Aletho News


Pentagon’s prediction of ‘inevitable’ conflict with China shows war is America’s primary ‘export’

By Drago Bosnic | January 31, 2023

For a country constantly chest-thumping about the size of its economy, the United States is remarkably over-reliant on one form of “export” – war. For decades, the American-led political West used proxy wars to hurt its geopolitical adversaries. While most of these weren’t a direct existential threat to US rivals and were relatively limited in scope, recent years brought a major shift to this strategic approach.

Washington DC has become more bellicose than at any point in its history, aggressively attacking the very heartlands of its opponents. In the case of Russia and China, the only reason America isn’t directly attacking either of the superpowers is their ability to immediately “return the favor.” And yet, the US keeps fanning up conflicts that are pushing the world ever closer toward another global conflict.

Ukraine and Taiwan are the two most prominent examples of America’s strategy of “accelerated escalation”, obviously designed to cause “irrational decision-making” in both Moscow and Beijing, according to the Pentagon-funded RAND Corporation. With Ukraine reaching a boiling point and Russia forced to intervene, Washington DC is determined to do the same with China in Taiwan. In recent years, top American officials, including several military commanders, have been warning about the “inevitability of war with China”.

However, the latest statement is quite concerning, issued in the form of a memo by an active four-star general and circulated with an official order. This is particularly dangerous, especially when taking into account the fact that the general took the step of conveying it through the official chain of command. According to NBC News, General Mike Minihan sent it to his subordinate officers:

“A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing ‘a clip’ at a target, and ‘aim for the head’. In the memo sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, ‘I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.'”

According to various sources, the US Air Force general commands approximately 50,000 US servicemen and nearly 500 planes, making his comments all the more concerning. This is particularly true when taking into account that USAF is in direct control of two arms of America’s thermonuclear triad – its land-based ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) and nuclear-armed strategic bombers.

Perhaps the most alarming part of the grisly prediction is that it instructed commanders under him to “consider their personal affairs and whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal office to ensure they are legally ready and prepared.” Minihan claims this is because China is allegedly “determined to make a move” against its breakaway island province of Taiwan within the next two years and that this would trigger a direct US military response.

He further called for “a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain.” Minihan also issued an order that all steps in preparation for war with China were to be reported to him directly by February 28. As to why he thinks this is “inevitable” by 2025, NBC claims he stated the following:

“Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be ‘distracted,’ and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan.”

The wording is quite concerning, especially when coming from a high-level military commander. General Minihan directed all Air Mobility Command personnel to “fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.” Using such phrases when talking about the “coming war” with a nuclear-armed China is unwise, to say the least, not to mention the complete disregard for the most basic diplomatic etiquette. Additionally, China’s conventional capabilities are very different in comparison to just a decade ago. Beijing has invested heavily in technological advances that rival or even surpass America’s, particularly hypersonic weapons, in which Washington DC significantly lags behind.

Still, China has spent decades trying to resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully, especially through close economic ties with the island, but the US has been undermining these efforts, particularly in recent years. Beijing’s attempts to achieve nonviolent political reunification with Taiwan have been severely compromised by American arms deliveries, with Taipei spending dozens of billions on weapons, most of which haven’t even been delivered due to the current US focus on Ukraine. China has been warning Washington DC against fomenting the independence ambitions of its breakaway island province. However, the US hasn’t only ignored this, but it seems it’s already planning yet another war with another superpower.

Drago Bosnic is an independent geopolitical and military analyst.

January 31, 2023 - Posted by | Militarism |

1 Comment »

  1. Permanent war, permanent revolution represents the core ideology that drives current day Anglo-American imperialists. Ironically it was Leon Trotsky who distinguished himself with ambitions for world hegemony. Trotsky differentiated himself from Stalin’s nationalistic intentions as a globalist with an eye on provoking permanent wars that would satisfy his notion of keeping Russia in a state of permanent revolution. Fellow travelers such as Germany’s Leon Strauss taught Trotsky’s geopolitical beliefs to his students while a professor at Chicago University. His students included several future government officials who would represent the core of US foreign policy during the Reagan-Bush, Clinton, W. Bush and Obama presidencies. Trump’s presidency represented a temporary break from US permanent wars but once Trump was removed the oligarchy resumed its permanent war policy by taking a chapter from Zbigniew Brezinsky’s book that called for US/NATO forces to arm its proxy Ukraine, for a permanent war of attrition against Russia until Russia bled white and was ready to admit defeat. Such a utopian scenario as this will never occur. What will occur instead if NATO persist with its delusions of grandeur, is thermonuclear world war three unless all men of goodwill commit to uniting behind a policy of peace through development and security guarantees for all nations. This new international architecture has been proposed by Helga Zepp-LaRouche, Chairman of the Schiller Institute. Schiller Institute has been organizing broad based support for an immediate cease fire and to bring the warring parties to the negotiating table. Brazil’s Lula, Pope Francis, and Turkey’s Erdogan have offered to host peace negotiations. We need to see a multitude of like efforts for peace to breakout. Otherwise the purveyors of conflict will get their way. And all mankind will perish from the earth. This we must not allow. Through mobilization efforts by the Schiller Institute and its sister organization in the US, The LaRouche Organization, TLO, we can generate the level of support necessary to prevent nuclear war and support for new security and development guarantees for all nations. The global South is ready for it. China, India, Russia are too. Our problem is the US and its Anglo partner. How we are able to outflank them will determine if we will live in a future of peaceful development or nuclear annihilation. We have an international conference this Saturday you should attend. Please go to the Schiller Institute website for details.


    Comment by Thomas L Simpson | February 2, 2023 | Reply

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