US judge awards pro-regime change journo Shane Bauer $113 million seized from Iran
By Alexander Rubinstein and Max Blumenthal · The Grayzone · January 1, 2025
UPDATE: U.S. District Senior Judge Richard J. Leon has awarded pro-regime change journalist Shane Bauer a whopping $113 million in money seized from Iran by the US sanctions regime.
Together with his ex-wife, Sarah Shourd, and their friend, Joshua Fattal, Bauer sued the Iranian government for millions in damages they claim to have incurred during their two year-long imprisonment in Tehran. The three Americans were arrested by Iranian soldiers near the border of the Kurdistan region of Iraq in 2009. At the time, Bauer was studying in Damascus, Syria on a US Department of Defense-sponsored fellowship. Judge Leon ruled that “Iran is liable for false imprisonment,” and “for intentional infliction of severe emotional distress as to all plaintiffs.”
Leon has awarded Bauer, Fattal, Shourd and their families more than $500 million in seized Iranian state funds which could have been used to purchase medicine, sanitation equipment and food for citizens of the heavily sanctioned nation. As The Grayzone reported below, “Bauer and his ex-wife, Shourd, posed as staunch opponents of US sanctions against Iran and other nations. In 2016, for example, Bauer characterized Hillary Clinton’s call for Iran sanctions as ‘totally irresponsible.’ Shourd, for her part, condemned sanctions against Iran for ‘hitting the poorest of Iranians the hardest.’”
Bauer is currently reporting from Damascus, where the former Al Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has toppled the Syrian government and assumed power – a development he appeared to support. He and his fellow plaintiffs have not commented on the judgment they received against Iran.
Judge Leon’s full decision can be viewed here.
Below, in their initial August 30, 2022 report on Bauer’s lawsuit against Iran, Alexander Rubinstein and Max Blumenthal detail his history of agitation for Western-sponsored regime change operations across the globe, and his record of sordid attacks on The Grayzone, including his promotion of a failed frivolous lawsuit that aimed to destroy this publication.
Over a decade since he rose to prominence as a protagonist in an international drama of espionage and imprisonment, American journalist Shane Bauer and his family filed suit against Iran’s government in a Washington DC-based US District Court, seeking compensation for $10 million in damages resulting from his two year detention in Tehran.
Bauer’s ex-wife Sarah Shourd and their friend, Joshua Fattal, filed simultaneous lawsuits, seeking $10,000 and $10 million respectively.
The trio’s cases were filed in a Washington DC federal court with Judge Richard J. Leon – the same justice who ordered the Iranian government to pay the Washington Post’s Jason Rezaian $180 million in damages for his 18-month detention in the country.
In 2011, an Iranian court sentenced Bauer and Fattal to a total of eight years in prison each after they were convicted of illegally crossing the country’s border and spying for the United States. The two each served a total of two years, while Shourd was granted a compassionate release from Iranian prison after 13 months of detention.
Before his imprisonment, Bauer trekked throughout Africa and the Middle East while working as an English teacher and roaming reporter, racking up an impressive collection of passport stamps. Following his 2011 release, he established himself as a journalist specializing in undercover investigations, working a stint as a senior reporter for Mother Jones magazine in between various freelance gigs.
Bauer simultaneously emerged as a prolific apologist for US-backed regime change operations from Syria to Nicaragua, while justifying the US assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani. A relentless antagonist of anti-interventionist public figures, he has pushed for big tech platforms to censor media personalities that challenged Washington’s regime change agenda.
Bauer has even promoted a failed legal action against The Grayzone by a fellow journalist who had received a large sum of assets seized by the US government from Iran.
In 2018, Bauer’s book of undercover reporting, “American Prison,” which saw him take a job as a prison guard to gain inside access to a private prison, wound up on former President Barack Obama’s “Favorite Books of 2018.”
By the following year, as Bauer’s journalistic output declined, his attacks on anti-war media figures only escalated. Today, many of his most malicious tweets have been scrubbed, he is no longer employed by Mother Jones, and he says he is “working on a book about Americans in the Syrian war.” If Bauer scores a lucrative payout in US federal court, however, he may never need to worry about a freelance fee again.
And if successful, he and his former cellmates will ultimately be paid out with Iranian government assets seized by the United States through its international sanctions regime. In other words, the trio plans to benefit from looted public funds which Tehran could have otherwise used to purchase medicine, food, or fund social programs for its people.
Studies have found that the “Iranian economy and households are affected enormously” by sanctions targeting the country’s oil exports. In one particularly egregious instance of theft, the US government seized an Iranian oil tanker in 2021 and hauled it to Texas, where it sold the stolen crude for $110 million.
Before launching their lawsuits, Bauer and his ex-wife, Shourd, posed as staunch opponents of US sanctions against Iran and other nations. In 2016, for example, Bauer characterized Hillary Clinton’s call for Iran sanctions as “totally irresponsible.” Shourd, for her part, condemned sanctions against Iran for “hitting the poorest of Iranians the hardest.”
Bauer’s sudden bid for millions of dollars seized from the Iranian people by the US government raises new questions about a character whose journalistic career was shrouded in suspicion.
Long before his arrest in Iran, Bauer’s moves throughout Africa and the Middle East tracked closely with US foreign policy initiatives, and were sponsored by a US Department of Defense fellowship for several years.
To top it off, the lawyer Bauer enlisted to secure millions from Iran’s government counts one of Washington’s most infamous spies among her previous clients.
“the lack of coordination on the part of these hikers… indicates an intent to agitate”
The background to Bauer’s lawsuit originates in a July 2009 expedition he, his then-girlfriend Sarah Shourd, and their friend Joshua Fattal took to the Iranian border, where they were subsequently arrested.
The three Bay Area natives and self-described social justice activists insisted that their incursion into Iran was the result of an honest mistake. They claimed to have crossed the border unknowingly during a hiking trip near the Ahmad Awa waterfall in Iraq’s Sulaymaniyah Province, a region which fell under control of US-backed Kurdish militias following the US invasion of 2003.
According to Bauer’s legal complaint, when Iranian border guards arrested him and his companions, “Shane and Mr. Fattal instead became limp, as they would often do when protesting.”
While in Iranian custody, Bauer’s captors discovered photographs on Shourd’s camera showing they had visited Tel Aviv, Israel. The two said they traveled to Israel to visit an American friend, Tristan Anderson, who had been badly wounded and hospitalized by an Israeli teargas canister during a protest against Israel’s apartheid wall.
During Bauer’s trial, an Iranian judge listed each of the entry stamps on his second passport. They included Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan and Israel.
Iran’s government was not the only party that rejected the trio’s excuses for their presence on the border. An Iraqi police officer claimed to the Iranian TV station Al-Alam the hikers were “working with the CIA.”
Meanwhile, a classified 2010 US military report stated that “the lack of coordination on the part of these hikers, particularly after being forewarned [of their proximity to the Iranian border], indicates an intent to agitate and create publicity regarding international policies on Iran.”
While Shourd denounced the US military assessment as “ridiculous,” her and her friends’ visit to the Iranian border came at a precarious time for the country’s government.
Indeed, their arrest occurred just weeks after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a firebrand personality considered hostile to the West, secured reelection by a nearly 30 percent margin. The result sparked massive demonstrations in Tehran and gave way to the so-called “Green Movement,” a sustained protest campaign against Ahmadinejad’s mandate that eventually aided the 2014 electoral victory of Iran’s reformist bloc.
Throughout the summer of 2009, Western media granted the “Green Movement” wall to wall coverage, crediting it with drawing the largest protest crowds since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. In her memoir of captivity, Shourd recounted that during a trip to Sweden, “Stockholm’s sizable expatriate Iranian community protested in solidarity with the uprising in their home country.”
“My brother, Alex, and I documented the anti-Iran rally in Sweden,” she recalled.
Shourd later wrote that while imprisoned in Iran, the Green Movement “made me want to participate in undermining the regime that was causing me and my family so much pain.”
When the story of “Three American Hikers Held Hostage in Iran” emerged in July 2009, their tale was presented as further proof of the embattled government in Tehran’s anti-American sentiment and lack of regard for human rights. Shourd later expressed gratitude to the Iranian government “for using us to further deepen your own crisis of legitimacy around the world and with your own people.”
Their detention also corresponded with the launch of President Barack Obama’s economic assault on Tehran, a strategy which saw Washington levy hefty financial sanctions against Iran’s government in a bid to force it to negotiate limits on its domestic nuclear program.
Bauer’s lawyer represented top US spy jailed in Cuba
Bauer’s lawsuit accused the Iranian government of a slew of crimes against both himself and his family. Notably, it claims Bauer was subjected to torture, assault, and battery while in Iranian custody.
Bauer’s 2014 memoir, “A Sliver of Light,” which he co-authored with Shroud and Fattal, offers a strikingly different narrative, however. In the book, Bauer recalled taunting a prison guard to assault him and acknowledged that Iranian authorities were reluctant to do so.
“If he can’t frighten me, all he can do is hit me, and if he does that, he will be hurting himself,” Bauer explained.
“We are hostages, and hostages are currency, and currency is not to be damaged. Making him beat me is my only way to fight back,” he continued, after saying he repeatedly screamed at the guard: “Hit me!”
While Bauer’s lawsuit appeared to contradict the account offered in his memoir, it is far from an amateurish legal complaint. He and his family are represented by Emily P. Grim, a partner at the elite Gilbert, LLP law firm, which is located just blocks from the US Capitol.
Grim’s biography on Gilbert’s website boasts: “Her clients include Alan Gross, an American jailed in Cuba from 2009 to 2014 for his work on a U.S. Government project to increase Internet access in Cuba’s Jewish community, and Amir Hekmati, a former U.S. Marine imprisoned in Iran from 2011 to 2016 on false charges of espionage.”
Before he became Grim’s most famous client, Alan Gross was arrested by Cuban security officers in 2009. At the time, Gross was working for the United States Agency for International Development, or USAID, a soft power arm of American foreign policy that has overseen countless destabilization plots around the globe. The USAID program that sponsored Gross’ work in Cuba was funded through the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, a US law that explicitly called for regime change in Cuba.
When Cuban authorities apprehended Gross during his fifth trip to the country, they discovered his phone was linked to a SIM card that was distributed exclusively by the Pentagon and the CIA. The USAID employee had previously smuggled large amounts of illicit technology into Cuba, apparently as part of an effort to establish a network of covert internet access points throughout the country.
Amir Hekmati is the second-most notable client of Bauer’s lawyer, Emily Grim. A former marine, Hekmati helped develop a translation system financed by the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Project Agency, or DARPA. Iran jailed Hekmati and sentenced him to death after convicting him on espionage charges. Following the diplomatic breakthrough of the Iran-US nuclear deal, he was released in 2016 as part of a prisoner swap.
Though Hekmati was initially rewarded a $20 million payout of seized Iranian assets, the Department of Justice eventually cut him off when the FBI became suspicious that the American had traveled to Iran to sell classified information about US operations in Afghanistan to the government, and not to visit his grandmother as he claimed.
Despite angry protestations, Grim’s firm has been unsuccessful in persuading the courts to complete her client’s payout.
Gilbert LLP has not responded to multiple emailed requests from The Grayzone regarding Bauer’s lawsuit. Bauer and Shourd have also ignored requests for comment delivered by Twitter and email.
Bauer sponsored by Pentagon grant that mandates “contributing to the national security of the United States”
Shane Bauer has lashed out at anyone who has accused him of having worked with the US government. However, his memoir raised more questions about his relationship with Washington than it has answered.
In one particularly revealing section, Bauer recalled an interrogation he experienced at the hands of an English-speaking Iranian he nicknamed “Weasel.”
“In our other sessions, you listed twenty-four countries that you have been to. Who funded those trips?” Weasel asked Bauer, who was 29 at the time.
“I know what he is getting at,” Bauer recalled, “and it is a legitimate question. If I can’t account for my funds, how can I prove that I am not being funded by the CIA? The problem is, I don’t think my honest answer is that believable.”
Bauer ultimately told Weasel that he saved money while “working as a welder” until he was 19 before traveling “through Europe and the Middle East.”
“Does this asshole believe a word I’m saying?” Bauer recalled wondering.
The line of questioning proceeded with Weasel asking whether the US government paid for any of Bauer’s trips.
“Shit! He knows about the grant…” wrote Bauer. ‘No,’ I say.”
Bauer was referring to the Boren Award, a Department of Defense sponsored grant that covered his Arabic studies in Yemen and Syria. When “Weasel” asked who funded the program, Bauer once again admitted to lying, telling him it was the State Department.
From Bauer’s co-authored account of captivity in Iran, “Sliver of Light”
Boren fellowship recipients are required to pay back their award through governmental service by “contributing to the national security of the United States in the Department of Defense, any element of the intelligence community, the Department of Homeland Security, or the Department of State.”
From the Boren Awards website
In less common instances, Boren recipients are allowed to fulfill their obligations to the US government in other departments. However, the overwhelming majority of grantees do so with the aforementioned agencies. Bauer never specified whether or not he fulfilled his obligation to the fellowship – or how he did it. He did claim, however, that the professor who encouraged him to apply for the grant stated none of their students actually went into government.
Yet when journalist David Ravicher inquired with a Boren representative about the program, he was informed “that 98 percent of its recipients fulfill this requirement and the rest receive deferments. Otherwise, the Treasury Department hunts them down.”
Before stepping into Iran, Bauer winds strange trail through the region
Shane Bauer entered journalism while enrolled at the University of California-Berkeley’s Peace and Conflict Studies program, which he graduated in 2007. It was at UC-Berkley where he met Shourd.
Bauer’s first dabbled in undercover journalism while in Yemen in 2005. At the time, the Houthi movement had just launched its insurgency against the Yemeni government. The civil conflict eventually triggered a brutal and ongoing military intervention by the US, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to crush the Houthi advance.
According to the UC-Berkeley Alumni Association’s newsletter, Bauer was employed in Yemen by “a pro-government, English-language paper.” While the Alumni Association did not say which paper that was, Bauer earned a byline in 2005 from the Yemen Observer, a paper founded by the longtime press secretary to then-President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Bauer eventually “decided to sneak into a city occupied by Houthi rebels which no Western journalist had visited,” the newsletter wrote. While disguised in local garb, Bauer and a British pal were detained by local authorities in the city of Saada and released a day later.
Bauer also spent two summers in the Darfur region of Sudan while enrolled at UC-Berkeley. At the time, between 2006-07, Darfur-based rebel groups from the Sudanese Liberation Army, or SLA, were facing international pressure to enact a peace deal with Sudanese President Omar Bashir, who was labeled a state sponsor of terror by the US.
In 2007, Bauer managed to score an interview with the vice intelligence director for SLA General Secretary Minni Minnawi, who had signed the deal. According to the Institute for International and Strategic Relations, a French think tank, Minnawi had been backed by the CIA as the only rebel faction leader to ink the agreement with Khartoum. He was later flown to Washington to meet with President George W. Bush. Today, he serves as the governor of Darfur while his forces fight in Libya under the command of Khalifa Haftar, another former CIA asset.
SLA General Secretary Minni Arko Minnawi and President George W. Bush
In his memoir of captivity in Iran, Bauer wrote that his interrogator demanded to know how he entered Sudan in 2007. The inquiry caused Bauer to worry that Iran may have been aware of his “history of government funding and my history of illegally crossing borders,” he recalled. Bauer told his interrogator that he “entered [Sudan] as a guest of the Sudanese Liberation Army.”
Not long after his jaunt into Darfur, Bauer arrived in Damascus, Syria with his then-girlfriend, Shourd, for several months. At the time, Washington was cultivating opposition to the government of President Bashar al-Assad through civil society networks around the country.
Bauer and Shourd said they studied Arabic at Damascus University, taught English to Iraqi refugees, and used the country as a base for reporting around the region. (On her personal webpage, Shourd says, “In 2007, I moved to Damascus, Syria…” In an interview with the Pulitzer Center, however, she states, “In 2008, I moved to Damascus, Syria…”)
A confidential November 2008 cable by Maura Connelly, then the Charges D’Affaires for the US Embassy in Damascus, identified English teachers and visiting Fulbright scholars in Syria as important cogs in US “public diplomacy” efforts against the government of President Bashar al-Assad.
The US embassy’s “English Language Fellow (ELF) for 2008-2009 remains in country and is using her numerous contacts among Syrian English teachers to conduct training in Damascus and country-wide,” Connelly noted.
Bauer and Shourd’s teacher in Damascus, Majid Rafizadeh, happened to have been on a Fulbright scholarship at the time. A Syrian-Iranian academic, Rafidzadeh has since emerged as a fervent supporter of Iranian regime change who has supplied testimony to Congress advancing the interventionist goals of hardline neoconservatives.
Bauer later reflected “how, back in 2009, my Syrian friends would fantasize about being rid of the dictator and his secret police, but no one could have imagined that the Arab Spring would come two years later.”
Bauer escalates online attacks, enters Syria under US occupation
Years after the so-called Arab Spring swept through the region like a hurricane, leaving unimaginable ruin in its wake, Bauer was still pumping out online attacks against prominent critics of US meddling.
By 2019, his attacks on opponents of the US-backed dirty war on Syria had grown so unhinged, his detractors began to taunt him with the refrain: “Take a hike.”
Bauer also took aim at former US Rep. Tulsi Gabbard for daring to criticize the US military occupation of northeastern Syria, insisting it was a noble anti-terrorist mission. In fact, Dana Stroul, a senior Biden Department of Defense official, has openly stated that the US military “owns” the “resource rich” region of Syria in order to exploit its wealth and starve Damascus into capitulating to the West’s agenda.
At the time, Bauer had recently returned from a visit to the US-occupied northeastern region of Syria for a series of field reports lamenting Washington’s refusal to remove Assad by force. Published in the May/June 2019 issue of Mother Jones, the series opened with a quote by a Kurdish border guard practically begging the US to plunder Syria’s natural wealth: “We have oil, so much oil. Let them stay and take the oil.”
Careful readers may be wondering whether Bauer entered the country legally or not. In fact, Syria’s government denied Bauer’s visa, prompting him to “sneak in” through the border controlled by the US military and its Kurdish allies.
Since Bauer’s reports from US-occupied Syria in 2019, he has produced only one article: a profile of a rogue local US police force for The New Yorker. That was nearly two years ago.
With no known sources of income apart from his two published books and the one apparently on the way, Bauer turned to the US government and the funds it seized from the Iranian people for a massive payday.
View the initial legal complaint, Shane Bauer v. the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, here.
Imperial hubris (and its consequences) in Syria
By Alastair Crooke | Strategic Culture Foundation | January 1, 2025
The Syria story, it seems, is not so simple as ‘President Assad fell’ and the ‘technocratic Salafists’ rose to power.
At one level, the collapse was predictable. Assad was known to have been influenced by Egypt and UAE for some years past. They had been urging him to break with Iran and Russia, and to shift to the West. For some 3-4 years he had been incrementally signalling and implementing such a move. Iran especially faced increasing obstacles over operational matters in which they were co-operating with Syrian forces. His shift was meant as a message to Iran.
The financial situation of Syria – after years of U.S. Caesar sanctions, plus the loss of all agricultural and energy revenues seized by the U.S. in occupied north-east Syria – was catastrophic. Syria simply had no economy.
No doubt, reaching out to Israel and Washington was presented to Assad as the only practical exit to his dilemma. ‘Normalisation’ could lead to the lifting of sanctions, they implored him. And Assad, according to those in touch with him, (even at the eleventh hour before the HTS ‘invasion’) was believing that Arab States close to Washington would have opted for his continued leadership, rather than see Syria fall prey to Salafist zealots.
To be clear: Moscow and Tehran had warned Assad that his army (as a whole) was too fragile, too underpaid, and too penetrated and bribed by foreign intelligence services, to be expected to defend the state effectively. Assad also was warned repeatedly about the threat from Idlib jihadists planning to take Aleppo, but the President not only ignored the warnings – he rebutted them.
He was offered a very large external military force not once, but twice, even in ‘the last days’, as Jolani’s militia were advancing. Assad refused. “We are strong”, he told an interlocutor on the first occasion; yet shortly afterwards, on a second occasion, he admitted: “My army is running away”.
Assad was not abandoned by his allies. It was by then too late. He had flip-flopped once too often. Two of the principal actors (Russia and Iran) were frustrated and rendered unable to help – absent Assad’s consent.
A Syrian who knew the Assad family, and who spoke with the President at some length just prior the Aleppo invasion, had found him surprisingly sanguine and unflustered – assuring his friend that there were forces enough (2,500) in Aleppo to deal with Jolani’s threats, and hinting that President Sissi might be ready to step in with aid for Syria. (Egypt of course feared Muslim Brotherhood Islamists taking power in a former secular Ba’athist state).
Ibrahim Al-Amine, editor of Al-Akhbar, noted a similar perception by Assad:
“Assad seemed to have become more confident that Abu Dhabi was capable of resolving his problem with the Americans and some Europeans, and he heard a lot about economic temptations if he agreed to the strategy of exiting the alliance with the resistance forces. One of Assad’s workers, who stayed with him until the last hours before he left Damascus, says that the man was still hoping for something big to happen to stop the armed factions’ attack. He believed that “the Arab and international community” would prefer that he remain in power, rather than Islamists take over the administration of Syria”.
Yet, even as the Jolani forces were on the M5 highway linking to Damascus, the wider Assad family and key officials were making no efforts to prepare for a departure, or to warn close friends to think about such contingencies, the interlocutor said. Even as Assad was heading to Hmeimin en route to Moscow, no advice to ‘get out’ was sent to friends.
The latter said that they did not know after Assad’s silent departure to Moscow who exactly, or when, ordered the Syria army to stand down and to prepare for transition.
Assad briefly visited Moscow on 28 November – a day after the HTS attacks in Aleppo province and their swift advance south (and a day after the ceasefire in Lebanon). The Russian authorities have said nothing about the content of the President’s meetings in Moscow, and the Assad family said that the President had returned tight-lipped from Russia, too.
Subsequently, Assad departed finally to Moscow (either on 7 December, after despatching a private plane on multiple flights to Dubai, or on 8 December) – again telling virtually nobody in his immediate and family circle that he was departing for good.
What caused this out-of-character mindset? No one knows; but family members have speculated that Bashar Al-Assad had been seriously disorientated emotionally by the grave illness of his wife, Asma, to whom he is devoted.
Put frankly, whilst the three main players could see clearly the direction events were heading (the fragility of the state was no surprise), nevertheless, Assad’s denial mindset and the consequent speed of the military dénouement was the surprise. That was the true ‘black swan’.
What triggered events? Erdogan has for several years demanded that Assad firstly negotiate with the ‘legitimate Syrian opposition’; secondly that he re-draft the Constitution; and thirdly that he meet face-to-face with President Erdogan (something Assad consistently refused to do). All three powers pressed Assad to negotiate with the ‘opposition’, but he would not, and nor would he meet with Erdogan. (Both loathe each other). Frustration on these counts was high.
Erdogan now indisputably ‘owns’ ‘former-Syria’. Ottoman irredentist sentiment is ecstatic and demanding more Turkish revanchism. Others – the more secular city dwellers of Turkey however – are less enthused by the display of Turkish religious nationalism.
Erdogan however, may well be (or may soon be) experiencing buyer’s remorse: Yes, Turkey stands tall as Syria’s new landlord, but he is now ‘the responsible’ party for what happens next. (HTS is plainly exposed as a Turkish proxy). Minorities are being killed; brutal sectarian executions are accelerating; sectarianism becoming more extreme. There is still no Syrian economy in sight; no revenues, and no fuel for the gasoline refinery (previously supplied by Iran).
Erdogan’s espousal of a re-branded and westernised al-Qaeda always risked proving to be paper-thin (as the sectarian killings are cruelly demonstrating). Will Jolani manage to impose his al-Qaeda-in-a suit makeover across his heterodox followers? Abu Ali al-Anbari, al-Baghdadi’s top aide at the time (2012-2013), gave this scathing appraisal of Jolani:
“He is a cunning person; two-faced; adores himself; does not care about his soldiers; is willing to sacrifice their blood in order to make a name for himself in the media – glows when he hears his name mentioned on satellite channels”.
In any event, one clear outcome is that Erdogan’s ploy has re-ignited formerly (and mostly) quiescent Sunni sectarianism and Ottoman imperialism. The consequences will be many and will ripple across the region. Egypt is already anxious – as is King Abdullah in Jordan.
Many Israelis see themselves as the ‘winners’ from the Syrian up-ending – since the Axis of Resistance supply line has been severed at its middle. Israeli security chief Ronan Bar was most likely briefed by Ibrahim Kalin, Turkish Head of Intelligence, when they met in Istanbul on 19 November on the expected Idlib invasion – in time for Israel to institute the Lebanon ceasefire, and to obstruct the passage of Hizbullah forces into Syria (Israel immediately bombed all the border crossings between Lebanon and Syria).
Nonetheless Israelis may discover that a re-kindled Salafist zealotry is not their friend – nor ultimately to their benefit.
Iran will sign the long-awaited defence accord with Russia on 17 January 2025.
Russia will concentrate on the war in Ukraine and stay aloof from the Middle East quagmire – to focus on the slow global restructuring that has been happening, and on the Big Picture attempt to have Trump in due course come to acknowledge Asian ‘Heartland’ and BRICS security interests, and to agree on some frontier to the Rimland (Atlanticist) security sphere, such that cooperation on issues of global strategic stability and European security can be agreed.
(Part One of this piece can be viewed on Conflicts Forum’s Substack).
Abductions, extra-judicial killings surge in Syria under HTS rule: Report
Press TV – January 1, 2025
A new report says violence has surged in Syria under the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rule, with approximately 400 kidnappings and extra-judicial killings since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s government in early December.
Sputnik news agency, citing medical sources, reported on Tuesday that most of the victims who were abducted or killed across Syria were members of the Alawite minority religious group, as acts of revenge continue in the Arab country.
The news agency, citing local sources, also noted that six civilians were kidnapped by unknown gunmen in the Abbasiya neighborhood of the city of Homs on Monday.
“Their bodies were found after they were executed by firing squad” on the outskirts of the city, it said, adding that “five of them were from the same family.”
The sources further stated that the bodies of three people who were abducted by an armed group two weeks ago were found in the coastal city of Jableh.
The fate of four young men who were also kidnapped by masked gunmen riding two four-wheel drive vehicles in Homs is also unknown, the sources added.
According to Sputnik, a further 15 people have also been kidnapped in the western port city of Latakia in the past 48 hours.
The so-called Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) also reported that the HTS militant group has carried out a raid in the town of Ras al-Ma’arra in the Damascus countryside, killing its mayor, and arresting 30 people.
On December 8, militants, led by the HTS, took control of Damascus and declared an end to President Bashar al-Assad’s rule in a surprise offensive that was launched from their stronghold in northwestern Syria, reaching the capital in less than two weeks.
The HTS has repeatedly claimed it would respect the rights of all sects and religions in Syria.
The situation, however, remains very fragile, with a potential risk of further clashes as sectarian sentiments continue to boil over, amid the ongoing political instability and pressure on minority groups.
Over 750 people killed in Syria throughout 2024: Report
Separately on Monday, the UK-based SOHR reported that Daesh terrorists had killed around 753 people during 491 recorded operations in Syria throughout 2024.
The report stated that Daesh continues “executing almost-daily military operations and counter-attacks” in areas controlled by the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), while the terrorist group’s cells “are still able to exploit opportunities to create a security vacuum and carry out assassinations.”
This clearly indicates that the Daesh Takfiri terrorist group “is still alive and kicking,” it added.
According to the report, these operations included ambushes, armed attacks, and bombing which were concentrated in the northern cities of Aleppo, Hama, Raqqa, the central city of Homs and the eastern province of Dayr al-Zawr, where a total of 646 people were killed.
It further noted that at least 78 of those killed were civilians, including women and children, while 568 were members of defected Syrian Arab Army (SAA).
Furthermore, another 107 people were killed in areas controlled by the Kurdish-led SDF in Dayr al-Zawr, Hasakah, Aleppo, and Raqqah, the report said.
This comes as concerns are growing over the fate of 10,000 Daesh terrorists imprisoned by the SDF in northeast Syria as the terrorist group continues to revitalize its forces.
The HTS leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has not commented on the crisis since seizing power in December.
Syria has been gripped by foreign-sponsored militancy since March 2011.
The former Damascus government blamed Western states and their regional allies for aiding terrorist groups to wreak havoc in the Arab country.
More than Dozen Martyred in Israeli Strike on Syria’s Adra
Al-Manar | December 30, 2024
At least ten people were martyred on Sunday in an Israeli strike on Syria’s Adra Industrial City in rural Damascus, Syrian and Arab media reported.
Reports said there was an explosion in the city of Adra, on the eastern outskirts of the capital.
An Israeli drone had reportedly fired two missiles at a building in the vicinity Adra industrial zone.
Arab media outlets reported that 11 people were killed, while other reports put the death toll at 17, with a number of others being injured.
A video shared on social media showed the aftermath of the attack. The video showed a building reduced to rubble with several bodies scattered among the debris.
The Zionist entity has been taking advantage of the former Syrian regime’s fall earlier this month, with the occupation military launching hundreds of strikes in the last weeks on several areas across the Arab country, and seizing positions including the summit of a mountain with an uninterrupted sightline to the capital Damascus.
Syria’s new leadership receives Ukrainian FM in Damascus
The Cradle | December 30, 2024
Syria’s de facto ruler Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known as former Al-Qaeda chief Abu Mohammad al-Julani, and the country’s new Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani hosted Ukraine’s top diplomat in the capital, Damascus, on 30 December.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha arrived in the capital at the head of a high-level delegation, which included President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s special envoy.
“We seek to cooperate with the new Syrian administration in several areas. We share with Syria the suffering from unjust regimes,” Sybiha was quoted as saying. “We are ready to help Syria in collecting evidence and investigating the crimes of the former regime and Russia.”
“Russia and Assad regime are partners in committing atrocities in Syria. We believe that relations between our two countries will witness great development,” he added.
The foreign minister went on to say, “If you can expel the Russians from your lands, you will ensure your security and the security of neighboring countries.”
Shaybani said during the meeting that his country is “turning the page” on the era of the former government of Bashar al-Assad, stressing that there will be a “strategic partnership” between Damascus and Kiev.
Sharaa’s organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as the Nusra Front (Al-Qaeda’s offshoot in Syria), appointed a transitional authority following the collapse of the Syrian army and the fall of Damascus on 8 December after an 11-day shock offensive that took the region by surprise.
Over the past few years, Ukraine has provided crucial support to HTS and other extremist factions under its command – who were based in Syria’s northern Idlib governorate before the assault that ended the Assad government.
HTS militants and fighters from ISIS and other extremist groups have also been deployed in Ukraine to fight Russian forces.
Before the launch of the offensive on 27 November, Ukrainian drone experts had been training and equipping extremist militants in Idlib.
The Russian military intervened in Syria in 2015 in support of Assad’s government, helping the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) turn the tide against several groups who had taken over large swathes of the country – including the Nusra Front, which became HTS.
Moscow and the former Al-Qaeda branch have established a line of contact since Assad’s government fell in early December.
“Russia is an important country and is considered the second most powerful country in the world. There are deep strategic interests between Russia and Syria. All Syrian weapons are Russian, and many power stations are run by Russian expertise,” Sharaa said on 29 December. “We do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way some people would like.”
Russia has said that the future of its presence in Syria will depend on the outcome of talks with the country’s new authorities following the transitional period.
Syria’s terrorist rulers committing ethnic cleansing in Christian town: Rights group
Press TV – December 29, 2024
A rights advocacy organization says Christians have been threatened by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militant group to evacuate the southwestern Syrian town of Maaloula, in what has been decried as an act of ethnic cleansing.
“Syrian Christians in the ancient Christian town of Maaloula, Syria, are being threatened to leave the town by the AlQaeda/ISIS terrorists that have taken over Syria,” the Iraqi Christian Foundation said in a post on X on Sunday.
“An ethnic cleansing is happening in this ancient Christian town where Aramaic is still spoken. Pray for the Christians of Syria,” the rights organization added.
The mission of the Iraqi Christian Foundation is to advocate for the human, legal, and political rights of Iraqi Christians and other Christians across the West Asia region.
The organization also provides humanitarian aid to Iraqi and Syrian Christian genocide victims.
Other rights activists earlier warned about the lack of Internet access or communication and the unfolding of a massacre in Maaloula, the last town in Syria where Aramaic — Jesus Christ’s language — is still spoken.
The HTS administration, which led the onslaught that toppled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his government earlier this month, has repeatedly claimed to respect the beliefs and rights of all sects and religions in Syria.
Tens of thousands took to the streets in Latakia, Tartus, Homs, Hama, and Qardaha in condemnation of the militants’ desecration of an Alawite shrine in Aleppo last week, but the HTS violently attacked them, leading to deadly confrontations.
The HTS is among the militant organizations that have taken on Syria over the past dozen years with massively deadly and devastating effects on the country’s people.
Since March 2011, Syria has been gripped by a campaign of militancy and destruction sponsored by the US and its allies.
Fabricated: Video showing release of women from Sednaya jail in Syria
Press TV – December 28, 2024
A new investigation has revealed that a viral video showing women and children allegedly being released from Syria’s Sednaya prison after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad was fabricated.
In a post on X on Saturday, the Syrian fact-checking group Verify-Sy said the circulated footage, videos, and images documenting the moment women and girls were allegedly released were filmed at the “Dafa” organization, a children’s charity located in the Kafr Sousa neighborhood south of Damascus, and not Sednaya jail.
Verify-Sy went on to say that its extensive probe revealed that the claim is false, adding that the viral video conceals various details, including a suspected case of theft and vandalism, which need to be investigated by the relevant authorities.
The video footage circulating on social media platforms such as Facebook, X, and TikTok, along with several Arabic and international media outlets, such as Syria TV and Al Arabiya, showed a man ordering a group of girls and women to return to their homes, while a woman says, “These girls are in my charge,” which raises doubts about the real location.
Meanwhile, Fidaa Daqouri, Chairwoman of the Dafa Organization has clarified to Verify-Sy that on the night of the Assad government’s fall, the organization was attacked by a group of armed civilians, who identified themselves as “rebels.”
She also said the attackers stole buses belonging to the organization, as well as batteries, and forced everyone present to leave the building, adding that they also raided a juvenile detention center on the same street and some nearby institutes.
Daqouri also called on Syria’s de facto new ruler to investigate the incident and hold those who attacked the center accountable, while denouncing as “unacceptable” the misleading spread of this video by media outlets, falsely identifying the location as Sednaya prison.
In order to verify the videos, images, and stories, the Verify-Sy team contacted Diab Sarya, co-founder and director of the Sednaya Prison Detainees Association. He confirmed that Sednaya is “a military prison designated for holding men only.”
He said all circulated stories about secret prisons, hidden floors, or coded doors are fabricated and have no basis in reality.
Militants, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), took control of Damascus on December 8 and declared an end to Assad’s rule in a surprise offensive that was launched from their stronghold in northwestern Syria, reaching the capital in less than two weeks.
Since then, a wave of propaganda surrounding the prisoners in Sednaya Prison has proliferated across the internet.
Iraq’s Sudani walks a tightrope after Syria’s fall
By Khalil Harb | The Cradle | December 27, 2024
In the aftermath of significant strategic setbacks for West Asia’s Axis of Resistance, Iraq has emerged as the focal point of an escalating regional crisis. But for many Iraqis, the scale of the brewing storm has not been immediately apparent.
The trajectory has been unmistakable: from the assassination of Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September, to Israel’s ominous “threat message” to Iraq on 18 November, culminating in the fall of the Syrian government and its far-reaching repercussions.
The challenges Iraq faces today extend far beyond its borders. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is proceeding with extreme caution, akin to crossing an active minefield. His administration is weighed down by internal pressures, security threats, and regional dynamics while also contending with foreign demands, including resisting calls from the US and its allies to dismantle the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) – the Iraqi military backbone in the fight against ISIS.
These forces are seen as a key pillar of Iraq’s security architecture and a counterweight to Iranian influence in the region, despite the support some of the factions within the PMU umbrella receive from Tehran.
Dr Hussein al-Moussawi, a senior media official with the PMU’s Al-Nujaba Movement, tells The Cradle that both the Shia religious authority and Iraqi people “did not and will not accept any compromise on the dissolution of the Popular Mobilization Units,” accusing the US “occupation” of trying to extend its presence in Iraq, which “[they] will not accept.”
Baghdad’s regional role
An Iraqi government source also reveals to The Cradle that Iraq shares its deepening concerns with neighbors such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, and Egypt. Following the upheaval in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, many Iraqis fear their country might be next in the chain of regional destabilization.
According to the source, Washington conveyed a message to Tehran through Swiss intermediaries, warning of a major strike – potentially targeting a nuclear facility – in early 2025.
Meanwhile, a UN official based in Paris shared with The Cradle that the Axis of Resistance underestimated the scale of the current offensive against the region, failing to comprehensively initiate the Unity of Fronts strategy.
Initially viewed as a reckless Israeli gambit, the attacks on Gaza and Lebanon have since revealed themselves as being part of a broader, opportunistic, western-backed strategy to reshape the balance of power in West Asia.
In Iraq, the signs of heightened tension are visible everywhere. Along the 600-kilometer border with Syria, the Iraqi army and PMU maintain a vigilant presence, deploying armored brigades, thermal cameras, and watchtowers to prevent a repeat of the 2014 ISIS invasion.
A PMU leader confirms to The Cradle that its leadership decided early on that it would not cross the border to support Syrian forces – first, because the Syrian army itself was not deployed for the fight, and second, because then-president Bashar al-Assad had restricted the activities of allied forces in recent years. Those restrictions increased as the Gaza war escalated and as Assad began to mortgage his country’s fate to both the Russians and his newfound Gulf state relationships.
The vigilant Iraqi presence on the Syrian border is matched with Baghdad’s close monitoring of Turkiye’s force build-up in the Suruj area near Kobani (Ain al-Arab) accompanied by tanks and heavy artillery. They are also watching the incursion of Israeli forces into Syria’s Quneitra governorate, descending from the Golan Heights to reach the Yarmouk Basin in Deraa governorate, along the opposite side of Rashaya, Hasbaya, and the Lebanese western Bekaa, toward the Masnaa Crossing – the only currently operating border crossing between Syria and Lebanon.
Compounding this are revelations that the actual number of US troops in Iraq and Syria is significantly higher than previously disclosed, with thousands stationed in the region to counter Iranian influence and provide logistical support to their Kurdish allies. Worse yet are the unconfirmed leaks that Sudani is not only prepared to accept the extension of US troops’ presence in Iraq beyond the 2026 withdrawal deadline, but may also allow Americans to enhance their Iraq–Syria border monitoring missions.
While the Pentagon officially reported a total of 3,400 US soldiers in the two countries – 900 in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq – it now states the figure is at least 4,500, with 2,000 soldiers in Syria as a rear operations base to support US forces in Iraq.
Sudani’s defensive diplomacy
Sudani’s recent diplomatic maneuvers underline the gravity of the situation. An informed Iraqi source discloses to The Cradle that following the Israeli threat, Sudani convened leaders from Iraq’s Coordination Framework and the State Administration Coalition to discuss potential responses.
The same source adds that US intermediaries later delivered a second Israeli message, listing targets that might be struck if drone attacks launched from Iraq were not halted. Although opinions within Iraq’s political and security circles diverged, the PMU leadership leaned toward de-escalation, prioritizing Iraq’s stability.
Despite this, Iraqi resistance factions have carried out several operations, often aligning with attacks by Yemen’s Ansarallah-aligned armed forces. These acts of defiance, however, have not deterred Baghdad from seeking a delicate balance.
For instance, the Iraqi government has resisted Iranian requests to transit forces through Iraq to Syria, citing the risks of further destabilization. According to sources close to the PMU, this approach reflects a calculated effort to shield Iraq from the spiraling Syrian crisis and preserve its fragile sovereignty.
As one Iraqi politician close to the resistance factions explains to The Cradle:
“Sudani’s performance is good, and the Iraqi opinion is present in the decision, and we are trying to spare Iraq the repercussions of what is happening in Syria. We certainly do not want the same fate, and Iraq is strong. We are with the government in all its decisions because they are in the interest of Iraq, and we have authorized it to take what steps are necessary. We are following Sudani’s movements, and we see that Iraq has begun to regain its regional health, and has become present in the region, and we support him in this.”
On 11 December, Sudani landed in Amman to meet with Jordan’s King Abdullah II, one of the most apprehensive Arab leaders regarding the situation in Syria. Shortly after, he traveled to the Al-Mualla resort to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
By 13 December, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unannounced visit to Iraq, emphasizing US priorities in controlling Iraq’s borders with Syria and preventing the continued flow of Iranian arms to Lebanon. This flurry of diplomacy illustrates Iraq’s central role in regional and foreign security calculations.
PMU as a ‘wall of defense’
Sudani’s diplomatic outreach extended beyond these high-profile meetings. According to an Iraqi source, before the opposition’s attack on Syria escalated, the Iraqi prime minister dispatched PMU head Faleh al-Fayyadh to Ankara and Damascus to mediate between the two sides. However, this effort failed, leaving Sudani with no leverage to pacify armed factions or mitigate potential Iranian pressure.
An Iraqi government source denies any formal assurances or threats from the US regarding Syria but confirms to The Cradle that prior warnings had been issued to resistance leaders. For example, Qais Khazali, the Secretary-General of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, has reportedly relocated to Iran as a precaution.
But other sources say that Sudani’s government did receive US warnings for Iraqi forces to stay out of the Syrian battle in support of the former Assad government, a position that was ultimately supported by Iraq’s main political forces and blocs, including maverick Sadrist Movement leader Muqtada al-Sadr.
However, this support will have its limits and red lines; one of these is the PMU, and the other is the US occupation. Al-Nujaba’s Moussawi emphasizes that the PMU, alongside other Iraqi forces, remains an essential bulwark against both internal and external threats and rejects any compromise on the PMU’s existence, describing it as a “wall of defense” for Iraq amid escalating regional tensions.
Moussawi also reiterates Iraq’s continued support for the Palestinian cause and accuses the US of prolonging its occupation under dubious pretexts. He warns that Iraqis, particularly the resistance factions, are fully aware of these tactics and remain resolute in opposing any foreign military presence:
“The resistance remains stronger than ever and will adapt to the evolving challenges to defend Iraq’s sovereignty and interests.”
The stakes for Iraq could not be higher. For Sudani, the mission is not just to shield Iraq from the chaos engulfing its neighbors but also to establish it as a stabilizing force in an increasingly turbulent region. Achieving this will demand diplomacy and resilient leadership, as well as an unyielding defense of Iraq’s sovereignty against relentless geopolitical pressures and the unquenchable ambitions of the expansionist, US-backed Israelis – a task in which the continued existence of the PMU remains non-negotiable.
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service: US, UK special forces directing attacks on bases in Syria
Press TV – December 28, 2024
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) says US and British special services are plotting a series of terrorist attacks on Russian military bases in Syria, following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad’s government by militant groups earlier this month.
“British intelligence agencies are working out plots to stage a string of terrorist attacks against Russian military installations in Syria. The schemes seek the recruitment of Daesh Takfiri terrorists, who new authorities in Damascus have set free in the aftermath of Assad’s downfall,” the press office of the SVR said in a statement on Saturday.
The statement noted that the outgoing administration of US President Joe Biden, and the British leadership intend to prevent the establishment of stability and security across Syria.
“In a broader sense, they are pursuing the goal of maintaining a state of chaos” in West Asia,” the press office stated.
The SVR highlighted that the US and Britain seek to maintain their dominance and achieve their geopolitical objectives in the region “based on the odious concept of a rules-based order.”
“However, the fiendish plot is challenged by the presence of Russian forces on the Mediterranean coast of Syria, which still majorly contributes to the preservation of regional stability,” the Russian intelligence agency said.
The statement also indicated that the United States plans to continue the occupation of Syria’s oil-rich regions east of the Euphrates River under the pretext of fighting Daesh terrorists, emphasizing that Washington has no intention of withdrawing from those areas.
Back on December 13, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said Moscow had established direct contacts with the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in a bid to maintain its military bases in the Arab country despite the fall of the Syrian government.
Russia hopes to keep its military bases in Syria as they are important in the fight against terrorism, Interfax news agency quoted Bogdanov as saying.
The senior Russian diplomat noted that contacts with HTS were “proceeding in a constructive fashion.”
Bogdanov said Russia hopes the group will fulfill its pledges to “guard against all excesses,” maintain order, and ensure the safety of diplomats and other foreigners.
In America It’s Another Week to be Proud of!
By Philip Giraldi • Unz Review • December 26, 2024
Something good happened in Washington last week, suggesting that the year might actually end on a high note without Joe Biden starting World War 3 and opening up all the country’s prisons for the on-the-street rehabilitation of the inmates where they will undoubtedly learn new skills. The good thing was the signing by Biden of a bill, perhaps with a little bit of help from his friends to make sure he spelled his name correctly, to make the Bald Eagle the official bird of the United States of America. The Eagle has been around the American Republic virtually since its foundation, appearing on the Great Seal and on various documents and even on currency, but it has never been officially dubbed the national bird.
All honor of place is due to the great bald eagle, but one might recall that Benjamin Franklin once suggested that the best choice for the national bird would be the wild turkey. And Biden still has time for mischief, including possibly ennobling turkeys or even the issuance of a pardon to himself for ignoring the United States Constitution for four years. And Joe might well choose to go preemptive by pardoning Hillary Clinton for all those classified emails and other documents that somehow disappeared from her home and office ten years ago. But apart from that, it is somehow reassuring to be able to keep repeating “only three more weeks of Biden and Harris” even though the potential for more damage to the Bill of Rights remains enormous.
Joe is well remembered for his open borders invitation which has produced huge crowds of happy American voters who were clearly not delighted to share the burden of millions of uneducated and unskilled foreigners who have demonstrated their ability to burn to death women sleeping on subway trains in New York City just to see what a flaming human body looks like. Oh, and the new Americans have to be housed and fed by the existing population as the process grinds on, but that is what the Democrats running nearly all the major US cities have come to expect from a cowed population that now understands that opposing government policies puts one on the FBI enemies list.
Joe and his stalwart band of liars have also connived in pulling together two wars in which the United States had no actual interest, arming and funding both Ukraine and Israel. Israel has said thank you by adroitly engaging in genocide against the Palestinian people while Kiev is somewhat clumsily occupied in trying to draw the US and NATO into open warfare against Russia, which would become a nuclear World War 3, so there is still time Joe! And then there is the new war going on in Syria where the US armed and trained militias are fighting similarly armed and trained militias controlled by the Turks, who are poised to divide what once was a place called Syria with the Israelis. The Zionists have for many years been planning to exterminate Lebanese and Syrians as well as Palestinians to create a Greater Israel.
But Joe and his buddies apparently are not satisfied with having started two wars when there are so many other places that need a stern dose of the old “rules based international order” to get their houses in order. China is number one on the list as it is outperforming the United States and the Europeans economically. And one can always use the excuse that it is threatening good old Taiwan to crank up a shooting war. And then there is Iran, everyone’s favorite when it comes to “who is next on the list?” Israel has eliminated Hezbollah and Syria, with US connivance and approval, to open the door to destroying the Iranian non-existent nuclear weapons program. Both Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been openly discussing that option as it would mean bombing Iran’s military bases as well as its technical research facilities. Donald Trump has been involved in similar discussions with Netanyahu.
How the attacks on Iran might play out is interesting to contemplate and might follow something like the model of what happed to Syria. Recent reports indicate that something unexpected took place during an Israeli bombing attack directed against a Syrian strategic military site located near the city of Tartus. Israel has been bombing Syria constantly since the government of Bashar al-Assad fell and it has particularly targeted any sites or weapons warehouses that the new government can use to defend itself or establish its territorial integrity. The bombing in question used what many suspect to be a tactical nuclear weapon in an effort to completely obliviate the Syrian military installation that houses scud surface-to-surface missiles among other high-level ordnance. A huge explosion was noted on seismographs located five hundred miles away, as far as Iznik in Turkey. The blast might have been caused by the detonation of the many weapons stored in the facility, but the suspicion grows that Israel, protected as always by Washington even when it commits mass murder or defies international conventions on banned weapons, continues to believe that it can do and get away with anything.
Even if Biden does not open any new doors to further deploy the US military, there is considerable danger that he will succeed in locking new President Donald Trump in the conflicts currently going on. Trump is not averse to using force when it is what he considers the best option. He has lately said some ridiculous things, arguing that the United States considers the “ownership and control of Greenland” to be an “absolute necessity” for maintaining American “national security” and “freedom throughout the world.” This has naturally riled the people who actually live in Greenland who now are wondering how they are blocking freedom globally.
The statement on Greenland came after Trump in a conversation at Mar-a-Lago demoted Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada by giving him the title of “Governor”, calling Canada the 51st State of the United States “union,” which would “save on taxes and military protection.” Trump also has threatened to take over the Panama Canal and tweeted “we’ll see about that!” in response to the President of Panama’s declaration that every inch of the Panama Canal belongs to Panama. Trump then posted up a graphic on his website featuring “Welcome to the United States Canal!” above a picture of the American flag flying over a lock in the Panama Canal. Trump has also allegedly privately considered invading Mexico in order to combat the drug cartels on the US border and using American soldiers to block illegal immigrants seeking to cross.
Trump’s ignorance over who is doing what in the Middle East is astonishing but largely derives from his own personal and family attachment to Zionism and more particularly to his reliance on billionaire Jewish donors. The serial appointments of pro-Israel nominees to the key cabinet posts where decisions impacting Israel will be made for the next four years both will shape policy and guarantee that Trump stays on track with Israel, just as Joe Biden did when surrounded by his own Jewish neocons. Trump has already vowed that there will be “hell to pay” in the Middle East if the remaining Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip are not released by his January 20th inauguration.
Likewise, Israeli government officials, including Netanyahu, cannot wait for current Secretary of State Antony Blinken to be replaced by Florida congressman Marco Rubio. Blinken has been a complete tool of Israel but he projects a certain timidity. Rubio shows no such restraint and is very clear on what he believes to be true. He recently called Hamas “animals” and made clear that they are “100% to blame” for everyone killed in Israel and in Gaza during the current war. The moment he assumes control, there will be the “maximum pressure” that Trump often cites on Hamas to surrender or face the consequences. The Trump administration will supply Israel with bunker-busting bombs and whatever else is needed to kill anyone perceived to be an enemy of the Jewish state. Trump’s nominee for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has said, “If you love America, you should love Israel.” He will back that up by delivering on Israel’s military needs as defined by Netanyahu.
So there you go! The old year is ending on both a bang and a whimper. Joe Biden still has plenty of opportunity to raise hell and tie Trump to certain policies, particularly when it comes to continuing “useless” wars. Trump for his part will enter office owned by Israel and led by the nose by his belligerent cabinet. The actual needs and interests of the American people will be, as usual, invisible to the politicians and lost in the shuffle.
Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation (Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is councilforthenationalinterest.org, address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is inform@cnionline.org.
Alawites Are Syrians Too
By Peter Ford | 21st Century Wire | December 27, 2024
Alawites in their towns and villages in the Tartous and Lattakia provinces of Syria are being subjected to hideous pogroms under the new Islamist dispensation in Syria. And the world turns its back. The Alawites are just too inconvenient for the emerging preferred narrative.
While Christians, Kurds, Armenians and women have their vocal champions in the West, Alawites have no-one. Abandoned by Asad, the Russians and even the Iranians, the Alawites are all alone.
Historically despised in Syria for poverty, backwardness and ‘superstition’, not accepted until recently even by Shia as fellow Muslims, the Alawites are now anathematised for having allegedly been the backbone of the fallen Assad ruling system.
Ravening wolves descend on Alawite villages
Since Day 1 of the new jihadi era Alawites have been hounded, intimidated, beaten up, killed, mutilated, raped and pillaged. Gangs of gunmen have rounded up surrendering Alawite soldiers for roadside executions. Alawite judges have been murdered. Alawite householders have been expelled from their houses to make way for jihadi families. Thousands have been put to flight into the mountains or across the Lebanese border. Shrines have been desecrated. Armed gangs roam the streets flaunting ISIS and Al Qaida flags.
If any of this gets reported at all in Western or Middle Eastern media it is always alongside claims by the new HTS junta in Damascus that these incidents are aberrations and that perpetrators are being called to order. But they are not. The instances multiply. And how unsurprising is that when the slogan of the so-called Islamist revolution was “Christians to Beirut, Alawites to the grave”? What the world would see if it would just open its eyes is visceral bloody sectarianism. This goes way beyond the score-settling that inevitably occurs when one side wins a conflict. It is in the DNA of the fundamentalist pro tem winners.
Myths about Alawite power
Some of the hatred of Alawites arises from the myth that the Alawites ruled Syria in the Assad era. It is true that the Alawites as a community saw their position in Syrian society improve after the Alawite general Hafez Al Asad became President. Young Alawite men from impoverished families had since the days of the French mandate seen career opportunities in the army when other communities with opportunities in business or elsewhere in the state spurned such careers. A cadre of Alawites made their way up the ladder, culminating in Hafez Al Asad’s coup.
But Alawites never dominated Assadist Syria as much as was alleged. The business sector remained firmly in the hands of Sunnis and Christians. Alawites rarely held key positions in government cabinets. In the army, while a disproportionate segment of officers were Alawites, the top generals were almost always Sunnis. As were most of the rank and file. Alawites held key positions in the security apparatus, but even there the pinnacle was usually occupied by Sunnis.
In their heartlands of coastal Syria Alawite social life was much like that of the related Alevi community just up the coast in Turkey: more liberal, more emancipated than predominantly Sunni areas.
For this, and for their links to Assad, the Alawites are now being punished. Even those links to Assad were often strained: Alawites, perhaps because they were less likely to be accused of disloyalty, were often more vocal in their criticisms of the government and the security services than others. Alawites suffered as much as anybody from the impoverishment brought on by the war and by Western sanctions, blocking of reconstruction and deprivation of the oil and gas in the US/Kurdish area.
Persecution of Alawites doesn’t fit the narrative
Western powers and media look away from the vile torment of the Alawites. They can hardly disguise their glee at having had their Christmas come early with the toppling of Assad and the discomfiture of Russia and Iran. They prefer to revel in the new genre of ‘Assad porn’: stories, rarely fact-checked, of mass burials of political prisoners (mostly war dead, in fact), increasingly sensational claims about the notorious Sednaya Prison, as well as fake prisoners stumbling out of torture chambers, ‘liberated’ by CNN star reporters, and of course – chemical weapons somehow not quite yet found etc, etc.
Western governments and UN agencies lose all dignity rushing to kiss the feet of the erstwhile terrorist now moderate new Sultan of Damascus. They mouthe platitudes about the need for ‘inclusion’ as though all that was at stake was a corporations’ DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion) score, rather than very lives of terrified Alawites and others, just over the hill. They want to lift sanctions and get on with cementing the new regime into the Western system. Human rights come way down the list of priorities now that the West has what it wants.
The new Badlands
But the Alawites are brave. They are fighting back. They are resisting the Islamist gangs who come to confiscate their weapons, without which they and their families fear they will be butchered. And how is this presented in the media? Ah, these are ‘Assadist forces’.
Well let me tell you this. The new jihadi overlords may rule but they will not have control in areas like the Alawite and Kurdish heartlands, where they fail to respect communities and try to impose their jihadi system out of the barrel of a gun. These will be the jihadis’ Badlands, just as the Eastern areas bordering Iraq were the ISIS-spawning Badlands for the Assad government.
Author Peter Ford is a geopolitical and global affairs analyst, and former British Ambassador to Syria (2003-2006) and Bahrain (1999-2002). See more of Peter’s work here.
Manufacturing rebels: How the UK and US empowered HTS
By Kit Klarenberg | The Cradle | December 26, 2024
On 18 December, The Telegraph published an extraordinary investigation into how the UK and US trained and “prepared” fighters in the Revolutionary Commando Army (RCA), a “rebel” force that collaborated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the mass offensive toppling of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad weeks earlier.
In an unprecedented disclosure, the outlet revealed that Washington not only “knew about the offensive” well in advance, but also had “precise intelligence about its scale.” Washington’s now-confirmed “effective alliance” with HTS was described as “one of many ironies” emerging from the decade-and-a-half-long proxy war.
The Telegraph suggested this collaboration was inadvertent – simply a symptom of how Syria’s grinding, protracted civil war gave birth to “a bewildering array of militias and alliances, most of them backed by foreign powers.”
US support of HTS: A ‘necessary’ alliance
Alliances were fluid, with groups often splintering, merging, and shifting allegiances. Fighters frequently found themselves switching sides, blurring lines between factions. Yet, ample evidence indicates the UK and the US maintained deliberate, long-standing ties with the dominant rebels of HTS.
For instance, in March 2021, President-elect Donald Trump’s former lead Syria envoy, James Jeffrey, gave a revealing interview to PBS, during which he disclosed that Washington secured a specific “waiver” from then-secretary of state Mike Pompeo to assist HTS.
While this did not permit direct funding or arming of the UN/US-designated terrorist organization, the waiver ensured that if US-supplied resources “somehow” ended up with HTS, western actors “[could not] be blamed.”
The fungibility of weapons on the Syrian battlefield was something Washington counted on heavily. In a 2015 interview, CENTCOM spokesman Lieutenant Commander Kyle Raines was quizzed about why Pentagon-vetted fighters’ weapons were showing up in the hands of the Nusra Front (precursor to HTS). Raines responded: “We don’t ‘command and control’ these forces – we only ‘train and enable’ them. Who they say they’re allying with, that’s their business.”
This legal loophole enabled Washington to “indirectly” support HTS, ensuring the group did not collapse while maintaining its designation as a terrorist organization – a status complete with a now-rescinded $10 million bounty on leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who now goes by his real name Ahmad al-Sharaa.
Jeffrey rationalized this strategy, calling HTS “the least bad option” for preserving “a US-managed security system in the region,” and thus worth “[leaving] alone.” HTS’s dominance, in turn, gave Turkiye a platform to operate in Idlib. Meanwhile, HTS sent unmistakable messages to their US patrons, pleading:
“We want to be your friend. We’re not terrorists. We’re just fighting Assad.”
‘Safe haven’
Since Assad’s fall, officials in London have markedly taken the lead in legitimizing the HTS-led interim administration as Syria’s new government. The group was added to the UK’s list of proscribed terrorist organizations in 2017, its entry stating HTS should be considered among “alternative names” for the long-banned Al-Qaeda.
While UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer declared it “too early” to rescind the group’s designation, British officials met HTS representatives on 16 December – despite the illegality of such meetings.
This likely signals an impending, highly politicized western rehabilitation of HTS. Throughout Syria’s dirty war, UK intelligence waged extensive psychological operations to promote “moderate rebels,” crafting atrocity propaganda and human-interest stories.
These efforts were ostensibly aimed at undermining groups like HTS, ISIS, and Al-Qaeda. Yet leaked documents from UK intelligence reveal how HTS remained intertwined with Al-Qaeda post-2016, directly contradicting media narratives.
In other words, throughout the decade-and-a-half-long crisis, HTS was officially considered on par with the most fundamentalist, genocidal elements in the country.
British documents also make a total mockery of the common refrain that HTS severed all ties with Al-Qaeda in 2016. A 2020 file described how Al-Qaeda “co-exists” with HTS in occupied Syrian territory, using it as a launchpad for transnational attacks.
The document warned that HTS’s domination created a “safe haven” for Al-Qaeda to train and expand, fueled by instability. British psyops against HTS spanned years but ultimately failed. Instead, leaked files lament HTS’s growing influence, territorial gains, and rebranding as an alternative government.
“[Al-Qaeda] remains an explicitly Salafi-Jihadist transnational group with objectives and targets which extend outside Syria’s borders. [Al-Qaeda’s] priority is to maintain an instability fuelled safe haven in Syria, from which they are able to train and prepare for future expansion. HTS domination of north west Syria provides space for [Al-Qaeda] aligned groups and individuals to exist.”
British-backed propaganda benefiting HTS
British intelligence psyops attempting to hinder HTS were in operation from the group’s founding until recently. Yet, they appear to have achieved nothing. Numerous leaked files reviewed by The Cradle bemoan how HTS’s “influence and territorial control” had “dramatically grown” over the years.
Its successes allowed the extremist group “to consolidate its position, neutralize opponents, and position itself as a key actor in northern Syria.” But HTS’s “domination” was secured in part by the group rebranding itself as an alternative government.
HTS-occupied territory was home to a variety of parallel service providers and institutions, including hospitals, law enforcement, schools, and courts. The group’s domestic and international propaganda specifically promoted these resources as a demonstration of an “alternative” Syria awaiting rollout across the entire country.
Ironically, many of these structures and organizations – such as the infamous White Helmets, who also operated in ISIS-run territories – were direct products of British intelligence, created for regime change propaganda purposes. Moreover, they were aggressively promoted by London at enormous expense.
Repeated references are made in leaked UK intelligence documents to the importance of “[raising] awareness of moderate opposition service provision,” and providing domestic and international audiences with “compelling narratives and demonstrations of a credible alternative to the [Assad] regime.” There is no consideration evident in the files that these efforts might be assisting HTS greatly in its own efforts to present itself as a “credible alternative” to Assad.
Nonetheless, it is acknowledged that Syrians in occupied territory would accommodate HTS “particularly if [they are] receiving services from it.” Even more eerily, the documents note, “HTS and other extremist armed groups are significantly less likely to attack opposition entities that are receiving support” from the UK government’s Conflict, Stability, and Security Fund (CSSF).
This was the mechanism through which Britain’s Syrian propaganda war and organizations like the White Helmets and extremist-linked Free Syrian Police were financed.
These UK-run governance structures and opposition elements, which were allegedly intended to “undermine” HTS, operated in areas controlled by the group safe from violent reprisals for their foreign-funded work, as they “demonstrably provide key services” to residents of occupied territory.
There is also the darker prospect that HTS was well aware these “opposition entities” were bankrolled by British intelligence, and they were unmolested on that very basis.
Coordinated offensive
As The Telegraph‘s report explains, “the first indication that Washington had prior knowledge” of HTS’s offensive was when its RCA proxies were given a rousing pep talk by their US handlers three weeks prior.
At a secret meeting at the US-controlled Al-Tanf air base close to the borders of Jordan and Iraq, the militants were told to scale up their forces and “be ready” for an attack that “could lead to the end” of Assad. A quoted RCA captain told the outlet:
“They did not tell us how it would happen. We were just told: ‘Everything is about to change. This is your moment. Either Assad will fall, or you will fall.’ But they did not say when or where, they just told us to be ready.”
This followed US officers at the base, swelling the RCA’s ranks by unifying the group with other UK/US-trained, funded, and directed Sunni desert units and rebel units operating out of Al-Tanf under joint command.
According to The Telegraph, “RCA and the fighters of HTS … were cooperating, and communication between the two forces was being coordinated by the Americans.” This collaboration proved to be of devastating effect in the “lightning offensive,” with RCA rapidly seizing key territory across the country upon explicit US orders.
RCA even joined forces with another rebel faction in the southern city of Deraa, which reached Damascus before HTS. RCA now occupies roughly one-fifth of the country, pockets of territory in Damascus, and the ancient city of Palmyra.
Hitherto “heavily defended” by Russia and Hezbollah, Moscow’s local base has now been taken over by RCA. “All members of the force continued to be armed by the US,” receiving salaries of $400 monthly, nearly 12 times what Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers were paid.
It is uncertain whether this direct financing of the RCA and other extremist militias that toppled the Assad government continues today. What is clear, though, is that the UK and US supported HTS from the group’s inception, even if “indirectly.” In turn, this covert backing played a pivotal role in positioning HTS financially, geopolitically, materially, and militarily for its “lightning” swoop on Damascus and assumption of government today.
Reinforcing the interpretation that this was the objective of London and Washington all along, following Assad’s ouster, Starmer promptly declared that the UK would “play a more present and consistent role” in West Asia as a result.
While western and certain regional capitals may celebrate the apparent success of their lavishly funded, blood-soaked campaign to dismantle decades of Baathism, British intelligence had long cautioned that the outcome would grant Al-Qaeda an even larger “instability-fueled safe haven” for “future expansion.”
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From the Archives
World War II Didn’t End The Great Depression
Stark Realities with Brian McGlinchey | April 4, 2024
A principal goal of Stark Realities is to “expose fundamental myths across the political spectrum” — and few myths are as universally embraced as the notion that US participation in World War II (1941-1945) lifted the American economy out of the Great Depression.
This myth is dangerous not only because it leads citizens and politicians to see a bright side of war that doesn’t really exist, but also because it helps foster a belief that government spending is essential to countering economic downturns. That belief, in turn, has helped propel us to a point where the national debt now exceeds $34.6 trillion, with interest payments alone on pace to reach $1 trillion a year in 2026, inviting financial catastrophe. … continue
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