MQ-9 Drone Incident: Biden’s Dangerous Escalation
By Scott Ritter – Sputnik -16.03.2023
A US surveillance drone crashed off the coast of Crimea after an encounter with a Russian fighter aircraft. What does this incident say about the current state of the war in Ukraine and where Russia and the US might go from here.
In 2015, the United States established a permanent training facility in Yavoriv, western Ukraine, for the express purpose of training Ukrainian soldiers for combat against Russia.
At that time the conflict in Ukraine was an internal affair, pitting the Ukrainian Army against Ukrainians of ethnic-Russian background who had rebelled against a US-backed coup which, in February 2014, saw the constitutionally elected government of President Viktor Yanukovych replaced by a pro-American government.
This new Ukrainian government, hand-picked by the US, was deeply infused with radical ultra-nationalism linked to the ideology of Stepan Bandera and the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, or OUN, which fought alongside Nazi Germany during the Second World War and whose members were responsible for the murder of hundreds of thousands of civilians.
Many of the Ukrainians being trained by the US military were affiliated with the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, an organization which many in the US Congress at the time found so odious that the passed an amendment to the defense authorization act prohibiting US taxpayer dollars from being used to train its members.
These restrictions aside, there can be no doubt that the purpose of the US training mission in Ukraine was to prepare the Ukrainian military to go to war against Russia. That the US training not only instructed the Ukrainians troops on modern combined arms maneuver warfare, but also sought to elevate the Ukrainians to the same standard used to train the forces of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), provided the first inkling that any future conflict between Ukraine and its disenfranchised ethnic Russian population that involved Russia would be far more than a simple confrontation between two regional neighbors, but a larger war between Russia and the US and NATO—the so-called “collective west”, using Ukraine as a proxy.
This reality was amplified further with the provision by the US and NATO of advanced anti-tank missile systems and other lethal military assistance.
Even before Russia initiated the Special Military Operation, in February 2022, the United States, the United Kingdom, and NATO began a program of intelligence sharing with the Ukrainian armed forces at the highest levels. Once the Russian troops moved across the border, the nature of this intelligence relationship shifted away from providing indications and warning of an impending attack, to the provision of operational and tactical intelligence about Russian military disposition, capabilities, and intent that was used by Ukraine to target Russian forces.
While the US and its NATO allies are understandably reticent about the nature of this intelligence, and the sources from which it is derived, over time it has become clear that every available intelligence collection platform is being used to gather relevant data about Russian military operations in support of the Special Military Operation.
It is also clear that this intelligence is used by joint operational planning cells comprised of US/NATO/Ukrainian forces to develop targets in real time, which are then transmitted to Ukrainian forces.
One of the more ubiquitous intelligence resources employed by the US in support of Ukraine is the MQ-9 Reaper. The MQ-9 is a large a large unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operated by the Air Force. It is remotely operated by a two-person team from a ground control station that is connected to the MQ-9 using satellite equipment. The team includes a qualified pilot who is responsible for flying the aircraft and an enlisted aircrew member who is charged with operating any onboard sensors or weapons the MQ-9 might be carrying.
The MQ-9 has a wingspan of 66 feet, is 36 feet long, 12 feet high, and weighs approximately 4,900 pounds. It is capable of flying at altitudes as high as 50,000 feet and has a range of some 1,400 miles. It can carry a wide variety of weapons and intelligence collection pods. Each MQ-9 costs about $32 million. The MQ-9 Reapers operating over the Black Sea are flown out of a Romanian Air Force base in Campia Turzii by members of the US Air Force’ Detachment 1, 31st Expeditionary Operations Group.
On March 14, 2023, an MQ-9 Reaper operating out of Campia Turzii was flying in international airspace over the Black Sea, west of Crimea. This was a standard flight profile for the MQ-9 Reaper, one that had the Russians concerned, given its proximity to sensitive Russian military installations.
Ukraine had a history of launching operations against Russian forces in Crimea using aerial and underwater drones, and the potential for intelligence collected by the MQ-9 Reaper being used in support of such attacks was very real. For this purpose, the Russian military had declared certain areas off the coast of Crimea as being off limits.
The US, however, does not recognize Russia’s claim to Crimea, or for that matter the four new territories of Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk, that joined the federation following referendums held in September 2022 and, as such, does not recognize any claim regarding the establishment of no-fly zones by Russia in support of its ongoing military operations against Ukraine. The decision to fly the MQ-9 Reaper was made knowing Russia would object, or worse.
Indeed, Russia dispatched a pair of Su-27 fighter aircraft to intercept the MQ-9 Reaper. After making 19 passes at the Reaper, the Su-27’s conducted what can only be described as aggressive maneuvering designed to either compel the MQ-9 Reaper to depart the area, or else bring it down. After one particular incident, which may or may not have involved one or more Su-27 aircraft dumping fuel onto the Reaper, the MQ-9 lost control and crashed into international waters off the coast of Crimea.
It is believed that Russian forces dispatched from Crimea recovered most, if not all, the wreckage, including the top-secret intelligence pod that had been mounted under the left wing of the aircraft. If this is the case, critical US intelligence collection capabilities would have been compromised, allowing Russia to better protect itself from sensors like the one carried onboard the downed MQ-9 Reaper aircraft.
While the US State Department has declared that the US will continue to fly missions in international airspace, the Commander of US forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli has ordered all MQ-9 Reaper operations to be halted pending a review of the incident and a decision on how best to proceed.
The fact that the US is using the MQ-9 Reaper to fly in direct support of Ukrainian military forces make the aircraft a direct participant in the conflict, and as such a legitimate target for Russia. Russia’s decision not to shoot the MQ-9 down, but rather provide multiple opportunities for the US aircraft to disengage and leave the contested airspace, is indicative of Russia’s desire to avoid unnecessary escalation of the conflict, especially one that could have US and Russian forces engaged in direct combat.
One of the options that the US could consider would be to fly the MQ-9 with a US fighter escort. But this would be contested by Russia, leading to the possibility of a dogfight that could result in casualties on both sides, and the probability of escalation. At the end of the day, the US will probably seek to fly an MQ-9 Reaper on a course that comes close to, but does not violate, a declared Russian no-fly zone, after which MQ-9 Reaper flights along the Crimean coast will probably be discontinued.
There are other ways to collect the intelligence that the MQ-9 Reaper gathers which do not put US military assets at risk, and which do not provide the possibility of military escalation between the US and Russia.
Such a decision would be a sharp departure from the confrontational stance taken to date by the US when it comes to intelligence collection targeting Russia. However, the devolving military situation in Ukraine, with the Ukrainian military facing a decisive defeat in Bakhmut and in general, alters the risk-gain analysis that accompanies the decision to fly missions such as the one that resulted in the downed MQ-9 aircraft. With little chance of a Ukrainian victory in sight, the US will be looking for ways to deescalate, rather than escalate, its involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.
Whether or not the MQ-9 Reaper incident will result in a top-down review of incidents of this nature, for example prompting the Biden administration to reflect on the apparent hypocrisy of the US approach toward responding to the Chinese balloon “threat”, namely by shooting the balloon down, while condemning the more restrained approach taken by Russia in responding to a genuine military threat on its borders in an active warzone, is yet to be seen. Such an abut-face would be unlikely, given the current political climate, where Russophobia runs rampant.
The fact remains that as long as the US is engaged in the implementation of a wartime policy that seeks the strategic defeat of Russia, the possibility for rational, logic-based policy formulation and implementation on the part of the US is almost nil.
The shortest path for the normalization of US-Russian relations lays in a decisive victory being achieved by Russia over Ukraine and the collective west in the shortest time possible. Such an outcome would force the US and its NATO allies to reexamine their approach toward Russia based upon the new realities that would accrue from such an outcome.
Russia Had The UN-Enshrined Right To Direct The US Drone Away From Crimea
By Andrew Korybko | March 15, 2023
The over year-long NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine just saw its first semi-kinetic engagement between those two on Tuesday after Moscow directed an allegedly armed US drone away from Crimea. Washington claims that its opponent’s jets dumped fuel on its drone that was supposedly in international waters prior to somehow or another damaging its propeller in order to force it into the Black Sea. The Kremlin, however, claims that the drone was in restricted airspace and denies hitting it.
Regardless of whatever the truth might be, Russia had every right to intercept that hostile object. The US drone, irrespective of whether or not it was armed, was obviously conducting reconnaissance on the peninsula that this Eurasian Great Power reunified with nine years ago in preparation of Kiev attempting yet another attack against it. US-Ukrainian intelligence cooperation is well-known and the former regularly helps the latter calibrate its strikes against Russian forces.
Even in the unlikely event that the US is telling the truth about its drone supposedly being in international waters, this doesn’t change the abovementioned military calculation related to Russia directing that hostile object away from Crimea in order to preempt forthcoming attacks from Kiev. All countries have the UN-enshrined right to self-defense, which is what Russia would have been applying in that scenario, even if it did allegedly dump fuel on that drone and subsequently damage its propeller.
About those last two claims, they’d actually show that Russia was behaving responsibly if they did indeed transpire despite its denial, unlike the US’ description of them as irresponsible. There’s no doubt that Russia could have simply shot down that drone if it really wanted to, but that could have dramatized its right to self-defense, thus inadvertently running the risk of a serious crisis that could easily be exploited by Washington’s warmongers.
Instead, it either directed the US drone away from Crimea or damaged its propeller in some uncertain way, either version of which resulted in that hostile object plummeting into the Black Sea. The indisputable outcome is that this mission didn’t succeed in helping Kiev calibrate whatever forthcoming strike it was planning against Crimea, thus saving lives at the expense of an unmanned aerial vehicle. It also sent the message that Russia isn’t weak and will defend its military red lines against anyone.
The average Westerner was under the false information warfare-driven perception that the entirety of Russia’s armed forces are in crisis as a result of the special operation, though the truth is that they’re still extremely strong and have only been holding back in that campaign for political reasons. President Putin only authorized a special operation and not an official “war”, hence why he ordered the former to be fought with comparative restraint, at least for the time being.
Even so, Kiev is still losing and its forces are actually at serious risk of collapse according to the Washington Post’s surprisingly truthful report about that crumbling former Soviet Republic’s true state of military affairs that was published earlier this week. This places the drone incident in context since it suggests that the US wanted to help Kiev score a symbolic success through a forthcoming strike against Crimea in order to distract from this “politically inconvenient” reality.
Segueing back to the direct subject of this analysis, it should now therefore be completely understandable to all observers why Russia either directed the US drone away from Crimea after it trespassed in restricted airspace or employed semi-kinetic means to down it in international waters. No matter the version of events that one ascribes to, the fact of the matter is that Russia had the UN-enshrined right to preemptively defend itself from Kiev’s US-facilitated imminent attack.
What Was US Doing Flying a Combat Drone Off Russia’s Coast?
By James Tweedie – Sputnik – 15.03.2023
Tuesday’s alleged downing of a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea by Russian fighters raised fears of military escalation between the nuclear powers. International affairs and security analyst Mark Sleboda pointed out the MQ-9 Reaper was an armed UAV, flying near Russian territory.
A statement from the US European Command late on Tuesday said two Russian Su-27 jet fighters had intercepted a US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea.
The statement claimed the drone, of the same model used in armed attacks on civilians in Afghanistan and Pakistan, was on an “Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance” mission over “international waters.”
It alleged that the Russian planes buzzed the drone, dumped fuel in its path and finally clipped its rear-mounted propeller, causing it to crash into the sea.
Mark Sleboda told Sputnik on Tuesday that the US military’s protests over the incident glossed over the drone’s offensive role.
“There’s a big question of what the US is doing flying a Reaper drone in the Black Sea, which is a combat drone,” Sleboda pointed out. “It is not an air intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance platform.”
The Russian Ministry of Defence said the Reaper was detected near the Crimean Peninsula, which voted to reunite with Russia in 2014 after the Euromaidan coup d’etat in Ukraine.
The drone was flying “in the direction of the state border of the Russian Federation” with its identification transponders turned off, the MoD said, “violating the boundaries of the temporary airspace regime established for the special military operation.” It said the unmanned combat air vehicle lost control and crashed after making radical manoeuvres.
“The Russian aircraft did not use on-board weapons, did not come into contact with the unmanned aerial vehicle, and returned safely to their home airfield,” the ministry clarified.
The analyst stressed that Ukraine had already launched a series of attacks on the Crimea with both aerial and underwater drones, provided by the US and UK and guided by intelligence gathered by those countries’ surveillance aircraft.
“Numerous drone attacks that have been launched against Crimea in the past four weeks, all of which have been brought down through a combination of air defense, and Russia’s excellent electronic warfare systems,” Sleboda said. “But there is always a U.S. surveillance drone flying over the Black Sea coordinating these activities at the time.”
He said that while Russia still acknowledges that the US is not “actively participating” in the attacks, it is telling the US: “We know what you’re doing” and to “knock off the bull faeces.”
Russian MoD on US Drone Incident: UAV Fell Into Black Sea Due to Own Sharp Maneuvering
Sputnik – 14.03.2023
MOSCOW – US drone MQ-9 fell into the Black Sea on Tuesday morning due to its own sharp maneuvering, Russian fighters did not come into contact with it and did not use weapons, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
“As a result of sharp maneuvering around 09:30 Moscow time [06:30 GMT], unmanned aerial vehicle MQ-9 went into an uncontrolled flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface. The Russian fighters did not use airborne weapons, did not come into contact with the unmanned aerial vehicle and returned safely to their home airfield,” the ministry said.
The ministry clarified that on the morning of March 14, the airspace control of the Russian Aerospace Forces had recorded the flight of US unmanned aerial vehicle MQ-9 over the Black Sea in the region of the Crimean peninsula in the direction of the Russian state border.
The flight of the drone “was carried out with transponders turned off, violating the boundaries of the area of the temporary regime for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace and published in accordance with international standards,” the defense ministry noted.
Russian fighters from the air defense forces on duty were scrambled in order to identify the intruder, the ministry added.
Meanwhile, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder on Tuesday declined to disclose whether the US MQ-9 Reaper drone that crashed over the Black Sea after the intercept with Russian aircraft was armed.
“I’m not going to get into the specific profile of this particular aircraft. As you know the MQ-9 does have the ability to be armed,” Ryder said during a press briefing.
Ryder also added, that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has not talked to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu after the incident.
Nord Stream blasts staged by a state-level actor – Putin
RT | March 14, 2023
Russian president Vladimir Putin has dismissed as “nonsense” recent claims that the attack on the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines might have been carried by “Ukrainian activists.” The president made the remarks on Tuesday during his visit to an aircraft plant in the capital city of Russia’s Buryatia republic, Ulan-Ude.
“I’m sure this is complete nonsense. An explosion of this kind – of such power, at such depth, can only be carried out by specialists, and supported by the entire power of a state, posessing certain technologies,” Putin told reporters.
Media reports, suggesting that a shadowy “pro-Ukrainian group” might have been behind the blasts on the pipelines at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, emerged last week. The New York Times cited its anonymous sources saying that “no American or British nationals were involved” in the operation.
Separately, multiple German outlets reported that the country’s investigators probing the blasts had found a yacht, allegedly used for the attack, which belonged to a Polish-based firm but was “apparently owned by two Ukrainians.”
The yacht reports emerged shortly after a bombshell investigation by veteran American journalist Seymour Hersh, who said US President Joe Biden’s administration had staged the attack on the pipelines with assistance from Norway.
According to his sources, the explosives were planted by US Navy divers last June under the guise of a NATO exercise and detonated remotely in September. The White House was quick to dismiss the allegations by the Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, branding them “utterly false and complete fiction.”
US accuses Russia of drone downing
RT | March 14, 2023
A US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drone was brought down on Tuesday morning over the Black Sea, after what the European Command claimed as“an unsafe and unprofessional intercept” by two Russian jets.
The “Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance” platform was “operating within international airspace” when the airplanes approached, EUCOM said in a statement. One of the Su-27s “struck the propeller of the MQ-9,” so the operators ditched the drone into the sea.
“Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner,” the US military complained, accusing the Russians of “a lack of competence.”
General James Hecker, the commander of US Air Forces in Europe and Africa, said the drone was “conducting routine operations in international airspace” and that the crash resulted in a “complete loss” of the MQ-9.
EUCOM said the US “routinely” operates drone flights in international airspace to “bolster collective European defense and security” and “support Allied, partner, and US national objectives.” Hecker said the flights will continue, calling on the Russians “to conduct themselves professionally and safely.”
Neither the Kremlin nor the Russian Defense Ministry have yet commented on the alleged incident.
The US has admitted to providing Ukraine with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance information in the conflict against Russia, while insisting it is not a party to the hostilities. US and NATO spy aircraft routinely fly over the Black Sea and approach Crimea, sometimes right before Ukrainian forces launch attacks on the Russian peninsula.
Last week, a US strategic bomber flew a practice run for a missile attack on St. Petersburg, while staying in international and NATO airspace.
The Pentagon routinely uses the phrase “unsafe and unprofessional” to describe incidents when interceptors chase off US drones, spy planes or fighter jets that came too close to the Russian border.
Germany is not a sovereign nation – Moscow
RT | March 14, 2023
Germany is facing an inevitable economic decline after losing its access to Russian energy, but cannot do anything about it because it is not a sovereign nation, the secretary of the Russian National Security Council has claimed.
“Germany tried for many years to build its economy on a combination of cheap Russian energy and advanced German technologies. Like no one else, it realizes that the terrorist attack against the [Nord Stream pipelines] will definitely cause the German economy to decline further,” Nikolay Patrushev said in an interview published in Argumenti i Fakti newspaper on Monday.
The advantages that German businesses enjoyed by getting access to Russian fuel has long irritated the governments of the US and the UK, he continued. But Berlin is not at liberty to continue cooperating with Moscow, “because the German nation is not independent.”
“Washington imposes on Berlin its economic and environmental agenda and keeps a 35,000-strong military force on its soil. For years, the White House controlled [former chancellor] Angela Merkel, and now it forces the German leadership to side with the version of the pipeline sabotage that is advantageous to the US authorities,” Patrushev said, describing America’s treatment of Germany as “humiliating.”
The remarks were part of Patrushev’s comments on the sabotage of the undersea pipelines, which were built to supply Germany with Russian natural gas. The Nord Stream links were ruptured by powerful explosions last September in what Russia has called a blatant terrorist attack.
A series of articles published by Western media this month claimed that Western intelligence services believe that a “pro-Ukrainian group” not associated with any government was behind the attack. Patrushev argued that, considering the training and equipment that such a complicated operation required, this scenario would seem plausible only to people who “cannot think logically.”
Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh had previously reported that the operation was ordered by US President Joe Biden and conducted by a US-Norwegian team of saboteurs. Both nations deny this allegation.
Hersh said Washington wanted to prevent Berlin from making a U-turn on its decision to phase out Russian gas supplies in response to the Ukrainian crisis. Liquified natural gas, which is produced by American companies and costs significantly more, took over a large portion of the European energy market previously held by Russian fuel.
DeSantis Says Further Involvement in Ukraine Conflict Not in US National Interest
Sputnik – 14.03.2023
WASHINGTON – Florida governor Ron DeSantis said that further involvement in the Ukrainian crisis goes against US national interests and Washington should focus on defending the homeland instead.
On Monday, conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson published on Twitter the responses given by potential presidential candidates to a six-point questionnaire on Ukraine.
“While the U.S. has many vital national interests – securing our borders, addressing the crisis of readiness within our military, achieving energy security and independence, and checking the economic, cultural, and military power of the Chinese Communist Party – becoming further entangled in a … dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them,” DeSantis said in response to the questionnaire.
DeSantis, a potential 2024 presidential candidate, stated that the Biden administration’s “blank check” policy on Ukraine distracts the country from what he considers to be the most pressing challenges.
The US should seek a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine conflict, DeSantis said, noting that he opposes deliveries of F-16s or other weapons that would allow Kiev to engage in offensive operations beyond its borders.
“These moves would risk explicitly drawing the United States into the conflict and drawing us closer to a hot war between the world’s two largest nuclear powers. That risk is unacceptable,” he said.
DeSantis also noted that US policies have only driven Moscow closer to Beijing.
Russia’s hypersonic response to latest NATO and Kiev regime escalation
By Drago Bosnic – March 14, 2023
In the last several days, multiple sources have published information regarding the Kiev regime’s usage of a number of NATO weapons and munitions, including the JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) bombs. JDAMs are standard unguided freefall/gravity bombs (so-called “dumb bombs”) equipped with a guidance kit that converts them into all-weather PGMs (precision-guided munitions). Guided by an integrated inertial guidance system combined with a GPS receiver, JDAMs have a declared range of up to 30 km, although this has been extended with newer versions, such as the JDAM-ER (up to 70 km). Precisely this type was given to the Neo-Nazi junta in recent weeks, according to the US Air Force Europe (USAFE) command.
According to The War Zone, USAF General James Hecker, head of USAFE, as well as NATO’s Allied Air Command and US Air Forces Africa (AFAFRICA), confirmed this during last week’s media roundtable.
“Recently, we’ve just gotten some precision munitions [to Ukraine] that had some extended range and go a little bit further than the gravity drop bomb and has precision [guidance],” Hecker said, adding: “That’s a recent capability that we were able to give them probably in the last three weeks.”
The exact type of the JDAM-ER provided to the Kiev regime is not entirely clear, although General Hecker himself used the designation GBU-62. The original weapon is used exclusively in naval warfare, but this one seems to have been modified for use against ground targets. And while it’s not entirely clear what platform the Neo-Nazi junta forces are using to deploy these weapons, General Hecker hinted that they were most likely integrated on existing Soviet-era jets in the same way as the US-made AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles). Since last year, HARMs have been used by the Kiev regime forces’ MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets to target Russian air defenses. It’s very likely that this is the case, although it’s not impossible that the Su-24 and even Su-25 jets could be used for this purpose.
Local sources have reported the use of JDAMs on March 10, specifically in the vicinity of Bakhmut (Artyomovsk). It should be noted that such weapons require extensive ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets, which the Kiev regime simply doesn’t have. This only leaves NATO as the side directly providing targeting data. And while this is nothing new, as the United States and its NATO vassals have been doing this for over a year now, it does represent a new level of escalation, prompting Russia’s express response. According to the latest battlefield reports, Moscow responded with its own PGMs, specifically smart bombs used by the now legendary Su-57, as well as mass usage of air-launched hypersonic weapons.
The Kiev regime troops tasked with air defense recently reported that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) used at least six 9-A-7660 “Kinzhal” air-launched hypersonic missiles at once, complaining that they have no means of intercepting such weapons. Deployed since at least 2017 and used by modified MiG-31K/I superfast interceptors and Tu-22M3 long-range bombers/missile carriers, “Kinzhals” are some of the most advanced weapons in the history of warfare, being capable of not just using standard and thermonuclear warheads, but also their sheer speed and the resulting kinetic energy to neutralize targets of both tactical and strategic importance. Not even NATO itself has any means of intercepting such weapons, while it is yet to deploy anything remotely similar.
The Russian military previously announced that the scale of production of the hypersonic missile is being streamlined and expanded significantly, most likely by using the same production lines for the ground-launched “Iskander” hypersonic missile with which it has a high commonality in terms of design. The weapon has been used at least since March 18, 2022, when it obliterated Neo-Nazi junta facilities near the Polish border. And while it can certainly be considered an “overkill” against the Kiev regime forces, launching up to six “Kinzhals” at once is most likely a clear message to the increasingly aggressive US-led political West. This possibility is further reinforced by reports from certain DPR sources which are claiming that a command center packed with NATO personnel was one of the targets for the hypersonic weapon.
In addition, the Su-57 was also confirmed to be using new types of PGMs specifically designed for the stealth jet. The weapon in question is a derivative of the Kh-38M air-to-ground missile. On March 12, various local Ukrainian sources shared footage showing the remains of what appears to be the “Grom” (“Thunder” in Russian) PGM. The Tactical Missiles Corporation (KTRV) developed two versions of the weapon. The first (“Grom-1”) is a tactical cruise missile with a range of 120 km. The second version, dubbed “Grom-2”, had its engine removed and additional explosive payload added instead, turning it into a high-precision glide bomb. Its range is up to 50 kilometers. In addition to key battlefield advantages, both weapons can also be considered a clear message to NATO, whose massive mainstream propaganda machine has been insisting for over a year that Russia is both running out of weapons and unable to produce advanced PGMs.
Drago Bosnic is an independent geopolitical and military analyst.
EU Empties the Arsenals to Fill the Arsenals
By Manlio Dinucci | Global Research | March 12, 2023
Defense ministers of the 27 EU countries, meeting in Stockholm, approved the plan – presented by Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy – for “joint procurement of large caliber munitions.”
The meeting was attended by the Ukrainian Defense Minister (despite the fact that Ukraine is not part of the EU), who “explained what Ukraine’s military needs are.” Borrell stated “We are in times of war and we have to have a war mentality.” He then outlined the Plan, which includes three steps:
1) Draw from the stockpiles of EU member states artillery shells, particularly 155 mm, and supply them immediately to Ukraine. The money comes from the European Peace Fund (EPF), which has already earmarked 3.6 billion euros (paid for by EU citizens) for this purpose.
2) Realize an Agreement among the 27 EU member states for the joint purchase of 155 mm projectiles from the side, signing the first seven-year contracts as early as next month. This is a “massive order” both to restore and increase national stockpiles and to secure supplies to Ukraine
3) Ensuring the long-term increase of ammunition production in Europe by supporting Defense industries to secure supplies to Ukraine in the long run. (The EU plans to supply it with about one million artillery shells).
Borrell also reported that “by the end of March, our Military Assistance Mission will have trained more than 11,000 Ukrainian soldiers. By the end of the year, we expect to have trained 30,000 soldiers.”
For support to Ukraine, the EU has allocated 18 billion euros (again paid for by European citizens).
Josep Borrell summed up the purpose of the Plan in these words,
“To win the peace, Ukraine must win the war. And that is why we must continue to support Ukraine to win the peace.”
The European Union thus openly descends into war with Russia as part of the increasingly dangerous U.S.-NATO strategy.
The assassination of Konstantin Malofeev, CEO of the Tsargrad Group, was foiled in Moscow.
This is the same type of bomb attack with a bomb placed under the car as the one by which journalist Daria Dugina was killed in August 2022. It is part of a series of terrorist attacks against Russian journalists and media managers carried out by Ukrainian intelligence services under U.S.-NATO direction.
The Washington scenario in phase two is to fight Russia to the last European
By Gilbert Doctorow | March 12, 2023
My latest essay on the wrongheadedness of Belgian and French labor leaders fiddling while Rome burns elicited a number of Contact messages that are too important to keep to myself. What is at issue is how we read the scenario for the further course of the ongoing war in and over Ukraine: will it go on for years at the present level of intensity or is some devastating escalation to be feared in the coming months when the long-promised Ukrainian counter-offensive gets under way.
Allow me to say up front that no one knows for sure. But some observers point to schisms within the Washington establishment, in particular within the State Department, over how determined Russia is to react to violation of its red lines.
One can blame Vladimir Putin all one wishes for the restraint in prosecuting this war that is misinterpreted as cowardice or indecisiveness in the halls of power in Washington. Assigning blame for the misreading of Russia’s intentions changes nothing. The result is that the more hawkish side of the Washington establishment is urging upon the President measures that risk the onset of a full-blown war between Russia and the European powers in the immediate future.
I say “European powers” rather than NATO, because nearly all commentators agree that the U.S. has no intention of putting its own soldiers and homeland at risk when it can play with self-sacrificing proxies. The incredible acceptance of such rules by European leaders has been demonstrated manifestly by German Chancellor Schulz’s silence over the U.S. planned and executed destruction of the Nord Stream II pipelines.
Stage one of the Ukraine war as scripted by the USA was to fight against Russia to the last Ukrainian. Stage two is to fight against Russia to the last European.
In the past few weeks, the USA has delivered to Bremerhaven in Germany and to Gdansk in Poland vast quantities of military hardware that is not going to Kiev but is being prepared for a war with Russia to be fought by either of those states with or without NATO backing. A week ago, one of the US “Doomsday Planes” that coordinate action in a nuclear war came to Europe via Iceland. Smart observers noted this could be an exercise to prepare nuclear attacks on Russia using warheads and delivery systems already on European soil.
Let us remember that Victoria Nuland remains the most important personality in the State Department, head and shoulders above her nominal boss, Blinken. This is the lady who famously, while planning the coup d’etat of February 2014 that overthrew Ukrainian President Yanukovich, was recorded as telling the then U.S. ambassador to Kiev “fuck the EU.” Well, according to information in the public domain that is exactly what she is cooking up today and we, Europeans, are in the soup.
Nuland is said to be the loudest mouth calling for provision to Kiev of long range precision missiles for a summer attack on Crimea which will surely elicit a game-changing level of violence in the response from Russia, possibly entailing strikes against the logistical centers in Poland, Romania and Germany which are delivering the new weapons systems to Ukraine. There are ways this can happen which will make invocation of NATO’s ‘one for all and all for one’ Article 5 problematic.
This is not to say that the United States is not at the same time preparing a back-up scenario in case the Russians go for the principal villain and not for the European implementers. In the past week, a nuclear capable B-52 bomber of the U.S. Air Force is said to have been rehearsing an attack on St Petersburg.
In conclusion, I ask those of my European readers who are leaders in financial institutions, in wealth management, in manufacturing industry, in global shipping, in universities and in widely respected think tanks (from my LinkedIn account I know that some of you are daily followers of these essays), I ask you to use your voices, in public and in private to save Europe from the disaster that may befall us in a matter of months. Salvation will come only when several more European heads of state join Viktor Orban in voting against further arms to Kiev and for an immediate cease-fire. What we need now is definitive peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev based on the principle of a neutral Ukraine.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023
China steps up, a new era has dawned in world politics
BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | INDIAN PUNCHLINE | MARCH 11, 2023
The agreement announced on Friday in Beijing regarding the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the reopening of their embassies is a historic event. It goes way beyond an issue of Saudi-Iranian relations. China’s mediation signifies that we are witnessing a profound shift of the tectonic plates in the geopolitics of the 21st century.
The joint statement issued on Friday in Beijing begins by saying that the Saudi-Iranian agreement was reached “in response to the noble initiative of President Xi Jinping.” The dramatic beginning goes on to state that Saudi Arabia and Iran have expressed their “appreciation and gratitude” to Xi Jinping and the Chinese government “for hosting and sponsoring the talks, and the efforts it placed towards its success.”
The joint communique also mentioned Iraq and Oman for fostering the Saudi-Iranian dialogue during 2021-2022. But the salience is that the United States, which has been traditionally the dominant power in West Asian politics for close to eight decades, is nowhere in the picture.
Yet, this is about the reconciliation between the two biggest regional powers in the Persian Gulf region. The US retrenchment denotes a colossal breakdown of American diplomacy. It will remain a black mark in President Biden’s foreign policy legacy.
But Biden must take the blame for it. Such a cataclysmic failure is largely to be traced to his fervour to impose his neoconservative dogmas as an adjunct of America’s military might and Biden’s own frequent insistence that the fate of humankind hinges on the outcome of a cosmic struggle between democracy and autocracy.
China has shown that Biden’s hyperbole is delusional and it grates against realities. If Biden’s moralistic, ill-considered rhetoric alienated Saudi Arabia, his attempts to suppress Iran met with stubborn resistance from Tehran. And, in the final analysis, Biden literally drove both Riyadh and Tehran to search for countervailing forces that would help them to push back his oppressive, overbearing attitude.
The US’ humiliating exclusion from the centre stage of West Asian politics constitutes a “Suez moment” for the superpower, comparable to the crisis experienced by the UK in 1956, which obliged the British to sense that their imperial project had reached a dead end and the old way of doing things—whipping weaker nations into line as ostensible obligations of global leadership —was no longer going to work and would only lead to disastrous reckoning.
The stunning part here is the sheer brain power and intellectual resources and ‘soft power’ that China has brought into play to outwit the US. The US has at least 30 military bases in West Asia — five in Saudi Arabia alone — but it has lost the mantle of leadership. Come to think of it, Saudi Arabia, Iran and China made their landmark announcement on the very same day Xi Jinping got elected for a third term as president.
What we are seeing is a new China under the leadership of Xi Jinping trotting over the high knoll. Yet, it is adopting a self-effacing posture claiming no laurels for itself. There is no sign of the ‘Middle Kingdom syndrome,’ which the US propagandists had warned against.
On the contrary, for the world audience — especially countries like India or Vietnam, Turkey, Brazil or South Africa — China has presented a salutary example of how a democratised multipolar world can work in future — how it is possible to anchor big power diplomacy on consensual, conciliatory politics, trade and interdependence and advance a ‘win-win’ outcome.
Implicit in this is another huge message here: China as a factor of global balance and stability. It is not only Asia-Pacific and West Asia who are watching. The audience also includes Africa and Latin America — in fact, the entire non-Western world that forms the big majority of world community who are known as the Global South.
What the pandemic and the Ukraine crisis have brought to the surface is the latent geopolitical reality that the Global South rejects the policies of neo-mercantalism pursued by the West in the garb of ‘liberal internationalism.’
The West is pursuing a hierarchical international order. None other than the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell blurted this out in an unguarded moment recently with a touch of racist overtone when he said from a public platform that ‘Europe Is a garden. The rest of the world Is a jungle, and the jungle could Invade the garden.’
Tomorrow, China could as well be challenging the US hegemony over the Western Hemisphere. The recent paper by the Chinese Foreign Ministry titled ‘US Hegemony and Its Perils’ tells us that Beijing will no longer be on the defensive.
Meanwhile, a realignment of forces on the world stage is taking place with China and Russia on one side and the US on the other. Doesn’t it convey a big message that on the very eve of the historic announcement in Beijing on Friday, the Saudi Arabian foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud landed suddenly in Moscow on a ‘working visit’ and went into a huddle with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov who was visibly delighted? (here, here and here )
Of course, we will never know what role Moscow would have played behind the scenes in coordination with Beijing to build bridges between Riyadh and Tehran. All we know is that Russia and China actively coordinate their foreign policy moves. Interestingly, on March 6, President Putin had a telephone conversation with Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi.
Audacity of hope
To be sure, the geopolitics of West Asia will never be the same again. Realistically, the first sparrow of spring has appeared but the ice was melted for only three or four rods from the shore. Nonetheless, the sun’s rays give hope, signalling warmer days to come.
Conceivably, Riyadh won’t have any truck further with the diabolical plots hatched in Washington and Tel Aviv to resuscitate an anti-Iran alliance in West Asia. Nor is it in the realms of possibility that Saudi Arabia will be party to any US-Israeli attacks on Iran.
This badly isolates Israel in the region and renders the US toothless. In substantive terms, it scatters the Biden administration’s feverish efforts lately to cajole Riyadh to join Abraham Accords.
However, significantly, a commentary in Global Times noted somewhat audaciously that the Saudi-Iranian deal “set a positive example for other regional hotspot issues, such as the easing and settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And in the future, China could play an important role in building a bridge for countries to solve long-standing thorny issues in the Middle East just as what it did this time.”
Indeed, the joint communique issued in Beijing says, “The three countries [Saudi Arabia, Iran and China] expressed their keenness to exert all efforts towards enhancing regional and international peace and security.” Can China pull a rabit out of the hat? Time will tell.
For the present, though, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement will certainly have positive fallouts on the efforts toward a negotiated settlement in Yemen and Syria as well as on the political instability in Lebanon.
Besides, the joint communique emphasises that Saudi Arabia and Iran intend to revive the 1998 General Agreement for Cooperation in the Fields of Economy, Trade, Investment, Technology, Science, Culture, Sports, and Youth. All in all, the Biden administration’s maximum pressure strategy toward Iran has crashed and the West’s sanctions against Iran are being rendered ineffectual. The US’ policy options on Iran have shrunk. Put differently, Iran gains strategic depth to negotiate with the US.
The cutting edge of the US sanctions lies in the restrictions on Iran’s oil trade and access to western banks. It is entirely conceivable that a backlash is about to begin as Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia — three top oil/gas producing countries start accelerating their search for payment mechanisms bypassing the American dollar.
China is already discussing such an arrangement with Saudi Arabia and Iran. China-Russia trade and economic transactions no longer use American dollar for payments. It is well understood that any significant erosion in the status of the dollar as ‘world currency’ will not only spell doom for the American economy but will cripple the US’ capacity to wage ‘forever wars’ abroad and impose its global hegemony.
The bottom line is that the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is also a precursor to their induction as BRICS members in a near future. To be sure, there is a Russian-Chinese understanding already on this score. The BRICS membership for Saudi Arabia and Iran will radically reset the power dynamic in the international system.
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From the Archives
Fact File : Civilian Internment 1939 – 1945
BBC – Compiled in 2003
Internment of civilian nationals belonging to opposing sides was carried out in varying degrees by all belligerent powers in World War Two. It was also the fate of those servicemen who found themselves in a neutral country.
At the outbreak of war there were around 80,000 potential enemy aliens in Britain who, it was feared, could be spies, or willing to assist Britain’s enemies in the event of an invasion. All Germans and Austrians over the age of 16 were called before special tribunals and were divided into one of three groups… continue
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