To secure peace in Ukraine, Trump must review misguided western sanctions
By Ian Proud | Strategic Culture Foundation | November 17, 2024
Following Trump’s election, there has been much speculation about how the war in Ukraine might end. But to understand how it might end, it’s vital to understand how it started.
The origins of the war in Ukraine can be traced back to the ouster of Ukrainian President Yanukovych in February 2014. Russia labelled it a coup, realists would say it was unconstitutional change in power, and U.S. & British officials would shrug their shoulders.
After Russia occupied Crimea and as insurgency broke out in the Donbas, the French and Germans launched a peace process involving the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine. From this so-called ‘Normandy format’ emerged two peace deals named the Minsk agreements. But the UK was sidelined from the peace process and the Americans suspicious of it.
Left out, Britian, supported by the U.S., pushed sanctions as the primary vehicle to contain Russia, running counter to what the French and Germans were trying to achieve. By the summer of 2015, the Minsk agreements had become sidelined, and sanctions were set in stone.
Since that time, Russia has become the most sanctioned country on the planet. Thirty-three western countries, led by the USA, imposed more than twenty thousand sanctions against Russian people and companies. That’s fifteen times more sanctions than Iran in a distant second place.
If we could completely cut Russia’s economic ties with the west, so the theory went, then that would be so damaging that Russia would have to withdraw from Ukraine. Western powers therefore sanctioned everything that they could, from money, ships, oil, gold, diamonds, weapons and all manner of hi-tech components. But from a very early stage, it was clear that sanctions weren’t altering Russian policy to Ukraine, quite the opposite.
When I left the Foreign Office in 2023, the UK government with its western partners, had gone through all the sanctions that they thought might weaken Russia. The west could probably find more people or entities to sanction. But policy makers never really gripped Russian gas, as some European countries still rely on it. And anyway, the destruction of the Nordstream pipeline solved that conundrum. Russian oligarchs that had political connections in the west were spared as were Russian companies that owned factories in the USA, to prevent American job losses. But we hit most things and neared the bottom of the barrel.
Yet, Russia’s economy always seemed to bounce back. That’s partly because, sanctions were never as big a deal as other events that moved the global economy, such as the oil price collapses in 2014 and 2016 and Covid. But it was also because Russia continually adapted its macroeconomic policy to absorb and, in the end, profit from sanctions. Following an immediate post-sanctions contraction of economic growth in 2022, Russia has grown more strongly than the western countries that imposed sanctions.
Western powers therefore needed something stronger, so sanctions evolved into a political tool to isolate Russia on the world stage. The USA, European Union and other countries including Japan and Australia sanctioned every possible type of economic, social and cultural activity involving Russia. Western academics no longer collaborate with Russian academics. Russian airliners can’t pass over western airspace and vice versa. Border posts have been closed or minimised. Russia can’t compete in international sporting events or even the Eurovision song contest.
Russian Ministers are subjected to indignant walkouts by western diplomats and ministers at international gatherings. Ordinary Russian people were denied a weekend ParkRun. Ukraine did its part, cancelling the Russian Orthodox church and going on a propaganda offensive with any western company that sold goods with the word ‘Russia’ in their branding.
And yet, outside of the west, Russia’s standing on the global stage doesn’t seem to be in decline. In a process accelerated by the Ukraine war, Russia, with China, has spearheaded a rapid shift by the developing world to create their own formats for dialogue and cooperation. There are over 200 countries on this planet, so the wealthy ‘west’ is in a minority. The BRICS group has grown rapidly, with a long queue of countries waiting to join, including NATO member Turkey. Vladimir Putin has an International Criminal Court arrest warrant out on him, yet he still travels freely to ‘friendly’ countries, where he receives the red-carpet treatment. He recently hosted a successful BRICS summit in Kazan while war continued to rage in Ukraine.
War started in February 2022 a few days after the Ukrainian government finally signalled the death knell of the Minsk peace agreements. But the point is that the Minsk agreement was [not] necessarily bad; it’s simply that the U.S. and UK invested significant efforts in ensuring its failure.
Sanctions never looked likely to prevent war, nor force its end, despite the death or injury to over one million people and a vast exodus of Ukraine’s population. War in Ukraine became reduced to the brutal, bloody town by town fighting in Europe after D-Day, while life in the west, and in Russia, carried on almost as normal. Fighting alone, Ukraine has never had sufficient resources to survive and never will.
There is a strong case that sanctions created the conditions for war to erupt, by undermining the very peace process – the Normandy Format – that was established to prevent it. And that the west’s continued blind faith in sanctions took us to the brink of a doomsday scenario, more horrific than the use of nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Western leaders, not wanting war themselves, focussed blindly on supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes. But the notion of ‘as long as it takes’ became tarnished with increasing numbers of western politicians started complaining that it is taking too long. Not least as the economics and demographics of war still show that Russia can continue fighting for as long as it takes, and that Vladimir Putin has the domestic political support to do that.
So, beyond the hype, if Trump is serious about ending the war in Ukraine, he must look at its origins. A ceasefire alone won’t cut it with Putin. There needs finally to be a peace proposal that includes targeted sanctions reduction. That, and a final reckoning with the NATO membership issue, the brightest red line of all.
Biden Authorizes Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes Into Russia Using ATACMS Missiles – Reports
By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 17.11.2024
The US and its allies spent months debating whether or not to give Ukraine the go-ahead to use its NATO-provided long-range strike systems to target Russia. In September, President Putin warned that allowing Kiev to use its Western long-range missiles on Russia would mean NATO’s direct participation in a war against the Russian Federation.
President Biden has signed off on the Ukrainian military’s use of US-made ATACMS missiles to try to help defend its faltering positions in Ukrainian-occupied areas of Russia’s Kursk region, the New York Times reported on Sunday, citing US officials apprized of the situation.
Officials told the newspaper that they “do not expect the shift” in policy “to fundamentally alter the course of the war” (NYT’s phrasing), and indicated that Biden could further authorize Kiev to use the weapons in directions besides Kursk in the future.
Washington reportedly expects the ATACMS to be used to strike troop concentrations, military equipment, logistics, ammunition depots and supply lines, all with the goal of “blunt[ing] the effectiveness” of the ongoing Russian military operation to clear Kursk of Ukrainian forces.
According to NYT’s information, some Pentagon officials opposed delivering the missile systems to Ukraine in the first place due to the US Army’s limited supply. Others reportedly expressed fears that their delivery and use could escalate the conflict and even prompt direct Russian retaliation against US and NATO forces – something President Putin has explicitly warned about.
The ATACMS go-ahead also appears to be connected to to the increasingly dire situation for Ukrainian forces across the front, with US officials said to have become “increasingly concerned” about the Ukrainian army being “stretched thin by simultaneous Russian assaults in the east, Kharkov and now Kursk.”
President-elect Trump’s statements about seeking to quickly end the conflict have also reportedly weighed in the outgoing administration’s decision, NYT said.
What Are ATACMS?
The Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is a solid-fuel, surface-to-surface ballistic missile with an effective firing range of up to 300 km, and a maximum velocity during boost phase of up to Mach 3, or 1 km/second.
The weapon’s ordinance varies wildly depending on model and block number, and can include 500 pound (230 kg) penetrating high-explosive blast fragmentation warheads, or other explosives weighing between 160 and 560 kg, including anti-personnel and materiel cluster ‘bomblets’. ATACMS also vary in terms of the guidance systems they carry, which can include inertial guidance and/or built-in GPS.
An unspecified number of ATACMS were ‘quietly’ shipped to Ukraine in the spring of 2024, with the US restricting their use to the local battlespace, and the Russian military regularly reporting on the downing scores of the weapons in fighting over the summer.
President Putin’s September warning about the implications of NATO countries freeing Kiev’s hand to use long-range missiles to target areas deep inside Russia seemed to have influenced alliance plans to do so, with the bloc publicly backpeddling on its plans later that month.
US Democrats demand Musk be probed for Russia ties
RT | November 16, 2024
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk should be investigated over media claims that he communicated with several senior Russian officials in recent years, two top Democratic senators have demanded in a letter.
Jack Reed, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Jeanne Shaheen, a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee, raised concerns about the media allegations in a letter to US Attorney General Merrick Garland and Pentagon Inspector General Robert Storch on Friday.
In October, at the height of the US presidential election, the Wall Street Journal claimed that Musk had communicated with several top Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, as recently as this year.
Musk oversees billions of dollars in US government contracts as CEO of SpaceX. As the tech billionaire claims to hold top secret level security clearance, and manages extremely sensitive government contracts, his potential communication with Russia is a risk, the senators said.
“These relationships between a well-known US adversary and Mr. Musk, a beneficiary of billions of dollars in US government funding, pose serious questions regarding Mr. Musk’s reliability as a government contractor and a clearance holder,” they wrote.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov blasted the pre-election WSJ claims about the billionaire’s alleged phone calls with Putin as “disinformation.” Historically, there has only been one call between the two, he said.
“It was before 2022, they spoke over the telephone,” Peskov stated, adding that they discussed Russia’s scientific progress, and likely future developments. “There were no contacts between Musk and Putin after that, and all claims otherwise are false.”
The spokesman noted the claims are likely related to the “extremely confrontational electoral political fight” in the US.
After his victory in the US presidential race, Donald Trump announced that Musk will head the future Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The initiative will aim to cut trillions of dollars in “waste and fraud” in annual US government spending, “dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies,” Trump said on Thursday.
Musk said his role in DOGE “is going to be a revolution.”
This time Trump really means business
By Fyodor Lukyanov | Rossiyskaya Gazeta | November 13, 2024
US President-elect Donald Trump has moved quickly to form his proposed new administration. His team is better prepared to take power than it was in 2016 – when neither the candidate himself nor the vast majority of his supporters believed he could win.
It’s too early to draw far-reaching conclusions, but in general, the composition of the preferred government reflects the ideological and political coalition that has gathered around the president-elect. From the outside, it may look motley, but so far it is all in line with Trump’s views.
Contrary to the perception actively propagated by Trump’s opponents, he is not an unpredictable and inconsistent eccentric. More precisely, we should separate his character and mannerisms, which are flighty, from his overall worldview. The latter has not changed, not only in the years since Trump entered big politics, but more generally in his public life since the 1980s. It suffices to look through the old interviews of the famed tycoon to see this: ‘Communism (in the broadest sense) is evil’, ‘the allies must pay up’, ‘the American leadership does not know how to make favorable deals but I do’, and so on.
Trump’s personal qualities are important. But more importantly, in a somewhat cartoonish way, he embodies a set of classic Republican notions. America is at the center of the universe. However, not as a hegemon that rules everything, but simply as the best and most powerful country. It must be the strongest, including (or especially) militarily, in order to advance its interests wherever and whenever it needs to. Essentially, there is no need for Washington to get directly involved in world affairs at all.
Profit is an absolute imperative for the future president (he is a businessman), and this does not contradict conservative ideals. America is a country built on the spirit of enterprise. Hence his rejection of over-regulation and his general suspicion of the extensive powers of the bureaucracy. In this, Trump joins forces with the equally flamboyant libertarian Elon Musk, who promises to rid the state of a hodgepodge of bureaucrats.
Musk himself is unlikely to be hanging around the president’s office for long, but politicians who think along these lines are likely to be there.
An important difference between the new Trump cohort and traditional Republicans is a significantly lower degree of ideologization of politics in general and international politics in particular. Domestically, the rejection of an aggressive agenda in the spirit of the Woke movement and the imposition of the cult of minorities (which the Republicans call ‘Marxism’ and ‘communism’) plays an important role. It’s about imposition, because the human right to any lifestyle is not in itself questioned by conservatives. For example, key figures around Trump – ardent supporter and former ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell and billionaire Peter Thiel – are married to men.
In foreign policy, the conceptual difference is that Trump and his entourage do not believe, as the Biden White House does, that at the core of international relations is the struggle of democracies against autocracies. This does not mean ideological neutrality. The idea of the ‘free world’ and criticism of ‘communism’ (in which they include China, Cuba, Venezuela, and by inertia, Russia) plays an important role in the thinking of many Republicans. But the defining factor is something else – intolerance of those who for various reasons do not accept American supremacy.
Trump’s choice for national security adviser, Michael Waltz, for example, speaks negatively and disparagingly of Russia, but not in terms of a need to be ‘re-educated’, but because it interferes with America. Marco Rubio, who is being considered for secretary of state, does not oppose regime change in his ancestral homeland of Cuba, but is otherwise not a militant supporter of American intervention anywhere.
The undoubted priority of the Trumpists and those who have joined them is to support Israel and confront its opponents, first and foremost Iran. Last year, Elise Stefanik, the likely US ambassador to the UN, publicly shamed the presidents of leading American universities in Congress for alleged anti-Semitism. It is worth remembering that the only really effective use of force in Trump’s first term was the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the head of the special forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Trump is not a warrior. Threats, pressure, violent demonstrations – yes. A large-scale armed campaign and mass bloodshed – why? Perhaps because of the peculiarities of relations with China, which is clearly seen as the number one rival. Not in a military sense, but rather in the political and economic sphere, so any ‘war’ with it (forcing it to accept terms favorable to America) should be cold and ruthless. This also applies in part to Russia, though the situation is very different. All of this is neither good nor bad for Moscow. Or to put it another way, it’s both good and bad. But the main thing is that it is not the way it has been up to now.
Fyodor Lukyanov is the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
This article was first published by the newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta and was translated and edited by the RT team
US Opens Provocative Missile Base in Poland
By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | November 14, 2024
After nearly two decades, President George W. Bush’s plan to put the Aegis Ashore missile system in Poland was achieved this week. The system is capable of firing offensive missiles, and is viewed as a serious national security threat by Russia.
The base is located in Redzikowo, Northern Poland, near the Baltic coast. During the base’s opening ceremony, Polish President Andrzej Duda said, “The whole world will see clearly that this is not Russia’s sphere of interest anymore… From the Polish point of view, this is strategically the most important thing.”
Since the base was announced by Bush, Washington has asserted that the purpose of installing the missile defense system in Poland, and a second in Romania, was to protect Europe from Iranian missile attacks.
However, the launchers that fire the Aegis interceptors can also fire offensive Tomahawk missiles. Previously, the US fielded a variant of the Tomahawk that was capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. The Kremlin views the presence of the launchers in Eastern Europe as a strategic threat to Russia.
As the base was under planning and construction, Russian President Vladimir Putin pressed multiple American presidents not to deploy the Aegis Ashore systems in Poland and Romania. The Polish Foreign Minister noted during the opening ceremony, “Governments changed in the United States, in Poland, [since] this base was created. This base is a monument not only to the Polish-American alliance, its stability, but also to the Polish-Polish alliance.”
Moscow argued that the system’s MK-41 launchers violated the INF Treaty, a bilateral arms control pact between the US and Russia. The treaty explicitly outlaws the deployment of intermediate land-based offensive missile launchers. The MK-41 can fire Tomahawks. During the first Donald Trump presidency, Washington unilaterally left the INF Treaty.
On Wednesday, the Kremlin Spokesman said Russia would respond to the base opening but did not provide details. “Of course, this requires the adoption of appropriate measures to maintain parity,” he stated.
While the Aegis system has created significant friction between Russia and NATO, Warsaw wants to further expand the missile base. Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Monday the scope of the shield needed to be expanded.
India-Russia ties ‘helpful’ for the world – foreign minister
RT | November 14, 2024
Friendly relations between Moscow and New Delhi are an important element of international stability, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told Sky News Australia in an interview published this week. According to the diplomat, the West should be less concerned about countries enjoying good relationships with Russia and more about diplomacy and ending the Ukraine conflict.
The minister defended New Delhi’s decision to increase oil purchases from Russia after the US and its allies slapped Moscow with unprecedented sanctions over the Ukraine conflict, which targeted Russia’s financial sector and international trade.
“If we had not made the moves we had, let me tell you the energy markets would have taken a completely different turn and actually would have precipitated a global energy crisis. It would have caused inflation across the world as a consequence,” Jaishankar said.
Imports of crude oil from Russia currently constitute nearly 40% of India’s total oil purchases, up from less than 1% before the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022. Earlier this week, the foreign minister said that he expected bilateral trade between the two nations to reach a target volume of $100 billion before 2030.
The minister was responding to Sky News host Sharri Markson, who said that New Delhi’s close ties to Moscow were causing “angst” in Australia. Jaishankar hit back by saying that “countries don’t have exclusive relationships” nowadays. Using the same logic, India should be worried about any country who has a relationship with its regional rival, Pakistan.
“What India has done and is doing with Russia is actually… helpful to the international community as a whole,” the minister said. He said that not only had India’s actions helped to avert a potential global energy crisis, but may also contribute to ending the fighting between Moscow and Kiev.
New Delhi can talk to both parties and “try to find some intersection in those conversations” to eventually find a way to get them both to the negotiating table, according to the top diplomat.
“I think the world, including Australia, needs such a country that will help bring this conflict back to the conference table,” he stated, adding that “conflicts rarely ends on the battlefield, mostly they end [through] negotiations.”
When further pressed by Markson on whether India is concerned about growing cooperation between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, Jaishankar replied that such developments, which were further encouraged by the Ukraine conflict, show that the West should also be primarily interested in ending the hostilities.
”It’s in everybody’s interest that the sooner the conflict ends the better,” the minister said. “The longer the conflict drags out… all sorts of things are going to happen. Not all those things could necessarily be to Australia’s advantage or… that of Western countries.”
BRICS stockpiling gold as the G7 weaponised finance
The predictable consequences of stealing Russia’s sovereign funds
By Glenn Diesen | November 13, 2024
The West’s decision to freeze and legalise the theft of Russian sovereign funds predictably diminished trust in the Western financial system, resulting in a huge demand for gold and other precious metals as a safe haven. Gold is not a yield-bearing asset, yet it preserves its value during turbulent times. There are some more twists to the story: There is a rise in demand for physical gold and a push to store it in their home countries due to the lack of trust it can be stored safely in the West.
What was done to Russia could happen to anyone. An adversary like China is obviously next in line as the economic coercion to prevent its continued development intensifies. The EU demands China must pay a “higher cost” for supporting Russia, linking Russia and China seemingly for the purpose of convincing Trump to continue the war in Ukraine. Even friendly countries such as India could be targeted anytime with secondary sanctions for failing to bow to the demands of Washington.
From the US seizure of Afghanistan’s sovereign funds to Britain confiscating Venezuela’s gold, there is evidently reason for distrust. The main shock to the system was nonetheless the legalisation of the theft of Russia’s sovereign funds, which was justified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The moral premise is dubious at best as it would obviously not be considered acceptable if countries around the world seized the funds of the US and its NATO allies to pay reparations to the countries they have invaded.
Even within Western countries, predictability diminishes as the rules of law weaken. A British journalist reporting from Donbas had his bank account frozen without a day in court.[1] In Canda, hundreds of people had their bank accounts frozen for organising or attending the trucker protest.[2] Even the British opposition politician, Nigel Farage (“Mr. Brexit”), had his account suspended for political reasons.[3] Metro Bank used access to its financial services to punish opposition to its gender ideology as it denied banking services to an organisation opposed to the medical transitioning of children.[4] With many similar cases emerging, the term “de-banking” has entered the vocabulary.
Inflation and weaponisation of the dollar, coupled with growing political instability, are compelling large powers to take their money out of the Western financial system. China is still making dollars with its great trade surplus, but there is a growing reluctance to buy Western bonds or even leave the money in the Western financial system. China lends these dollars to other countries around the world rather than reinvesting it into the US market.
BRICS countries also prefer buying physical gold and they are also moving it to their own countries. Central banks and investors are not interested in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a cheap and easy way to own gold. Paper gold is not trusted, and investors demand physical gold. The gold is not even trusted to be stored in Western vaults anymore. China is having hundreds of tonnes of gold shipped from the West to China. Switzerland alone sent 524 tonnes of gold to China in 2022.[5] India brought home 100 tonnes of gold from the UK in 2024, the first large shipment since 1991. The transfer and storage of these metals are neither convenient nor cheap, yet the collapse in trust demands drastic actions. Bloomberg reports on Singapore constructing a six-story warehouse “designed to hold 10,000 tons of silver, more than a third of global annual supply, and 500 tons of gold”.[6]
There are many reasons not to store assets in rogue states: Risk of seizure or confiscation, lack of transparency, economic volatility, political instability etc. Unfortunately, all of these symptoms are becoming associated with the G7 countries as the financial system was weaponised. A key lesson of sanctions is that severe and prolonged sanctions result in the rest of the world adapting by learning to live without the belligerent actors.
Large gold reserves safely protected within national borders can also become important as new trade and reserve currencies are promoted. Fiat currencies will lose much trust in the financial turmoil that awaits, and future alternatives may need to yet again be backed by gold. Gold will certainly play a greater role as BRICS prepares a post-American financial system.
[1] PETER HITCHENS: Freedom for all means freedom for nasty people – Mail Online – Peter Hitchens blog
[2] Canada Ends Its Freeze on Hundreds of Accounts Tied to Protests – The New York Times
[3] Debanking: How Nigel Farage’s Banking Woes Have Raised Serious Concerns Over Account Closures
[4] The terrifying rise of ‘debanking’ – spiked
[5] Switzerland sent 524 tonnes of gold to China last year, the most since 2018 | Euronews
[6] As the Rich Snap Up Gold Bars, Storage Vaults Brace for Business – Bloomberg
Iran, Russia, Turkey condemn Israeli atrocities in West Asia
Press TV – November 12, 2024
Iran, Russia, and Turkey have condemned the Israeli regime’s continuous atrocities in the West Asia region, calling for increased international efforts to secure an “immediate and permanent” ceasefire in Gaza.
A closing statement from the three countries following the 22nd international meeting on Syria in the Astana format, held in Kazakhstan’s capital, expressed their “strong condemnation and deep concern over the ongoing mass killings and criminal attacks by Israel in Gaza, as well as Israeli aggression in Lebanon and the West Bank.”
They called on the international community, in particular the UN Security Council, “to secure an immediate and permanent ceasefire and unhindered humanitarian access in Gaza.”
The trio also condemned Israeli military attacks on Syria, deeming such actions as violations of international law.
“[The sides] condemned all Israeli military strikes in Syria. [They] considered these actions as a violation of international law, international humanitarian law, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, and recognized them as destabilizing and exacerbating tensions in the region and called for the ceasing of these attacks,” the statement said.
The sides acknowledged the negative impact of the escalation of tensions in the region on Syria, underscoring the urgency for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), UN agencies, and all humanitarian actors to develop an emergency response for those who were forced to cross from Lebanon into Syria following the escalation of hostilities in Lebanon.
The Israeli regime has been conducting a genocide in Gaza for over a year, resulting in significant casualties. The regime has recently expanded its military aggression to Lebanon, causing numerous fatalities in the Arab country.
Israel has also conducted repeated attacks on Syria and others in the region as part of its escalated campaign of violence.
Call for Turkey-Syria normalization
The joint statement also stressed the importance of resumed contacts and continuing efforts to normalize relations between Ankara and Damascus.
They stressed the need to combat terrorism, facilitate the safe and voluntary return of Syrians with support from the UNHCR, advance the political process, and ensure that unrestricted humanitarian aid reaches all Syrians, as stated in the joint declaration.
The statement said that the sides “reaffirmed the importance of resuming contacts between Turkey and Syria on the basis of strict adherence to the principles of respect for the unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty of both countries.”
They “emphasized the importance of resuming contacts in this format,” it said.
The three parties agreed to hold the next round of the Astana talks on Syria in the first half of 2025.
Initiated in 2017, the Astana format is a series of negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in Syria.
It involves Russia, Iran, and Turkey as guarantor countries, alongside representatives from the Syrian government and opposition, the United Nations, and observer nations such as Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq.
The Astana process has been instrumental in facilitating dialogue among key stakeholders in the war on Syria, focusing on de-escalation zones, humanitarian aid, and political solutions.
Russia Will Not Tolerate Powers Alien to Black Sea to Establish Permanent Naval Presence There
Sputnik – 11.11.2024
Moscow is not going to allow powers alien to the Black Sea to maintain a permanent naval presence there, Russian presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev has said.
Russia has no intention of letting anyone weaken its positions in the region in question, Patrushev said during an interview with a Russian newspaper, adding that permanent naval presence of non-Black Sea countries in the waters “in violation of the Montreux Convention” will not be tolerated.
He further pointed out that the Russian Black Sea Fleet still retains its combat capabilities and is ready to repel all naval threats, despite the fact that Kiev’s “aggressive actions” in the region are being “coordinated by NATO specialists.”
In the meantime, Patrushev pointed out, the US and the UK have since lost much of their once-considerable naval power.
The British navy, for example, suffers from a severe deficit of sailors because naval service is simply no longer prestigious there, he said.
“The signs of naval power decline are seen in the US as well,” Patrushev added. “They have a massive fleet on paper, but in reality there is low morale among the seamen, chronic lack of personnel, the lack of repair capabilities and shipyard workers.”
Russia, on the other hand, maintains its status as one of the world’s leading naval powers and the Russian navy continues to perform all its duties, “including the most important one – nuclear deterrence.”
“Our opponents should know that Russia’s naval nuclear shield always stands guard over our country,” Patrushev stated.
He mentioned during the interview that while the US and its European allies pursue militarization of the Baltic Sea, Russia is taking additional measures to protect itself after Sweden and Finland joined NATO and against the backdrop of the Nord Stream blasts.
“Currently, ensuring security in the Baltic is the most important military and political task. Since the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, as well as against the background of the Nord Stream blasts, Russia has been taking additional measures to protect its territorial integrity and economic sovereignty,” Patrushev told the newspaper.
WaPo Putin-Trump call claim ‘pure fiction’ – Kremlin
RT | November 11, 2024
US President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not have a phone conversation about the Ukraine conflict, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.
The Washington Post claimed on Sunday that Trump called Putin after winning his second, albeit non-consecutive term as US president to discuss his vision regarding how the Ukrainian crisis could be deflated. Peskov said on Monday that the article was a “vivid example of the quality of information published by even some respectable outlets.”
“This absolutely does not correspond to reality. This is pure fiction. This information is simply false,” he told the press.
Kiev previously denied the claim made by the Washington Post in its piece that the Ukrainian government was informed about the phone call beforehand and gave its consent to the US-Russian engagement.
“Reports that the Ukrainian side was informed in advance of the alleged call are false,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman told Reuters on Sunday.
Trump had claimed while on the campaign trail that he could end the Ukraine conflict “in 24 hours,” if US voters grant him a second term in office. He reportedly intends to leverage US military and financial aid to Ukraine to pressure both Moscow and Kiev to achieve a compromise.
Russia, which currently has the advantage on the battlefield, has said that it will only accept an outcome that addresses the core causes of the Ukraine conflict. Those include NATO’s enlargement in Europe and Kiev’s discriminatory policies against ethnic Russians, according to Moscow.
The Washington Post reported a phone call between Trump and Putin based on accounts by sources “familiar with the matter,” who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Why Trump’s return is of little consequence to Iran
Press TV – November 10, 2024
Rolling sanctions imposed on Iran for years have generated a degree of endurance and resourcefulness which enables the country to deal with any possible fallout of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The mainstream Western media is already conjuring the things that will come out, citing what they call people briefed on his early plans saying he will drastically increase sanctions on Iran and throttle its oil sales as part of an aggressive strategy to undercut Tehran’s abilities.
Trump took a dim view of Iran during his first term, aborting a six-nation agreement with Tehran—known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. He also imposed what was described as a “maximum pressure” strategy in hopes Iran would abandon its anti-US and anti-Israeli policies.
However, he sounded contrite at an event for the New York Economic Club in September, where he fielded questions about his future plans, saying he would use sanctions as little as possible and singling out Russia and Iran.
“The problem with what we have with sanctions, and I was using the sanctions, but I put them on and take them off as quickly as possible, because ultimately it kills your dollar and it kills everything the dollar represents. And we have to continue to have that be the world currency. I think it’s important. I think we’d be losing a war.
“If we lost and we lost the dollar as much as the world currency, I think that would be the equivalent of losing a war. That would make us a third-world country. We can’t let it happen.
“So I use sanctions very powerfully against countries that deserve it. And then I take them off because, look, you’re losing Iran. You’re losing Russia. China is out there trying to get their currency to be the dominant currency, as you know better than anybody.
“All of these things are happening. You’re losing so many countries because there’s so much conflict with all of these countries that you’re going to lose that, and we can’t lose that.
“So I want to use sanctions as little as possible,” Trump said.
Analysts say a Trump administration return to a maximum-pressure campaign on Iran would mean tougher enforcement of US oil sanctions, but it could struggle to get China as Iran’s top crude customer to cooperate.
China, they say, could retaliate by strengthening work in the BRICS club of emerging economies, consisting of Iran, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and others, including by reducing reliance on the dollar in deals in oil and other goods.
Iranian officials have played down the significance of the US election result, with the government saying it will not affect the livelihoods of the Iranians.
“The US elections are not really our business. Our policies are steady and don’t change based on individuals. We made the necessary predictions before and there will not be change in people’s livelihoods,” Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Wednesday after Trump claimed victory.
Iranian economists think Trump’s return to power is unlikely to lead to any turbulence in the country’s economy.
Nevertheless, much depends on measures taken by state planners to deal with the situation. The history of sanctions has shown every threat entails an opportunity that can be used to stabilize the situation and improve.
Trump’s sanctions in 2018 initially led to a steep drop in Iran’s oil exports, but they forced the country to find alternative export channels and return the Iranian oil to the market.
Iran has also been able to tamp down the effect of American sanctions by expanding its trade with third countries through a proactive economic policy.
One should not forget the wise leadership of the country’s top authority to the accompaniment and support of the people which have greatly reduced and sometimes neutralized the effects of the sanctions.
Moreover, the hegemonic power of the United States is waning, and its last tactic of using economic sanctions as a weapon against countries is losing effectiveness in the face of rising multilateralism.
As reflected in Trump’s remarks, further resort of such coercive measures has grave consequences for the country.
China, Russia and Iran have built a trading system that uses mostly national currencies in trade, avoiding the dollar and exposure to US regulators, making sanctions enforcement tough.
When Trump imposed sanctions during his first term, Iran was an observer member of BRICS. Now, it is a full member of the expanding strategic and economic coalition, which has given it diverse means of trade and ways to effectively fend off any hostile measure.
Russia, India are early birds as Pax Americana is ending
By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR – Indian Punchline – November 10, 2024
The working visit of Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov to Mumbai and Delhi on November 11-12 has been in the cards for sometime. It assumes added interest today as, in a delightful coincidence, it overlaps with the beginning of the end of Pax Americana in international politics.
Manturov, 55, is one of the brightest stars of the new generation of leaders in the Russian political firmament with a brilliant record as an economist and technocrat in the energy and military-industrial complex, two key sectors of the economy.
President Vladimir Putin has entrusted him with responsibilities that go far beyond the portfolio of Minister of Trade and Industry, a position he held for 12 years until May 2024 when he was elevated as First Deputy Prime Minister. Manturov is now a familiar face at the high table when Putin takes meetings on Ukraine war, which shows he wears many hats.
Manturov is the co-chairman of Russian-Indian joint commission, alongside External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. To be sure, Jaishankar will have wide-ranging discussions with Manturov. Who else Manturov is meeting in Delhi will be an indication of the stirrings in the air in the Russian-Indian cooperation.
The timing of the visit is notable since the neoconservatives who dominated the Biden administration — Secretary of State Antony Blinken, CIA director William Burns, et al — are on their way out and a brave new world is taking shape in Washington, DC.
The influential CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ivo Daalder, who was the US ambassador to Nato, succinctly captured the imminent power shift in DC when he wrote in Politico in the weekend, “Trump won in a landslide. He helped Republicans take control of the Senate and may well help them keep the House (by the way, Republicans have flipped the House as well) — ensuring single-party control across all three branches of government. He can rightly claim a mandate to implement all the policies he touted… All the while, he’ll be shielded by a Supreme Court.”
Of course, Ambassador Daalder is an acolyte of the “rules-based order” and a firm believer in America’s manifest destiny to lead the world. He wrote in his column titled The end of Pax Americana: “I also worry about what this means for the rest of the world. In his first term, Trump made clear he doesn’t buy into Washington’s global leadership role as his predecessors have done. He doesn’t believe in leading — he believes in winning…
“Moscow and Beijing have long chafed at Washington’s leadership, and for the past decade, they’ve sought to counter and undermine it. They may now get their wish. Trump isn’t interested in sustaining the Pax Americana in the ways his 14 predecessors were… The end of the Pax Americana will have profound consequences…The Pax America will officially end on Jan. 20, 2025, when the US inaugurates Donald J. Trump as its 47th president. The country and world will be very different because of it.”
Suffice to say, we are getting a preview of this historic juncture. Although, taking place in the conditions under sanctions, Manturov’s agenda of discussions in Delhi will have a futuristic dimension. The point is, while the sanctions against Russia may take some time to be scrapped, their cutting edge — the fanaticism and the sound and fury with which Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen applied that intrusive diplomatic tool to dictate other countries’ economic and military relations with Russia — may now become blunt, what with all signs already pointing toward a Russian-American engagement.
The Indian side should be mindful of this transition to accelerate the economic and military-technical cooperation with Russia with a medium and long-term term perspective. This is one thing.
Second, we are edging toward a conversation between Trump and Putin. Do not be surprised if they decide to meet at an early date. Historically speaking, there is nothing like summitry to energise political systems with top-down culture as the US and Russia have.
Suffice to say, we are nearing a point when the International Criminal Court which has an arrest warrant against Putin won’t know where to hide itself. From our perspective, that opens the door leading to the rose garden for a state visit by Putin to India — perhaps, as the chief guest at the celebrations marking the 75th anniversary of the Indian Republic on January 26, 2025.
Putin is a great friend of India’s. Only two days ago, he described India as unparalleled in the global arena and went on to say Russia is strengthening its relationship with India on multiple fronts, with a high level of trust underpinning their bilateral ties. Putin paid fulsome praise to India’s rise saying, “India should undoubtedly be added to the list of superpowers, with its billion-and-a-half population, the fastest growth among all economies in the world, ancient culture, and very good prospects for further growth.”
To be sure, India finds itself in a truly privileged position in the international political arena with the consolidation of the Indian-Russian partnership, prospects opening for a spurt to take the US-Indian ties to new heights taking advantage of Trump’s goodwill, and, indeed, the nascent signs of a thaw in the troubled Sino-Indian relationship — and as the fastest growing major economy in the world.
India’s optimal aim should be to create synergy out of all three relationships running on parallel tracks — with Russia, US and China respectively. No matter the complexities of their mutual relationships, India should aspire for a confluence of the three streams for advancing its development.
There is a whiff of hope in the air for a warming of bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington under Trump, which have been in a free fall. But Russophobia is deeply entrenched in the American elites and Russia will remain a toxic issue. Yet, Trump has repeatedly stressed good relations with Putin, as well as mutual respect. And Putin is a very talented politician who understands Trump.
As for Russia-China relationship, Moscow and Beijing are at a high noon of partnership unparalleled in their history. That relationship is anchored in the great camaraderie between Putin and Chinese president Xi Jinping, is rock solid and will remain so despite the fluidity in the international environment.
Of course, there are misgivings about the trajectory of the US-China relationship going forward. But, here again, the crux of the matter is the US’ economic rivalry with China in the American mindset. Per se, China does not hold any threat to the US. And China, unlike Russia, does not challenge American power, influence and interests directly or by design.
A military confrontation between the US and China will not happen under Trump’s watch. Besides, the Indo-Pacific strategy is floundering, the latest sign being Indonesia, the largest country in southeast Asia, turning its back on US-led alliance systems. and seeking BRICS membership.
The presence of Tesla CEO Elon Musk as an influencer in Trump’s inner circle can be seen as a stabilising factor for US-China relations. Above all, only China can be a meaningful interlocutor to help Trump realise the ambitious MAGA project.
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NATO Sanctions and the Coming Global Diesel Fuel Disaster
By F. William Engdahl – New Eastern Outlook – 11.04.2022
Amid the ongoing global inflation crisis, NATO heads of state and mainstream media repeat a mantra that high energy prices are a direct result of Putin’s actions in Ukraine since end of February. The reality is that it is the western sanctions that are responsible. Those sanctions including cutting SWIFT interbank access for key Russian banks and some of the most severe sanctions ever imposed, are hardly having an impact on the military actions in Ukraine. What many overlook is the fact that they are increasingly impacting the economies of the West, especially the EU and USA. A closer look at the state of the global supply of diesel fuel is alarming. But Western sanctions planners at the US Treasury and the EU know fully well what they are doing. And it bodes ill for the world economy.
While most of us rarely think about diesel fuel as anything other than a pollutant, in fact it is essential to the entire world economy in a way few energy sources are. The director general of Fuels Europe, part of the European Petroleum Refiners Association, stated recently, “… there is a clear link between diesel and GDP, because almost everything that goes into and out of a factory goes using diesel.” … continue
Blog Roll
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- Italy to move military personnel from Taif base after missile strike
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- Finland’s Gender Clinic Reversal
- Massachusetts Wants Mental Health Visits, Why Does Government Use ‘Health’ to Enter Our Homes & Families?
- US lawmaker admits American people footing bill for Trump’s failed aggression against Iran
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- Sanctions are collective punishment: immoral and self-defeating
- Phosphorus Munitions Fired by Israel Burn Groves, Orchards in Southern Lebanon
- Israel Carries Out New Ceasefire Violations Across Gaza
- AI – Emphasis on the ‘I’: Israel Is Funding AI Chatbot Propaganda
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- Trump’s militarization of Washington DC as he pursues Israel’s war against Iran
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- Energy Crisis: Germany Enters Heating Season With Historically Low Gas Reserve Fill Levels
- New Study: The Antarctic Ice Sheet Gained Mass From 2020-2024 Due To Staggering Snow And Ice Accumulation
- Study: Ocean Heating Rates From Thousands Of Years Ago ‘Dwarf’ Modern Ocean Heating Rates
- Climate Extremists Target, Attack Large-Scale Power Grid Infrastructure In Germany!
- New Study: Antarctic Ice Melt Has Contributed Less Than 1 Centimeter To Sea Level Rise In The Last 30 Years
