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Whither US Oil Production?

By Paul Homewood | Not A Lot Of People Know That | March 13, 2022

This single chart from the US EIA explains just why oil prices are shooting up there:

chart(1)

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/

The oil boom initiated by Trump saw crude oil output increase by a half between 2016 and 2019.

Output naturally collapsed in early 2020 as a result of the pandemic, which affected both supply and demand. But since then output has only slowly recovered, and is still 9% below 2019 levels.

It is worth pointing out that demand in 2021 was still not back to 2019 levels. Assuming it recovers this year, it is likely to put further upward pressure on prices, unless production increases as well.

To put the numbers into perspective, the US produces a sixth of the world’s crude oil. The increase in US output between 2016 and 2019 was 205 million tonnes, and represents 5% of global output.

Small changes in supply have a disproportionate effect on international oil prices, because demand is so inelastic. An extra 5% on world production would have a significant impact on prices.

March 15, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity | , | 3 Comments

Oil price hikes hit poor countries the hardest

By Vijay Jayaraj | American Thinker | March 13, 2022

The fighting in Ukraine has intensified with Russian forces showing no signs of retreating and residents are fleeing cities.

What does this have to do with the lives of billions of people living far away from the war? Oil price increases.

The conflict has caused an increase in international oil prices, which have now crossed $130 per barrel, a 13-year high. As a result, gas prices at pumps across the globe are set to rise even further.

Being the largest consumers of automobile fuels, motorists in the U.S. and Europe are feeling significant economic pain. However, the situation is far more serious for populations of developing countries who have a much smaller buffer against life-threatening deprivation.

Take Nigeria, for example, the largest economy in Africa with $514 billion GDP. Neither the size of the economy nor the presence of crude reservoirs was sufficient to protect the country from the price shock. Nigerians already were grappling with a month-long fuel shortage due to quality-related import restrictions. While government subsidies soften the effect on users of gasoline, there is no such support for diesel.

Diesel is selling for 625 naira per liter in Lagos and Abuja, 30 percent higher than two weeks ago. Diesel prices are expected to touch 650 soon and are disrupting everyday lives. Nigeria is infamous for its energy poverty, with only 40 percent of the country’s 193 million population having access to electricity. The rising fuel costs will force many more millions into energy poverty.

In the neighboring West African country of Ghana, which is a net exporter of oil, fuel prices have risen dramatically in the first quarter and are affecting all kinds of businesses. For a country that is already in an ongoing economic crisis caused by debt distress, rising gasoline and diesel prices have become a nightmare.

Though Ghana exports high-quality crude, it has inadequate refinery capacity to convert domestic oil into finished petroleum products. Like Nigeria, it depends on imports of refined products. Currently, 80 percent of all finished petroleum products are imported. Inflation rates will be driven up by fuel prices that may increase by 6 percent, sending households into further chaos in what was originally supposed to be the fastest growing major economy in Africa.

In Asia, less-developed economies that were caught up with the decade-long green movement failed to invest in fossil-fuel technology and now face extraordinary import bills due to the rise in international crude prices.

Last month, Thailand’s inflation rose to its highest level in 13 years at 5.28 percent. Speaking to Al Jazeera, the chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council said: “The geopolitical situation, global inflation, the pandemic – Thailand still has a high number of cases – and freight costs are still very high. All of that is certain to damage our growth.”

Neighboring Philippines is in murky waters as well, with gasoline prices set to rise by 11 Phillipine pesos and eventually increase by a further 20 pesos by the end of March. A record high of 100 pesos per liter for gasoline will send small businesses and households into great distress.

In the abstract, the victims of higher energy prices are economic growth and the long-running fight against poverty, which translates into harder lives for billions of people struggling to fend off malnutrition and disease.

A simple solution would be to reverse anti-fossil fuel policies that cause shortages and to make the well-being of citizens the first priority.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Va., and holds a Master’s degree in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia, England. He resides in Bengaluru, India.

March 15, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity | | Leave a comment

DHS increases efforts to identify “misinformation” and “conspiracy theories” on social media

By Dan Frieth | Reclaim The Net | March 14, 2022

Last Spring, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas ordered an internal review to identify how to best detect, prevent, and respond to threats related to domestic violent extremism within the department.

A component of this was based on online activity. “DVE [domestic violent extremist] attackers often radicalize independently by consuming violent extremist material online and mobilize without direction from a violent extremist organization, making detection and disruption difficult,” the unclassified initial report stated.

The report (obtained here) said that extremists, “exploit a variety of popular social media platforms, smaller websites with targeted audiences, and encrypted chat applications to recruit new adherents, plan and rally support for in-person actions, and disseminate materials that contribute to radicalization and mobilization to violence.”

One of the recommendations is to increase “efforts to better identify and evaluate mis- dis- and mal-information (MDM) with a homeland security nexus, including false or misleading conspiracy theories spread on social media and other online platforms that endorse violence.”

While not directly stated, it was inferred that the DHS was in some way monitoring online activity. Obviously, some privacy and free speech concerns were raised.

And now, this month, the DHS has released a report with the findings of the review.

We obtained a copy of the report for you here.

“Every day, the more than 250,000 dedicated public servants at DHS work to ensure the safety and security of communities across our country. To ensure we are able to continue executing our critical mission with honor and integrity, we will not tolerate hateful acts or violent extremist activity within our Department,” said Mayorkas.

“The findings of this internal review highlight key steps that our Department will continue to take with urgency to better prevent, detect, and respond to potential internal threats related to domestic violent extremism, and protect the integrity of our mission.”

The report stated its previous report had highlighted that topics such as allegations of fraud in the 2020 election and “conspiracy theories” around Covid-19 would be worth focusing on, adding that the initial report last Spring said that these topics “will almost certainly spur some [domestic violent extremists] [sic] to try to engage in violence this year.”

Much of the focus of the DHS has been internal. Among the recommendations is the creation of a department-wide system for investigating and reporting cases related to internal domestic violent extremism.

The report states that the DHS should, when vetting personnel, “explore expanding the use of publicly available information, including social media… to identify or investigate potential violent extremist activity within the DHS workforce.”

It adds, “Studies and pilots have suggested that certain online activity may represent behavior of potential concern to national security and could be useful in assessing an individual’s trustworthiness, judgment, or reliability.”

The document further adds that the “DHS must continue to examine the use of social media and other PAEI [Publicly Available Electronic Information], including within the scope of personnel security vetting, to enhance the Department’s security posture in preventing and detecting violent extremist activity.”

The report also pays lip service to civil liberties, adding that it’s “critical that any study or implementation of social media monitoring is pursued deliberately to protect the privacy, civil rights, and civil liberties of all individuals,” – but doesn’t say how this can be achieved.

The department has already started implementing the recommendations, including updating its employees’ training modules.

March 15, 2022 Posted by | Civil Liberties, Full Spectrum Dominance | | 3 Comments

ARE WE DOING MORE HARM THAN GOOD?

The Highwire with Del Bigtree | March 10, 2022

Dr. Peter A. McCullough joins Del in studio for a dive into the science of vaccinating for Covid, vaccinating your children for Covid, and the risks and benefits. Is the risk worth the benefit? Are we doing more harm than good?

March 15, 2022 Posted by | Science and Pseudo-Science, Video | , | Leave a comment

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