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SAFE Debt Trap: Poland’s €43.7 Billion Bet on Unipolar Illusion

By Adrian Korczyński – New Eastern Outlook – March 23, 2026

For Poland—already one of NATO’s most heavily militarized economies—SAFE is therefore not merely a financial instrument but a strategic decision about how deeply the country wishes to anchor itself within the EU’s emerging defense architecture, and at what price.

Introduction: A “Turning Point” Built on Debt

In early 2026, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described Poland’s €43.7 billion request under the European Union’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme as “a turning point for the security of Poland and Europe.” The statement was vintage Tusk—confident, sweeping, and designed for a headline. Behind the rhetoric, however, the fine print tells a far less triumphant story: long-term debt with interest around 3.17%, repayment schedules stretching toward the 2070s, and procurement rules that effectively redirect part of borrowed funds into specific defense supply chains—including those involving Ukrainian producers.

SAFE, officially presented as a major European defense investment programme, allows the European Commission to raise up to €150 billion on financial markets and lend the funds to member states for military spending. The loans come with relatively favorable terms: maturities of up to 45 years and a ten-year grace period before repayment of principal begins. On paper, the arrangement appears manageable. In practice, it represents a profound long-term commitment. Today’s political leaders can borrow vast sums for weapons systems, drones, and fortifications, while the financial burden will be carried by taxpayers decades into the future.

For Poland—already one of NATO’s most heavily militarized economies—SAFE is therefore not merely a financial instrument but a strategic decision about how deeply the country wishes to anchor itself within the EU’s emerging defense architecture, and at what price.

SAFE: The EU’s New Security Architecture

The SAFE programme was introduced by Brussels in late 2025 as part of a broader effort to strengthen Europe’s defense industrial base in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. The mechanism is relatively straightforward. The European Commission raises funds on capital markets and redistributes them to participating states as long-term loans earmarked strictly for defense spending. Eligible projects include weapons procurement, ammunition production, and industrial modernization within the defense sector.

Yet SAFE also contains structural conditions that significantly shape how the money can be spent. One of the most consequential provisions is the so-called 65 percent rule: at least 65 percent of components used in projects financed under SAFE must originate from the European Union, the European Economic Area, or Ukraine. In practice, this requirement reinforces specific supply chains and pushes European defense industries toward deeper integration with Ukrainian production networks.

European Commission documents openly describe this as a strategic goal. SAFE, according to the Commission, will help “deepen Ukraine’s integration into the European security ecosystem” and allow member states to purchase defense products from Ukrainian manufacturers within joint procurement frameworks. This reflects the broader process of integrating Ukraine’s wartime defense industry into Europe’s defense economy since 2022.

Poland’s €43.7 Billion Bet

Among all EU member states, Poland has emerged as the most ambitious participant in SAFE. Warsaw submitted a request worth approximately €43.7 billion, by far the largest share of the programme’s €150 billion envelope. If fully implemented, the funds would finance dozens of projects, including air-defense systems, artillery production, drones, and modernization of military infrastructure. The first tranche—roughly €6.5 billion, representing about 15 percent of the total—could arrive as early as spring 2026 once all domestic legal procedures are completed.

Prime Minister Tusk has framed the programme primarily as a financial opportunity. According to the government, SAFE offers “long-term capital without pressure on the budget today,” with borrowing costs significantly below commercial rates. Yet even under favorable terms, the sheer scale of the loan carries long-term consequences. Over several decades, total repayments could exceed €60 billion, effectively committing future governments to financial obligations extending well into the second half of the century. The issue is therefore less about immediate affordability than about the cumulative strategic and fiscal trajectory that such borrowing sets in motion.

The Fiscal Context: Poland’s Expanding Military Burden

Poland has already undertaken one of the most rapid military expansions in modern Europe. By 2026, defense spending is projected to reach approximately 4.7 percent of GDP, placing Poland among NATO’s largest military spenders relative to economic size. Major procurement contracts have been signed with the United States and South Korea, including tanks, fighter aircraft, missile systems, and advanced artillery.

At the same time, Poland has been one of Ukraine’s most significant supporters since the beginning of the war in 2022. When military aid, refugee support, and financial assistance are combined, the cumulative cost is estimated at roughly 4.9 percent of Poland’s GDP over several years. Taken together, these commitments mean that nearly one tenth of national economic output has been linked—directly or indirectly—to defense and war-related expenditures.

Against this backdrop, the addition of another €43.7 billion in long-term borrowing inevitably raises questions about fiscal priorities and sustainability. Unlike Hungary, which maintains diplomatic channels open with all parties while negotiating exemptions from EU financial guarantees, Warsaw’s rigid moralism increasingly translates into a balance sheet item: billions in interest payments for weapons that may become obsolete before the loans mature. The demographic pressures, rising housing costs, and uncertain European economic outlook only deepen the gamble.

Ukraine’s Industrial Link: Strategic Integration and Structural Risks

One of the most controversial elements of the SAFE framework is its implicit integration of Ukrainian defense industries into European procurement chains. Because the programme allows member states to purchase equipment produced in Ukraine as part of joint projects, some portion of the funds borrowed by EU governments may ultimately flow to Ukrainian manufacturers. In strategic terms, Brussels presents this as a logical extension of Europe’s security policy: strengthening Ukraine while simultaneously expanding Europe’s industrial base.

However, the policy also intersects with a persistent and widely documented problem—systemic corruption within Ukraine’s wartime economy. A notable example emerged in November 2025, when Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) uncovered a major bribery scheme within the state-owned nuclear company Energoatom. Investigators alleged that contractors were forced to pay kickbacks of 10 to 15 percent in order to secure contracts, with total illicit gains estimated at around $100 million. Although the scandal did not directly involve the SAFE programme, it reinforced concerns among European observers about the governance environment surrounding large public contracts in wartime Ukraine.

For countries borrowing tens of billions under SAFE, this raises an unavoidable question: can European auditors trace billions in loans through a wartime economy where, as recent NABU cases show, contract values can include a 15 percent “risk premium” for local intermediaries?

The Domestic Political Clash: Tusk vs. Nawrocki

Poland’s participation in SAFE has also triggered a significant domestic political dispute. Although parliament has approved legislation necessary to implement the programme, the final step requires the signature of President Karol Nawrocki. Without it, Warsaw cannot fully activate the financial mechanism needed to access the loans.

Nawrocki has expressed skepticism about the programme, arguing that the structure of SAFE risks limiting Poland’s economic sovereignty and binding national defense policy too tightly to decisions taken in Brussels. In response, he has proposed an alternative financing mechanism known informally as “SAFE 0%.” The proposal, developed with the National Bank of Poland, would mobilize roughly 185 billion zloty (about €43 billion) from the country’s foreign currency reserves and gold holdings. As Nawrocki explained: “We have a concrete, Polish, safe and sovereign alternative that will not involve any financial interest costs—this is SAFE 0%.”

Yet while the proposal removes interest payments, it does not eliminate the underlying scale of the commitment. Drawing heavily on central-bank reserves could weaken Poland’s financial buffers and limit future monetary flexibility. The dispute therefore reflects not a disagreement over the scale of defense spending, but over the method—whether the burden should take the form of long-term EU loans or internal financial restructuring, and whether either path truly accounts for the opportunity cost of locking Poland into a single geopolitical silo.

A Regional Contrast: The Visegrád Divide

Poland’s expansive participation in SAFE contrasts sharply with the more cautious stance adopted by several of its Central European neighbors. Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic have either minimized their involvement in the programme or avoided it entirely. At a European summit in late 2025, these countries also negotiated exemptions from certain financial guarantees tied to EU support packages for Ukraine.

Their governments argue that national budgets must retain greater flexibility and that European security policy should not become overly dependent on large-scale borrowing mechanisms. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó summarized this skepticism in early 2026, remarking that the European Union appeared “not prepared for peace.” Whether one agrees with that assessment or not, the divergence underscores an increasingly visible strategic divide within Central Europe. While Warsaw doubles down on loyalty to Brussels and Washington, its neighbors quietly preserve room to maneuver.

Multipolar Reality and Strategic Alignment

The debate surrounding SAFE unfolds at a moment of profound shifts in the global balance of power. Emerging economies grouped within BRICS+ now account for a rapidly expanding share of global economic output in purchasing power parity terms. Trade corridors across Eurasia continue to expand, while new financial mechanisms challenge the dominance of traditional Western institutions.

In response, many mid-sized states increasingly pursue strategies of strategic hedging—maintaining economic and diplomatic relations across multiple geopolitical blocs rather than aligning exclusively with any single center of power. Poland has chosen a different path: a deep and explicit anchoring within the Euro-Atlantic security framework. For Warsaw, geography and historical experience remain powerful arguments for such alignment. Yet the financial scale of initiatives like SAFE inevitably raises questions about how much strategic flexibility the country is willing to sacrifice in exchange for security guarantees, and whether future generations will thank today’s leaders for betting so heavily on a single vision of the world.

The Generational Question

Beyond geopolitics and fiscal policy lies a more fundamental issue: time. SAFE loans can extend for up to forty-five years, meaning that the financial consequences of today’s decisions may last until the 2070s. The immediate beneficiaries of the programme will be defense industries and military planners in the 2020s and 2030s. The final repayments, however, may fall on taxpayers decades later—many of whom were not yet born when the decisions were made.

For this reason, some economists increasingly frame the programme as an intergenerational transfer, in which present security priorities are financed by future public budgets. Whether that trade-off ultimately proves justified will depend less on today’s political narratives than on whether Europe’s security environment in the 2070s will remember, or care about, the promises made in 2026. For Poland, the gamble is not merely financial. It is a test of whether strategic rigidity can ever truly pay off in a world that increasingly rewards those who adapt, hedge, and keep their options open.

March 23, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Militarism | , , | Comments Off on SAFE Debt Trap: Poland’s €43.7 Billion Bet on Unipolar Illusion

Trump ‘stuck between a rock and a hard place’, lacks Iran war strategy: Ex-CIA chief

Press TV – March 23, 2026

A withering critique from longtime Washington insider and former top spy Leon Panetta has intensified scrutiny of US President Donald Trump’s handling of the war against Iran.

In an interview with the Guardian newspaper on Sunday, Panetta, who previously also served as the US defense secretary (now war secretary), warned that the United States finds itself ensnared in a rapidly deteriorating crisis with few viable paths forward.

He portrayed an administration led by Trump that has slipped into a precarious position after weeks of unprovoked and unjustified aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which began with the assassination of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, on February 28.

He said Trump is “stuck between a rock and a hard place” and warned that his administration’s approach projects an image of weakness on the international stage.

Panetta, a veteran of Democratic administrations spanning decades, did not hold back in his critique of the incumbent US president’s decision-making style.

He said Trump has displayed a tendency toward naivety regarding the unpredictable nature of wars, saying the president appears to operate under the belief that simply repeating assertions might make them come true.

Such conduct, Panetta noted, was more “befitting of children than of presidents.”

His remarks came as the Iranian retaliatory operations continue to inflict heavy blows on the US military infrastructure in the region, decimating radars, drones and fighter jets.

The strategic waterway of the Strait of Hormuz also remains closed to US vessels, which has led to a dramatic rise in energy prices across the world.

Drawing on a career that has included stints as CIA director, secretary of defense, and White House chief of staff, Panetta underscored that Iran’s ability to disrupt global energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has been a long-established concern within American national security circles for generations.

That long-feared contingency, he warned, is now unfolding in real time.

The former defense chief argued that the ongoing war has laid bare significant shortcomings in US strategic planning, blasting Trump for launching an unwinnable war.

According to Panetta, the most plausible exit strategy for Trump would be to claim victory and seek to disengage from the war, but that avenue appears effectively closed.

He asserted that a ceasefire remained unattainable as long as Iran maintains its stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz, describing the waterway as a potent lever of influence that Tehran now holds against its American adversary.

Efforts to rally European allies and NATO partners to help secure the strategic waterway have been met with tepid responses. Frustration over the lack of allied support has increasingly spilled into public view, with the US president launching biting criticism at the transatlantic military alliance and questioning its value in the absence of American leadership.

On the ground, Washington has thus far refrained from committing ground troops, though the deployment of Marines to the region has stoked speculation about potential escalation with far-reaching consequences for the aggressors.

March 23, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Trump ‘stuck between a rock and a hard place’, lacks Iran war strategy: Ex-CIA chief

Trump’s bombardment of fake news so far is working quite well. But where is it heading?

By Martin Jay | Strategic Culture Foundation | March 23, 2026

Trump’s latest move in Iran, to consider mobilizing a second larger tranche of troops, might be the act of a lunatic who genuinely believes there can be a positive outcome for America and Israel in the Iran War. What we may be witnessing is a new, more desperate, extreme strategy after he has come to terms that virtually all of the first strategy has ended in disastrous consequences. Certainly we can assess that he is considering such a move.

Yet despite all the hype from U.S. media, it is important to stress that Trump has not yet acted. He is looking at the possibility of a deployment of 8,000 troops with the view of taking Kharg Island in combination with an 800-mile stretch of the Iranian coastline, heavily fortified with troops and missiles aimed at both the choke point of the Straits of Hormuz and also beyond it.

Any military strategist will surmise that this idea is even more whacky than the initial plan, which, it has transpired, was carried out with no planning or assessment whatsoever.

The assumptions are simply preposterous. To take Kharg Island, it would mean that any amphibious landing would have to come from a U.S. battleship which would pass through the Straits of Hormuz. And secondly, the island itself is heavily fortified as you would expect it to be, given that it produces [transfers] most of Iran’s oil. Even if a ship could by some act of a miracle reach it, the resistance by the Iranians who would be ready and waiting would be intense and might well result in all of the U.S. marines sent there being wiped out. The present 2,200 marines who are on their way to the region from Asia are not airborne, which means they can only land by boat. This idea is madness on a level that we have never seen before, with some military experts comparing it to Gallipoli in 1915, where British, French, Russian and Australian navies lost 250,000 men as they failed over almost a year to take the peninsula — resulting in the rise to prominence of the Turkish commander at the time, Mustafa Atatürk, who finally became president of the new republic of Turkey later in 1923.

What is more likely is that Trump is panicking and constantly creating media fodder for journalists to report on, while he buys time to work out how to get out of the hellhole that he has created for himself. Practically begging allies via social media or press conferences to help gives a clue to the level of desperation. But Trump’s ability to create fake news to distract U.S. media away from the reality is impressive.

When U.S. bombers left UK bases and dropped their load over a few days on the island, this threw the spotlight on the island and created a new subject to focus on. But what U.S. journalists did not look too closely at was the impact of the bombing. All the bombers did was to put a crater exactly halfway up the runway of the main airstrip, depriving planes from landing or taking off. It was hardly a great military victory. In fact, it actually deprives the Americans themselves of landing huge air transport military aircraft there, suggesting that they have no real intention of ever taking the island.

The truth is that the snake island is just media chaff which has been thrown up in the air to cause a distraction. If we examine a number of stories in the press in recent days, in fact, there have been a number of such stories to distract journalists away from asking tougher questions to Trump.

Fake story number two: allies “supporting” Trump. Barely 48 hours after France, UK, Germany and others all sent a very quick “no” back to Trump after he asked them for help in securing the straits, it would seem they all did a U-turn. A statement which the UK government issued seemed to say that they were all ready to help Trump, which shocked many. So why wasn’t this story put on the front pages of all major UK and U.S. newspapers as an extraordinary event in itself, as a drastic change to the crisis? Because journalists were sceptical and read the small print. They also read Reuters’ sceptical interpretation of it and noticed that those world leaders didn’t take to social media and announce the new initiative to “support” Trump. This word “support” was buried in the text, but the interpretation was only in the sense that these countries — including Japan — were sympathetic to Trump, similarly to your neighbour coming to the wake of one of your loved ones, eating your sandwiches and taking your drink, but then leaving while muttering condolences — without making any contribution to the funeral expenses.

But there’s more fake news.

Fake news #3 was the Japan stunt. Almost immediately we saw the arrival of the Japanese Premier at the White House who, when getting out of her car, embraced Trump for the whole world to see. What a spectacle! But what was this hug all about? Yes, of course the Japanese needed to quickly sign an energy deal to stabilize their own economy, but the compliments that the Japanese PM paid on Trump during the press conference would have some believe that Trump’s own people wrote the script. Praising Trump as a world leader on a level that none other can match left the buffoon in the White House stumbling on his own words, with him finally blabbing out a poor taste joke about Pearl Harbour. What was behind this banal performance? Was it real?

Of course it was not. EU leaders, probably led by Sir Keir Starmer’s media experts, had no doubt staged the whole thing and prepared her speech and her behaviour, as they too are panicking, knowing only too well that Trump isolated could possibly drag America into a Vietnam-type war which could go on for years. Their reckoning was: ’We can’t support him, but let’s at least issue a statement and get the Japanese PM to give him a hug.’ All Trump needs is a hug and a few absurd compliments which would leave most Americans pushing fingers down their own throats.

But of course such vomit-inducing sycophancy can’t keep relations warm for very long.

With both American aircraft carriers far from the Straits of Hormuz now (one damaged by an Iranian missile) and no real options for Trump to turn to, to settle world oil prices and come down hard on the Iranians, he’s looking like the greatest loser America has ever had as a president. It is not inconceivable that he will send ground forces to the region if the situation gets worse. This decision is more or less taken for him as his own rationale must constantly come up with media fodder which keeps him in the news as the main story. Sending troops to the region though is not the same as sending them in, although the bombing which is now going on along Iran’s coastline would suggest that he believes U.S. marines could control and contain those Iranian military installations, which is worrying as a second colossal failure of joined-up thinking seems to be heading our way.

But what is even more worrying is the extent of how much Trump lies both to journalists in press conferences and to the American people about his victory in Iran. In a country which sometimes feels like an irony-free zone, you would think he would be more ridiculed for this, but this is not the case. The real worry here is how naïve and frankly stupid Americans are, as one option that Trump has, other than using nuclear weapons in Iran, is creating a false flag attack on U.S. home soil. Not only would that allow him to announce a ’state of war’ which would justify cancelling the midterms, but it would also force EU countries and Japan to ramp up their ’free hugs’ policy to a whole new level. Free hugs are not free, by the way.

March 23, 2026 Posted by | False Flag Terrorism, Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Trump’s bombardment of fake news so far is working quite well. But where is it heading?

Barak blasts Netanyahu: ‘Stop lying – you can’t destroy Iran’s nuclear, missile capabilities’

Press TV – March 23, 2026

Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak on Monday launched a blistering attack at the regime’s incumbent political and military leadership, slamming them for peddling “blatant” lies over the war against Iran and noting that the regime has no strategy to end the war.

In an interview with Channel 13, Barak, who also previously acted as the regime’s military chief and military affairs minister, delivered a stark assessment of the Israeli wars on Gaza, Lebanon and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“We cannot open the Strait of Hormuz, nor destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, so don’t lie to us too much,” Barak said, directly challenging the regime’s claims regarding its capacity to confront the Islamic Republic.

His remarks came as the Israeli-American war against Iran entered its 24th day with no end in sight. The war, which started with the assassination of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, and some top-ranking officials and military commanders, has failed to achieve the “regime change” agenda or to decapitate the Iranian government.

On the contrary, as experts acknowledge, Iranian armed forces have decimated Israeli military and intelligence infrastructure across the occupied territories as well as US military bases in some Persian Gulf countries as part of Operation True Promise 4.

So far, 74 waves of missile and drone operations have been successfully carried out against enemy targets, which have effectively destroyed the air defense systems.

Barak, who acted as the regime’s premier from 1999 to 2001, launched a stinging attack at the regime’s war cabinet, stressing that the political echelon lacks both the knowledge and the will to end the fighting that has failed to achieve any objectives.

“Israel at the political level doesn’t know – doesn’t know or doesn’t want – to bring the war to an end,” he said. “They don’t know how to end wars.”

He also pointed to unfulfilled promises made repeatedly by the Benjamin Netanyahu regime vis-à-vis the genocidal wars against Gaza and Lebanon.

“We are two and a half years in; Hamas is still there after they promised us six times that we were a step away from ‘total victory.’ Hezbollah is still there after they told us we threw them back decades,” he stated.

Barak also took aim at Netanyahu’s long-standing emphasis on the so-called “Iranian threat,” noting that the regime’s claims of neutralizing the danger do not align with reality.

“Iranian nuclear program and missiles are still there after they clarified to us that he [Netanyahu] removed the existential threat,” he said, shaken by the direct Iranian missile impacts across the occupied territories in the ongoing war.

The former prime minister described a systemic breakdown in trust between the regime and settlers, exacerbated by what he called deliberate withholding of information.

“Now, what is the problem? When there is no truth and no trust. We also don’t know all the details, including those of us who were deep inside these matters,” Barak said. “We don’t know what the truth is. But they shouldn’t tell us ‘the truth’ – they just shouldn’t lie to our faces in such a blatant way so that we can participate in the discussion more seriously.”

March 23, 2026 Posted by | Deception, Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism | , , , , , | Comments Off on Barak blasts Netanyahu: ‘Stop lying – you can’t destroy Iran’s nuclear, missile capabilities’

Trump backs down on Iran strikes; Tehran denies any talks

Al Mayadeen | March 23, 2026

US President Donald Trump announced Monday that he has postponed military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, claiming that Washington and Tehran have held “very good and productive conversations” over the past two days toward resolving the war.

The announcement came hours before a deadline Trump had issued on Saturday, in which he threatened that Iranian power plants would be destroyed if Tehran failed to “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping within 48 hours, prompting a swift and decisive warning by Tehran that power infrastructure feeding US bases and “Israel” in the region would be targeted.

Iran denies direct talks

After Trump’s statements, Iranian officials swiftly rejected claims of direct negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

Iran State TV, citing the Foreign Ministry, reported: “There are no talks between Tehran and Washington.”

The Foreign Ministry further characterized Trump’s remarks as an attempt to manipulate global energy markets and buy time for his military plans.

“Yes, there are initiatives from some countries in the region to de-escalate tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all such requests should be directed to Washington.”

Context: IRGC warned Trump of consequences

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement earlier today rejecting accusations by US President Donald Trump that Iran intends to target desalination facilities across the region, warning instead of reciprocal measures if Iranian infrastructure is struck.

The IRGC accused Washington of initiating the war, stating that “the aggressive American army… began the war by killing children,” saying that 180 children were killed in attacks on primary schools and that five water facilities, including a desalination plant on Qeshm Island, had already been targeted.

The statement firmly denied targeting civilian water infrastructure, asserting that “the IRGC has not carried out such actions.”

Addressing recent threats against Iranian energy infrastructure, the IRGC warned that any strike on power facilities would trigger direct retaliation.

“What we have done is declare our position: if power plants are targeted, Iran will respond by targeting the power infrastructure of the occupying entity, as well as power plants in regional states that supply electricity to US bases, in addition to economic and industrial infrastructure and energy sectors in which Americans hold shares. Without doubt, we will do so.”

The statement further added that economic and energy infrastructure linked to US interests would also be considered targets.

Emphasizing its prior restraint, the IRGC noted, “You targeted our hospitals – we did not respond in kind. You targeted relief centers – we did not respond. You targeted our schools – we did not respond. But if you target electricity, we will target electricity.”

The statement concluded with a warning that Iran would respond to any escalation “at a level that ensures deterrence,” adding that “the United States does not know our capabilities, it will see them on the battlefield.”

March 23, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, War Crimes, Wars for Israel | , , | Comments Off on Trump backs down on Iran strikes; Tehran denies any talks

Seyed M. Marandi: Total War – Attacking Nuclear Plants, Desalination & Infrastructure

Glenn Diesen | March 22, 2026

Seyed Mohammad Marandi discusses the targeting of nuclear plants, desalination plants, critical infrastructure, and the civilian population. Trump has given Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz (capitulation), otherwise the US will destroy Iran’s energy facilities. Then there will be no limits on Iran’s response, and the consequences will be global. The future of global stability will be decided over the next few days. Marandi is a professor at Tehran University and a former advisor to Iran’s Nuclear Negotiation Team.

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March 22, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, Video, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Seyed M. Marandi: Total War – Attacking Nuclear Plants, Desalination & Infrastructure

How the US-Israeli aggression against Iran is affecting the war in Ukraine

By Dmitri Kovalevich | Al Mayadeen | March 22, 2026

In the second half of March, the US and Israeli aggression against Iran is taking its toll on Ukraine. Retail stores are updating their prices daily, while the government is unable to keep gasoline prices in check through threats against sellers, as operators simply hide their product, creating artificial shortages.

Following the rapid deindustrialization that accompanied ‘independent’ Ukraine’s secession from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the only remaining productive industry in the country is agriculture, specifically, the production of grain and corn for export. Ukrainian authorities now face a harsh choice: supply fuel to agrarians at the start of this year’s planting season, or divert dwindling fuel supplies to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal, supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains the priority, in order that the proxy war by Western powers against the Russian Federation may continue.

He stated on March 1: “The war in Iran has triggered a global fuel crisis. Our key task is to supply the army. Sowing is the second priority. After that come businesses and people.”

European fuel suppliers have reduced their supplies to Ukraine in order to meet demand in their own markets. Fuel shipments from Poland have been suspended for one week, while Romania and Moldova have also temporarily halted fuel exports. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán already halted sales of diesel fuel and gasoline to Ukraine in February due to Ukraine’s disruption of the Druzhba pipeline from Russia.

As a result, Ukraine may be forced to seek fuel in more distant markets… and pay much higher prices for it. It is becoming increasingly clear that the Western imperialist powers cannot sustain two wars at once—one against Russia, the other against Iran.

Danylo Getmantsev, head of Ukraine’s legislative committee on tax policy, says that Ukraine could face serious fuel shortages as early as April if the war with Iran drags on. “According to analysts of the Ukrainian fuel market, the situation with a shortage of fuel and lubricants may arise in our country in April,” he said in early March. To counter this, Getmantsev proposes exploring opportunities to establish a strategic reserve of petroleum products in partner countries.

Andriy Gerus, head of the energy committee of the Ukrainian legislature, noted earlier in March that due to Russia’s shelling of oil depots, Ukraine has no remaining strategic fuel reserves. “Everything is operating on a just-in-time basis; there are no remaining stocks of cheaper resources, so any price change in Europe quickly translates into a price change in Ukraine.” He explains that fuel in Ukraine will always be more expensive than in Europe.

Legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky, currently in jail accused of treason, believes that due to the war against Iran, the economic situation in Ukraine has become critical, much like it was in February 2022 at the start of the war. “Society and the army are exhausted. Exchange rates, energy costs, and prices have risen. The budget deficit is widening. At the same time, uncertainty is growing,” Dubinsky explains.

Nevertheless, according to Dubinsky, officials in Kiev believe that Ukraine is seen as too important in the global game to be allowed to fail, so money for its survival as a Western vassal will be found regardless of the widespread corruption that has further overwhelmed the Ukrainian economy beginning in 2022.

Legislator Yuriy Boyko says that if oil reaches $200 per barrel, everyone will feel the impact. “In that case, the planting season will be at risk, and prices for goods will rise sharply. Ukrainians aren’t well-off to begin with, so we can’t let that happen,” the lawmaker says.

Another legislator, Mykhailo Tsymbaliuk, has stated that high gasoline prices are already affecting the country’s military capabilities. According to him, the fuel being allocated by the Ministry of Defense is insufficient for the armed forces, causing grave problems. Even evacuations of wounded soldiers are being compromised. “The skyrocketing price of gasoline has become a serious warning sign for the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” the lawmaker warns.

Ukraine’s European supporters will continue for some time to divert fuel resources away from their own needs in order to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with gasoline, even at the expense of their own citizens. However, with every passing week and month that the war with Iran continues, the cost of such assistance will rise sharply for them.

In March, Ukrainian lawmakers told Ukrainian media that European governments are urging them to assure Ukraine keeps fighting Russia for another year-and-a-half to two years. “The Europeans have told us ‘Keep fighting for another year and a half to two years; we’ll provide the money you need’”, reports the publication Zerkalo Nedeli on March 12.

Under such pressure, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has tasked the political leadership in the national legislature to continue functioning for several more years without an electoral mandate. The last national election Ukraine took place in April 2019, with a five-year mandate. It featured the banning of political parties deemed to be sympathetic to dialogue and good relations with Russia, a feature of the system that took power in February 2014 following a violent coup spearheaded by neo-Nazi paramilitaries.

To so many Ukrainians, the urgings and hidden threats by the leaders of ‘civilized Europe’ mean they will continue to be abducted from their own streets for two more years by the recruiters of Kiev’s compulsory military service.

None of the possible scenarios cited by Ukrainian military experts envisage a Russian defeat or the recapture of territories lost by Ukraine. In other words, the sole result of scenarios for continued war being urged is continued destruction of the Ukrainian population, all politely funded by European/NATO-member governments.

This approach speaks volumes about the overall strategy of Kiev and its Western allies. Theirs is a ‘strategy’ of holding out for a while longer without any long-term expectation of peace, hoping for some ‘black swan’ event (‘extremely rare and unpredictable’) that will drastically change the geopolitical situation. In other words, Western imperialism and its Ukrainian stooges are pinning their hopes on a miracle that might save them all.

Ukraine’s European ‘allies’, in truth, currently lack the funds to continue the war in Ukraine. They are negotiating a €90 billion loan for the country, but as mentioned above, European Union member Hungary is currently blocking this proposal.

Meanwhile, on March 18, Ukrainian media, citing a US State Department report, reported that USAID auditors have uncovered irregularities in the oversight of the more than $30 billion in direct budget support to Kiev since February 2022. There are a great many corruption scandals festering in Ukraine, but none have acted as grounds for refusing further loans and financial aid, despite the evidence that much of that could be embezzled.

Zelenskyy told the BBC during a visit to Britain on March 17 (which included a warm welcome by the British monarchy) that the war in Iran raises ominous forebodings about Ukraine’s future. Yet as Ukrainian media has noted, Zelensky is a firm supporter of that war.

In a speech to the annual Munich Security Conference on February 14, Zelensky called for measures to “immediately stop” Iran, without any delay. “Regimes like the one in Iran must not be given time. When they have time, they only kill more. They must be stopped immediately.”

Then, on February 27, he told an interview with Sky News that he supported an operation to depose the Iranian leadership.

Ukraine’s European allies are currently concerned with how to win back Donald Trump’s favor and persuade him to continue funding the Zelensky-led government in Kiev. Finnish President Alexander Stubb fears that negotiations on Ukraine are approaching a “moment of truth” that could force Kiev to formally cede territory in the Donbass region to Moscow. (Populations there voted in 2022 and before that to secede from coup Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.)

Europe, Stubb says, finds itself in a difficult position due to reductions in direct US aid to Ukraine. He proposes an odd trade-off to resolve this dilemma, namely, an ‘exchange’ of military assistance by Ukraine to the US and “Israel” in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for continued assistance to Kiev’s war. That includes a proposal that the European Union agree to provide the US with military assistance to unblock the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for increases in direct US supplies to Ukraine.

But this is wishful thinking. The European Union member-countries of NATO lack the military capabilities required to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They do have experience (gained during the Ukrainian crisis) in buying time and ‘bogging down’ the crisis in the Middle East through numerous rounds of fruitless negotiations with Iran. The essence of the EU approach would see the Iranian side fulfilling certain conditions in the here and now, while the West and its allies promise to ‘do something’ to normalize relations, but at a later time.

During the war in Ukraine, we witnessed endless negotiations in this vein under the ‘Minsk-1’ and ‘Minsk-2’ agreements in 2014 and early 2015. Then there was the ‘grain deal’ of July 2022, whereby the Russian navy would allow Ukraine to export grain from Black Sea ports. In all these cases, Ukraine and the West failed to fulfill their part of the commitments.

Oleg Yasinsky, a Ukrainian political analyst now living in Chile, commented on March 19 about the resistance of the Iranian people to aggression and the tradition of deception to which the West has consistently resorted during negotiations following military failures. “Once upon a time, the ancestors of today’s democratic world leaders negotiated with Indigenous peoples as they plundered and conquered them. At peace-signing ceremonies with the indigenous peoples of Patagonia, poison-laced whale carcasses were served at the table, while in the cold mountains of North America, smallpox-infected blankets and clothing were given as gifts to original peoples.

“Today, from Minsk for Russia to Geneva for Iran, the peacemaking traditions of the ‘civilized world’ have not changed one bit in all this time. Therefore and unfortunately,” he concludes, “missiles are the only real negotiators today.”

Zelensky is now desperately traveling around the world seeking to regain attention for his government as Iran becomes the main topic of global media. He is ‘jumping on the bandwagon’ of war against Iran in efforts to render some valuable service to Western imperialism and prove his continued usefulness. He has offered Ukrainian troops to guard “Israel” and Western military bases in the Gulf and in Cyprus. Alas for him, Trump has dismissed his obsequious ‘servant,’ going so far as to say that “Zelensky is the last person from whom we would need help.”

According to Odessa-based anarchist Vyacheslav Azarov, Ukraine is scrambling to align itself with the dominant theme in international politics and position itself as a useful part of the crisis exploding in the Middle East. Demands for additional support to Kiev are being delivered from this new vantage point. However, in the end, Kiev may simply end up with “additional airstrikes accompanied by the friendly shrieking of minor allies who have no real influence” and a large, new adversary in the form of Iran.”

Zelensky’s humiliating traveling and messaging does not go unnoticed in Ukraine. But the pompous president, who sees himself as a sage colonialist in the style of Winston Churchill and is continuously applauded by the governments of European countries, turns out to be a frightened servant, fearing that his ‘masters’ may abandon him. The war waged by Western imperialism against the Iranian people has once again underscored the weakness and dubious value of Zelensky’s government, whose image the West has artificially inflated for years through its media.

March 22, 2026 Posted by | Civil Liberties, Economics, Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on How the US-Israeli aggression against Iran is affecting the war in Ukraine

Italy Is Caught Between Two Wars. Russia’s LNG Tanker

By Manlio Dinucci | Global Research | March 22, 2026

The case of the Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz, which, after being struck by a Ukrainian drone, is now adrift uncontrolled off our coast, with a cargo of liquefied natural gas, is emblematic of Italy’s predicament, caught between two wars – one in Europe and the other in the Middle East – both provoked by the same power politics pursued by the United States and its allies.

The WWF announced that it is closely monitoring the Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz, which is adrift in the Strait of Sicily following a series of explosions that occurred between 3 and 4 March. The vessel, which is unmanned and out of control, is carrying an extremely dangerous cargo of approximately 900 tonnes of diesel and over 60,000 tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG). A potential spill – warns the WWF – could cause fires, lethal cryogenic clouds and widespread, long-lasting pollution of the water and the atmosphere. The environmental risk is very high and potentially irreversible, with serious repercussions for the economies of the Pelagie Islands, which rely on fishing and tourism. The gravity of the situation is confirmed by the fact that Italy, France and seven other countries have called for prompt action by the European Commission.

What caused this disaster?

Alfredo Mantovano, Undersecretary to the Prime Minister, stated in an interview that it was an “accident involving the Russian vessel”. The government is thus attempting to conceal the true cause: as we reported in Grandangolo on 6 March and as the photos of the wreck show, the Russian vessel Arctic Metagaz was struck by a Ukrainian naval drone launched from Libya.

A genuine act of international terrorism that exposes Italy and other European countries to extremely serious risks – the very same countries that are arming and financing Ukraine for the war against Russia: the thermal content of the ship, which could end up on our shores, is equivalent to that of almost 50 Hiroshima bombs, not counting radioactivity. (See the well-documented articles by Prof. Francesco Cappello on www.pangeanotizie.it).

The story of this veritable ticking time bomb, drifting unchecked in the Mediterranean off our coast, is emblematic of the situation in which Italy finds itself caught between two wars – one in Europe and the other in the Middle East – both triggered by the same power politics pursued by the United States and its allies. Not only do these expose us to growing risks, including the threat of nuclear war, but they are also having an increasing impact on our living conditions. The war against Russia and now that against Iran are causing a sharp rise in energy prices, with serious economic and social consequences. The Israeli attack on the South Pars gas field in Iran, the largest in the world, and Iran’s subsequent retaliation, have sent oil and gas prices soaring.

Italy, which is already effectively participating in the war against Russia despite officially denying it, is now also taking part in the war against Iran, again under US command. US Navy Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drones regularly take off from the Sigonella naval air base (Sicily) for operations in the Persian Gulf against Iran. Italian forces are stationed in Kuwait alongside US forces, equipped with MQ-9 Reaper drones (one of which was destroyed by an Iranian attack) and Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets. At the same time, an Italian Navy missile frigate, the Federico Martinengo, forms part of the naval battle group accompanying the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean as part of the war against Iran.

March 22, 2026 Posted by | Environmentalism, Militarism, War Crimes | , , | Comments Off on Italy Is Caught Between Two Wars. Russia’s LNG Tanker

Iran Beats US & Israeli Missile Defenses by Exploiting Their Weaknesses

Sputnik – 22.03.2026

Iran carried out missile strikes on Israeli towns of Dimona and Arad on March 21.

Air defense systems like THAAD and Iron Dome may be highly capable but they still struggle with combined missile and drone attacks from multiple directions, Imad Salamey, associate professor at the Lebanese American University, tells Sputnik.

“The vulnerability exposed here is not a single system failure, but the limits of even advanced layered defenses when overwhelmed by scale, coordination, and mixed attack profiles,” he explains in the wake of Iranian strikes against Dimona and Arad.

The cost of US missile defenses’ failure

The exposed weakness of the US missile defenses carries significant strategic implications for the Middle East, Salamey notes, as such weapons are widely used to protect US assets across the region.

The US opponents now see that missile and drone tech offer a cost-effective way to fight “technologically superior opponents” while the United States could be forced to reassess its force posture and “invest in more integrated defense architectures.”

What Iran’s control of Israeli airspace could mean

If Iran shows that it can strike high-value targets in Israel repeatedly, it would shift the dynamics of this conflict, Salamey adds. By thus imposing higher costs on Israel and compounding its “freedom of action,” Iran may either push the conflict toward either escalation or “toward indirect negotiation, as both sides weigh the rising risks and diminishing returns of continued attacks.”

March 22, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , | Comments Off on Iran Beats US & Israeli Missile Defenses by Exploiting Their Weaknesses

Report: White House Making ‘Detailed Preparations’ for Invasion of Iran

By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | March 22, 2026

Sources speaking with CBS News said that military commands submitted specific requests to prepare for a ground invasion of Iran.

The US deployed a second Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) to the Middle East last week, the sources explained. The USS Boxer will join the USS Tripoli in the region for a potential ground invasion of Iran. The Department of War is also preparing to deploy portions of the 82nd Airborne.

Axios reported on Friday, speaking with sources who said President Donald Trump is considering an occupation or blockage of Iran’s Kharg Island. The oil facilities on the island, which is located 15 minutes from the mainland in the Persian Gulf, handle 90% of Iran’s oil exports.

“He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that’s going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that’s going to happen. But that decision hasn’t been made,” a senior administration official told the outlet.

Trump is also threatening to escalate attacks on Iran’s power plants if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Republic said it will respond with strikes on civilian infrastructure across the region and the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel’s military chief Eyal Zamir said that the war was at its “halfway point.” On Saturday, an Iranian missile hit Dimona, the city where Israel bases its secret nuclear weapons program. Following the attack, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the US and Israel would “intensify” and “significantly increase” their strikes on Iran in the coming week.

March 22, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , | Comments Off on Report: White House Making ‘Detailed Preparations’ for Invasion of Iran

US Air Defenses Not Suited for Modern Combat — Ex-Air Force Officer

Sputnik – 22.03.2026

The US defenses are “bloated” in Israel, while also spread across the Gulf countries to protect American bases, so they can’t intercept all the Iranian drones and missiles, former colonel of Pakistan’s Air Force Sultan M. Hali tells Sputnik, commenting on recent Iran’s strikes against Dimona and Arad.

“US defense systems… are mostly 20th Century defense systems. What Iran is using is the 21st Century systems for which the Americans and the Israelis were not prepared,” he says.

Iran is launching volleys of drones and missiles simultaneously, which overwhelms Israeli defense systems like the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow, and THAAD, the expert explains.

Another aspect is that the IRGC missiles use low or evasive trajectories to exploit the blind spots of Israeli radars, he adds.

“Even advanced systems, they struggle against massed coordinated attacks, especially when the attackers combine cheap drones with precision missiles,” Hali says.

The effects of Iran getting limited dominance over Israeli skies can be divided into three points, he explains.

Psychological effect — Iran proved it can penetrate Israeli defenses, which undermines Israel’s deterrence and enhances Iranian negotiations position.

Operational leverage — Israel is forced to relocate its resources to defense instead of offensive actions.

Conflict trajectory shift — Israel will try to hit Iran harder to retaliate, but should expect to face high costs.

March 22, 2026 Posted by | Militarism | , , | Comments Off on US Air Defenses Not Suited for Modern Combat — Ex-Air Force Officer

Iran’s strike on Dimona – Israel’s nuclear weapons research center – shows Israeli air defences are weakened

The Dissident | March 21, 2026

The War In Iran has seriously escalated in recent days with Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, and a retaliatory Iranian strike on Dimona, the Israeli city housing its secret Nuclear Weapons development centre .

Israel struck a nuclear enrichment site in Natanz, Iran, and in response, Iran struck, Dimona, in what was apparently a strike targeting the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center located just outside of the city.

For Iran, the fact that an Iranian missile was able to get through such an important strategic area means that Israel is effectively “defenseless”.

After the strike, one Iranian speaker of the parliament said:

If the Israeli regime fails to intercept the missiles in the highly protected Dimona area, it is operationally a sign of entering a new phase of the battle:

Israel’s skies are defenseless.
As a result, it seems the time has come to implement the next pre-designed plans.
Happy Nowruz to the Iranian nation.

Journalist Glenn Greenwald noted that , “Dimona is one of the most strategically important places in Israel” adding that, “If Israel can’t even intercept Iranian missiles aimed there, that is an obvious sign of the serious weakening of their air defenses”.

Indeed, Dimona is no doubt seen as a deeply strategically important place to Israel, given that it, as Middle East Eye noted , “sits near one of the most sensitive locations in Israel: the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, long linked to Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapons programme.”

Journalist Seymour Hersh in his 1991 book, “The Samson Option: Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy”, detailed the history of Israel’s secret Nuclear program at the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center and the efforts Israel went to in order to hide the facility from then U.S. president JFK, including by creating a “false control room … at Dimona, complete with false control panels and computer-driven measuring devices that seemed to be gauging the thermal output of a twenty-four-megawatt reactor (as Israel claimed Dimona to be) in full operation” in order to “convince the (American) inspectors that no chemical reprocessing plant existed or was possible.”

Hersh added that, “One former Israeli official recalled that his job was to interpret for the American team. ‘I was part of the cover-up team. One of the engineers would start talking too much’ in front of the Americans, the official said, and he would tell him, in seemingly conversational Hebrew, ‘Listen, you mother-fucker, don’t answer that question.’ The Americans would think I was translating.’”

Hersh went on to report that, “Sometime early in 1968, Dimona finally was ordered into full-scale production and began turning out four or five warheads a year — there were more than twenty-five bombs in the arsenal by the Yom Kippur War in September 1973”.

The Israeli nuclear program was used to advance the Israeli “Samson Option” doctrine, which as journalist Kit Klarenberg described, is “if the (Israeli) entity feels sufficiently threatened, it reserves the right to carry out preemptive nuclear strikes not merely on regional adversaries, but its Western sponsors into the bargain.”

Israeli military theorist Martin van Creveld, talking about the Samson option in 2003, said, “We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force” adding, “We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under.”

Today, “the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute included Israel in its list of nuclear-armed states in June 2025 and assessed that Israel possesses more than 80 nuclear warheads.”

Given Dimona city’s proximity to the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Centre, and its importance to Israel’s Samson option doctrine, there is no doubt that it is viewed as a strategically important area for Israel, and the fact that an Iranian missile went through shows that Israel’s air defence has been severely weakened.

March 21, 2026 Posted by | Militarism | , , | Comments Off on Iran’s strike on Dimona – Israel’s nuclear weapons research center – shows Israeli air defences are weakened

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