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Europe’s Eerie Silence – The Curious Case of the Dog That Did Not Bark

By Alastair Crooke | Strategic Culture Foundation | October 10, 2022

Western media is full of speculation whether, or not, we stand at the cusp of WW3. Actually, we are already there. The long war never stopped. In the wake of America’s 2008 Financial Crisis, the U.S. needed to reinforce its economy’s collateral resource base. For the Straussian current (the neocon hawks if you prefer), Russia’s then post-Cold War weakness was an ‘opportunity’ to open a new war front. The U.S. hawks wanted to kill two birds with one stone: to pillage Russia’s valuable resources to reinforce their own economy and to fracture Russia into a kaleidoscope of parts.

For the Straussians, the Cold War too never ended. The world remains binary – ‘us and them, good and evil’.

But the neoliberal pillage ultimately didn’t succeed – to the lasting chagrin of the Straussians. Since 2014 at least, (according to one senior Russian official), the Great Game has moved towards the attempt by the U.S. to control the flows and corridors of energy – and to set its price. And, on the other side, on Russia’s counter-measures to create fluid and dynamic transit networks through pipelines and Asian internal waterways – and to set the price of energy. (Now via OPEC+)

So, Putin holding the Ukraine referenda; mobilising Russian military forces; and reminding the world that he is open to talks, clearly ‘ups the ante’. Should the NATO-led Ukrainians push into these areas after next week, it will constitute a direct attack on Russian soil. This retaliation threat is backed up by the mobilisation of massive military deployments.

Then, the Nordstream pipelines were blown up. Put simply, this is a high-stakes game of chicken playing out centred around energy – and against the relative strengths and weaknesses of the western economy and the Russian economy. Biden releases 1 million per day from strategic reserves and OPEC+ seems set to cut by 1.5 million barrels per day.

On the one hand, the U.S. is a large resource-rich economy, but Europe isn’t and is much more dependent on imports of food and energy. And with the final bursting of the QE bubble, it is not clear that Central Bank intervention which created the $30+ trillion QE bubble will be able to provide a solution. Inflation changes the calculus. A return to QE becomes highly problematic in an inflationary environment.

One prescient financial commentator noted: “Bubbles bursting are not just about inflated prices falling, they’re about the recognition that an entire way of thinking was wrong”. Put simply, did the Straussians adequately think through their recent exaltation of the pipeline disruption? Blinken has just called the Nordstream sabotage and Europe’s consequent energy deficit a “tremendous opportunity” for the U.S.. Curiously, the sabotage coincided with reports suggesting that secret talks were afoot between Germany and Russia to resolve all Nordstream issues and to restart supply.

But what if the resultant crisis crashes the political structures in Europe? What if the U.S. turns out not to be immune to the type of financial leverage crisis facing the UK? Team Biden and the EU plainly didn’t think through the rush to sanctioning Russia. They also didn’t think through the consequences of their European ally losing Russia.

These ‘fin-war’ elements will likely become more a focus of attention than battlefield wins or reverses in Ukraine (where the rainy season has already begun), and it will not be until early November that the ground will freeze hard. The conflict is heading to a pause, just as the western attention span for the Ukraine war seems to be fading somewhat.

However, what is ‘curious’ for so many, is the eerie silence emanating out of Europe in the wake of their vital energy pipelines lying broken on the Baltic Sea floor at a time of financial crisis. This is the ‘dog’ that did not bark in the night – when you would expect it so to do. Hardly a word, or murmur, is to be heard about this matter in the European press – and nothing from Germany … It as if it never happened. Yet of course the Euro-élite know ‘who did it’.

To understand this paradox, we must look at the interplay of the three principal dynamics at work in Europe. Each thinks of theirs as ‘a winning hand’; the ‘be all, and end all’ of the future. But in reality, these two currents are but ‘useful tools’ in the eyes of those who ‘pull the levers’ and ‘sound the whistles’ – i.e. control the psyops from behind the curtain.

Furthermore, there is a sharp disparity of motives. For the Straussians, behind the curtain, they are at war – existential war to maintain their primacy. The second two currents are utopian projects which have shown themselves to be easily manipulated.

The ‘Straussians’ are the followers of Leo Strauss, the leading neo-con theorist. Many are former Trotskyists who morphed over, from Left to Right (call them Neocon ‘hawks’ if you prefer). Their message is a very simple doctrine about the maintenance of power: ‘Never let it slip’; block any rival from emerging; do whatever it takes.

Leading Straussian, Paul Wolfowitz, wrote this simple doctrine of ‘destroy any emergent rivals before they destroy you’ into the U.S. 1992 official Defence Planning Document – adding to it that Europe and Japan particularly were to be ‘discouraged’ from questioning U.S. global primacy. This skeleton doctrine, though re-packaged in subsequent Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations, continued with its essence unchanged.

And, since the message – ‘block any rival’ – is so direct and compelling, the Straussians flit easily from U.S. political party to party. They also have their ‘useful’ auxiliaries deeply burrowed within the U.S.’ élite class, and institutions of state power. The oldest and most trusty of these auxiliary forces however, is the Anglo-American intelligence and security alliance.

The ‘Straussians’ prefer to scheme from ‘behind the curtain’ and in certain U.S. think-tanks. They move with the times, ‘camping on’, yet never assimilating into whatever prevalent cultural trends are ‘out there’. Their alliances always remain temporary, opportunistic. They use these contemporary impulses primarily to craft fresh justifications for American exceptionalism.

The first such important impulse in the current reframing is liberal-woke, activist-driven, social justice-oriented identity politics. Why wokeism? Why should woke be of interest to the CIA and MI6? Because it is revolutionary. Identity politics was evolved during the French Revolution to upend the status quo; to overthrow its pantheon of hero-models, and to displace the existing élite and rotate a ‘new class’ into power. This definitely excites the interest of Straussians.

Biden likes to tout the exceptionalism of ‘our democracy’. Of course, Biden refers here, not to generic democracy in the wider meaning, but to America’s liberal-woke re-justification for global hegemony (defined as “our democracy”). “We have an obligation, a duty, a responsibility to defend, preserve, and protect ‘our democracy’…It is under threat”, he has said.

The second key dynamic – the Green Transition – is one that co-habits under the Biden Administration umbrella, together with the very radical and distinct philosophy of Silicon Valley – an eugenist and trans-human view that aligns in some respects with that of the ‘Davos’ crowd, as well as with the straight-forward Climate Emergency activists.

Just to be clear, these two distinct, but companion piece dynamics to ‘our democracy’, crossed the Atlantic to burrow deeply into the Brussels leadership class. And, put simply, the Euro-Version of liberal-woke activism keeps intact the Straussian doctrine of U.S. and western exceptionalism – together with its’ insistence that ‘enemies’ be portrayed in the most extreme Manichaean terms.

The aim of Manicheanism (since Carl Schmitt first made the point) is to foreclose on any mediation with rivals by portraying them as sufficiently ‘evil’ that discourse with them become pointless and morally defective.

The transition of liberal-woke politics across the Atlantic should come as no surprise. The EU’s regulation ‘trussed’ internal market was precisely devised to displace political debate with tech managerialism. But the very sterility of econ-tech discourse birthed the so-called ‘democracy gap’. With the latter becoming evermore the Union’s unmissable lacuna.

The Euro-élites thus were in desperate need of a Values System to fill the gap. So, they leaped onto the liberal-woke ‘train’. Drawing on this, and the Club of Rome’s ‘messianism’ for de-industrialisation, gave to the Euro-élites their shiny new sect of absolute purity, a Green Future, and stainless ‘European Values’ filling the democracy-gap lacuna.

Effectively, these latter two currents – identity politics and the Green Agenda – were and are very much in the lead within the EU with the Straussians standing behind the curtain, pulling the Intelligence-Security axis lever.

The new zealots were deeply entrenched into Europe’s élite class by the 1990s, particularly in the wake of Tony Blair’s importation of the Clinton worldview and were ready to cast down the Pantheon of the old order, so to establish a new ‘de-industrialised’ Green world that would wash away the western sins of racism, patriarchy, and heteronormativity.

It culminated in the mounting of ‘a revolutionary vanguard’, whose proselytizing fury is directed both at ‘the Other’ (which serendipitously happens to be America’s rivals), as well as towards those at home (whether in the U.S. or Europe) who are defined as extremists threatening ‘our (liberal) democracy’; or, the imperative need for a ‘Green Revolution’.

Here is the point: At the tip of the European ‘spear’ reside the Green zealots — particularly the truly revolutionary German, Green Party. They hold the leadership in Germany and are at the helm at the EU Commission. It is Green zealotry fused to ‘ruining Russia’ – an intoxicating mix.

The German Greens see themselves as legionaries in this new Trans-Atlantic imperial ‘army’, pulling down literally the pillars of European industrial society, redeeming its smoking ruins, and its unpayable debts, through a digitised financial system and a ‘renewables’ economic future.

And then, with Russia weakened sufficiently, and with Putin effected, the vultures would prey at the Russian carcass for resources – precisely as occurred in the 1990s.

But they forgot … They forgot that Straussians don’t have permanent ‘friends’: U.S. primacy always trumps the interests of allies.

What can the European Green zealots say? They wanted anyway to throw down the pillars of industrialised society. Well, they got it. The Nordstream ‘escape route’ out from economic catastrophe has gone. There is nothing else, but to mumble unconvincingly: ‘Putin did it’. And to contemplate the ruin of Europa and what that may mean.

What next? The hawks likely will now play their next hand in the high stakes game of WW3 ‘chicken’. The soaring dollar is one vector. The question is who holds the stronger cards? The West believes it holds the Ukraine card. Russia believes it has ace economic cards of food, energy, and resource security – and has a stable economy. Ukraine represents an entirely different battlespace: the long term Straussian ambition to strip Russia of its historic ‘safety belt’ that began in the wake of the Cold War with the fragmentation of the Soviet Union.

Much will depend on the fall-out from the Bubble burst. As that one commentator put it: “The moment has come for central bankers to tighten and to unwind their various market distortions: The impact has already been catastrophic,” said Lindsay Politi, a Fund manager. “And central banks aren’t done yet. Inflation changes the calculus: Many central banks simply don’t have the option of returning to QE anymore”.

October 11, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Russophobia, Science and Pseudo-Science, Timeless or most popular | , , , , , | Leave a comment

UK intelligence plotted Crimean Bridge bombing – Grayzone

Samizdat | October 11, 2022

Attacking the strategically vital Crimean Bridge was clearly not a new idea for Ukraine and its anti-Russia allies. In fact, UK intelligence officials reportedly commissioned a study in April examining ways to blow up the key transportation link across the Kerch Strait.

The secret plot was drawn up at the request of senior British Army intelligence operative Chris Donnelly, the Grayzone reported on Tuesday, citing internal documents and correspondence that the investigative journalism outlet obtained from an unidentified source. The stated goal was to destroy the bridge to cut off a key Russian supply route, isolate military forces in Crimea and temporarily block maritime access to the Sea of Azov.

The attack roadmap was titled, ‘Audacious: Support for Ukraine Maritime Raiding Operations’, and it was produced by UK military veteran Hugh Ward, according to the documents obtained by Grayzone. Donnelly, who’s also a veteran NATO advisor, called the plans “very impressive indeed.”

Ward laid out multiple options for blowing up the $4 billion bridge, including a cruise missile attack targeting concrete pillars on each side of the central steel arch. He also examined using divers or underwater drones to attach limpet mines to pillars at the “weakest part” of the structure.

Although last week’s attack on the bridge was carried out using a truck bomb, rather than the options discussed in the UK analysis, there are indications that British spies had shared their findings with Ukraine’s government “at the highest levels,” Grayzone said. The outlet obtained an email in which Donnelly forwarded the plans to Lithuanian Defense Minister Audrius Butkevicius.

Reached by phone, Ward didn’t deny that he prepared the attack plans for Donnelly, Grayzone said. “I’m going to have a chat with Chris and confirm with him what he’s prepared for me to release,” Ward told the outlet.

Although the Crimean Bridge is crossed by thousands of civilians daily, the UK study included no reference to avoiding non-combatant casualties. Saturday’s bombing, as it turned out, killed at least four civilians. Russian President Vladimir Putin called the blast a terrorist attack and indicated that Monday’s air strikes against infrastructure targets in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities were carried out in response to the bridge incident.

Ukrainian media outlets reported that the attack was perpetrated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). Senior officials in Ukraine’s government celebrated the bombing and made jokes about it. The SBU posted a photo of the damaged bridge with a note saying, “The sun is rising, the bridge is burning beautifully.” Senior presidential aide Mikhail Podoliak posted a Twitter message calling the blast “just the beginning.”

October 11, 2022 Posted by | War Crimes | , , , | Leave a comment

Ukraine targets energy infrastructure in Russia – governor

Samizdat | October 11, 2022

The Ukrainian military struck an electrical substation in Russia’s southern region of Belgorod on Tuesday, local authorities have said. The attack on the facility, located in the village of Shebekino, sparked a fire at a transformer and disrupted power supply for some 2,000 people in the area.

Footage circulating online shows the transformer at the substation on fire, with a thick plume of smoke visible many kilometers away from Shebekino.

The attack inflicted only material damage with no injuries reported, according to local officials. It was not immediately clear whether the substation was subjected to artillery or rocket fire. The attack disrupted electricity supply in the area, with some 2,000 people affected. The local authorities promised to restore power within several hours.

The border areas of Russia’s Belgorod Region have repeatedly come under rocket, artillery and drone attacks by Ukrainian forces amid the ongoing conflict. The latest incident comes a day after the Russian military launched a massive missile attack across Ukraine, targeting infrastructure and military installations.

The strikes came in retaliation for Kiev’s terrorist activities and repeated attempts to target Russia’s critical civilian infrastructure, in particular the attack on the Crimean Bridge over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements, designed to give the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state. The protocols, brokered by Germany and France, were first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian president Pyotr Poroshenko has since admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.”

In February 2022, the Kremlin recognized the Donbass republics as independent states and demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join any Western military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked.

October 11, 2022 Posted by | Militarism | , | Leave a comment

Russia to nationalize assets of Japanese carmaker – trade ministry

Samizdat | October 11, 2022

Japanese carmaker Nissan will sell all its Russian assets to state-owned research and development firm NAMI, the trade ministry has said.

The deal, worth a symbolic sum of €1, was approved by the Japanese corporation and includes a plant in St. Petersburg and sales and marketing facilities in Moscow.

“We have managed to reach a formant where the enterprise remains operational. Key competencies, the production cycle and jobs are preserved,” Russia’s Trade Minister Denis Manturov said in a statement on Tuesday.

Nissan has some 2,000 employees in Russia and after the transfer is completed NAMI will be able to attract other companies as production partners to create joint ventures.

According to the minister, Russian carmaker AVTOVAZ will carry out maintenance services for Nissan vehicles, as well as supply spare parts. The deal will give Nissan the right to buy back the business within six years, the trade ministry said.

The scheme is almost identical to the withdrawal of Renault, a member of an alliance with Nissan. In May, the French carmaker’s 68% stake went to NAMI and its factory in Moscow, which produced cars under the Renault and Nissan brands, was transferred to the city government.

Meanwhile, Nissan reported on Tuesday an estimated loss of $686.2 million from leaving the Russian market.

In 2009 the manufacturer started producing SUV models such as the X-Trail and the Qashqai at its plant in St. Petersburg. The Japanese carmaker suspended production there in March due to supply-chain disruptions, following the conflict in Ukraine.

October 11, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Russophobia | , | Leave a comment

Moscow aims to ensure balanced global energy market

Samizdat | October 11, 2022

Russia’s actions regarding energy resources are aimed at ensuring market stability, and not creating obstacles for anyone, President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday while meeting with his UAE counterpart, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, in St. Petersburg.

The leader of the UAE is on an official visit to Russia to discuss cooperation between the two countries, as well as regional and international issues.

“We are actively working within the framework of OPEC+. I know your position, our actions, our decisions are not directed against anyone … They are aimed at stability in the world energy markets, so that both consumers of energy resources and those involved in their production, as well as suppliers feel calm, stable and confident. So that the supply and demand will be balanced,” Putin said.

Last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to an oil production cut of 2 million barrels per day starting in November. The reduction, which is the largest output cut since early 2020, was approved despite US pressure to pump more. It is expected to stem the latest slide in global oil prices.

US President Joe Biden expressed disappointment with the decision, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called the move “unhelpful and unwise.”

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak, who attended the OPEC+ meeting, said that the output cut is necessary to balance the market before the seasonal decline in demand.

According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Washington seeks to force through its decisions regarding the oil market and manipulate prices, even at the cost of destabilizing the global energy market.

Analysts interviewed by Bloomberg warn that the output cut may lead to a jump in oil prices above $100 a barrel and force the US to tap its strategic reserves. They also believe that Russia may introduce even larger output cuts than those announced by OPEC+ in response to the introduction of an oil price cap by the EU last week. Given the rise in oil prices, Russia’s oil export profits are unlikely to suffer even with production cuts, they say.

October 11, 2022 Posted by | Economics | , | Leave a comment

Russia’s retaliatory strikes mark new phase of conflict in Ukraine 

Kiev is unlikely to change its behaviour and will continue to carry out orders from the West

By Ahmed Adel | October 11, 2022

Continued strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure following the terrorist attack on the Kerch Bridge, more commonly known as the Crimean Bridge, can cause serious damage to Ukraine’s industry and significantly reduce the country’s combat capability. Russian strikes hit energy facilities in 12 regions across Ukraine on October 10, affecting power, internet and central heating, and in which Ukraine’s energy minister Herman Halushchenko described as “the biggest [attack] during the entire war.” In fact, the Russian strikes were so powerful that the Ukrainian energy ministry said in a statement that it must halt exports of electricity to the European Union.

“Today’s missile strikes, which hit the thermal generation and electrical substations, forced Ukraine to suspend electricity exports from Oct. 11, 2022 to stabilise its own energy system,” the ministry said.

It cannot be discounted that some factories involved in the production of weapons or the repair of military equipment could have been affected by the Russian strikes. Greater disruptions to Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure will inevitably also lower the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian military, which will also have an effect on mobility, replenishment of reserves, transportation and repair of equipment.

The retaliatory strikes occurred immediately after the statements made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 9. Symbolically, the Ukrainians discussed that they would give Putin “a gift” for his birthday, which is on October 7. On October 8 the Kerch Bridge was attacked. The terrorist strike was even commemorated in Kiev with the issuing of a postal stamp, even though three civilians were killed.

On October 10, at a working meeting with members of the Security Council, Putin announced that a series of high-precision missile strikes from air, sea and land targeted infrastructure throughout Ukraine. The Russian president then described the incident on the Kerch bridge as a terrorist attack aimed at destroying civilian infrastructure. According to him, Ukraine has placed itself on the same level as the most feared terrorist groups across the world, such as ISIS, and Russia simply cannot allow crimes of this kind to go unanswered.

For his part, Commander Apti Alaudinov commented on the recent air strikes against Ukraine’s military and energy infrastructure, noting that Russia could have carried them out a long time ago.

“Ukraine for many years – eight years – has tested the nerves of both Russia and the territories inhabited by the Russian-speaking community… It is a pity for those who may have to suffer the attacks, innocent people… but in the end, the people must understand that their leaders get mad and throw all their people into the furnace of war. It’s impossible that everything will be fine with them when something bad happens to us,” he said.

Strikes against Kiev and other parts of Ukraine signals a new phase of the war after Russia made all efforts to find a peaceful solution. It is recalled that there were also widespread reports that Moscow was ready for a peace agreement, but it was prevented by the arrival of then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to Kiev, who quite literally destroyed such plans.

It is little surprise that endless statements from Kiev, Washington, Brussels and London repeat that the only solution to ending the war is with Russia’s defeat. Effectively, the Russians have no one to negotiate with as none of the major parties are interested in a peaceful solution. On the contrary, there was an escalation by Ukraine since there was a terrorist attack on civilian infrastructure.

Effectively, Russia is forced to launch a real war, which will be far more devastating for Ukraine, especially since Moscow has refrained from major strikes for all these months.

Even with the assassination of Russian citizens, such as Darya Dugina, Moscow remained restrained with its responses. However, the Kerch Bridge, as already proven, is a line which Russia will not allow to be crossed without retaliation. 

Strikes and military action will continue until there is a change in the situation and Kiev’s attitude towards Moscow. It is more than likely that the decision to target the Kerch Bridge was not concocted in Kiev and is rather an attempt by the West to humiliate Russia when considering the date of the bridge attack was carefully chosen and the media covered this terrorist act with a birthday greeting to Putin. 

Even after Russia’s actions, Kiev itself will not change its behaviour and will continue to servilely carry out orders from the West and act according to the goals that are in line with Washington’s political strategy. The Ukrainian army enjoys material, logistical and intelligence support from the West, and its ranks include special forces from Romania, Poland and other NATO countries. For these reasons, Russia is moving the war into the next phase, especially as NATO is directly participating in military operations and civilian infrastructure are being targeted in terrorist attacks.

Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

October 11, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , , | Leave a comment

Lavrov Says Russia Received No Serious Proposals From US on Talks, Calls US Remarks Lies

Samizdat – 11.10.2022

MOSCOW – Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov slammed on Tuesday US statements that Russia left unanswered Washington’s proposals on negotiations on Ukraine as lies, noting that Moscow received no serious proposals.

“This is a lie [that Russia refuses to negotiate]. We did not receive any serious proposals to enter into contact. There were some not very serious calls, to which we also did not respond negatively, but offered to formulate specific proposals, with which some people want to contact us through indirect contacts. And in this case, we did not receive more specific explanations from anyone,” Lavrov told the Rossiya 1 broadcaster.

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday that a way out of the situation around Ukraine should be sought through diplomacy. At the same time, he noted that Washington did not see Russia’s serious intentions to negotiate with Kiev.

Moscow is not aware of details of Ankara’s new initiative to organize talks between Russia and several Western states on the situation in Ukraine, Sergey Lavrov said.

“It is obvious to me that if the Turkish colleagues have thought about this, then they will have a great opportunity this week during the meeting of presidents [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan and [Vladimir] Putin, who will be together at the events in Astana, to raise such issues. We haven’t heard anything other than public announcements,” Lavrov said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision not to engage in dialogue with Russia may change depending on his mood and the West’s position, Lavrov said.

“I do not rule out that he, as he forbade himself [to talk with Russia], will then forget about it, depending on his mood when he gets up in the morning and what he does. Well, or he will receive an order from Washington, from London – he will say ‘Yes’ and figure out how to explain all this so as not to lose face,” Lavrov stressed.

On October 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with the Russian Security Council, said Moscow has made precision strikes on infrastructure facilities across Ukraine in the morning. Putin called the recent blast on Russia’s Crimean Bridge a Ukrainian terrorist attack aimed at destroying Russian civilian infrastructure. According to him, Kiev has put itself on a par with the most odious terrorist groups, and it is impossible to leave the crimes of the Kiev regime unanswered any longer.

Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, after the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics appealed for help in defending themselves against Ukrainian provocations. In response to Russia’s operation, Western countries have rolled out a comprehensive sanctions campaign against Moscow and have been supplying weapons to Ukraine.

October 11, 2022 Posted by | Deception, Militarism | , , | Leave a comment

Qatari and US gas won’t save Europe

By Vladimir Danilov – New Eastern Outlook – 11.10.2022 

Experts estimate that in order to avoid a catastrophic fall in GDP and the risk of a prolonged economic depression, the total public spending by European countries to mitigate the energy collapse unleashed by Washington will have to exceed €1 trillion!  A crisis of this magnitude would result in more bankruptcies and a domino effect in the finance sector, the scaling back of investment programs by businesses and a drop in consumer demand.  The main negative effect will be that a number of the most energy-intensive industries will become uncompetitive due to gas shortages and rising energy costs. Depending on what scenario will unfold, such industries would be forced to reduce production by up to 60% compared to 2021. In turn, the shutdown would result in job cuts that could affect upwards of 1.5 million people.

Under these circumstances, objective No. 1 for Europe is to make its way out of the energy crisis as quickly as possible along with finding gas suppliers to the EU market that are not affected by the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the Europeans themselves.

Under pressure from Washington, Europe has ditched cheap and guaranteed pipeline gas supplied via Nord Streams 1 and 2. It even acquiesced to the terrorist attack by the US and its accomplices to undermine the two pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Under these circumstances, the EU has been forced to turn its attention to global LNG suppliers in the hope of improving its disastrous energy supply situation by increasing cooperation with them.

Qatar is famously the world’s leading LNG market now, accounting for 26.5% of all shipments. Australia is in second place with 26%, while the US (14.7%) and Russia (10%) are in third and fourth place, respectively.

However, the US, despite its pompous declaration when initiating the gas war with Russia that it would provide Europe with gas, after the Europeans did expel Russia from their market, has already declared that it in fact cannot provide the EU with gas. US shale investors have admitted that the amount of production they have so far is all they can hope for. Therefore, as The Financial Times reported, US shale oil and gas producers have already warned that they will not be able to increase production to help Europe deal with the energy crisis this winter.

As for Qatar, this small state in the Middle East prefers to trade gas with Asia rather than with Europe for a number of reasons. First, because there is a smaller shipment distance. And second, the Qatari leadership is highly sensitive to political demands from the EU regarding energy exporters. In addition, it is also important that China, the main consumer of Qatari gas, pays a premium for every 1,000 cubic meters of LNG.

Against this background, as well as the imposition of sanctions against Russia and a significant reduction in Russian fuel supplies, the cost of gas in Europe continues to rise at a galloping rate. To do something about the rise, the EU has made the utopian decision of reducing gas consumption by 15% from August 1, 2022 to the end of March 2023, even though many Europeans refuse to do so. In addition, the European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen, who is far removed, among other things, from the economic laws in force in the world, has announced that the EU will consider introducing a ceiling price for imported Russian gas amid the energy crisis. However, as might be expected, so far the EU member states have not been able to agree on this measure, which runs counter to any supplier of goods, and indeed to WTO rules.

Under these circumstances, European leaders doubled down on their attempts to, at least on the individual country level, reach an agreement with Qatar on additional gas supplies. For this reason, a number of European politicians of various ranks have already paid repeated visits to Qatar over the past six months.

The US has become involved in persuading Qatar to supply more gas to Europe, including at the expense of its commitments to provide gas to Asia. According to “Washington’s strategists,” it is not difficult for the US to put pressure on Qatar, considering that the largest US military base in the entire Middle East is stationed in that country. This means there is no need to smuggle in, similar to the terrorist attacks against North Streams 1 and 2, appropriate “saboteurs,” explosives, organize the operation, etc. Furthermore, it was with the aim of fully tying Qatar to the US that, during the visit of the Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to the White House in early February this year, US President Joe Biden called Qatar a “major non-NATO ally” and the Emir a “good friend and a reliable and capable partner.” In addition, the US leader promised that Qatar would soon be assigned a “major non-NATO ally” status.

Right now Qatar sells about 5-10 million tons of LNG to Europe. Over the next 5 to 10 years, as Saad al-Kaabi, Qatari Minister of Energy, promised at the Energy intelligence forum conference in London, 12-15 million tons of Qatari natural gas will flow steadily into Europe if the situation remains as it is and if European countries continue to struggle with other sources of energy. For its part, however, Qatar is demanding that the EU sign a long-term contract for LNG supplies, which Doha was encouraged to do by a recent 15-year agreement Germany signed on LNG supplies from the US. Doha is also being persuaded by Europe’s plans to find an alternative to gas from Russia, in which Qatar, with its plans to invest tens of billions of dollars in boosting production over the next five years, could be a key part of the solution. At the same time, Qatar imposes rather stringent conditions, giving buyers little scope to divert supplies, unlike contracts with the US. However, EU leaders have been demanding shorter contracts, demagogically explaining their position by the desire to reduce pollution, which has already brought negotiations on import deadlines to a standstill since March. And as for the EU’s “drive to reduce pollution,” this demagogy by European leaders is nothing short of hilarious, given that more and more EU countries are actively switching to coal.

In a bid to reach a gas deal with Europe, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, came to the Czech Republic on October 5 at an official invitation from President Miloš Zeman. This meeting with the Emir of Qatar was important for the Czech and European authorities at large, as the EU hoped that, if the negotiations turned out to be successful, they could establish alternative routes for gas supplies amid the energy crisis. Alternative to Russia, that is. In this regard, the Qatari leader was also scheduled to speak at an informal meeting with EU member state leaders on October 7, and the visit itself was to last several days. However, the meeting turned into a major scandal: on October 5 the sheikh only had time to meet with Miloš Zeman immediately after his arrival in the country and Prime Minister Petr Fialla, before his plane left Prague. As Czech diplomatic sources explained, “the Qatari side has put forward demands that the Czech side cannot meet.”

To further clarify the situation, it should be recalled that Qatar’s geographical location gives it leeway in terms of gas supply channels. Today, up to 68% of Qatar’s LNG production is destined for Asia and 27% for Europe. Europe consumes about 450 billion cubic meters of gas a year, and Russia used to supply about half that volume. Therefore, the US proposal of 15 billion cubic meters of LNG (at higher prices than pipeline Russian gas) as an alternative to Russian gas, made back when starting the gas war in the European market, can only be regarded as a mockery and as a clear non-competitive struggle for the European gas market. Thus, it was already back then clear to everyone, except for some EU leaders like Ursula von der Leyen, Charles Michel and Josep Borrell who are explicitly subsidized by the US, that the US was firmly putting the EU on the line by forcing it to give up Russian gas altogether.

It is also no secret that Russia has been supplying LNG by tankers to the very Klaipeda, Lithuania, which claims it is receiving Qatari gas. In reality, however, Russia and Qatar have a very simple agreement – Russia supplies LNG from Yamal to Lithuania and it is considered Qatari, while Qatar supplies its LNG to China and it is considered Russian. The scheme benefits Qatar because it saves on transport costs and, in these circumstances, Doha will not abandon it for the “noble idea” of saving Europe.

Furthermore, it should not be forgotten that the average volume of standard gas carriers used to transport liquefied gas over long distances is 145,000 cubic meters. From this volume of LNG, 90 million cubic meters of gas are produced after regasification. Each shipping voyage lasts up to 14 days. However, one gas carrier can only make one voyage per month, and the transport itself costs several hundred thousand dollars, which includes fuel, crew salaries and the ship’s rent.

The US does not have that many specialized tankers in principle to at least compensate the EU for Nord Stream 2. Therefore, the people of Europe need to seriously investigate this shady deal by the US to initiate an energy crisis in Europe, namely who was the executor of these blatantly anti-European plans of Washington and how much personal profit have they made from the poverty and misery of ordinary Europeans.

October 11, 2022 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity, Russophobia | , , , | Leave a comment

Ukraine halts electricity exports to EU

Samizdat | October 11, 2022

Damage to energy infrastructure caused by Moscow’s air strikes has forced Ukraine’s government to cut off electricity exports to the European Union, taking away a supply source that Kiev claims helped its partners reduce their reliance on power generated with Russian natural gas.

“Today’s missile strikes, which hit the thermal generation and electrical substations, forced Ukraine to suspend electricity exports from October 11, 2022, to stabilize its own energy system,” the Ukrainian energy ministry said on Monday in a statement.

The ministry noted that even after losing control of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant to Russian forces in March, Kiev had been able to meet its export commitments to European partners, but Monday’s attacks were the largest of the entire conflict. “The cynicism is that the entire supply chain has been hit,” Energy Minister German Galushchenko said. “It’s both electricity distribution systems and generation. The enemy’s goal is to make it difficult to reconnect electricity supplies from other sources.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday’s air strikes on Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities – targeting military, energy and communications infrastructure – came in response to Ukraine’s attack on the strategic Crimean Bridge on Saturday.

“If there are further attempts to conduct terrorist attacks on our soil, Russia will respond firmly and on a scale corresponding to the threats created against Russia,” Putin announced.

Galushchenko, however, accused Moscow of waging “energy terror” in retaliation for Kiev helping other countries reduce their dependence on Russia. After joining European energy system ENTSO-E back in June, Kiev said it expected to earn some €1.5 billion from electricity exports to the EU by the end of the year.

“That is why Russia is destroying our energy system, killing the very possibility of exporting electricity from Ukraine,” the energy minister claimed.

Ukrenergo, the national power grid operator, claimed its specialists have been “engaging backup supply schemes” and repaired some of the damage by Monday night.

In the meantime the ministry urged “all citizens of Ukraine to unite” and minimize their energy use during the peak demand hours, arguing that not only Ukraine is implementing measures to reduce power consumption, but the “whole of Europe is doing this now.”

October 10, 2022 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

It’s Time To Tell Biden We Say ‘NO!’ To Nuclear War!

By Ron Paul | October 10, 2022

Last week the New York Times ran a shocking article claiming that the US intelligence community believes the Ukrainian government to be responsible for the August attack that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian philosopher.

Surely the established narrative that Ukraine is a model western democracy standing strong for our shared values against an aggressive Russian invader is damaged with reporting that Kiev conducted an al-Qaeda style attack on an innocent civilian inside Russia. The murder of Dugina was a textbook definition of terrorism, which is, “the use of violence or the threat of violence, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political goals.”

Just over a month later, the Nordstream pipelines were blown up, seemingly ending at least in the near term the possibility that Germany may find a way to save its economy by mending fences with its main energy supplier. A leading Polish politician thanked the US for doing the job.

Then over the weekend, the bridge connecting mainland Russia to Crimea was bombed, killing at least six civilians and leaving part of the bridge under water. Traffic was restored hours after the attack, but Russian President Vladimir Putin placed the blame on Ukraine’s intelligence service. We all know that Ukraine relies on its US masters, so we can assume the US provided the intelligence allowing the targeting of the bridge.

There is a pattern here. More and more brazen attacks are being launched against Russia and Washington is doing little to hide US fingerprints. Why?

The Biden Administration seems to be moving us closer to nuclear war over Ukraine and Biden himself seems to know it. Last week he said, Putin “is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons…” For the “first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use [of nuclear weapons] if in fact things continue down the path they are going.”

So the question is if he knows that his proxy war against Russia is moving us closer to the unthinkable – nuclear annihilation – why does his Administration persist in crossing red line after red line? Apparently, Biden’s “experts” believe that Putin is bluffing and will do nothing about the Dugina assassination, the Nordstream pipeline sabotage, and the Kerch Bridge attack.

But what if they’re wrong?

Normally foreign policy action should be weighed on a cost/benefit basis. Will adopting one particular policy benefit the United States more than the risks involved? In this case there is absolutely nothing on the positive side of the ledger. Will the security and prosperity of the United States benefit more from regime change in Russia than it would suffer should nuclear war break out?

It doesn’t seem all that hard. No.

So what’s going on here? Why does the US Administration – with the support of most Republicans in Congress – continue to send tens of billions of dollars in military aid and move us toward nuclear war over a conflict that has nothing at all to do with the United States?

The time to end US participation in this war is yesterday. And if it takes millions of Americans in the streets peacefully protesting while demanding that their representatives stop this madness, then bring it on. Tomorrow may be too late.

Copyright © 2022 by RonPaul Institute.

October 10, 2022 Posted by | Militarism | , , | Leave a comment

UAE President to visit Russia for bilateral talks

The Cradle | October 10, 2022

The President of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, will visit Russia on 11 October to discuss a series of national and international topics with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

The bilateral talks were announced by the Russian Presidential Spokesman Dimitry Peskov on 10 October.

The visit comes less than a week after OPEC+ member and nonmember states decided to cut oil production output by 2 million barrels per day, defying the hopes and expectations of the Biden administration to curb rising energy prices.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre accused OPEC+ on 5 October of “aligning with Russia,” and claimed their decision “is shortsighted while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of [Russia’s] invasion of Ukraine,” in reference to the crisis caused by western sanctions imposed on Russia’s energy sector and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Jean-Pierre added that President Joe Biden is consulting with congress “on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices.”

In May of this year, the US Senate approved the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (NOPEC) Act, which could open OPEC member states and their partners to antitrust lawsuits for “orchestrating supply cuts that raise global crude prices.”

The bipartisan legislation would modify US antitrust law to revoke the sovereign immunity that protects sovereign states from lawsuits. This, in turn, would give the US attorney general the ability to sue OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Russia in federal court.

According to the New York Times, analysts have argued that Saudi Arabia is determined to bring the price back above the $90 benchmark.

However, the chief of Saudi Aramco’s operations, Amin Nasser, said that the move to lower output was a decision made based on the international energy markets and fears over a looming recession.

“Even if we decide we are going to increase investment, it is going to be difficult; it will take a number of years,” Nasser said as he warned that the world could experience a serious supply crisis in the energy sectors.

October 10, 2022 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

Crimean Bridge reopens for traffic after explosion

Samizdat | October 8, 2022

Road traffic on the Crimean Bridge, which was damaged by a truck explosion earlier on Saturday, has partly resumed, and trains are expected to start moving later in the evening.
“The movement of vehicles along the Crimean Bridge has resumed. At the moment, traffic is open to cars and buses with a full inspection procedure,” the head of the Republic of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, announced on Telegram.

Truck drivers are advised to use the Kerch ferry crossing, he added.

Russia’s Transport Ministry said that road traffic was reopened on the bridge, with one lane available for traffic, alternating in both directions.

Following an initial assessment of the damage to the bridge’s railway, the ministry said the “organization of the movement of the first trains will be ensured by 20:00 Moscow time.”

Earlier on Saturday, Russia’s Investigative Committee said the explosion of a truck on the bridge caused seven fuel tanks of a train heading towards Crimea to ignite. Three people are believed to have died as a result of the incident.

The All-Russian Union of Insurers has estimated the damage done to the bridge at 200-500 million rubles ($3.2 to 8 million).

Kiev, despite top officials celebrating the blast, stopped short of claiming responsibility. Nevertheless, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu congratulated the “Ukrainian special operations units who are believed to be behind this operation.”

Since the launch of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine in late February, various Ukrainian officials have vowed to attack the Crimean Bridge. Kiev views the peninsula as its own territory which was illegally “annexed,” in spite of the fact that the region voted overwhelmingly to reunite with Russia following the 2014 Maidan coup in Kiev.

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October 8, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | | Leave a comment