What you need to know about the Iranian attack on Israel but will not find in mainstream news
By Gilbert Doctorow | April 15, 2024
Iran’s weekend massive drone, cruise missile and ballistic missile attack on Israel has now been covered in the global media, with the headlines announcing that 99% of the barrage was shot down by Israeli, U.S. and other friendly air defense systems. The question these media pose is what will be the Israeli response, as if that were a matter strictly to be decided by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet.
In fairness, I note that The Financial Times has also published a front page article setting out what it considers to be the Iranian perspective on the attack, namely that it was successful insofar as it demonstrated their country is not shying away from direct military confrontation with Israel and is confidently prepared to prosecute a full scale war if it comes to that. See “We’re crazier than you realize”: Iran delivers its message with attack on Israel. Tehran believes calibrated missile and drone barrage is enough to restore deterrent and bolster image.”
However, the Iranian position is much more nuanced and contains far greater threat not only to Israel but also to the entire United States presence in the region than the FT suggests. I say this on the basis of an analysis provided on last night’s edition of the Vladimir Solovyov talk show on Russian state television by a regular panelist, Semyon Arkadievich Bagdasarov, who is a leading Russian specialist on the region.
For those who wish to see and hear Bagdasarov’s 14 minutes on air in the original Russian, the link is https://all-make.su/22174-vecher-s-solovyovym-14-04-2024/ minutes: 27 – 41.
In what follows I offer a brief biographical sketch of Bagdasarov so that the seriousness of his remarks can be better appreciated. Then I will summarize what he said on air.
Aged 69, Bagdasarov was born in Central Asia in the Ferghana Valley, which passes through Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Accordingly, he has the proper birthright to his position since 2014 as director of the think tank called the Center for the Study of the Countries of the Near East and Central Asia. However, Bagdasarov reached this academic plateau after passing through a succession of military and civilian government posts, including the 5 years starting in 2007 as a Duma member from the ‘For a Just Russia opposition party of Sergei Mironov, which might be described as slightly to the Left of the ruling United Russia party.
Bagdasarov’s professional education was in a military academy and he ultimately retired with the rank of colonel. He then moved into government service first at the regional level and then as an expert to the Duma, to which, as I said above, he was later elected.
In line with what the FT article has said, Bagdasarov calls the Iranian attack on Israel a limited strike intended as a warning, but also yielding both specific tactical and strategic results.
On the tactical side, the swarming of drones was intended to activate the Iron Dome and other levels of Israeli air defense and to reveal the location of their component parts as well as to deplete the Israeli stock of relevant missiles.
Per Bagdasarov, Israeli claims to have shot down 99% of the incoming barrage should be taken with a grain of salt. The Iranians’ key targets in the attack were the Israeli air force base in the south of the country from which the Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus was launched two weeks ago and a military intelligence compound which had prepared that deadly strike. The actual extent of damage from Iranian missiles remains to be evaluated.
Bagdasarov explains that the Iranian attack was ‘limited’ because it consisted of rather slow moving drones and of missiles with small warheads. These were not Iran’s most advanced and lethal attack materiel, which has been held in reserve for any possible Round Two.
How many drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles does Iran have? Bagdasarov says no one knows exactly but it may well be 10,000 or more and includes several hundred highly advanced missiles which also have multiple warheads and so are very difficult to defend against. Over the past 20 years, Iran has bet its defense budget on missiles and drones, and it has a large-scale serial production of both. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional allies also have large stocks of these weapons, some of which are also fairly sophisticated. In particular, Hizbollah in Lebanon may have 1500 high quality missiles in its arsenal.
At the strategic level, Iran demonstrated its ability to coordinate a missile and drone attack on Israel with its regional proxies so as to maximize the threat coming from all directions.
Iran used the attack to achieve a political and military objective that has long eluded it. Teheran has now issued threats against Persian Gulf states to bomb any and all that allow the Americans to use their air space or otherwise facilitate Israel’s possible revenge attack on Iran from their territories. These states all fear a war and have now agreed to Iran’s demand. In effect, this negates decades of U.S. unchallenged domination in the Gulf.
Iran has specifically threatened the U.S. regional command in Qatar and the base of the 5th fleet in Bahrain.
The latter point is reflected in Biden’s latest urging restraint on Israel. Washington has understood that its forces in the region are now hostage to whatever Netanyahu may do against Iran as follow-up to this weekend’s barrage.
Furthermore, at the threat level, Iran has a still unused but clearly visible ace in the hole: its ability at will to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and thereby cut off nearly all export shipments of gas and oil from the region. The Straits are just 50 km wide and are easily controlled by Iran’s anti-ship missiles ashore. Such a closure would create havoc on global energy markets. We were reminded of Iran’s dominant position there several days ago when they captured a container ship owned by an Israeli millionaire which was traveling through and directed it to their own coast.
And what about Israel’s alleged plans to attack Iran’s nuclear installations? Bagdasarov insists that this is an impossible objective. Firstly, because the Iranian nuclear program is distributed among 200 centers spread across the vast country and many of these locations are in desert areas buried under 40 meters of sand. The Israelis might only destroy a couple of the best known nuclear centers. Secondly, because to reach their targets in Iran, the Israeli jets would require in-air refueling by American tankers, and it is scarcely credible that Biden will give his consent considering how the U.S. regional bases are under threat.
Iran fired this time only on military objects, but if they use not 300 but 10,000 missiles and drones then Israel will be obliterated. Hizbollah alone have 1,500 advanced missiles. Iran surely has real missiles and drones that are still more powerful. No one knows exactly how many. Over the past 20 years Iran placed its bets on drones and missiles. In the assortment, they have some very sophisticated multi warhead missiles that are unstoppable.
Later in the program (at 1 hour 36 minutes) a military commentator who is a frequent panelist on the Solovyov show, Lt General (retired), Yevgeny Buzhinsky, head of the Center of Applied Military Research of Moscow State University, seconded the estimation of Bagdasarov that this was just a warning, a PR exercise by Iran. As for the shoot-down, he noted that with its S400 and other systems Russia has probably the best air defense in the world, and yet they strain to reach the 99% interception that Israel has blithely claimed.
As host Vladimir Solovyov commented at the opening of the program, the principal fact is that the Iranians did it. They spat on the U.S. and its allies, and they just did what they believed was necessary. In consequence the world ‘built on rules’ counts for nothing.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Russia Slams UNSC for Ignoring Attack on Iranian Consulate, Calls for End to Bloodshed
Sputnik – 14.04.2024
UNITED NATIONS – Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzia criticized the UN Security Council for failing to act on the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria as he urged an end to bloodshed in the Middle East during an emergency UNSC meeting on Sunday.
“It is regrettable that unlike the meeting today, you did not propose to bring it to brief the Council on the 2nd of April,” he said, adding that Russia called an emergency briefing to discuss the Israeli strike against the consular premises in Damascus.
Nebenzia criticized Israel for not complying with the UN Security Council resolutions, which he said was “an obvious disrespect shown to the Council, to all of you who are here in the members seats, and a complete disregard to the decisions made by the Security Council.”
“This high level confrontation and bloodshed must be stopped We think it’s urgent for the entire international community to undertake all the efforts necessary to de-escalate the situation,” Nebenzia said.
Iran’s attack on Israel did not happen in a vacuum – it was a response to the shameful inaction of the UN Security Council, the Russian ambassador stressed.
“What happened on the night of April 14 did not happen ‘in a vacuum.’ Iran’s steps were a response to the shameful inaction of the United Nations Security Council [and] a response to Israel’s blatant attack on Damascus… by no means the first. Syria is constantly being bombed by Israel,” Nebenzia said.
On April 3, the US and UK refused to discuss Russia’s proposed draft UN Security Council statement on the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. London and Washington then cited the fact that there was no unity in the meeting’s assessment of what happened. On Sunday, an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council is taking place in connection with the retaliatory strike that Iran carried out on the territory of Israel. Meanwhile, shortly before that, Iran’s mission to the UN said that if the Security Council had condemned the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate and brought the perpetrators to justice, the need for Iran to punish the Israeli side “could have been eliminated.”
Russia calls for restraint on all sides involved in the incident with Iran’s attack on Israel, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN highlighted.
Russia calls on Israel to follow the example of Iran, which has said it does not want further escalation, Nebenzia said.
“We note Tehran’s signal of unwillingness to further escalate hostilities with Israel. We urge West Jerusalem to follow its example and abandon the practice of provocative forceful actions in the Middle East, fraught with extremely dangerous risks and consequences on the scale of the entire region, already destabilized as a result of the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation,” Nebenzia emphasized.
Ottawa fails to condemn Israeli damage to Canadian embassy
By Yves Engler | The Canada Files | April 13, 2024
An apartheid state committing genocide damaged a Canadian embassy while conducting a flagrant war crime. But Ottawa has remained silent about an incident designed to ignite a regional war.
Two weeks ago, the Israeli Air Force murdered 16 people in strikes on Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus. They reportedly killed two top Iranian generals, two civilians and a dozen militants. The illegal strikes obviously impinged on Syrian sovereignty and contravene multiple conventions such as the 1963 Vienna Convention on Consular Relations.
Dozens of governments condemned Israel’s violation of international law. The European Union criticized the strikes and a senior United Nations official told an emergency meeting of the Security Council that the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises and personnel must be respected. The Coordinating Bureau of the 120 nation Non-Aligned Movement released a statement that “strongly condemns the heinous attack conducted by Israel against Iranian diplomatic premises and representatives in Damascus.”
For its part, Ottawa failed to criticize Israel’s actions even as it has emerged that Israel’s strike destroyed a number of windows in the Canadian embassy, which is located next to Iran’s. While formally closed since 2012, the damaged embassy remains Canadian property.
Ottawa was also mum when Israel killed over 50 people in Syria, 72 hours earlier. To the best of this author’s knowledge, the Trudeau government hasn’t criticized any of Israel’s innumerable — 33 times since the start of this year — illegal strikes in that country. Nor has Ottawa criticized a series of (presumed) Israeli killings in Iran though they regularly criticize that country’s actions.
As Israel has bombed Lebanon, Syria and Palestine in recent years, Ottawa has sold it arms and maintained a multitude of bilateral and multilateral military ties. Additionally, the Trudeau government has turned a blind eye to the inducement of Canadians to join or assist the Israeli military in violation of the Foreign Enlistment Act and to registered charities fundraising for the Israeli military in contravention of Canada Revenue Agency rules.
Israel’s attack on Iran’s diplomatic outpost in Syria is a major escalation. The Iranians have said they will respond with a significant assault (reportedly Tehran told Washington that if they impose a ceasefire in Gaza, they will hold back). Israel has responded to Iranian threats by claiming it will further escalate the conflict. On Wednesday Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, posted to X, “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran.” President Joe Biden said the US will support Israel.
As has been speculated for some time, Benjamin Netanyahu wants to draw the US into a war with Iran. Netanyahu has long hyped the Iranian threat and wants to have the US weaken the only power in the region that hasn’t been cowed by Israel/US dictates.
Netanyahu has a personal interest to continue fighting. He’s likely going to be ousted as prime minister and may even end up in jail on corruption charges when the fighting stops. Additionally, Israel has failed in its bid to liquidate Hamas in Gaza, Palestine. After six months of Israeli-perpetrated horrors, most of Hamas’ top leaders are alive, uncaptured, and Israel hasn’t even recovered those kidnapped on October 7.
More generally, instigating wars is a national pastime for Israel. (“Israel is an army with a state” goes the saying). Israel has bombed Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, Tunisia and Iraq. Fifteen years ago, Israeli military historian Zeev Maoz explained in Defending The Holy Land: A Critical Analysis of Israel’s Security & Foreign Policy:
“Between 1948 and 2004, Israel fought six interstate wars, fought two (some say three) civil wars, and engaged in over 144 dyadic militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) that involved the threat, the display, or the use of military force against another state. Israel is by far the most conflict prone state in modern history. It has averaged nearly four MIDS every year. It has fought an interstate war every nine years. Israel appears on top of the list of the most intense international rivalries in the last 200-year period.”
Later in the book, Moaz said:
“There was only one year out of 56 years of history in which Israel did not engage in acts involving the threat, display, or limited use of force with its neighbors. The only year in which Israel did not engage in a militarized conflict was 1988, when Israel was deeply immersed in fighting the Palestinian uprising, the intifada. So, it is fair to say that during each and every year of its history Israel was engaged in violent military actions of some magnitude.”
Maoz concludes (describing the Nakba as a “war of independence”):
“None of the wars — with a possible exception of the 1948 war of Independence — was what Israel refers to as Milhemet Ein Brerah (‘war of necessity’). They were all wars of choice or wars of folly.”
For its size, Israel may be the most violent state in the history of humanity. Canada has seldom criticized and in fact enabled this rogue state, as it unleashes ever more death and destruction.
Yves Engler is the author of 13 books. His latest book, available now, is “Canada’s Long Fight Against Democracy”.
Strike on Israel Shows US Bases Near Iran Are ‘Achilles Heel’ – Analyst
By Svetlana Ekimenko – Sputnik – 14.04.2024
Fears of a greater Middle East escalation were triggered after Iran launched a massive drone and missile attack against Israel, aided by Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis. Iran said the attack was in response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed seven members of the elite Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Iran’s massive retaliatory attack on Israel from its own territory is a sign that the conflict could “escalate out of control.”
Michael Maloof, a former senior security analyst in the office of the US secretary of defense, told Sputnik that the first ever direct Iranian attack on Israel set a dangerous precedent.
“My concern is that this could easily escalate into something not only between Iran and Israel, but beyond the Middle East region,” he said.
Iran’s assault, which it stated was an act of “self-defense” after the Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, was originally intended to be a “limited” one, said Maloof.
Iran first sent in “swarms of drones with lights on as a sign of psychological warfare,” but sending in cruise and ballistic missiles by Tehran was a “distinct escalation,” said Maloof.
The scale of Iran’s attack on Israel suggests that Tehran was sending a message, demonstrating that it possesses “extraordinary capabilities,” said Maloof.
“They have built up their missile capabilities extraordinarily, they have drones, cruise missiles, and some of the most accurate ballistic missiles in the region right now,” he added.
“I think that this clearly showed that Iran has a capability. I think it’s limited. They cannot do this on a sustained basis. And they did send their slower ordinance, such as drones, UAVs. But they also claim to have hypersonics,” Maloof noted.
“I think that if Israel were to retaliate, then I think they would engage the more sophisticated missiles and hypersonics, potentially, if they have them,” He added. “Then you’re talking some very serious escalation in the entire region. It’s already unprecedented, but this escalation could be even ratcheted up that could conceivably bring in other and extend beyond just this region.”
All signs point to the potential of a larger regional war erupting, Maloof warned, adding that everything now depends on Israel’s reaction. “Is this a tit-for-tat, a one-on-one, or a further escalation?” he asked.
“I think we are already getting that message from Netanyahu, his ministers, that they are going to respond… How they respond is going to determine the extent of that escalation through the [Middle East] region,” stressed Maloof. “I am quite concerned that neither side is going to stand down at this point.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prepared to “continue an endless war in the region,” suggested Maloof, adding that he “knows he had the US backing,” and could opt to strike now, taking advantage of this “window of opportunity.”
“He may not get such an opportunity under a potential Trump administration coming in [after the US elections in November],” said the expert.
Looking at possible scenarios for Israel’s response, he noted that Tel Aviv had already stated publicly an intention to “go after the nuclear sites in Iran.”
“That is going to be exceedingly difficult, plus I don’t know that they have the power projection to do that on any consistent basis, and secondly, I don’t believe they have the so-called ‘bunker busters’ that would be needed to be able to drill down through the mountains to reach those facilities. The US has been reluctant to give Israel these bunker buster [munitions],” said Maloof.
As for the US, it has already “gotten sucked into this,” Maloof noted.
US President Joe Biden issued a statement on Iran’s attack against Israel after speaking with Netanyahu by phone. Biden condemned the attack “in the strongest possible terms”.
He reaffirmed Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to help support Israel’s security. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US does “not seek escalation” but will “continue to support” Israel’s defense. “I will be consulting with allies and partners in the region and around the world in the hours and days ahead,” he added.
“There is already a call in Congress to put on fast-track the legislation to approve new ordinance, and the $14 billion for Israel,” said the pundit. He remarked that the Pentagon might “empty its stockpiles to provide support to Israel,” and recalled that besides giving Israel bombs and artillery, the US supports its Iron Dome air defense system, whose missiles will need to be replenished.
“If you have a swarm, wave after wave of swarms, Israel is going to be very hard pressed to be able to defend against that. And that’s why the US now is coming in, and that gets the US directly involved,” Maloof pointed out. “And that could then open up US assets in the region.” We have got some 35 bases that surround Iran, and they thereby become vulnerable. They were meant to be a deterrence. Clearly, deterrence is no longer on the table here. Now they become the American Achilles heel because of their vulnerabilities to attack. They’ve got air defense systems, but they’ve got to be replenished. And given that you got active war going on right now in the region, it’s going to be difficult to replenish those supplies.”
According to the ex-Pentagon analyst, much now also depends upon what stockpiles Iran has and “with what consistency they can keep sending these wave after wave of drones and ballistic missiles… Ultimately, if they have them, the hypersonics… and there’s no defense against hypersonics. Not even Israel’s ‘Arrow’ system, which is designed to deal with ballistic missiles… And apparently, that’s been engaged tonight, as well as the Iron Dome.”
The United Nations (UN) Security Council is to meet on Sunday in response to a request from Gilad Erdan, Israel’s permanent representative to the United Nations. The meeting is scheduled for 4 pm New York time (2000 GMT), as announced by the UN Department of Global Communications.
“I’m hoping that the UN Security Council can take this up and maybe some adult supervision could begin to intervene in this and maybe try to bring it to a halt for now,” Maloof said. “But right now, this minute, it doesn’t look like it. And again, it’s going to depend upon the response from the Israelis if they go directly into Iran in response.”
The current media frenzy surrounding the Iran strike is “disproportionately amplified compared to the actual events transpiring on the ground,” Dr Ahmed Al Ibrahim, a Riyadh-based political analyst, told Sputnik.
He added that any true aftermath of Iran’s strike will be discernible after a “thorough assessment.”
“Indeed, I dismiss the current situation as largely sensationalized, a “bubble” inflated by media coverage and public attention,” the political analyst said.
He expressed skepticism that any Middle Eastern countries would “willingly entangle themselves in the unfolding chaos.” Arguing that “Iran’s capacity to directly threaten Israel is limited by geographical constraints,” Ibrahim agreed that there is “potential for escalation.”
Game Over? Persian Gulf Powers Reportedly Refuse to Give US Access to Bases for Anti-Iran Strikes
By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 13.04.2024
Going back to the Gulf War in 1991, the US has depended on regional allies for large-scale military operations across the Middle East. Now, as tensions between Israel and Iran rise and the US-led unipolar world order comes under strain, America’s traditional partners are apparently refusing to walk in lock step with Washington.
Persian Gulf countries have reportedly told the United States not to launch any attacks against Iran from their territory or airspace amid seething regional tensions.
Sources, including a senior US official told the Middle East Eye that Gulf monarchies have been “working overtime” on the diplomatic track “to shut down avenues that could link them to a US reprisal against Tehran or its proxies from bases inside their kingdoms.”
The countries include regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Kuwait, with their leaderships reportedly “raising questions” on the details of US basing agreements, and taking steps to prevent the use of their Iran-adjacent bases against the Islamic Republic.
NATO member Turkiye has also reportedly barred the US from using its airspace for strikes against Iran, but Sputnik has not been able to independently verify this information.
“It’s a mess,” a senior US official said, referring to the headache the Biden administration faces as it prepares for a potential Iranian retaliatory strike against its top regional ally Israel following Tel Aviv’s April 1 attack on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus, Syria.
The Middle East Eye report follows a report by Axios on Friday citing US officials who said that Iran has privately warned the US that it will target American forces in the Middle East if Washington gets involved in a military confrontation between Iran and Israel.
The US has an estimated 40,000+ military personnel at bases dotting the Middle East, including the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts at least 10,000 troops, and serves as the forward headquarters of United States Central Command – the combatant command responsible for military operations across the Middle East. Nearby Bahrain hosts up to 7,000 troops and the US Fifth Fleet – which operates in the Persian Gulf, the Red and Arabian Seas, and part of the Indian Ocean. The US also has a 15,000-troop garrison in Kuwait, at least 5,000 troops in the UAE, and about 2,700 troops and fighter jets at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Oman hosts a few hundred US troops, and allows the US Air Force to conduct overflights and landings, and warships to make 80 port calls annually.
The Gulf powers’ increasingly independent foreign policy is potentially a major setback for Washington, which for many decades after World War II (and especially after the Cold War) was able to rely on the Persian Gulf monarchies for its military operations in the oil-rich region.
Regional countries led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken a series of steps recently to wean themselves off of dependence on the US economically, politically and militarily, with Riyadh moving to break the petrodollar monopoly in the oil trade with China, pausing its military campaign against Yemen’s Houthi militia, restoring diplomatic ties with Iran and, together with Abu Dhabi, joining the BRICS Plus bloc.
The Palestinian-Israeli crisis has driven Gulf state leaders and their populations further from the idea of the establishing relations with Israel, and chilled ties with the US thanks to the Biden administration’s full-fledged support for Tel Aviv in the course of the Gaza War.
IRGC seizes Israel-linked container ship in Strait of Hormuz
Press TV – April 13, 2024
The special naval forces of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) have seized Israel-linked MSC Aries container ship near the Strait of Hormuz, official news agency IRNA reports.
The ship was impounded by the Sepah Navy Special Force (SNSF) in a heliborne operation and rappelling of forces on the ship’s deck, the agency said Saturday.
“The ship has now been directed towards the territorial waters of our country,” IRNA said.
The Portuguese-flagged ship, operated by Zodiac Maritime, is owned by Israeli real estate, energy, technology and shipping magnate Eyal Ofer, it added.
Zodiac Maritime is part of the Israeli billionaire’s Zodiac Group.
A video released by IRGC shows SNSF commandos rappelling down onto a stack of containers sitting on the deck of the vessel.
A crew member on the ship could be heard saying: “Don’t come out.” He then tells his colleagues to go to the ship’s bridge as more commandos come down on the deck.
Reports said the MSC Aries had been last located off Dubai heading toward the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. The ship had reportedly turned off its tracking data, which has been common for Israeli-affiliated ships moving through the region.
The incident comes amid Israel bracing for Iranian retaliation after the regime’s April 1 strike on a building in the Iranian embassy compound in the Syrian capital of Damascus, which killed seven IRGC military advisors, including two generals.
How Big a Factor is Iran in the War on Gaza?
By Ted Snider | The Libertarian Institute | April 10, 2024
In both Ukraine and Gaza, the Joe Biden administration has adopted the dangerous doctrine of war management in which, while not stopping a war diplomatically, it attempts to contain it and prevent it from becoming a wider war into which the United States might get drawn.
This difficult to calibrate policy is being threatened in both theaters.
In the Middle East, two Israeli actions have escalated the calibrated strikes between Israel and Iran, up to the threshold that Iran could absorb without feeling the necessity to respond.
One was an airstrike in southern Lebanon that killed Ali Ahmad Hassin, an important Hezbollah commander. The more significant and volatile one was the April 1 attack on an Iranian embassy compound in Damascus that killed seven Iranian officers, including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the top Iranian Quds Force commander in Lebanon and Syria.
Zahedi is the most senior Iranian commander to be killed since war broke out on October 7. But what made this strike escalatory and dangerous is that it targeted an embassy compound under Iranian sovereignty. “When they attack our consulate,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech on April 10, “it is as if they have attacked our soil.” Khamenei called the decision to escalate to such an attack a “mistake” that “must be punished.”
A direct response by Iran against Israel could risk the nightmare scenario the United States has sought to avoid through its policy of managing wars. In that scenario, Iran retaliates in kind against Israel and Israel responds, drawing Iran and Hezbollah into the war in a manner that pulls in the Houthis as well as militias in Iraq and Syria. A Houthi source told Responsible Statecraft that “In case a full-scale war was to erupt between Hezbollah and Israel, Yemen and its leadership will stand with the party [Hezbollah] militarily, politically and economically” in a way that could even include “sending foot soldiers.” Such a force aligned against Israel could risk drawing the United States into the war.
In a speech on April 5, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah called the attack on Iran’s Damascus embassy “a turning point” and said that it is “certain that the Iranian response to the [bombing] of the Iranian consulate is coming without a doubt.”
He said, perhaps clearly for the first time, that Hezbollah could intervene in the event of a full-scale Israel-Iran war. “Everyone must prepare themselves, arrange their matters and be careful,” he said, “when the Iranian side responds to the targeting of the Iranian consulate and to the Zionist enemy’s possible response to the Iranian response.”
Nasrallah said that an Iranian response is inevitable and seemed to caution against the size of the Israeli counter-response, saying, not only that “everyone must prepare themselves,” but reminding that Hezbollah has “not used the main weapons nor the main forces and we have not called in the reserves.”
Nasrallah may have been leveraging a fuller Hezbollah entrance into the war to caution Israel and the United States against an even more escalatory Israeli counter-response to the response Iran feels it must deliver. Iran may have gone one step further, leveraging its entrance into the war in an attempt to stop the war altogether.
As Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute first reported, an Arab diplomatic source told Jadeh Iran that Iran will respond to the Israeli attack on its embassy with a direct attack on Israel unless the United States orchestrates a ceasefire in Gaza. According to reporting in Jadeh Iran, “Iran has vowed to respond to the assassination of Zahedi.” However, in an “exchange of messages between Tehran and Washington” whose aim is “to contain escalation,” an Iranian proposal “stipulated a ceasefire in Gaza as a price” for not striking Israel in retaliation.
Though a causal line cannot be drawn, it is interesting that, in an interview recorded on April 3, President Joe Biden said, “I think what [Netanyahu’s] doing is a mistake. I don’t agree with his approach,” and then said, “So what I’m calling for is the Israelis to just call for a ceasefire, allow for the next six, eight weeks, a total access to all food and medicine going into the country.”
It is also interesting that the United States is participating in the latest round of ceasefire negotiations in Cairo. In an April 8 press conference, National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said that CIA Director Bill Burns was in Cairo for the talks. He said that the Biden administration “is doing everything possible to broker a deal that secures the release of all the hostages and leads to an immediate ceasefire. And there’s simply no higher priority.”
CNN went further, reporting that Burns wasn’t just present or participating, but that he “presented a new proposal to try to bridge the gaps in ongoing negotiations to broker a deal to bring about a ceasefire.”
Hezbollah may be responding to the killing of one of their commanders by leveraging the threat of its entering the war to prevent the war from entering an uncontrolled series of escalations. Iran may be responding to the airstrike on its embassy that killed a general by leveraging its entering the war to stop the war altogether. How big a factor Iran is, and how powerful its leverage, may help determine what comes next, how big the Israeli counter-response to Iran’s promised response is and even, perhaps, the prospects of a future ceasefire.
Israel takes dangerous step in the conflict by attacking Iranian diplomats
By Lucas Leiroz | Strategic Culture Foundation | April 5, 2024
Attacking embassies, consulates and diplomatic personnel is an intolerable crime under international law. The inviolability of diplomatic buildings is a global principle that enables the elementary conditions necessary for international relations. Even in situations of total war and high-intensity conflicts, respect for diplomacy must be observed by the belligerent sides to prevent even worse escalations of violence from occurring.
Israel, however, appears unwilling to respect any international norm. Recently, the Zionist State bombed an Iranian diplomatic building, close to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. At least seven Iranian citizens were murdered in the operation, including diplomats and a senior Revolutionary Guard commander. As expected, Tehran has promised retaliation and is already mobilizing its military forces for a possible conflict situation.
In fact, the act of bombing diplomatic installations can be considered terrorism, as it deliberately aims to kill civilians, without any military objective. As we know, attacks against civilians have become increasingly frequent in the Zionist war strategy. The Israeli regime simply appears to see all Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as legitimate targets, which leads the IDF to destroy all of the city’s civilian infrastructure and generate an ever-increasing number of non-military casualties among local residents.
However, it appears that Israel is also expanding its attacks on civilian targets to the international level. The destruction of one of the buildings of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus was certainly one of the most serious moves ever made in the current conflict. To make matters worse, Israeli officials have promised to carry out more attacks against Iranian and Shiite public figures, regardless of where they are located. Apparently, from now on Tel Aviv will openly adopt a rhetoric of “hunting” against Iranians.
Obviously, this situation will only generate more escalations. Israel is accustomed to attacking targets with little power to react, such as the stateless Palestinians or Syria, which is recovering from a brutal civil war. Iran, however, is a country in a different position. Tehran is the largest military power in the Middle East, having impressive weapons production and combat mobilization capabilities. The country controls the production of the main current military equipment, with modern long-range missiles and drones among its main tools of war.
Furthermore, Iran has more than only its military and Revolutionary Guard, controlling a complex network of anti-Zionist movements across the Middle East – the so-called “Axis of Resistance”. Armed organizations such as Hezbollah, the Iraqi Resistance, Syrian Shiite militias, the Houthis and the Palestinian guerrillas themselves are members of the Axis and are willing to fight a war in favor of Iran at any time. Even if Israel strives to destroy targets linked to regular Iranian forces, it will be difficult to neutralize the top leaders of all these organizations at the same time.
An open war between Iran and Israel would be catastrophic for the region from all points of view. Analyzing the military power of both countries, it is possible to say that Israel is militarily weaker. However, Tel Aviv has nuclear weapons. The possibility that Iran also has such weapons cannot be ruled out, but at least publicly there is no information to prove this. What is known, however, is that the Iranians already have full uranium enrichment capacity and control the industrial process that could lead to the production of an atomic bomb.
In a war scenario, Iran would also be favored by its complex geography. As a large country and with mountains that protect some of its important cities and industrial centers, Iran is less vulnerable to collapse in the face of foreign incursions than Israel. Furthermore, Tehran would mobilize the Axis of Resistance militias to attack Israel on several flanks, quickly making the Zionist state unable to fight given the existence of multiple fronts. In this scenario, Israel would be forced to choose between two fates: surrender or the use of its extreme arsenal.
However, history shows us that Iran has a great capacity to achieve military objectives without generating collateral damage. The country is used to asymmetric warfare, responding with patience and high precision to the provocations suffered, without escalating the regional situation into total war. Tehran will certainly do its best to retaliate against Israel without a formal declaration of war. It is possible that there will be more Axis of Resistance attacks against occupation forces in the coming days, just as it is possible that Israeli and American targets will be destroyed in high-precision raids.
It is not yet certain that there will be an open war, but it is absolutely clear that there will be a serious escalation. Israel is making a serious mistake by thinking that it will go unpunished after attacking the greatest military power in the Middle East.
Strike on Iranian Consulate Sign of Status Quo as US, Allies Let Israel ‘Cross All Red Lines’
By Ian DeMartino – Sputnik – 03.04.2024
On Monday, Iran said that Israeli warplanes struck the Iranian embassy in Syria, killing seven military advisers, including two generals. On Tuesday, Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed revenge.
As the US and its allies have continuously allowed Israel to “cross all red lines” in the past, it should be no surprise that it attacked an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Dr. Seyed Mohammad Marandi told Sputnik’s The Critical Hour on Tuesday.
“The Israeli regime is only able to carry out these attacks because the United States, the Europeans, the Canadians, the British, the Australians allow them to cross all red lines. When they’re allowed to commit a genocide, when they’re allowed to carry out a Holocaust, in the words of the president of Brazil, then, obviously, attacking an embassy shouldn’t be unexpected.”
However, the United States and Europeans continue to parrot Israel’s lies, Marandi said, noting Israeli forces have attacked Al-Shifa hospital twice now, and the first time they falsely claimed it contained a tunnel network and Hamas command center.
“Now, they still try to repeat their lies even though it’s much more difficult,” Marandi explained. “They’ve wrecked all the hospitals. They’ve wrecked all the infrastructure. They shoot people carrying white flags.”
“There’s so much documentation that there’s no way for the Americans and Europeans to escape the reality that this is a genocidal and criminal regime from top to bottom. Yet still, they behave as if this is a normal country, as if this is a country that’s exercising its right and that it may be making mistakes.”
Marandi and co-hosts Wilmer Leon and Garland Nixon acknowledged the unlikelihood of the US not having advance notice about the attack; however, Marandi postulated it would showcase Israel’s lack of respect for the US if they didn’t.
“If the Americans didn’t know, then it just shows that the Israelis have no respect for the United States, that the Israelis don’t care what the implications are for the United States in this region and globally, because there is no doubt that the Iranians are going to respond. This is no ordinary attack.”
Unlike the US and Europeans that allow Israel to “get away with anything,” this attack is a red line “that the Iranians cannot ignore.”
“The Iranians are going to hit back hard. And if the Americans didn’t know, then that means the Israelis are putting the Americans at risk of a very complicated situation, but they don’t care.”
With the protests against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ongoing, and some US politicians calling for elections in Israel, Marandi stressed the importance of remembering that he is not alone in carrying out the genocide in Gaza. “Let’s not allow the Americans to pin the blame on Netanyahu. Overwhelmingly people in Israel support the genocide, and, apparently, more than half believe it should be even more intense.”
“The problem goes way beyond Netanyahu.”
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New Book
Breast Cancer: Before You Consent
A new Unbekoming paperback
Lies are Unbekoming | September 18, 2026
Peter Gøtzsche reviewed every randomised mammography screening trial ever conducted for the Cochrane Collaboration. Cochrane’s headline is that, assuming a 15% mortality reduction, one woman in 2000 avoids dying of breast cancer over ten years. Ten are overdiagnosed and treated. Two hundred experience false alarms.
But that headline assumes the reduction. When Gøtzsche looked only at the trials with adequate randomisation — the higher-quality ones — the reduction disappeared. No effect on breast cancer mortality. No effect on all-cause mortality.
This is the Cochrane finding, published in the establishment’s own database of systematic reviews.
No woman being asked to consent to a mammogram this week knows it.
That is why the new Unbekoming paperback exists. … continue
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