US-Iran ‘Calibrated Escalation’ Risks Sliding Into All-Out War – Expert
By Ekaterina Blinova – Sputnik – 08.05.2026
A “calibrated escalation” is likely to follow the overnight US-Iran clash in the Strait of Hormuz, veteran war correspondent Elijah J. Magnier tells Sputnik.
“Return to full-scale war remains possible, but neither side appears eager for an immediate all-out confrontation,” Magnier says.
“What is more likely in the near term is a continuation of calibrated escalation, which means maritime incidents, allies being attacked, cyber operations, targeted strikes, and limited exchanges designed to impose pressure without triggering a wider or regional war.”
Both sides assess different forms of leverage, according to the pundit:
- The US can escalate vertically by deploying additional military forces and intensifying confrontation
- Iran can escalate horizontally by widening pressure geographically and economically without engaging in direct confrontation
- Both sides show restraint, but prolonged escalation increases the risk of miscalculation
“Therefore, one strike causing mass casualties, damage to strategic energy infrastructure, or a direct attack on senior leadership — such as targeted assassinations — could rapidly push both sides beyond the current threshold,” Magnier warns.
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