The next Israel-Hezbollah war is now unavoidable – and it will be worse
By Robert Inlakesh | RT | February 10, 2025
Another round of violence between Lebanon and Israel is not a matter of if, but when. Israel managed to extract a series of tactical victories from the war so far, but did not possess the capacity to defeat Hezbollah decisively. Now that Israel seeks to maintain freedom of action inside Lebanon, it threatens a much more violent outbreak than what was stopped by the November 27 ceasefire.
Much of the analyses offered on the conflict between Lebanon and Israel, which erupted into a paroxysmal battle in September 2024, trace its origins back to October 8, 2023. However, this take is limited in its scope and also often misses key lessons from the history of the conflict.
Understanding what shaped the Lebanon-Israel war
A day after the Hamas-led October 7 attack against Israel, it became clear, through the public statements and actions of the Israelis, that the war they sought to launch was intended to inflict maximum collective punishment on the civilian population of Gaza. Although it often goes unrecognized due to the shocking effects of the Hamas raid, at least 413 Palestinians were killed inside Gaza that day, most of them civilians. The next day, the Lebanese group Hezbollah began opening fire on Israeli monitoring equipment set up in the illegally occupied Shebaa Farms area.
After Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon and killed four Hezbollah members, the Lebanese armed group responded by opening fire on Israeli military sites and surveillance equipment on October 9. That same day, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared a “complete siege” on Gaza and that “we are fighting against human animals” to justify blocking all food, water, and electricity from entering the territory.
Understanding the gravity of what had just happened, Hezbollah’s secretary general, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, understood that they were going to have to play a supporting role for the Palestinian armed groups in Gaza. However, the group did not want to drag Lebanon into a comprehensive war and repeatedly stressed this point. The one pledge that Nasrallah made was “Hamas will win,” offering no other red lines.
From October 8, 2023 to September 20, 2024, Israel was responsible for around 81% of all attacks between both sides, killing 752 people in Lebanon, while Hezbollah’s attacks killed 33 Israelis. The last time a war was fought between Lebanon and Israel was in 2006, which began when Hezbollah conducted a raid and kidnapped Israeli soldiers. The war was well planned by Hezbollah and resulted in a victory for the group, as Israeli forces retreated from Lebanese territory.
What made Hezbollah the first Arab force to claim a real victory over Israel in 2006 was down to the absolute power imbalance, in which a stalemate combined with tactical victories and a well executed plan made it a defeat of the Israeli military. After this, while Israeli forces committed thousands of violations of Lebanese sovereignty – by land, sea, and air – occasionally assassinating Hezbollah fighters in Syria that caused some brief border skirmishes, the two sides veered away from all-out war.
In 2019, however, the Israelis began working on a new security fence/wall along the Lebanese border, which cut into and annexed land clearly demarcated to be on Lebanon’s side of what is known as the Blue Line. In 2023, the most significant land grab was of the northern Ghajjar village, which was cut off from Lebanon and opened for Israelis to visit. In addition, Israeli forces repeatedly entered Lebanon in order to clear land between the fence and Lebanese farm lands, resulting in repeated standoffs.
During the period from 2006 to 2023, Israel had been working at infiltrating Hezbollah and spying on the political party, while the Lebanese group significantly strengthened its military power. This is of great significance to the conflict that has taken place over the past 16 months, because Hezbollah in 2006 was somewhat comparable in power to Hamas at the start of the war in October 2023.
Hezbollah was also born out of the conflict between the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Israel, when the Israelis launched their invasion of Lebanon in 1982. The Israelis killed around 20,000 Palestinians and Lebanese in that war, which ended with a ceasefire due to the PLO’s surrender and acceptance of deportation to Tunisia.
Yet, after the PLO’s fighters and leadership left, Israel did not leave Lebanese territory and instead occupied the south of the country, while deploying its allied militias, including the Phalange Party, to massacre thousands of civilians in and around the Palestinian refugee camps. The lesson learned here for all future movements that would emerge to fight Israel, was that you never surrender your weapons; hence the Hamas slogan ‘victory or martyrdom’. The single biggest achievement that Hezbollah recorded in its history was forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanese lands and give up on their occupation.
Why war is inevitable
It is clear that the war between Lebanon and Israel, which lasted nearly two months, was not one that Hezbollah was prepared for. Even after Israel’s booby-trapped pager attacks, which injured thousands across Lebanon, including many civilians, the Lebanese group still sought to fight a limited battle, as evidenced by the speech given by Nasrallah at the time. However, Israel did not stop there and decided to kill most of Hezbollah’s senior leadership, including Nasrallah, making a war unavoidable.
As early as October 8, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was threatening Lebanon with the kind of destruction wrought on Gaza. While the assault that the Israelis launched was certainly devastating to the civilian population, killing nearly 2,000 people, it was clear that it had not decided to launch a Gaza-style attack. Meanwhile, Hezbollah began using heavier missiles from its vast arsenal, but was tame in its approach and was careful to make much of its strikes symbolic or aimed at military facilities. This had nothing to do with what either side may have liked to do, but there was strategic constraint, which appeared to be deteriorating into the final week prior to the ceasefire.
By late November, Israel had failed to make meaningful advances on the ground in southern Lebanon and did not achieve its objective of reaching the Litani River area. Meanwhile, Hezbollah was not capable of equaling the level of destruction that Israel was committing against Lebanese cities using their missile strategy, it was also fighting essentially blindfolded and standing on one leg after the blows it suffered. Both sides realized that the inevitable result would be a stalemate, so in order to stop further devastation, a ceasefire was reached.
After suffering a major disruption to its supply line through Syria, the loss of its leadership and many commanders, also battling to solve the issues of infiltration, Hezbollah was severely wounded, but not destroyed. While the Israeli tactical victories have now shifted the propaganda war to make Hezbollah appear to be on its last legs, it is far from done. In fact, it still maintains a formidable ground force of around 100,000 fighters, a domestic weapons production capacity, and an abundance of ammunition, which the Israeli military understands well.
The loss of Nasrallah is not a small thing and still lingers in the minds of each and every supporter inside the country, many of whom still yearn for revenge after what was just committed against their nation. Israel proved incapable of beating Hamas after 15 months of all-out devastation, committing one of the worst atrocities since the Second World War. Hezbollah is still a much more capable fighting force than Hamas, yet there are a number of constraints on it due to the domestic political/economic/social situation inside Lebanon.
If Israel chooses to stay inside Lebanese territory, for whatever reason, it will only be a matter of time before action is taken. The next round will also likely be much more bloody, and the death toll will make the conflict last year seem relatively insignificant in comparison. This may not happen in the immediate future and could even take over a year, but the conflict is far from over and that is because there isn’t really a ceasefire in effect as of now.
On November 27, Israel made a point of not only violating it from the first moments and later advancing further into southern Lebanon, it committed hundreds of violations of the ceasefire. Israel has made it very clear that the new reality is that it has full freedom of action and can remain inside pockets of southern Lebanon for as long as it chooses. Therefore, there will have to be a war to ensure that a real ceasefire is reached and Lebanese territory will not be open season for the Israeli military to bomb, shoot at, and kidnap civilians.
Netanyahu is now bragging about changing the map of the surrounding region, while his new army chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, recently declared “2025 will continue to be a year of combat.” Israel is acting aggressively, expanding its borders, and does not appear to be backing down from its warmongering with Iran, which will lead to even greater chaos. Hezbollah will have to carefully navigate Lebanon’s domestic terrain and when it acts, implement a well oiled plan if it chooses to retaliate against Israel’s daily assaults on its country. All of the signs point to a dangerous escalation brewing.
Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the Palestinian territories and currently works with Quds News. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’.
Despite US “Red Lines”, Lebanon Forms New Gov’t with Hezbollah Participation
Al-Manar | February 8, 2025
Lebanon announced on Saturday the formation of the awaited new government, a day after US Deputy Special Envoy to the Middle East visited Beirut to impose dictations and set “red lines” on the participation of Hezbollah.
Secretary General of the Council of Ministers Mahmoud Makkieh announced the 24-member cabinet, including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
Hezbollah and ally Amal Movement, known as the national Shiite duo are represented by 4 ministers. The fifth Shiite minister was agreed upon by PM Salam and Speaker Nabih Berri, the leader of Amal Movement.
Before the announcement of the government formation, President Joseph Aoun held discussions with Salam in Baabda Presidential Palace.
The two presidents were then joined by Speaker Berri, who said as he left the palace: “It’s about the blessings of St. Maroun,” in an optimistic message carried by local media that the government will be announced today.
Shortly after, President Aoun signed a decree accepting the resignation of caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government and the decree appointing Nawaf Salam to form a new government.
Aoun and Salam then signed a decree to form a new government of 24 ministers.
Hezbollah is represented by two ministers: Minister of Public Health Rakan Nassereddine and Minister of Labor Mohammad Haidar.
Meanwhile, Amal movement is represented by Minister of Finance Yassin Jaber and Minister of Environment Tamara Al-Zein.
The fifth minister who was agreed upon by Speaker Berri and PM Salam is Minister of Administrative Development Fadi Makki.
Al-Manar correspondent said Free Patriotic Movement is not represented in the cabinet.
Salam Remarks
Following the announcement PM Salam said the new cabinet would prioritize financial reforms, reconstruction and the implementation of UN Resolution 1701.
“Reform is the only way to save the country,” Salam told reporters at the presidential palace.
“Reconstruction in south Lebanon is not a promise, but rather a commitment,” the new Lebanese premier added.
The formation of the new cabinet was expected on Thursday. But it was delayed due to Salam’s insistence to name the fifth Shiite minister.
Names of Ministers
The names of Ministers in the Lebanese Government are as follows:
Prime Minister: Nawaf Salam
Deputy Prime Minister: Tarek Mitri
Minister of Defense: Michel Mnassa
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates: Youssef Raji
Minister of Telecommunications: Charles El-Hajj
Minister of Energy and Water: Joseph Sadi
Minister of Interior: Ahmad Al-Hajjar
Minister of Justice: Adel Nassar
Minister of Finance: Yassin Jaber
Minister of Public Health: Rakan Nassereddine
Minister of Culture: Ghassan Salameh
Minister of Industry: Joe Issa El-Khoury
Minister of Economy and Trade: Amer Al-Bssat
Minister of Agriculture: Nizar Hani
Minister of Information: Paul Morcos
Minister of Social Affairs: Haneen Al-Sayyed
Minister of Public Works and Transport: Fayez Ressamni
Minister of the Displaced: Kamal Shehadeh
Minister of Labor: Mohammad Haidar
Minister of Youth and Sports: Noura Perqadarian
Minister of Tourism: Laura Al-Khazen Lahoud
Minister of Administrative Development: Fadi Makki
Minister of Education: Rima Karami
Minister of Environment: Tamara Al-Zein
US Envoy Ortagus Meets President Aoun, Imposes Dictations on Lebanon
Al-Manar | February 7, 2025
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met on Friday with US Deputy Special Envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus who said that Washington has set a “red line” over participation of Hezbollah in the new government.
“We are grateful to our ally Israel for defeating Hezbollah,” Ortagus said in a press conference, following a meeting with President Aoun.
“It is thanks to the Lebanese President Aoun and the Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam and everyone in this government who is committed to an end of corruption, who is committed to reforms and who is committed to making sure that Hezbollah is not a part of the new government in any form,” the US diplomat added.
“We have set clear red lines from the United States that (Hezbollah) won’t be able to terrorize the Lebanese people and that includes by being a part of the government,” she added, as quoted by Associated Press.
Ortagus’ remarks sparked ire in Lebanon, with some commentators, even those who oppose Hezbollah, considering them as imposed dictations and a violation to the Lebanese sovereignty.
For his part, President Aoun, emphasized that “permanent stability in south Lebanon is closely linked to the completion of the Israeli withdrawal from the territories it occupied during the last war, and the full implementation of Resolution 1701, including the provisions of the November 27 ceasefire agreement.”
“The release of Lebanese prisoners is an integral part of this agreement,” the president added, as cited by Lebanon’s National News Agency.
Later on Friday, the Lebanese Presidency Press Office issued a statement in which it said: “The presidency is not concerned with some of remarks made by US deputy Middle East envoy Morgan Ortagus in Baabda.”
Unarmed southern Lebanese defy Israeli occupation; injuries reported
Al Mayadeen | January 29, 2025
“Israel” continues to violate the ceasefire with Lebanon, persistently attacking residents of southern villages and demolishing homes and lands in the region.
In this context, the Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that five Lebanese civilians were injured, including two in critical condition, following an Israeli drone strike on the outskirts of Majdal Selem, near Wadi al-Slouqi.
Meanwhile, an Israeli military bulldozer conducted excavation operations at the western entrance to Mays al-Jabal, advancing beyond the UNIFIL headquarters in a provocative maneuver.
Invading Israeli units carried out extensive bulldozing operations on the outskirts of Marwahin, shielded by a Merkava tank while demolishing an artesian well in Houla and erecting new earthen fortifications.
Concurrently, an Israeli drone dropped three explosive bombs on the town of Tallousah, injuring one person and damaging a bulldozer and a truck. Additionally, Israeli forces set fire to homes between the towns of al-Qantara and Taybeh.
Residents defy the IOF, determined to reclaim their land
Despite the brutal Israeli assaults, residents of Maroun al-Ras continue attempting to enter their town from the northeastern side to retrieve the bodies of martyrs still under the rubble.
Al Mayadeen’s correspondent reported that residents of Maroun al-Ras bypassed Israeli forces controlling the northern entrance by using alternative routes to enter the town. During the incident, one civilian was shot and wounded by Israeli forces, while the invading Israeli units abducted four civilians in Maroun al-Ras, including a woman. While three have been released, one remains in captivity.
It is worth noting that gunfire from Israeli forces echoed as residents entered for the first time.
A resident of Maroun al-Ras stated, “Our return is our decision. We will liberate our land with stones and boiling oil, just as we did in the 1980s.”
Similarly, residents of Yaroun are preparing to enter their town from the northern entrance, reaffirming their resilience and commitment to their land, supported by the Lebanese Army.
The National News Agency reported that residents of Kfar Kila set up a tent on the Khardali road at the Deir Mimas-Qlayaa junction, declaring their intent to remain there until invading Israeli units withdraw.
The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported a total of 36 injuries from Israeli attacks the previous day, with six in Yaroun as residents attempted to re-enter, 20 in an airstrike on Nabatieh al-Fawqa, and 10 in an assault on Zawtar.
It is worth noting that the Israeli occupation forces launched on Tuesday evening two airstrikes on Nabatieh al-Fawqa in Southern Lebanon within the span of an hour.
The first strike injured 14 people, according to the initial figures reported by Lebanon’s Ministry of Health.
Thousands of southern Lebanese residents gathered at the entrances of their villages, preparing to return after the expiration of the 60-day deadline. This marks the fourth consecutive day of their return following the conclusion of the deadline for Israeli forces’ withdrawal, which ended on Sunday.
“Israel”—under US backing—confirmed through Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office that its forces would not fully withdraw from southern Lebanon after the expiration of the deadline.
Hezbollah responded late Thursday, declaring that “any violation of the 60-day deadline is a blatant breach of the agreement and an escalation of the assault on Lebanese sovereignty.” The Resistance movement emphasized that the Israeli occupation had entered a new phase that should be confronted by the Lebanese state using all available methods guaranteed by international law to reclaim and liberate the land.
In Lebanon, civilians amass to secure liberation
By Khalil Harb | The Cradle | January 27, 2025
Ignoring a foreign-imposed ceasefire ‘extension,’ southern Lebanese residents are reclaiming their villages from Israeli occupation, exposing the failures of both the invasion and US mediation – and it’s happening in both Gaza and Lebanon at the same time.
The image that Israel sought to project – both to its settlers and to the wider Arab world – of a resistance subdued, a nation defeated, and a broken will crumbled at dawn on 26 January as the 60-day deadline for the implementation of the ceasefire with Hezbollah approached.
The shattering moment came as the Lebanese people triumphantly returned to their recently occupied villages with unrelenting resolve, putting an end to two months of perceived acquiescence and Israeli ambitions to extend its occupation of the country beyond the truce.
Scrambling to attach legitimacy to Israel’s continuing violations beyond the ceasefire deadline, the White House issued a very brief statement on Sunday evening, announcing that the agreement would remain in effect until 18 February.
Within hours, the Lebanese presidency’s X account posted: “There is no truth to the news about Israel informing Lebanon that it will remain at five border points for 15 days.”
Israel’s miscalculated strategy
The occupation state, once again miscalculating the realities on the ground, appeared to have banked on its extensive aggression in southern Lebanon, coupled with a brutal two-month rampage through southern villages under the guise of implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, to craft a facade of victory.
During this time, villages south of the Litani River – spared military occupation during the war thanks to the fierce resistance – were ravaged through relentless bombing and destruction right up until the deadline. Tel Aviv seemed confident this violence, shielded by the ceasefire agreement, would entrench its control and bolster its narrative of dominance – a narrative it had deceived itself into believing.
The arrogance of Israel’s leadership, from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his far-right political allies and opposition leaders, underestimated the resilience of the Lebanese. The illusion that the war and its aftermath had crushed the will of the southern villagers or forced new terms upon Hezbollah was put to an unanticipated test.
During Lebanon’s observance of the ceasefire – marked by the deployment of its army south of the Litani and Hezbollah’s adherence to truce terms – Israel misread this restraint as weakness. Toward the end of the truce period, Israeli leaders openly discussed prolonged occupation of southern Lebanon, citing security concerns for northern settlers who had yet to return home.
What Israel did not foresee was the convergence of two historical moments: the Lebanese reclaiming their villages and Palestinians in Gaza defying displacement by returning northward from the strip. This dual movement after two ceasefire agreements, powered by an unyielding indigenous attachment to the land despite a genocidal campaign against its natives, exposed the failure of Israeli calculations and those of its allies in the west and West Asia.
A ceasefire undermined by violations
The recklessness of the US-led armistice committee, chaired by US General Jasper Jeffers, compounded the situation. By treating Israel’s numerous violations of the ceasefire lightly, the committee allowed Tel Aviv to interpret the agreement as it pleased.
Under this pretext, Israeli forces executed airstrikes, demolished entire residential neighborhoods, and bulldozed agricultural and forest areas, electrical network lines, water wells, and numerous roads. The occupation army uprooted infrastructure and disrupted civilian life in southern Lebanon at a scale rivaling the destruction during the 15-month war itself.
According to estimates by Lebanese authorities, there were over 800 violations during the ceasefire, yet the armistice committee offered no meaningful condemnation. Civilians attempting to return home were targeted indiscriminately; as of Sunday night, the Lebanese Ministry of Health recorded 24 more martyrs and over 134 wounded across 21 southern villages, many of them women and children, in addition to the nearly 100 lives lost since the ceasefire began.
Complicit silence of ‘mediators’
Israel’s actions, enabled by international complicity, emboldened it to extend its occupation and deepen the suffering of the Lebanese. Meanwhile, General Jeffers, tasked with overseeing the ceasefire and implementing Resolution 1701, remained a bystander to these crimes.
His silence showed, yet again, Washington’s inherent bias, which – far from being a neutral mediator – has historically aligned with Tel Aviv’s interests. This raises a pertinent question: can the US genuinely claim impartiality in Lebanon’s political and security affairs?
A political source close to the resistance in Lebanon, speaking to The Cradle, says this bias risks destabilizing the country and rendering the truce meaningless.
The resistance, represented by Hezbollah, set things straight with its statement last Thursday, which warned against “a continued violation of Lebanese sovereignty.”
Hezbollah insisted that these violations must be dealt with “by the state using all means and methods guaranteed by international conventions … to reclaim the land.”
“While we will follow the developments of the situation, which are supposed to culminate in a complete withdrawal in the coming days, we will not accept any violation of the agreement and commitments, and any attempt to evade them under flimsy pretexts.”
Hezbollah’s warnings realized
Sunday’s events confirmed Hezbollah’s warnings. As civilians re-entered their villages en masse, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) followed, deploying in areas where Israeli troops were reluctant to surrender. This mass mobilization dismantled Israel’s scorched-earth strategy, which sought to make the region uninhabitable and reconstruction efforts near impossible.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, desperate to balance internal political pressures and its failed Gaza offensive, miscalculated again. Instead of breaking the Lebanese spirit, it was met with a formidable display of unity and defiance.
In exchange for the Lebanese commitment to implement the requirements of the ceasefire, Hezbollah parliamentary representative Ali Fayyad says that this was met with “Israeli treachery, international complicity, and indifference.”
A source close to the resistance also tells The Cradle that the presence of Israeli occupation forces on even a single inch of Lebanese territory serves as a justification for continued resistance.
The source elaborates that the Netanyahu government, by attempting to circumvent the truce deadline, is pursuing several interconnected objectives. Chief among them is the strategy to intensify pressure on Beirut, both politically and militarily, with the aim of forcing it into submission to Israeli demands.
Additionally, Israel seeks to establish a so-called “burned zone” along the border, creating a buffer area that would further entrench its occupation. This maneuvering, the source adds, also serves Netanyahu’s domestic agenda.
By maintaining a foothold in southern Lebanon, he aims to deflect criticism from opposition figures within Israel who are pressuring him to avoid a full withdrawal. Moreover, Netanyahu is using the situation to attempt a rehabilitation of his government’s tattered image.
After the Gaza ceasefire exposed severe cracks in Israel’s political and military apparatus – especially as Palestinian resistance fighters emerged with renewed confidence and resilience – the embattled Israeli prime minister is desperate to project strength, particularly in the Lebanese context, as a way to recover from these reputational blows.
Unified resistance
This synchronized resistance across Lebanon and Palestine serves as a reminder of the region’s enduring struggle against occupation. As Israeli commentators acknowledge divisions within US policy circles – some supporting Israel’s attempts to prolong its occupation while others insist on adherence to withdrawal terms – Netanyahu’s agenda remains in disarray.
Reports of him lobbying President Donald Trump to permit the retention of five military sites in southern Lebanon show his desperation, but the people of Lebanon have already rendered this strategy futile.
The Lebanese resistance, bolstered by the actions of its citizens, has proven yet again that the occupation can and will be challenged.
Civilians liberated roughly 30 towns on Sunday, paving the way for the Lebanese army’s advance and signaling an unyielding determination to reclaim their sovereignty. While Israel may seek to manipulate international dynamics, the people of Lebanon have drawn a clear line: their land, their will, their victory.
Israel Considers Sending Weapons Seized in Lebanon to Ukraine
By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | January 26, 2025
Tel Aviv may be transferring Russian-made weapons that Israeli forces seized in southern Lebanon to Ukraine to be used in the fight against Russia. The potential arms shipments come following high-level meetings between Israeli and Ukrainian officials.
The potential arms shipments to Ukraine were first discussed by the Ukrainian Embassy in Israel, as was revealed on Facebook Tuesday. “During the meeting, the Ambassador thanked the interlocutor for a previously submitted proposal in the Knesset – to hand over weapons of Russian production to Ukraine seized by the IDF in Lebanon,” the post explained. “It is noted that this initiative would be an important step in recognizing the common threats facing both countries.”
On Wednesday, Israeli President Isaac Herzog met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “Among the main topics of our discussion were shared challenges, collaboration – particularly in the security sphere – and ways to achieve a just peace for Ukraine,” the Ukrainian leader posted on X.
Last year, Israeli forces invaded southern Lebanon and have been occupying much of the territory and preventing civilians from returning to their homes. During the operations against Hezbollah, Israeli forces are reported to have captured Russian-made weapons, including the Draganov sniper rifles, SPG-9 launchers, Kornet antitank missile, as well as Metis, Konkurs, Fagot, and Sagger missiles.
The Ukrainian Embassy said the increased ties between Russia and Iran are driving the potential arms shipments from Israel to Ukraine. “The sides also discussed the current joint challenges for both countries, in particular the military cooperation between Iran and Russia, which poses a threat to the national security of both Ukraine and Israel,” the Facebook post noted.
It’s unclear how large of a weapons cache Israeli forces have seized from Hezbollah. The Telegraph reports as many as 60% of the weapons were manufactured in Russia or the former USSR. The outlet also cited multiple Russian bloggers who reported that the weapons shipments from Israel to Ukraine are already underway.
Lebanon parliament elects Aoun as president, ending two years of deadlock
Press TV – January 9, 2025
Lebanese lawmakers have elected army chief Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s new president, putting an end to a two-year-long political deadlock in the crises-hit Arab country.
Legislators on Thursday chose Aoun after two rounds of voting in the 128-member parliament of the small Mediterranean country, which has been without a president since the end of the tenure of former president Michel Aoun, who is not associated with the newly-elected president, in October 2022.
Political neophyte Aoun, 60, is widely regarded as the favored candidate of the United States and Saudi Arabia, on whose financial support Lebanon relies as it works to recover from a 14-month bombardment by Israel mostly against the Arab country’s southern parts where the Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement is based.
Hezbollah, which had exchanged daily fire with the occupying regime from October 2023 until a ceasefire in November, had previously supported Suleiman Frangieh, the leader of a small Christian party in northern Lebanon, as its preferred candidate.
However, Frangieh announced his withdrawal from the race on Wednesday and threw his support behind Aoun, seemingly paving the way for the army commander.
Aoun secured 99 out of 128 votes in Lebanon’s deeply divided parliament, with support from across the political spectrum, including Hezbollah legislators and their rivals. His election ended a prolonged leadership vacuum that had stalled key reforms and heightened fears of a broader collapse amid the nation’s multiple crises.
Following his election as president on Thursday, Aoun, who had served as the 14th Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces since 2017, formally stepped down from his military role. He entered parliament to take the oath of office dressed in civilian attire.
Aoun will need to oversee the implementation of the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon while also establishing a new government capable of addressing postwar reconstruction.
In November, the World Bank provided a preliminary assessment estimating the war’s physical damage and economic losses at $8.5 billion.
However, any rebuilding efforts will be hindered by Lebanon’s severe economic crisis, a five-year downturn that commenced with a liquidity crisis in Lebanese banks. Since then, the country’s GDP has contracted by over a third.
Before Thursday’s parliamentary sessions, 12 attempts to elect a president had failed over the past two years.
Since October 2022, the small Mediterranean country has been functioning without a formal government, which has worsened a financial crisis that prompted Lebanon to default on $30 billion in Eurobond debt some five years ago.
Lebanon’s divided sectarian power-sharing system is often susceptible to deadlock due to both political and procedural challenges. The country, which is currently struggling with its crises, has experienced multiple prolonged presidential vacancies, including the longest one, which lasted nearly two and a half years from May 2014 to October 2016, ending with the election of former President Aoun.
Israeli forces set homes ablaze, block roads in southern Lebanon
Al Mayadeen | January 5, 2025
Israeli occupation forces made advances toward the town of Taybeh, opening fire with machine guns at homes, several of which were set ablaze by the invading units, Al Mayadeen’s correspondent in southern Lebanon reported on Sunday.
Explosions were also heard as the Israeli forces launched hand grenades during their infiltration into the neighborhood. In addition, the occupation forces erected an earthen berm to block the road linking the towns of Qantara and Taybeh.
Our correspondent further reported that Israeli forces carried out demolition operations on the outskirts of Aytaroun, followed by a barrage of machine gunfire aimed at the town, and a series of explosions at Tayr Harfa-Al-Jubayn junction.
These recent incidents bring the total number of Israeli violations since the implementation of the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon 40 days ago to more than 380.
Ongoing Israeli violations
Al Mayadeen’s correspondent in southern Lebanon reported that on Saturday morning, Israeli occupation forces carried out bombings between the towns of Odaisseh and Taybeh.
She noted that Israeli occupation forces continue bulldozing land in several towns, particularly in Houla, Bani Hayyan, and Markaba.
On Thursday, the Lebanese Army entered al-Naqoura to reposition its forces, following the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the area. This marked the third such Israeli withdrawal from territories occupied during the recent ground invasion.
Al Mayadeen’s correspondent in southern Lebanon reported that Israeli invading units were observed withdrawing from al-Naqoura’s neighborhoods toward Ras al-Naqoura and Alma al-Shaab while conducting sweeps with automatic rifles. At the same time, Israeli Merkava tanks continued to shell several homes in the area.
Our correspondent also noted that an Israeli military convoy, reinforced with eight Merkava tanks, a bulldozer, and Hummer vehicles, advanced from the town of Ramieh toward al-Salhani, al-Qawzah, and reached Wadi Mazlam near the outskirts of Beit Lif—territory that had not been accessed during the recent Israeli war on Lebanon.
However, Israeli soldiers conducted searches of homes and surrounding forests, and machine gun fire was heard within the village. Additionally, Israeli drones launched two missiles at the outskirts of Yater.
Hezbollah is “stronger and more resilient than steel” and “more powerful than ever before, as witnessed by the enemy,” affirmed Wafiq Safa, head of Hezbollah’s Coordination and Liaison Unit.
In his first media appearance after the war on Lebanon, Safa stated Sunday that Hezbollah is “ready for all challenges,” and “will stand with the people, behind them, and on the ground” to rebuild what was destroyed during the Israeli aggression.
During a tour in the southern suburbs of Beirut, specifically at the site where Hezbollah’s former Secretary-General martyr Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated by “Israel”, Safa stressed that the group will be “involved in every aspect” that impacts the morale of the people.
He added, “We have always stood and will continue to stand with the people of resistance, protecting them from any harm internally, and there will be no possibility for anyone to break our morale,” reassuring everyone that there is no need for concern.
Regarding whether Hezbollah will respond to Israeli violations, Safa revealed that Hezbollah’s capabilities have been restored and that the group has the ability to confront any aggression in the manner it deems appropriate.
He added that what happens after the 60-day period designated for the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation forces from Lebanon “is up to Hezbollah and its leadership.”
Safa also noted that Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will engage with US mediator Amos Hochstein regarding the Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement.
On the subject of electing a new Lebanese president, Safa asserted that Hezbollah does not veto the nomination of Lebanese Army Commander Joseph Aoun for the presidency but that of the leader of the Lebanese Forces party Samir Geagea, whose “project is destructive to Lebanon.”
Concerning the funeral of martyr Sayyed Nasrallah, Safa revealed that the ceremony will take place in the Southern Suburb after the 60-day period.
Elsewhere, he emphasized that martyr Sayyed Nasrallah’s “presence is embodied in the resistance, its fighters, and the people of resistance.”
What US mediation? 1000 Israeli violations in Lebanon go unchecked
The Cradle | January 2, 2025
Under the supervision of US special envoy and former Israeli soldier Amos Hochstein, Beirut and Tel Aviv reached a ceasefire agreement on 27 November after almost 14 months of intense conflict against the backdrop of the war on Gaza.
The Israeli military pledged to withdraw from Lebanese territory within 60 days of the agreement’s enactment.
To ensure compliance, a monitoring committee led by US General Jasper Jeffers was established, focusing on enforcing the cessation of hostilities and the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
Rampant Israeli violations
But Israel immediately undermined the truce, committing nearly 1,000 violations within the first month alone – one of many cases of the occupation state’s disregard for international agreements.
Additionally, occupation forces have continually obstructed the Lebanese army’s deployment at key points in southern Lebanon, and have leaked plans that Tel Aviv intends to maintain control over strategic areas in the country. Reports suggest there is an Israeli effort underway to establish a security buffer zone spanning from Abbad to the villages of Odaisseh and Kfar Kila.

Map showing areas of Israeli military presence (in yellow) south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon, following the declared ceasefire. (Updated December 2024)
Meanwhile, from the onset of the ceasefire, Hezbollah assured the Lebanese government that it would not retaliate during the 60-day truce period, adhering strictly to the agreement terms and allowing the government and army to address Israel’s daily provocations.
The ceasefire followed intense internal and international pressure on the resistance movement to halt its battle with Israel, especially as the latter began to dangerously expand its bombing targets across the country. Simultaneously, the Israelis – having failed to achieve their stated war objectives and taken daily troops losses in their ground invasion – were pushing hard for a truce, citing the need to prevent an escalation that could extend to Beirut, risking mass civilian casualties.
This agreement may not be ideal for either party, but it is feasible to implement. Israel achieved tangible successes but failed to crush Hezbollah or eliminate it as an organization. For Hezbollah, the priority was ending the war to halt the destruction, despite the damages it sustained.
Consequently, both sides reached an agreement that Hezbollah described as a reiteration of the 1701 Resolution. It was not a deal of humiliation or defeat, contrary to how the group’s adversaries are eager to portray it.
It is important to note that Hezbollah chose a middle path between Hamas’ call to ignite a broader conflict under the banner of “Al-Aqsa Flood” and a policy of non-intervention, given that the Palestinian movement’s leadership did not involve Hezbollah in its decision to go to war.
Ethically, Hezbollah opted to open a limited support front, clearly defining its objectives: to exhaust the Israeli military and pressure it into halting the assault on Gaza. However, this calculation later proved to be flawed.
When the support front escalated into a full-fledged war, Hezbollah declared that its aim was to stop the conflict. When Israel requested a cessation of hostilities, Hezbollah agreed under acceptable conditions.
Ultimately, after over a year of conflict sparked by the Hamas-led Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, Hezbollah and Israel reached a 13-point agreement mediated by the US and France. While Tel Aviv agreed to withdraw from Lebanese territory within 60 days, its actions during the ceasefire depict a relentless drive to achieve militarily what it could not during the war.
The destruction of Lebanese homes and towns during the first month of the truce already far exceeds that caused during the conflict, with villages such as Bani Hayyan, Markaba, Shama, Al-Bayada, and Wadi al-Hujayr suffering devastating damage.
Israel’s brazen violations are not just restricted to border towns. Its truce violations include the prohibited operation of war drones over Beirut and its southern suburbs, and substantial military strikes in villages across the eastern Bekaa Valley.
The US looks the other way
The ceasefire monitoring committee, led by Tel Aviv’s staunchest allies, has faced significant challenges, largely due to Israel’s unwillingness to comply with the terms of the truce.
Sources reveal to The Cradle that so far, two meetings have been held at the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) headquarters in Naqoura, southern Lebanon, with Israeli officers present, followed by a third meeting attended by Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati – without the Israelis present.
The sources added that the first meeting lasted just 40 minutes, limited to introductory discussions on core topics. The second session, however, was marked by discord, as the Israeli side failed to uphold previously agreed-upon terms.
During that meeting, it became apparent to all that while the Lebanese army had finalized and approved a deployment plan for the western, central, and eastern axes, the Israelis refused to present any withdrawal strategy. Instead, they shifted blame to the Lebanese army for what they called “slow deployment,” further suggesting that the 60-day truce deadline was merely symbolic, not binding for the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and intended only for the withdrawal of Hezbollah troops from south of the Litani River.
Israeli representatives went further, baselessly claiming that the Lebanese army had no intention of implementing the agreement’s provisions to withdraw Hezbollah from south of the Litani.
During the discussions, Lebanese General Edgar Lowndes is said to have stormed out of the meeting after heated exchanges with the Israeli side, which downplayed its repeated attacks in Lebanon as insignificant and refused to classify them as breaches of the agreement. The Israeli delegation specifically argued that their use of drones in Lebanese airspace was not a violation of the truce, suggesting that the air breaches would continue unchecked.
The lead US official – a general – brought Lowndes back to the meeting and tried to keep the proceedings more formal thereafter. Following the session, high-level contacts took place between various committee members, with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati gathering French and American officers and the UNIFIL Commander to emphasize the need for Israel to respect the signed agreement that the Israeli army would withdraw from Lebanese territory within the agreed upon deadline.
In this context, the US general confirmed that envoy Hochstein would participate in the next committee meeting on 6 January to confirm the ambiguous issues, and agreed with his Lebanese counterparts that Israel is violating the ceasefire through its actions.
Patience amid provocation
While Hezbollah has exercised restraint and refrained from delivering any significant response beyond a single retaliation at the “Ruwaisat al-Alam site belonging to the Israeli enemy army in the occupied Lebanese Kfar Shuba Hills,” Israeli provocations have continued to test the limits of the ceasefire on a daily basis. As a source close to Hezbollah informs The Cradle :
“We will be patient until the 60-day period expires and diplomatic opportunities are exhausted, and after that there is no solution but resistance.”
International mediators now face growing pressure to enforce the agreement, with Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri emphasizing the importance of French involvement in the monitoring process, given US partiality toward Israel.
The Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs filed a formal complaint with the UN Security Council, citing 816 violations between 27 November and 22 December. Prime Minister Mikati has called for the swift and complete implementation of Resolution 1701, cautioning that delays could destabilize the region further.
Beirut also called for “enhanced support for UNIFIL and the Lebanese army to guarantee the protection of its sovereignty and to create the necessary security conditions for restoring stability and normalcy in the south of the country.”
It is evident that Israel is leveraging its perceived upper hand to manipulate the ceasefire agreement, interpreting its terms to align with its strategic objectives. By acting as if the balance of power has irreversibly shifted in its favor, the occupation state not only challenges the Lebanese side but openly flouts the agreement with actions such as air violations, justified under the guise of self-defense.
These provocations, coupled with threats to reignite hostilities and forcibly expel Hezbollah, reveal a calculated effort to establish new facts on the ground that were never part of the original accord.
Israeli demolition campaign intensifies in southern Lebanon
The Cradle | January 2, 2025
Israeli troops advanced into and heavily attacked the southern Lebanese village of Beit Lif on 2 January, in violation of the fragile ceasefire that Tel Aviv has been continuously breaching since it took effect in late November last year.
“The Roumieh area between Beit Lif and Yater was subjected to enemy artillery shelling,” Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported on Thursday afternoon, coming as Israeli forces entered and searched homes in the area.
According to Al Manar’s correspondent in the south, the Israeli army pushed into Beit Lif with several Merkava tanks, military hummers, a bulldozer, and infantry forces and began demolitions in the town. The sounds of heavy explosions and gunfire were heard.
Earlier on Thursday, an Israeli drone targeted the vicinity of a farm between the towns of Beit Lif and Yater with two missiles.
The new ceasefire violations occurred a day after the Israeli military set fire to homes in the Aitaroun-Bint Jbeil district.
In accordance with the ceasefire agreement, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) entered the towns of Shamaa and Al-Bayada on 1 January. The two towns are among those that witnessed fierce clashes between the Lebanese resistance and the Israeli army during Tel Aviv’s failed ground operation in Lebanon, which began in early October and ended with the ceasefire on 27 November.
Al-Bayada and Shamaa were also heavily bombarded throughout the war that began in October last year.
NNA reported massive destruction of infrastructure – with entire neighborhoods and even the electricity network ravaged. “Everything was razed to the ground.”
Israel has violated the ceasefire – which is based on the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 – over 100 times since it took effect with deadly airstrikes, arrests of Lebanese citizens, troop advancements, and mass detonation campaigns in southern villages. Entire villages have been wiped out as a result of the demolition campaign.
Tel Aviv claims to be targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in the south, which the LAF was tasked to dismantle as per the agreement.
Israeli troops are required to withdraw from Lebanon within 60 days of the ceasefire’s announcement. So far, it has been over four weeks, leaving less than a month before the Israeli army must retreat, according to the agreement.
Security sources in Lebanon told The Cradle on 23 December that the Israeli army is unhappy with the LAF’s efforts to implement the ceasefire and is planning to maintain a presence in the south past the 60-day implementation period.
“Now is the opportunity for the Lebanese state to prove itself through political action,” Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem said in a speech on Wednesday, echoing recent comments by the resistance group’s MPs and officials.
Hezbollah officials have recently said that the current period represents a test for the Lebanese state regarding whether or not it will be able to protect the south from Israeli attacks and violations once the resistance is no longer present south of the Litani River.
“If the occupation takes any steps against Lebanon from the eastern front due to its expansion in Syria, we will carry out our national duty … anyone who believes that the resistance in Lebanon has weakened is deluded … We possess the resources and intellect to be in a position to confront the occupation. On the 61st day after the ceasefire, we will be in a position to make the Israeli enemy taste our wrath,” Hezbollah MP Ihab Hamadeh told Al Mayadeen on Wednesday.


Dr Rehiana Ali, a British neurologist, was been suspended last week by the Medical Practitioners Tribunal Service (MPTS) following complaints about social media posts on Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. The interim suspension, lasting 18 months and subject to review, prevents her from practising medicine pending a full investigation by the General Medical Council (GMC).
