved the start of membership negotiations with Ukraine last month, as a symbolic message of support to Kiev in its conflict with Moscow.

On Saturday, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico called his Ukrainian counterpart Denis Shmigal to complain about the “senseless” sanctions that may leave Bratislava 40% short of the oil it needs. Moreover, the shortages could force Slovnaft to stop deliveries to Ukraine, which account for 10% of Kiev’s oil consumption.

“Slovakia does not intend to be a hostage to Ukrainian-Russian relations,” Fico said.

Ukraine imposed sanctions on Lukoil on June 24, including the freezing of assets, limiting trade operations, and “partial or complete cessation of resource transit.” The oil stopped flowing on July 17, according to Hungary’s MOL, which also owns Slovnaft.

Officially, Kiev seeks to deprive Moscow of oil revenue that could be used to pay for the Russian military, even though Ukraine itself is getting a cut from transit fees. Ukrainian lawmaker Inna Sovsun has suggested to Politico that the embargo has a secondary purpose: to pressure Hungary.

“We have really tried all the diplomatic solutions, and they never worked,” said Sovsun. “So it seems like we have to find some other approaches in how to talk to them.”

Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government has vocally opposed the EU policy of sending money and weapons to Ukraine and vowed to block its membership in the bloc as well as NATO.

July 22, 2024 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

Ukraine ‘Shot Itself in the Foot’ by Banning Transit of Lukoil Crude to Hungary and Slovakia

By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 20.07.2024

Hungary and Slovakia stopped receiving oil from Russian oil giant Lukoil via the Soviet-built Druzhba (‘Friendship’) pipeline which runs through northwestern Ukraine after Kiev imposed a transit ban. Financial analyst Paul Goncharoff says the move is both counterproductive and shortsighted, but that hasn’t stopped Ukraine’s authorities before.

Officials in Budapest and Bratislava confirmed this week that the delivery of oil supplies purchased from Lukoil through the Druzhba oil pipeline network had dried up.
Slovakian oil transporter Transpetrol said non-Lukoil Russian deliveries appear unaffected so far.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Budapest is receiving oil via the TurkStream pipeline, running from Russia through the Black Sea to southeastern Europe, but that supplies via Druzhba had been stopped “due to a new legal situation” imposed by Kiev.

“We are now working on a solution that would allow oil transit to restart as Russian oil is very important for our energy security,” Szijjarto said Tuesday.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that Moscow doubts whether dialogue with the Ukrainian companies responsible for oil transit on this issue is possible.

“This sort of decision was made not at the technical, but the political level. We don’t have any dialogue here,” he said.

Druzhba is one of the longest and largest oil pipeline networks in the world, with a capacity to ship about 66.5 million tons of oil annually. The network branches off in southern Belarus into a northern route running through Poland to eastern Germany, and a southern route, which winds through southwestern Ukraine to the Hungarian and Slovakian borders.

Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic negotiated with Brussels in late 2023 to allow them to maintain their pipeline-based imports of Russian oil, citing a lack of access to sea-based deliveries, and lack of opportunities to receive substantial amounts of oil from other sources.

The three countries collectively imported about 15 million tons of Russia divided roughly evenly between them in 2022, and dropped purchases modestly (between 2 and 10 percent) in 2023, according to Russian oil transport giant Transneft.

Shipments of Russian oil to Poland and further west to Germany via Druzhba’s northern branch were halted by Warsaw in early 2023.

Last month, Ukraine formally banned the transit of crude produced by Lukoil – Russia’s second-largest oil company, through the section of Druzhba running through Ukraine.

The move signals another short-sighted escalation by Ukraine’s pro-Western elite which will ultimately harm ordinary Ukrainians in the long run, says veteran financial analyst Paul Goncharoff.

“Whether Ukraine can afford to further escalate the situation surrounding the movement of energy resources is a moot point. Escalation on all fronts has passed all reasonable limits, politically, economically and militarily. They cannot afford it economically [nor] politically as they have now estranged both Slovakia and Hungary, [but will continue to escalate], regardless of cost, as their marching orders from Washington along with the servile echoes of Brussels and their insistence to ‘demonstrate resolve’” dictate, Goncharoff told Sputnik.

“The real consequences should become very clear in 3-4 months as winter descends on Ukraine, and any energy goodwill there may still be in countries neighboring Ukraine will be scarce to nonexistent,” the observer expects.

At this stage, Goncharoff says, Russian oil exporters not affiliated with Lukoil can still send oil through the Druzhba pipeline, but “how long this possibility will continue is anyone’s guess.”

“In discussions I have had with persons closely involved in this trade, there are swap workarounds being looked at in order not to deprive Slovakia or Hungary from needed and contracted resources. Unfortunately, the political reality is such that it is likely any workarounds will raise a hue and cry from the West, and they will try to close the workarounds off as well, if for no other reason but to be politically correct,” the market analyst said.

Ultimately, the old saying “shooting oneself in the foot” is an apt description for Kiev, Brussels and Washington’s policy today, “while the world looks on, shaking its collective head in wonder,” Goncharoff concluded.

Russian oil and gas flows to Europe have dropped dramatically following the escalation of the conflict in the Donbass into a full-fledged proxy war between Russia and NATO. The decline in Russian energy flows west prompted Moscow to reorient part of its energy trade to its BRICS partners (particularly China and India) and pushed EU countries and the UK to kick off a global scramble to secure the energy needed to power their economies.

The West’s attempts to “punish” Russia by cutting off energy purchases have so far had a boomerang effect, raising prices and undermining Europe’s global industrial competitiveness against China and the United States. Traditional European industrial powerhouse Germany has been hit particularly hard, facing the outflow of major manufacturers looking for greener pastures, and cheaper energy costs, in countries abroad.

July 20, 2024 Posted by | Economics | , , , | Leave a comment

Orban delivers Ukraine peace proposals to EU – adviser

RT | July 15, 2024

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has sent proposals to EU leaders on ways to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, newspaper Magyar Nemzet reported on Monday, citing the PM’s political adviser Balazs Orban. The proposals are said to be based on the results of the premier’s controversial peace mission earlier this month, during which he visited Ukraine, Russia, and China.

Orban provided EU leaders with a detailed account of his visits, and delivered Budapest’s action plan to their desks, Balazs Orban (no relation) told the newspaper.

The adviser described Budapest’s proposals as being “based on a realistic assessment of the situation” and on setting “realistic goals,” without elaborating further.

Balazs Orban claimed that there are “pro-war” political forces in the EU, and that the bloc is following the lead of the current US administration, which, he said, wants the conflict to continue.

”If Europe wants peace and wants to have a decisive say in the settlement of the war [in Ukraine] and the end of the bloodshed, then the change of course must be worked out and implemented now,” the adviser said.

Hungary is one of the few member states to criticize the bloc’s stance on the conflict. Budapest has refused to go along with Brussels and send weapons to Kiev. It has also stalled financial aid to Ukraine. Viktor Orban’s recent visit to Moscow was condemned by senior EU figures, with Brussels seeking to distance itself from Orban’s efforts.

According to the prime minister’s adviser, external mediators, such as China and Türkiye, could be vital to helping negotiate peace.

Hungary plans to use the six months of its rotating presidency of the, which began in July, to create conditions for peace talks. “If the union does not act now, it may not be able to act later,” Balazs Orban warned.

During his visit to Kiev, the Hungarian leader called on Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky to agree to a ceasefire with Russia, a proposal the latter rejected.

President Putin has repeatedly insisted that the hostilities can only end if Ukraine fulfills several of Russia’s demands – including legally binding guarantees that Kiev will not seek NATO membership, and the withdrawal of troops from the whole of Donbass, as well as the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.

Kiev, along with its Western backers, have rejected the proposal, calling it an unacceptable ultimatum.

July 15, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , | Leave a comment

Hungary to fight ‘pro-war propaganda’ – official

RT | July 8, 2024

Hungary is set to introduce a new “anti-war action plan” which will include measures aimed at countering “war propaganda,” Gergely Gulyas, the head of the Hungarian Prime Minister’s Office, announced at a press conference on Monday.

Under the plan, any political forces or media outlets accused of promoting belligerent policies would be required to reveal their funding sources. The goal is “full transparency,” Gulyas said. The measure is primarily aimed at the media, the nation’s news outlets reported, noting that political parties in Hungary are already legally barred from receiving funds from abroad.

The government would also reserve the right to block any foreign funding and send the money back to whoever provided it, if it is used to bankroll “war propaganda,” Gulyas said.

The official provided few details as to how the government would decide what exactly constitutes “war propaganda.” He said that the Justice Ministry would develop a mechanism to determine whether a media outlet is involved in the practice.

When asked if “foreign funding” included money coming from within the EU, Gulyas said that the measure would be focused on financing coming from outside the bloc. He argued, however, that the EU itself is dominated by “war propaganda” focused on the ongoing conflict between Kiev and Moscow.

Gulyas said Budapest is facing “political, legal and financial blackmail” which aims to force it to join the ranks of Kiev’s Western war backers, but that it has so far resisted the pressure. “There is no blackmail that [can force] Hungary to change its conviction that every political step must serve the end of war,” he said.

His words came as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban embarked on what he called a peace mission that included visits to Kiev and Moscow within the span of several days. In the Ukrainian capital, he called for a ceasefire, describing it as a first step towards conflict resolution. The idea was rejected by Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky.

Orban called his Moscow trip the first step to restoring dialogue. The move drew criticism from the EU, which said the Hungarian prime minister, whose nation currently holds the bloc’s rotating presidency, had no mandate to speak on behalf of Brussels.

On Monday, Gulyas addressed the issue by saying that peace cannot be achieved without direct dialogue with all the warring parties. “Hungary would like to be in contact with any country that can contribute to peace,” he added.

July 8, 2024 Posted by | Mainstream Media, Warmongering, Russophobia | , | Leave a comment

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