Blundering Into Iran
Time to tell Israel and Saudi Arabia to fight their own wars
By Philip Giraldi • Unz Review • February 27, 2018
[This article is an edited and expanded version of a memorandum that I prepared for Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity which has been released separately on Consortium News ].
The deluge of recent reporting regarding possible conflict with nuclear armed North Korea has somewhat obscured consideration of the much higher probability that Israel or even Saudi Arabia will take steps that will lead to a war with Iran that will inevitably draw the United States in. Israel is particularly inclined to move aggressively, with potentially serious consequences for the U.S., in the wake of the recent incident involving an alleged Iranian drone and the shooting down of an Israeli aircraft. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been repeatedly warning about the alleged threat along his northern border and has pledged that Israel will not be in any way restrained if there are any hostile moves directed against it. The Israeli Transportation Minister Ysrael Katz has warned that Lebanon will be blasted back into the “stone age.”
There is also considerable anti-Iran rhetoric currently coming from sources in the United States, which might well be designed to prepare the American people for a transition from a cold war type situation to a new hot war involving U.S. forces. The growing hostility towards Iran is coming out of both the Donald Trump Administration and from the governments of Israel and Saudi Arabia. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster is warning that the “time to act is now” to thwart Iran’s allegedly aggressive regional ambitions while U.S. United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley sees a “wake-up” call in the recent shooting incident involving Syria and Israel. The hostility emanating from Washington is increasing in spite of the fact that the developments in the region impact on vital U.S. national interests, nor is Iran anything like an existential threat to the United States that would mandate sustained military action.
Iran’s alleged desire to stitch together a sphere of influence consisting of an arc of allied nations and proxy forces running from its western borders to the Mediterranean Sea has been frequently cited as justification for a more assertive policy against Tehran, but that concern is certainly greatly exaggerated. Iran, with a population of more than 80 million, is, to be sure, a major regional power but militarily, economically and politically it is highly vulnerable. Its economy is struggling and there is a small but growing protest movement regarding the choices being made for government spending.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is well armed and trained, but much of its “boots on the ground” force consists of militiamen of variable quality. Its Air Force is a “shadow” of what existed under the Shah and is significantly outgunned by its rivals in the Persian Gulf, not to mention Israel. Its navy is only “green water” capable in that it consists largely of smaller vessels responsible for coastal defense supplemented by swarms of Revolutionary Guard speedboats.
When Napoleon had conquered much of continental Europe and was contemplating invading Britain in 1804 it was widely believed that England was helpless before him. But Admiral Earl St Vincent was nonplussed. He said at the time: “I do not say the French can’t come, I only say they can’t come by sea.” In a similar fashion, Iran’s apparent threat to its neighbors is in reality decisively limited by its inability to project power across the water or through the air against other states in the region that have marked superiority in both respects.
And the concern over a possibly developing “Shi’ite land bridge,” also referred to as an “arc” or “crescent,” is likewise overstated for political reasons to make the threat more credible. It ignores the reality that Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon all have strong national identities and religiously mixed populations. They are influenced and sometimes more than that by Iran, but they are not puppet states and never will be. Even Lebanon’s Hezbollah, often cited as Iran’s fifth column in that country, is not considered a reliable proxy.
Majority Shi’a Iraq, for example, is generally considered to be very friendly to Iran but it has to deal with considerable Kurdish and Sunni minorities in its governance and in the direction of its foreign policy. It will not do Iran’s bidding on a number of key issues, including its relationship with Washington, and would be unwilling to become a proxy in Tehran’s conflicts with Israel and Saudi Arabia as such a move would be extremely unpopular. Iraqi Vice President Osama al-Nujaifi, the highest-ranking Sunni in the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi government, has, for example, recently called for the demobilization of the Shi’ite Popular Mobilization Forces or militias that have been fighting ISIS because they “have their own political aspirations, their own [political] agendas. … They are very dangerous to the future of Iraq.”
A seemingly legitimate major concern driving much of the perception of an Iranian threat is the possibility that Tehran will develop a nuclear weapon somewhere down the road. Such a development is quite plausible if only from a defensive point of view as Iran has been repeatedly threatened by nuclear armed Israel and the United States, but the current Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action provides the best response to the possible proliferation problem. The U.N. inspections regime is rigorous and Iran is reported to be in compliance with the agreement. If the plan survives the attacks by the White House, there is every reason to believe that Iran will be unable to take the necessary precursor steps leading to a nuclear weapons program while the inspections continue. And it will be further limited in its options after the agreement expires in nine years because it will not be able to accumulate the necessary highly enriched uranium stocks to proceed if it should ever make the political and economic decisions to go ahead with such a program.
The recent incident involving the shoot-down of a drone alleged to be of Iranian provenance followed by the downing of an Israeli fighter by a Syrian air defense missile resulted in a sharp response from Tel Aviv, though reportedly mitigated by a warning from Russian President Vladimir Putin that anything more provocative might inadvertently involve Russia in the conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accordingly moderated his response but his government is clearly contemplating a more robust intervention to counter what he calls a developing Iranian presence in Syria. It is important to recall that Netanyahu’s prime objective in Syria and Lebanon is to have both nations in turmoil so they cannot threaten Israel. With that in mind, it is wise to be skeptical about Israeli claims regarding Iranian intentions to build bases and construct missiles in Syria. Those claims made by Israel’s Mossad have not been confirmed by any western intelligence service, not even by America’s totally corrupted and subservient CIA.
Netanyahu is also facing a trial on corruption charges and it would not be wildly off target to suggest that he might welcome a small war to change the narrative, just as Bill Clinton did when he launched cruise missiles into Afghanistan and Sudan to deflect congressional and media criticism of his involvement with Monica Lewinsky. Unfortunately, if Netanyahu does wind up being charged and going to prison his successor will likely be even more hardline.
It must be understood that the mounting Iran hysteria evident in the U.S. media and as reflected in Beltway groupthink has largely been generated by allies in the region, most notably Saudi Arabia and Israel, who nurture their own aspirations for regional political and military supremacy. There are no actual American vital interests at stake and it is past time to pause and take a step backwards to consider what those interests actually are in a region that has seen nothing but U.S. missteps since 2003. Countering an assumed Iranian threat that is no threat at all and triggering a catastrophic war would be a major mistake that would lead to a breakdown in the current political alignment of the entire Middle East. And it would be costly for the United States. Iran is not militarily formidable, but its ability to fight on the defensive against U.S. Naval and air forces is likely to be considerable, producing high casualty levels on both sides. How would the U.S. public respond if an aircraft carrier were to be sunk by a barrage of Iranian shore-to-ship missiles? And Tehran would also be able to unleash terrorist resources throughout the region, particularly endangering U.S. military and diplomats based there as well as American travelers and businesses. The terror threat might easily extend beyond the Middle East, into Europe and also within the United States while the dollar costs of a major new conflict and its aftermath could also break the bank, literally. Promoting a robust U.S. role in “regime change” for Iran as a viable military option to support objectives largely fabricated by allies would be a phony war fought for bad reasons. It is not commensurate with the threat that the Mullahs actually pose, which is minimal, and is just not worth the price either in dollars or lives.
Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is http://www.councilforthenationalinterest.org, address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is inform@cnionline.org.
Share this:
- Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
- Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window)
- Click to print (Opens in new window)
- Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
- More
- Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)
- Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)
- Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)
- Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)
- Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window)
- Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window)
- Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)
- Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
Related
February 27, 2018 - Posted by aletho | Timeless or most popular, Wars for Israel | Iran, Israel, United States
1 Comment »
Leave a Reply Cancel reply
This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.
Featured Video
Media, health officials should ‘just tell the truth’ about COVID shots for kids, says Vinay Prasad, M.D.
For more videos go to the Aletho News – Video Category
or go to
Aletho News Archives – Video-Images
Film Review
New movie halted because bad guys are Ukrainians
RT | June 24, 2022
The release of Guy Ritchie’s £125-million spy comedy Operation Fortune has been delayed a second time in order to remove the villains’ Ukrainian nationalities, the Daily Mail reported on Wednesday. Initially set to be released last January, the film is now scheduled for release later this year.
The offending characters are a group of Ukrainian gangsters who have purchased a deadly weapon, which the film’s heroes have to retrieve to foil their evil scheme. Sources told the Mail the gangsters’ characters have been edited so that they are no longer Ukrainian.
While there are “many bad guys in the film” and “the antagonists come from all over the world,” a source close to the production told the Mail that “out of sensitivity to the ongoing war in Ukraine it was decided some of these should no longer be identified as Ukrainian.”
It’s not clear how much editing this required – the film’s trailer features one of the main characters boasting that he can “get inside the Ukrainians.” The revised release date in March was yanked “without explanation” by distributors STX when Russian forces entered Ukraine on February 24, and no definite date has yet been set for the Operation Fortune’s global theatrical release.
Blog Roll
Visits Since December 2009
- 5,778,507 hits
Looking for something?
Archives
Calendar
Categories
Aletho News Civil Liberties Corruption Deception Economics Environmentalism Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism Fake News False Flag Terrorism Full Spectrum Dominance Illegal Occupation Mainstream Media, Warmongering Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity Militarism Progressive Hypocrite Russophobia Science and Pseudo-Science Solidarity and Activism Subjugation - Torture Supremacism, Social Darwinism Timeless or most popular Video War Crimes Wars for IsraelTags
9/11 Afghanistan Africa AIPAC al-Qaeda Argentina Australia BBC Benjamin Netanyahu Brazil Canada Central Intelligence Agency China CIA CNN Colombia Covid-19 COVID-19 Vaccine Da’esh Donald Trump Egypt European Union Facebook FBI France Gaza Germany Google Hamas Hebron Hezbollah Hillary Clinton Human rights India Iran Iraq ISIS Israel Israeli settlement Japan Jerusalem Joe Biden Korea Latin America Lebanon Libya Middle East National Security Agency NATO New York Times North Korea NSA Obama Pakistan Palestine Qatar Russia Sanctions against Iran Saudi Arabia Syria The Guardian Turkey Twitter UAE UK Ukraine United Nations United States USA Venezuela Washington Post West Bank Yemen YouTube ZionismRecent Comments
brianharryaustralia on “Polio Outbreak” – The WHO, Bi… brianharryaustralia on Microsoft Says Russian Media P… Vlad the truerer on Microsoft Says Russian Media P… 5 dancing shlomos on Pfizer Classified Almost All S… The stinkin' Limey on The UK is Doing Its Best to St… 5 dancing shlomos on “Polio Outbreak” – The WHO, Bi… Black Roc Sux on Argentina Requests BRICS … brianharryaustralia on “Polio Outbreak” – The WHO, Bi… Martin Stutchfield on Twitter bans epidemiologist Dr… brianharryaustralia on BRITISH “WATCHDOG” JOURNALISTS… brianharryaustralia on Twitter bans epidemiologist Dr… brianharryaustralia on Iran Dismisses ‘Ridiculous’ Al…
Aletho News
- French Elections, Round 2: What Actually Happened? June 25, 2022
- “Polio Outbreak” – The WHO, Bill Gates, emergency vaccines & more of the same June 24, 2022
- ACIP discussed Moneypox drugs and vaccines at yesterday’s meeting and were lied to about both by CDC June 24, 2022
- BRITISH “WATCHDOG” JOURNALISTS UNMASKED AS LAP DOGS FOR THE SECURITY STATE June 24, 2022
- Twitter bans epidemiologist Dr. Andrew Bostom who linked to vaccine-sperm study June 24, 2022
- @diedsuddenly Dies Suddenly June 24, 2022
- New York Times complains that Big Tech may censor less “election misinformation” during the 2022 midterms June 24, 2022
- Twitter hires ‘alarming number’ of ex-spies – investigation June 24, 2022
- Colombia elects 1st leftist president in its history: A great supporter of Palestine June 24, 2022
- Iran Dismisses ‘Ridiculous’ Allegations of Planned Attacks on Israelis in Turkey June 24, 2022
- Russian forces encircle thousands as Ukrainian troops begin surrender June 24, 2022
- The UK is Doing Its Best to Stir a Food Crisis While Pinning the Blame on Russia June 24, 2022
- Argentina Requests BRICS Membership June 24, 2022
- Media, health officials should ‘just tell the truth’ about COVID shots for kids, says Vinay Prasad, M.D. June 24, 2022
- Pfizer Classified Almost All Severe Adverse Events During COVID Vaccine Trials ‘Not Related to Shots’ June 23, 2022
- Ivermectin Study’s Negative Conclusion is at Odds With Its Findings of Significant Clinical Benefit June 23, 2022
- BRICS nations urge nuclear disarmament June 23, 2022
- Israel Murders Iranians While Biden Kills the Iran Deal June 23, 2022
OffGuardian
Richie Allen
- NHS Reinstates The Word Women Into Guidance June 20, 2022
- Lockdowns Have Scarred Young People In Ireland June 20, 2022
- World Swimming Bans Transgender Swimmers From Women’s Races June 20, 2022
- Tom Hanks: “I Couldn’t Play A Gay Guy Today And Rightly So!” June 16, 2022
Consent Factory
- The Federal Republic of New Normal Germany June 20, 2022
If Americans Knew
Not A Lot Of People Know That
- Sri Lanka Food Shortages Due To Fertiliser Ban, (Not Putin) June 24, 2022
- Biden Got the Energy Market He Wanted June 23, 2022
- Offshore Wind Farms Still Being Subsidised Under CfD, Despite Higher Market Prices June 23, 2022
- Santon Downham–Records Built On Sand June 22, 2022
No Tricks Zone
Sebastian Rushworth M.D.
- Can drinking water help with weight loss? June 22, 2022
More Links
Contact:
atheonews (at) gmail.comDisclaimer
This site is provided as a research and reference tool. Although we make every reasonable effort to ensure that the information and data provided at this site are useful, accurate, and current, we cannot guarantee that the information and data provided here will be error-free. By using this site, you assume all responsibility for and risk arising from your use of and reliance upon the contents of this site.
This site and the information available through it do not, and are not intended to constitute legal advice. Should you require legal advice, you should consult your own attorney.
Nothing within this site or linked to by this site constitutes investment advice or medical advice.
Materials accessible from or added to this site by third parties, such as comments posted, are strictly the responsibility of the third party who added such materials or made them accessible and we neither endorse nor undertake to control, monitor, edit or assume responsibility for any such third-party material.
The posting of stories, commentaries, reports, documents and links (embedded or otherwise) on this site does not in any way, shape or form, implied or otherwise, necessarily express or suggest endorsement or support of any of such posted material or parts therein.
The word “alleged” is deemed to occur before the word “fraud.” Since the rule of law still applies. To peasants, at least.
Fair Use
This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more info go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
DMCA Contact
This is information for anyone that wishes to challenge our “fair use” of copyrighted material.
If you are a legal copyright holder or a designated agent for such and you believe that content residing on or accessible through our website infringes a copyright and falls outside the boundaries of “Fair Use”, please send a notice of infringement by contacting atheonews@gmail.com.
We will respond and take necessary action immediately.
If notice is given of an alleged copyright violation we will act expeditiously to remove or disable access to the material(s) in question.
All 3rd party material posted on this website is copyright the respective owners / authors. Aletho News makes no claim of copyright on such material.
An important and depressing read. All roads lead ultimately to Tel Aviv and the rabid, deranged Satanyahu. The U.S. is powerless to control its own destiny — so entangled is it in its supposed alliance with the political/militant Zionist entity so-called Israel. Can it really be that there are no sane realists in any position of power and influence in ZioOccupied WashDC?…unfortunately, the answer is yes, and it is written every day with ever-increasing urgency and the potential for a conflagration from which only Zionists and wealthy banker-Jews could profit. Stay tuned.
And the Palestinians, especially, suffer on and on and on in ways truly indescribable….
LikeLike