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Erdogan’s Idlib shock shadows “Kursk”

By Alastair Crooke | Strategic Culture Foundation | December 6, 2024

‘Doomsters’ is an occasional Russian expression used to categorise commentators that only see the ‘dark side to events’ (a vice quite prevalent during the Soviet era). Marat Khairullin, a highly respected Russian military analyst, says, “Today, a network of mercenary war bloggers has begun another round of moaning – this time about Syria, where apparently everything is lost for Russia”.

“Many see the events in Syria (and some add Georgia to the mix) as attempts to open additional fronts against our country. Perhaps that’s true. But in that case, it’s more appropriate to draw direct parallels with the reckless attack on Kursk, which left the Ukrainian armed forces in an almost hopeless position”.

Khairullin views the activation of this jihadist insurgency in Syria as a similarly ‘desperate’ act. The background is that the Syria-Russia-Iran coalition had – through the Astana negotiations – “cornered the remaining Syrian terrorists into a 6,000 sq. km enclave. Without delving into the details, it was a process reminiscent of the [Ukrainian] Minsk Agreements—both sides were utterly exhausted and thus agreed to a ceasefire. Importantly, all sides understood this was only a temporary truce; the contradictions were so profound that no one expected the conflict to end”.

Aleppo fell quickly these past days, as “one division of the Syrian National Army outright defected to the Islamists (read: Americans)”. The defection was a set up. Northern Aleppo was occupied by the Syrian National Army, fully controlled, armed and funded by Turkey, which dominates northern Aleppo.

The key, Khairullin says, is this crucial point: The land is flat criss-crossed by few roads:

“ … whomsoever controls the airspace controls the country. Last year, Russia formed a new aerial unit called the Special Air Corps, reportedly tailored for overseas operations. It consists of four aviation regiments, including a regiment of Su-35s. Currently, just two Su-35s are overseeing the entirety of Syria’s territory. Imagine the impact when 24 such aircraft are deployed. And Russia is fully capable of such a deployment”.

The second crucial point is that “Iran and Russia have drawn closer. At the start of the Syrian war, relations between the two were decidedly ‘neutral-hostile’. By late 2024 however, we now see a very strong alliance. Israel and the U.S., by violating the peace agreements through this Turkish insurrection, have provoked a renewed Iranian presence in Syria: Iran has begun to expand beyond its bases, redeploying additional forces into the country. This gives Assad and his allies a direct pretext to expel the American and Turkish proxies from Aleppo and Idlib. This isn’t speculation — it’s straightforward arithmetic”.

Syria, however, is a key component to the Israeli-American plan to remake the Middle East. Syria is both the supply-line for Hizbullah, as well as a hub of resistance to Israel’s “Greater Israel Project”. Now that the permanent ‘Anglo’ Security State unreservedly is backing Israel’s ambition to assert regional hegemony, the West has okayed Erdogan’s jihadist insurrection against President Assad. The aim is to split Iran from its allies, weaken Assad and to prepare for the putative Iran overthrow. Reportedly, the Turkish initiative was hurriedly brought forward, to fit with Israel’s ceasefire plan.

Khairullin’s point is that this Syria ‘ploy’ is akin to Ukraine’s “reckless attack on Kursk”, which diverted Ukrainian élite forces from the beleaguered Contact Line, and then marooned these forces in an almost hopeless position in Kursk. Instead of weakening Moscow (as intended), ‘Kursk’ inverted NATO’s original objective – by becoming opportunity to eradicate a major portion of Ukraine’s élite forces.

In Idlib, the Islamists (HTS), writes Khairullin, “had gained dominance – imposing a strict Wahhabi regime and infiltrating the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. Both groups are patchwork organizations, with various factions fighting over money, border crossings, drugs, and smuggling. Essentially, it’s a cauldron—not very combat-effective but highly greedy”.

“Our Aerospace Forces obliterated all command centres (bunkers) of Tahrir al-Sham … and there is a strong likelihood that the entire leadership of the group has been decapitated”, notes Khairullin.

The Syrian Army’s main forces are advancing toward Aleppo; meanwhile, the Russian Air Force is bombing relentlessly; its Navy held a large drill off the Syria coast on 3 December with test launches of hypersonic and Kalibr cruise missiles; and Wagner and the Iraqi Hash’ad forces (Iraqi PM forces that are now part of the Iraqi army) are grouping on the ground in support of the Syrian Army.

Israeli Intelligence Chief’s lately have begun to scent problems with this ‘clever initiative’ that dovetails so exactly with Israel’s pause in the Lebanon fighting; With the supply route from Syria cut, Israel then – in theory – would be in a position to commence ‘Part Two’ of its attempted onslaught on Hizbullah.

But wait … Israeli Channel 12 reports the possibility that events in Syria are creating threats against Israel “where Israel would be required to act”.

Shades of ‘Kursk’ – rather than Hizbullah being weakened, Israel adds to its military commitments? Erdogan too, may have wrong-footed himself with this gamble. He has infuriated Moscow and Tehran, and is being flailed at home for siding with the U.S. and America against the Palestinians. Further, he has drawn no Arab support (apart from a Qatari studied ambivalence).

Yes, Erdogan has cards to play in the relationship with Putin (control of naval access to the Black Sea, tourism and energy), but Russia is an ascendant great power and can afford to play some hardball in negotiations with a weakened Erdogan. Iran also has cards to play: ‘You, Erdogan, equipped the jihadists with Ukrainian drones; We can deliver the same to the Kurdish Workers Party’.

In the background is the bellicose language emerging from Team Trump, some of whom take harshly aggressive and hardline positions. These Israel-Firster and hawkish appointees by Trump likely emit their bluster as much to project an image of Trumpist strength to the American public, as to project a substantive project.

Trump is known for waving a big stick – and when he has played that tune for a little while, he slips in from behind, to complete a deal.

So we have had (from Trump): “If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East”.

In the ‘Middle East’? To whom exactly is this addressed? And what does it suggest? (No mention of the thousands of Palestinian detainees and prisoners held by Israel)? Sounds more like Trump has sipped at the Israeli Kool-Aid: ‘All problems derive from Iran’; Israel is the innocent adrift a sea of regional malignity.

Trump’s disciples believe Trump will impose his will to achieve ‘quiet’ in the Middle East – and impose on Putin an end to the Ukraine War. They are convinced Trump can ‘cut a deal’ in the form of an offer to Putin that he cannot refuse. (For, ‘the current ‘owners of the world’ are never going to let China/Russia just waltz in, form BRICS and assume the position of World Hegemon’).

It is a return to the old formula of Zbig Brzezenski: Promise Putin normalisation with U.S. (and Europe) and full sanctions relief, and pull Russia back into the western sphere – severed from a besieged China and Iran (with BRICS scattered to the wind under threat of sanctions).

It fails, however, to take account of how much the world has transitioned in the intervening years since ‘Trump One’. Bluster simply doesn’t carry the effect it used to: America isn’t what it was; nor is it obeyed as it once was.

Does Trump understand this accelerating global metamorphosis (as Will Schryver puts it), that “the only deal to be made with Russia is that of agreeing to the terms Russia dictates”:

“That’s what happens in the real world when you win a big war. And make no mistake, in this war, the Ukrainians have been slaughtered, the U.S./NATO has been humiliated, and the Russians are emerging from it indisputably triumphant, and more powerful on the world stage than they have been since the peak of Soviet strength decades ago”.

In other words, ‘big stick; quick deal’ may not answer to the new world of today.

Putin, in response to a questioner at Astana on 29 November, repeated an earlier warning:

“Let me underscore the key point: the essence of our proposal [on Ukraine, given at the Russian Foreign Ministry] is not a temporary truce or ceasefire, as the West might prefer – to allow the Kiev regime to recover, rearm, and prepare for a new offensive. I repeat: we are not discussing freezing the conflict, but its definitive resolution”.

What Putin is saying – very politely – to the West is that: You still ‘don’t get it’. To seek a deal on Ukraine is to treat the symptom and to ignore a cure. The West has its policy back-to-front, in other words. Putin is clear: A definitive solution would be to delineate the frontier between Atlanticist security ‘interest’ and the security interests of the ‘World Island’ (in Mackinder’s terminology): i.e. to settle the security architecture between the ‘Heartland and the Rim-land’. Once that is done, Ukraine falls naturally into its place. It’s at the end of the agenda, not first.

One highly-regarded foreign policy sage, Professor Sergei Karaganov, explains (original only in Russian):

“Our [Russian] goal is to facilitate the U.S.’s incipient retreat, as peaceably as possible, from the position of global hegemon (which it can no longer afford) to the position of a normal great power. And to expel Europe from being any international actor. Let it stew in its own juices … The conclusion is obvious. We must end the current phase of direct military conflict with the West, but not the broader confrontation with it. Trump will offer to ease pressure on Russia (which he cannot guarantee) in exchange for Russia refraining from a close alliance with China. The Trump administration will propose a deal, alternating threats with promises … but the U.S. already understands that it cannot win. America will remain an unreliable partner for the foreseeable future. Fundamental normalization of our relations with the U.S. should not be expected in the coming decade. Trump’s hands are tied by the Russophobia fanned by liberals for years. The inertia of the Cold War is still quite strong, and so are anti-Russian feelings among most Trumpists”.

“The foremost goal of the current war should be the decisive defeat in Ukraine of Europe’s rising revanchism. This is a war to ward off World War III and to prevent the restoration of the Western yoke. The initial negotiating position is obvious, it has been stated and should not be changed: NATO’s return to its 1997 borders. Beyond that, various options are possible. Naturally, Trump will try to up the ante. So, we should act pre-emptively”, Professor Karaganov advises.

Recall too, that Trump is, at heart, a sworn disciple of the cult of American primacy; American greatness. “He will act accordingly … The Russians will dictate the terms of surrender in this [Ukraine] war because their strength affords them that privilege, and there is nothing the U.S. and its impotent European vassals can do to alter that reality. That said, a decisive strategic defeat is going to be a very bitter pill to swallow for this second Trump administration. Hopefully they won’t opt to set the world on fire in a fit of humiliated madness”.

December 6, 2024 Posted by | Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Iran says it’s ready to send troops to Syria

RT | December 3, 2024

Tehran would consider a full military deployment to aid Syria if the government in Damascus requests it, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said.

The comments came during an inteview that Araghchi gave to the Qatar-based outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed on his way back from Türkiye on Monday evening.

“If the Syrian government asks Iran to send troops to Syria, we will consider the request,” Araghchi was quoted as saying.

Tehran is preparing “a series of steps to calm the situation in Syria and find an opportunity to present an initiative for a permanent solution,” he added.

Militants of al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) and other Islamist groups launched a large-scale offensive from Idlib province towards Aleppo, Hama and Homs last week. Idlib has been under Turkish protection since a ceasefire negotiated with Russia in 2020.

The expansion of these terrorist groups “may harm Syria’s neighboring countries such as Iraq, Jordan, and Türkiye more than Iran,” Araghchi told the Qatari outlet.

Tehran is willing to “consult and dialogue” with Ankara to bridge their differences, Araghchi noted, but said that Iran demands a withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria before any meeting between their presidents can take place. According to the Iranian foreign minister, this is a “reasonable” request.

Iran is “concerned about the collapse of the Astana process in Syria, because there is no easy alternative to it,” according to Araghchi. This was a reference to the deal signed in 2017 in the capital of Kazakhstan, in which the governments in Damascus, Ankara, Tehran, and Moscow pledged to work on resolving the Syrian conflict peacefully.

Araghchi also said he intended to visit Moscow to discuss the situation in Syria.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that Ankara supports “Syria’s territorial integrity and national unity” but that ending the conflict required a “consensus in line with the legitimate demands of the Syrian people.” His foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, said on Monday that the hostilities resumed because Damascus ignored the “legitimate demands of the opposition.”

Meanwhile, Russia has reiterated its support for Syrian President Bashar Assad and the government in Damascus.

The Russian expeditionary force, deployed to Syria in 2015 to help Damascus fight against Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIS) terrorists, has carried out a series of airstrikes against the attacking jihadists in support of the Syrian army.

December 3, 2024 Posted by | Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , | 1 Comment

A surprise assault on Syria, but can it last?

By Haidar Mustafa | The Cradle | November 30, 2024

In his speech announcing Israel’s agreement to a ceasefire with Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a direct threat to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, warning him of “playing with fire.” Those words came mere hours before armed terrorist factions from Idlib launched a shock offensive on Syrian army positions in the de-escalation zone in the western countryside of Aleppo. The operation is being led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebranded incarnation of Al-Nusra Front – or Syria’s Al-Qaeda franchise – led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, with the participation of other international terror organizations such as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP).

The army is preparing to deter aggression

On the morning of 27 November, armed extremist groups launched violent attacks on Syrian army positions in the vicinity of the 46th Regiment and toward the villages of Orem al-Kubra, Orem al-Sughra, Basratun, Anjara, and the surrounding areas, located a short distance from the M5 Aleppo-Hama-Damascus highway. 

In their first surprise attack, as part of an operation called “Deterrence of Aggression,” the militants were able to enter a number of villages that Syrian army forces had evacuated in preparation for containing the breach, which constitutes a flagrant violation of the 2019 de-escalation agreements between Turkey, Russia, and Iran.

The scope of the battles quickly expanded on the international road and into the city of Aleppo. A Turkish security source quoted by Qatari-funded Middle East Eye said that the goal of the military operation launched by HTS and its allies is the recovery of the positions gained by the Syrian forces with the support of Russia during the battles of 2017 – 2020.

The militants claim that the Syrian and Russian army’s “violations” of the de-escalation agreements – and their intensification of strikes on Idlib – prompted these military operations in order to regain their control of these areas. They say that the Syrian army’s retreat in Aleppo’s western countryside provided impetus for the militants to launch further attacks toward rural eastern Idlib.

Within three days, armed extremist groups were able to reach the heart of Aleppo and declare a curfew for 24 hours. As the confrontations intensified, Syrian and Russian warplanes launched a series of violent raids on HTS and Turkestani sites and supply lines in Darat Azza, Al-Atareb, Sarmin, and other areas. These airstrikes are still ongoing, with video footage revealing heavy losses in the ranks of the extremist factions and several media sources confirming fatalities of more than 200 members of HTS and other militant groups in the Aleppo and Idlib regions.

The expansion of air attacks by the Syrian and Russian forces led, on Thursday morning, to a lull in HTS’ field momentum as the group suffered both human and material losses. Sources on the frontline also reveal the arrival of huge military reinforcements to the main confrontation zone, which extends over an area of ​​​​more than 26 kilometers in western Aleppo – Syrian troops and supplies that are planning a counterattack to restore the status quo. Military expert Haitham Hassoun explains to The Cradle that the Syrian army has regrouped in the rear lines of defense at a depth of 7 to 8 kilometers in preparation for carrying out the counterattack.

How did the preparations go?

In reality, the HTS operation was by no means a spur-of-the-moment offensive but rather a result of years-long preparations spearheaded by US and Turkish intelligence to unify the ranks of various extremist factions in Syria’s north. This project took place under the direct supervision of the Turkish army, which aimed to converge the militant groups in Idlib and the Aleppo countryside and place decision-making in the hands of mainly two parties: the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA), which is loyal to Ankara, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria.  

In this mash-up of terror outfits are the Turkestan and Uyghur “jihadist” groups, used primarily as strike forces in specific military operations, largely fulfilling the interests of their US and Turkish funders. 

Military expert, Brigadier General Haitham Hassoun, confirms that preparations to launch this operation began “a long time ago,” and that the participating groups established a joint ops room about a month and a half ago. He believes that the militants benefited from “misdirection” and electronic warfare media operations carried out by Turkish intelligence to camouflage their intentions and movements and by Turkish occupation forces inside Syria during the days preceding the shock offensive. The militants further benefited from sophisticated intel that helped them exploit existing loopholes on the ground and were aware of vacuums in the Syrian army’s positions, which then led to this breach and confusion in the defense lines.

Who made the decision, and what is the goal?

Today’s scenes in Idlib and Aleppo remind Syrians of a period they thought they had put behind them after the 2016 liberation of Aleppo and the 2019 de-escalation understandings. But those hard-fought understandings had always remained fragile, given that Turkiye evaded its commitments to purge the M5 area of terrorist groups. The militancy in Syria’s north served Ankara’s interest in maintaining pressure on Damascus. It also explains this week’s armed operation – an action the Turks believe will force the Syrian government to enter negotiations under fire, especially if armed extremists re-enter Aleppo or sever the critical international route.  

On the other hand, one objective of the operation may be the US decision to maintain a state of conflict in the region and redirect pressure toward Russia and its regional allies ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

As many commentators have pointed out, the military operation was launched in the direct aftermath of Netanyahu’s explicit threats in his speech this week and is likely connected to Israel’s regional war and Tel Aviv’s determination to sever the Syrian route for members of the Resistance Axis. The offensive appears to have been coordinated with the NATO-member Turkiye, under the direction of Turkish occupation authorities and intelligence services, which have for years managed and supported the various extremist groups in northern Syria.

In a preliminary estimate, what is happening is a return to the situation before 2019, a re-invasion that effectively seeks to derail all the achievements of the Astana peace process. In turn, this deserves nothing less than an equally brash and unexpected response: a Syrian military counter-offensive that not only reclaims the positions held by Syrian army forces a few days ago but one that decisively pushes all the way to Darat Izza and beyond up to the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkiye, cutting off communications routes between the militants in the Aleppo and Idlib regions, and restoring the entire governorates under Syrian government control. 

What began as a shock assault may have created an opportunity to end the state of limbo in the country’s north at the end of the Syrian war, provide Damascus and its allies a way to sidestep unproductive de-escalation understandings, and hand the Syrian state a legitimate, legal and moral justification to liberate all territories from terror organizations. 

Until or unless this happens, western Aleppo and eastern Idlib will remain active battlefields. However, according to informed sources, the militants are unlikely to remain in an advantageous position for long for several key reasons. 

First is the imminent arrival of large Syrian military reinforcements to the area, which will not allow Aleppo to fall into the hands of foreign-backed extremists. Second, these US and Turkish-backed militant groups are less likely to achieve their goals today than in the early years of the war because of seismic political and economic shifts in Europe, which fears the revival of the Syrian conflict and another flood of refugees to its borders. 

Third, Damascus has returned to the Arab fold by rejoining the Arab League and being welcomed by several Persian Gulf states. Those capitals are no longer interested in backing jihadists, resuscitating the war, or destabilizing Lebanon and Iraq, Syria’s direct and connected neighbors, at this moment. Nor are they interested in opening up the Syrian military arena to Iranian advisors or forces again. 

December 1, 2024 Posted by | Wars for Israel | , , , , , | Leave a comment

War in Sudan and its Grim Prospects

By Viktor Mikhin – New Eastern Outlook – November 29, 2024

Russia used its veto power in the UN Security Council (UNSC) to block a draft resolution calling for an end to the 20-month war in Sudan and the commencement of negotiations between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The draft resolution, widely seen as neo-colonial in its design, was proposed by the UK, which holds the UNSC presidency on Sudan, and Sierra Leone, a non-permanent UNSC member, which London appears to have pressured into supporting Western interests in this instance.

Reasons for the Russian Veto

During the drafting process leading up to the vote, several concerns regarding the wording were raised. However, following the vote, it became clear that constructive proposals from UNSC members were disregarded, and their legitimate concerns were not adequately addressed. The Chinese representative stressed that any UNSC resolution or action must “respect the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Sudan.” He warned that, “Imposing external solutions will only worsen the situation and will neither help end the war nor protect the civilian population.”

Explaining the outcome of the vote, the Russian representative stated: “The main problem with the British draft lies in its misunderstanding of who bears responsibility for protecting the civilian population, as well as border control and security within the country.” According to the Russian representative, “this should be exclusively a matter for the Sudanese government.” He further accused British diplomats of “clearly denying Sudan this right.” He concluded, “Our country will continue to consistently use its veto power to prevent such occurrences against our African brothers.”

Sudanese Support

According to Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the draft resolution’s wording violated Sudan’s sovereignty. An Arab diplomatic source at the UN explained al-Burhan’s position, stating that the draft “implied an equivalence between the SAF and the RSF, which is something al-Burhan could not accept, especially now that the army is making gains on the ground and receiving stronger political support regionally and internationally.”

Many diplomatic sources in the region agree that the draft resolution failed to reflect the balance of power on the ground, which, according to one, has “definitely shifted in favour of the SAF.” The army currently controls much of Sudanese territory, and al-Burhan enjoys greater international recognition than the RSF and its leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti. They point out that Hemeti heads the RSF, a militia created in 2013 by Omar al-Bashir to protect his brutal regime and responsible for numerous atrocities, particularly in Darfur. Hemeti, along with other RSF figures, has been accused by international humanitarian organisations of ethnic cleansing targeting non-Arab tribes in West Darfur.

The Rift Between al-Burhan and Hemeti

Al-Burhan appointed Hemeti as his deputy on the Transitional Sovereign Council (TSC) formed after the overthrow of al-Bashir. This move drew criticism from the African Union, which stated that it was “a very bad sign, showing that al-Bashir’s successors were attempting to recreate his dictatorial regime, albeit under a democratic façade.” The TSC, it seems, was designed more for the internal distribution of power within al-Bashir’s clique than for any other purpose.

The conflict began in mid-April 2023. Following al-Bashir’s removal, al-Burhan and Hemeti initially joined forces, seizing control but allowing for limited power-sharing with civilians. However, when al-Burhan dismissed the interim civilian government in October 2022, Hemeti seized the opportunity to oppose al-Burhan, claiming the move was “anti-democratic.” According to Arab diplomatic sources, including those who served in Khartoum, Hemeti’s pronouncements on democracy ring hollow. In reality, they say, Hemeti has always aspired to power and believed he could strike a deal with the civilian government to replace al-Burhan as commander-in-chief.

Sudan’s problems are largely driven by regional powers vying for control of the country’s natural resources and exploiting its strategic location. It’s no secret that an Arab capital, with significant investments and interests in Sudan, pushed the West to draft a self-serving resolution which they attempted to sneak through the UNSC. They failed! However, the West remains undeterred, continuing its sophisticated attempts to bring Sudan entirely under its control.

Attempts to Resolve the Conflict

The international community has been closely monitoring the situation in Sudan since the conflict began and, over the past year, has been working with like-minded regional partners to create an opportunity for peace. Cairo, a view shared by Ankara and Tehran, believes that the best chance for peace lies in a unified Sudanese army under a single command, arguing that “otherwise, the country will simply move from one war to another.” Over the past 11 months, a series of meetings have been held in Cairo with representatives from Sudan’s armed, political, and religious forces, aiming to forge a united front capable of cooperating with the SAF based on power-sharing and stability. As the SAF has made military gains against the RSF, the number of Sudanese actors willing to participate has increased. Many believe it is only a matter of time before the RSF is forced to acknowledge its weakening position, despite the support it receives from regional allies.

Since the start of the war, 11 million Sudanese have been displaced. The UN estimates that half are children, the majority of whom lack access to basic nutrition. Furthermore, a further 15 million Sudanese are suffering from food insecurity and a lack of access to essential healthcare.

It was only in mid-August that significant UN humanitarian aid reached Sudan via the Adre crossing point connecting Darfur to Chad. According to the UNHCR, just over 50% of the $2.7 billion budget required for humanitarian assistance in Sudan has been secured in 2023. The UN believes that “Sudan needs more than just immediate humanitarian aid; it needs a proper and workable peace plan. This is what we are working on, and we have the support of several global and regional capitals.”

According to David Patteritt, US envoy to Sudan, outgoing US President Joe Biden is making every effort to secure a deal on Sudan before leaving office on 20 January. However, according to Cairo’s Al-Ahram, this deadline is overly optimistic. The newspaper warns that “we’ll be lucky to see any movement by then, and a deal will take considerably longer,” suggesting that much will depend on the stance of US President Donald Trump’s new administration.

It is therefore abundantly clear who is fanning the flames of civil war in Sudan, attempting to profit from the Sudanese people’s suffering. But this is the 2020s, and neo-colonial politics, however alluringly packaged, no longer hold sway.

Victor Mikhin is a Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences (RANS).

November 29, 2024 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , , | Leave a comment

Türkiye protests latest US sanctions against Russia

RT | November 26, 2024

Türkiye is currently in talks with the US to secure a sanctions waiver that would allow it to continue using Russia’s Gazprombank to pay for natural gas imports, the country’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told reporters on Monday.

Last week, the US Treasury Department imposed restrictions on more than 50 Russian financial institutions, including Gazprombank, which is linked to the eponymous Russian gas giant, and six of its international subsidiaries. The sanctions have effectively cut off Russia’s primary bank for energy-related transactions from the SWIFT interbank messaging system, meaning it can no longer be used for dollar-based transactions.

According to Bayraktar, unless a special exemption is made, Türkiye, which imports nearly all of its gas, won’t be able to pay Moscow for natural resources. Russia currently accounts for more than 50% of the country’s pipeline imports, according to Reuters.

In his comments, Bayraktar pointed to a previous waiver granted to Ankara when Washington had sanctioned Iran in 2012. At the time, the sanctions against Tehran included a clause that allowed the US President to issue a special exemption if an oil-importing country faced “exceptional circumstances” that made it impossible to reduce Iranian oil imports. Bayraktar has argued that Türkiye now needs a similar waiver for Gazprombank in order to secure its supply of natural gas.

“These sanctions will affect Turkey. We cannot pay. If we cannot pay, we cannot buy the goods. The foreign ministry is in talks,” Bayraktar said.

The latest US sanctions have also sparked disdain among several other European buyers of Russian gas. Last week, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto accused Washington of trying to undermine energy security in the Central European region by imposing restrictions on Gazprombank.

In a post on Facebook, the diplomat stated that any attempts to jeopardize energy supplies to Hungary are “considered as an offence against our sovereignty” and stressed that Budapest denounces all such attacks and has vowed to “resist the pressure and pursue our national interests.”

He added that Hungary is currently in talks with other countries, such as Bulgaria, Serbia, Azerbaijan and Slovakia in hopes of finding a solution for securing energy supplies.

Meanwhile, despite the EU announcing plans to eliminate its dependence on Russian energy, it has remained one of the world’s major importers of Russian fossil fuels while its members have purchased record volumes of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Moscow.

November 26, 2024 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

NATO member says Russia has right to self-defense

RT | November 19, 2024

The West should pay attention to Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, which reflects Moscow’s right and ability to defend itself from threats, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said.

Moscow unveiled the proposed changes to its strategic deterrent in September, while Ukraine was still clamoring for permission to use Western weapons for long-range strikes into Russian territory. The new doctrine was officially adopted on Tuesday, hours after Ukraine’s US-supplied missiles were used to target Bryansk Region.

“I think that this statement by Russia is, above all, a measure taken in response to the stance taken against it, concerning the use of conventional weapons,” Erdogan said on Tuesday at a press conference following the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

“I think that this issue must be considered by NATO officials. Russia has the right and ability to protect itself and to take measures for its defense. And it was compelled to take these measures,” Erdogan added.

NATO countries have the same right to self-defense, the Turkish leader said, but need to keep in mind that “there are no upsides to a war involving nuclear weapons.”

Multiple US outlets reported over the weekend that US President Joe Biden had lifted the restrictions on Kiev’s use of US-supplied rockets. The White House has neither confirmed nor denied the reports, but Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky claimed on Tuesday that they were true.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the West that Kiev’s use of long-range missiles would change the character of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and make NATO a direct participant in the hostilities.

The US and its allies have funneled almost $200 billion worth of aid to Ukraine since 2022, while insisting this did not make them a party to the conflict. Although a NATO member state, Türkiye has not implemented sanctions against Russia and has maintained relations with both Moscow and Kiev.

Both Russia and Ukraine are Türkiye’s neighbors, Erdogan told reporters in Brazil, noting that Ankara must protect its bilateral ties with both. The three countries all border the Black Sea.

“I hope that we will achieve a definitive ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia as soon as possible and secure the peace the planet has been eagerly waiting for,” he added.
Türkiye hosted the initial negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in March 2022. The promising process collapsed after the West signaled unconditional support for Kiev and an unwillingness to make peace with Moscow.

November 19, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , , , | Leave a comment

Iran, Russia, Turkey condemn Israeli atrocities in West Asia

Press TV – November 12, 2024

Iran, Russia, and Turkey have condemned the Israeli regime’s continuous atrocities in the West Asia region, calling for increased international efforts to secure an “immediate and permanent” ceasefire in Gaza.

A closing statement from the three countries following the 22nd international meeting on Syria in the Astana format, held in Kazakhstan’s capital, expressed their “strong condemnation and deep concern over the ongoing mass killings and criminal attacks by Israel in Gaza, as well as Israeli aggression in Lebanon and the West Bank.”

They called on the international community, in particular the UN Security Council, “to secure an immediate and permanent ceasefire and unhindered humanitarian access in Gaza.”

The trio also condemned Israeli military attacks on Syria, deeming such actions as violations of international law.

“[The sides] condemned all Israeli military strikes in Syria. [They] considered these actions as a violation of international law, international humanitarian law, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, and recognized them as destabilizing and exacerbating tensions in the region and called for the ceasing of these attacks,” the statement said.

The sides acknowledged the negative impact of the escalation of tensions in the region on Syria, underscoring the urgency for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), UN agencies, and all humanitarian actors to develop an emergency response for those who were forced to cross from Lebanon into Syria following the escalation of hostilities in Lebanon.

The Israeli regime has been conducting a genocide in Gaza for over a year, resulting in significant casualties. The regime has recently expanded its military aggression to Lebanon, causing numerous fatalities in the Arab country.

Israel has also conducted repeated attacks on Syria and others in the region as part of its escalated campaign of violence.

Call for Turkey-Syria normalization

The joint statement also stressed the importance of resumed contacts and continuing efforts to normalize relations between Ankara and Damascus.

They stressed the need to combat terrorism, facilitate the safe and voluntary return of Syrians with support from the UNHCR, advance the political process, and ensure that unrestricted humanitarian aid reaches all Syrians, as stated in the joint declaration.

The statement said that the sides “reaffirmed the importance of resuming contacts between Turkey and Syria on the basis of strict adherence to the principles of respect for the unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty of both countries.”

They “emphasized the importance of resuming contacts in this format,” it said.

The three parties agreed to hold the next round of the Astana talks on Syria in the first half of 2025.

Initiated in 2017, the Astana format is a series of negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in Syria.

It involves Russia, Iran, and Turkey as guarantor countries, alongside representatives from the Syrian government and opposition, the United Nations, and observer nations such as Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq.

The Astana process has been instrumental in facilitating dialogue among key stakeholders in the war on Syria, focusing on de-escalation zones, humanitarian aid, and political solutions.

November 12, 2024 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism | , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Trump wants US troops out of northern Syria: RFK Jr

Press TV – November 7, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump wants to withdraw US troops from northern Syria rather than leave them as “cannon fodder” if fighting breaks out between Turkey and Kurdish militants, his ally Robert F Kennedy Jr has said.

Kennedy, who is expected to play a major role in the new US government, said during a live broadcast that Trump had expressed his intentions for northern Syria during a plane journey.

“We were talking about the Middle East, and he took a piece of paper and drew on it a map of the Middle East with all the nations on it, which most Americans couldn’t do.

“He was he was particularly looking at the border between Syria and Turkey, and he said, ‘We have 500 men on the border of Syria and Turkey and a little encampment that was bombed,’” Kennedy said.

Trump had told him there were 750,000 troops in Turkey and 250,000 militants in Syria. “If they go up against each other, we’re in the middle,” Trump told him, according to Kennedy.

Trump was told by the “generals” that the US troops would be “cannon fodder” if Turkey and the Kurdish forces came to blows. “And he said, ‘Get them out!'” Kennedy said.

Trump was re-elected president on Wednesday after easily beating his rival Kamala Harris.

The US military has for long stationed its forces and equipment in northeastern Syria, with the Pentagon claiming that the deployment is aimed at preventing the oilfields in the area from falling into the hands of Daesh terrorists.

Damascus maintains the deployment is meant to plunder the country’s natural resources. Trump admitted on several occasions that American forces were in the Arab country for its oil wealth.

Turkey has also deployed forces in Syria in violation of the Arab country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Ankara views US-backed YPG Kurdish militants as a terrorist organization tied to the homegrown Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been seeking an autonomous region in Turkey since 1984.

November 7, 2024 Posted by | Illegal Occupation | , , , | 2 Comments

“Israel” Is Top Suspect in Turkish Terror Attack

By Kevin Barrett with extensive translated quotes from Al-Jazeera Arabic | October 24, 2024

Who was behind Wednesday’s terrorist attack on Turkey’s leading aerospace company? According to reports, at least five people were killed, and 22 others wounded, when two terrorists attacked the facility with explosives and gunfire before being “neutralized.”

First clue: Turkish president Erdogan “was holding talks in Russia with Vladimir Putin at the time of the attack.” That suggests that one or more members of the “collective West”—in other words, the Zionist-occupied US empire—probably orchestrated the attack as a rebuke or warning to Turkey and Erdogan. And by targeting Turkey’s leading aerospace facility, someone was presumably sending a message of disapproval regarding activities related to that facility: “We know what you’re up to, so don’t even think about it.”

The attack was not only timed to coincide with Erdogan’s meeting with Putin, but also came during the apparent lead-up to an Israeli attack on Iran that is expected to ignite a major regional war. The Turkish government, like its close ally Qatar, is a major supporter of Hamas, whose leaders Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh have been martyred by the Zionists, kindling even stronger global support for the resistance group. At the same time, Israel exercises covert influence in Turkey due to its penetration of the deep state and armed forces with Donmeh (satanic Jewish) traitors.

Israel, which has probably conducted more terror attacks (against both allies and enemies) than all of the world’s other 190+ nations put together, is obviously the leading suspect in the Ankara slaughter. Everyone familiar with the region knows this, but most only say so with hints and whispers for fear of being next on the Zionist terror target list. And though Al-Jazeera English has ignored the elephant in the room, Al-Jazeera Arabic has published an interesting analysis by Saeed al-Haj that discretely echoes the consensus of regional experts. Highlights:

The terrorist attack on the Aerospace Industries Company in Ankara came at a sensitive time in Turkish domestic politics, as well as regional developments, especially the possibility of expanding the “Israeli” aggression in the region, which carries many implications and refers to political, military and security messages to Ankara from several parties.

… the Turkish president has been talking for weeks about the need to “strengthen the internal front” to protect Turkey from external dangers that have begun to threaten it with “Israel’s expansionist policies in the region”, as he put it, and the increasing possibility of a regional war according to Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

… The attack targeted the largest aircraft manufacturing company in Turkey, owned by the Turkish Armed Forces and the government, which is working on developing the first domestically-made fighter jet, in addition to other projects.

… We recall Erdogan’s statement about the necessity of Turkey strengthening itself in the field of defense industries “so that Israel cannot do what it is doing now,” recalling his country’s military contribution to both Libya and the South Caucasus, and the possibility of repeating this in Palestine, a statement to which the occupation’s foreign minister responded by threatening Erdogan with “the fate of Saddam Hussein.”

This external dimension is also reinforced by the timing of the attack, which coincided with the Turkish president’s participation in the BRICS summit in Kazan, which many view as an economic bloc competing with or alternative to the G7, as it includes countries such as Russia, China and India, which Ankara recently announced its quest for membership. It is important to note the similarity between the name of the city hosting the summit (Kazan) and the Ankara suburb where the targeted company is located (Kazan), regardless of the degree of deliberateness or coincidence in that. (Emphasis mine -KB).

Because Turkey’s pursuit of BRICS membership, in addition to membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, comes in the context of unstable relations with the West, in light of the stagnation of EU accession negotiations and US sanctions due to the Russian S-400 defense system deal and Washington’s procrastination in completing arms export deals (recently F-16 fighters), Turkish-Western tension over the war on Gaza, and Turkey’s apprehension about the role of Greece and Cyprus in any scenario of this kind, this revives the debate about “Ankara changing its direction from the West to the East.

Publicly, Erdogan has blamed the Kurdish separatist terror group PKK and ordered his air force to bomb PKK sites in Syria and Iraq in response to the terror attack. But what most Americans don’t realize is that Turkey is bombing US-Israeli proxies! The PKK-linked Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), directly controlled by the Washington-Tel Aviv axis, controls a quarter of Syria, including its most agriculturally productive and oil-rich regions. Likewise the YPG in Iraq is a Zio-American mercenary force. Both “Kurdish” Israeli-American occupations ship oil to Israel against the wishes of the governments and peoples of Iraq and Syria, and reap massive profits that rightly belong to the legitimate Syrian and Iraqi governments (both of which have ordered US occupation forces to leave).

So Turkey just bombed an American-Israeli occupation army, killing 12 people in Syria and a still-unknown number in Iraq. It is not known whether the Turkish bombings targeting the occupiers of Syria and Iraq killed any of the American or Zionist occupiers.

Conclusion: The likely US-Israeli attack on the Turkish aerospace facility, and the Turkish retaliation against US-Israeli proxies in Iraq and Syria, suggests that when Israel ignites a massive regional war by attacking Iran, Turkey will side with Iran (and Palestine, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and indeed the people of the region). But whether it will do so boldly and openly, or in a more subtle and covert manner, remains to be seen.

October 24, 2024 Posted by | Illegal Occupation, War Crimes, Wars for Israel | , , , | Leave a comment

Exposing US Foreign Policy in Middle East | Gary Vogler Interview

Counter Currents | October 12, 2024

Gary Vogler, who spent eight years working with the Pentagon’s Iraq oil team and even briefly served as the country’s oil minister, joins host and former CIA analyst Larry Johnson to discuss the following issues:

  • Role of oil in Iraq War
  • US occupation of Syrian oil fields
  • Israel’s oil dependence vulnerability

October 13, 2024 Posted by | Book Review, Video, Wars for Israel | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Ukraine offers ‘drones-for-fighters’ deal to Syrian extremist group: Report

The Cradle | September 10, 2024

Ukrainian government representatives recently met with members of Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) extremist group to discuss a drones-for-fighters deal, Turkish newspaper Aydinlik reported on 9 September.

“A delegation from Ukraine went to Idlib in recent months and met with the leaders of the terrorist organization,” the newspaper said. According to the report, the meeting took place on 18 June.

The report said Kiev requested the release of a number of Chechen and Georgian militants being held in HTS prisons. In recent years, HTS began rooting out foreign fighters from its ranks, as well as those belonging to other armed opposition groups in northern Syria.

The newspaper added that in exchange for the release of the fighters – who Kiev plans to enlist in the fight against Russian forces – Ukraine offered 75 drones to HTS.

Aydinlik goes on to cite Kurdish reports as saying that “HTS accepted the conditions … and some radical figures were released from their prisons,” adding that “75 [Ukrainian] drones were handed over” to the extremist faction. It does note, however, that no further information or images have emerged to confirm this.

The report also says that Ukraine has been working with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Syria “to conduct covert operations against Russian soldiers in Syria.”

Over the past two years, there have been numerous reports of HTS and ISIS militants being sent to fight Russia in Ukraine.

“The Kiev regime has been in contact with terrorists for a long time, and Ukrainian authorities themselves have already become an international terrorist group,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in response to the Turkish newspaper.

In July 2022, Sputnik cited a source as saying that the CIA was recruiting ISIS fighters and training them in preparation for deployment to Ukraine. The outlet had reported months earlier that scores of HTS fighters were being released from prisons in Idlib to be sent to the Ukrainian battlefield.

Before these reports started emerging, Syria’s ambassador to Russia, Bashar al-Jaafari, said, “We, as a state, have evidence that the US military in Syria is transferring terrorists from one place to another, especially members of ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra [HTS] … So, one should not be surprised, and we do not exclude, that tomorrow ISIS terrorists will be sent to Ukraine.”

September 10, 2024 Posted by | Militarism, War Crimes | , , , , | Leave a comment

Kiev Uses Israeli, Turkish Cluster Munitions Against Russia – Cluster Munition Coalition

Sputnik – 10.09.2024

MOSCOW – The Ukrainian armed forces use cluster munitions from Turkiye and Israel in conflict with Russia, according to the 2024 report released by the Cluster Munition Coalition on Monday.

“Israeli-made or copied M971 120mm cluster munition mortar projectiles were photographed in the possession of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in December 2022. Israel originally produced this type of cluster munition, but it is not known how or from whom Ukraine acquired it,” the report said.

It is added that Turkish and Ukrainian high ranking government officials had denied US media reports of January 2023 stating that Turkiye had transferred cluster munitions to Ukraine in November 2022.

However, a photo posted on social media in August 2023 showed the 155mm M483A1 dual-purpose improved conventional munitions produced by Turkiye being used in Ukraine, the report said, adding that Turkish officials denied providing cluster munitions to Ukraine.

Ukraine might also use cluster munitions from Poland, the coalition added.

International Campaign to Ban Landmines – Cluster Munition Coalition (ICBL-CMC) is a global network of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) based in Geneva, Switzerland, that promotes adherence to and implementation of the treaties banning landmines and cluster munition.

September 10, 2024 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, War Crimes | , , , | Leave a comment

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