Russian Arctic region under drone attack – governor
RT | June 1, 2025
Russia’s Murmansk Region, located mostly north of the Arctic Circle, is being targeted by drones, local governor Andrey Chibis has said.
Air defenses have been intercepting incoming UAVs in the region, Chibis wrote on Telegram on Sunday.
“Enemy drones have attacked the territory of Murmansk Region,” he wrote.
The governor urged the population to remain calm and report all incidents to the authorities.
Also on Sunday, several drones targeted a military installation in Irkutsk Region, central Russia. Local Governor Igor Kobzev said it is the first UAV raid in Siberia.
The attack occurred in the settlement of Sredny, some 150km from Lake Baikal, Kobzev wrote on Telegram. He added that the drones were launched from a tractor-trailer. “The source from where the UAVs came had been blocked,” he said.
Kiev has significantly intensified drone raids into Russia in recent weeks, targeting Moscow and other regions. Russia has responded by launching a series of large-scale missile and UAV strikes against Ukrainian military-related infrastructure.
Russian officials suggest that the drone incursions are an attempt by Ukraine to derail a US-brokered peace process between Moscow and Kiev. The attacks in Murmansk and Irkutsk regions come a day ahead of a scheduled meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul, during which the sides are expected to discuss each other’s proposals on ways to settle the conflict.
Collapsed bridge in Russia’s Bryansk Region was blown up – governor
RT | June 1, 2025
A bridge that collapsed onto a moving passenger train in Russia’s Bryansk Region was deliberately blown up, local governor Aleksandr Bogomaz has said.
At least seven people were killed and 69 others wounded in the incident late on Saturday, according to Bogomaz.
“A bridge on a highway was blown up as a train with 388 passengers was moving under it,” the governor told the television channel Russia 24 on Sunday morning.
According to Bogomaz, all of the wounded were swiftly hospitalized following the incident. Two of the patients, including one child, remain in critical condition and will be flown to Moscow for further treatment.
A source in Russia’s law enforcement agencies told RT that, according to preliminary data, a section of the bridge collapsed on the tracks in front of the train, with the driver having no time to avoid the crash.
The driver and his assistant likely died immediately as a result of the collision, the source said.
According to RT’s interlocutor, a probe is now being carried out to determine if the incident was a terrorist attack.
Russian Federation Council member Andrey Klishas has blamed Kiev for the derailment, writing on Telegram that the incident confirmed that “Ukraine is being controlled by a terrorist group.”
“Ukraine has long lost the attributes of a state, turning into a terrorist enclave without borders, without legitimate authorities and laws,” he said.
The senator urged the creation of a vast buffer zone inside Ukrainian territory to make sure that “terrorists” are unable to reach Russia in the future.
Fyodor Lukyanov: Behind Closed Doors – The US-Russia Diplomatic Games
Glenn Diesen | May 31, 2025
Fyodor Lukyanov is Chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a Research Professor at the Higher School of Economics, Editor in Chief of the Russia in Global Affairs Journal, and the Research Director at the Valdai Discussion Club. Prof. Lukyanov outlines how the US and Russian frameworks for ending the war are coming together. Ukraine is incrementally dragged into the format, and the Europeans are ignored as they are seen to be unrealistic and unreliable.
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Hundreds Still Missing, 304 Dead After Ukrainian Raid on Russia’s Kursk Region
Sputnik – 31.05.2025
KURSK, Russia – An estimated 576 civilians who went missing during the Ukrainian invasion in the western Russian region of Kursk in August remain unaccounted for 10 months on, the region’s acting governor, Alexander Khinshtein, said on Saturday.
“The number of people whose whereabouts today, unfortunately, are unknown to us, stands at 576 at this moment. Of course, this is a very large number, but at the same time, it is accurate. It was compiled from a number of sources because, when forming our register, we based it on data from all relevant agencies,” Khinshtein told reporters.
Khinshtein held a working group meeting on the aftermath of the Ukrainian invasion and the mass disappearance of civilians, including four children. He estimated that of the 2,287 people reported missing after the invasion 1,290 had been found and the whereabouts of another 421 had been located.
The governor said that 304 civilians were confirmed to have been killed by the Ukrainian armed forces during the incursion.
“Unfortunately, as our settlements continue to be liberated, military personnel and investigators are finding evidence of the barbaric crimes committed by the Ukrainian armed forces. As of today, the death of 304 civilians has been confirmed. Most of them have been identified,” he said.
The evacuation of the bodies from the affected territories is ongoing, Khinshtein said. Volunteers have been assisting in the evacuation and the mapping of potential sites where more slain civilians may have been buried, he added.
What Did President Trump Know When President Putin’s Helicopter Came Under Ukrainian Drone Attack in Kursk?
By John Helmer | Dances With Bears | May 30, 2025
The first report came from RIA-Novosti, the Russian state news agency, on May 25 at 13:24.
“President Vladimir Putin’s helicopter (lead image, top) was in the epicentre of repelling a large-scale attack by Ukrainian Armed Forces drones during a visit to the Kursk region, said Yury Dashkin [Major General in command of the 32nd Air Defence Division , lead image, below) commander of the air defence division in whose area of responsibility the region is located. According to him, during the president’s visit, the Ukrainian military launched an ‘unprecedented attack,’ with 46 drones destroyed by the air defence system. ‘At the same time, we conducted an anti-aircraft battle and ensured the safety of the president’s helicopter flight in the air. [The helicopter was] actually in the epicentre of repelling a massive drone attack,’ Dashkin said.”
The drone attack on Kursk had taken place five days earlier, on May 20. Putin’s visit to the region, his meetings with local officials, the region governor, engineers and scientists at the Kurchatov nuclear power plant, and local medical, rescue and social welfare volunteers was not reported by the Kremlin website until the following morning. The report of the attack on the helicopter was kept secret at the time. The Kremlin has made no comment on the later press reports.
Note Gen Dashkin’s precise wording: he did not claim the President’s helicopter was targeted directly; he did not say Putin was on board at the time (the President also travelled in Kursk by motorcade); he did not reveal whether there was more than one helicopter in the presidential flight to Kursk; he did not say whether the air defence command was spoofing the electronic tracking technology which the US and the Ukrainians have been using for their drone and missile attacks in recent days.
The Kremlin pool reporter for Kommersant, Andrei Kolesnikov, reported on Putin’s movements and meetings after the 24-hour security delay. Kolesnikov noted in passing: “The situation was not cloudless: when the cortege of the president moved around the region, there were drones of the APU in the sky – they cannot be ignored on the video footage, which I saw. However, the region lives in such an environment not for the first year, as you know — so Vladimir Putin should have recognized how the region is working.”
Pick-up of the May 25 report by Newsweek of the US conceded: “This is the first known instance in which the Russian president is reported to have flown through an active drone attack.”
The magazine then adopted the Ukrainian version of what had happened. “Ukrainian officials haven’t comment on the alleged attack on Putin, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that his country has every right to kill Putin if the opportunity arises, if doing so would protect Ukraine and its people. Zelensky told The Sun in Kyiv in November 2023 that he has lost track of the number of times Moscow has attempted to assassinate him since Putin launched a full-scale invasion of his country. ‘That’s war, and Ukraine has all the rights to defend our land,’ the Ukrainian leader said when asked if Kyiv would take a chance to assassinate Putin if such an opportunity arose.”
“Zelensky is no longer in Kiev,” a Moscow source in a position to know commented this week. “He spends much of his time travelling around the world, and then in a command post in Poland. He simulates his presence in country for PR purposes. He only goes to Kiev when foreign government officials visit.” In March 2022 Putin told former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett that he would not order an assassination strike on Zelensky.
Five years later, has Zelensky made an attempt against Putin? what role are the US electronic warfare forces playing in tracking Putin’s movements and targeting his position? When Trump tweeted on May 27 that Putin is “playing with fire!” had Trump fired first – and missed?
Since the Kursk incident, the public White House log records that Trump had received his weekly intelligence briefing at 11 am on May 22, and then again at the same time on May 29. There is no record yet that Trump has responded to a reporter’s question on the incident.
What Trump knew in advance and after the Kursk incident, and what message the Kremlin is sending by revealing the details now, are discussed with Chris Cook in this Gorilla Radio broadcast from Victoria, BC, on May 28. Listen from Minute 31:55.
Source: https://gradio.substack.com/p/gorilla-radio-with-chris-cook-dave-73c — Min 31:55
Chris Cook has hosted Gorilla Radio, broadcast/webcasting since 1999. Click on the archive here; The Gorilla Radio blog is at https://gorillaradioblog.blogspot.com/ and on Telegram at https://t.me/gorillaradio2024
Ukraine faces record military desertions amid forced mobilization
Al Mayadeen | May 30, 2025
Ukraine’s military is witnessing a sharp and unprecedented rise in desertion cases, with 25,508 incidents recorded in the first five months of 2025 alone, according to data from Ukraine’s Unified State Register of Court Decisions.
If the current trend continues, the number of desertions could reach an estimated 61,000 by the end of the year.
In April 2025 alone, 6,245 soldiers deserted, marking a steep increase from 4,992 in January.
By comparison, 2024 saw 35,750 recorded desertions, nearly triple the 12,563 cases reported in 2023.
Inconsistent penalties, legal loopholes undermine discipline
The rise in Ukraine’s military desertions highlights an erosion of military discipline, compounded by legal inconsistencies.
The Pravda news website noted that while some soldiers face up to five years in prison, others return to active duty through legal loopholes or lenient judicial interpretations.
Analysts point to the pressures of forced mobilization and prolonged conflict as major contributors to the rise in desertion cases.
Ukrainian authorities have reportedly opted to turn a blind eye to discipline to avoid further reducing their fighting force, a trade-off that comes at the expense of unit cohesion and morale.
US-trained Ukrainians forces use torture techniques on Russian POWs
Al Mayadeen | May 30, 2025
Ukrainian forces have been accused of engaging in systematic torture of Russian prisoners of war (POWs), allegedly using techniques associated with US interrogation practices. The claims were presented by Maxim Grigoriev, chairman of the International Public Tribunal on the Crimes of Ukrainian Neo-Nazis, during a press conference in Moscow on Thursday, TASS reported.
Grigoriev stated that more than 200 recently exchanged Russian POWs gave testimony detailing acts of abuse, which he described as “absolutely Nazi-like”. He emphasized that the methods used bore a strong resemblance to those previously documented in US military detention facilities. “Prisoners were tortured through the simulation of drowning. Their faces were covered with cloth, and water was poured over them, an agonizing method that prevents breathing. This is American-style torture,” he said.
One of the detention rooms where the abuse allegedly took place was named “Baghdad”, a detail Grigoriev said suggests the involvement of foreign, particularly American personnel. He argued that such naming, along with the methods used, indicates “the clear involvement of American ‘specialists’.”
The alleged acts were not confined to waterboarding. According to the tribunal, additional forms of abuse included severe beatings, electrocution, burns, finger-breaking, mock executions, and dog attacks. Victims were also reportedly subjected to salt being rubbed into open wounds, gunshot wounds to the legs, and forced labor.
Graphic testimonies reveal patterns of sadistic torture
Grigoriev stated that the torture was not conducted for interrogation purposes but instead served as “pure sadism and pleasure.” He asserted, “The prisoners weren’t questioned; these acts were carried out purely out of sadism and for pleasure. It’s a systematic effort to kill people. The orders come from the highest levels, and everything is deliberate.”
These testimonies have been categorized as part of a broader, deliberate campaign of abuse that Grigoriev alleges is sanctioned by the Kiev leadership. He said the tribunal’s findings are being forwarded to international and Russian investigative bodies.
Gross violation of Geneva Convention
Grigoriev argued that these acts represent a blatant violation of international law, specifically the 1949 Geneva Convention, which mandates humane treatment of POWs. “The 1949 Geneva Convention mandates humane treatment of prisoners of war, forbidding any illegal acts or omissions that could endanger their health or cause death,” he said. “What the Kiev regime is doing constitutes a gross violation of this convention, systematic torture that is a crime against humanity. Such crimes have no statute of limitations.”
The International Public Tribunal was formed in May 2022 and claims to have collected testimony from over 1,200 individuals who say they were victims or witnesses of crimes committed by Ukrainian forces. According to Grigoriev, the tribunal comprises civil society representatives from more than 30 countries. Its reports, published online, have reportedly amassed over 86 million views.
Grigoriev stated that the tribunal’s mission is to bring global attention to “abuses by the Ukrainian military” and to submit documented evidence to relevant authorities for investigation.
Batches of prisoner exchange
It is worth noting that Russia and Ukraine last week carried out what officials described as a major prisoner exchange, marking one of the most significant humanitarian gestures between the two sides since the war began in 2022. According to a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry, each country repatriated 270 military personnel and 120 civilians, following an agreement reached during negotiations held in Istanbul on May 16.
This latest exchange is the most extensive since the war’s onset. The previous exchange occurred in August 2024, when each side released 115 prisoners of war, totaling 230 individuals.
Trump bracing for a longer Ukraine war
By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | May 30, 2025
One of the mysteries of the Ukraine endgame is that President Donald Trump did not issue an executive order on January 20 withdrawing all support for Ukraine. That would have been the easiest way to end the war.
The conditions were propitious — Candidate Trump didn’t mince words that it was a hopeless war that cost the US dearly in treasure; he thought poorly of President Volodymyr Zelensky as a shameless free rider; he saw the war as impeding his foreign-policy priority of the US’ transition to a multipolar world order; and, he felt no compulsion to inherit ‘Biden’s war’.
But instead, Trump plunged himself with gusto into the Ukraine question, although Washington lacked the means to leverage Russia to compromise on its core interests in what Russian people regarded as an existential war.
Quite possibly, some of Trump’s advisors prevailed upon him to undertake the theatrical diplomatic effort on the basis of a flawed reading of the state of play in the war. Trump believed that western sanctions lethally weakened the Russian economy; that Russia’s casualty figures ran into hundreds of thousands and such a high level of attrition was unsustainable; that Zelensky would sign up on the dotted line; that an improvement in Russian-American relationship would be a ‘win-win’ with massive economic benefits accruing to both sides and so on.
But all these premises turned out to be wrong notions. Putin has steered the economy to a state of permanent western sanctions (which was the Soviet experience, too). Russian entrepreneurs have successfully replaced the fleeing western businesses in the wake of sanctions and will now resist any re-entry by the latter.
Russia’s casualty figures are much lower than the self-serving western estimates put it, as the high level of recruitment to the army suggests. Zelensky is bent on prolonging the war with support from European powers per Biden’s script to ‘Trump-proof’ the war. Europeans not only have a Plan B but have collaborators within the US some of whom may even be in Trump’s team.
Suffice to say, Trump has been on a learning curve, as he began sensing that the Kremlin is determined to realise the objectives it had set for itself (as outlined in Putin’s historic speech last June at the foreign ministry). According to a Reuters report two days ago, “Putin wants a ‘written’ pledge by major Western powers not to enlarge the US-led NATO alliance eastwards — shorthand for formally ruling out membership to not only Ukraine and Georgia and Moldova and other former Soviet republics as well.”
“Russia also wants Ukraine to be neutral, some Western sanctions lifted, a resolution of the issue of frozen Russian sovereign assets in the West, and protection for Russian speakers in Ukraine” — per Reuters.
Europeans will scoff at such demands. Therefore, as things stand, a breakthrough at the Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul on June 2 seems unlikely. Unsurprisingly, Russia is pressing ahead with an offensive campaign in all directions, throwing in all its forces with a culmination planned for summer or early autumn.
The least bad option
Trump has three options under the circumstances. One is to simply refuse to own responsibility for the war and walk away for good. But then, can Trump deny his own part in it in his first term? While the Trump administration identified its approach to foreign policy as ‘principled realism’, late Joseph Nye’s characterisation of Trump as an “idiosyncratic realist” was perhaps closer to the truth.
The official administration policy on Ukraine during Trump’s first term was a continuation of the policy pursued by the Obama administration. It recognised Crimea as part of Ukraine, condemned Russia’s occupation and eventual annexation annexation of the peninsula; it underscored Russia’s primary responsibility for the instigation, continuation and conduct of the conflict in eastern Ukraine; it even identified the Russian interference in Ukraine as part of a wider pattern of aggression towards other states and as proof of Moscow’s challenge to the fundamental principles of international order.
For these reasons, the Trump administration maintained that the US should help Ukraine to defend itself and should penalise Russia both through sanctions and diplomatic isolation (eg., membership of the G7). Curiously, shades of this thought process resurface even today occasionally in Trump’s Truth Social outbursts. Trump seems unaware he’s carrying a can of worms as his Ukraine legacy.
So, the second option today is to convey Trump’s dissatisfaction over Russia’s perceived intransigence in dictating terms for settlement and its alleged lack of interest in peace talks. Trump even hinted at Russia’s hidden agenda to conquer Ukraine. Trump is hinting at punishing Russia both through sanctions and supplying weapons to Ukraine. German chancellor Friedrich Merz’s provocative announcement of giving long-range weapons to Zelensky was probably green lighted by some people in Trump’s team. After all, Merz is no stranger to Wall Street.
However, this is a recipe for an extremely dangerous NATO – Russia confrontation. If long range German missiles hit Russia, Russia will retaliate in a way that could potentially cripple NATO’s operational readiness in a hypothetical war. Belarus State Secretary of Security Council Alexander Volfovich has said that the Oreshnik missile system is “planned to be stationed in Belarus by the end of the year. The locations for its deployment have already been determined. Work is under way.” The spectre of World War III may seem a bit of a stretch, but Trump will have to consider the dangers of climbing the escalation ladder, which could destroy his MAGA presidency.
Washington has no means to intimidate the Kremlin. The bottom line is, Trump is actually left with only a third option, the least bad option — viz., walking away from the Ukraine conflict at this point and return when the war has been lost and won, possibly by the end of the year. This will not damage Trump’s reputation.
Trump may already be displaying his credentials as ‘peacemaker president’ if the US-Iran talks, which seem to be making progress, results in a nuclear deal. Besides, US-Russia normalisation needs more time to gain traction. Senator Lindsey Graham’s hard-hitting sanctions bill against Russia with 81 co-sponsors in the senate signals that Russia is a very toxic subject in the US domestic politics.
Also, Russia-Ukraine talks is only one track. The Russians have sensitised Trump’s team that while Moscow engages with Kiev, the root cause of the war — absence of a European security architecture — still remains to be addressed, which is something that only Russia and the US can work out jointly. The US shouldn’t shirk its responsibility, being both the original instigator of NATO expansion and sponsor of the Ukraine war.
The reaction by the US special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg has been positive when he told ABC News in an interview that the US understands that it is a matter of national security for Russia that NATO may stop accepting new Eastern European countries into its ranks — ie., not only Ukraine but Moldova and Georgia as well.
Kellogg said he considered the Russian side’s concerns to be justified. He did not rule out the possibility of reaching an agreement during negotiations between the US and Russia. This is a big step forward.
Col. Jacques Baud: Russia Pursues Military Solution as Diplomacy Fails
Glenn Diesen | May 29, 2025
Colonel Jacques Baud is a former military intelligence analyst in the Swiss Army and the author of many books. Colonel Baud argues that American indecisiveness and European irrationality have undermined negotiations, and Russia is now convinced it must pursue a military solution.
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Alleged threats to chief Russian negotiator’s family ‘outrageous’ – Kremlin
RT | May 29, 2025
Alleged threats being made against Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky and his family are “outrageous,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday, noting that authorities are already working to determine their source.
His remarks come after TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov recently stated that Medinsky – who led Russia’s delegation at the peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul earlier this month – was receiving death threats from the Ukrainian side. His family was also allegedly targeted.
Peskov called the situation “unprecedented” and said that if investigators find that threats are coming from Ukraine, it would be “utterly outrageous,” particularly as Moscow has offered to hold another round of negotiations next Monday.
According to Solovyov, the threats are coming from Ukrainian nationalists, who have even targeted Medinsky’s children. He claimed that the negotiator’s family has received messages such as “we know where your children are and we have a lot of explosive-packed scooters.”
Several terrorist attacks involving electric scooters have taken place in the past, including the December 2024 murder of Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defense Forces.
Solovyov also recalled that “there were cases when negotiators were threatened, and there were tragic cases, and they are well known.” One such case could involve Ukrainian banker Denys Kireyev, who was killed in March 2022 shortly after participating in early peace talks with Russia.
Solovyov said that Medinsky had personally discussed the issue with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who was the head of Kiev’s delegation in Istanbul. He reportedly insisted to Medinsky that the alleged threats were not coming from Ukrainian authorities.
Following Solovyov’s claims, the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin ordered the opening of a criminal case to identify the persons involved in threatening Medinsky’s family.
Moscow and Kiev have been working on their own draft memorandums outlining a path towards a peaceful settlement. Earlier this month, the two sides met for the first time since peace negotiations collapsed in 2022.
On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov proposed holding the next round of talks on Monday, June 2, in Istanbul. Umerov has responded by stating that Kiev first expects to receive Moscow’s draft memorandum so that the meeting is not “empty.”
The Media Is Falsely Labeling Ukraine-Russia Talks a ‘Failure’
By Ted Snider | The Libertarian Institute | May 28, 2025
On May 16, Russia and Ukraine held their first direct talks since the first months of the former’s invasion. Despite the pessimistic evaluation by Ukrainian and European leaders, the return to diplomacy is itself a major achievement and step forward. The talks lasted an hour and forty minutes.
Western leaders and Western media have given the first round of talks a failing grade. They have dismissed it for three reasons. They claim that Russian President Vladimir Putin first suggested direct negotiations and then did not show. They claim that he sent an insultingly low-level delegation. And they claim that nothing was accomplished.
All three of these claims are false.
Putin did suggest direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but he did not say that those talks would take place at the leadership level. Putin said, “We are proposing that Kiev resume direct negotiations without any preconditions…We offer the Kiev authorities to resume negotiations already on Thursday, in Istanbul.” Putin referred to the Kiev authorities and never to the two presidents.
It was unlikely that Russia would resume talks for the first time at the presidential level. Customarily, before presidents meet, a great deal of preparation and negotiation takes place at lower levels. Then, typically, the foreign ministers would meet to iron out most of the details prior to a presidential meeting.
It is also misleading to present the meeting as Putin not showing up while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did. Zelensky did arrive in Turkey, but he declined to agree to direct talks with Putin unless Putin first agreed to a thirty-day ceasefire, posting that “We expect Russia to confirm a ceasefire – full, lasting, and reliable – starting tomorrow, May 12th, and Ukraine is ready to meet.” Ukraine’s Head of the office of President, Andriy Yermak, confirmed, “First a ceasefire for 30 days, then everything else.” According to White House officials, Trump “never agreed” that that a ceasefire was a precondition to the direct talks.
But Zelensky’s precondition was an annulment. Russia was never going to agree to a ceasefire prior to negotiations for two reasons. First, they do not want a ceasefire empty of a settlement because that would maintain the conditions that would likely lead to future war, as happened in the ceasefire in Donbas from the end of the coup in 2014 to the start of the war in 2022. Second, they do not want a ceasefire without a settlement that would allow Ukraine to rest, regroup, rearm and dig trenches simply to return to war thirty days later like the Minsk deception that stung Russia earlier.
Russia has insisted that these negotiations resolve the “root causes” of the war. The Western media continues to deceptively define that insistence as the determination to deflate Ukraine’s sovereignty and calls it a delaying tactic. There is nothing on the historical record to suggest that Putin has ever identified that as a root cause of the war. Russia has always identified the root causes of the war as NATO’s encroachment toward their border and into Ukraine and the need for the protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
The security proposal that Russia presented to the United States and NATO in December 2021 in the days before the war had as its central point that NATO not expand to Ukraine. Then-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has confirmed that the “promise [of] no more NATO enlargement… was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine.” Ukraine’s chief negotiator in the Belarus and Istanbul talks with Russia has also said that stopping NATO from expanding to Ukraine and Russia’s borders was the “key point” for Russia and that “[e]verything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning.’” Zelensky, himself, has said that the promise not to join NATO “was the first fundamental point for the Russian Federation” and that “as far as I remember, they started a war because of this.”
Russia is not asking for something unimaginable or new. They are asking for what they were promised. Not only did NATO promise to stay out of Ukraine, but Ukraine promised to stay out of NATO. Article IX of the 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine says that Ukraine “solemnly declares its intention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs…” That promise was later enshrined in Ukraine’s constitution, which committed Ukraine to neutrality and prohibited it from joining any military alliance: that included NATO.
Russia is not going to agree to a ceasefire without resolving this root cause of the war for the same reason that it went to war to resolve it.
The second reason for giving the first round of direct talks a failing grade is that Putin sent an insultingly low-level delegation. This is not only unfair for the reasons already discussed—that initial talks are usually conducted at a low level—but also because it ignores who Putin sent to conduct the talks. The Russian delegation is led by Vladimir Medinsky, the same person who led the Istanbul talks at the beginning of the war. Those talks nearly succeeded, and the nomination of Medinsky is a signal both that Russia is serious and that Russia sees the current round of talks as a continuation of the previous round. Putin said, “It was not Russia that broke off negotiations in 2022. It was Kiev. Nevertheless, we are proposing that Kiev resume direct negotiations without any preconditions.”
The third reason is that nothing of substance was accomplished. That, too, is untrue. The very resumption of direct talks is a major breakthrough. But, beyond that, some things of substance were accomplished.
The first is an agreement to exchange 1,000 prisoners each. Though prisoner exchanges have occurred during the war, this would be the largest exchange agreed to yet. It may also represent a goodwill gesture on the part of Russia, since it has been suggested in the Ukrainian press that Ukraine may not have 1,000 Russian prisoners of war.
The second is that the two sides each agreed to present a detailed document on its vision for a ceasefire. This is a significant achievement for a first round of talks.
The third is that, once the documents are presented and discussed, Medinsky said that “we think it will be reasonable to continue our negotiations.” Agreeing on a second round of talks is another positive and significant achievement.
Undercutting the negative assessment of Western officials and Western media, the Ukrainian delegation told The Washington Post that, “despite the heated exchanges… the talks eventually became constructive.” The Russian delegation agreed that they were “satisfied” with the first meeting.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that the next round of talks could take place in mid-June, though their location is in doubt. Originally reported to be taking place in the Vatican, the Kremlin has suggested that the Vatican may not be the ideal location for two Orthodox Christian nations.
For the next round to get past the “heated exchanges” and continue to progress, key compromises will need to be made by both sides. Ukraine will have to agree not to join NATO. This is a big concession but should not be a deal breaker. Russia was promised this at the end of the Cold War, and Ukraine agreed to it during the Istanbul talks at the beginning of the war. If it was acceptable to Ukraine then, it should not be a fatal obstacle now.
In return, Russia will have to agree to real security guarantees for Ukraine. They will not agree to NATO nations as guarantors of the peace but could be open to countries from the Global South who have not sanctioned Russia or condemned its invasion of Ukraine but who also have not condoned it and would not want to see a ceasefire broken.
The West could agree to allow Ukraine to be armed, but not allow it to be armed with long-range weapons capable of striking Russia. The guarantors could agree to come to Ukraine’s aid if Russia breaks the ceasefire and attacks but not agree to come to Ukraine’s aid if they provoke Russia in hopes that they will come to Ukraine’s aid, much as China has been willing to promise Pakistan help if they are attacked but not if they irresponsibly cause the attack.
Both sides will need to make concessionary moves from their current territorial demands. Ukraine will never agree to Russia’s claim on more territory than it has conquered. Russia has hinted at some willingness to compromise on this. Russia will never agree to Ukraine’s demand to return territory to the prewar, or even pre-2014, borders. Ukrainian insistence on this condition for peace will guarantee that there will be no peace. And no peace will mean only that Ukraine will cede more territory to Russia. It is practical, then, for both sides to agree to negotiations beginning along the current line of conflict.
The recent return to direct talks between Russia and Ukraine can only be positive. And they accomplished more than the Western media and European leaders have suggested. Continued progress will require compromise and a genuine desire to build a peace that is workable and lasting.

