Revealed: Israel’s hidden history of attacks on Iran
By Robert Inlakesh | MintPress News | April 17, 2024
Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel was framed in the West as a reckless attempt to spark a major regional war, but in reality, Israel has been attacking Iran for decades.
As is routinely the case with Western-backed wars, the corporate media’s timeline begins at the moment that suits their narrative. We have seen this play out recently, with the attempt to rob the Gaza war of all contexts before October 7, 2023. Similarly, when it comes to Israel’s conflict with Iran, the two have been embroiled in what is referred to as a “shadow war,” the details of which are pretty shocking.
While the international media’s attention was riveted on Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel, drawing great focus to some 300 drones and missiles used in the attack, no major deal was made of Israel’s strike on April 1 against the consular segment of Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria, that killed a dozen people, including seven Iranian officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In this unprecedented act of aggression against Iranian soil, breaking international diplomatic norms, the Israelis were shielded by the U.S. government at the United Nations Security Council, blocking any condemnation of this act.
Despite an admission from British Foreign Secretary David Cameron that had the UK embassy been attacked similarly, they too would retaliate, the double-standard argument that Iran shouldn’t respond continues to dominate the airways.
This is as Iran’s IRGC has received condemnation for seizing a container ship in the Persian Gulf associated with the Zodiac Maritime shipping company of Israel billionaire Eyal Ofer and his family. In 2021, the Mercer Street oil tanker, which Zodiac Maritime also operated, was struck by Iranian drones, prompting similar condemnation. Yet, little was to be said regarding the Israeli-owned company’s role in collaborating with the Israeli military and intelligence establishment to ferry arms and operatives around the region and carry out assassinations or reconnaissance missions.
However, the Israel-Iran “Shadow War” did not begin with recent events. Israel has been carrying out brutal assassinations of civilian scientists on Iranian soil since 2010 while also carrying out acts of espionage that have endangered innocent civilians in the country.
As early as in the years 2010, 2011 and 2012, Israeli Mossad agents have been planting viruses designed to cause malfunctions in Iranian oil and nuclear power facilities. Another kind of provocative action occurred in 2018, when it was reported that an Israeli Mossad team had raided an archive facility in Tehran, stealing documents that pertained to its nuclear power program.
In 2020, the New York Times and Washington Post reported that Israel planted bombs inside Iran’s Natanz Nuclear facility, which almost caused an environmental and humanitarian catastrophe. Later that year, the Israeli Mossad assassinated Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, in Tehran. Then, in April of 2021, another explosion occurred at the Natanz facility, which the New York Times reported was Israel’s doing.
The Israelis have also trained members of the MEK terrorist group to carry out attacks on civilian targets inside Iran. The list of Mossad-linked cells that have been arrested by the Iranian authorities or carried out acts of espionage and sabotage is simply too numerous to cover at length. Early last year, U.S. officials even told Reuters that a suicide drone attack targeting a factory in the city of Isfahan was an Israeli attack.
More recently, in late December, Israel launched airstrikes on Damascus and assassinated IRGC official Seyed Razi Mousavi. And in January, Israel launched airstrikes in Damascus, murdering five Iranian military personnel members and Syrian citizens. Then, in early February, Israel was accused of blowing up gas pipelines in Iran. None of these actions, which would likely illicit a response by most nations, provoked Iran to launch a direct strike on Israel.
In addition to all of this, Israel has been the world’s top cheerleader for the West’s crushing sanctions that have significantly impacted Iran’s civilian population, specifically access to lifesaving medical supplies. AIPAC, the powerful Israeli Lobby group in the United States, worked hard to prevent the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal from passing, then pushed for the Trump administration to unilaterally withdraw before pressuring the Biden administration to refrain from reviving the deal despite this being a campaign promise. Israel even played a role in the Trump administration’s assassination of Iran’s top general tasked with battling ISIS, Qassem Soleimani.
Yet, despite Israel’s long history of documented attacks against Iran and around 30 years of false predictions as to when Iran is supposedly going to develop a nuclear weapon, which is the premise for Western sanctions, the corporate media is still trying to sell the public on the lie that Israel is an innocent victim and that there was no justifiable reason for Iran to retaliate.
How Iran’s ‘Operation True Promise’ revealed Jordan’s unholy alliance with Israeli regime
By Humaira Ahad | Press TV | April 21, 2024
Following Iran’s retaliatory military operation against Israel last Saturday, the so-called “defensive military alliance” formed by the Zionist regime comprised an odd member.
Apart from the regular Western allies of the Tel Aviv regime, including the United States, Britain, and France, Jordan was also part of this ‘unholy alliance”.
As per reports, Jordan opened its airspace to the Israeli regime and its Western allies to down some of the Iranian drones at the risk of putting its own people in harm’s way.
Being equipped with only about 60 older F-16 and F-5 aircraft, the Hashemite Kingdom lacks the capacity to independently intercept Iranian drones and missiles headed toward the occupied lands.
An Israeli media channel reported that Israeli fighter jets as well as French air defenses intercepted drones launched by Iran in the airspace of Jordan, drawing widespread anger and outrage.
Following the operation, which came in response to the Israeli attack on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Syria, the Jordanian government issued a statement, vaguely admitting its role.
“Some unidentified flying objects that entered our airspace last night were dealt with and intercepted to prevent endangering the safety of our citizens and inhabited areas,” read the statement.
Jordan’s active involvement in intercepting some Iranian drones enraged people around the world who saw it as an act of betrayal especially at a time when Israel has killed thousands of Palestinians in Gaza.
With more than 60 percent of Jordan’s population being of Palestinian descent, the Kingdom’s military cooperation with Israel is not only considered treacherous but cowardly.
Since the start of Israel’s genocidal onslaught on Gaza, thousands of people have been protesting regularly outside the Israeli embassy in Amman, calling for a reversal of the 1994 Israel-Jordan treaty.
The kingdom has often resorted to the heavy use of force, arresting the protesters and exhibiting disdain for its commitments as an Arab-Muslim nation towards the Palestinian cause.
Jordan’s relations with Israel
Jordan’s opposition to Palestinian resistance became evident in 1970 when the Arab country massacred thousands of Palestinians. The tragic event called “Black September” was aimed at expelling the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) from Jordan.
The expulsion was backed by then-King Hussein bin Talal, who reportedly received support from the Zionist regime and its Western backers.
In 1994, Jordan and Israel signed the Israel–Jordan peace treaty. Thus, Amman became the second Arab country after Egypt to recognize the occupying regime. Since then, the two sides have shared close diplomatic relations with Jordan practically consigning the Palestinian cause into oblivion.
On his visit to Jordan in 2016, former Israeli President Reuven Rivlin spoke at the country’s Independence Day reception. He praised the close ties between Amman and Tel Aviv stating.
“Israel is proud to be Jordan’s partner and to stand at Jordan’s side…over the last year, your kingdom has played a critical role in dealing with the violence in Jerusalem which is holy to all of us.”
At an event in 2022, Jordan and Israel signed a memorandum of understanding on water and energy.
In January this year, Jordan’s Prime Minister Bisher al Khasawaneh said that peace with Israel remained a strategic choice for the kingdom, in complete disregard for Palestinians massacred in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s secret visits to Jordan
After the establishment of relations with the Zionist regime in 1994, most of the dealings between the two sides have been secretive and away from the media limelight.
In January 2023, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a surprise visit to Jordan to meet King Abdullah II. It was Netanyahu’s first known visit to Amman since a secret trip in 2018.
Amid attempts by then-US President Donald Trump to broker a deal for the infamous Abraham Accords, Netanyahu paid a secretive visit to Jordan in 2018.
He was accompanied by the then Mossad Director Yossi Cohen, military secretary Eliezer Toledano and other members of his cabinet.
Netanyahu participated in a secret summit in Aqaba in 2016. The meeting that was arranged by then-US Secretary of State John Kerry included King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi.
Following the Jerusalem intifada, the Hashemite King Abdullah met Netanyahu in November 2014 in Jordan.
Western military bases in Jordan
Western countries that helped the Israeli regime intercept some Iranian drones during ‘Operation True Promise’ are believed to have used military bases in Jordan.
US troops are stationed at the Tower 22 military base in northeastern Jordan, near the Syrian border, supporting Israel’s military operations.
The United States has at least 3000 military personnel stationed in the West Asian kingdom.
In 2022, America announced the headquarters of its 332nd Air Expeditionary Wing’s air combat command as Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in the eastern city of Azraq, located near the border of Iraq and Syria.
As per a 2023 report by the US Congress, an agreement between the two sides allows US forces, vehicles and aircraft to enter and move around Jordan freely.
UK and France also have a significant presence inside Jordan. Military personnel from the two countries are present at King Faisal Air Base in Al-Jafr and the Humaymah base near Aqaba.
French troops at King Faisal Air Base, known as Al-Ruwaished Base, which is close to Al-Tanf have been involved in espionage activities in Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. The airport of the military base is believed to be used by both Israeli and US drones.
In December 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron paid a visit to French forces stationed at the Al-Ruwaished base. The Jordanian base is perceived to protect the occupying regime.
Jordan-Israel military cooperation
Jordanian Air Force pilots trained with the Israeli military in 2015 at a US-hosted air force exercise.
The cooperation was confirmed by then-Israeli war minister Moshe Ya’alon. A Jordanian pilot Majdi al-Samdi who refused to be a part of the joint military exercise was discharged from the Hashemite Kingdom’s air force.
In 2016, a delegation of almost a dozen Jordanian generals went on a three-day visit to the occupied territories to participate in an international conference with the Israeli military.
Apart from allowing the US to use its territory for the transportation of heavy military equipment to Israel, Jordan has been accepting arms from the child-killing regime.
Retired US-supplied Cobra combat helicopters were given to the kingdom by Israel in 2015. The handover was approved and facilitated by the United States.
Global anger against Jordan
Muslims around the world, including Jordanians, have expressed their disgust at the hypocrisy of Amman that on the one hand condemns Israel’s military aggression on Gaza and calls for a ceasefire and on the other hand, helps the regime against an unprecedented Iranian military operation.
Dima Khatib, the managing director of Aljazeera’s online platform AJ+, labeled the interceptions in the Jordanian airspace “a shocking scene”.
“Sister countries are responding, not to the attack of Israeli planes, drones and missiles on Palestine, but to an attack on Israel… There are Arab citizens who pull the trigger to protect Israel and watch when the Palestinians are bombed,” he wrote on social media.
Daniella Modos, UK-based campaigner quoted the Middle East Eye’s editor-in-chief David Hearst as saying that while Jordanians cheered the Iranian attack, the Jordanian government stood with Israel.
“While the population of Jordan cheered the Iranian missiles onto their targets in Israel, the Jordanian army shot them down on Israel’s behalf. Israel may be celebrating the fact they have real allies, but by doing so they are fatally undermining their friends’ legitimacy,” Modos wrote.
Masoud Khodabandeh, former director of Middle East Strategy Consultants and a freelance consultant, took to X to denounce Jordan’s role in helping the regime to intercept some Iranian missiles.
Referring to King Abdullah, Khodabandeh wrote, “Guess how many Israeli missiles going toward Palestinian women and children he downed during 6 months of Gaza Genocide?”
Marwa Osman, a Lebanon-based journalist and Press TV show host, quoted an Israeli newspaper as saying that the regime is set to approve a water agreement in exchange for Amman’s help.
“The Israeli YediothAhronoth newspaper: After the great assistance provided by Jordan in intercepting the Iranian attack on Israel: Energy Minister Eli Cohen is expected to approve Jordan’s request to extend the water agreement for another year,” Osman wrote.
“Think about it… Jordanians will use the water for Wudu before prayers… for a whole year… in return for “protecting Israel”. And it is STOLEN PALESTINIAN WATER! Wow.”
Nerdeen Kiswani, a Palestinian activist based in New York, pointed to the split between the monarchy and the Jordanian people concerning relations with the apartheid regime.
“So Jordan is killing its OWN people to defend Israel… Not surprising given that Jordan does not represent its people at all when it comes to normalization with the Zionists,” she wrote.
Iran’s new deterrence equation with ‘Israel’ was decades in the making
By Robert Inlakesh | Al Mayadeen | April 20, 2024
On April 13, the Islamic Republic of Iran changed the deterrence equation with the Zionist entity by striking it directly. While the success of this operation can be judged, in the short term, through the monitoring of the US and Israeli responses, it is important to understand that Iran’s retaliatory operation was in fact the culmination of decades of Israeli attacks on its territory and citizens.
Immediately after Iran’s retaliatory operation, dubbed True Promise, was concluded, the Western and Israeli establishments began working hard to concoct their own narrative as to what occurred. Interestingly, they couldn’t quite stick to a singular script and adopted two contradictory takes: The first was to pretend that the Israelis were the victim and that Iran’s attack was much larger in scope than expected; hence demonstrating Tehran’s ‘evil’ intent. The second was to argue that the Israelis, along with their UK, US, French, and Jordanian air defense alliance, pulled off one of the most successful defensive military campaigns in history and that Iran did basically no damage.
The two narratives make the Israelis both the victim and the hero of the story. Yet, they greatly contradict each other by arguing both that nothing happened and that the Iranian retaliation went way beyond what is allegedly acceptable. What these two stories also do is allow us the ability to debunk both independently and tell the real story behind what occurred.
Debunking Iran’s so-called ‘evil intent’
As is typical for the Western corporate media, they conveniently begin every story on the day that fits their desired framework, pushing the same propaganda narratives as their leadership. In this instance, they take the same approach as was adopted on October 7, 2023, when it came to the battles between the Palestinian Resistance and the occupying entity. We were all supposed to believe two lines of argument, which, if violated, would be treated as treasonous and immoral: The first was that all history prior to October 7 was invalid and could not explain or justify the military operation of Hamas. The second was to pretend that Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was a “terrorist” attack with no military goals.
Not only was the consular segment of Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria, blown up by Israeli strikes, in what constituted an egregious violation of international law, diplomatic norms, and both Iranian and Syrian sovereignty, but this was not the first time. On the April 1 consulate attack, 7 members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed, along with Syrian and Lebanese nationals. When asked on Sky News what the UK would have done in the event that one of its consulates were attacked, British Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, admitted that London would have too responded harshly, contradicting his own narrative that was espoused moments prior.
The Iran-Israeli struggle didn’t originate with this strike on the consulate, which the US and its allies prevented a condemnation for in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). It’s been ongoing for decades. While Iran has periodically carried out retaliatory and defensive operations, in the Gulf and northern Iraq, against Israeli targets, no direct action was ever taken against targets inside occupied Palestine.
When looking critically at what is often called the Iran-Israeli “shadow war”, we will find that Tehran has repeatedly shown extreme levels of restraint. Since 2010, the Israeli regime has been carrying out direct action inside Iranian territory, beginning with its bloody assassinations of civilian nuclear scientists. These assassinations have utilized Mossad agents to gun down scientists in the streets and plant bombs in civilian areas. The Zionists have also repeatedly used members of terrorist organizations, such as the Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO), training and recruiting them to murder civilians inside Iranian territory.
Acts of sabotage, espionage, and even a raid on a facility in Tehran, which resulted in the theft of documents pertaining to Iran’s peaceful nuclear program, were all carried out under the supervision of the Mossad. In 2020, The New York Times and The Washington Post both reported that the Israelis were behind the planting of a bomb at the Natanz Nuclear Facility. It was later also revealed through NYT that the Israelis had been responsible for the assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, in Tehran on November 27 of that same year. Then, the following year, the Israelis were again accused of another explosion that occurred at the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
In addition to this, in early 2023, it was revealed that the Israelis were behind an attack, using suicide drones, which attempted to strike a factory in the Iranian city of Isfahan. Keeping all of this in mind, the Israelis have been one of the biggest proponents of the West’s sanctions against Iran, which have sought to collectively punish the Iranian civilian population. AIPAC and specifically Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, mounted a huge effort to prevent the 2015 Nuclear Deal, undermining its implementation, before pushing the Trump administration to unilaterally withdraw and then working to ensure that the current American President, Joe Biden, would not fulfill his campaign promise to revive it. “Tel Aviv” was even allegedly involved in the US Trump administration’s assassination of Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani, of the IRGC’s Quds Force in 2020.
Countless strikes that have assassinated Iranian citizens inside Syria have been carried out by the Zionist regime throughout the years, none of which have ever received a single condemnation from any Western nation. More recently, in late December the Israeli regime assassinated IRGC official, Seyed Razi Mousavi, in airstrikes conducted against his location in Damascus. In this case, the IRGC launched a retaliatory series of strikes against Mossad facilities in northern Iraq and fired ballistic missiles into Syria’s Idlib province, working to warn the Zionists not to commit further attacks.
Despite this clear warning, the Zionist entity decided in January to strike Damascus again and murdered 5 IRGC members, along with Syrian civilians and soldiers. Then, in February, the Zionists were reportedly behind explosions that partially destroyed gas pipelines in Iran. At this point, no direct strikes against the Zionists occurred, despite the long list of provocations.
It was only on April 1, after the consulate attack, that the Iranians decided that enough was enough and that they would change the equation once and for all, in order to prevent the Israelis from committing their heinous crimes against Iran at will.
Debunking the West’s air defense ‘victory’
The Islamic Republic of Iran allegedly gave a 72-hour notice to neighboring and allied nations, in addition to immediately arguing its right to respond, in the way it did, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN charter; also making all parties aware that the response would be limited.
When the attack began, the Iranians launched a batch of older model drones, which were slow and easy to identify. This gave ample time to the broad coalition of Israeli allies, including the US, UK, France, and Jordan, to use their fighter jets and air defense capabilities throughout the region, to combat the incoming attack. All flights were grounded, and the Zionists were given the time to move assets and prepare, while the only targets in the sky were Iranian drones and missiles for an incident that lasted 5 hours in total.
If we look at this with an open mind and simply observe the obvious, what happened was no achievement at all to the Israelis, but rather, an absolute embarrassment. The Iranians used old munitions and models of their drones, gave the enemy hours to shoot down the slow-moving targets across Iraq, Jordan, and then finally occupied Palestine. In an operation that cost Tehran in the tens of millions, the Israelis were forced to spend upward of a billion dollars in their attempt to combat the volley of drones and missiles.
Despite the broad Western-Arab-Zionist coalition having hours to combat the attack, in addition to days to set up and prepare, Iran hit its intended military targets with ballistic missiles and those missiles were not even its newest models. While the Zionists claim to have shot down “99%” of the incoming missiles and drones, we have now received the admission that over a dozen missiles have hit their targets, which debunks this statistic.
On the other hand, many of the munitions fired by the Islamic Republic managed to reach the skies of occupied Palestine and set off nearly 800 sirens across the territory, instilling fear in the settler population and causing them to flee populated areas to bunkers. In an attack that drew the full concentration of the Zionist regime and its allies, depleting large reserves of interceptor missiles, the allies of Iran were much more reserved than had been expected. It was anticipated by many that the likes of Hezbollah, the Palestinian Resistance, Yemen’s Ansar Allah, and the Iraqi Resistance would launch large volleys of projectiles to distract the air defenses, yet the missiles, rockets, and drones fired from these fronts ranged from nothing – in the case of Gaza – to limited fire at best. What the limited aid of the regional resistance forces demonstrated was that they were not even needed to enable older-model Iranian missiles to hit their targets.
Despite this obviously being the case and that Tehran did not seek to strike anything beyond military targets, the Israelis and their Western allies managed to concoct a laughable narrative of triumph. As this was the first time the Iranian military had ever launched a direct attack against the Zionist regime, it also managed to test the Israeli capacity to fend off strikes from Iran; under the most favorable circumstances possible.
While the Western corporate media are now promoting the idea of an amazing victory for their air defense capabilities, it is obvious that these rather pathetic distortions of the truth are rooted in upholding the image of the weapons systems used and saving face after receiving a slap from Iran. The military-industrial complex cannot be ignored in analyzing the Western media narrative here, because there is a direct interest in upholding the image of their weapons being the most effective on earth. This is in order to boost, or, at least maintain sales.
An admission of the truth would be a major blow to the military-industrial complex in the West and would also instill even greater fear in the Israeli population. The Zionist regime cannot admit how vulnerable it is in the face of a large regional confrontation with the Islamic Republic and so it has worked to deceive its people, using this incident as a means of attempting to prove defensive competence; something that was greatly undermined on October 7 by the Palestinian resistance.
The Israelis were neither the victims nor were they the victors, they made a stupid mistake and found themselves faced with a difficult situation, prompting their Western allies to urge them not to immediately strike Iran directly. Although the coming weeks and months will provide us with the ability to properly analyze all the effects of Iran’s retaliatory operation, in the meantime, we can assess that a totally new equation has been reached and the governments of the collective West are not happy about it.
Iran’s air defenses down drones over Isfahan, Tabriz
Al Mayadeen | April 19, 2024
No external aggression on Iran occurred after Friday midnight, Iranian sources informed on the matter told Al Mayadeen.
Following circulating news on Western-based media outlets, regarding a supposed Israeli attack on Iran, sources told Al Mayadeen that such an event did not occur. Instead, Iranian air defenses repelled a relatively small drone attack in Tabriz and Isfahan, which were likely launched domestically.
What is being circulated about an Israeli attack on Iran are lies and are part of a misinformation war, according to our sources.
Iranian sources also added that complicit United States media outlets are waging a proxy war of disinformation on behalf of the Israeli occupation.
This comes after Iran’s Space Agency confirmed that several drones, of unspecified origin, were downed over Iranian airspace. The agency said that no missile attack on Iran occurred on Friday.
The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) said that short-range and medium-range Iranian air defense batteries repelled the attack.
Earlier, Iran’s Mehr News Agency, citing the Director General of the Iran Airports and Air Navigation Company, said that all air traffic was suspended in Isfahan, Shiraz, and Tehran. Iranian media outlets reported that air defense systems were activated in Isfahan, as explosions of an unknown cause were heard.
Al Mayadeen’s correspondent, citing the spokesperson of the Iranian Space Agency, said that air defense batteries responded to three targets over Isfahan. He added that reports indicate that air defenses responded to threats in Qahjavarestan, northeast of Isfahan, as no aerial objects hit ground targets.
Our correspondent stressed that all of the explosions heard on Friday were a result of air defense interceptions.
The Islamic Republic News Agency reports that air defenses were activated in Tabriz, in northern Iran, resulting in a series of explosions. The agency added that no aerial objects hit ground targets in Tabriz and that all loud sounds were a result of interceptors exploding over Tabriz’s sky.
From October 7 to April 13: the era of Liberation has begun
By Sayed Hasan | Resistance News | April 18, 2024
While it would be difficult to overestimate the importance of the operation launched by Hamas and the factions of the Palestinian Resistance on October 7, a feat that forever annihilated the prestige of the Israeli army, the strikes launched by Iran on the night of 13 to 14 April are truly historic, and perhaps even more significant. For the first time, the backbone and only State of the Axis of Resistance targeted Israel directly from its territory, launching the largest missile attack ever recorded against Israel, and the largest drone attack in history. We have entered a whole new phase in the Arab-Israeli and Persian-Israeli conflict, and this is the final one, as all the taboos have now been broken and new equations have been established.
Here are the main achievements of this unprecedented attack:
- Israel’s deterrence capacity no longer exists: since October 7, Hamas, Hezbollah, AnsarAllah and the Iraqi Resistance had shattered it, but these were Resistance movements, not a State with much more to lose; and this direct action by Iran is all the more significant as Israel has been threatening to bomb Iran for decades without ever daring to do so, while the Islamic Republic very quickly carried out its threats;
- Iran launched its strike despite US and Western threats, demonstrating unparalleled courage and a readiness to enter into a regional war, going as far as directly threatening the United States and its Arab vassals in the region with direct strikes in the event of complicity with any kind of reaction from Israel: this audacity foiled the bluff of the Biden administration, which officially declared that it would not support an Israeli response from which it disassociated itself in advance;
- Iran’s military prowess was clearly demonstrated: despite the fact that this attack was known in advance, and that the capabilities, aviation and/or anti-missile defenses of no less than 5 powers were directly assisting Israel (the United States, Great Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, and perhaps even Egypt), Israel’s defense systems were saturated, hundreds of sirens sounded from north to south for hours and ten to twenty direct hits were recorded;
- Iran also demonstrated its moral superiority: it strictly applied Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which authorizes the use of force in self-defense, targeted only military targets (three air bases that were destroyed according to Iran, and damaged according to Israel), and gave advance warning of its strike, which enabled the neighboring countries to close their airspace, thus protecting the civilian airliners that Israel had been endangering for days by massively jamming GPS signals throughout the region;
- finally, as Marwa Osman put it, the failure of Israel’s 5 layers of defense was compensated for by a 6th layer of media defense, with journalists repeating that Israel and its allies were able to intercept 99% of the projectiles: in view of the direct impacts recorded, this would mean that Iran fired 1,000 to 2,000 drones and missiles, whereas all the data puts the figure below 500; the aim of this deceit was obviously to save Israel’s face and enable it to claim an illusory victory.
“Those who make threats should have realized that military threats or attacks against Iran – in the sense of hit-and-run attacks – are no longer possible. Those who invade us will have to suffer from the devastating consequences of their actions”, said Sayed Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, back in 2007. While this statement has been mocked many times, particularly in view of the numerous Israeli attacks on Iranian bases in Syria that have cost the lives of many members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with relative impunity, no one today doubts the seriousness of this assertion: when its territory is hit, as was the case with the blatant Israeli strike against its consulate in Damascus on April 1st, the aggressor is hit directly. And from now on, as Hossein Salami, the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, has stated, any open attack against Iranian interests will be met with the same retribution: “We have established a new equation with the Zionist entity, responding directly from Iranian territory to any aggression on its part against Iranian interests, property, personalities and citizens in any part of the world. We have opened a new chapter in the confrontation with the enemy”. This is a truly tectonic shift in the equations of power and deterrence.
Those who play down the importance of the Iranian attack ignore its long-term political and strategic significance, which is in line with Iran’s vision, shared by the entire Axis of Resistance, of the form, scale and timing of the struggle against Israel. As Fadi Quran points out,
“the scale of Iran’s attack, the diversity of locations it targeted, and weapons it used, forced Israel to uncover the majority of anti-missile technologies the US and it have across the region. The Iranians did not use any weapons Israel didn’t know it had, it just used a lot of them. But the Iranians likely now have almost a full map of what Israel’s missile defence system looks like, as well as where in Jordan and the Gulf the US has installations. It also knows how long it takes to prepare them, how Israeli society responds… etc This is a huge strategic cost to Israel, while Arab regimes now are being blasted by their peoples, particularly the Jordanian monarchy, for not doing anything to protect Gazans but then going all out to protect Israel. Crucially, Iran can now reverse engineer all the intel gathered from this attack to make a much more deadly one credible. While the US and Israel will have to re-design away from their current model which has been compromised. Its success in stopping this choreographed attack is thus still very costly.”
While Israel proved barely capable of defending itself (at an exorbitant cost of two billion dollars) against an attack that was limited in scope and lacked the element of surprise, and cost Iran a measly 35 million, there is no longer any doubt in anyone’s mind that in the event of a regional war, Israel’s defense capabilities would quickly be saturated, leaving its territory devastated and its population decimated. The Israeli population is now clearly aware of this, and the de-population process that has already cost the occupying entity hundreds of thousands of nationals since October 7 is only set to increase.
For their part, the Palestinian people, abandoned by the whole world, and the Arab regimes in particular, were able to enjoy a brief respite, Gaza having experienced its first hours of calm since October 7 during this unforgettable night. The Palestinians were able to let their joy burst forth when they saw the epic images of the Iranian missiles flying over the Knesset and the Al-Aqsa mosque before striking the heart of the Zionist entity. Like the psychological shock of October 7, that of the night of April 13 is engraved forever on people’s consciences, and will galvanize the Resistance while speeding up the process of “reverse migration” of the Israeli settlers who have lived through a night of terror and nightmare, and are now convinced that their army is incapable of protecting them. The myth of the “land of milk and honey” is gone for ever, replaced by an unspoken promise of “blood, toil, tears and sweat” without any prospect of victory.
With the senseless act of attacking the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Netanyahu sought to escape the ineluctable reality of the bitter military failure of the army of occupation, despite 6 months of unfathomable genocide and destruction, and to restore Israel’s illusion of power. The result is the opposite of what was expected, with Israel weaker and more isolated than ever, and its Western backers disgraced beyond return, Biden having already lost the next election because of his unwillingness to end the massacre in Gaza. Israel now has only one alternative: end the war or go forward with a suicidal escalation that will set the whole of West Asia ablaze. The United States has clearly announced its desire to calm tensions and reach a ceasefire, even if the US taxpayer money & military industry keeps fueling the conflict. The question now is whether Netanyahu will put the interests of Israel, whose very future is at stake, before his own personal instinct for self-preservation, as his political career will be over the minute the war ends.
NATO member blames Israel for Iranian attack
RT | April 16, 2024
Iran’s first direct attack on Israel is the fault of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu first and foremost, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said.
In a televised address after a cabinet meeting in Ankara, Erdogan said it was unfair to look at last Saturday’s events in a vacuum.
“The one chiefly responsible for the tension that gripped our hearts on the evening of April 13 is Netanyahu and his bloody administration,” he said.
“Since October 7, the Israeli government has opted for provocative moves in order to spread the fire to the entire region. The Israeli government targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus, violating international law and the Vienna Convention, and that was the last straw,” added Erdogan.
Tehran’s diplomatic mission was struck on April 1, killing seven high-ranking officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, including two generals. Israel never officially claimed responsibility for the strike, but has repeatedly bombed Syria, claiming preemptive self-defense from the Iranian presence there.
“We have seen the double-standard approach of Western countries,” Erdogan said, pointing out that only a handful of countries condemned Israel’s move, but rushed to denounce Iran’s response.
Tehran eventually launched scores of drones and missiles against targets inside Israel. The US, UK, France and Jordan helped the Israelis with air defense but some of the projectiles got through, causing unspecified damage.
Erdogan also blamed Israel for the current conflict in general, saying its forces have “indiscriminately” killed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, including people standing in line for humanitarian aid.
“For more than 132 days, Israel has been implementing genocidal policies,” the Turkish leader claimed.
Netanyahu declared war on Gaza-based Hamas after the Palestinian militant group raided nearby Israeli villages and military bases last October. Much of Gaza has since been reduced to rubble and its civilian population pushed to the edge of starvation. A recent report by UN Human Rights Council special rapporteur Francesca Albanese has accused Israel of intending to commit genocide in the enclave.
Iran’s strike on Israel was much more successful than it seems. Here’s why
By Abbas Juma | RT | April 16, 2024
On the night of April 14, Iran and its proxy forces launched a series of cruise missile and kamikaze drone strikes on Israeli territory. The attacks did not come as a surprise. Tehran had warned that it would respond to the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, on April 1, which killed several high-ranking officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals. The retaliatory strike was called Operation True Promise.
There is still much debate on whether Iran’s retaliatory strike was successful. Most military experts agree that there was nothing unusual about Tehran’s actions, except that this was Iran’s first direct attack on Israel. From a technical point of view, the strategy was simple and correct: Iran first suppressed the enemy’s air defense systems with drones and then launched hypersonic missiles which the Israelis and Americans were not able to intercept. Incidentally, in light of this, Ukraine’s statements about shooting down Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles sound ridiculous.
Do not jump to conclusions
Many experts were skeptical about Iran’s strike and hastened to say that the retaliation did not live up to expectations. Given the clip thinking of most commentators, this reaction is hardly surprising. Their reasoning resembles a Hollywood blockbuster stuffed with special effects, where the end of the world and its miraculous salvation fit into 90-120 minutes, with a love scene in the middle. In real life, things are different. As Sun Tzu wrote in ancient times, to fight 100 battles and win 100 battles is not the height of skill. The best way to win is not to fight at all. This is Iran’s strategy. Its strike against Israel was not so much a military response as a grandmaster’s move in a big chess game. And the game is not over yet.
After the attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria’s capital, Tehran found itself in a tough situation. It had to respond in a way that would look convincing and would achieve specific military goals, but would not start World War III.
To achieve the first point, Iran had to carry out a direct strike without resorting exclusively to proxy forces – and that is indeed how it acted. Regarding the second point, even though most of the missiles and drones were indeed shot down, some managed to penetrate Israeli air space and hit military targets. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, said that the information center on the Israeli-Syrian border and Israel’s Nevatim air base were hit. And finally, as to the third point – war didn’t happen. This resembled the situation in 2020, when the Iranians hit US bases in Iraq in response to the assassination of General Soleimani.
However, it is still too early to speculate as to whether Iran’s attack was a success or not. The big question now is how Israel will respond.
What Iran has accomplished
It’s important to emphasize that Iran’s operation carried more political than military weight. In this sense, it was carried out subtly and was a success. Obviously, the Iranians did not want to start a war which would involve the US, even though that is what Netanyahu wanted. In other words, Israel didn’t manage to provoke Iran.
It is also obvious that the Islamic Republic possesses more powerful drones and missiles than those used in the attack on April 14. However, even the less advanced drones and missiles were able to penetrate Israeli air space and inflict economic damage, since Israel spent much more money on shooting down the missiles and drones than Iran spent on launching them.
Tehran has once again demonstrated that Israel is not invulnerable, and it is possible to attack it. As for the degree of inflicted damage, which some commentators were unsatisfied with, it largely depends on the type of missiles and drones used in the attack – and Iran has a lot of military equipment.
Finally, Iran’s main achievement is that it has managed to confuse Israel in the same way that it was confused after the October 7 Hamas attack. The country has to respond. But how? Should Israel strike Iranian proxy forces? This is possible, but Israel does it all the time without much result. Should it hit Iran directly? But that would start a war which no one is prepared for, including the US.
Conclusion
The ball is now in Israel’s court, and the country faces the same challenges that the Islamic Republic did after April 1. But will Israel be able to solve these challenges as efficiently?
It is noteworthy that IRGC Commander-in-Chief, Hossein Salami, said that from now on, if Israel attacks the interests of Iran and Iranian citizens, Tehran will strike it again.
This is an important statement. Essentially, the attack carried out by Iran on April 14 was not just a retaliatory strike, but established a new order. Iran demonstrated that it is ready to resort to new means of influence in a situation where words are not sufficient. It attacked Israel directly not in order to start a war, but to demonstrate what could happen if all other methods of pressure on Israel fail.
A new option has been put forward. Israel may be deprived of its most important advantage – absolute impunity, which until recently had been guaranteed by the US.
What you need to know about the Iranian attack on Israel but will not find in mainstream news
By Gilbert Doctorow | April 15, 2024
Iran’s weekend massive drone, cruise missile and ballistic missile attack on Israel has now been covered in the global media, with the headlines announcing that 99% of the barrage was shot down by Israeli, U.S. and other friendly air defense systems. The question these media pose is what will be the Israeli response, as if that were a matter strictly to be decided by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet.
In fairness, I note that The Financial Times has also published a front page article setting out what it considers to be the Iranian perspective on the attack, namely that it was successful insofar as it demonstrated their country is not shying away from direct military confrontation with Israel and is confidently prepared to prosecute a full scale war if it comes to that. See “We’re crazier than you realize”: Iran delivers its message with attack on Israel. Tehran believes calibrated missile and drone barrage is enough to restore deterrent and bolster image.”
However, the Iranian position is much more nuanced and contains far greater threat not only to Israel but also to the entire United States presence in the region than the FT suggests. I say this on the basis of an analysis provided on last night’s edition of the Vladimir Solovyov talk show on Russian state television by a regular panelist, Semyon Arkadievich Bagdasarov, who is a leading Russian specialist on the region.
For those who wish to see and hear Bagdasarov’s 14 minutes on air in the original Russian, the link is https://all-make.su/22174-vecher-s-solovyovym-14-04-2024/ minutes: 27 – 41.
In what follows I offer a brief biographical sketch of Bagdasarov so that the seriousness of his remarks can be better appreciated. Then I will summarize what he said on air.
Aged 69, Bagdasarov was born in Central Asia in the Ferghana Valley, which passes through Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Accordingly, he has the proper birthright to his position since 2014 as director of the think tank called the Center for the Study of the Countries of the Near East and Central Asia. However, Bagdasarov reached this academic plateau after passing through a succession of military and civilian government posts, including the 5 years starting in 2007 as a Duma member from the ‘For a Just Russia opposition party of Sergei Mironov, which might be described as slightly to the Left of the ruling United Russia party.
Bagdasarov’s professional education was in a military academy and he ultimately retired with the rank of colonel. He then moved into government service first at the regional level and then as an expert to the Duma, to which, as I said above, he was later elected.
In line with what the FT article has said, Bagdasarov calls the Iranian attack on Israel a limited strike intended as a warning, but also yielding both specific tactical and strategic results.
On the tactical side, the swarming of drones was intended to activate the Iron Dome and other levels of Israeli air defense and to reveal the location of their component parts as well as to deplete the Israeli stock of relevant missiles.
Per Bagdasarov, Israeli claims to have shot down 99% of the incoming barrage should be taken with a grain of salt. The Iranians’ key targets in the attack were the Israeli air force base in the south of the country from which the Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus was launched two weeks ago and a military intelligence compound which had prepared that deadly strike. The actual extent of damage from Iranian missiles remains to be evaluated.
Bagdasarov explains that the Iranian attack was ‘limited’ because it consisted of rather slow moving drones and of missiles with small warheads. These were not Iran’s most advanced and lethal attack materiel, which has been held in reserve for any possible Round Two.
How many drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles does Iran have? Bagdasarov says no one knows exactly but it may well be 10,000 or more and includes several hundred highly advanced missiles which also have multiple warheads and so are very difficult to defend against. Over the past 20 years, Iran has bet its defense budget on missiles and drones, and it has a large-scale serial production of both. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional allies also have large stocks of these weapons, some of which are also fairly sophisticated. In particular, Hizbollah in Lebanon may have 1500 high quality missiles in its arsenal.
At the strategic level, Iran demonstrated its ability to coordinate a missile and drone attack on Israel with its regional proxies so as to maximize the threat coming from all directions.
Iran used the attack to achieve a political and military objective that has long eluded it. Teheran has now issued threats against Persian Gulf states to bomb any and all that allow the Americans to use their air space or otherwise facilitate Israel’s possible revenge attack on Iran from their territories. These states all fear a war and have now agreed to Iran’s demand. In effect, this negates decades of U.S. unchallenged domination in the Gulf.
Iran has specifically threatened the U.S. regional command in Qatar and the base of the 5th fleet in Bahrain.
The latter point is reflected in Biden’s latest urging restraint on Israel. Washington has understood that its forces in the region are now hostage to whatever Netanyahu may do against Iran as follow-up to this weekend’s barrage.
Furthermore, at the threat level, Iran has a still unused but clearly visible ace in the hole: its ability at will to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and thereby cut off nearly all export shipments of gas and oil from the region. The Straits are just 50 km wide and are easily controlled by Iran’s anti-ship missiles ashore. Such a closure would create havoc on global energy markets. We were reminded of Iran’s dominant position there several days ago when they captured a container ship owned by an Israeli millionaire which was traveling through and directed it to their own coast.
And what about Israel’s alleged plans to attack Iran’s nuclear installations? Bagdasarov insists that this is an impossible objective. Firstly, because the Iranian nuclear program is distributed among 200 centers spread across the vast country and many of these locations are in desert areas buried under 40 meters of sand. The Israelis might only destroy a couple of the best known nuclear centers. Secondly, because to reach their targets in Iran, the Israeli jets would require in-air refueling by American tankers, and it is scarcely credible that Biden will give his consent considering how the U.S. regional bases are under threat.
Iran fired this time only on military objects, but if they use not 300 but 10,000 missiles and drones then Israel will be obliterated. Hizbollah alone have 1,500 advanced missiles. Iran surely has real missiles and drones that are still more powerful. No one knows exactly how many. Over the past 20 years Iran placed its bets on drones and missiles. In the assortment, they have some very sophisticated multi warhead missiles that are unstoppable.
Later in the program (at 1 hour 36 minutes) a military commentator who is a frequent panelist on the Solovyov show, Lt General (retired), Yevgeny Buzhinsky, head of the Center of Applied Military Research of Moscow State University, seconded the estimation of Bagdasarov that this was just a warning, a PR exercise by Iran. As for the shoot-down, he noted that with its S400 and other systems Russia has probably the best air defense in the world, and yet they strain to reach the 99% interception that Israel has blithely claimed.
As host Vladimir Solovyov commented at the opening of the program, the principal fact is that the Iranians did it. They spat on the U.S. and its allies, and they just did what they believed was necessary. In consequence the world ‘built on rules’ counts for nothing.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Russia Slams UNSC for Ignoring Attack on Iranian Consulate, Calls for End to Bloodshed
Sputnik – 14.04.2024
UNITED NATIONS – Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzia criticized the UN Security Council for failing to act on the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria as he urged an end to bloodshed in the Middle East during an emergency UNSC meeting on Sunday.
“It is regrettable that unlike the meeting today, you did not propose to bring it to brief the Council on the 2nd of April,” he said, adding that Russia called an emergency briefing to discuss the Israeli strike against the consular premises in Damascus.
Nebenzia criticized Israel for not complying with the UN Security Council resolutions, which he said was “an obvious disrespect shown to the Council, to all of you who are here in the members seats, and a complete disregard to the decisions made by the Security Council.”
“This high level confrontation and bloodshed must be stopped We think it’s urgent for the entire international community to undertake all the efforts necessary to de-escalate the situation,” Nebenzia said.
Iran’s attack on Israel did not happen in a vacuum – it was a response to the shameful inaction of the UN Security Council, the Russian ambassador stressed.
“What happened on the night of April 14 did not happen ‘in a vacuum.’ Iran’s steps were a response to the shameful inaction of the United Nations Security Council [and] a response to Israel’s blatant attack on Damascus… by no means the first. Syria is constantly being bombed by Israel,” Nebenzia said.
On April 3, the US and UK refused to discuss Russia’s proposed draft UN Security Council statement on the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. London and Washington then cited the fact that there was no unity in the meeting’s assessment of what happened. On Sunday, an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council is taking place in connection with the retaliatory strike that Iran carried out on the territory of Israel. Meanwhile, shortly before that, Iran’s mission to the UN said that if the Security Council had condemned the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate and brought the perpetrators to justice, the need for Iran to punish the Israeli side “could have been eliminated.”
Russia calls for restraint on all sides involved in the incident with Iran’s attack on Israel, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN highlighted.
Russia calls on Israel to follow the example of Iran, which has said it does not want further escalation, Nebenzia said.
“We note Tehran’s signal of unwillingness to further escalate hostilities with Israel. We urge West Jerusalem to follow its example and abandon the practice of provocative forceful actions in the Middle East, fraught with extremely dangerous risks and consequences on the scale of the entire region, already destabilized as a result of the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation,” Nebenzia emphasized.
Ottawa fails to condemn Israeli damage to Canadian embassy
By Yves Engler | The Canada Files | April 13, 2024
An apartheid state committing genocide damaged a Canadian embassy while conducting a flagrant war crime. But Ottawa has remained silent about an incident designed to ignite a regional war.
Two weeks ago, the Israeli Air Force murdered 16 people in strikes on Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus. They reportedly killed two top Iranian generals, two civilians and a dozen militants. The illegal strikes obviously impinged on Syrian sovereignty and contravene multiple conventions such as the 1963 Vienna Convention on Consular Relations.
Dozens of governments condemned Israel’s violation of international law. The European Union criticized the strikes and a senior United Nations official told an emergency meeting of the Security Council that the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises and personnel must be respected. The Coordinating Bureau of the 120 nation Non-Aligned Movement released a statement that “strongly condemns the heinous attack conducted by Israel against Iranian diplomatic premises and representatives in Damascus.”
For its part, Ottawa failed to criticize Israel’s actions even as it has emerged that Israel’s strike destroyed a number of windows in the Canadian embassy, which is located next to Iran’s. While formally closed since 2012, the damaged embassy remains Canadian property.
Ottawa was also mum when Israel killed over 50 people in Syria, 72 hours earlier. To the best of this author’s knowledge, the Trudeau government hasn’t criticized any of Israel’s innumerable — 33 times since the start of this year — illegal strikes in that country. Nor has Ottawa criticized a series of (presumed) Israeli killings in Iran though they regularly criticize that country’s actions.
As Israel has bombed Lebanon, Syria and Palestine in recent years, Ottawa has sold it arms and maintained a multitude of bilateral and multilateral military ties. Additionally, the Trudeau government has turned a blind eye to the inducement of Canadians to join or assist the Israeli military in violation of the Foreign Enlistment Act and to registered charities fundraising for the Israeli military in contravention of Canada Revenue Agency rules.
Israel’s attack on Iran’s diplomatic outpost in Syria is a major escalation. The Iranians have said they will respond with a significant assault (reportedly Tehran told Washington that if they impose a ceasefire in Gaza, they will hold back). Israel has responded to Iranian threats by claiming it will further escalate the conflict. On Wednesday Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, posted to X, “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran.” President Joe Biden said the US will support Israel.
As has been speculated for some time, Benjamin Netanyahu wants to draw the US into a war with Iran. Netanyahu has long hyped the Iranian threat and wants to have the US weaken the only power in the region that hasn’t been cowed by Israel/US dictates.
Netanyahu has a personal interest to continue fighting. He’s likely going to be ousted as prime minister and may even end up in jail on corruption charges when the fighting stops. Additionally, Israel has failed in its bid to liquidate Hamas in Gaza, Palestine. After six months of Israeli-perpetrated horrors, most of Hamas’ top leaders are alive, uncaptured, and Israel hasn’t even recovered those kidnapped on October 7.
More generally, instigating wars is a national pastime for Israel. (“Israel is an army with a state” goes the saying). Israel has bombed Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, Tunisia and Iraq. Fifteen years ago, Israeli military historian Zeev Maoz explained in Defending The Holy Land: A Critical Analysis of Israel’s Security & Foreign Policy:
“Between 1948 and 2004, Israel fought six interstate wars, fought two (some say three) civil wars, and engaged in over 144 dyadic militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) that involved the threat, the display, or the use of military force against another state. Israel is by far the most conflict prone state in modern history. It has averaged nearly four MIDS every year. It has fought an interstate war every nine years. Israel appears on top of the list of the most intense international rivalries in the last 200-year period.”
Later in the book, Moaz said:
“There was only one year out of 56 years of history in which Israel did not engage in acts involving the threat, display, or limited use of force with its neighbors. The only year in which Israel did not engage in a militarized conflict was 1988, when Israel was deeply immersed in fighting the Palestinian uprising, the intifada. So, it is fair to say that during each and every year of its history Israel was engaged in violent military actions of some magnitude.”
Maoz concludes (describing the Nakba as a “war of independence”):
“None of the wars — with a possible exception of the 1948 war of Independence — was what Israel refers to as Milhemet Ein Brerah (‘war of necessity’). They were all wars of choice or wars of folly.”
For its size, Israel may be the most violent state in the history of humanity. Canada has seldom criticized and in fact enabled this rogue state, as it unleashes ever more death and destruction.
Yves Engler is the author of 13 books. His latest book, available now, is “Canada’s Long Fight Against Democracy”.
Strike on Israel Shows US Bases Near Iran Are ‘Achilles Heel’ – Analyst
By Svetlana Ekimenko – Sputnik – 14.04.2024
Fears of a greater Middle East escalation were triggered after Iran launched a massive drone and missile attack against Israel, aided by Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis. Iran said the attack was in response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed seven members of the elite Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Iran’s massive retaliatory attack on Israel from its own territory is a sign that the conflict could “escalate out of control.”
Michael Maloof, a former senior security analyst in the office of the US secretary of defense, told Sputnik that the first ever direct Iranian attack on Israel set a dangerous precedent.
“My concern is that this could easily escalate into something not only between Iran and Israel, but beyond the Middle East region,” he said.
Iran’s assault, which it stated was an act of “self-defense” after the Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, was originally intended to be a “limited” one, said Maloof.
Iran first sent in “swarms of drones with lights on as a sign of psychological warfare,” but sending in cruise and ballistic missiles by Tehran was a “distinct escalation,” said Maloof.
The scale of Iran’s attack on Israel suggests that Tehran was sending a message, demonstrating that it possesses “extraordinary capabilities,” said Maloof.
“They have built up their missile capabilities extraordinarily, they have drones, cruise missiles, and some of the most accurate ballistic missiles in the region right now,” he added.
“I think that this clearly showed that Iran has a capability. I think it’s limited. They cannot do this on a sustained basis. And they did send their slower ordinance, such as drones, UAVs. But they also claim to have hypersonics,” Maloof noted.
“I think that if Israel were to retaliate, then I think they would engage the more sophisticated missiles and hypersonics, potentially, if they have them,” He added. “Then you’re talking some very serious escalation in the entire region. It’s already unprecedented, but this escalation could be even ratcheted up that could conceivably bring in other and extend beyond just this region.”
All signs point to the potential of a larger regional war erupting, Maloof warned, adding that everything now depends on Israel’s reaction. “Is this a tit-for-tat, a one-on-one, or a further escalation?” he asked.
“I think we are already getting that message from Netanyahu, his ministers, that they are going to respond… How they respond is going to determine the extent of that escalation through the [Middle East] region,” stressed Maloof. “I am quite concerned that neither side is going to stand down at this point.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prepared to “continue an endless war in the region,” suggested Maloof, adding that he “knows he had the US backing,” and could opt to strike now, taking advantage of this “window of opportunity.”
“He may not get such an opportunity under a potential Trump administration coming in [after the US elections in November],” said the expert.
Looking at possible scenarios for Israel’s response, he noted that Tel Aviv had already stated publicly an intention to “go after the nuclear sites in Iran.”
“That is going to be exceedingly difficult, plus I don’t know that they have the power projection to do that on any consistent basis, and secondly, I don’t believe they have the so-called ‘bunker busters’ that would be needed to be able to drill down through the mountains to reach those facilities. The US has been reluctant to give Israel these bunker buster [munitions],” said Maloof.
As for the US, it has already “gotten sucked into this,” Maloof noted.
US President Joe Biden issued a statement on Iran’s attack against Israel after speaking with Netanyahu by phone. Biden condemned the attack “in the strongest possible terms”.
He reaffirmed Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to help support Israel’s security. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US does “not seek escalation” but will “continue to support” Israel’s defense. “I will be consulting with allies and partners in the region and around the world in the hours and days ahead,” he added.
“There is already a call in Congress to put on fast-track the legislation to approve new ordinance, and the $14 billion for Israel,” said the pundit. He remarked that the Pentagon might “empty its stockpiles to provide support to Israel,” and recalled that besides giving Israel bombs and artillery, the US supports its Iron Dome air defense system, whose missiles will need to be replenished.
“If you have a swarm, wave after wave of swarms, Israel is going to be very hard pressed to be able to defend against that. And that’s why the US now is coming in, and that gets the US directly involved,” Maloof pointed out. “And that could then open up US assets in the region.” We have got some 35 bases that surround Iran, and they thereby become vulnerable. They were meant to be a deterrence. Clearly, deterrence is no longer on the table here. Now they become the American Achilles heel because of their vulnerabilities to attack. They’ve got air defense systems, but they’ve got to be replenished. And given that you got active war going on right now in the region, it’s going to be difficult to replenish those supplies.”
According to the ex-Pentagon analyst, much now also depends upon what stockpiles Iran has and “with what consistency they can keep sending these wave after wave of drones and ballistic missiles… Ultimately, if they have them, the hypersonics… and there’s no defense against hypersonics. Not even Israel’s ‘Arrow’ system, which is designed to deal with ballistic missiles… And apparently, that’s been engaged tonight, as well as the Iron Dome.”
The United Nations (UN) Security Council is to meet on Sunday in response to a request from Gilad Erdan, Israel’s permanent representative to the United Nations. The meeting is scheduled for 4 pm New York time (2000 GMT), as announced by the UN Department of Global Communications.
“I’m hoping that the UN Security Council can take this up and maybe some adult supervision could begin to intervene in this and maybe try to bring it to a halt for now,” Maloof said. “But right now, this minute, it doesn’t look like it. And again, it’s going to depend upon the response from the Israelis if they go directly into Iran in response.”
The current media frenzy surrounding the Iran strike is “disproportionately amplified compared to the actual events transpiring on the ground,” Dr Ahmed Al Ibrahim, a Riyadh-based political analyst, told Sputnik.
He added that any true aftermath of Iran’s strike will be discernible after a “thorough assessment.”
“Indeed, I dismiss the current situation as largely sensationalized, a “bubble” inflated by media coverage and public attention,” the political analyst said.
He expressed skepticism that any Middle Eastern countries would “willingly entangle themselves in the unfolding chaos.” Arguing that “Iran’s capacity to directly threaten Israel is limited by geographical constraints,” Ibrahim agreed that there is “potential for escalation.”
Game Over? Persian Gulf Powers Reportedly Refuse to Give US Access to Bases for Anti-Iran Strikes
By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 13.04.2024
Going back to the Gulf War in 1991, the US has depended on regional allies for large-scale military operations across the Middle East. Now, as tensions between Israel and Iran rise and the US-led unipolar world order comes under strain, America’s traditional partners are apparently refusing to walk in lock step with Washington.
Persian Gulf countries have reportedly told the United States not to launch any attacks against Iran from their territory or airspace amid seething regional tensions.
Sources, including a senior US official told the Middle East Eye that Gulf monarchies have been “working overtime” on the diplomatic track “to shut down avenues that could link them to a US reprisal against Tehran or its proxies from bases inside their kingdoms.”
The countries include regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Kuwait, with their leaderships reportedly “raising questions” on the details of US basing agreements, and taking steps to prevent the use of their Iran-adjacent bases against the Islamic Republic.
NATO member Turkiye has also reportedly barred the US from using its airspace for strikes against Iran, but Sputnik has not been able to independently verify this information.
“It’s a mess,” a senior US official said, referring to the headache the Biden administration faces as it prepares for a potential Iranian retaliatory strike against its top regional ally Israel following Tel Aviv’s April 1 attack on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus, Syria.
The Middle East Eye report follows a report by Axios on Friday citing US officials who said that Iran has privately warned the US that it will target American forces in the Middle East if Washington gets involved in a military confrontation between Iran and Israel.
The US has an estimated 40,000+ military personnel at bases dotting the Middle East, including the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts at least 10,000 troops, and serves as the forward headquarters of United States Central Command – the combatant command responsible for military operations across the Middle East. Nearby Bahrain hosts up to 7,000 troops and the US Fifth Fleet – which operates in the Persian Gulf, the Red and Arabian Seas, and part of the Indian Ocean. The US also has a 15,000-troop garrison in Kuwait, at least 5,000 troops in the UAE, and about 2,700 troops and fighter jets at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Oman hosts a few hundred US troops, and allows the US Air Force to conduct overflights and landings, and warships to make 80 port calls annually.
The Gulf powers’ increasingly independent foreign policy is potentially a major setback for Washington, which for many decades after World War II (and especially after the Cold War) was able to rely on the Persian Gulf monarchies for its military operations in the oil-rich region.
Regional countries led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken a series of steps recently to wean themselves off of dependence on the US economically, politically and militarily, with Riyadh moving to break the petrodollar monopoly in the oil trade with China, pausing its military campaign against Yemen’s Houthi militia, restoring diplomatic ties with Iran and, together with Abu Dhabi, joining the BRICS Plus bloc.
The Palestinian-Israeli crisis has driven Gulf state leaders and their populations further from the idea of the establishing relations with Israel, and chilled ties with the US thanks to the Biden administration’s full-fledged support for Tel Aviv in the course of the Gaza War.
