UPDATE:
Full Transcript of German Top Military Officials’ Leaked Plot to Attack Crimean Bridge
German officers plot Taurus missile attack on the Crimea bridge
By Gilbert Doctorow | March 2, 2024
You very likely have not heard anything about the headlined news, but it is an item which has been widely discussed in official Russian media yesterday and today. RT took the lead in publicizing it and other news portals followed suit. Moreover, it was featured on yesterday’s Sixty Minutes news and analysis program of Russian state television.
The plans to destroy the bridge at Kerch have not been reported by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, which yesterday was very heavily invested in covering the Navalny funeral in Moscow, but they are mentioned in the German publications Welt and Bild. The focus in these publications was on whether allegedly intercepted audio conversations of high level German officers are genuine and not AI faked. The verdict is that they are likely genuine. Meanwhile the German authorities have banned the X (Twitter) accounts which initially disseminated the recordings.
The essence of the scandal is that the officers were on 19 February discussing preparations for an attack on the bridge using Taurus long range cruise missiles launched from French-made Dassault Rafale jets. The participants in the intercepted conversations were the head for operations and exercises at the Air Forces Command of the Bundeswehr command Frank Grafe, Air Force Inspector Ingo Gerhartz and employees of the Air Operations Command within the Space Operations Center of the Bundeswehr Fenske and Frohstedte.
This news was commented upon by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who called up the German press to show their independence and question German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock about this plot, which runs directly against what Chancellor Scholz was saying at the time about the inadmissibility of introducing the Taurus into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The transcript of the plotters is available here:
It makes for good weekend reading.
You will notice how these senior German officers are looking for solutions that do not cross the Chancellor’s red lines against appearing to collude with the Ukrainians and appearing to direct their targeting. Also note the hand-in-glove cooperation with the British, who have accumulated a lot of experience assisting the Ukrainian strikes behind Russian lines using their Storm Shadow missiles. Finally, see the remark that there are a great many individuals speaking with American accents who are assisting the Ukrainian military in operating the sophisticated weaponry being delivered to them while wearing civilian dress.
*****
Further, one might ask: what is the German government going to do about this seeming insubordination which could lead directly to Russia declaring war on Germany and taking us further down the road to WWIII. Logically, they should all be fired, at least suspended and a Bundestag investigation should be initiated. If Scholz cannot disown this plot then he is part of it.
Finally, I am obliged to mention that the release of this news by the Kremlin three days after the State of the Nation address by Vladimir Putin puts in an essential context the President’s remarks in that speech that the Russians have missiles capable of striking the territory of those who may attack their country and that this could lead to nuclear war and ‘the end of civilization.’ That last point is virtually the only element in his speech which attracted the interest of Western media. We now see that it did not come out of the blue, but was clear messaging to the Germans, to the United States that Russia knows the game they are preparing to strike the Kerch bridge and will respond with the full force of its arms.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Ongoing largest military exercises suggest NATO’s escalation toward potential conflict
By Mark Blacklock | Global Times | February 1, 2024
It would be misleading to call NATO’s ongoing exercise simply a war game because that evokes scenes of people in costume reenacting historic battles or modern armies charging about, field-testing their tactics and equipment. Exercise Steadfast Defender 2024 is far from harmless. It is very much a rehearsal, and – in a theater where war is already raging – possibly even a provocation. With the Russia-Ukraine conflict still ongoing, Steadfast Defender – NATO’s largest military venture since the Cold War – could be seen by Moscow as a deliberate poking of the Russian bear.
As the bloc’s 31 armies, along with another from membership contender Sweden, hurl 90,000 of their military personnel into a make-believe battle, Russia and Ukraine’s forces are engaged in a very real and deadly conflict on NATO’s doorstep. It is crucial for NATO to consider the risks of miscalculation and the resulting escalation to ensure that their simulated exercises do not inadvertently become entangled with the actual theatre of war next door, which would be too terrifying to think about.
Let’s not forget that while NATO is engaged in military exercises from Europe’s High North to Central and Eastern Europe until May 31, it is simultaneously deeply involved in the conflict with Russia through its proxy, Ukraine. Furthermore, the alliance’s own statements claim the drills are specifically to test its ability to “deploy forces rapidly from North America and other parts of the alliance to reinforce the defense of Europe.” In other words, the large-scale participation of 32 armies is a preparation for the potential scenario where proxy engagement escalates into open warfare with Russia.
It is a day that Western politicians and senior armed forces personnel increasingly seem to expect. In January, Britain’s defense secretary Grant Shapps ominously predicted that the UK could be at war with Russia, China, North Korea and Iran within five years. Then Britain’s top soldier, General Sir Patrick Sanders, chief of the General Staff, made a rallying cry last year, urging his troops to prepare to defeat Russia “in battle.”
The chair of NATO’s military committee, Dutch admiral Rob Bauer, said large numbers of civilians will need to be mobilized for a Russia conflict.
Sweden’s Military Commander-in-chief General Micael Byden stated that all Swedes should be mentally prepared for war. Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said war with Russia could be possible in the next five to eight years. General Eirik Kristofferson, the head of Norway’s armed forces, warned: “The people of Norway should give thought to their readiness. We recommend being able to cope without outside help for three days.” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has cautioned that Europe has three to five years to prepare for any threat from Russia. All suggest that civilians will be central to any future war. The populations are being groomed. They are being told NATO is a defensive shield, when increasingly it looks like a brandished sword.
Talk of “three to five years” is significant, as that is the time it will take NATO’s nations to restore their equipment and ordnance stockpiles, after supplying so much to Ukraine.
The NATO countries are so deeply enmeshed in the Russia-Ukraine fighting that they have effectively become Kiev’s quartermaster. It is a role they have played with increasing enthusiasm – and increasing lethality. When the conflict began almost two years ago, there were diplomatic protests, many nations threw open their borders to refugees, but James Heappey, the UK’s minister for the armed forces, told the House of Commons: “British and NATO troops should not – must not – play an active role in Ukraine.”
Yet two years on, we are much closer to realizing what he said should never happen, with NATO’s generals and Europe’s politicians openly talking of war with Russia and prepping their populations for the worst.
Britain escalated its initial token military support of anti-tank missiles and modest kit like rations to include many thousands of missiles, air defense systems, and £25 million to pay armed forces’ salaries. Mission creep eventually saw more than 120 armored vehicles, anti-ship missile systems, and £1.3 billion of financial aid followed. Short and medium-range missiles soon became long-range missiles.
Then there were strike-capable and naval drones. Long-range artillery, cruise missiles, helicopters, a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks, and even ships were dispatched. Then, with the US’ blessing, the Netherlands and Denmark supplied F-16 fighter jets.
Crucially, the West’s war aims have also changed: the Tallinn Pledge committed some to not only defend Ukraine but also to remove the Russians from disputed territory. If they continue down this path, could this pledge, along with the Article 5 commitments of the recently-expanded NATO – with Finland now part of the family and Sweden awaiting only Hungary’s approval – unleash the dogs of war?
Under cover of the ongoing exercises, with officials and politicians talking almost casually about World War III, NATO is not merely playing at war but preparing for it, and perhaps, it could even provoke it. Exercise Steadfast Defender marks the point at which NATO transitions from the pretense of a defensive union into a warlike one. Is the world on the brink of no return? Is it a matter of “when” rather than “if”?
The author is a journalist and lecturer in Britain.
German Military’s Crimean Bridge Strike Talk: ‘NATO Has Found Itself in Hot Water’
By Oleg Burunov – Sputnik – 02.03.2024
The situation around the leaked conversation between high-ranking German army officers has once again refuted NATO’s allegations about the alliance’s non-interference in the Ukrainian conflict, experts told Sputnik.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has demanded an “immediate explanation” from Berlin on the audio recording released earlier this week by Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of RT and Rossiya Segodnya, Sputnik’s parent media group.
In it, German generals are heard discussing a potential attack on the Crimean Bridge with Taurus missiles.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stressed in a statement that attempts by German authorities “to dodge the question will be considered an admission of guilt.”
High-ranking German officers discussed launching strikes on “Russian civilian infrastructure either with the tacit official consent of Berlin or behind its back; both variants are the matter of serious concern,” military expert Robinson Farinazzo, a former Brazilian Navy officer, said in an interview with Sputnik.
“The authorities are either aware of everything or they knew nothing, which means it was the military’s conspiracy – something that should be punished accordingly, right down to an option of all those involved being brought to tribunal,” Farinazzo said.
“If Berlin was in the know, it can be likened to a declaration of war,” he insisted, urging Moscow and Berlin to use diplomatic channels to defuse tensions over this information “about aggressive intentions.”
According to the expert, “It’s hard to imagine what measures Moscow might take if it considers actions by the German officers a serious provocation.”
The former Brazilian naval officer also drew attention to German authorities keeping mum on the matter. Likewise, how the information comes amid disagreements among Western countries on additional military aid to the Kiev regime, including the possibility of providing Ukraine with the Taurus cruise missiles and sending NATO military units to the country.
In this vein, Farinazzo said he believes that further developments will depend on whether the US Congress will okay more supplies to Ukraine or not. Even if Congress gives the green light, this will only add to prolonging the conflict and will fail to change the situation on the battlefield in favor of Ukraine, per the expert.
“The West and high-ranking NATO officers have already realized the fact that Ukraine cannot win. A potential strike on the Crimean Bridge would be tangible from a psychological point of view, but it would hardly affect the course of the special military operation, since Russia instead can use railroad or sea transport,” Farinazzo said.
International relations expert Tito Livio Barcellos Pereira from the Pontifical Catholic University of Sao Paulo, for his part said that the conversation once again raises doubts about the veracity of previous claims by Western authorities that NATO countries are not involved in the Ukraine conflict.
“NATO countries, which previously argued that they were not directly involved in the conflict and only limit themselves to sending aid to Kiev, have found themselves in hot water. Their claims are becoming less credible, while Russia’s arguments are sounding more convincing,” the expert underscored.
He noted that “in this situation, the leaders of Western states will probably have to explain themselves before lawmakers and the entire society of their countries, as well as before other NATO members, which have a more restrained stance.”
In Pereira’s opinion, the situation could lead to an even greater escalation of tensions between Russia and NATO, especially given that the alliance “does not want to hear the arguments by Moscow, which has repeatedly warned against the alliance’s infrastructure getting closer to Russian borders.”
“The German military’s recorded conversation once again confirms that the alliance continues to be involved in a [proxy] war with Russia,” Pereira concludes, berating Kiev and the West for deliberately sabotaging all alternative peace initiatives put forward by the Global South.
Russia-Ukraine Peace Settlement Attempt ‘Sabotaged’ in March 2022 – Erdogan
Sputnik – 01.03.2024
ANTALYA, Turkiye – The attempt to reach a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in March 2022 was “sabotaged,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday.
“The Ukrainian crisis has moved into its third year. Here in Antalya, the Istanbul process was launched. At that time, hopes for peace reached a new level. But unfortunately, due to the lack of the necessary support, our efforts have failed. The historic opportunity to achieve peace, to save tens of thousands of lives from destruction and to save tens of thousands of lives was actually missed, or, more precisely, sabotaged,” Erdogan said at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum.
Moscow launched its special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Russian and Ukrainian delegations engaged in several rounds of peace talks, including in Turkiye in March 2022, in the early days of the conflict. In October 2022, Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree stating that Kiev could not hold peace talks as long as President Vladimir Putin is in power in Russia.
In November 2023, Ukraine’s former chief negotiator with Russia, David Arakhamia, said then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson talked Kiev out of signing an agreement with Moscow to end the conflict in spring 2022. Johnson denies it.
Transcript released of purported German discussion on attacking Crimean Bridge
RT | March 1, 2024
The full text of what is claimed to be a discussion by senior German military officers on how to attack the Crimean Bridge in Russia was published by RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan on Friday. She reported that Russian security officials had leaked the recording hours earlier and has pledged to release the original audio shortly.
Simonyan identified the officers as General Ingo Gerhartz, the German Air Force commander, and senior leaders responsible for mission planning. The alleged conversation took place on February 19, according to the source of the leak.
The transcript reveals the officials discussed the efficiency of the Franco-British cruise missile called Storm Shadow by the UK and SCALP by France. Both nations donated some of their stockpile to Ukraine.
Kiev has called on Germany to provide some of its Taurus missiles. The officers in the leaked recording debate whether the weapon system was adequate for hitting the Crimean Bridge in Russia, which connects eastern Crimea to Krasnodar Region across the Kerch Strait.
According to the transcript, the officers discussed how a successful attack on a key piece of Russian infrastructure would require additional satellite data, possible deployment of missiles from French Dassault Rafale fighter jets, and at least a month of preparation.
One participant observed that due to the size of the bridge, which is the longest in Europe, even 20 missiles may not be enough to cause significant damage. It is comparable to a runway in that regard, he noted.
“They want to destroy the bridge… because it has not only military strategic importance, but also political significance,” Gerhartz is quoted as saying, apparently referring to officials in Kiev. “It would be concerning if we have direct connection with the Ukrainian armed forces.”
The officers went on to discuss how close the German military should be working on the proposed operation so as not to cross the ‘red line’ of being involved directly. Secretly training Ukrainians in the use of German weapons and helping them plan the operation were deemed acceptable. Concerns about the press learning about such cooperation were also raised, the transcript reveals.
Senior officials in Berlin have repeatedly made public statements explaining their reservations about sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this week that the Germany’s military cannot do for Ukraine what “was done on the part of the British and French in terms of target-control and target-control assistance.” The remark was rebuked by London and Paris, for allegedly distracting public attention from German unwillingness to donate arms to Kiev.
According to the released text, a large segment of the conversation was about practical aspects of preparing Kiev’s forces for deploying Taurus missiles, from training its military personnel, to adapting hardpoints of Ukrainian military jets for Berlin’s weapons, to providing technical support remotely via a safe link. The officers were concerned that speeding up the proposed handover may result in civilians being killed “again” in a weapons mishap.
When assessing the intelligence necessary for targeting the missiles, Gerhartz allegedly mused that, to provide such information, there are plenty of “people in civilian clothes with American accents” in Kiev that would cover up for the Germans.
US Refuses to Discuss ‘Nuclear Arms in Outer Space’ Despite Russia’s Dialogue Efforts
By Andrei Dergalin – Sputnik – 29.02.2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual address to Russia’s parliament on February 29, offering his assessment of issues related to the country’s foreign and domestic policies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin broached the subject of the United States recently alleging without any proof that Russia plans to deploy some kind of nuclear weapons in space during his State of the Nation address on Thursday.
Having dismissed these unfounded allegations, Putin mentioned that Russia is yet to receive any serious proposals from the US to initiate bilateral contacts on strategic stability.
Commenting on the Russian president’s remarks, Dr. Marco Marsili, a researcher at Cà Foscari University of Venice, pointed out that the US and its European allies have consistently refused to negotiate “international legally-binding instruments” with Russia, despite the latter’s initiatives aimed at preventing possible deployment of nuclear armaments in space.
According to Dr. Marsili, who is also an associate fellow at the Center for Strategic Research (Cesran International) and who holds research positions in major civil and military institutions in Portugal, the UK and Italy, the US and its allies torpedoed the initiatives “to maintain their technical advantages from its missile defense program and other space weapons.”
“In his speech delivered today, President Putin opened once again to a frank and genuine negotiation with the US on the placement of nuclear arms in outer space but, so far, has not received any signal from the counterpart,” he said.
“Today, Russia is in a stronger position due to its technological advances in missile defense and has developed hypersonic capabilities, like the Avangard rocket cited by President Putin in his speech, which place the country far away from its Western competitors. Notwithstanding, President Putin is still seeking dialogue with the White House, but does not receive any response.”
Dr. Marsili also weighed in on Putin’s statement about the need for a new global financial architecture that would be free from political interference, with Marsili noting how the “global governance” that emerged in the aftermath of World War II “was shaped by Western nations.”
“This post-colonialist governance, including the Bretton Woods system, is challenged by emerging countries from Africa and Latin America. The Sino-Russian cooperation agreement about the Belt and Road Initiative, and regional agreements with CSI member states can boost the economic growth of the region,” he continued.
Regarding Putin’s remark on Russia’s prospects to become one of the world’s four largest economies soon, Dr. Marsili observed that the figures presented by the Russian president to the audience during the speech “demonstrate the foreseen growth of the Russian economy, despite international sanctions.”
“These figures are reliable because they are based on data provided by the economic outlook of the major international institutions such as the IMF, the OECD, and the World Bank,” he added. “As of today, Russia’s economy is already among the largest in the world by nominal GDP. A significant economic power, Russia is not only the largest country in the world, but also an energy superpower and one of the largest producers of rare-earth materials that are crucial for many technologic applications.”
Meanwhile, Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at Russia’s Higher School of Economics, argued that one of the crucial themes of Putin’s address was the matter of Russia’s sovereignty.
“Without question, sovereignty was another crucial theme of Putin’s address and sovereignty could be considered as the ideology of Russian development in the observable future. The president emphasized the political, economic and technological sovereignty of Russia. Sovereignty is indeed a precondition of Russian not just development, but survival, and, of course, development,” he elaborated.
According to Suslov, “Western policies prove that the West uses and used the interdependence and Russian dependence on the Western technologies and markets as a weapon against Russia.”
Thus, in order to avoid such dependence in the future and to not exchange it for “a new dependence on the other countries,” Russia “needs to be sovereign in all crucial aspects of development – in technologies, in defense, in the main aspects of economic development and, of course, in the political sphere,” he postulated.
Russia Reveals Ties With Germany, France at Unprecedented Low
Sputnik -29.02.2024
MOSCOW – The signing of a security agreement between Paris, Berlin, and Kiev does not affect relations with Russia, which are at rock bottom, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told Sputnik.
“Referring specifically to Russia-Germany and Russia-France relations, I would like to emphasize that, unfortunately, at this stage there is little that could affect them for the worse. They are already at an unprecedentedly low level,” she said.
According to Zakharova, “the former partners [Germany and France] have discarded the voluminous baggage of large-scale, mutually beneficial bilateral cooperation [with Russia] accumulated over several generations.”
“This is not our decision. For two years we have been watching how NATO countries, including Germany and France playing a particularly active role (with Berlin ranking second after the United States in terms of supplying arms and military equipment to the Kiev regime), have been pumping Ukraine with modern lethal systems, training soldiers, supplying intelligence, and contributing to the escalation of hostilities,” Zakharova noted.
“All this makes them direct accomplices in Ukraine’s deeds,” she emphasized.
The spokeswoman claimed “the elites of these countries still indulge themselves in illusions about the possibility of inflicting a ‘strategic defeat’ on Russia and consider Vladimir Zelensky’s ‘peace formula’ ultimatum – which, we reiterate, is unacceptable to us – as the only basis for resolving the Ukrainian crisis.”
“In this context, the signing of new agreements is another – albeit symbolic – move in the West’s hybrid war with Russia, a confirmation of the focus on long-term confrontation with our country and an unwillingness to go down the path of political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict,” she concluded.
Hypersonic weapons promised six years ago now in service – Putin
RT | February 29, 2024
Moscow’s plans to deploy new, advanced weaponry, first revealed in 2018, have been realized or are in completion phases, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a keynote speech on Thursday.
Russian troops have already used the Kinzhal and Tsirkon hypersonic missiles in combat, hitting high-value Ukrainian military targets, Putin said, in an address to the Federal Assembly.
The Avangard strategic hypersonic gliders and the Peresvet laser system are already in service, the Russian leader said. A hypersonic glider is a vehicle usually designed for delivering a nuclear device. It can travel through the atmosphere at high altitude and great speed, and can maneuver to avoid interception.
Moscow will soon release footage of heavy strategic intercontinental ballistic Sarmat missiles in their silos, the president promised. Trials of the nuclear-powered, unlimited-range cruise missile Burevestnik and of the nuclear-capable underwater drone Poseidon are close to completion, he added.
“Those systems have confirmed their high – unique, I might say without exaggeration – specifications,” Putin said of the weapon systems.
All of the new arms, with the exception of the Tsirkon missile, were first revealed by the Russian president during a March 2018 address to the Federal Assembly.
At the time Putin described them as a response to US attempts to disrupt the strategic balance with Russia in its favor. Speaking on Thursday, he said Moscow remained willing to negotiate on the issue with Washington, but stressed that the countries’ relationship has since seriously deteriorated.
”We are dealing with a state whose ruling elites are openly taking hostile actions against us,” he said. “Do they seriously intend to discuss strategic stability with us while trying to inflict ‘strategic defeat on the battlefield,’ as they put it themselves, on Russia?”
He described Washington’s diplomatic stance as “hypocritical” and just a means to deliver outcomes that “are beneficiary only to the US.”
Transnistria Seeks Russia’s Help in Wake of Economic Blockade by Moldova
Sputnik – 28.02.2024
Predominantly Russian-speaking Transnistria, 60 percent of whose ethnic population are Russians and Ukrainians, declared its independence from Moldova during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Transnistrian lawmakers have asked Russia for assistance over mounting economic pressure from Moldova.
The legislators put forward a request to both the Federation Council and State Duma of Russia, urging them to implement measures to safeguard Transnistria, especially in light of Moldova’s growing pressure. This request is backed up by the fact that over 220,000 Russian citizens reside in Transnistria.
The bill’s authors pointed to the unique and positive experience of Russia’s peacekeeping work in the region and highlighted that Moscow has served as a mediator in negotiations.
“The critical situation requires urgent and maximum active international intervention in order to prevent an escalation of tensions and not allow the situation to develop into a crisis,” the document says.
As of January 1, 2024, Moldova launched a compulsory customs duty on goods imported to Transnistria. In reality, this amounts to multimillion-dollar losses for export-import companies operating in Transnistria, since they are required to pay a double tax: one to Transnistria and the other to the Moldovan budget.
Here’s How Russia Could Hit Back If West Seizes Assets
By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 27.02.2024
Some $300 billion in Russian assets were trapped abroad in 2022 after the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis into a full-on NATO-Russia proxy war. Western officials have threatened to seize these funds and transfer them to Ukraine for “reconstruction.” A pair of leading Russian economists tell Sputnik why that’s a very bad idea.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has called on nations of the Western “coalition” against Moscow to “find a way to unlock the value of [Russia’s] immobilized assets to support Ukraine’s continued resistance and long-term reconstruction.”
“I believe there is a strong international law, economic and moral case for moving forward. This would be a decisive response to Russia’s unprecedented threat to global stability,” Yellen said at a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Sao Paulo, Brazil on Tuesday.
Tackling the question of the potential threats to the dollar’s status as the de facto world reserve currency that such an unprecedented move would entail, Yellen said that it it’s “extremely unlikely” that the greenback would be negatively affected. “Realistically there are not alternatives to the dollar, euro and yen,” she assured.
Yellen is the latest senior Western official to propose moving forward with the seizure of Russian assets as Western countries’ own desire to continue fueling the Ukrainian proxy war against Russia falters. Earlier this month, the European Union adopted a law allowing Brussels to bank windfall profits from Russian assets trapped in European banks and use them in Ukraine, a move characterized by Moscow as blatant “theft” which will be met with legal action.
Russian officials and independent economic observers alike have warned of the possible consequences stemming from what Yellen is proposing, with Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov saying Moscow has the means to issue a “symmetrical” response to this form of Western financial aggression.
“We have no fewer frozen [assets than Western countries],” Siluanov said in an interview with Sputnik on Monday. “Any actions taken against our assets would receive a symmetrical response.”
Mechanism for Tit-For-Tat Response Already Exists
“Russia has already taken conservatorship of assets of a number of foreign companies which refused to operate in Russia,” Dr. Andrei Kolganov, a professor of economics at Moscow State University and chief researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economics, told Sputnik, commenting on the folly of the West’s asset seizure plans.
This instrument was already used against foreign investors with an ownership stake in the Baltika Beer Company, as well as the assets of Finnish energy concern Fortum, the professor noted.
“So in principle, the mechanism for the confiscation of foreign assets has already been worked out. Moving from conservatorship to confiscation is, in principle, a fairly simple technical procedure. The amount of assets that are ‘frozen’ on the territory of the Russian Federation, or which may be frozen, is now estimated at approximately $288 billion,” Kolganov explained.
In other words, the professor said, Russia has control over a big chunk of Western assets which, if the US and its allies proceed with confiscation, “will not escape to the West, but will work here in Russia, because we are talking about investment, first and foremost, in the manufacturing sector.”
From there, these assets could become the property of the Russian state, or be transferred to Russian private owners and continue to work as before.
Confiscation of assets of Western companies in Russia would seriously impact their respective bottom lines, meaning they could try to put pressure on governments, both in their home countries and in Russia, to try to avoid having their capital seized.
“We have a lot of foreign companies working in Russia, including those from so-called unfriendly countries. We have more than 50 decently-sized American firms alone working here, and plenty of European companies,” Dr. Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute of Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge at Russia’s Higher School of Economics, told Sputnik.
Sorry Yellen, Seizing Assets Won’t Crash Russian Economy
Kolganov says that as unpleasant as a seizure of Russia’s assets abroad might be it would not serve to tank the country’s economy, with Moscow able to continue its international payments using its sizable and healthy foreign exchange earnings after reorienting its trade toward developing countries. The money frozen in Western banks constitutes reserves, which “were not actively used for international trade and international payments” anyway, the professor explained.
“For private businesses, the confiscation of assets would create a pretty big hole in their earnings and budgets. Therefore, it would be a rather sensitive measure if Russia had to resort to it in response to the confiscation of its assets,” the economist added.
Dr. Ostapkovich emphasizes that Moscow will have to be strategic and precise in the foreign assets it may choose to seize, to avoid the risk of friendly countries and companies doing business in Russia feeling threatened.
“Every operation” on Russia’s part “must take place with the help of legal services, that is, through the courts,” the veteran economist said. “We are a state based on the rule of law, and cannot just go ahead and close them, because they will naturally go to court. Moreover, they will file in the London court, which judges according to Anglo-Saxon law. This is case law. They will look for a precedent.”
In other words, Ostapkovich stressed, Moscow should expect a tug of war on the international stage regarding the seizure of assets by the West and Russia’s tit-for-tat response.
Pandora’s Box of Damage to the Dollar
In his interview with Sputnik, Russia’s finance minister mentioned the promising transition away from Western currencies in favor of new currencies among the world’s rising economies, especially China.
“The Chinese are reducing their holdings of American securities. This is a consequence of what’s happening [to Russia, ed.] The reliability of the dollar and the euro has been undermined,” Siluanov said.
And while it may be too early to speak about the collapse of the dollar or euro as a result of a decision to seize the assets of a sizable economy like Russia, Kolganov confirmed that it has the potential to seriously undermine Western reserve currencies’ reputation in a big way.
“The yuan’s share in international transactions has doubled over the past two years, but doubled to only about 4.6 percent of the total. This is not a huge amount, but still, an upward trend exists. The share of rubles in international payments has also increased, mainly in the form of payments with our country… Nevertheless, a gradual move away from the dollar will of course take place. Because here we’re talking not only about the confiscation of assets, which will undermine confidence in payments made in reserve currencies. Because any country and any central bank may feel threatened that if the geopolitical situation changes, they could be treated in a similar way.”
The problem is exacerbated by the fact that the United States and Europe are facing a loss of economic confidence at home, with the former facing debt levels that are off the charts, which in the future could cause serious shocks to the entire global dollar system, Kolganov noted.
Recipe for Action
Russia can already move forward with tit-for-tat measures against the Europeans over Brussels’ law allowing the seizure and use of the interest earned on Russian assets frozen in Western banks, Ostapkovich says, noting if the EU moves forward with the seizures, Moscow could similarly start shaving dividends and interest on European companies operating in Russia.
EU’s Russia sanctions ‘massively circumvented’ – study
RT | February 27, 2024
The EU’s sanctions on Russia are being “massively circumvented” via third countries, Euractiv reported on Monday, citing a study by the IESEG School of Management. The bloc has introduced 13 rounds of restrictive measures against Moscow over the Ukraine conflict.
The research found statistical evidence that the sanctions have been hugely dodged for so-called “high priority items,” which are subject to EU export restrictions and include manufacturing equipment and electrical components with potential military applications.
According to the report, EU exports of such items to Türkiye, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and other “Kremlin-friendly” countries skyrocketed by €2.9 billion ($3.2 billion), or over 80%, in the period from October 2022 through September 2023 compared to the previous twelve-month span. The data shows that at the same time EU exports of such goods to Russia decreased by $3.5 billion, or more than 95%.
The decline in EU sales of advanced technology and dual-use items to Moscow was seen as almost entirely compensated for by a sharp increase in exports of the same goods to countries in West and Central Asia, according to Euractiv.
“The surge of these purchases by third countries is too huge to be entirely caused by an increase in local demand, so that it can be suspected that a big part was thereafter exported to Russia,” the IESEG report claimed.
A senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Janis Kluge, told Euractiv that “Russia’s economy is resilient because it is, for the most part, still a market economy.”
The country adjusted to the sanctions through a “decentralized effort” by “thousands of [businesses] managers” to find their ways around the restrictions and “keep things working” – thus proving to be one of the key factors behind Russia’s relative “resilience” to Western sanctions, according to Kluge.
“There were new traders popping up who specialized in importing these goods through third countries. There’s a whole industry that has appeared, which is dedicated to the circumvention of sanctions – because it’s a billion-dollar business,” he stated.
The EU adopted its 13th package of sanctions against Russia last week ahead of the second anniversary of the start of the Ukraine conflict. The measures target 106 individuals and 88 entities and also further restrict trade in technologies and components that could be used by Russia’s defense industry. Components for the development and production of unmanned aerial vehicles have also been added to the blacklist. Some of the sanctioned entities are located in third countries, such as India, China, and Türkiye.
US Army calls Russia ‘the enemy’
RT | February 27, 2024
The US Army has branded Moscow the “enemy” while promoting a newly-published manual on the Russian military on social media.
The Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate’s (CADD) new 280-page manual gives a detailed overview of Russian military strategy and tactics, and tries to predict how the country would conduct itself in future conflicts. The CADD promoted the manual in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, asking, “Do you know your enemy?”
The primary focus is on Moscow’s ground forces, which would be pitted against the US Army in a hypothetical direct war.
The document, known as ATP 7-100.1 and released last week, is part of a series that the US Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) has been developing for years. Previous publications provided similar studies of the militaries of other potential near-peer and peer opponents: North Korea, China, and Iran. The materials are not classified and intended for professional US and allied military officers.
With Russia currently involved in the Ukraine conflict, US military researchers stressed that they are still examining data gathered there and would revise their instructions accordingly. They said it was “too early to assess the structure and equipping of any Russian unit for the next 5 to 10 years” with hostilities still ongoing.
Discussing Russia’s relations with the US and its NATO allies, the manual says they are defined “by a perpetual state of competition and self interest.” The country seeks recognition as a world power and it is “highly likely” that future Russian leaders will pursue policies similar to that of the current government “for the foreseeable future,” it said; Russia will “challenge the relative position of US influence in the global order while avoiding direct confrontation with the US military.”
The Russian leadership views NATO as an instrument of American geopolitical hegemony and has called its expansion in Europe a threat to national security. The Ukraine conflict, according to Moscow, is part of a wider US-led proxy war against Russia, in which Ukrainian troops are sacrificed in the name of containment.
”The core of the problem is not in Ukraine but in those who are trying to destroy Russia with Ukrainian hands,” President Vladimir Putin said last month while visiting a military hospital. “Even though they have been pursuing this goal of tackling Russia for ages, we will sooner tackle them.”
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From the Archives
Is Israel to blame for the Iraq War?
American Goy | March 10, 2008
I am so tired of this old canard that “Israel had nothing to do with USA’s war with Iraq – in fact, it officially advised America against it”.
Bullshit. … continue
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