Iran yet to deal its master blow in the region, while U.S. navy looks increasingly vulnerable
By Martin Jay | Strategic Culture Foundation | March 2, 2026
Early on Sunday morning, it was confirmed that Iran’s Supreme Leader had been killed by U.S./Israeli airstrikes, which no doubt will be seen by Trump and Netanyahu as a significant victory in their erroneous goal of regime change. But was it really one to chalk up? Reports from Iran indicate that he will be replaced almost immediately by his son, who had already been playing a key role in the country’s leadership anyway and whose appointment may well be a significantly positive step forward for the country, as many Iranians, while wanting reforms in their country, know only too well that the regime change notion is a trap set by Israel which they reject.
Iran has already scored a number of victories in a mere 24 hours, and their readiness this time was evident which, no matter how you look at the conflict, was certainly a consequence of Trump’s earlier actions in June, when he bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities with the agreement of Iran’s leaders.
No such cosy deal exists today. The Iranians have learned the hard way that Trump is not to be trusted and is not even in control of these decisions. What we are witnessing now is the start of a protracted war which will evolve on several fronts concurrently, with the Iranians in no particular hurry to proceed at a rapid pace. Their significant strikes on a U.S. naval base plus one naval ship is a taste of Iran’s ballistic missile capability which is starting to rain down on Israel itself.
The Supreme Leader’s death actually was not a great victory, given that he made no real effort to go into hiding but was killed in his office. By contrast, Benjamin Netanyahu escaped from Israel and ended up being protected by the country which pulled off the Holocaust. And so Bibi can slowly watch the disintegration of his own country while the region deals with a new reality: oil.
Oil will be a critical, decisive factor in how long Israel and the U.S. can continue with the war, as Iran lost no time in shutting off the Straits of Hormuz, while America’s fleet of ships just sat and watched. This may well be one area where Trump has seriously underestimated the consequences, as energy analysts are already predicting the climb of crude to close to $120 USD in the coming weeks. The choking of one of the most critical channels which provides 20 percent of the world’s oil supply is only part of the horror story, though, that Iran has in store for Trump and Bibi. Warned that they would be hit — or at least their U.S. military bases would be legitimate targets — GCC countries have responded in a way which will please Israel and the U.S.: Saudi Arabia has said they will both attack Iran soon, with Qatar and the UAE likely to join.
Yet such a strategy would be a colossal error of judgment and a spectacular miscalculation which will accelerate the war in Iran’s favour and force the U.S. and Israel to capitulate as Tehran strikes the Achilles heel of the whole operation. Iran can easily destroy the entire oil infrastructure of these GCC countries in a matter of hours, which would not only be a knockout blow to those countries’ economies but will have a considerable impact on world oil prices, for one strengthening Russia. For the moment, Iran doesn’t need to go this far, but if GCC countries really go ahead with their threat, it will have little choice.
Another critical area of misjudgement is the logistics of U.S. battleships operating inside the Straits of Hormuz. The straits have already been closed, and any pretensions that U.S. military planners had of taking on Iran in this ocean have been dashed by its successful destruction of the U.S. Naval base in Bahrain, which of course is played down by U.S. media whose low IQ “journalists” make themselves look even more stupid by asking Iran’s foreign minister why Iran is bombing U.S. bases. The U.S. naval base in Bahrain was a critical supply port for U.S. battleships which carry around 90 missiles on board. The destroyers which are now trapped inside the Straits of Hormuz can’t now reload if they deplete those missiles. The other ships which are on the other side of the blockade now can only restock at the U.S. base of Diego Garcia, which is three days away. To say this is a major blow to the whole operation is an understatement. It is a blunder of extraordinarily poor planning and a stroke of military genius by Iran to hit the U.S. naval base in Bahrain on day one, and it explains why the intense fury of the June retaliation last year has not been replicated. Iran is confident that its planning will defeat the enemy as it has a number of aces to play, and so its response is more measured and less frenetic. Iran has been planning this war for years, and the attack last year by Trump has just focused their minds and honed their military strategy to the point where even after 24 hours, they are looking like the victors who have a real strategy which is paying off, rather than their enemies who are dazed and confused. Is it really any wonder that sailors on the USS Gerald Ford sabotaged the toilet system on board by blocking it with T-shirts, so as to delay its voyage to the Gulf?
Gas prices spike amid fears of Middle East supply shock
RT | March 2, 2026
Gas markets around the world were rattled on Monday, with benchmark European natural gas prices rising sharply and broader energy markets on edge after Middle East tensions increased the risk to supplies via the critical Strait of Hormuz.
European benchmark gas futures surged by around 50% – their biggest single day move since March 2022 – after LNG tankers largely stopped transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, over the weekend.
The spike was compounded by a drone strike on QatarEnergy’s major LNG complex at Ras Laffan, which forced production to be halted.
Crude markets also rallied, with Brent futures climbing to multi-month highs as the escalation further constrained energy flows from the region.
Across the Gulf, other energy sites have also been hit or temporarily shut, with producers suspending parts of their operations as a precaution. Saudi Arabia has reportedly paused activity at its Ras Tanura refinery following the attacks. With pipeline alternatives limited and shipping routes through the area stalling, traders are now pricing in the risk that supply lines could remain disrupted for an extended period.
Analysts warn that the turmoil could amount to the most serious shock to gas markets since the 2022 energy crisis. The EU is seen as particularly exposed. The bloc has already faced repeated jumps in energy costs since it scaled back Russian oil and gas imports following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict. Moving away from relatively cheap Russian pipeline gas has forced the bloc to lean more heavily on LNG deliveries, especially from the US. Now, with the heating season ending but storage sites less full than usual, the region requires substantial LNG imports over the summer to rebuild inventories ahead of next winter.
The rally comes as US President Donald Trump has indicated that military operations against Iran could continue for several weeks, while a number of major maritime insurers are preparing to stop covering war risks for ships entering the Persian Gulf.
Military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on Saturday have shown no sign of easing. The intense attacks have reportedly killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, including the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while Tehran has responded with airstrikes against Israel and several Gulf states hosting US military assets. In a further sign of regional escalation, Lebanon’s Hezbollah has entered the fray with cross‑border attacks on Israeli military positions, prompting retaliatory airstrikes on the group’s infrastructure and command sites.
Analysts, including Goldman Sachs, estimate that a month‑long halt to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could send European gas prices up by as much as 130% from current levels, putting renewed pressure on households and industry.
Kirill Dmitriev, Russia’s presidential envoy and head of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, argued that the latest price jump highlights the cost of Europe’s decision to move away from Russian fuel. In a social‑media post, he said EU gas prices “could more than double soon” and claimed that the bloc’s “strategic blunder of avoiding cheap and reliable Russian gas is backfiring.”
US-Israeli strike targets IRIB facility; broadcasts continue
Press TV – March 1, 2026
A US-Israeli strike has targeted one of the buildings belonging to Channel 2 of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), Iran’s official broadcaster.
The building, located on Alvand Street in the capital Tehran, was targeted on Sunday.
Despite the attack, the IRIB said its programming remained on air, saying broadcasting of its channels, including Channel 2, was continuing without interruption, and no disruption had been reported in overall television transmission.
Damage assessment under way
Reporting on the development, Tasnim News Agency said television broadcasts were currently proceeding as normal, adding that technical teams at the national broadcaster were assessing potential damage resulting from the strike.
Follow-up inquiries with the IRIB’s technological development department indicated that only a brief disruption had occurred, while viewers were advised that access to television channels could be restored by re-scanning their receivers.
The department stated that television channels were experiencing no problems or disruptions and continued their routine operations, and added that no damage had been inflicted on the television studios.
Observers described the strike as yet another “war crime” taking place as part of the Israeli regime’s and the United States’ latest bout of unprovoked aggression against Iran.
The aggression has prompted at least eight waves of decisive retaliatory strikes on numerous hostile targets throughout the region.
The regime struck the IRIB’s headquarters in Tehran last June too, causing the martyrdom of at least three journalists enlisted with the broadcaster.
Forget Oil: Natural Gas Prices Are About to Go Through the Roof If Hormuz Isn’t Reopened Soon
Sputnik – 01.03.2026
“Gas prices may rise, because approximately 20% of the world’s LNG transits through the Strait of Hormuz, including all of Qatar’s production,” Igor Yushkov, a top Russian energy expert, told Sputnik, commenting on the Persian Gulf crisis.
“Qatar is one of the largest producers of LNG in the world, second only to Australia and the US. If there’s a shortage of LNG on the global market…the exchange price could easily exceed $1k or even 1.5k. We’ve seen similar prices in Europe even without such a shortage. So the price could skyrocket.”
According to Yushkov, “everything will depend on how long the tension in the Strait of Hormuz lasts,” including not only Iran’s readiness to reopen it, but gas producers’ willingness to resume transit.
“In any case, we will see higher shipping costs, higher insurance costs for ships,” with the situation “further exacerbated” by the fact that the Northern Hemisphere is still in the heating season, with Europe’s underground gas storage facilities being gradually depleted.
“Even though Qatar gas physically goes primarily to Asian markets, the exchange price will rise everywhere,” same as oil, Yushkov clarified. Qatar itself also has no alternative to Hormuz. “Therefore, if it is unable to export LNG, Qatar will simply have to stop production.”
Message to China
The current crisis is also “a major wake-up call for China,” with the US demonstrating its readiness to flout international law, Yushkov says.
“China is being shown that anything coming from the south is unsafe. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz may be interrupted today as part of the current conflict, but tomorrow the Americans could close it off to Qatari LNG supplies to the Chinese market.”
“Or they could close the Strait of Malacca, through which all the hydrocarbons going to China from Africa and the entire Middle East flow. Therefore, this is a signal to China that anything coming from the north is much safer, and much more difficult to shut down,” the observer summed up.
Hormuz Strait: Iran’s Strategic Trump Card for Forcing Enemies to the Negotiating Table
Sputnik – 01.03.2026
Iran is in an “existential confrontation” with the US and Israel, and restricting access to the Hormuz Strait – entry point to the oil-rich Persian Gulf region, is one of the “most powerful strategic cards” it holds, says Dr. Ali Mamouri, a former strategic communication advisor to Iraq’s prime minister.
“Iran’s broader strategy appears to be buying time and raising the cost of the conflict, hoping to drag the United States into a prolonged and expensive confrontation that would generate domestic political pressure on President Trump to seek a ceasefire,” Mamouri told Sputnik.
“On the other side, Washington and Israel seem to be betting on internal collapse—expecting that military pressure might trigger protests, elite divisions, or defections within Iran’s security forces. So far, however, none of these internal fractures have appeared.”
“A prolonged closure” of the Hormuz Strait would have a profound impact on the global economy, Mamouri says.
“A sustained disruption would likely trigger sharp spikes in global oil prices.” Beyond that, the import-heavy economies of Gulf countries, and oil import-dependent economies of Asia and Europe could descend into crises, shipping insurance premiums would surge, global supply chains wrecked, and inflation skyrocketing, “affecting everything from fuel prices to manufacturing and food supply.”
“In this sense, a prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a domino effect across the global economy, combining energy shocks, trade disruptions and financial instability,” Mamouri stressed. “If Iran manages to maintain a sustained disruption, it could become a powerful bargaining tool to force negotiations and potentially halt the current military escalation.”
Trump bit off more than he can chew with Iran – ex-Pentagon analyst
RT | March 1, 2026
The US-Israeli strikes on Iran are unlikely to trigger regime change and risk escalating into a wider geopolitical confrontation, former Pentagon security policy analyst Michael Maloof has told RT.
Washington and West Jerusalem launched what they described as a “preemptive” attack on the Islamic Republic after nuclear talks failed to produce a breakthrough, prompting retaliation from Iran. Tehran responded with missile and drone strikes targeting Israel and US military bases across the region.
In an interview with RT on Saturday, Maloof said the timing of the attack had likely been finalized during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Mar-a-Lago on February 12, despite President Donald Trump publicly insisting that negotiations with Tehran were ongoing.
“The United States has always done Israel’s bidding. Netanyahu basically controls Trump,” Maloof claimed, adding that the US president has effectively pursued the Israeli PM’s vision of “a greater Israel to encompass all the Arab countries.”
Trump openly declared his goal to force regime change in Tehran, but efforts to topple Iran’s government would face major obstacles, according to Maloof.
“Regime change is something that is going to be difficult, especially in Iran, where they’re very, very set. They have a government in place,” he said. Even with the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would likely keep the country functioning as a “cohesive nation-state.”
At the same time, he described the strikes as part of a broader strategic confrontation extending beyond Iran’s nuclear or missile programs, noting how the US president has been openly critical of BRICS and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
“And Iran just happened to be a very critical component to that, with Russia and with China,” Maloof said. “I think Trump bit off more than he could chew on this one.”
“These attacks are gonna affect the whole economic world order, literally overnight. So we’re in for a long, hard slug here,” Maloof said, adding that “it’s easy to start a war, but [it’s harder to know] how to stop one.”
Murdering Khamenei Will Kill Trump’s Presidency
By Ian Proud | Strategic Culture Foundation | March 1, 2026
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei was assassinated in what is being described in western media as a joint airstrike operation. Even though the Israeli air-force carried out airstrikes in and around Tehran, it is clear that these were supported by the U.S. military. As such, the U.S. is complicit in the murder of the Head of State of a sovereign nation.
And this unilateral military action once again proved both that the United Nations Charter has lost its value and that the UN Security Council is now broken.
In his opening remarks to the Security Council, Secretary General António Guterres condemned the military strikes by the U.S. and Israel, which also condemning the Iranian response, citing Article 2 of the UN Charter.
“All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.”
The enormous and ongoing military strikes against Iran were clearly in breach of that Article.
In its response to the Security Council, Iran’s Representative cited Article 51 of the UN Charter, which states that “nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individuals or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.” Article 51 is one of only two exceptions to the general prohibition on the use of force by UN members set out in Article 2.
The strikes were all the more cynical for taking place part way through talks moderated by the government of Oman. Indeed, Guterres hinted at this in his remarks, saying:
“The U.S. and Israeli attacks occurred following the third round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran mediated by Oman.
Preparations had been made for technical talks in Vienna next week followed by a new round of political talks.
I deeply regret that this opportunity of diplomacy has been squandered.”
Pakistan’s representative at the Council was more blunt, saying that “diplomacy has once again been derailed as these attacks have happened right in the middle of negotiations.”
Indeed, the strikes confirmed that the UN Security council has become completely unable to take measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.
On the 80th anniversary of the founding of the UN Secretary General Guterres warned that “fragile” legitimacy of the Security Council could endanger global peace if it remains gridlocked and fails to fulfil its primary purpose.
All of the the western nations around the UN Security Council table last night showed themselves to be weak and silent, in the face of American’s military might.
As one, they criticised Iran’s unprovoked attacks on Gulf states, as Iranian ballistic missiles targeted U.S. military sites in Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait, while also targeting Israel. Self evidently, Iran was targeting U.S. military installations in all of those countries and. Indeed, the U.S.’ fifth fleet Headquarters in Bahrain was struck by at least one ballistic missile. Yet civilian sites also got hit, including in the UAE and in Bahrain.
However, there was no mention at all of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in the statements of western nations at the Security Council, as if they feared U.S. reprisals if they spoke out. Not a single word from the French, the Latvians, the Danes, the Greeks, even the Bahrainis, only that Iran murdered its citizens and should not be allowed to acquire a nuclear bomb.
In the end the acting UK Permanent Representative, James Kariuki, who I can tell you from personal experience is the most arrogant and puffed up British diplomat that I ever met, said that:
“Iran must refrain from further strikes, and its appalling behaviour, to allow a path back to diplomacy.”
The sitting President of the UN Security Council, the United Kingdom (the U.S. takes over the Presidency today) did not utter a single word about the USA or Israel. No attempt, as the country convening the meeting, to seek common ground and some agreement on the way forward.
Britain’ approach was merely to blame Iran in what the Russian Federation representative described in his intervention as ‘victim blaming’. I already knew that Britain had given up diplomacy in 2014, but this appeared yet another nail in a coffin which the UK refuses to bury as it pretends to be a nation of diplomacy. It is not. Britain is now a nation of warmongers without the troops to fight.
While final confirmation of the fact had yet to be provided at that time, the Prime Minister of Israel and President Trump were already celebrating the possible killing of Khamanei. ‘The dictator is gone,’ Netanyahu crowed.
In his social media statement, President Trump called on Iranian people to rise up and take over their country.
Yet within hours, sources within the CIA were already leaking reports that Khamenei may simply be replaced by IRGC hardliners.
As I have pointed out before, rather than fomenting revolution, unilateral military action against Iran may have the opposite effect and mobilise Iranian resistance.
This idea was stated with great clarity by Professor Robert Pape of Chicago University who said:
“With each passing day of regime-targeting airstrikes, we lose control over the political dynamics they unleash.
It becomes less about individual leaders and more about national survival. Less about dissent and more about resistance.
Imagine if a foreign power struck Washington and called on Americans to overthrow their government. Would citizens rally against their leaders — or against the foreign attacker?”
Iran is a country of 92 million people with an army of over 610,000. It is a tightly controlled state and as we saw in January is more than capable and ready to stifle internal dissent, including through violent means. It also does not have an oven-ready opposition lined up in the wings that can walk in unopposed and miraculously take over the country. To suggest that it does takes us into Bay of Pigs territory.
Having already kidnapped the Head of State of one sovereign nation already this year, the United States of America has now murdered another, Ayatollah Khamenei. This will unleash asymmetric threats against the U.S. and all of its allies that Donald Trump will not be able to control. If this military action drags out inconclusively, and I predict it will, then the mid-terms may prove catastrophic for Trump. I predict that the Iranian regime will outlast his.
Unexpected Iranian reaction paralyzed Americans and Israelis on the first day of war
By Lucas Leiroz | Strategic Culture Foundation | March 1, 2026
The recent military escalation in the Middle East revealed a strategic miscalculation on the part of Washington and Tel Aviv. By launching a direct offensive against Iran, authorities in the United States and Israel apparently assumed that Tehran would repeat the pattern observed in previous confrontations: initial restraint, calibrated retaliation, and delayed timing. This pattern was evident both during the so-called Twelve-Day War and in earlier episodes of Israeli aggression against Iranian targets and regional allies. This time, however, the calculation proved mistaken.
The central element of the initial strategy appears to have been a classic attempt at “decapitation,” targeting the Supreme Leader, his family, and other high-level figures. The underlying logic is well known: by removing the apex of decision-making authority, internal disorganization, succession disputes, and operational paralysis would follow. This approach is recurrent in Western military doctrine, especially when directed against states considered systemic adversaries.
However, this type of strategy tends to fail when applied to highly institutionalized states equipped with complex political-military structures. Iran is not a fragile entity dependent on a single personal command center. It is a system with multiple layers of authority, defined chains of succession, and deep integration between the state apparatus, regular armed forces, and parallel security structures. Moreover, it is a civilization with millennia of historical continuity, whose contemporary political identity was consolidated precisely under external pressure. The elimination of an individual leader, even if symbolically significant, does not automatically dismantle a state with this degree of structural cohesion.
What surprised analysts was the speed of the Iranian reaction. Unlike what occurred during the Twelve-Day War, this time retaliation was immediate and multifaceted. Within the first hours after the attacks, Iran launched a series of simultaneous operations against American military installations across the Middle East. Bases used by U.S. forces were struck with missiles and drones in coordinated actions aimed at saturating defense systems and reducing interception capacity.
At the same time, Israeli defensive systems were placed under pressure through multiple and forceful attacks. Iran’s strategy was not limited to a symbolic gesture; it represented a deliberate attempt to impose immediate and visible costs, altering adversaries’ perception of risk. Throughout the first day of confrontation, the operational tempo remained constant, creating an environment of heightened uncertainty for the Zionist regime.
The multiplicity of vectors employed – different launch platforms, varied trajectories, and synchronized timing – contributed to confusion among military planners in Washington and Tel Aviv. By all indications, such a bold and rapid action was not anticipated. The assumption that Tehran would hesitate, seek mediation, or respond in a limited fashion proved incorrect. Instead, Iran sought to demonstrate its capacity for strategic coordination under maximum pressure.
This behavior suggests that Iranian authorities internalized relevant lessons from recent conflicts. Delays in responding, observed in previous episodes, were interpreted by adversaries as signs of strategic restraint or operational limitation. By opting for an immediate and comprehensive reaction, Tehran sought to redefine the rules of engagement and establish a new threshold of deterrence.
The psychological impact should not be underestimated. Continuous attacks throughout the first day reportedly generated confusion and near paralysis within certain Israeli and American decision-making circles. When multiple fronts are activated simultaneously, the ability to prioritize strategically becomes far more complex, if not effectively impossible.
It now remains to be seen how escalation will unfold in the coming days. Iran’s initial response altered the immediate balance but does not end the cycle of action and reaction. Washington and Tel Aviv face the classic dilemma between expanding the offensive – risking a large-scale regional conflict – or seeking indirect channels of containment. The first day demonstrated that the scenario evolved beyond initial expectations. From this point forward, each additional move may redefine not only the military dynamic but the broader security architecture of the entire Middle East.
Trump to Give “Important Update on Iran” Wednesday in Prime-Time Speech
By Larry C. Johnson – SONAR – April 1, 2026
What is Donald Trump going to say about Iran on Wednesday night? Before I layout three possible outcomes, let’s examine what Trump is actually doing in terms of some key military assets (all of this is from open source reporting).
A-10 Squadron (Confirmed New Deployment)
Since Friday, March 27, 2026, the most prominently reported new US air asset movement to the Middle East (CENTCOM area of responsibility) has been a squadron-sized deployment of A-10C Thunderbolt II attack aircraft (Warthogs). Six A-10s from the Idaho Air National Guard’s 190th Fighter Squadron arrived at Pease Air National Guard Base (New Hampshire) as part of staging. On March 30, twelve A-10s from the Michigan Air National Guard’s 107th Fighter Squadron (Selfridge ANGB) departed Pease for RAF Lakenheath, UK (a common transit stop), in two flights of six. Another six followed on March 31. These ~12–18 aircraft are en route to the Middle East to reinforce or nearly double the existing A-10 presence there.
A-10s are already operating in theater (e.g., from the 75th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron) for close air support, anti-boat strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, drone interdiction, and coastal targeting. The surge supports intensified low-altitude operations against Iranian “mosquito fleet” vessels, mines, and remnants amid the broader campaign.
Apache Helicopters (AH-64) Squadron
US Central Command publicly confirmed the operational use of AH-64 Apache attack helicopters in late March (updates around March 16–18 and a specific confirmation on March 26). The 6-17th Air Cavalry Squadron (part of the 4th Infantry Division Combat Aviation Brigade, operating AH-64D/E variants) is the unit involved. It had been forward-deployed earlier (under prior rotations like Operation Inherent Resolve) but was newly integrated into Epic Fury strikes against Iranian boats, drones, and coastal targets in the southern flank/Hormuz area.
Several viral Facebook posts and YouTube videos (from accounts like “MovieFans.Lich,” “Live WWIIIRE,” and similar sensationalist pages) claim a “massive C-17 fleet” is deploying Apache helicopter squadrons alongside troops, armored vehicles, and equipment. These describe “dozens” or “over 112 C-17s” streaming into the region, with Apaches highlighted for their anti-armor, close air support, and anti-boat roles in rugged coastal terrain. Some videos include generic footage of folded Apaches inside C-17 cargo bays or all-female flight crews turning around quickly.
Posts from OSINT-focused X accounts (e.g., @TheIntelFrog, @Faytuks, @JewishWarrior13) detail dozens of C-17 flights since mid-March (e.g., ~35–50 flights tracked from March 12–24, with more ongoing) originating from bases like Fort Bragg/Pope AAF, Fort Campbell, Hunter AAF, and McChord AFB. Destinations include Ovda (Israel), Jordanian bases (King Faisal, King Hussein), and other CENTCOM hubs. These are linked to troop surges (including elements of the 82nd Airborne) and special operations forces, with some users speculating or claiming that attack helicopters like Apaches are part of the heavy equipment being airlifted. One analysis noted origins tied to units with aviation assets, such as the 160th SOAR (which operates helicopters, though primarily MH-6/ MH-60 rather than AH-64).
The new deployment of these assets are consistent with a military option that involves close-air support and/or attacks on Iranian fast boats and water drones.
So what is Trump going to announce?
Option 1 — Declare that negotiations with Iran via intermediaries (e.g., Pakistan) are progressing and that the United States is going to cease combat operations against Iran in order to support the negotiations and achieve a peaceful resolution.
Option 2 — Declare that victory has been achieved and that US forces will begin withdrawing from the region, leaving the status of the Strait of Hormuz in limbo.
Option 3 — Announce a massive air and ground operation to secure the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
The deployment of the A-10s and the Apaches can only mean one of two things:
- It is a show of force intended to pressure Iran to return to the negotiating table.
- The US is going to launch a massive attack against Iranian assets in the Persian Gulf, especially those located in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Since Monday, March 30, 2026, President Donald Trump has made several public comments on the ongoing US-led Operation Epic Fury against Iran, primarily via Truth Social posts, interviews (including with the New York Post ), and remarks to reporters. His statements emphasize US military successes, threats of further escalation if demands are unmet, criticism of allies, and a potential near-term wind-down of direct US involvement.
On Monday, Trump described Iran as effectively “decimated” or “obliterated,” with its air force, navy, and many ships sunk or destroyed. He portrayed the campaign as highly successful and “way ahead of schedule” in prior context, but continued highlighting strikes on “long-sought-after targets.” He shared video footage on Truth Social of a massive explosion and secondary blasts in Isfahan (linked to strikes on uranium-related or military sites), without additional caption in one instance.
Trump also posted that the US was in “serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime” to end operations. He warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is not “immediately ‘Open for Business’” and a deal is not reached shortly, the US would “completely obliterate” Iran’s electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly desalination plants. He framed this as concluding the US “lovely ‘stay’ in Iran.” In follow-up comments, he suggested the US could respond to Iranian actions “twenty times harder” with “Death, Fire, and Fury.”
Overall, Trump’s messaging since March 30 combines triumphalism about US achievements, escalatory warnings tied to the Strait of Hormuz and energy targets, frustration with allies, and signals of de-escalation with a short timeline for reduced US involvement. These comments have influenced market reactions (e.g., oil prices and equities) and drawn responses from Iranian officials and international observers.
Trump’s remarks since Monday have boosted the confidence of the folks on Wall Street and contributed to a significant surge in the stock market, with the Dow up 1,125 points. The price for BRENT oil dropped from 118 to 103 during Tuesday trading. This means the financial folks believe the war is going to end.
I think Trump is counting on Iran offering up some concessions in the face of the US buildup of additional air combat assets. Netanyahu reportedly just said Iran no longer poses a threat to Israel’s existence… A dramatic pivot if true. However, over the last few hours, Israel and the US carried out a large wave of attacks across Iran. They struck targets across several parts of Tehran, as well as in the cities of Karaj, Shahriar, Ahvaz, Shiraz, Abadeh, Isfahan, and Bandar Abbas. Iran will retaliate in force to these latest attacks.
In short, I believe Donald Trump will announce a major offensive to try to force Iran to release its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz… I believe that offensive will fail and that the war will escalate unless the US and Israel agree to two critical Iranian demands: the end of all sanctions and the removal of US military bases from the Persian Gulf arab countries.
Russia and China are two wild cards that could change the trajectory of the current war. If they engage and apply pressure on the diplomatic front — including ironclad security guarantees to Iran — Donald Trump may take the exit ramp.
What do you think?
Pascal Lottaz and I discussed the current situation in the Persian Gulf:
I did my usual Tuesday chat with Marcello:
A new interview with Rathbone. Interesting fellow… He’s also a comedian:
Larry Johnson: The U.S. Will Exhaust Itself & Lose War Against Iran
Glenn Diesen | February 28, 2026
Larry Johnson is a former intelligence analyst at the CIA who also worked at the US State Department’s Office of Counterterrorism. Johnson discusses why the US will lose the war against Iran.
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In The Name of ‘Helping Iran’, The U.S. And Israel Slaughter Over 100 Iranian Schoolgirls
The Dissident | February 28, 2026
During his announcement of the current U.S./Israeli regime change war on Iran , Trump framed the war under the pretext of helping Iranians, saying:
to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations.
For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.
But after one day of war, the U.S. and Israel have already carried out a massacre of over 100 children.
The Financial Times reports that, “A primary school in southern Iran was struck during Saturday’s joint US-Israeli military operation, killing at least 108 people who were mostly schoolgirls, according to Iranian authorities.”
According to the governor of Hormozgan Province, Mohammad Ashouri, “In addition to the deaths, 92 people were injured and an unspecified number trapped under rubble”.
The Guardian reported that , “In one video circulating on social media, purportedly showing the immediate aftermath of the strike, smoke rises from the burnt-out walls, and debris lies spread across the road. Hundreds of onlookers gathered at the site, some in obvious distress. Screams can be heard in the background,” adding, “Persian factchecking service Factnameh was able to cross-reference the video with other photographs of the school site, and concluded that the video was authentic. Reuters said it had also verified the footage as being from the school.”
Other footage also shows the bodies of the student girls who were killed in the massacre.
This massacre has also been confirmed by multiple witnesses who have spoken to the media.
Middle East Eye interviewed a staff member at the school who said, “She used to watch these young girls playing at school every day. But after today’s strikes, she saw their bodies lying on classroom benches and in different corners of the school.”
Middle East Eye added:
She said she had stepped out of the school to take care of something when she suddenly heard a horrifying sound. Within seconds, a missile – or something like it – hit the school building.
After hearing the blast, she ran back toward the school and was faced with a scene she says she will never forget for the rest of her life.
“I felt like I had gone mute. I couldn’t speak,” the staff member told MEE. “You could hear the sound of children crying and screaming.”
Drop Site News spoke to Mohammed Shariatmadar, the father of a six-year-old girl named Sara killed in the massacre, who said, “I cannot understand how a place where innocent children learn can be bombed like this, We are talking about small children who knew nothing of politics or wars. And yet they are the ones paying the highest price,” adding, “My heart is broken, For Sara and for all the children we lost today. I want the world to know that the children are the real victims. Every day that passes without a solution increases the pain and the suffering for the families and for the children alike”.
Another witness told Drop Site News, “Everyone rushed to the school the moment they heard the blasts. Chaos took over completely. Security forces were trying to push families back, fearing the area would be targeted again.”
Seyyed Ibrahim Mirkhayali, a father who lost his nine-year-old daughter in the massacre said, “I was at work when my wife called and told me that the girls’ primary school in Minab had been bombed. I could not process what I was hearing at first. Then I left immediately and drove to the school. The atmosphere was terrifying and catastrophic. The parents were in a deadly silence, filled with fear and dread for their daughters. We did not know who had gotten out and who was still under the rubble”.
Along with this media reports that “In Fars Province, also in southern Iran, ‘Israel’ killed 20 volleyball players in a strike on a sports hall in the city of Lamerd, according to a provincial official.”
While pretending to care about Iranians, the U.S. and Israel are clearly happy to massacre children and civilians in Iran in order to carry out the real goal of destroying Iran as a nation.
Why are Americans killing and dying for Israel, again?
By Tarik Cyril Amar | RT | February 28, 2026
Israel and its US auxiliaries have attacked Iran. In terms of international law and elementary justice, things are clear beyond the slightest doubt: the attack is a war of aggression – but to be fair, in Israel’s case that hardly makes a difference anymore.
With ‘highlights’ including apartheid, ethnic cleansing, unlawful detention, torture, sexual violence, and genocide, Israel has such an extensive and constantly growing record of, literally, every crime under international law, including human-rights and humanitarian law (or the law of armed conflict), that one more or less hardly seems to matter anymore. This state is a monster, and monsters will monster as long as they can.
The US, of course, is no spring chicken either when it comes to treating international law – really, any law – as a doormat and brutally, gleefully violating the most basic ethics, the kind of simple rules normal people intuitively recognize, such as “don’t murder, lie, or steal.”
Indeed, while Israel can easily claim to be the single most criminal, indeed evil country in the world, the US wins the most-powerful-rogue-state prize hands down. There is – empirically, quantifiably – no other country that combines such ingrained and increasingly explicit scorn for law and morality with such brute power and perpetual violence. Before the current assault on Iran, the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was just the last proof of that fact, so glaringly obvious that it woke up even some Western commentators.
If some things are too obvious to merit further discussion, others are more intriguing. Let’s start with the greatest mystery: Why is the US joining – really, obeying – Israel and its powerful American lobby once again in going to war in the Middle East? Was Iraq 2003 not enough of a disaster? Are the American elites really congenitally unable to learn?
In terms of actual US interests, war against Iran makes no sense at all. Iran is not close to a nuclear bomb and, as a matter of fact, has a religiously and ethically based (hard to grasp in Washington, I know) explicit policy against acquiring one. And even if Iran were building such weapons or seeking a state of being “latently” able to do so as urgently needed insurance against permanent Israeli and US aggression, Washington would gain nothing and risk very much by going to war.
On the other hand, it was precisely the JCPOA agreement with Iran, destroyed by the US during the first Trump presidency, that proved empirically that the issue of Iranian nuclear energy use can be resolved well by compromise. As to recent, hysterical US claims about other types of WMDs and “intercontinental missiles,” it is time to no longer give such crude, dumb lies the time of day. Enough with the propaganda already.
Regime change? So, please could someone explain why installing a washed-out Pahlavi princeling – if it ever were to work, that is – in Tehran is good for Americans? Spoiler, no one can. At least not honestly. Do I hear someone say geopolitics? Oh, that would mean the “genius” geopolitics of risking a long war with great damage to the US and its regional allies? Then, perhaps it’s all about plunder? Yes, true, the US simply loves plundering. Historically speaking, the whole country is built on it, just like Israel. But even plunder on its own despicable terms only makes sense if you turn a profit. Good luck with that while sinking more gazillions into war-for-Israel.
And that brings us to the only explanation that does make sense, even if in a very grim way: The US, as in almost all Americans, has zero interest in war with Iran. As little as in a proxy war with Russia and a Cold War with China, both strategies, by the way, doomed to fail. In all three cases, the vast majority of Americans would only stand to benefit from peaceful and cooperative relationships.
But Washington chooses permanent conflict and war against Iran anyhow. The reason is that US policy in the Middle East – and not only – has been captured by Israel and its lobby. As John Mearsheimer, both doyen of explaining international relations by national interests (the theory of Realism) and co-author of the standard work on the Israel Lobby, has long acknowledged, Israel’s influence on the US is real, contradicts American interests, and forms an exception to the theory of realism in that Washington is constantly hurting its own country.
For reasonable observers, this case is closed. When devastating the Middle East, the US is acting not in its own genuine national interest but the perverse conception that Israel has of its national interest: subjugating and, if needed, destroying all sovereign states in its neighborhood so as to create and preserve Israeli domination and even ‘Greater Israel’, a nightmare of ‘Lebensraum’ for Zionist settlers from, at least, Egypt to Iraq.
But, again, why? This is where the Epstein scandal makes a difference – or should do so – to unbiased minds. We must acknowledge that Jeffrey Epstein was not “merely” a very rich and perverse criminal with far too many friends in high places but an agent of Israel, whether with a direct affiliation to its dreaded Mossad service of spying, murder, and subversion or not. His core operation served to gather extremely compromising blackmail material on large swathes of the elites of the US and the West more generally. FBI agents, we now know, assessed that Trump himself is among those trapped in this manner. If anything, frantic – and also, again, criminal, efforts – by Trump’s Department of Justice and his head of the FBI to purge the files of references to the current president and his friends only provide further corroborating evidence that Trump is under Israel’s control.
Remember ‘Russiagate’ (really, of course, Russia Rage)? The irony! Russia was never remotely close to (or even trying) to having a US president under its thumb. That was all BS. Yet, in the end, ‘Russiagate’ did do two things: it gave Trump a (fundamentally realistic if exaggerated) sense of having been a victim of a smear campaign and, among voters, it helped Trump make his furious comeback, without which he would not now be in power. The delusion and mass hysteria of ‘Russiagate’ – which was that famous American thing, a nothing-burger – paved the way for the power that really controls Trump and really does enormous damage to America: Israel and its lobby.
Will Americans ever free themselves from the one state and network that have really run history’s most successful subversion and state-capture operation on them? Who knows? We know that it would take more than putting an end to Epstein-like blackmail. If anything, Trump’s bitter enemies, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, have only recently shown us that the American “elite” is enthralled to Israel and its crimes also for reasons ranging from being bribed to sharing the vile insanity of Zionism. If the US ever wants its independence back from Israel, all of that will have to go.
Tarik Cyril Amar is a historian from Germany working at Koç University, Istanbul, on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe, the history of World War II, the cultural Cold War, and the politics of memory.
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