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U.S. ups the ante: are we indeed headed into WWIII and what can save us?

Gilbert Doctorow | September 9, 2022

The UK and Commonwealth may be mourning the passing of Queen Elizabeth II yesterday. I am in mourning as well, but for a very different reason: the gathering in the Ramstein air base in Germany yesterday reshuffled the deck on Western military and financial assistance to Ukraine, raising contributions to the ongoing holy crusade against Russia from still more nations and adding new, still more advanced precision strike weapons to the mix of deliveries to Kiev. It was an open summons to the Kremlin to escalate in turn, as were the test firing the same day of a new intercontinental rocket, the Minuteman III, from Vandenberg air base in California and the unannounced visit to Kiev yesterday of not only Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was featured in Western media accounts, but also other top officials of the Biden administration. The most notorious member of this delegation was surely Blinken’s deputy, Victoria Nuland, who had stage managed the February 2014 coup that put in power in Kiev the Russia-hating regime that Zelensky now heads.

The Russians may be compelled to take the bait due to the course of military action on the ground. As now becomes clear, they have just suffered some losses in very heavy ground and artillery fighting these past few days around Kharkov. The Ukrainian gains were facilitated by the advanced weaponry recently arrived from NATO countries, by the targeting data they are receiving from the U.S. and from off-stage tactical direction from NATO officers. By ‘take the bait,’ I mean the Russians may escalate to all out war on Ukraine. This question figured prominently in yesterday’s major news and political talk show programs of Russian state television. I will go into these matters in some detail below.

Regrettably, all of the foregoing also obliges me to revisit the critique I published a couple of weeks ago on the latest essay in Foreign Affairs magazine by John Mearsheimer. His overarching message on the dangers of our stumbling into a nuclear war is better substantiated by the latest developments, even though I believe that Mearsheimer failed to identify the several successive steps that lie ahead before we find ourselves in such a war. Mearsheimer oversimplified Russian options to deal with setbacks on the ground. This also will be a central issue in my narrative below.

Finally, in this essay I will direct attention to the second dimension of the ongoing confrontation between Russia and the entire Collective West:  the economic war being waged on the Russian Federation via sanctions, which now far outnumber those directed against any other country on earth. This war, as I will argue, is going well for the Russians. More importantly for us all, it is the sole area in which the peoples of Europe may have a say in putting an end to the mad policies being pursued by their national governments under the direct pressure of Washington.

*****

Over the past ten days, we have witnessed the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive which was preceded by so much anticipation in Western media. A reversal of Russian fortunes in the war was predicted, leading to the stalemate or outright defeat for Russia which Mearsheimer and some other analysts in the US foreign policy community feared would trigger a nuclear response from the Kremlin.

In fact, the Ukrainian counter-offensive got off to a very bad start. It opened in the south, in the Kherson region.  Kherson, which is predominantly Russian-speaking, was the first major Ukrainian city to fall to the Russians and it has strategic importance for ensuring Russian domination of the Black Sea littoral.  However, first results of the Ukrainian attacks there were disastrous for the Ukrainian armed forces. It soon was obvious that they had deployed new recruits who had little or no military experience. The infantry attacked across open terrain where they were easily destroyed in vast numbers by the Russian defenders of Kherson. I have heard the figure of 5,000 Ukrainian casualties in the Kherson counter offensive. Obviously the Russians were jubilant, though there were reports of some Ukrainian reservists being withdrawn from the field of action for redeployment elsewhere.

What followed was something the Russians evidently did not expect, namely a well prepared and implemented assault on their positions around the northeastern city of Kharkov, Ukraine’s second largest city. Kharkov was briefly surrounded by Russian forces at the start of the war, but was left in relative peace as the Russians refocused their strategy on taking the Donbas and avoiding major urban warfare except in one place, Mariupol. Exactly what the Russian game plan has been was recently explained in a remarkable paper published by a certain ‘Marinus’ in the Marine Corps Gazette. 

A couple of days ago I picked up the following amidst the chatter of panelists on Evening with Vladimir Solovyov: “yes, we made some mistakes, but it is inevitable in a war that mistakes are made.” As from the latest news on the apparent loss of Balakliya and surrounding villages on the outskirts of Kharkov, we can see that the Ukrainian tactics were precisely those which Russia had been using so effectively against them from day one of the ‘special military operation,’ namely a feint in one war zone followed by all-out attack on a very different region. Of course, the ‘feint’ around Kherson, if that is what it was, entailed the cynical sacrifice of thousands of young and not so young Ukrainian foot soldiers. But the resultant distraction prevented the Russians from bringing up sufficient manpower to successfully defend their positions around Kharkov, which include the strategically important city of Izyum.

Izyum is close to the Russian-Ukrainian border southeast of Kharkov and is a major logistical base for munitions and weaponry that are sent onward to support the Donbas operation. The latest information on the Russian side appears to be that the Russians have now dispatched large numbers of reservists to this area to hold their positions. They also speak of intense artillery duels. We may well assume that both sides have experienced heavy loss of life. As yet, the outcome is unforeseeable. Meanwhile, Russian war correspondents on the ground in Donetsk insist that the Russian advance towards Slavyansk, in the center of the former Donetsk oblast, is continuing without pause, which suggests that the strikes on their munitions stores claimed by the Ukrainians have not been totally effective. If Slavyansk is taken in the coming few weeks, then Russia will quickly assume control of the entire territory of the Donbas.

In last night’s talk show program, host Vladimir Solovyov said that this latest push in the Ukrainian counter-offensive was timed to coincide with the gathering at the Ramstein air base, Germany of top officials from NATO and other allies under the direction of the visiting U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. If the Ukrainian efforts were failing in the field, then the cry would go up: we must provide them with more weapons and training. And if the Ukrainian efforts in the counter-offensive were succeeding, those in attendance at Ramstein would hear exactly the same appeal to aid Kiev.

Though Evening with Solovyov, on air from about 23.00 Moscow time, offered viewers some few minutes of video recordings from the opening of the Ramstein gathering, far more complete coverage was provided to Russian audiences a few hours earlier by the afternoon news show Sixty Minutes. Here, nearly half an hour on air was given over to lengthy excerpts from CNN and other U.S. and European mainstream television reporting about Ramstein. Host Yevgeni Popov read the Russian translation of the various Western news bulletins. His presentation clearly sought to dramatize the threat and to set off alarm bells.

For his part, Vladimir Solovyov went beyond presentation of the threat posed by the United States and its allies to analysis of Russia’s possible response. He spoke at length, and we may assume that what he was saying had the direct approval of the Kremlin, because his guests, who are further removed from Power than he is, were, for the most part, allowed only to talk blather, such as the critique by one panelist of a recent pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia article in The New York Review of Books by Yale professor Timothy Snyder, who counts for nothing in the big strategic issues Russia faces today.

So, what did Solovyov have to say? First, that Ramstein marked a new stage in the war, because of the  more threatening nature of the weapons systems announced for delivery, such as missiles with accuracy of 1 to 2 meters when fired from distances of 20 or 30 kilometers thanks to their GPS-guided flight, in contrast to the laser-guided missiles delivered to Ukraine up till now. In the same category, there are weapons designed to destroy the Russians’ radar systems used for directing artillery fire. Second, that Ramstein marked the further expansion of the coalition or holy crusade waging war on Russia. Third, that in effect this is no longer a proxy war but a real direct war with NATO and should be prosecuted with appropriate mustering of all resources at home and abroad.

Said Solovyov, Russia should throw off constraints and destroy the Ukrainian dual use infrastructure which makes it possible to move Western weapons across the country to the front. The railway system, the bridges, the electricity generating stations all should become fair targets. Moreover, Kiev should no longer be spared missile strikes and destruction of the ministries and presidential apparatus responsible for prosecution of the war. I note that these ideas were aired on the Solovyov program more than a month ago but then disappeared from view while the Russians were making great gains on the ground. The latest setbacks and the new risks associated with the Western policies set out at Ramstein bring them to the surface again.

Solovyov also argued that Russia should now use in Ukraine its own most advanced weapons that have similar characteristics to what NATO is delivering to the other side. As a sub-point, Russia should consider neutralizing in one way or another the GPS guidance for U.S. weapons. Of course, if this means destroying or blinding the respective U.S. satellites, that would mean crossing a well-known U.S. red line or casus belli.

Next, in the new circumstances, Russia should abandon its go-it-alone policy and actively seek out complementary weapons systems from previously untouchable countries, such as Iran and North Korea. Procurements from both have till now been minimal. On this issue, a couple of panelists with military expertise were allowed to explain that both these countries have sophisticated and proven weapons that could greatly assist Russia’s war effort. Iran has unbeatable drones which carry hefty explosive charges and have proven their worth in operations that are unmentionable on public television. And North Korea has very effective tanks and highly portable field artillery which are both fully compatible with Russian military practice, because the designs were based on Chinese weapons, which in turn were copies of Russia’s own. These weapons also have shown their worth in the hands of unnamed purchasers in the Middle East. Moreover, North Korea has a vast store of munitions fully compatible with Russian artillery. It was also mentioned in passing that insofar as Kiev has mobilized in the field many Western mercenaries and covert NATO officers, Russia should also recruit from abroad, as for example, whole brigades from North Korea available for hire.

If any of these ideas put out by Solovyov last night are indeed implemented by the Kremlin, then the present confrontation in and over Ukraine will truly become globalized, and we have the outlines of what may be called World War III. However, I note that the use of nuclear weapons, tactical or otherwise, does not figure at all in the set of options that official Moscow discusses in relation to the challenges it faces in its Ukraine operation. Such a possibility would arise only if the NATO forces being sent to the EU’s ‘front line states’ grew in number by several times those presently assigned and appeared to be preparing to invade Russia.

*****

Before Ramstein, before the news of Ukrainian successes on the ground in the Kharkov sector, I had plans to write about a very different development this past week that coincided with a different calendar: the end of summer vacations and return to work of our national governments. With the return, our presidents and prime ministers would finally have to address the critical state of the European economies, which are facing the highest inflation rates in decades and an energy crisis brought about by the sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons. Speculation was rife on what exactly they would do.

I was particularly struck by several articles in the 7 September edition of The Financial Times and planned to comment on them.

For months now, the FT has been the voice of Number 10, Downing Street, at the vanguard of the Western crusade to crush Russia. Their editorial board has consistently backed every proposal for sanctions against Russia, however hare-brained. And yet on the 7th their journalists ran away with the show and cast doubt on the basic assumptions held by their bosses. One article by Derek Brower in the “FT Energy Source” newsletter has the self-explanatory title “The price cap idea that could worsen the energy crisis.” As we saw today, Brower’s concern was misplaced:  finally, the EU could not agree a price cap policy. This notion, promoted from the United States by none other than the Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, is in full contradiction with the practices of the global hydrocarbon market, as even a few EU leaders understood, depriving the initiators from the Baltic States of their hoped for consensus.

Another article of the 7th in FT, by Valentina Pop, Europe Express Editor, analyzed quickly and competently the problems facing European policy-makers in their bid to alleviate the pain to households and industry that the latest electricity and heating bills would otherwise present, given that they are several times higher than just a year ago and are unaffordable by large swathes of the population. Pop identified the key issue thus: how to provide aid quickly to those most in need given the constraints and resources available to the various government bureaucracies: “Some capitals will take many months in determining which households require help” she says. Of course, ‘many months’ of patience in the broad population will not be there.

But the most surprising article in this collection from the  7th was in the “Opinion Lex” section of the paper which was nominally about how Russian banks have weathered the storm that broke out when the EU sanctions on their industry first were laid down shortly after the start of Russia’s ‘special military operation.’ Indeed, VTB and other major Russian banks have returned to profitability despite it all. The author finds that ‘sanctions are biting less than western politicians hoped.’ Not only did the expected banking crisis not materialize, but the ruble is at five-year peaks and inflation is falling. Moreover the official Russian financial data behind these generalizations is said to be sound by independent and trustworthy market observers. The key conclusions are saved for last: “Russia has shown it can bear the pain of western sanctions. Western Europe must endure reprisals as robustly, or concede a historic defeat.’ The ‘reprisals’ in question are the complete shutdown of Russian gas deliveries through Nord Stream I until Europe lifts its sanctions.

It is interesting that even the Opinion article by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg published on the 7th in FT carries the following grim warning: “We face a difficult six months, with the threat of energy cuts, disruptions and perhaps even civil unrest.’ [emphasis mine]

To be sure, here and there in Europe, there are a few clever administrators who find promising solutions to the pending crisis of energy bills. In her first day in office, Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced one such solution:  to immediately freeze the maximum energy bill per household at the present level of 2500 pounds sterling per year and then to turn around and agree with the power companies a subsidy for them to cover their losses.

This is fine for nipping in the bud possible ‘civil unrest.’ But the question remains how Britain will finance the estimated 150 billion pounds this will cost in the first year alone. If a similar solution were approved in the EU, the overall cost would surely approach the 800 billion euros of assistance borrowed to cover losses attributable to the Covid pandemic a year ago. But whereas the Covid aid was financed by collective borrowing of the EU, no such solidarity is likely to deal with the energy crisis, given that Germany, the Netherlands and other northern Member States oppose this becoming a general practice and will apply a veto. The British solution, however clever it may be, will hardly be available to many countries in the EU on their own given their high state indebtedness.

Then there is the second question of what to do to assist industry. Failure to give industry proper relief will result in company closures and rampant unemployment, which finally also sparks political protest. In any case, such solutions do not deal with the knock-on effects of vastly increased government borrowing to finance the energy subsidies, something which in the best of times always reduces capital available for other government services and capital available to private business for investment and job creation.

These various problems in dealing with the energy crisis that Europe created for itself by imposing sanctions on Russia may well be intractable and may well lead to spontaneous protests in a number of European countries this fall.

There is no anti-war movement on the Old Continent to speak of. So popular protests over the ‘heat or eat’ dilemma being imposed from the chanceries on the people without anything resembling public debate may be the salvation of us all if they induce war mongering politicans to resign.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2022

September 10, 2022 Posted by | Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Russophobia | , , , | 2 Comments

Germany has ‘stupidest government’ in Europe: MP

© AFP / John MacDougall
Samizdat | September 9, 2022

Germany’s government is the “stupidest” in Europe for managing to embroil itself in a full-blown “economic war” with its top energy supplier, Russia, left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht said on Thursday.

Speaking in the Bundestag, the former co-chair of the party Die Linke (The Left) urged an end to anti-Russian sanctions and the resignation of the country’s vice chancellor and economy minister, Robert Habeck.

While describing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as a “crime,” Wagenknecht said the anti-Russian sanctions are “fatal” for Germany itself. With energy prices out of control, the country’s economy will soon “just be a reminder of the good old days,” the MP warned, as she urged canceling the restrictions and engaging in talks with Russia.

“We really have the stupidest government in Europe,” she told the parliament, calling for Habeck to resign.

“The biggest problem is your grandiose idea of launching an unprecedented economic war against our most important energy supplier.”

“The idea that we are punishing Putin by impoverishing millions of families in Germany and destroying our industry while Gazprom is making record profits – how stupid is that?” Wagenknecht wondered.

The controversial speech met quite a mixed reaction, with Wagenknecht’s remarks scoring applause in the Bundestag from MPs of polar opposite political views, including members of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD). However, multiple left-wing politicians rushed to distance themselves from Wagenknecht’s statements and condemn her.

“The party’s position on sanctions against Russia was decided at the last federal party conference. There is no ‘economic war against Russia.’ Russia is at war with Ukraine,” the former co-chair of Die Linke, Bernd Riexinger, tweeted, adding that there must be “no doubt” about whom the party backs in the ongoing conflict.

Former left-wing MP Niema Movassat went even further, taking to Twitter to call for Wagenknecht to be excluded from his parliamentary group. The politician’s remarks contradict “a lot of” what the party agrees on, and she should be punished for “acting against” Die Linke, Movassat suggested.

September 9, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Russophobia | | 1 Comment

The West Gives Lip Service to Fighting Hunger

By Vladimir Danilov – New Eastern Outlook – 08.09.2022 

Although the energy crisis and the impoverishment of Europe’s population due to the Russophobic sanctions policy of European leaders have been the main themes of the Western media in recent weeks, articles on the fight against hunger nevertheless continue to appear.

Above all, media publications are discussing the consequences of the Istanbul package of documents signed on July 22 to tackle the issue of food and fertilizer supplies on world markets in fighting hunger in several parts of the world. It should be recalled that one of the agreements regulates the procedure for grain exports from Kiev-controlled Black Sea ports, based on the need to urgently address the food crisis in developing countries.

The Director of the World Food Program, David Beasley, who spoke to CNN on August 21, said the daily ships carrying Ukrainian grain would solve problems with access to food around the world, improving the situation in Somalia, Ethiopia, northern Kenya and several other poorer countries where it is most needed.

However, as the German magazine Der Spiegel admitted on September 2, despite the UN’s initial stated aims to fight hunger, only 13 of the 63 cargo ships that had left Ukrainian ports as of early September were carrying wheat. According to the publication, the remaining vessels were mainly carrying corn, used overwhelmingly as animal feed or to produce biofuel. A dozen ships were loaded with soybean or sunflower products, which are also mainly used to feed livestock.

In this regard, the interview given on August 18 to the Rossiya Segodnya news agency by Pyotr Ilyichev, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department for International Organizations, was quite remarkable. He stressed in particular that the 16 ships that had left Ukrainian ports up to that day, carrying 535,000 tons of wheat and fodder crops, had, to great surprise, gone not to needy developing countries, but to rich countries. In particular, to the UK, Ireland, Italy, France and the Republic of Korea – in other words, the countries which are not threatened by hunger but which need fodder for livestock. At the same time, many experts emphasize that Ukrainian grain, primarily corn, is mainly fodder grain. And such actions publicly neglect the urgent problems of Africa and other world’s poorest countries.

Mikhail Ulyanov, Permanent Representative of Russia to International Organizations in Vienna, said in August that ships carrying grain from Kiev-controlled Black Sea ports were primarily destined for countries not at all threatened by hunger.

On August 23, Vasily Nebenzia, Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN, pointed out the same fact at a Security Council meeting on conflicts and food security, noting that of all 34 ships with grain that had left Ukraine, only one sailed to Africa, which needs this food. “Here, of course,” Nebenzia pointed out, “it is worth recalling the public image failure of the ‘pioneer’ ship Razoni, which in fact brought to Lebanon not the wheat they had been waiting for, but corn, and at the same time, fodder.” The Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN also stressed that against this background, the reaction to UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ words at the UN Security Council on May 19 that 49 million people in 43 countries are threatened with famine and nearly 140 million people in 10 countries, including Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen and several African states face severe food shortages, raises a lot of questions. As does the statement by the Secretary-General of the world organization in the port of Odessa that “grain exports and lower prices on global food markets will not bring relief to countries in need that cannot afford to buy it anyway.”

Meanwhile, Western politicians and media continue to persist in promoting the view that the main factor driving up grain prices is the restriction of Ukrainian grain supplies to importers, allegedly due to events in that country. However, an analysis of grain production and supply from Ukraine shows that the special operation currently taking place in that country has very limited influence on the situation with grain supply on the global food market. Because of Ukraine’s record 2021 harvest of grains, pulses and oilseeds, the increased supply of Ukrainian reserves further increases the supply of grain on the market and reduces the price of grain.

Overall, an analysis of the global food market shows that the destabilization of the market is not due to a decline in food production and supply, but to more fundamental causes. As Zhang Jun, Permanent Representative of China to the UN, emphasized at the UNSC meeting on May 19, 2022, “the current crisis once again brings to light the structural problems of the global food system. The world food supply and demand pattern is characterized by food production highly concentrated in a few countries, while consumer countries are geographically well dispersed. This makes the balance of food supply and demand highly vulnerable to extreme weather conditions pandemics, armed conflicts, and other emergency and unforeseen factors.”

Igor Kostyukov, Head of Main Directorate of General Staff of Russian Armed Forces, said in August at a Moscow conference on international security that Western countries were provoking a global food crisis by imposing restrictions on Russia. In particular, he stressed that well-functioning mechanisms for supplying grain and fertilizers to global consumers are being disrupted, leading to artificial price rises on world markets. For example, before the sanctions were imposed, Russia supplied more than 20 million tons of crops and about 11 million tons of fertilizers annually to the Middle East and North Africa, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and other countries. However, the West’s current Russophobic sanctions policy has disrupted this logistical process.

The pattern of world hunger is therefore not at all what Antony Blinken and Josep Borrell originally painted. The problem is the emergence of food shortages due to declining yields caused by a shortage of fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. And also because of attempts to impose on Russia, which, unlike Ukraine, is actually one of the world’s biggest grain exporters, restrictions in trade in food, including grain.

It is clear to everyone that rich countries will not suffer too much because of the fall in yields, and that they will solve their food problems by raising prices and eliminating certain products. For example, vegetables, which were available all year round thanks to cheap energy and greenhouse facilities, but in an economic crisis they will simply become seasonal again and unaffordable for most of the population during the cold season because of their price. The “civilized world” will try to solve all its global food problems at the expense of poor countries: food exchange prices will rise and it will be the rich who will buy it back to curb inflation in their own countries and contain popular discontent. Poor countries, on the other hand, may simply get nothing in such circumstances. Of course, the G7 leaders will demonstrate their ostentatious concern for the people of poor countries and even invent “humanitarian programs” whereby, for example, several ships carrying food will be sent to starving regions of Africa, presenting it through the Western media “as a massive operation to save Africans from starvation.” But this will save few, for the only thing that can save is a return of the world to adequate trade rules that do not involve the imposition of unilateral sanctions and other restrictions.

September 8, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Russophobia | , , , | Leave a comment

Windfall Profits For Generators Running At £43 Billion A Year

By Paul Homewood | Not A Lot Of People Know That | September 7, 2022

Although rising international prices for natural gas have triggered the massive rise in wholesale electricity prices in the last year or so, they are only directly responsible for part of that rise.
As I have explained before, it is usually gas-fired generation that sets the wholesale price of electricity, which in August averaged £382/MWh:

image

https://www.catalyst-commercial.co.uk/works/september-2022-energy-market-brief/

As a result of this broken market, non-gas generators are making obscene windfall profits, with the exception of those on CfDs, which receive a fixed price. These generators produced 131 TWh last year, accounting for 45% of total generation:

Type       Twh
Wind 48
Solar 7
Bio 21
Coal 7
Nuclear 41
Hydro 7

At a price of £382/MWh, compared to a historic price level of around £50/MWh, these generators are raking in an incredible £43 billion. It is true that some generators may have Power Purchase Agreements in place at less than current prices – but this simply means that the purchaser is making the windfall instead. Either way electricity consumers are paying the cost of this on their bills.

The second major issue is the Carbon Price, which has more than doubled since last year and continues to rise>

image

https://www.catalyst-commercial.co.uk/works/september-2022-energy-market-brief/

The purpose of the Carbon Price is to increase the cost of fossil fuel generation, and thereby encourage the transition to renewables. However reports indicate that the wholesale price of natural gas will be capped, presumably at a much lower price than it is now. It is quite perverse therefore to then add back costs via the Carbon Price onto gas generators.

Based on my earlier calculations, the current Carbon Price of £92.65/tonne is adding £35/MWh to the cost of gas generation, and hence onto the wholesale electricity price. This translates to nearly £5 billion of windfall profit for non-gas generators.

The whole Carbon Pricing system should be suspended until further notice. As I understand it, that would need the unanimous agreement of devolved governments. Given the loons running Scotland and Wales, I would not hold my breath!

September 7, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity | | Leave a comment

Moscow sounds alarm over Ukrainian grain deal

Samizdat – September 7, 2022

The grain deal with Ukraine which was supposed to allow Russia to deliver fertilizers and food products to global markets has failed to do so, Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, claimed on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters, Nebenzia revealed that not a single Russian vessel with grain has managed to leave port, despite an earlier UN- and Turkey-brokered agreement that unblocked Ukrainian grain shipments via the Black Sea in exchange for lifting restrictions on Russian exports of the product.

The diplomat hinted that Russia could refuse to extend the deal, given that the provisions on its exports are not being fulfilled. “The agreement was concluded for four months. In other words, it ends in November. In a normal [situation], the deal should be extended. Given the results, or rather the lack of results, I do not rule out anything.”

“We want to see the implementation of the Russian part of the agreement. So far, this hasn’t happened,” Nebenzia said.

His comments echo earlier remarks from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said on Tuesday that Western countries had not fulfilled their promise to lift secondary restrictions on Russian grain and fertilizers, impeding their access to the global market.

The deal to unblock grain exports via the Black Sea was signed at UN-brokered talks in Istanbul in late July, aiming to maintain safe transit routes. In late August, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said there “are no problems” with Ukrainian grain shipments, adding that dozens of vessels have been able to pass through.

Wheat deliveries from Ukraine, a major producer, were disrupted after Russia launched its military operation in the neighboring state in late February. The two sides traded accusations over who was responsible for the stoppage of cargo traffic out of the Ukrainian ports. Since August 1, however, when shipments from the ports resumed, they have delivered around 2 million tons of food products to global markets.

September 7, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity | , | Leave a comment

Prague: 100,000 citizens protest against government’s energy policy

Free West Media | September 6, 2022

In the Czech capital of Prague up to 100,000 people demonstrated on Saturday against the government policy, which has been leading to skyrocketing energy prices and an impending energy emergency in the Czech Republic. Immediately prior to this, there had already been a motion of no confidence in the government under Prime Minister Fiala in the Czech parliament.

In Prague, as in many European capitals, the government refused to see the protests as a political warning signal, but tried to blame Russian “trolls” for the increasingly irritable mood among the population. Another indication of the development in the country is the fact that a broad alliance of conservatives, right-wingers and communists called for the large rally on Saturday.

In the Czech Republic, the very existence of industry is threatened due to the lack of Russian gas supplies. Despite this, the government fully supports the EU’s sanctions course – and, needless to say, is now feeling the consequences.

The government is pretending to see Russian machinations behind the protests: “It is clear that Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns repeatedly appear on our territory, and some simply succumb to them,” Prime Minister Fiala declared. Interior Minister Rakušan also saw “Putin” behind the protest: “Dividing society is one of the goals of the hybrid warfare we are dealing with. We can’t let him do that. That is why we are working on solutions that will reduce people’s fears about the future.”

According to the ideas of the organizers of the rally, every Czech household should be entitled to three megawatt hours of free electricity. In addition, one of the demands of the alliance was that its representatives should be authorized to conclude energy supply contracts.

“We’re taking our country back,” they said at the beginning of the three-hour rally. The call for this also included military neutrality and the loss of sovereignty to supranational structures. “The Czech Republic must free itself from direct political subordination to the EU, the WHO and the UN,” it said.

But that’s not all: “If the government doesn’t resign by September 25,” the organizers say, “in accordance with the Czech Republic’s constitution, we will declare the right to protest at a nationwide demonstration and announce measures to force the resignation. We are already negotiating with unions, companies, farmers, mayors, transport companies and other organizations to declare a strike,” they warned.

The same scenario is also possible in Germany. It was not for nothing that Federal Foreign Minister Baerbock warned of “popular uprisings” in the autumn.

In Leipzig left and right unite

The “Hot Autumn” proclaimed by the Left Party was reflected at least in the temperatures as the thermometer rose to 25 degrees on Monday evening in Leipzig’s historic city center. Both left-wing and right-wing parties and alliances have called for rallies at this historic site, based on the Monday demonstrations of 1989/90.

A total of 10,000 participants were expected, but in the end, Augustusplatz was flooded with people. The federal government had presented its new relief package on Sunday to absorb the economic consequences of the sanctions policy against Russia – and to prevent protests like this Monday evening.

The Federal Chair of the Left Party, Janine Wissler, recently expressed doubts on Deutschlandfunk that measures like these could alleviate the displeasure of the population. And the politician defended herself against accusations that her party also offered a platform to “right-wing ideologues” during the Monday demonstrations.

Leipzig’s Greens, for example, recently complained that the Left Party was “damaging Leipzig’s historical heritage” and thwarting “the commitment of Leipzig’s city society for democracy and cosmopolitanism and against right-wing marches in the heart of the city”. Wissler countered that social protests were needed against the “dramatic injustice” in the country. “We will not let the right take the high road. Not on Mondays and not on any other day either.”

Thousands of Germans in Magdeburg also opposed Olaf Scholz’s irrational policy by shouting: “Nord Stream! Nord Stream!” EU sanctions were supposed to weaken Russia’s economy, instead they are destroying Europe’s economy.

Media blackout in France regarding anti-Macron protests

“I almost fell off my chair!” said Florian Philippot, leader of the political party Les Patriotes. Philippot commented on the fact that news outlet LCI fraudulently reported that the demonstration on Saturday in Paris against Macron’s harsh energy policy “did not take place”.  LCI further claimed that they were only “fake images” of the protests and “hijacking by Russian television”.

Philippot accused the outlet of lying. “It did take place. There were people there. LCI was informed and invited.”

Macron’s energy repression is the fourth threat that comes on top of the jihadist threat, the police threat (which hovers over the Yellow Vests), and the health threat, said his critics.

“The ecologists who applaud this deindustrialization do not understand that the destructive neoliberalism of the Great Reset is advancing behind a green mask. Even if it is true that overfishing is destroying the seabed and fish stocks, the climate crisis is a sham. The programmed destruction of production in Europe by Schwab and his friends leads inexorably to mass unemployment, impoverishment of the middle class and the extinction of our countries,” noted a critic of the French administration.

“The parasitic system is ready to destroy the societies that host it in order to survive.”

September 6, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Fake News, Mainstream Media, Warmongering, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Russophobia | , | 1 Comment

Moscow accuses West of breaking ‘grain deal’ pledge

Samizdat – September 6, 2022

Western countries have not fulfilled their promise to lift sanctions on Russian grain and fertilizers to allow them reach world markets, the country’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said on Tuesday.

The commitment was part of a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey and signed in Istanbul in July to unblock Ukraine’s grain exports and ease a looming global food crisis.

Lavrov stressed that “artificially inflated” Western claims that Russian actions in Ukraine had undermined the stability of the global food market are “absolutely not the case.”

“On the contrary, our Western colleagues are not doing what we were promised by the UN secretary general, namely, they are not making a decision to remove logistical sanctions that prevent free access of Russian grain and fertilizers to world markets,” the minister pointed out at a joint press conference with his Thai counterpart, Don Pramudwinai.

Lavrov added that Russia continues to work with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and his team to ensure the organization fulfills its obligations under the Istanbul agreements.

Wheat deliveries from Ukraine, a major producer, were disrupted after Russia launched its military operation in the neighboring state in late February. The two sides traded accusations over who was responsible for the stoppage of cargo traffic out of Ukrainian ports. Since August 1, however, when shipments from the ports resumed, 92 vessels have departed, bringing more than 2 million tons of food goods to global markets.

September 6, 2022 Posted by | Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity | , , | 1 Comment

Tens of Thousands Take to Prague’s Streets to Protest Against EU & NATO

Sputnik – 03.09.2022

Earlier in the week, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s government faced yet another vote of no-confidence in parliament, in what is the opposition’s second bid to oust the center-right coalition this year.

An estimated 70,000 people took to the streets of the Czech capital Prague on Saturday, protesting against the government, the European Union and NATO.

The leaders of the protests slammed the government’s inaction in dealing with record-high inflation in the country, including soaring gas and electricity prices, and demanded that Prague signs direct contracts with gas suppliers – Russia included – notwithstanding Brussels’ policies.

“The aim of our demonstration is to demand change, mainly in solving the issue of energy prices, especially electricity and gas, which will destroy our economy this autumn,” one of the demonstration’s organizers, Jiri Havel, stated.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala dismissed the protesters’ demands, claiming that they did not hold “the interests of the Czech Republic” at their hearts and accused them of being “pro-Russian”. Fiala did not elaborate on how rapidly growing prices are in the country’s best interests.

Fiala’s government recently survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote called by the opposition in light of his cabinet’s inaction in the face of soaring inflation. Fiala won the vote, which was preceded by a 22-hour-long marathon debate. His coalition holds an eight-seat edge over the opposition in the 200-seat parliament.

September 3, 2022 Posted by | Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Solidarity and Activism | , , | 1 Comment

“Exorbitant Rise In Energy Prices” Forces Europe’s Top Steelmaker To Close Plants

By Tyler Durden | Zero Hedge | September 3, 2022

Even though European power and natural gas prices have subsided this week, Germany, the largest economy in the bloc, still faces historically high energy costs that have forced cuts in industrial output.

The latest example is the world’s largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, which released a statement Friday about shutting down two plants and idling one.

Europe’s top steelmaker said two plants in Germany (one in Bremen and the other in Hamburg) would be partially closed at the end of September. A plant in Asturias, Spain, will also be idled.

ArcelorMittal blamed the coming smelter shutdowns on “the exorbitant rise in energy prices,” which is devastatingly impacting the company’s “competitiveness of steel production.” The decision to reduce metal output was also based on “weak market demand and a negative economic outlook” as energy hyperinflation risks sending Europe into a deep recession.

“As an energy-intensive industry, we are extremely affected. With gas and electricity prices increasing tenfold within just a few months, we are no longer competitive in a market that is 25% supplied by imports,” explained Reiner Blaschek, CEO of ArcelorMittal Germany.

Blaschek asked lawmakers to address the historic energy crisis and get prices “under control immediately.” Elevated prices this summer have resulted in a series of smelter closures from other metal-producing companies because high energy costs made production uneconomical.

In Germany, one of every six industrial companies feels forced to reduce production due to high energy prices, a survey by the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, DIHK, showed at the end of July. Nearly a quarter of the companies forced to reduce production had already done so by end-July, and another one-quarter are in the process of scaling back production due to sky-high energy prices, according to the survey of 3,500 companies from all sectors and regions in Germany.

The energy-intensive industries and firms are particularly hit, as 32 percent of the companies plan to or have already started to reduce production and even halt entire production lines, the DIHK survey showed. — OilPrice.com’s Tsvetana Paraskova

Runaway energy costs were halted this week as German year-ahead electricity futures plunged by half since Monday’s peak above 1,000 euros a megawatt-hour as the EU considers market interventions. EU NatGas prices closed down about 33% from the highs reached on Aug. 25.

However, here’s where things get very dicey. After European markets closed, around the lunch hour in New York, news broke that Russian energy giant Gazprom won’t resume critical NatGas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 tomorrow after an oil leak was detected. There’s no timeframe when NatGas supply will resume to the energy-stricken continent.

Europe’s energy crisis could materially worsen, which means higher NatGas and power prices that will only curb more industrial output. Germany could fall into recession this winter, bringing the rest of the bloc down with it.

September 3, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity | , | Leave a comment

Israeli occupation forces confiscate 4 boats, sink 2 others off Gaza shores

Palestinian Information Center – September 2, 2022

GAZA – During the past two days, the Israeli occupation forces (IOF) have escalated their attacks against the Palestinian fishermen off the Gaza shores.

The IOF chased and opened fire at Palestinian fishing boats sailing within the allowed fishing area in separate incidents. As a result, four boats were confiscated, and another was sunk, while a fifth was burned.

According to the Palestinian fishermen syndicate, the occupation forces burned a boat belonging to the fisherman Haitham Farwana after opening fire at it off Khan Yunis shores on Thursday.

The Israeli forces also confiscated on the same day the boat of the fisherman Abdel Moati Al-Habil.

Earlier on Wednesday, IOF confiscated a fishing boat where Ahmad Adel Mohammad Al-Bardawil was on board sailing within 3 nautical miles off western Rafah shore, southern Gaza Strip. There were also 2 generators and 30 searchlights on the boat.

The IOF also confiscated 2 fishing boats belonging to Muhannad Ra’fat Radwan Baker, and Tayseer Mohammad Abdulnouri, who are both residents of al-Shati refugee camp. They were sailing within 3 nautical miles off al-Waha shore, northwest of Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip.

In a separate incident, a fisherman named Omar Mohammad Ism’ail Al-Bardawil said that IOF’s gunboats stationed off the Fishermen Seaport, western Rafah, pumped water at a fishing boat he owns and sank it. The boat was sailing within 6 nautical miles and had a generator and searchlights on board.

So far in 2022, the Palestinian Center for Human Rights (PCHR) documented the injury of 19 fishermen and the arrest of 44 others, including 6 children; 2 fishermen remain in IOF detention. Also, the Israeli authorities continue to keep 18 fishing boats and dozens of fishing tools and equipment in their custody.

In this regard, PCHR reiterated its call upon the international community, including the States Party to the Geneva Conventions of 1949, to compel the Israeli authorities to cease their attacks and pursuit of Palestinian fishermen in the Gaza waters, and to allow them to fish freely.

September 2, 2022 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity | , , , , | 7 Comments

EU wants to set price for Russian gas

Samizdat | September 2, 2022

The EU needs a price ceiling on imports of Russian pipeline gas, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Friday, according to Reuters.

“I firmly believe that it is now time for a price cap on Russian pipeline gas to Europe,” she told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting of German conservative lawmakers in the town of Murnau.

The EU chief insists the measure would prevent what she called Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempts to manipulate the European energy market.

EU energy ministers are expected to discuss the issue during an extraordinary meeting on September 9.

Meanwhile, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev warned on Friday that in the event of the introduction of such a price cap, EU nations won’t get any Russian gas. “It will be like with oil. There will be no Russian gas in Europe,” Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel.

His comments relate to a plan to limit prices on Russian oil currently being discussed by Group of Seven (G7) countries. Moscow has already warned it will embargo countries that support the Washington-proposed price cap on its crude exports.

September 2, 2022 Posted by | Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Russophobia | | 3 Comments

Energy crisis worsening in Finland

Government declares “war economy” due to consequences of unnecessary anti-Russian sanctions

By Lucas Leiroz – September 2, 2022

The side effects of anti-Russian sanctions are becoming increasingly unbearable for Western countries. Finland has activated maximum alert levels due to the energy crisis, initiating exceptional measures to manage supply difficulties. The head of government even stated that the country would be experiencing a “war economy”, despite the fact that Finland is obviously not at war with any other state. This scenario reveals the disastrous path that the West chose to follow by its own decision.

On 1 September, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin described the economic situation in her country in the midst of the gas supply crisis as a “war economy”. Interestingly, in her speech, Marin blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the crisis, despite the fact that the decision to sanction Moscow was taken unilaterally by Western countries. According to her, the gas crisis is occurring because the Russian government is using energy as a weapon in the current conflict. 

“We seem to be living in a war economy. This is not a normal economic situation”, she said during a press conference.

She also added that this is the third calamity her country has faced since she took power in 2019: 

“The first [crisis] was the pandemic, the second was the tide of war coming in Europe, and the third is the energy crisis, which both Finland and all other European countries in the grip of, due to the war and the fact that Putin is using energy as a weapon against Europe”.

Marin did not explain exactly how the gas was being used as a weapon by the Russians. She just blamed Putin in a generic and unjustified way. In fact, her words sounded like a desperate attempt to make a kind of scapegoat for the impending crisis that will damage her country. Marin just tried to evade her responsibility as the Finland’s head of government, pointing to the president of a foreign country as the cause of the problems.

However, it is necessary to emphasize that there is no validity in Marin’s rhetoric. Russia initially had no intention of using energy as a strategic point in its international disputes. On the contrary, it was the West itself that imposed a series of sanctions to which Moscow was forced to respond with some measures, such as demanding payment in rubles, controlling prices and even banning sales in some more serious cases. 

If the West had not taken the initiative to try to “punish” Russia for starting the special operation in Ukraine, Moscow would certainly have kept the European energy supply intact. All Russian actions arose in response to Western provocations. The problem is that European countries do not seem to have acted with prudence and strategy, they simply adhered to the American plan to sanction Russia even though they are dependent on Russia’s energy resources and lacking alternative sources of gas. Now, Marin tries to “blame” the Russians, but imposing sanctions and even asking for NATO membership was her government’s unilateral initiative.

The Finnish case is quite emblematic and sums up well the abyss that Europe has chosen for itself. Before the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, the Nordic country depended on Moscow for the supply of 70% of its natural gas and 35% of its oil, in addition to 14% of its electricity. Without the partnership with Moscow, Helsinki would simply not have been able to meet the energy demands of the production chains and the population, but even so, the country chose to sanction Russia, ban imports and denied any form of dialogue. There is no way to analyze these facts and conclude that Russian President Vladimir Putin is the one “to blame” for the crisis. The responsibility undoubtedly lies with the Finnish government itself.

On the “war economy” situation, in fact, an unprecedented crisis threatens Helsinki. And the most curious thing is that the government takes measures that will only worsen the situation even more, instead of seeking improvement. Finland was one of the first states to impose restrictions on the entry of Russian tourists, halving the number of visas. Under the recently announced new rules, only 500 visas can be granted per day to Russian citizens, 100 of which are reserved for tourists and 400 for work, study and family trips. It is important to remember that more than 20% of all Finnish tourism income comes from Russian citizens. According to official sources, the country will lose more than 600 million euros with the new visa rules.

In addition, Finland remains firm in its application to join the Western military alliance. In fact, the more the country is affected by tensions with Russia, the more it seems to be willing to worsen these tensions. Moscow at no time showed any sign of threat to Helsinki, but the Nordic country appears to be absolutely influenced by the fallacious Western rhetoric that the operation in Ukraine will “expand” throughout Europe, so it prefers to go into recession and economic crisis instead of simply being diplomatic with Russia.

For now, Marin will certainly continue to try to make Putin the scapegoat for her administration’s mistakes. But that won’t convince the public for long. The PM has been heavily criticized for both mismanagement and scandals in her private life. Her popularity is likely to drop further as the country sinks into a “war economy” without being at war.

Lucas Leiroz is a researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.

September 2, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Russophobia | , , | 1 Comment

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