Aletho News


The AngloZionist Empire vs Iran: a discussion of the recent events

The Saker | January 9, 2020

First, since we now have more reliable data about what happened, let me recap a few key points:

  1. It is has now become pretty clear that Iran took several steps to make sure that the US would know when and where the strikes would happen. Specifically, Iran warned the Iraqi government and the Swiss diplomats who represent US interests in Iran.
  2. Yet, at the same time, Iran issued the strongest threat it could possibly issue: it told the US that *any* counter-strike aimed at Iran would result in a strong Iranian attack on Israel.
  3. The US quite clearly took the decision not to retaliate and to “forget” Trump’s promise to strike at 54 Iranian targets. I want to stress here that this was the correct decision under these circumstances.
  4. It also appears that the Iranians were able to somehow retrofit some kind of terminal guidance capability on missiles which originally lacked it.
  5. The level or precision of the strikes was absolutely superb and quite amazing.
  6. Trump declared that Iran decided to stand down and that the US had prevailed. This notion is, of course, prima facie ridiculous, but not for folks getting their news from the corporate media.
  7. The Iranians declared that this specific strike was now over, but immediately added that this was only a first measure and that others would follow.

Next, I want to share a few interesting photos with you.

First, here is a photo of the base following the strikes sent to me by a friend:

Here is what my friend added:

The key idea is really simple and understandable for anybody who has thought about statistics (even in an everyday context). In number terms, it’s almost like rolling dice and getting a 6 three times in a row, because the probability of rolling a 6 with an ideal dice is 16.67% (and the probability to roll 3 sixes in a row is less than 1%) as opposed to roughly 18% probability for a hit on a building within the map area in the CNN screenshot (if we assume the missiles to be unguided within this area). To be even more precise, the probability for hitting 3 *different* buildings 3 times in a row is actually even slightly lower than 0.62%, as one would have to substract the area being hit from the total area covered by buildings (I ignored that for simplicity). A less than 1% probability for a one-off event like this means that it is really highly UNlikely – to use the British Skripal case expression in its inverted state – to have happened randomly, as we assumed in our hypothesis. Which means that the missiles were, indeed, guided, and guided very accurately, striking targets of less than ~50m size with a high degree of reliability (in this particular area 3/3, in others probably 1/1 as in the runway case, etc). Perhaps, some of them, not covered by the satellite images, missed the target, but it does not substantially change the high degree of accuracy that potential Iranian opponents within reach of these missiles will have to assume from now on. The people most interested in this were probably the Israelis, as they are probably the main potential target for this type of missile in the case of a future escalation.

Please note that neither my friend nor I are professional imagery analysts and that this is just something my friend shared with me in a private email and which I now want to share with you.

If any professional imagery analyst could either confirm/refute my friend’s conclusions, I would be most grateful.

Next, I want to share with you the following image which shows Iranian IRGC General Ali Amir Hajizadeh reviewing results of recent Iranian missile strikes on Ain al-Assad airbase in Iraq during a press conference:

Clearly, the Iranians are very proud of their capability to conduct true precision strikes with an accuracy every bit as good as any Russian and/or US missile.

Finally, check out this image of the Iranian general making a press conference in front of a very interesting row of flags:

These flags include the following: The Iranian flag, the IRGC flag, the flag of IRGC’s Aerospace Force, the flag of the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthi Ansarullah flag, the flag of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), the Palestinian Hamas, the Afghan Liwa Fatemiyoun and the Pakistani Liwa Zainebiyoun

I find this very interesting: when Trump (or any other US politician) makes a solemn pronouncement, he typically has a number of aides, advisors, generals, Congressmen or Senators, etc. This is supposed the show the determination, resolve and unity of Uncle Shmuel, especially when Uncle Shmuel does something illegal or immoral.

The Iranian show of unity does not show more Iranians, they show the unity of all the forces in the Middle-East who have now officially united and whose goal is clear and very official: kick Uncle Shmuel out of the Middle-East.

You tell me which you find more impressive!

Next, the issue of casualties. Frankly, and while this is only my best guess, I do not believe the Iranian official casualty figures. Why? Well, first the Iranians did not try to maximize casualties (more about that option below), and they informed the US by several back-channels. But even if they had not, while the performance of the Patriot missile is pretty awful, the US does have a lot of top of the line technical intelligence means which would allow them to first detect the launch of the missiles from Iran and then to calculate their ballistic trajectory. As far as I know, now I might be wrong here, Iranian missiles do not have terminal maneuvering capability (which is different from terminal guidance). I can’t image why US commanders could not announce a incoming missile alert and then get all the local personnel into shelters. Again, I might be missing something, so if any reader can correct me, I would be grateful.

So what happened, really?

Here are a few of my current working hypotheses:

1) BOTH the USA and Iran don’t want a full-scale war. But for VERY different reasons:

  • The US probably understands that it cannot win a war against Iran.
  • The Iranians definitely understand that while the US cannot “win”, it most definitely can kill Iranians by the thousands and inflict immense damage upon the Iranian society.

2) What just took place was the single most dangerous moment since 14 April 2018 when Russia and the US came very, very close to a full-scale war. In the current situation, the US and Iran also came very, very close to a full scale war. The only reason I rank this latest crisis lower than the April 14th is that in one case we risked a planetary nuclear war whereas in this case we “only” risked a regional war which, by the way, could have seen nukes used by the US and Israel.

3) There STILL is a risk of full-scale war between the US and Iran, however, and barring a major unforeseen event, I will lower it now down from 80% to a much more tolerable 50%. Why 50%? Because Israel and the Israel Lobby will continue to push for a US attack on Iran and because while I trust the Iranians to keep their anti-US operations right below the threshold of “plausible deniability”, I cannot be sure that all Iranian allies will show similar restraint. Finally, the chances of an Israeli false flag as still sky high.

4) I expect anti-US operations to continue and even expand throughout the Middle-East. I don’t expect that these operations will be executed from Iran and I don’t expect Iranian forces to be involved, at least not officially. The Iranians know that the US has lost every single counter-insurgency war it was involved in and they know that their best chance is now to engage in all forms of asymmetrical operations.

Finally, I want to spell out what we could call the new Iranian threat.

We have to assume that Iran now has terminal guidance capability on many (most?) of its ballistic and cruise missiles and that they can destroy one specific building among many more buildings.  Now, remember the Iranian reply that it had 35 US bases within missile range? Now imagine this first one:

  • Iran fires 10-12 missile on each and every one of the 35 US bases listed and targets barracks, fuel and ammo dumps, key command posts, etc. How many casualties do you think that such a strike would result in?

Next, let’s try the same thing with Israel:

  • Iran fires 2-3 missiles but carefully aims them as Israeli air force bases, personnel barracks, industrial sites (including chemical and nuclear sites, not even necessarily military ones! Dimona anybody?), the Knesset or even Bibi’s personal residence. Can you imagine the panic in Israel?

How about the KSA?

  • Iran fires a large amount of missiles aimed at *truly* crippling the Saudi oil installations, National Guard barracks, airfields, etc. We already know what the Houthis could do with their very limited resources. Just imagine what Iran could do to the KSA (or the UAE and Kuwait) if it wanted to!

I think that the bottom line is clear: Iran can inflict unacceptable damage upon any party attacking it. Furthermore, and unlike having “a few” nukes, Iran has hundreds (or even thousands) of cruise missile and ballistic missiles, and you can bet that they are well distributed and well protected, as shown by this short video released by the IRGC and posted by the FARS news agency:

and that means that a disarming first strike against Iran is not possible.

There are two basic ways to respond to an attack: denial and punishment. In the first case, you have the means to deny your enemy his attack, this is what happened when the Syrians intercepted almost all the cruise missiles fired by the US. Punishment is when you cannot prevent an enemy attack, but you do have the means to inflict unacceptable damage in retaliation.

The key notion here is “unacceptable damage”.

What do you think constitutes “unacceptable damage” to the (terminally hedonistic) Israelis?

What do you think would be “unacceptable damage” to the KSA, or the world markets (especially oil)?

What about “unacceptable damage” in terms of losses for CENTCOM?

And, finally, what do you think “unacceptable damage” means to the Iranians?

There is such a huge asymmetry in how the parties to this conflict see “unacceptable damage” that it largely compensates for the asymmetry in force. Yes, sure, the US+Israel are more powerful than Iran (well, not Israel really, but Israel hiding behind the back of the US forces) but Iran is far more capable of absorbing devastating attacks than either the US or Israel.

Finally, in my last post I offered a definition of what constitutes success or failure for Iran: “anything which makes it easier for the US to remain in the Middle-East is a victory for the Empire and anything which makes it harder for the US to remain in the Middle-East is a victory for the rest of the planet.

At this point my personal opinion is that the way the Iranians conducted their first anti-Empire operation is nothing short of brilliant: they achieved a truly phenomenal result with very little means and, most importantly, without forcing the Empire to counter-attack.

Has the US-Iran war really begun? Yes, I think so. In fact, it began in 1979, but now it has reached a qualitatively new level. The outcome of that war is absolutely evident to me. The cost, however, is not.

This war has relatively cooled down, but that is an illusion and we should most definitely not take our eyes off the situation in the Middle-East: expect the initiation of asymmetrical anti-US operations very soon.

January 10, 2020 - Posted by | Illegal Occupation, Timeless or most popular | , ,


  1. First of all…it was 52 targets in Iran Trump mentioned. Not sure why ‘Christian’ saker didn’t mentioned that instead of 54…Perhaps he’s unaware of the 52 cards in the deck p.o.v.?🤣🎶

    Perhaps I am unaware of the the 2 ‘Jokers’ p.o.v.? Well, it was a terrific movie!🔥

    The dumb part saker missed is this: Trump deliberately did this😎

    Proof? Well, Trump recently outlawed slavery & since Iran still partakes in the global slave trade economy (Why else would they force women to wear hijabs?) ~ it was neccessary to attempt to expose Trump’s weakness…& failed miserably🎯

    Sample of Zionist owned Akismet issues:

    Thursday, January 2, 2020

    Mr. Trump’s National Slavery and Human Trafficking Prevention Proclamation

    By Anna Von Reitz


    Please note that this Proclamation is issued as “President of the United States of America” —- the British Territorial Government, not as “President of the United States” —- the Roman Municipal United States Government,  which has always practiced slavery and enriched itself via the sale of slaves and the peonage of indentured servants.

    Savor the view:  Nancy Pelosi, priestess of the Roman Cult, impeaching Donald Trump for his “failure” as CEO of the UNITED STATES, INC.,  to support the practice of human slavery and human trafficking —- one of the main sources of profit for the Municipal Government Corporation?  

    That’s what is really going on here.  That, and a frantic effort to cover their butts for abuse of their offices for private gain.

    Trump isn’t supporting their criminal profit-making operations and is bucking against “The Declaration of Interdependence of the Governments in The United States” that has had both the Territorial United States Government and the Municipal United States Government colluding together to fleece all of us since 1937.

    Boy, howdy….. 

    Imagine the day when all the colored people and working class people in this country wake up and realize that its the Democrats—their supposed champions—- that have been keeping them down?

    That Nancy and Chuckie and Harry have literally been offering them and their labor for sale to the highest bidder—-and profiting themselves and their venal Municipal “Government” Corporation from it?   Ever since the Civil War Era?

    Yes, indeed, and that day is fast coming.  All it takes is a few hearty individuals to start looking deep at voting records and legislation promoted by the “Democratic Party” and the Big Lie will be exposed, like the giant manure pile it is.

    Imagine the day when all the “Roman Catholics” fully realize what the “Roman” part of that means?  

    When all these good people realize that the so-called “Roman” Church is a separate, venal, pagan “religion” that has been co-existing under the same roof with the Christian Catholic Church ever since the Council of Nicea—- will they make “Hell” pay for it?

    When they realize that their Baptismal Certificates have been bought and sold just like the Birth Certificates?

    (I don’t dare post the website for Zionist owned Akismet doesn’t like it here💤🎶)


    Comment by Leland Roth | January 10, 2020 | Reply

  2. A persuasive analysis. There’s hope yet, nil desperandum!

    Liked by 1 person

    Comment by traducteur | January 10, 2020 | Reply

  3. Also…about that Ukrainian airline that was shot down in Iran…I say Israeli ongoing Stuxnet capabilities did it!

    Ex NSA asset Jim Stone ~ who Zionist Akismet doesn’t like much ~ wrote this on it today:

    Iran is claiming the missile videos of the Ukraine shoot down are psy opsThat proves they did it. Please note that the video I found is not the same as what the MSM is using and that it shows the entire sequence, from the second missile impact to crash. You can refute the videos the MSM is using, you can’t refute the one I found, and it is exactly the type of video I said ought to exist if Iran shot it down.

    In the video I found, you can see the missile plume that is white, vanish when the missile reaches the plane which is not visible and not on fire and be immediately replaced by yellow flame from burning jet fuel. The plane then flames to the ground and crashes. It is obvious what is going on in the video I posted, Iran can’t back out of it and the fact they are trying to proves they did it. If they did not do it, they’d be screaming about a missile shoot down by a missile that was not theirs. They are looking AWFUL now.


    Iran is handling the crash site the same way the FED handled 911They are doing the cleanup with bulldozers. What???Last night I found the video I was looking for, which proved Iran shot it down. It was not the one CNN and others used, because the one they used did not tell the whole story. Now they are doing what should be a forensic cleanup with bulldozers. That says it all. That does not “pretty much” say it all, it SAYS IT ALL.

    Ok, so it was not a stealth aircraft at the site shooting it down. It was likely not Hillary either, unless she chatted Iran into doing it for Ukraine cleanup and I doubt that. There was a hoaxed missile debris post that had me going even more toward a stealth aircraft shooting it down, but with the current missile video that shows the entire process, from impact to crash something I said should exist if Iran shot it down – now that there is that video it is proven Iran is guilty in this.

    Iran fired two missiles. The first missile hit likely disabled the aircraft but did not set it on fire. The second missile hit (which is the truly incriminating one) shows the aircraft bursting into flames when hit, and burning to the ground. I think the first one would have crashed it anyway though.

    So it is now confirmed Iran shot the plane down, and they are behaving VERY BADLY, as badly as the U.S. government did with 911 and the Navy did with TWA 800. That’s not good, if we don’t get a full confession out of Iran for doing this, I’ll be far less than impressed. 

    IRAN DID SHOOT THE PLANE DOWN: I FOUND A VIDEO THAT PROVES A SAM TOOK DOWN THE UKRANIAN AIRLINER, AND IT IS NOT WHAT CNN IS USING. This one actually shows a missile nail the plane, which immediately bursts into flames. IT IS HERE.CNN and the rest of the MSM are posting a different missile strike than this. This is the one that caused the fireball.


    Comment by Leland Roth | January 10, 2020 | Reply

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