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How does the China-brokered Saudi-Iranian normalization affect Israel?

By Robert Inlakesh | RT | March 17, 2023

A key goal of both the Israeli and American governments is to foster the normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and part of the strategy to make this happen was to unite the two against what has been depicted as a common enemy, Iran. The Saudi-Iranian rapprochement now appears to have thrown a spanner in the works of such efforts, and hence enraged the Israelis.

After five rounds of talks throughout the span of two years, Iran and Saudi Arabia were unable to reach a compromise for the re-establishment of diplomatic ties, something China has now managed to broker in a shocking turn of events. Based upon the long rivalry between Tehran and Riyadh, US and Israeli policy towards Saudi Arabia has been based on combating a common enemy shared between all sides. Although the US government itself has not reacted with open animosity to the sudden change in regional dynamics, the Israelis are publicly interpreting this as a negative development.

In June 2022, the Wall Street Journal reported that a previously undisclosed meeting had taken place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, whereby a number of Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, had met with the Israeli military chief of staff at the time, Aviv Kochavi. Part of the discussions that took place was allegedly geared towards forming an Israeli-Arab defense alliance. Although no such alliance was formed, it was largely speculated at the time that US President Joe Biden’s visit to both Israel and Saudi Arabia the following month would include discussions on this topic. Despite the failure of the US and Israel so far to put together such an alliance, it is clear that part of the strategy for achieving normalization has been to secure defense interests.

Across the Israeli political spectrum, from both the coalition government and opposition, finger pointing has been taking place, in attempts to pin the blame for the perceived failure of Israel to prevent Saudi-Iranian normalization. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has attempted to shift the blame onto the former government, an idea refuted by former Israeli Mossad head Efraim Halevy as “factually incorrect.” On the other hand, former Israeli PM Naftali Bennett has called the agreement “a serious and dangerous development for Israel.” Yair Lapid, another former PM and current leader of the opposition, also said it is an “utter and dangerous failure of the Israeli government’s foreign policy.”

The big question now is whether the Chinese-brokered normalization agreement will negatively impact potential normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Reuters reported that, according to an unnamed senior Israeli official, the Saudi-Iranian deal will have no significant impact on Israeli-Saudi relations. It is also not clear whether the agreement has any clauses to do with Israeli normalization. According to Carmiel Arbit from the Washington-based Atlantic Council, the Saudis could be attempting to conduct a balancing act the way the United Arab Emirates has. The UAE, which signed its own normalization deal with Israel in 2020, has since 2019 managed to de-escalate tensions with Iran and is currently maintaining cordial ties with both sides.

It is not clear, however, whether the model of Abu Dhabi will be applicable for the Saudis. Riyadh, simply put, has a lot more to lose than the Emiratis, due to its wide regional entanglements and domestic constraints, and hence it has chosen to maintain a distance from the Israelis at this time. The internal political crisis in Tel Aviv may also play a crucial role in the Saudi decision to push forward with the normalization of ties with Iran, as instability within Israel, coupled with a potential escalation in the conflict with the Palestinian people, could severely hinder a formal diplomatic breakthrough.

One crucial result of Saudi-Iranian normalization, however, is not necessarily to do with Israel’s own relations with the Saudis. Combating Iran, specifically its nuclear program through coercive measures, is an active policy position on both sides of the political divide in Israel. Netanyahu placed the issue of combating Iran, even through direct force, at the forefront of his campaign to win the election late last year. Throughout the past unity coalition of Bennett and Lapid, the anti-Iran position also proved a cornerstone of Israeli regional policy.

Performing aggressive actions, such as a direct attack against Iranian nuclear facilities, could now be much more difficult for the Israelis to pull off, with Saudi Arabia taking a non-combative approach to Iran. Although the nuclear issue is perhaps the most pervasive issue for the Israeli public, Iran’s regional alliances and defense programs are the true threats posed to Israel. If Saudi-Iranian ties are able to flourish and the Chinese-brokered deal holds, this could mean that Riyadh’s efforts in Lebanon against Hezbollah could be curtailed, and this surely represents a concern for Israel.

Iran, through its relationships with regional political parties, governments, and localized militia forces, also possesses the ability to pull strings that could benefit Saudi Arabia if it reciprocates by doing the same. This is especially the case when it comes to the conflict in Yemen. One thing that Ansarallah, also known as the Houthis, have been able to prove in their efforts against the Saudi-led coalition since 2015 when the war began, is that they are capable of overcoming US-made defense equipment. Iran, as a close ally of Ansarallah, could aid in setting up a long-term truce or even lasting peace, which the likes of the US simply cannot offer. To end this war would be in the security interests of the Saudis, who will undoubtedly suffer if the violence resumes, especially if missiles and drones begin striking their vital infrastructure again.

Just as Beijing proved capable of fostering Saudi-Iranian normalization, Tehran could offer the ability to properly negotiate a peaceful solution in Yemen. However, it is simply too early to tell whether such a development will take place. What the deal undoubtedly does is prove the weakness in Israel’s regional capabilities, along with the waning influence of the US. Israel’s security concerns regarding Syria and Lebanon may be heightened if the Chinese-brokered agreement delivers a more peaceful approach inside both of these nations. Saudi Arabia could also re-establish ties with the Syrian government, as the UAE has already done, which could help Damascus on the road to recovery from its brutal war and current state of economic ruin. A strong and united Syria could in the future also pose a strategic threat to Israel. While Saudi-Israeli normalization is by no means off the table, the Saudi-Iranian agreement could pose a serious challenge regionally for Israel’s current policy approach.

Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the Palestinian territories and currently works with Quds News.

March 17, 2023 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism | , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Yemen condemns Israeli, Emirati eviction of Socotra island residents

The Cradle | February 24, 2023

The Ministry of Fishing in Yemen’s National Salvation Government in Sanaa has strongly condemned the UAE’s eviction of residents from the Abd al-Kuri Island of the Socotra archipelago off the Yemeni coast, which Abu Dhabi has been carrying out as part of its long-active plan of transforming Socotra into an Israeli-Emirati military and intelligence hub.

The ministry strongly condemned “the forced displacement of fishermen and residents of the island, and [their forced eviction towards the coastal town of] Hadiboh,” a 22 February statement read.

The statement added that the displacement of the island’s residents and fishermen represents a “flagrant violation” of Yemen’s sovereignty, as well as a threat to navigation and the residents of nearby islands.

The ministry also highlighted the “geostrategic importance of Abd al-Kuri Island” and demanded that the UN Security Council call for an immediate cessation of the UAE’s forced eviction of the island’s residents.

According to the Yemeni statement, these forced evictions follow the recent arrival of Israeli officers to Socotra and the construction of new barracks and military facilities on Abd al-Kuri Island.

This is confirmed by Yemeni journalist and activist Anis Mansour, who on 20 February strongly condemned the “bringing in of Israeli and Emirati forces to the island without the knowledge of the leadership or authorities, in a blatant challenge to Yemeni dignity and sovereignty.”

Mansour said that “the invading forces began to expel the Yemeni local armed tribes from the island, and the residents present there are also being expelled to the Qusa’ir area.”

Mansour also claimed that the Saudi-led coalition plans to ‘secure housing’ in Hadhramaut for about 1,000 fishermen from the island in order to limit the island to the presence of Emirati-Israeli military and intelligence officials only.

Israel is interested in the strategic archipelago because it serves as a potential flashpoint for a confrontation with Iran. In 2020, the Washington Institute published an analysis examining how Israeli submarines could potentially strike the Islamic Republic from positions near Yemen.

An Israeli tourist stands on a hilltop in Yemen’s Socotra Island. January 2022. (Photo credit: Twitter)

In January 2022, Socotra made headlines due to controversial photos of Israeli tourists who had visited the islands under a UAE-issued visa.

February 24, 2023 Posted by | Illegal Occupation, Militarism | , , , | 1 Comment

Yemeni officials assess damage to ancient sites bombed by Saudi-led coalition

The Cradle | February 20, 2023

The head of Yemen’s General Authority for Antiquities, Manuscripts, and Museums, Dr. Obbad bin Ali Al-Hayyal, visited several historical and archeological sites in the provinces of Marib and Jawf on 18 February to assess the damages caused to them by the Saudi-led coalition airstrikes, SABA news agency reported.

Hayyal and his team visited the ancient city of Baraqish in Marib’s Mazjar district, the Rusf Temple in Al-Jawf, and several other archeological sites.

According to SABA, they received briefings from local authorities on the damages to ancient columns, inscriptions, and structures due to “Saudi and Emirati warplanes,” as well as the “looting and theft” of antiquities and artifacts by coalition forces from museums across the country.

During the visit, Hayyal stressed the importance of “integrating official and popular efforts” to protect these sites from ‘vandalism and looting.’

Since the start of the Saudi-led war against Yemen in 2015, coalition airstrikes have posed a significant threat to the country’s archeological sites and historical monuments.

In May 2015, coalition airstrikes struck the ancient Sabaean ruins of the Great Marib Dam, which date back to the seventh century BC.

That year, the Saudi-led coalition bombarded the ruins of the ancient city of Baraqish, several ancient temples, and an entire museum filled with countless precious artifacts – which was “reduced to piles of shattered stone,” according to a 2015 report by US media outlet The Intercept.

The Saudi-led bombing also decimated sections of the capital Sanaa’s Old City, which is listed as a UNESCO World Heritage site and dates back 2,500 years.

Several ancient buildings and structures have since collapsed from weakened foundations. Until October 2019, over 237 archeological sites had been directly targeted by the coalition in what has been described as a systematic campaign aimed at deliberately erasing Yemeni culture and history.

Aside from bombing, several ancient sites and museums have been looted and stripped of valuable artifacts by UAE-backed mercenary groups, whose ranks are filled with ISIS and Al-Qaeda militants.

In 2019, a member of Yemen’s Supreme Political Council, Mohammad Ali al-Houthi, said about UAE-backed groups: “The mercenaries are antiquity thieves. Where did the antiquities of the Marib Museum go? … Where are the monuments from the rest of the museums in the occupied governorates? … The mercenaries are committing historical, social, and cultural crimes.”

Saudi Arabia is well-known for its destruction of heritage, particularly within its borders, where many of the ancient cities, towns, and sites dating back to the birth of Islam have been wiped out as part of a campaign motivated by the kingdom’s Wahhabi ideology.

February 20, 2023 Posted by | Timeless or most popular, War Crimes | , , , , | Leave a comment

Sanction failures piling up

Free West Media | February 11, 2023

Western sanctions were supposed to “ruin” Russia not only economically, but also technologically – according to the well-known announcement by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

The ban on supplying electronics was intended to paralyze the Russian armaments industry. But Western war planners appear to have gotten even the most basic facts wrong. As is now apparent, an “isolated” Russia has managed to circumvent US-imposed sanctions in the technology sector. What’s more, Russia is importing even more microchips and semiconductors than before the war.

Among other things, the US and the EU banned the supply of microchips and semiconductors to Russia, depriving them of “70 percent” of their imports. The most important companies in the sector, such as Intel, AMD, the Taiwanese chip giant TSMC and Nexperia from the Netherlands, stopped doing business in Russia almost overnight.

At the end of March, US President Biden confidently announced that Russia would no longer be “able to rebuild those devastating weapon systems” and was on its way back “to the 19th century” as a result of the Russian operation in Ukraine, while US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo stated: “We have reports from Ukrainians that when they find Russian military equipment on the ground, it’s filled with semiconductors that they took out of dishwashers and refrigerators”.

Raimondo spoke at a Senate hearing in May last year, noting that she had recently met with Ukraine’s prime minister. “Our approach was to deny Russia technology — technology that would cripple their ability to continue a military operation. And that is exactly what we are doing.”

And in September, the President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, defiantly announced that Russia’s industry was in ruins. “The Russian military is taking chips from dishwashers and refrigerators to repair their military equipment because they are running out of semiconductors. Russian industry is in tatters,” she claimed in a speech in the European Parliament.

Total Western failure to predict outcomes

But the Russian armed forces never had to do that during the war, as is now evident. Referring to an official report, the weekly German newspaper Zeit reported that Western sanctions in no way reduced Russian imports of electronic components – on the contrary: Russia imported even more processors and semiconductors in 2022 than before the war. Overall, imports in this segment have increased from 1.8 billion euros to 2.45 billion euros.

Beyond that, Russian imports fell by just 16 percent on a yearly basis. This was also confirmed by US economist and sanctions advocate Matthew Klein. According to his calculations, Russian imports in November were only 15 percent below the monthly average for 2021. At the beginning of 2022, shortly after the Russian operation started, Western “experts” had expected a slump of at least 30 to 40 percent.

The fact that Russia was able to circumvent the sanctions is due to countries like China, Turkey or the United Arab Emirates, which quickly filled the gaps left by Western corporations. They also act as a location for Russian intermediaries who obtain Western technology from letterbox companies.

At the same time, Russians have been manufacturing their own goods to fill the gaps that have arisen as a result of sanctions and the withdrawal of western corporations.

IMF expects Russia’s economy to grow

Until recently the West doubted that Russia’s economy would survive under sanctions, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is now sounding more optimistic than even the Russian government. Known for its gloomy forecasts, The IMF has predicted that Russia’s GDP will expand this year.

By far the most important trading partner for Russia is China. Overall, imports from China rose by 13 percent in 2022. Many Western companies such as Apple or Ikea had supplied the Russian market before they withdrew. This decision to leave could be compensated for.

China’s companies now deliver the majority of new cars and smartphones, computers, but also heavy equipment such as construction machinery and trucks. In fact, exports of trucks from China more than tripled in 2022 while imports of construction equipment have doubled.

Most importantly from a Russian point of view, however, are the imports of microchips. Together with Hong Kong, China shipped $900 million worth of semiconductors to its neighbour in 2022, more than double than the figure for 2021.

February 11, 2023 Posted by | Economics | , , , | 7 Comments

‘Türkiye and UAE told to cut trade ties with Russia’

RT | February 3, 2023

US officials have warned Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates against maintaining economic and financial ties with Russia because trade is undermining sanctions, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

The warnings were reportedly voiced by the undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the US Treasury, Brian Nelson, during meetings with Turkish officials on Thursday and Friday.

Nelson’s visit to Türkiye comes as part of a regional tour that included the UAE earlier this week, and is said to be aimed at discussing Washington’s concerns over rising exports to Russia that include US goods.

US officials have called on the two countries to clamp down on the flow of goods to Russia, the sources told the news agency, adding that millions of dollars’ worth of export-controlled items were reaching the sanctions-hit country, and could be used by the defense industry to extend the conflict in Ukraine.

Scores of Turkish exporters shipped over $800 million worth of goods to Russia, including $300 million in machinery and another $80 million in electronics in the eight months through October 2022, according to people who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Other areas of concern reportedly include Russian vessels either sanctioned or subject to export controls making port calls in Turkey.

Meanwhile, the UAE has maintained ties with both Ukraine and Russia. The Gulf state’s ruler, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, traveled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in October amid the continuing conflict in Ukraine. The leaders expressed Moscow and Abu Dhabi’s willingness to develop cooperation on all levels.

February 3, 2023 Posted by | Economics, Russophobia | , , | 2 Comments

US to pressure partners into enforcing anti-Russia sanctions

RT | January 28, 2023

The US Treasury Department’s top sanctions official will visit Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates next week to warn officials and businesses there that Washington will punish them if they dodge its sanctions on Russia, Reuters reported on Saturday.

Brian Nelson, the department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, will travel to Oman, the UAE, and Türkiye between Sunday and Friday. Meeting with government officials, businesses and financial institutions, Nelson will caution them that they could lose access to US markets “on account of doing business with sanctioned entities,” a Treasury spokesperson told the news agency.

US officials have repeatedly highlighted Türkiye as a potential hub of sanctions evasion, and unnamed Western officials told the Financial Times in August that they were “deeply concerned” about allegations of trade between Turkish firms and sanctioned Russian entities.

Ankara responded that it “would not allow the breaching of sanctions by any institution or person,” following a phone call in which US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo seemingly threatened the “success of the Turkish economy” and “the integrity of its banking sector.”

The UAE has also received warnings from Washington, with Adeyemo urging the Emirates’ financial institutions last summer to be “exceedingly cautious” about doing business with other institutions connected to “the Russian financial system.” The Treasury spokesperson told Reuters that Nelson will condemn the UAE’s “poor sanctions compliance” during his visit.

In the last month, the US has sanctioned a prominent Turkish businessman over allegedly laundering money for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and a UAE-based aviation firm over alleged sales to Russia’s Wagner private military corporation. Multiple Emirati companies have also been penalized for evading US sanctions on Iran.

Both Türkiye and the UAE voted at the UN General Assembly last year to condemn Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, but neither has imposed sanctions of their own on Moscow. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained close contact with his colleagues in both Kiev and Moscow, and said from the outset that his diplomatic handling of the conflict would be “balanced.”

With Türkiye and the US also at loggerheads over Ankara’s refusal to sign off on Finland’s and Sweden’s bids for NATO membership, Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin last week affirmed their intent to “develop comprehensive cooperation,” including by increasing the supply of Russian gas to Türkiye.

January 28, 2023 Posted by | Economics, Russophobia, War Crimes | , , , | 2 Comments

Saudi Coalition forced to release detained Yemeni fuel ships

By Yusef Mawry – Press TV – December 25, 2022

Sana’a – Fuel prices have slightly dropped in Yemen after the release of two Yemeni fuel ships that were detained by the Saudi-led coalition earlier this week in the Red Sea.

The Yemeni army issued a stern warning to Saudi Arabia and the UAE that if the ships were not released soon, military action would follow.

Yemeni bus and motorbike drivers in the capital Sana’a who make a living from public transportation welcomed the lowering of fuel prices. They say this is going to help them cope with the fuel price hike caused by the blockade.

Yemeni political experts say the release of the fuel ships by the Saudi-led coalition isn’t enough, as Yemen will continue to struggle until Saudi Arabia and its allies completely lift the blockade and end their illegal involvement in Yemen.

Despite falling oil prices, tensions are rising on all active battlefronts in Yemen for what could soon be a resumption of war if a political solution is not reached soon, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue their militarization of strategic Yemeni Islands in the Red and Arabian sea.

The release of fuel ships detained by the Saudi-led coalition marks a big victory for the Yemeni government based in Sana’a and the people living in the areas controlled by Ansarullah. This also indicates that Saudi Arabia and the UAE simply cannot afford to have their oil industries targeted by Yemeni missiles and that’s why they decided to go with a safer option by releasing the fuel vessels.

December 25, 2022 Posted by | Illegal Occupation | , , | Leave a comment

Reneging on Abraham Accords, Netanyahu authorises ‘soft annexation’ of West Bank

MEMO | November 24, 2022

Israel’s designate Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been accused of breaking his agreement with Arab countries that normalised relations with the Occupation State during the current coalition negotiations. The Likud leader is reported to have agreed to move the civil administration in the West Bank from Israeli Ministry of Defence to the Ministry of Finance to appease far-right member of the Knesset, Bezalel Smotrich.

Religious Zionism will be handed the civil administration portfolio, according to Haaretz. The Ministry is hugely significant for Palestinians, as it oversees coordination of Israel’s activity in the Occupied West Bank. The agreement was reached as part of the ongoing coalition talks between Netanyahu’s Likud and Religious Zionism, which stalled once more after the parties failed to reach agreement on several other key issues.

Though details of the talks are yet to be disclosed, Likud is said to have acceded to Religious Zionism’s demand for some of the powers of the civil administration, which is under the Defence Ministry. The deal will mean that Smotrich, who is an advocate of Israel’s illegal settlement enterprise, will be handed power in approving Palestinian construction plans and settlement construction in Area C. Decisions around illegal outposts, illegal construction and work permits for Palestinians falls under the remit of the administration.

The biggest prize for Religious Zionism, which became the third largest party with 14 Knesset seats, is to seize control over affairs in the Occupied West Bank. Although past Israeli governments showed reluctance to annex the territory completely over concerns around backlash from the international community, Religious Zionism has no such fear.

Officials in Religious Zionism claimed, Wednesday, that the Party acceded to Netanyahu’s requests to forgo the defence portfolio in exchange for the Finance Ministry. The condition for the agreement is that the responsibility for settlements and the civil administration is transferred from the Ministry of Defence to the Ministry of Finance. Under International law, the West Bank is occupied, which means that the military of the occupying power oversees the territory.

Netanyahu has been accused of reneging on his deal with the Arab States by agreeing to the transfer of the civil administration. “Moving the civil administration in the West Bank from Israeli Ministry of Defence to the Ministry of Finance will be a ‘soft annexation’ of the WB & violation of the commitment Netanyahu gave the US & UAE to suspend his annexation plan,” said Israeli journalist, Barak Ravid on Twitter. “It could harm the Israel-UAE peace treaty,” Ravid added, referring to 2020 normalisation deal.

Referred to as the “Abraham Accords,” the UAE hailed the deal as victory for the two-state solution. Abu Dhabi defended its decision to normalise relations with the Occupation State by insisting that it had prevented Israel from annexing the West Bank, a threat which Netanyahu, who was the Prime Minister at the time, had issued.

It is not clear what steps the UAE will take in response. UAE Foreign Minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed (ABZ) raised his concerns over Religious Zionism becoming part of a coalition with Netanyahu, during a recent visit to Israel.

November 25, 2022 Posted by | Deception, Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Illegal Occupation | , , , , | 2 Comments

Two potentates meet up at St. Petersburg

A 19th century painting of Konstantinovksy Palace, St. Petersburg
BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | INDIAN PUNCHLINE |  OCTOBER 12, 2022

There was something profoundly meaningful that the President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan undertook a visit to Russia amidst the gathering storms in Ukraine. Conscious of the symbolism, Russian President Vladimir Putin received Sheikh Mohammed on Tuesday in a grand setting befitting a monarch — at the gorgeous Konstantinovksy Palace in St. Petersburg whose heritage dates back to Peter the Great, a symbol of the revival of Russia and its cultural heritage. 

The meeting of the two potentates couldn’t have been more timely. Sheikh Mohammed and his Saudi kinsperson, Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud had just handed down a strategic defeat to a superpower in the geopolitics of oil, as the world community witnessed disbelievingly and understood that the sun has set on the American Century in international politics. 

Putin too stands at the threshold of a historic victory over the combined might of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which is poised to redraw the contours of the new world order. Putin told Sheikh Mohammed that the relations between Russia and the UAE are “an important factor of regional and overall global stability.”

Putin said, “I know that you are concerned about the entire situation that is developing, and I know about your desire to make a contribution to resolving all contentious issues, including the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. I would like to note that, indeed, this substantial factor makes it possible to use your influence to help gradually resolve the situation.” 

The words were carefully chosen. Putin noted the UAE’s desire “to help gradually resolve the situation” in Ukraine, underscoring that a denouement is not in the cards in a near term. [Emphasis added.] However, the centrepiece of Putin’s remarks was something else — OPEC Plus where Saudi Arabia, UAE and Russia are virtually navigating the global energy markets.  

Putin signalled that Moscow is not at all viewing the OPEC+ decision in zero sum terms. Rather, its aim is “to stabilise global energy markets, so that consumers of energy resources and those supplying them to global markets would feel calm, stable and confident, and so that supply and demand would be balanced.” Of course, embedded within this polite submission is a tough message to the G7 that any further attempt on their part to extend their weaponisation of sanctions to the global energy market is unacceptable and will be resisted and defeated. 

These were Putin’s first remarks on the collective decision announced by the OPEC+ at its meeting in Vienna last Thursday to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day. Putin concluded firmly that Russia will “respond to market requirements all the time, and we try to do this in line with current developments.” 

Sheikh Mohammed unmistakably signalled that his visit focused on boosting its bilateral relations with Russia, especially in the economic sphere. As the western sanctions atrophy Russia’s flourishing economic ties with Europe, Moscow is turning to the non-Western world for partnerships, and reorienting its regional strategies. Putin has repeatedly stated that Russia will gladly engage with any country that stands up to western bullying. 

The UAE has been quick to grasp that Russia prioritises the Emirates as a favoured destination to conduct business. The uniqueness of the UAE for Moscow lies in its dynamic environment for doing business as well as for opening a window for Russian industry to the Western world. Moscow has been receiving strong feelers from European partners about resuming business ties albeit indirectly. After all, the Russian market is synonymous with high business returns. 

A crucial template here is Moscow’s appreciation of the growing emphasis by the UAE on preserving its strategic autonomy. The Russian elites admire Sheikh Mohammad for rapidly transforming the Emirates from an economy once reliant on fishing and pearls, to becoming a financial powerhouse and diverse economy, and providing a stable political system, strong capital flow, favourable taxation environment and liberal trade regimes. 

Indeed, the UAE is now an attractive investment hub with a ‘2021 Vision’ of becoming the economic, touristic and commercial capital for over two billion people. As the Russians see it, these ambitious goals will continue to facilitate a hospitable, well-regulated and secure business ecosystem in the UAE. The World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index ranks the UAE among the top dozen out of 160 countries in terms of trade logistics.

Equally, Moscow does not envisage that it could be “business as usual” with the Europeans anytime soon — if ever. The the resuscitation of the West’s Nazi heritage to spite Russia and the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipelines to punish Russia are only the culmination of an excessively obnoxious behaviour by the US and its allies to humiliate Russia over the decades — pouring scorn over its cultural heritages of language, literature, music, etc.  out of sheer envy — in an appalling zest to “erase” Russia as a powerhouse. This has created deep wounds in the Russian psyche.   

With 4,000 Russian companies operating out of the UAE, there is a rapidly growing Russian community in the Gulf region and Sheikh Mohammed noted that the Emirates will provide a friendly ambience for the Russian expatriates by approving the opening of the first Russian school in the Emirates. Conceivably, this must be the first such Russian school in that part of the world.  

The Russian business community visualises the UAE as a prime launch-pad  to access markets around the world. Its geographical location and amicable time zone (GMT +4), give businesses wishing to access markets in Africa, Asia and Europe a regional and business-centric hub from which to operate. Russia has set its sights high for expanding its relations with African countries, where it enjoys tremendous “soft power” dating back to the Soviet era.

In geopolitical terms, Sheikh Mohammed’s decision to travel to Russia to meet with Putin comes in the backdrop of the temper tantrums of the American political elites threatening to “punish” Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Democrats have brashly called for the withdrawal of US troops in the UAE and Saudi Arabia and cutback on arms supplies. 

These Neanderthal men ought to have become museum pieces by now. They do not comprehend that the West Asian elites have a cosmopolitan mindset and know these hollow men well enough, having interacted with them in their pristine years and watched stoically more recently as they began ageing, showing signs of exhaustion and senility.

By this visit to St. Petersburg, Sheikh Mohammed may have in his own astute way shown that such crude American threats will only be counter-productive. Earlier once, the Biden Administration had bullied him to sever the UAE’s relations with China to qualify for F-35 jets, whereupon, in disgust, he turned to France’s Rafale. 

Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the potential to form a troika where each of the members augmented the political power of the other two members and at the same time collectively impacted the actual distribution of power in a multipolar world. The OPEC Plus has shown the way. Sheikh Mohammed’s meeting with Putin comes within the week of the OPEC Plus meeting in Vienna.

October 12, 2022 Posted by | Economics | , | 3 Comments

UAE President to visit Russia for bilateral talks

The Cradle | October 10, 2022

The President of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, will visit Russia on 11 October to discuss a series of national and international topics with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

The bilateral talks were announced by the Russian Presidential Spokesman Dimitry Peskov on 10 October.

The visit comes less than a week after OPEC+ member and nonmember states decided to cut oil production output by 2 million barrels per day, defying the hopes and expectations of the Biden administration to curb rising energy prices.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre accused OPEC+ on 5 October of “aligning with Russia,” and claimed their decision “is shortsighted while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of [Russia’s] invasion of Ukraine,” in reference to the crisis caused by western sanctions imposed on Russia’s energy sector and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Jean-Pierre added that President Joe Biden is consulting with congress “on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices.”

In May of this year, the US Senate approved the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (NOPEC) Act, which could open OPEC member states and their partners to antitrust lawsuits for “orchestrating supply cuts that raise global crude prices.”

The bipartisan legislation would modify US antitrust law to revoke the sovereign immunity that protects sovereign states from lawsuits. This, in turn, would give the US attorney general the ability to sue OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Russia in federal court.

According to the New York Times, analysts have argued that Saudi Arabia is determined to bring the price back above the $90 benchmark.

However, the chief of Saudi Aramco’s operations, Amin Nasser, said that the move to lower output was a decision made based on the international energy markets and fears over a looming recession.

“Even if we decide we are going to increase investment, it is going to be difficult; it will take a number of years,” Nasser said as he warned that the world could experience a serious supply crisis in the energy sectors.

October 10, 2022 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

The geopolitical consequences of the OPEC+ agreement

By Hazem Ayyad | MEMO | October 7, 2022

Amir Hossein Zamani Nia, Iran’s OPEC governor, announced when he left a meeting with representatives of the 13 member states of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their ten allies – known as OPEC+ – the decision to reduce oil production by two million barrels per day for November.

The initial reactions to the large production cut were hysteria. One American journalist asked the Saudi Minister of Energy, Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman, if he was worried about the American reaction to the production cut. He sarcastically told her to enjoy the sun in Vienna; a clear indication of the difficulties that Europeans will face next winter.

The American reactions to the decision of the OPEC+ countries were quick and distinct. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre commented on the decision by saying it was clear that the OPEC+ alliance was “aligning with Russia” and was making a “short-sighted decision” to reduce oil production at the height of the conflict in Ukraine.

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan noted that US President Joe Biden was feeling “disappointed” with the decision of the OPEC+ alliance to reduce its oil production.

The reactions confirm President Biden’s failure to manage the sanctions against Russia and the dismantling of the OPEC+ alliance, whose decisions ruined the ambitions of the US administration, the US Treasury, and the Federal Reserve to fight inflation and reduce interest rates.

The OPEC+ alliance has once again proven its strength and the unity of its countries, which include Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia. Despite the disparity, competition and conflict between its countries, the OPEC+ agreement exceeded the limits of technical performance confirmed by UAE Energy Minister, Suhail Al Mazrouei, when his country announced it was joining the efforts to reduce production. Its geopolitical reach extended from the Gulf and Yemen to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.

The agreement that included regional opponents such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and international sponsors such as Russia, stressed the geopolitical dimensions as it coincided with a meeting held by the Russian President’s Special Envoy to the Middle East and Africa, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, on Wednesday evening with the Emirati Ambassador to Moscow, Mohammed Ahmed Al-Jaber, to discuss the situation in Yemen and the Gulf region after the expiry of the deadline for the truce agreement in Yemen on 2 October.

This meeting came at the request of the Emirati ambassador and coincided with threats made by a member of the Political Bureau of the Houthi movement, Muhammad Al-Bakhiti. He said: “We have the ability and the courage to strike the Saudi and Emirati oil facilities if our demands are not met.”

The meeting with the Emirati ambassador coincided with a press conference held by the US special envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking, during which he discussed his country’s position on renewing the truce in Yemen between the countries of the Arab coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the Houthi group. The US official held the Houthis responsible for hindering the reaching of an agreement without providing practical solutions for resuming the truce or dealing with Houthi threats.

These actions and movements confirm the connection between the regional files and their connection to the international mediations led by both America and Russia in Yemeni. Saudi Arabia and the UAE view the OPEC+ agreement as a trump card and a comprehensive framework that allows activating mediations and truces in Yemen, with the positive and consensual atmosphere it provides, which the Biden administration was unable to provide. This is despite its frequent talk about security cooperation in the Red Sea and the Gulf and naval and air manoeuvres, but it quickly turned into a political and economic framework that serves Israel and its interests more than it serves the interests of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

OPEC+ has shifted from a technical framework to an emerging economic and geopolitical framework; fuelled by the Ukrainian war and Russian demands. The tense American reactions deepened the Arab Gulf states’ mistrust of the American partner, which repeatedly failed to deal with the Yemeni and Iranian file. It also failed to deal with the economic requirements of the Gulf states and their political and cultural specificity, which put them in conflict with the powers of the region and threatened their political and religious legitimacy.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 6 October 2022.

October 7, 2022 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | 1 Comment

As truce ends, Yemen warns oil companies to leave Saudi Arabia, UAE

Press TV – October 2, 2022

Yemen’s Armed Forces have put oil companies operating in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on notice, warning that they could be targeted as long as Riyadh and its allies fail to commit to a proper ceasefire.

Tweeting on Sunday, the Armed Forces’ spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree said Yemeni troops were providing the oil companies with a window of opportunity to leave the Saudi and Emirati soils “fast.”

The Saudi kingdom and its allies, most notably the United Arab Emirates, have been waging a war against Yemen since March 2015, trying, in vain, to restore Yemen’s power to its former Riyadh-friendly officials. The military campaign, which has been enjoying unstinting arms, logistical, and political support from the United States, has killed hundreds of thousands of people, and turned the entire Yemen into the scene of the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

A temporary United Nations-mediated ceasefire took effect between the warring sides in April and has been renewed twice ever since. The truce, however, expired on Sunday amid the invading coalition’s constant violations of the agreement and its refusal to properly lift a siege that it has been enforcing against Yemen simultaneously with the war.

“The warning,” Saree said, “stands as long as the countries that make up the invading American-Saudi coalition refuse to adhere to a ceasefire that allows the Yemeni people to exploit their oil wealth….”

Also on Sunday, Hans Grundberg, the United Nations’ special envoy for Yemen, confirmed failure of efforts aimed at extending the truce.

“The UN special envoy regrets that an agreement has not been reached today, as an extended and expanded truce would provide additional critical benefits to the population,” a statement said.

“I urge [the warring parties] to fulfill their obligation to the Yemeni people to pursue every avenue for peace,” the Swedish diplomat was quoted as saying.

October 3, 2022 Posted by | Economics, War Crimes | , , | 1 Comment

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