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Slate: The First Undeniable Climate Change Deaths

By Eric Worrall | Watts Up With That? | July 25, 2020

When record breaking cold occurs it is just weather, but according to Slate, climate attribution, the science of retrofitting explanations to unusual weather events after they happened, can demonstrate that a single unusual heatwave is evidence of climate change.

The First Undeniable Climate Change Deaths

In 2018 in Japan, more than 1,000 people died during an unprecedented heat wave. In 2019, scientists proved it would have been impossible without global warming.

By DANIEL MERINO JULY 23, 20205:45 AM

uly 23, 2018, was a day unlike any seen before in Japan. It was the peak of a weekslong heat wave that smashed previous temperature records across the historically temperate nation. The heat started on July 9, on farms and in cities that only days earlier were fighting deadly rains, mudslides, and floods. As the waters receded, temperatures climbed. By July 15, 200 of the 927 weather stations in Japan recorded temperatures of 35 degrees Celsius, about 95 degrees Fahrenheit, or higher. Food and electricity prices hit multiyear highs as the power grid and water resources were pushed to their limits. Tens of thousands of people were hospitalized due to heat exhaustion and heatstroke. On Monday, July 23, the heat wave reached its zenith. The large Tokyo suburb of Kumagaya was the epicenter, and around 3 p.m., the Kumagaya Meteorological Observatory measured a temperature of 41.1 degrees Celsius, or 106 F. It was the hottest temperature ever recorded in Japan, but the record was more than a statistic. It was a tragedy: Over the course of those few weeks, more than a thousand people died from heat-related illnesses.

On July 24, the day after the peak of the heat wave, the Japan Meteorological Agency declared it a natural disaster. A disaster it was. But a natural one? Not so much.

In early 2019, researchers at the Japan Meteorological Agency started looking into the circumstances that had caused the unprecedented, deadly heat wave. They wanted to consider it through a relatively new lens—through the young branch of meteorology called attribution science, which allows researchers to directly measure the impact of climate change on individual extreme weather events. Attribution science, at its most basic, calculates how likely an extreme weather event is in today’s climate-changed world and compares that with how likely a similar event would be in a world without anthropogenic warming. Any difference between those two probabilities can be attributed to climate change.

Read more: https://slate.com/technology/2020/07/climate-change-deaths-japan-2018-heat-wave.html

The Slate article quotes Yukiko Imada of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The abstract of Yukiko Imada’s study;

The July 2018 High Temperature Event in Japan Could Not Have Happened without Human-Induced Global Warming

Yukiko ImadaMasahiro WatanabeHiroaki KawaseHideo ShiogamaMiki Arai

The high temperature event in July 2018 caused record-breaking human damage throughout Japan. Large-ensemble historical simulations with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model showed that the occurrence rate of this event under the condition of external forcings in July 2018 was approximately 20%. This high probability was a result of the high-pressure systems both in the upper and lower troposphere in July 2018. The event attribution approach based on the large-ensemble simulations with and without human-induced climate change indicated the following: (1) The event would never have happened without anthropogenic global warming. (2) The strength of the two-tiered high-pressure systems was also at an extreme level and at least doubled the level of event probability, which was independent of global warming. Moreover, a set of the large-ensemble dynamically downscaled outputs revealed that the mean annual occurrence of extremely hot days in Japan will be expected to increase by 1.8 times under a global warming level of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Read more: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/15A/0/15A_15A-002/_article/-char/ja/

Climate attribution science would be a little more believable if it could predict unusual events in advance, say give a year or two warning that Japan was about to suffer an extreme heatwave. Providing explanations of events which have already happened does not demonstrate skill.

July 26, 2020 - Posted by | Deception, Mainstream Media, Warmongering, Science and Pseudo-Science |

1 Comment »

  1. COVERT 19 & PANICDEMIC
    WHILE CHINA DROWNED, TRUMP PLAYED HIS HAARP!

    The individual comes face-to-face with a conspiracy so monstrous he cannot believe it exists. The American mind has not come to a realization of the evil which has been introduced into our midst. It rejects even the assumption that human creatures could espouse a philosophy which must ultimately destroy all that is good and decent.
    J. Edgar Hoover

    “The truth must be repeated over and over again, because error is repeatedly preached among us, not only by individuals but by the masses. In periodicals and encyclopedias, in schools and universities; everywhere, in fact, error prevails, and is quite easy in the
    feeling that it has a decided majority on its side.”
    ~ J. W. v. Goethe

    SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 2010
    by The Rockefeller Foundation an Global Business Network
    May 2010
    PDF Format

    LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

    This report is the result of extensive effort and collaboration among the Rockefeller Foundation initiative staff, Foundation grantees, and external experts.

    The Rockefeller Foundation and GBN would like to extend special thanks to all of the individuals who contributed their thoughtfulness and expertise throughout the scenario process.

    Their enthusiastic participation in interviews, workshops, and the ongoing iteration of the scenarios made this co-creative process more stimulating and engaging that it could ever have been otherwise.

    ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION STAFF
    Project Leads
    Claudia Juech, Managing Director
    Evan Michelson, Senior Research Associate

    Core Team
    Karl Brown, Associate Director
    Robert Buckley, Managing Director
    Lily Dorment, Research Associate
    Brinda Ganguly, Associate Director
    Veronica Olazabal, Research Associate
    Gary Toenniessen, Managing Director
    Thank you as well to all Foundation staff who participated in the scenario creation workshop in December.

    A special thank you also to Laura Yousef.

    ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION GRANTEES
    G.K. Bhat, TARU Leading Edge, India
    Le Bach Duong, Institute for Social Development Studies, Vietnam
    Aidan Eyakuze, Society for International Development, Tanzania
    Michael Free, PATH, Seattle, WA
    Namrita Kapur, Root Capital, Boston, MA
    Paul Kukubo, Kenya ICT Board, Kenya
    Joseph Mureithi, Kenyan Agriculture Research Institute, Kenya

    EXTERNAL EXPERTS
    Stewart Brand, Cofounder of GBN and President of the Long Now Foundation
    Robert de Jongh, Managing Regional Director, SNV Latin America
    José Gomez-Marquez, Program Director for the Innovations in International Health initiative (IIH), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Natalie Jeremijenko, Experimental Designer and Director of xdesign Environmental Health Clinic, New York University
    Athar Osama, Visiting Fellow, Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University
    Isha Ray, Professor, School of Information (Energy and Resources Group), University of California-Berkeley
    Enrique Rueda-Sabater, Director of Strategy and Business Development for Emerging Markets, Cisco
    Caroline Wagner, Senior Analyst, SRI International and Research Scientist, Center for International Science and Technology Policy, The George Washington University

    GLOBAL BUSINESS NETWORK
    Andrew Blau, Co-President
    Tara Capsuto, Senior Practice Associate
    Lynn Carruthers, Visual Practitioner
    Michael Costigan, Practitioner
    Jenny Johnston, Senior Editor
    Barbara Kibbe, Vice President of Client Services, Monitor Institute
    Brie Linkenhoker, Senior Practitioner
    Peter Schwartz, Chairman

    The Rockefeller Foundation
    420 Fifth Ave
    New York, NY 10018
    tel +1 212 869 8500 fax +1 212 764 3468
    http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org

    Global Business Network
    101 Market Street
    Suite 1000
    San Francisco, CA 94105
    tel +1 415 932 5400 fax +1 415 932 5401
    http://www.gbn.com

    There is little doubt that technology will continue to drive change across the developing world.

    Like

    Comment by Dave Rubin | July 26, 2020 | Reply


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