Iran submits response to US plan, sets terms for war’s end: Tasnim
Al Mayadeen | March 26, 2026
An informed source told Tasnim on Thursday that Iran has delivered its response to a 15-point proposal put forward by the United States, transmitting its position through intermediaries on Wednesday night. Tehran is now awaiting a reply.
According to the source, Iran’s response sets out a series of conditions tied to any potential end to the war. These include an immediate halt to assassination operations, the establishment of binding guarantees to prevent a renewed aggression, and the provision of clearly defined compensation and reparations. The response also calls for a comprehensive cessation of hostilities across all fronts, extending to all resistance groups involved in the confrontation throughout the region.
The source further stressed that Iran considers its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz to be a natural and legal right that will remain in place. This control, the source indicated, is viewed as a mechanism to ensure the implementation of any commitments made by the other side and must be formally acknowledged.
These positions, the source added, are separate from the demands previously raised during the second round of nuclear negotiations held in Geneva shortly before the US-Israeli war that began in February.
The source also cast doubt on Washington’s stated intentions regarding negotiations, describing them as part of a “third deception” effort. According to the source, the United States is pursuing multiple objectives under the cover of diplomacy: presenting a peaceful image to the international community, maintaining lower global oil prices, and gaining time to prepare for further military aggressions, including a potential ground operation in southern Iran.
Reflecting on previous engagements, the source said Iran now holds “complete doubts” about the United States’ willingness to negotiate in good faith. The source argued that both during the 12-day war in June 2025 and the current war, the United States initiated hostilities while talks were ongoing, suggesting that renewed diplomatic efforts may similarly serve as a pretext for further escalation. Analysts suggest that there is no need to call on Iran to admit a certain reality, if, as suggested, it was already a reality in the first place.
War exposes US limits
Iran’s response comes as the war on the country enters its fourth week, after the United States and “Israel” launched coordinated attacks targeting the country’s leadership, civilian infrastructure, and military capabilities, prompting sustained Iranian retaliatory operations across the region.
The consequences of this aggression have extended far beyond the battlefield. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery through which roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies pass, have not only sent shockwaves through energy markets but also exposed the limits of US power in the region.
Despite its military presence, Washington has struggled to secure a chokepoint central to the global economy following its aggression, while Iran has shown it can impose costs that reverberate through oil prices, inflation, financial markets, and allied capitals, undermining the image of a US-led order able to guarantee stability.
Amid these developments, the United States has been working at countering Iran’s retaliation following the aggression and shaping the war’s outcome on terms favorable to Washington to no avail.
Tehran has categorically rejected negotiating under such conditions. Iranian officials say recent US proposals, including a reported multi-point plan conveyed through intermediaries, are unrealistic and designed to force strategic concessions while the war continues.
According to Tehran officials, Washington and “Israel”, having initiated the aggression, have no standing to dictate its conclusion. Authorities insist the war will end only on Iran’s terms, including a full cessation of aggression, guarantees against renewed attacks, and recognition of Iran’s sovereignty.
Trump threatens Iran
On Wednesday, the White House openly threatened further escalation against Iran, warning that the US is prepared to intensify its attacks unless Tehran accepts Washington’s terms.
“The President’s preference is always peace. There does not need to be any more death and destruction. But if Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment, if they fail to understand that they have been defeated militarily … President Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before,” Leavitt told reporters.
Iran’s continued retaliatory strikes, however, contradicts Washington’s claim of “defeat,” with officials announcing the 82nd wave of retaliatory strikes targeting US and Israeli assets across the region, thus indicating that Tehran’s operational capacity remains intact.
US vs Iran: Kharg Island Talk — Bluff or Escalation? Ex-Military Officer Weighs In

Yellow sulphur, a byproduct of petrochemical refinement, contrasts with the blue sea at Kharg Island, Iran.
Sputnik – 26.03.2026
“An operation towards Kharg Island might happen, but it might as well be a smokescreen or a way for the US to put pressure on Iran,” ex-Swedish army officer and defense politician Mikael Valtersson tells Sputnik, commenting on reports about a possible US ground operation against the Islamic Republic.
News outlets earlier reported that the Pentagon was preparing to send about 2,000 soldiers from the US army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.
“This might be an attempt to pressure Iran towards negotiations,” Valtersson points out.
“The problem with such a strategy is that Iran knows that Trump is desperate to get lower oil prices and a better world, especially the US economy,” Valtersson says, adding that “therefore such an attack is unlikely, since the loss of Iranian oil export and a potential long-term loss of oil production in the Gulf States after retaliatory strikes from Iran would worsen the energy crisis both in the short and long term.”
He notes that all talk about an attack on Kharg Island might also be a smokescreen and an attempt to divert Iranian defensive capabilities from the Strait of Hormuz, which is also very hard to achieve, since Iran has the capacity to defend both areas simultaneously. “And at the same time, it is also very hard to move Iranian military assets without getting them destroyed by US or Israeli air power,” he pointed out.
“One thing is sure, it wouldn’t do anything to open the Hormuz strait. It would of course hit Iranian oil exports if US forces took control of Kharg, but that would also increase oil prices even more,” the former Swedish army officer points out.
In conclusion, he suggests that the most likely scenario is the United States attempting to ramp up pressure on Iran. In doing so, it underestimates Iranian capabilities and, in effect, prepares for a highly risky military operation—one that could ultimately result in both a military and a media defeat for the US. “Even a tactical victory on the ground would probably result in a strategic failure for the United States,” Valterson maintains.
Zelensky unnecessarily involves Ukraine in the Middle East crisis
By Ahmed Adel | March 26, 2026
Unlike European countries and other NATO allies staying out of the Middle East conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, Ukraine—already short on troops and military strength—has sent 201 drone specialists to support the war effort against the Islamic Republic. This decision by the Kiev regime comes despite the difficulties Ukraine faces in the conflict against Russia on various tactical fronts and ends up causing embarrassment between the European bloc and the US, which has received little practical support from Western allies in its war effort against Iran.
It also raises questions about how a country reliant on European funding, which even campaigns to recruit foreigners due to a shortage of personnel, can become involved in a distant conflict. This demonstrates that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has no interest in ending the conflict in his own country and aims to win favor with the US by becoming entangled in the Persian Gulf quagmire, so the war in Eastern Europe can continue.
The limited European involvement in the war against Iran reveals a divide in the West over political views and cooperation, as well as the fact that allied ties are weaker than they seem. This trend toward political and strategic distancing within the Western bloc has been ongoing for quite some time, including the US questioning the link between European spending and NATO, and even the European Union stepping back in the Ukraine peace talks. As a result, the division highlights notable differences in perceptions.
Zelensky’s attitude is even more internally contradictory because Ukraine cannot sustain its own troops, and by becoming involved in the Middle Eastern conflict and decentralizing military efforts, more internal obstacles will arise. The Ukrainian president’s actions appear populist since Ukraine lacks enough military resources and is instead using what little it has to support the US and Israel in a conflict where it has no direct stake.
Additionally, this raises questions about whether Ukrainians can currently be involved in the Middle East, given that they are facing a serious internal crisis.
Ukrainian involvement in the US-Israeli operation against Tehran could spark domestic unrest, including growing opposition to Zelensky across different parts of society and among various local political groups. Ukrainians do not want their men dying thousands of kilometres away from home.
Aside from the possibility of reduced military aid to Ukraine, this could leave the population feeling more exhausted about the options for continuing the conflict with Russia. At the same time, there is already a disconnect between the military and Zelensky.
Despite getting more aid from Europe, the Ukrainians are trying to negotiate for more support from the US by demonstrating their loyalty. This marks a historic moment in the relationship between Washington and Kiev.
Historically, since gaining independence, Ukraine has consistently allied itself with the US in various conflicts that emerged after the 1990s, such as in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the current Gulf conflict, there is a similar pattern: right now, Zelensky is attempting to build political capital with the Trump administration by demonstrating support, but in reality, Kiev has little to gain.
Earlier this month, just days into the war with Iran, Western media reported that Russia provided Iran with information that could help it strike American targets, with one US official telling MS NOW, “Russia is providing intelligence help to Iran.”
In a separate article published on March 23, MS NOW reported that “Ukraine’s military intelligence has ‘irrefutable’ evidence that Russia has provided intelligence to the Iranian regime, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on X today. ‘Russia is using its own signals intelligence and electronic intelligence capabilities, as well as part of the data obtained through cooperation with partners in the Middle East,’ Zelensky said, citing a report from Ukrainian Chief of Defense Intelligence Oleh Ivashchenko.”
The outlet also highlighted that “Ukraine has a vested interest in convincing the United States that Russia is playing a direct role in helping Iran during the war,” believing this would prompt the White House to take a closer look at the evidence from Kiev. However, as the article says, it appears that US President Donald Trump does not care.
It is recalled that in an interview with Fox News earlier this month, Trump said Russia “might be” assisting Iran, but added that the US has assisted Ukraine.
“You know, it’s like, hey, they do it and we do it, in all fairness,” Trump said. “They do it and we do it.”
Days later, he went further, telling the Financial Times, in reference to Russia, “It’s hard to say, ‘You’re targeting us, but we’ve been helping Ukraine.’”
Although Zelensky may have “irrefutable” military intelligence that Russia is assisting Iran, the evidence will not have the impact he hopes it will to rally American support behind Ukraine again, just as deploying drone specialists to assist in the war against Iran will not.
Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
Canada, the U.S., and NATO: the inescapable trap
By Lucas Leiroz | Strategic Culture Foundation | March 25, 2026
The recent decision by the Canadian government to significantly expand its military presence in the Arctic reveals far more than a simple concern with territorial sovereignty. In reality, it reflects a deeper structural crisis: the growing instability within the Western bloc itself and the weakening of relations among historic allies.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced a multibillion-dollar plan to expand military infrastructure in the country’s north, including airfields, operational bases, and logistical centers capable of sustaining year-round operations. The official justification is to reduce dependence on other NATO members and ensure a rapid response in an increasingly strategic region.
However, this narrative does not withstand more critical scrutiny. Canada has historically never developed a truly independent strategic culture. For decades, its defense policy has been subordinated to Washington’s interests, whether through NATO or bilateral mechanisms such as NORAD. Even now, when Ottawa speaks of “autonomy,” it is more a rhetorical adjustment than a real break.
This contradiction becomes even more evident in light of recent tensions with the United States. Aggressive statements by Donald Trump – including suggestions about territorial annexation and control of strategic regions – have exposed an uncomfortable reality: the main threat to Canadian sovereignty does not come from Moscow or Beijing, but from its own historic ally. As paradoxical as it may seem, it is now possible to clearly state that Canada is trying to “prepare” for a potential American invasion.
Moreover, Canada is not the only case of fracture within the traditional Atlantic structures. The situation involving Greenland is particularly illustrative. Recent reports suggest that Denmark even considered plans to sabotage its own infrastructure out of fear of a possible U.S. military intervention. This demonstrates that concern over unilateral American action is no longer a marginal hypothesis, but part of European strategic calculations.
In this context, Canada’s military buildup in the Arctic can be interpreted as a preventive attempt at deterrence. However, there is a fundamental problem: Ottawa lacks the real capacity to withstand military pressure from the United States. Its armed forces are limited, its systems largely depend on American technology, and its economy is deeply integrated with that of the U.S. In practical terms, this is an unavoidable asymmetry.
Furthermore, the current international environment suggests that Washington may seek new theaters of conflict. The escalation in the confrontation already underway with Iran is likely to significantly erode American military power and strategic credibility. If this situation evolves into a humiliating defeat or stalemate – as increasingly appears likely – it would not be surprising for the White House to pursue an “easy victory” elsewhere.
This is where Canada – and Greenland – enter the picture. Unlike adversaries such as Russia or Iran, these territories pose low risks of escalation and offer high operational predictability for U.S. forces. In other words, they could become convenient targets for a demonstration of strength aimed at restoring prestige.
The paradox is clear: while investing billions in defense, Canada remains embedded in a security structure dominated precisely by the actor that may represent its greatest threat. This contradiction exposes the fragility of NATO as an alliance. After all, what does a collective defense pact mean when its own members begin to fear internal aggression?
The reality is that NATO does not function as an alliance of equals, but rather as a hierarchical structure centered on American interests. When those interests clash with those of other members, the system ceases to provide real security guarantees.
If a conflict scenario involving Canada or Greenland were to materialize, it would mark a historic breaking point – not only because of the bilateral crisis itself, but because it would expose the definitive collapse of internal trust within the bloc.
Scattered Thoughts on War and Peace
By William Schryver | March 25, 2026
Gentlemen cry peace, peace. But there is no peace. The war has barely begun.
Though its position is untenable, the empire cannot slink away now.
As things stand, Iran et al. have won an overwhelming strategic victory. One that cannot be undone.
And everyone that matters in the world knows this to be true.
That said, a great many people have persuaded themselves that it is the mighty United States military that has achieved an overwhelming victory, and that the Iranians are an utterly “obliterated” foe.
And yet the Iranian missiles and drones keep their schedule, with only a fraction of the opposition they encountered in early March.
Israel — that vulnerable speck of a country — is getting pounded. Hard.
US/Israel air defenses have been reduced to a skeleton shambles.
The impressive Iranian defeat of US/Israeli radar capabilities is arguably the single most notable development so far in this war.
Meanwhile, the count of American manned aircraft downed by “technical problems” continues to grow, and Iran is shooting down more cruise missiles than they did early on.
Speaking of skeleton shambles, all the US bases in the region have been systematically degraded — some more than most.
The US Fifth Fleet has been effectively evicted from the Persian Gulf, and they won’t be coming back.
The USS Poopy Gerry, flagship of the US Navy, has now managed to limp back to Souda Bay to tally the damages, and determine whether or not she can make it all the way back to Norfolk without some tug boats standing by.
Watch and see: they’ll boldly claim they will have her “ready for action” in 18 months or so. But they won’t. And sometime in about 2030, an obscure Pentagon press release will announce that the star-crossed USS Gerald R. Ford, CVN-78, will be decommissioned, purchased by Baron Trump, and turned into a dockside casino.
Anyway, the Americans are convinced the Iranians are an easy mark to fall yet again for the “negotiation sneak attack” gambit.
I think it’s more likely the Iranians are worried the Americans will “chicken out” of their proclaimed intention to use “boots on the ground” to subdue Iran and achieve full control over the Strait of Hormuz.
I think the Iranians would like nothing more than for the US military to attempt a 10k soldier amphibious / airborne attack somewhere along the Iranian coastline — probably in conjunction with a half-dozen special forces raids at various “high-value” targets.
In any case, as two amphibious ready groups (4400 Marines) and an 82nd Airborne brigade combat team (3000 light infantry) continue to advance on the theater of battle, Washington is apparently going to send the mythically competent erstwhile invisible Vice President, the redoubtable young Achilles, JD Vance.
My sense is that Vance’s mission is an inherently disingenuous token gesture.
Vance will state the inherently unacceptable American terms; the Iranians will state theirs. Both sides will glare menacingly at each other, and fly back home.
The Iranians will continue to control Hormuz and launch drones and missiles throughout the region.
US troops will arrive on the scene, and barring some unlikely epiphany of reason, the Pentagon will launch an amphibious / airborne attack that will end in blood and ashes.
At least this is the trajectory of events as I currently perceive them to be.
Things could still go from bad to worse.
Iran Threatens to Close Red Sea to Shipping in Response to Invasion
By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | March 25, 2026
If the US invades Iran, Tehran will act through its allies in Yemen to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
“If the enemy wants to take action on land in the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our lands or to inflict costs on Iran with naval movements in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman,” an Iranian military official told the semi-official Tasnim News Agency. “We will open other fronts for them as a surprise so that their action will not only be of no benefit to them but will also double their costs.”
“The Bab al-Mandab Strait is considered one of the world’s strategic straits, and Iran has both the will and the ability to create a completely credible threat against it.” The official continued, “Therefore, if the Americans want to think of a solution for the Strait of Hormuz with stupid measures, they should be careful not to add another strait to their problems and predicaments.”
Northern Yemen is controlled by Ansar Allah, who are allied with Iran. So far, Sanaa has not intervened in the war that is raging across the Middle East.
Ansar Allah has proven the military capability to close the Red Sea to shipping and also to fight the American military. In response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza, Sanaa closed the Bab al-Mandab Strait to US and Israeli-linked shipping.
Both Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump attempted to break the blockade with massive bombing campaigns in Yemen. However, Ansar Allad was able to maintain the blockade while attacking Israel and US warships in the region with missiles and drones.
If Ansar Allah elects to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, it will add to the global economic crisis that was caused by the US and Israeli war against Iran. Since the surprise attack by the US and Israel on February 28, Tehran has significantly limited shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranian threat comes as the US is moving forces to the Middle East that could be involved in ground operations inside Iran.
Iran warns US: Do not call your retreat an agreement
Press TV – March 25, 2026
Spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari, says the strategic power that the enemy boasted about has “turned into a strategic defeat.”
“If the self-proclaimed superpower of the world could have escaped this predicament, it would have done so by now. Do not call your defeat an agreement,” he said on Wednesday.
This comes as US President Donald Trump backed away from his 48-hour ultimatum to strike Iran’s power plants after the Islamic Republic warned that all energy and power installations in the region would be targeted in retaliation.
Trump claimed in a post on his Truth Social media platform that the US and Iran have had “very good and constructive conversations over the past two days regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in [West Asia].”
A source familiar with internal discussions in Tehran said Monday that there has been no official contact between Tehran and Washington.
“The era of your promises is over. Today, there are only two fronts in the world: truth and falsehood. And every freedom-seeking pursuer of truth will not be deceived by your media waves,” Zolfaqari said.
The spokesman further questioned the extent of internal divisions among enemies, asking sarcastically, “Has the level of your infighting reached the point of negotiating with yourselves?”
Zolfaqari also delivered a stark assessment of regional economic prospects, asserting that neither past levels of US investments in the region nor previous energy and oil prices would return.
“Stability in the region is ensured by the powerful hand of our armed forces,” the spokesman said. “Stability through [our] power.”
He also made clear that no previous state of affairs would return unless “the very thought of taking [military] action against the Iranian nation is completely erased from your vile minds.”
“Our first and last word from day one has been, is, and will be: someone like us will not come to terms with someone like you—not now, and not ever,” he further said.
Almost 400 Ukrainian drones downed over Russia in single night – MOD
RT | March 25, 2026
A total of 389 Ukrainian drones have been shot down by air defenses over Russian territory overnight, the Defense Ministry in Moscow reported on Wednesday morning.
Incoming UAVs were intercepted and destroyed across 14 regions in the western part of the country, as well as Crimea.
Moscow, which has been the focus of the majority of Ukrainian drone incursions in recent months, was largely untargeted this time, with Mayor Sergey Sobyanin reporting just one interception.
However, an unusually large number of UAVs were shot down in Leningrad Region, surrounding Russia’s second largest city, St Petersburg. Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko said at least 56 drones were destroyed.
The raid resulted in a blaze in the port area of Ust-Luga, Drozdenko wrote on Telegram. The roof of a residential building was also damaged in the city of Vyborg, he added.
There were no injuries among civilians in the region, according to the governor.
St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport was also forced to temporarily halt flights due to the drone incursions.
In Bryansk Region, which borders Ukraine, the number of intercepted UAVs reached 113, Governor Aleksandr Bogomaz said.
Ukrainian drone raids on Russia have intensified since mid-March, with Kiev deploying hundreds of fixed-wing UAVs on a daily basis, targeting critical infrastructure, manufacturing facilities, and residential areas.
Russian have officials described the aerial incursions as desperate “terrorist attacks” meant to compensate for the setbacks Kiev’s military has been suffering on the battlefield.
Moscow has retaliated with a long-range strike campaign of its own, targeting dual-use infrastructure, including power grid facilities and military sites in Ukraine with missiles and drones. Russia maintains that it never targets purely civilian sites.
US has 2 months of rare earths left to replenish weapons amid Iran war: Report
Press TV – March 24, 2026
The United States has only two months’ worth of rare earth elements critically important in the manufacturing of modern weaponry amid its joint aggression with the Israeli regime on Iran, a report says.
Oil Price.com, citing data from South China Morning Post and Reuters, reported that the US involvement in the aggression against Iran, which began on February 28, has already consumed billions of dollars’ worth of missiles and precision-guided weapons, leaving Washington with low inventories of rare earth and other key materials embedded in advanced military systems.
“And it’s the 11th hour for American defense and the entire defense industry, even if it wasn’t in the middle of a war with Iran,” said the report.
The report said the US is deeply dependent on China for the supply of rare earths, leaving Beijing with some fresh leverage over Washington, with roughly three weeks until President Donald Trump’s expected visit to China.
The South China Morning Post has said in an earlier report that the heavy reliance could mean that it is ultimately China that could dictate how long US strikes on Iran can continue.
Rare earth elements are key to manufacturing missile guidance and drone propulsion to radar systems and fighter aircraft electronics.
Those weapons have been critical to US-Israeli air aggression against Iran as it has solely relied on air strikes hitting Iranian targets.
Reports have indicated that the aggression cost more than $10 billion in its first week, as both the US and Israel have been grappling with barrages of missiles and drones fired by Iran at their targets, prompting heavy use of their costly air defense systems.
Outlasting the Superpower: The Reasons Why Iran is Beating uhe US and Israel
By Robert Inlakesh | Palestine Chronicle | March 24, 2026
As the US-Israeli war of aggression continues to escalate and President Trump makes new threats against Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Islamic Republic and its allies are edging closer towards inflicting a historic defeat on the world’s top superpower. This is not hyperbole; instead, it can be demonstrated through the facts on the ground.
From day one of the attack on Iran, the United States and Israel have proudly claimed to have achieved enormous victories. Initially telling the public that this conflict would only last four days, we are steadily heading towards the one-month mark with no end in sight. So far, there has been no clear war goal articulated, nor is there a real excuse presented as to why it had to happen as it did.
Beyond assassinating Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, a number of other high-ranking officials, as well as striking Iranian infrastructure, there has yet to be any major blow delivered to the Islamic Republic. There is certainly nothing that could be argued to represent a strategic victory for Washington and Tel Aviv either.
In fact, Israel’s assassinations during the 12-day war, in June of 2025, actually delivered a bigger blow to the Iranian military leadership, along with killing nuclear scientists. The Israeli Mossad even succeeded in effectively sabotaging Iranian air defenses at the beginning of the war and successfully utilized a large number of agents to carry out armed action inside the country. This time, the agents appear to have been a relative non-factor, and Iran retaliated much quicker than it did during the 12-day war.
Despite this, day in and day out, US President Donald Trump and his Secretary of War Pete Hegseth continue to present to the public contradictory claims regarding how they are allegedly winning the war.
How Iran is Defeating the US Empire
The US government has repeatedly claimed that Iran’s navy is “at the bottom of the ocean,” that its air force and air defenses have been “destroyed,” while Trump himself claimed that “90% of Iran’s missiles” had been eliminated.
However, the US military itself continues to announce it is targeting more Iranian naval vessels, while the Islamic Republic itself has shown video footage of underground facilities where its naval assets are stored. The Iranian air defenses, which were allegedly destroyed according to the Trump administration, managed to intercept an F-35 fighter jet, forcing it to conduct an emergency landing, while they are shooting enemy drones out of the sky on a daily basis.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force continues to fire wave after wave of ballistic missiles, directly impacting US military facilities across the Persian Gulf and Israeli targets. It also launches its own drone swarms. In addition to the IRGC, the Iranian Armed Forces also have their own separate drone attack units that operate around the clock.
Iranian attacks, along with the support of their Iraqi allies, have now forced a full NATO withdrawal from Iraq, as US forces take round-the-clock missile and drone hits to their bases. Every US base in the Persian Gulf, Iraq, and Jordan has been damaged, in some cases entirely destroyed. Hezbollah also returned to the scene in Lebanon, stronger than ever, with its arms stockpiles replenished, managing to prevent the Israeli military from advancing in south Lebanon, all after both Tel Aviv and Washington claimed that the party had been defeated.
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier was fired upon and has been forced to retreat, out of active striking distance of Iran, as the USS Gerald R. Ford is in need of repairs. The IRGC even fired missiles at the British-US military base in Diego Garcia, revealing that they possess missiles that can strike targets at over 4,000 kilometers.
Every day or so, there is another surprise that Tehran appears to be able to pull off. What have the Israelis and Americans done in return? They bomb civilian areas, police stations, and oil storage facilities in order to create acid rain across Tehran. They also strike the openings and exits to missile bases, which are simply dug out and remain largely unaffected.
Iran has retaliated each time a new escalation is committed by either the US or Israel, whether that be against oil facilities, water desalination plants, or nuclear facilities. Tehran does not show any signs of weakness; large crowds show up in support of their government.
Because Iran is no longer exporting food during the war, the prices of goods on the shelves have actually decreased, as government subsidies are being offered, as well as free public transport.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has meant that the Persian Gulf Arab states have taken enormous economic hits, while the price of oil has skyrocketed and is having a major impact on the global economy. It is an oil crisis worse than that of 1973. Fertilizer costs, too, have increased; over 40% so far.
Things have gotten so bad that the US is now weighing lifting the sanctions on Iran in order to allow purchases of its oil, just to bring the costs down. A move that the Trump administration has tried to repackage as some kind of strategic move, but is evidently a sign of how terribly the war is going for them.
Iran’s oil production is also up to a high that hasn’t been seen in at least 46 years, meaning that since the revolution in 1979 against the US-backed Shah, birthing the Islamic Republic, the country’s production has never reached such levels. As of now, only nations that gain Iran’s permission are able to purchase or transit through the Gulf of Hormuz. In other words, they have total dominance.
Escalation Without a Plan
Donald Trump’s depictions of Iran as a nation that is defeated, without any military capabilities and with a scared remaining leadership, are the opposite of reality. If anything, it appears that the Islamic Republic is only becoming more entrenched and popular, as one would expect given that a foreign attack targeting the nation’s civilian population is ongoing.
Ebrahim Zolfaghari, the spokesman of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters (Iran’s Unified Military Command), openly mocks the US leadership, even recently stating, “Hey Trump, YOU’RE FIRED! You’re familiar with this sentence. Thank you for your attention to this matter. The Central Headquarters of Khatam al-Anbiya.”
While it is undeniable that the US and Israelis may have the technological edge, they are simply out of their depth and have no viable military strategy. As a next step, it is likely that the US could try to deploy ground forces to take over islands in the Persian Gulf, but this will change nothing even if they succeed. In all likelihood, it will be a costly endeavor that will result in little more than a photo op and fail to actually open the Strait of Hormuz.
Capturing Kharg Island from Iran will not stop Iran from blocking ships from transiting the Persian Gulf; that’s simply not how things work. Tehran may even decide to just allow the US to take it over, then hit it relentlessly with missiles and drones. As for the Strait of Hormuz, as long as Iran has missiles capable of sinking ships and mines that can do the same, it remains closed.
Which brings us to the conclusion: Iran is defeating the United States. Yet, it is not Washington that is making its own decisions; it is clearly under the control of policymakers in Tel Aviv. This is not a war for the United States’ interests—it is a war for Israel’s interests.
The Israeli calculation, as I have been writing about here for Palestine Chronicle for months, is that if they manage to inflict enough damage to Iran’s civil infrastructure—targeting electricity, agriculture, its industrial capacity, oil and gas, water, etc.—then it believes it can weaken the government in the long term. It is a Syrian regime-change tactic, but it is ultimately a costly gamble that doesn’t appear to be working right now. In Syria, the regime change didn’t come during the war; it happened due to the sanctions and lasting devastation to the country.
Israel knows that it is only the United States military that can deliver blows harsh enough to have a chance at crippling Iran in the long run, so it has used its puppet—Donald Trump—to commit to a war that no past administration would dare attempt. The US president is compromised and is willing to drag his nation, as well as the entire West, down in order to please Israel.
This war destroys the US military’s power projection, cripples its role in West Asia, demonstrates it is a liability to allies, while representing a victory for its two top enemies, Russia and China. Washington is also now draining its military stockpiles, compromising its military readiness, should it seek to engage in hostilities with either Moscow or Beijing. Although predicting the future is impossible, as of right now, this is shaping up to be the most disastrous US war, perhaps in its history.
– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle.
Is Netanyahu’s war gamble threatening the future of ‘Israel’?: FT
Al Mayadeen | March 24, 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s push toward war on Iran has intensified regional tensions, with the aggression reportedly enjoying overwhelming public backing in “Israel”, as more than 80% of the Israeli public supported the decision to launch the attacks on Tehran.
Yet, Gideon Rachman argues in The Financial Times that the consequences of this escalation are far from the decisive outcome that was anticipated. Rather than delivering a quick resolution, the war has expanded in scope and complexity, raising new risks for both military personnel and settlers.
Rachman notes that developments such as disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and missile strikes inside “Israel” highlight how the war is evolving in unpredictable ways, undermining expectations of a swift and controlled campaign.
‘Israel’ rapidly losing US popular support
A central pillar of “Israel’s” long-term security has been strong bipartisan support from the United States. However, recent actions, particularly the genocide in Gaza and the escalation with Iran, are eroding that foundation.
Rachman points to shifting US public opinion, noting that for the first time, more Americans express sympathy for Palestinians than for Israelis. This shift, he suggests, reflects growing concern over the humanitarian consequences of ongoing offensives and could influence future US policy.
Rachman also highlights the evolving political landscape in Washington. Within both major US parties, there is increasing debate over the scale and nature of support for “Israel”. He warns that future presidential candidates may adopt more restrictive positions, potentially reshaping the alliance.
For example, Trump’s MAGA base has been increasingly expressing anti-“Israel” sentiments, questioning the nature of bilateral relations between the United States and the Israeli regime. This phenomenon spilled into the government itself after the resignation of Joe Kent, the Trump administration’s head of counterterrorism, who said the US was pulled into the war on Iran because of “Israel”.
Military strategy vs diplomatic solutions
Netanyahu’s approach, as described by Rachman, places significant emphasis on military power as the primary means of ensuring security. However, the outcomes of recent military actions raise questions about the effectiveness of this strategy.
Despite claims of decisive victories, Hamas remains active in Gaza, and “Israel’s” aggression against Lebanon and the Resistance did not eliminate Hezbollah, leading to renewed confrontation. Similarly, attacks on Iran’s nuclear program have not produced lasting strategic gains.
Therefore, Rachman argues that diplomatic engagement remains the only viable long-term path to stability. He references views from analysts, Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of Iran research for “Israel’s” security intelligence agency, for instance, who suggests that Iran’s leadership has, at times, signalled willingness to negotiate, particularly regarding its nuclear program, opportunities that were not fully pursued.
The most pressing threat ‘Israel’ faces
According to Citrinowicz, as cited by Rachman, the most significant long-term threat facing “Israel” may not be Iran itself, but the gradual erosion of US political and military support.
This support has historically included substantial military aid, advanced defense systems, and diplomatic backing, elements that have been crucial to “Israel’s” security. However, Rachman warns that prolonged confrontation risks weakening this relationship.
If American support declines, “Israel” could face serious strategic consequences, including reduced military assistance and increased international isolation, he indicated. Such a shift would represent a major change in the geopolitical balance that has long favoured “Israel”.
Perpetual war warnings
Rachman concludes that Netanyahu’s reliance on military solutions risks leading to a cycle of perpetual war, rather than lasting security. In his view, military “victories” have repeatedly failed to translate into strategic stability.
Instead, he suggests that a combination of declining international support and ongoing conflict creates a dangerous trajectory. Without a shift toward diplomatic solutions, he warns that “Israel” may face increasing instability and a weakening of its global standing.


