A New Resistance Front: How Does Syria Factor into the Regional War?
By Robert Inlakesh | The Palestine Chronicle | April 2, 2026
A new Syrian resistance group has emerged and is the only organization in the country currently carrying out offensive actions against both Israeli and US targets. This development comes as Israel uses the newly occupied territories in its ground assault on Lebanon, a move that could easily rope Tel Aviv into a new quagmire.
While a US allied leader now technically controls Damascus, the reality on the ground in Syria is that there is no functional State. This being the case, the outbreak of chaos is simply one miscalculation away.
In stark contrast to the regimented and tightly controlled Syria that existed under the rule of Bashar Al-Assad and his father Hafez al-Assad, the country today is divided between countless powers throughout the country, with the President functioning as less of a strongman and more of a symbolic figure that covers the explosive charges ready to detonate. Nowhere was this on clearer display than in the July 2025 clashes in southern Syria’s Sweida Province.
President Ahmed al-Shara’a, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has allied himself with his Western backers and even gone as far as signing onto a normalization mechanism with Israel. Short of full normalization of ties with Tel Aviv, the “joint fusion mechanism” that was agreed upon by Syrian and Israeli officials seeks to “facilitate immediate and ongoing coordination on their intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under the supervision of the United States.”
Knowing this, it would therefore appear strange that the Israelis still persist with not only bombing Syrian civilian infrastructure across the country, but also Syria’s new military forces. Understanding why will help in unlocking what appears on the surface to be a difficult puzzle to solve.
The Syrian leadership is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), infamous for being a rebrand of al-Nusra Front (Al-Qaeda in Syria). Although it is presented as if it were a real government, the group never had any experience in governance. Instead, they knew only how to rule over smaller militia factions and worked as the de facto leadership in Idlib, despite there having been a “Syrian Salvation Government” (SSG) who were technically in control of the territory.
Prior to the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s leadership in December of 2024, HTS had consented to the SSG’s existence in order to give the veneer of a professionally organized opposition. In reality, HTS held all the power cards, even running its own secret prisons, while leaving the administrative details to be hashed out by the professionals.
All of this is of great importance because Bashar al-Assad’s entire system was not overthrown in some kind of war of liberation; instead, it collapsed without any real fight. Therefore, when Ahmed al-Shara’a entered Damascus and declared himself leader, he was in a very difficult position.
Under the supervision of his foreign backers, chiefly the United States, the new Syrian leadership focused on symbolism rather than fundamentally changing the way the country functioned. Therefore, Damascus opened itself up to Washington and became a playground for Western and Israeli intelligence agents, as the new President attempted to impress Washington.
Meanwhile, many of the most corrupt elements belonging to the former regime, were permitted to continue on as if it was business as usual, all as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and former intelligence and police services were disbanded. What replaced the former security apparatus were simply militants belonging to the alphabet soup of Al-Qaeda affiliates that had been operating previously out of Idlib.
This being the case, the words of Ahmed al-Shara’a often have little to no bearing on what actually transpires on the ground. Meaning that corruption is rampant, every corner of the nation is filled with different armed forces who have their own territory when push comes to shove. In essence, all of Syria became a big Idlib.
Syria is no longer subjected to sanctions, has gained access to its most fertile agricultural lands, is no longer internationally isolated, while ruling over its own oil and gas fields. Despite all of this, the country’s economy is still in the toilet, and the long-promised prosperity has been reduced to vague future visions. This isn’t to say it’s impossible for things to change, but as it stands, this is Syria today.
Because of the state of Syria’s affairs, cross-border smuggling has exploded and this has evidently benefited Lebanese Hezbollah next door. Two sources familiar with the matter informed Palestine Chronicle that the quantity of weapons flowing through the Syrian-Lebanese border had even increased since the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
According to reports, the US has been applying pressure on Damascus to attack Lebanon in order to help Israel weaken Hezbollah in the Bekaa Valley region. In response, President al-Shara’a broke his silence this Tuesday and declared that Syria will not attack Lebanon, an announcement that came following a threat earlier that day from an Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) spokesperson, threatening to attack if Damascus orders such a move.
This affirmed previous suspicions that such an equation could arise, whereby a Syrian invasion of Lebanon would trigger an Iraqi invasion. The PMU, when fully mobilized, can muster a force of around 250,000 fighters, a much more formidable force than what currently constitutes the Syrian Army.
Another possible equation that could be set is a Syria-Israel clash. Not only could armed resistance groups, aligned with the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance, end up creating such a reality, but others could also be roped in.
Israel’s recent bombing of Syrian military positions, coupled with Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s calls to assassinate the Syrian President, both occurred following an alleged military buildup near the Sweida Province.
It is likely that Damascus was eyeing the opportunity presenting itself to finally deal with the Druze Separatist movement in the southern province. Led by one of the Druze minority group’s spiritual leaders, Hikmat al-Hijri, a unified command calling itself the “National Guard” formed in order to operate a semi-autonomous zone in Sweida.
The National Guard began receiving direct military, financial and logistical support from Israel, who have long sought to establish a Druze rump State in southern Syria, a goal that enables an even greater land grab, as well as opening up “David’s Corridor” [shown in blue below] spanning over to the Iraqi-Syrian border.

In the eyes of Syria’s leadership, the Druze issue is of great importance to solve for a range of reasons. One of which is that there is an enormous amount of sectarian tension, which various groups who form the new Syrian security apparatus, along with the Bedouin tribal forces, seek to punish following the bloodshed that began last July. It will also mean that technically, Syria will be one step closer to having one central government rule the entire country, which is a symbolic victory for Ahmed al-Shara’a.
However, the Israelis appear to have pre-empted such an offensive and committed a number of airstrikes as a warning to the Syrian leadership. There is clear anxiety over such a battle unfolding, because if it occurs, the Israeli military will be forced to intervene in order to save its Druze separatist allies.
As mentioned above, if things spiral out of control, the President himself cannot necessarily do much about it. That means that Syrian forces will likely begin to directly come into contact with the Israelis on the ground, something that could easily spiral.
Most of the fighters who have, for now, aligned themselves with the Syrian government are no fans of Israel, to say the least. This was on full display last December during the military parades conducted by Syria’s new armed forces, who openly chanted for Gaza, threatened Tel Aviv, and some even burned Israeli flags.
The alternative scenario for the Israelis in Syria may end up being worse, meaning that if they were to assassinate al-Shara’a, a power struggle would likely end up playing out on the streets of the Capital and throughout the country. So many different actors will seek to claim power.
Syria’s predicament has turned out to be less favourable to Tel Aviv, not because it poses an immediate strategic threat, but because almost anything is possible there. During the regional war between the Israeli-US alliance and the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance, one wrong misstep could prove fatal and open up yet another front, which will not only drain their resources but also weaken their ability to fight Hezbollah.
– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine.
Iran sets up ‘tollbooth’ system in Strait of Hormuz
The Cradle | April 2, 2026
Iran has formally started enforcing a controlled transit system in the Strait of Hormuz, requiring ships to undergo vetting and pay fees for safe passage, according to a report by Bloomberg on 1 April.
The report describes a system managed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), where vessels must submit their detailed information, including ownership, cargo, and crew, to an intermediary for review.
Ships are then screened for links to the US, Israel, or other states Tehran considers hostile, with only those cleared permitted to proceed under escort through a coastal corridor dubbed the “Iranian tollbooth.”
Once terms of passage are agreed, ships receive a permit code and designated route, which they must broadcast to Iranian patrol boats upon approach.
Iran’s parliament has already approved a draft law introducing transit fees and restrictions on vessels linked to the US, Israel, and sanctioning states, pending final ratification.
Negotiations over transit fees reportedly follow approval, with oil tankers typically charged from around $1 per barrel, and payments made in Chinese yuan or stablecoins – cryptocurrencies pegged to hard currency values.
With some tankers carrying up to or above two million barrels of crude, total costs can scale significantly, with at least one tanker having paid around $2 million to secure passage so far.
Iranian economist Hossein Raghfar projects Tehran could earn up to $60 billion annually by formalizing transit tariffs across the strait, describing control of the waterway as a “very powerful tool” that has shifted economic leverage in Iran’s favor.
Meanwhile, Iran’s oil sector is benefiting from the US-Israeli war, with revenues rising as global prices surge and exports continue largely uninterrupted.
Revenues from Iranian Light crude rose to about $139 million per day in March, while exports held near 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), even as other Gulf producers face disruption.
Several governments, including India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia, and China, are in direct talks with Tehran to coordinate vessel transits through the system
Wave 90: IRGC strikes US-linked industrial sites in Gulf
Al Mayadeen | April 2, 2026
Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) carried out a large-scale missile and drone operation targeting US-linked industrial and military sites across the Gulf, as part of the 90th wave of Operation True Promise 4.
The operation was launched by the IRGC Aerospace Force and the IRGC Navy in response to US aggression targeting Iran’s steel industry, which killed and injured multiple workers.
“We dedicate this operation to the families of the oppressed martyred workers and warn the delusional American president to refrain from repeating threats that could escalate the war beyond the region and make the world unsafe for America,” the IRGC underlined.
According to the statement, the operation targeted US steel and aluminum industries based in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, as well as facilities in Bahrain.
The strikes also hit remaining operational sections of US aluminum facilities that had not been damaged in previous attacks, in addition to sites linked to the Israeli military industries company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and a hideout of US forces near the Bahraini capital, Manama.
The statement confirmed that key sections of these sites were destroyed.
Casualties among US forces
The operation resulted in dozens of US personnel killed and wounded, according to the statement, with targeted areas immediately sealed off while ambulances continued evacuating casualties for hours.
The strikes unfolded in continuous waves, which began before dawn.
Iran stressed that the attack serves as a warning, affirming that any renewed aggression against its industrial sector will be met with a far more severe response. It warned that future operations could target critical infrastructure of the Israeli occupation and US economic interests across the region.
“These attacks are a warning, and if attacks on Iranian industries are repeated, the next response will be much more painful with attacks on the main infrastructure of the occupying regime (“Israel”) and American economic industries in the region,” the IRGC said.
Second phase of Wave 90
In an update released on Thursday afternoon, the IRGC said that its strikes also targeted major Israeli airbases, including the Tel Nof Airbase, the Palmachim Airbase, and the Ben Gurion Airport, a section of which is being used for aerial refueling operations.
The IRGC dedicated the second wave to Iranian citizens targeted by US-Israeli bombardment, saying that this set of strikes was in direct response to crimes committed by both regimes. The strikes also targeted Israeli occupation forces’ sites in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Eilat, al-Naqab, and Bir al-Sabe’. In the Gulf, the IRGC struck the Ahmad al-Jaber Airbase and the Ali al-Salem Airbases in Kuwait and the al-Kharj Airbase in Saudi Arabia.
Ballistic missiles, carrying heavy payloads, and one-way attack drones were utilized in the attacks.
According to the statement, another early warning radar, deployed in the al-Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, was also hit and destroyed.
Iran Says US-Israeli Claims of Its Military Strength Are Wrong
Sputnik – 02.04.2026
TEHRAN – The US and Israeli assessment of Iran’s military capabilities is inaccurate, Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesman for the Khatam Al-Anbiya central headquarters of the Iranian military command, said on Thursday amid claims by US President Donald Trump that Iran no longer posed a threat.
“Your information about Iran’s capabilities and military might, as well as our weapons, is incorrect. You do not know anything about our huge strategic potential,” Zolfaghari was quoted as saying by the Iranian state-run broadcaster IRIB.
The facilities destroyed during the attacks by the US and Israel were “nothing,” and the strategic facilities of the defense industry are located in places unknown to Washington, which “it cannot reach,” the spokesman added.
Zolfaghari also warned that the US and Israel should prepare for more powerful and large-scale strikes than before.
Trump’s April Fools’ Address to the nation
By Kelley Beaucar Vlahos | Responsible Statecraft | April 1, 2026
Washington was literally sizzling Wednesday with expectations ahead of President Donald Trump’s evening address on Iran. Would he announce a ceasefire? Would he just declare the war over, wash his hands of the mess, and leave the Strait of Hormuz to the Persian Gulf and Europe? What about a full land invasion?
Turns out he did none of that — except maybe the part about the Strait, but we’ll get to that in a second.
Trump gave a speech that analyst Dan DePetris noted should have been delivered before launching the attacks on Iran on Feb. 28. He spent much of the approximately 15 minutes building a case for bombing the hell out of Tehran for the last 30 days. “The most violent and thuggish regime on Earth,” it “continued their relentless quest for nuclear weapons and rejected every attempt at an agreement.” The U.S. had no choice. “We took them out. We took them all out so that no one would really dare stop them. And their race for a nuclear bomb, a nuclear weapon, a nuclear weapon like nobody has ever seen before, they were right at the doorstep.” He went on:
“Our objectives are very simple and clear. We are systematically dismantling the regime’s ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders. That means eliminating Iran’s Navy, which is now absolutely destroyed, hurting their air force and their missile program at levels never seen before, and annihilating their defense industrial base. We’ve done all of it. Their Navy is gone, their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten. Taken together. These actions will cripple Iran military, crush their ability to support terrorist proxies and deny them the ability to build a nuclear bomb. Our armed forces have been extraordinary. There’s never been anything like it. Militarily, everyone is talking about it, and tonight, I’m pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion.”
So the war is over right? Wrong. According to Trump the U.S. military has “crushed” Iran, but it’s not finished. “Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong. In the meantime, discussions are ongoing.” (As they say on social media, tell us Iran is fighting back without telling us Iran is fighting back.)
Again, Trump erroneously noted that while he didn’t want regime change “they’re all dead” and the “the new group is less radical and much more reasonable.” He said in his “two to three week” timetable, “if during this period of time… If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously. We have not hit their oil, even though that’s the easiest target of all, because it would not give them even a small chance of survival or rebuilding. But we could hit it and it would be gone. And there’s not a thing they could do about it.”
Iran can retaliate by hitting oil and energy plants in the region harder, but to mention that would say out loud that the Iranians can still fight and are not playing by our rules. Instead, he said not to worry about the high gasoline prices or the oil shortages; we don’t get our oil from the Persian Gulf, and we’ll get more from Venezuela anyway. As for all of the other global commerce which includes almost everything in our current supply chains, he was non-committal to opening up the Strait of Hormuz by force. In an auspicious twist, he put it on everyone else to open the Strait.
“So to those countries that can’t get fuel, many of which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran. We had to do it ourselves. I have a suggestion. Number one, buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty. We have so much,” he said. “And number two, build up some delayed courage. Should have done it before. Should have done it with us, as we asked, go to the Strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done, so it should be easy, and in any event, when this conflict is over, the Strait will open up naturally.”
Comparing the 30-day war to the length of the Korean War, Iraq, and World War I, Trump reached for a way to scold Americans for getting antsy but it somehow came off as boasting as though he could completely destroy an enemy in a much lesser time. “(The world) just can’t believe what they’re seeing… the brilliance of the United States military.”
What the world is seeing is this “decimated” Iran hitting targets across the Persian Gulf and in Israel consistently, all the way through the speech, according to Al Jazeera news. The price of oil is up, partners across the region are curtailing energy use and anticipating food shortages. This will hit American households no matter what Trump says. The war is not over not because he says so but because Iran has not given Trump the clear victory he wants. Tonight he clearly threatened more escalation, but it was not as defined as an announced land invasion. He all but said the Strait was not worth it.
Nor did he unilaterally “declare victory” to save face. He did not mention Israel once, but one could sense its influence in every line. Trump says he is going to “finish it” and “fast.” Unrelenting, unspecified violence. Anyone looking for more than that turned out to be an April Fool.
The killing of three Indonesian soldiers in Lebanon should remind Jakarta that Israel does not want peace
By Dr. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat | MEMO | April 1, 2026
Three Indonesian soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon in less than 48 hours. They were not fighters. They were part of a United Nations peacekeeping mission (UNIFIL). They were stationed in known positions. And still, they died.
This is not a tragic accident. It is a clear signal.
The sequence of events matters. On 29th March, a projectile struck a UN position near Adchit al-Qusayr, killing one Indonesian peacekeeper and critically injuring another. Hours later, a second incident—an explosion that destroyed a UN vehicle near Bani Hayyan—killed two more.
Three dead. In uniform. Under a UN flag.
The Israeli military says it is “reviewing” what happened and emphasises that these deaths occurred in an “active combat zone.” But that explanation is not convincing. UNIFIL positions are fixed, mapped, and communicated to all parties. Peacekeepers are not hidden actors. They are the most visible neutral presence in any conflict zone.
If they are being hit, it is not because they cannot be seen. It is because they are being disregarded.
That distinction matters. Because it speaks directly to intent.
Since early March, Israel has expanded its military campaign in Lebanon, pushing deeper into the south and openly pursuing a buffer zone up to the Litani River. This is not a limited operation. It is a widening one. It has already killed more than 1,200 people in Lebanon and displaced many more.
Peacekeepers are now operating inside a battlefield that is expanding by design.
And this is the point: states that are preparing for peace do not expand war zones. They do not normalize strikes in areas populated by international forces. They do not repeatedly hit locations that are clearly marked as neutral.
Israel’s conduct in Lebanon is not consistent with a state seeking de-escalation. It is consistent with one prioritizing military objectives over diplomatic constraints.
Indonesia’s response—condemnation, calls for investigation, appeals for restraint—is justified but insufficient. Because it avoids the larger conclusion that these events force upon us.
Indonesia continues to promote the two-state solution as the ultimate answer to the Palestinian issue. But that position now rests on assumptions that no longer hold.
A two-state solution requires, at minimum, that parties are moving toward coexistence. That territorial arrangements are negotiable. That violence is being contained, not expanded.
None of that is happening.
Instead, the conflict is widening geographically and intensifying militarily. What began as a confrontation involving Gaza has now spread across Lebanon and into a broader regional war involving Iran and the United States. The logic of escalation has overtaken the logic of negotiation.
And in that environment, the two-state solution is not a plan. It is a slogan.
The deaths of Indonesian soldiers should end the illusion.
These were not abstract victims. They were Indonesia’s direct contribution to international peacekeeping. They were deployed to uphold a system that depends on one basic principle: that neutral actors will be protected.
That principle is now collapsing.
UNIFIL itself has warned that attacks on peacekeepers may constitute war crimes. Yet such warnings have not altered behavior. Peacekeepers have been hit before in this conflict. They are being hit again. The pattern is clear.
At some point, repetition stops being accidental. It becomes structural.
Indonesia must respond accordingly.
Continuing to promote a two-state solution under these conditions is not principled diplomacy. It is a refusal to adapt. It ignores the fact that one side is actively reshaping the map through force while the other side lacks the capacity to negotiate from any meaningful position.
A policy built on outdated assumptions will not produce results. It will only produce more statements—more condemnations, more investigations, more funerals.
The government in Jakarta needs to abandon the illusion that those rights will be secured through a framework that no longer reflects reality.
The immediate priorities are clearer: enforce accountability for attacks on peacekeepers, push for enforceable ceasefires, and recognise that the current trajectory of Israeli military policy is not compatible with peace.
The deaths of three Indonesian soldiers are not a side effect of war. They are evidence of its direction.
And that direction is not toward peace.
Defeated and delusional: Netanyahu’s remarks reveal $80bn war failure, says analyst
Press TV – April 1, 2026
Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent statements on Iran, claiming that it no longer poses an existential threat to the regime is a complete strategic failure that suggests he is leaving office “defeated,” says an analyst.
Patricia Marins, a Brazilian military analyst, in a post on X on Thursday, characterized Netanyahu’s remarks not as a sign of strength, but as the ultimate admission of failure.
“There is nothing more defeatist than this. It is 100% defeatist rhetoric,” Marins said.
Her critique centers on the unfulfilled war objectives that Netanyahu himself had laid out.
According to Marins, he had consistently articulated three primary goals regarding Iran: regime change, limiting Iran’s missile capabilities, and dismantling its nuclear program.
“He has achieved none of these objectives,” Marins stated.
Instead, she maintained, the war has saddled Israel with staggering economic damage.
Marins cited operational costs and broader economic losses to paint a picture of a war that has yielded no strategic gains at a prohibitive financial price.
“He has saddled Israel with $60-80 billion in losses from this war,” she said, breaking down the daily expenditures. “Each day of operations, including interceptors and material damage, costs between $1.5-2 billion, based on the spending during the 12-day war.”
She noted that the full scope of the damage is still being calculated, with thousands of compensation claims already filed for direct damage caused by Iranian missile attacks.
The analyst said the Israeli ministry of finance estimates the broader economic loss at $3 billion per week.
Marins framed the outcome as a direct consequence of what she called Netanyahu’s “megalomania,” noting that his approach has created more problems than solutions.
The analyst suggested that Israel’s aggressive posture may have backfired strategically regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
“If the Iranians hadn’t built a nuclear weapon before, now they have every reason to do so,” Marins said.
Iran’s friends are about to make life much more difficult for Israel and the US
By Murad Sadygzade | RT | April 1, 2026
The war’s second ‘ring of fire’ is no longer forming around Iran. It is already there. What we are witnessing is not a limited clash between a state under pressure and its immediate enemies, but the gradual emergence of a wider regional confrontation in which Tehran’s allied forces are moving from symbolic solidarity to practical engagement.
In Lebanon, Iraq, and now once again in Yemen, groups aligned with Iran are opening new fronts and making any American or Israeli campaign far more difficult to execute. If Iran cannot stop pressure by matching superior military power plane for plane or missile for missile, it can still answer by stretching the battlefield across time and space.
That is the real significance of the current escalation. Wars are easiest to sell and easiest to sustain when they look concentrated, technically manageable, and politically clean. They become much harder to continue when every strike produces another zone of instability, when every advance prompts retaliation, and when every promise of decisive success runs into a new and costly complication.
Iran and the forces loyal to it understand this perfectly well. Their goal is not necessarily to win a spectacular conventional victory over Israel or the US. They are trying to deprive their adversaries of a quick result, to turn military superiority into strategic over-extension, and to make the price of escalation rise with every passing week.
Israel is getting mired in Lebanon
Lebanon has become the clearest example of this dynamic. Israel entered the confrontation with Hezbollah expecting that greater firepower, harsher pressure, and deeper incursions would eventually impose a new reality in the south of the country. But so far the campaign has not produced the kind of result Israeli leaders would need in order to claim genuine success. Israeli officials are still speaking openly about expanding operations and about the need for a broad security zone in southern Lebanon. That does not sound like a completed military mission. It sounds like a campaign still searching for a workable outcome.
Israel remains capable of inflicting enormous damage on Lebanon. It can devastate border villages and infrastructure, and force large numbers of people from their homes. But the ability to destroy is not the same as the ability to impose control. A military campaign can appear overwhelming on television and still fail to neutralize the armed force it was meant to break. Hezbollah remains capable of hitting Israeli territory, and that single fact tells us that the war in Lebanon has not been resolved in Israel’s favor.
Israel is also suffering losses, not only in military terms but in political and psychological terms. Reports of fallen soldiers and continuing battlefield casualties show that Hezbollah is still able to turn southern Lebanon into a dangerous combat zone for the Israeli army. This is important because Israel’s military doctrine relies heavily on speed, on offensive initiative, and on the demonstration of dominance. A campaign that drags on, consumes manpower, exposes soldiers to attrition, and leaves northern Israel under continuing threat is not simply unfinished. It becomes strategically corrosive. It undermines the image of effortless superiority on which deterrence partly depends.
There is also the issue of equipment and operational pressure. Public claims about destroyed Israeli vehicles are often difficult to verify independently, and any serious analysis should avoid repeating battlefield propaganda as fact. But even without dramatic and unverifiable numbers, the broader reality is evident.
Hezbollah continues to create an environment in which Israeli ground operations are costly, risky, and politically burdensome. Israel may seize or enter territory, but it still has not demonstrated that it can transform that presence into a stable and secure military arrangement. As long as Hezbollah keeps imposing losses on Israel, the campaign remains strategically incomplete.
Hezbollah is demonstrating to the entire pro-Iranian regional camp that Israel can be denied a clean military outcome. That message matters in Iraq, in Yemen, and in every arena where forces aligned with Tehran are watching closely. Every week in which Hezbollah continues to strike back weakens the notion that Israel and the US can simply pummel the region into submission through superior firepower. That perception encourages allied groups to escalate because it suggests that resistance is not futile and that prolonged confrontation can produce strategic leverage, even against a stronger opponent.
Iraqi fighters activate
Iraq is the second arena where this logic is becoming visible. For years, Washington tried to handle pro-Iranian armed groups in Iraq through a familiar formula of pressure, selective strikes, deterrent warnings, and political bargaining. That formula is now under severe strain. The Iraqi factions loyal to Iran are again attacking Western interests and American-linked facilities, and their posture is hardening as the regional crisis grows. Any American move toward direct ground involvement against Iran would not remain confined to Iranian territory. It would immediately activate the Iraqi theatre in a much more serious way.
That possibility is now being discussed with increasing seriousness because Iraqi armed groups are presenting themselves as a reserve force that could mobilize in Iran’s favor if the war enters a more dangerous phase. This is not yet a mass transnational deployment on a scale that would determine the outcome of a large war by itself. But that is not the most important issue. The key point is that the Iraqi arena is being prepared politically, organizationally, and psychologically as an extension of the Iranian front. If Washington were to attempt a ground operation against Iran, it would face not one battlefield but several at once.
Washington appears to have assumed that by concentrating military pressure on Iran, it could either isolate Tehran or intimidate its regional allies into caution. But the opposite dynamic is taking shape. Pressure on the center is activating the periphery. Iran’s allies do not need to defeat the US or Israel in direct set-piece battles – only to ensure that no front can be fully closed, no rear area can be treated as safe, and no military plan can be presented as limited and controllable. That alone is enough to alter the political mathematics of war.
The Iraqi dimension is especially dangerous because it sits at the intersection of military operations, internal state weakness, and competing sovereignties. Iraq is not a sealed theatre. It is a country in which militias, parties, foreign forces, and state institutions coexist uneasily. Any renewed cycle of attacks on Western targets can therefore produce consequences far beyond the immediate strike. It can reignite internal tensions, weaken already fragile governance, increase pressure on the Iraqi government, and deepen the long-running struggle over whether Iraq is a sovereign balancing state or a contested zone inside a larger regional conflict. Once that process begins to accelerate, it becomes very difficult to contain.
Yemeni Houthis can shock the global economy
Yet the most strategically explosive development may be the renewed role of Ansar Allah (the Houthis) in Yemen. For nearly a month, the movement was relatively restrained in this specific phase of escalation. That relative quiet led some observers to believe that Yemen might remain a secondary theatre while events centered on Iran, Lebanon, and the Gulf. But this reading now looks premature. Ansar Allah has signaled a return to direct action against Israel, and even more importantly, it has once again raised the specter of pressure on maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
That threat cannot be dismissed as rhetorical theater. Bab el-Mandeb is one of the great chokepoints of the global economy. It connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, which means it is part of the shortest maritime route between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal. If this corridor becomes unsafe on a sustained basis, the consequences extend far beyond the region. Shipping companies reroute. Insurance premiums surge. Delivery times lengthen. Fuel costs rise. Supply chains absorb new friction. The shock travels outward through freight markets, commodity prices, and industrial planning. In the modern world, a narrow stretch of water can become a multiplier of global instability.
This is why even the threat of closure is almost as bad as closure itself. Markets do not wait patiently for a waterway to be blocked in definite terms before reacting. They respond to risk. If Ansar Allah signals that ships tied to Israel or to its supporters may face attack, and if the movement demonstrates that this threat is credible, then the commercial effect begins long before a formal blockade exists. Some carriers will avoid the route. Others will demand sharply higher rates. Naval escorts may become more common. A military problem turns into a commercial one, and a commercial problem soon becomes a macroeconomic one.
A serious disruption in Bab el-Mandeb would also hit the Gulf states in complicated ways. On the surface, high oil prices often appear beneficial for energy exporters. But in wartime the picture is much less straightforward. Gulf monarchies depend not only on price levels but also on predictable flows, secure shipping, investor confidence, infrastructure safety, and the broader perception that the region remains a viable center for trade and finance. A war that pushes up energy prices while simultaneously making maritime transit less secure can produce gains on one side and losses on the other. It can raise revenue while also raising risk. It can improve the price per barrel while damaging the political and logistical environment needed to move that barrel efficiently.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in particular would face a difficult balancing act. Both states have tried to reduce their exposure to open-ended regional wars while preserving close security relationships with Washington. But a wider confrontation involving Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and Israel would undermine that balancing strategy. Even if they avoid direct military participation, they remain physically embedded in the conflict zone. Their ports, export routes, desalination infrastructure, airports, and industrial facilities exist within missile and drone range of hostile actors. In other words, geography limits neutrality. The Gulf states can try to hedge politically, but they cannot fully hedge physically.
A regional war goes global
The effects on the global economy could be severe if this pattern continues. The most obvious risk is a combined shock to energy and logistics. If pressure on the Strait of Hormuz coincides with renewed disruption in Bab el-Mandeb, the world economy would face stress on two of its most sensitive arteries at once. Oil prices would rise not simply because of lost supply, but because of fear, insurance costs, and the scarcity premium that always appears when multiple chokepoints are threatened simultaneously. Gas markets would become more nervous. Shipping costs would climb. Import-dependent economies would feel the squeeze first, especially poorer countries already vulnerable to debt, inflation, and food insecurity.
This is how regional wars become global economic events. They do not need to shut every route completely or destroy every refinery to trigger wider consequences. They only need to make enough critical routes uncertain at the same time. Once uncertainty spreads across energy and transport, it feeds into everything else: Freight becomes more expensive, manufacturing inputs arrive later, food prices rise through transport and fertilizer costs, central banks face renewed inflation pressure and governments face budget strain. Political instability follows economic stress, especially in countries where societies are already exhausted by previous shocks.
Have the US and Israel miscalculated?
All of this points to a broader conclusion. The conflict is expanding because the forces aligned with Iran are deliberately making it expand. Their strategy is not based on rapid decision or spectacular breakthrough. It is based on the controlled multiplication of pressure points. Hezbollah keeps the northern Israeli front unstable. Iraqi factions raise the cost of any deeper American military involvement. Ansar Allah threatens one of the world’s most important maritime corridors. Iran itself remains the central actor, but it does not need to act alone in a linear and isolated fashion. Its allies provide strategic depth, geographical spread, and the ability to transform one war into several interconnected confrontations.
From this perspective, American planners appear to have miscalculated. They may have believed that forceful pressure would narrow Iran’s options and restore deterrence. Instead, it risks producing the opposite result. Rather than isolating Iran, escalation is drawing its allied forces more tightly into the conflict. Rather than shortening the crisis, it is lengthening it. Rather than concentrating the battlefield, it is fragmenting it across the region. That is a dangerous trajectory, because a dispersed war is often harder to win than a concentrated one. It taxes logistics, political patience, alliance cohesion, and public confidence all at once.
What happens next will depend on whether the US and Israel continue to believe that greater military pressure can still produce strategic clarity. That belief now looks increasingly questionable. The longer the war continues without a decisive and stable outcome in Lebanon, the more confidence Hezbollah and its allies will gain. The more American assets are threatened in Iraq, the more difficult it becomes to present deeper intervention as manageable. The more Ansar Allah raises the cost of shipping through Bab el-Mandeb, the more the conflict escapes the boundaries of local war and enters the realm of global economic disruption.
The likely consequence is not a clean victory for any side, but a long phase of attritional regional instability. Israel may continue to intensify its campaign in Lebanon because it has not yet achieved the result it wants. Iraqi militias may continue attacking Western targets while preparing politically for a wider war. Ansar Allah may increase the use of maritime pressure because it understands that chokepoints can generate strategic effect far beyond Yemen itself. Iran, for its part, will keep trying to turn every enemy move into a trigger for wider overextension. It does not need to win in one dramatic moment. It only needs to ensure that its adversaries cannot close the conflict on their terms.
That is the central lesson of the present moment. Military superiority does not automatically translate into political success, especially in a region where allied non-state actors can open multiple fronts with relative flexibility. The US and Israel retain enormous destructive capacity. But destruction is not the same thing as control, and control is not the same thing as victory.
In that sense, the strategic initiative is no longer defined only by who can strike harder. It is increasingly defined by who can force the other side to fight on too many maps at once. Iran and the forces loyal to it appear determined to do exactly that. They are trying to stretch the conflict in time, to stretch it across geography, and to erode the ability of their adversaries to maintain focus. For now, that strategy is working far better than many in the US and Israel.
Murad Sadygzade is President of the Middle East Studies Center, Visiting Lecturer, HSE University (Moscow).
The war of liberation of the Arab and Islamic peoples expands across the Gulf
By Eduardo Vasco | Strategic Culture Foundation | April 1, 2026
Another country has joined the war against the United States and Israel: Iraq. Not officially, of course. The Iraqi state has not declared war on anyone, nor has it signaled direct participation in the conflict that began a month ago, when Washington and Tel Aviv began cowardly attacks against Iran.
But the Iraqi state is not particularly relevant for the purposes of this article. This is because, similarly to Lebanon, Iraq has lived for more than a decade under a kind of dual power: the state, represented by its institutions controlled by the ruling classes, the national bourgeoisie, large landowners, and bureaucrats aligned with the United States; and, on the other hand, an extremely powerful popular armed organization: the Popular Mobilization Forces.
At the same time that the Iraqi army was collapsing, the Shiite militias were fundamental in resisting the American occupation and in defeating the Islamic State nearly ten years ago—just as Hezbollah was responsible for expelling the Israeli army from Lebanon in 2006. And, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the PMF gained enormous authority due to the role they played in the war of national liberation. Unlike Hezbollah, they are a united front of various organizations, but they are also Shiite—thus representing the most oppressed masses of the country—exist thanks to the coordination carried out by General Qassem Soleimani, and are to some extent integrated into the Iraqi state apparatus—part of them are paramilitary forces that obey the armed forces, and their political organs have representation in parliament and even in ministries.
This demonstrates the power of the PMF. The state was forced to integrate them into its structure in order to control them. However, what has been happening is that they are winning the hearts and minds of the military itself, thanks to their example of selflessness in the struggle against the enemies of the Iraqi people and the Arab and Islamic peoples: imperialism and Zionism.
Since the beginning of the genocidal war in Gaza and Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, their fighters have carried out a series of military actions against targets in Israel and American military bases in Iraq and Syria. American attacks against Iraqi militias—whether from outside, violating Iraq’s sovereignty, or from within, violating agreements with the government regarding troop presence—have strained relations between the Iraqi state and imperialism.
Although at first Iraqi institutions feared confronting the United States (for example, the judiciary ordered the arrest of those responsible for the attack on the Ayn al-Assad airbase in August 2024), the continuous disrespect by the U.S. toward the Iraqi people and territory forced authorities to change their position: government, parliament, and army began opposing the U.S. military presence. More than a shift in perspective, they were compelled to adopt this stance to avoid losing even more ground to the PMF, seen by the Iraqi people as the main bastion of the struggle for national sovereignty. The army, for example, could not remain passive while forces under its command were repeatedly attacked by a foreign power—the same power that invaded, destroyed, and subjugated the country for over a decade.
Thus, at the end of 2024, the Iraqi government and parliament approved the end of the international coalition imposed on Iraq by the United States under the pretext of fighting the Islamic State. Troops only left the federal unit in January 2026. Likewise, Iraq expelled the United Nations Assistance Mission, created in 2003 to help reorganize the country for imperialist exploitation.
In any case, U.S. and European imperialist troops continue to operate on Iraqi territory—at least 2,500 in the autonomous Kurdistan region—violating Iraq’s integrity and sovereignty. They are expected to leave by September, and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has indicated to the press that they should depart even sooner. His argument is that an Iraq free of foreign troops would facilitate the disarmament of resistance groups, which would no longer have reason to remain armed—a balanced position, although it reveals the discomfort of the state bureaucracy and ruling class with an armed population, yet still more measured than that of the Lebanese government, which is attempting to forcibly disarm Hezbollah while effectively handing over the country’s territory to Israel. Sudani and his government have been struggling to control the PMF, even after last year’s reform aimed at reducing their autonomy.
After numerous violations by U.S. armed forces and proportional retaliation by the PMF, Iraqi authorities—certainly under overwhelming popular pressure—authorized all security forces in the country, including the PMF, to “act under the principle of the right of response and self-defense” against any attacks on their positions. The authorization came immediately after a U.S. bombing killed 15 fighters, including leaders, at PMF headquarters in Anbar province. The Iraqi Joint Operations Command directly blamed the U.S. and Israel for the strike.
This marks a turning point both for the Iraqi armed resistance and for the entire regional Axis of Resistance. The Iraqi state itself was forced to recognize the authority of the PMF, which now gains significant momentum. While they can increase their popularity among the masses and among lower and mid (or even higher) ranks of the state bureaucracy, they also bind the Iraqi state to defending the country—meaning a further shift toward a position opposing the United States and Israel.
According to the pro-U.S. outlet Alhurra, sources close to Prime Minister al-Sudani said he faced “internal pressure” to approve the pro-PMF measure and that the “majority voice” within the national security council supported it.
The most reactionary regimes in the Gulf understand the situation. The Jordanian monarchy, a vassal of imperialism and Zionism and an enemy of Iran and the Arab and Islamic peoples, called on Baghdad to follow the example of Lebanon’s puppet government and repudiate resistance actions. This appeal will not be heeded. It is already somewhat too late for that.
With the PMF joining the anti-imperialist war, the Axis of Resistance is significantly strengthened. In 2022, they had 230,000 members. It is very likely that this number has increased considerably. Likewise, with this endorsement from the Iraqi government, their popularity may grow even further and their ranks multiply. Thanks to Iranian support, their arsenal includes tanks, missiles, mortars, rockets, drones, and more.
The entry of the Iraqi resistance into the war also encourages other forces in the region. There are reports that Islamic resistance in Jordan has also attacked a U.S. base earlier this week, acting for the first time since the war began. Ansarallah, for its part, also officially announced its entry into the war last weekend.
What remains of the U.S. presence in Iraq had already been targeted by the PMF—for example, the Victory base in Baghdad and the Erbil airbase in Kurdistan. Even the U.S. diplomatic presence is under pressure: on the first day of the aggression, when the United States and Israel martyred Khamenei and 160 Iranian girls, a crowd attempted to storm Baghdad’s Green Zone, where major government buildings and Western embassies are located. It and the Al-Rashid Hotel in that protected zone were also struck by drones. In Erbil, at least one French soldier was killed and others injured in a resistance operation against the invaders.
Some organizations within the PMF also carried out attacks against American targets in Gulf countries governed by imperialist-backed regimes. The group Saraya Awliya al-Dam, responsible for some of these attacks, warned that any additional U.S. troop deployments to the Middle East “will compel us to intensify operations against the American presence in any country.”
Thanks to the PMF, imperialism was forced to end its official occupation of Iraq after years of destruction that began with the 2003 invasion. Thanks to them, the Islamic State—serving imperialist interests in the region—was defeated about ten years ago. Thanks to them, the Iraqi government imposed a withdrawal of U.S. and allied troops at the end of last year. And now, thanks to them, what remains of the imperialist presence in Iraq may be nearing its end.
This is a great service to the Iraqi people and to all peoples of the Middle East, as each American base destroyed or closed is a blow against imperialist presence in the region—a blow against the subjugation of those peoples. It is another step toward the definitive liberation of the Arab and Islamic peoples.
Envoy warns UN on Trump’s threat to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s civilian infrastructure
Press TV – April 1, 2026
Iranian Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations Amir Saeid Iravani says US President Donald Trump’s threats to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure is a blatant violation of international law.
In a letter addressed to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and the president of the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday, Iravani drew the urgent attention of UN chief and the members of the Security Council “to yet another explicit and escalating threat issued by the President of the United States against the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
In a public social media post published on Monday, Trump openly threatened that should an agreement with Iran not be reached “shortly”, the US would “blow up and completely obliterate” Iran’s critical civilian infrastructure, including its electric generating plants, oil facilities, Kharg Island, a sea port for the export of up to 90% of Iran’s oil products, and all desalination facilities.
This follows his earlier threat on March 21 to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants, “starting with the biggest one first.”
“The deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure … for the purposes of economic coercion, collective punishment, or with the intent to terrorize the civilian population, constitutes a serious violation of international humanitarian law and amounts to war crimes,” the letter said.
The letter called on the UN to unequivocally condemn these explicit threats, take all necessary measures to prevent the realization of such unlawful threats, and hold the US accountable for any consequences arising from such threats.
In response to deliberate and unlawful attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, the letter said, the Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its inherent right of self-defense under Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations and will undertake all necessary and proportionate measures to fully safeguard its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and vital national interests.
In another letter to the UN on Tuesday, Iravani addressed US-Israeli strikes on UN offices in Tehran. “Iran strongly condemns these heinous and brutal attacks against the United Nations,” it said.
The letter called on Guterres to ensure the protection and inviolability of United Nations premises in all member states and formally and vigorously denounce the attacks.
The illegal US-Israeli aggression on Iran began on February 28 with airstrikes that assassinated senior Iranian officials and commanders.
The Iranian armed forces have responded by launching almost daily missile and drone operations targeting locations in the Israeli occupied territories as well as US military bases and assets across the region.
They have also blocked the strategic Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas tankers affiliated with the adversaries and those cooperating with them.
The Larak Corridor: Iran’s Rial Gate With No US, No Israel, and No Way Around
By Freddie Ponton | 21st Century Wire | April 1, 2026
While MOW Secretary Pete Hegseth was telling other nations to “step up” in the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump was already backing away, insisting its security was “not for us.” In between those contradictions, Washington dumped a fog of conflicting slogans on the public—slogans that never looked like strategy so much as panicked improvisation. That confusion is not a sideshow to the war, but the political static masking a brutal reality. While the White House and its zionist neocon war camp lurch between bluff and retreat, Iran has been moving with cold discipline, quietly building what Iranian reporting calls the Larak Corridor and what maritime trackers have identified as a tightly managed lane through the Qeshm-Larak gap inside Iranian waters.
Around Larak, Tehran is no longer just reacting to an illegal war launched against it. It is turning battlefield pressure into procedure, selective access, and proposed law, using a controlled corridor and a wider Hormuz management plan to show that the old fantasy of automatic Western command over this chokepoint is breaking down in real time. The truth of the war is not found in the bombast coming out of Washington; instead you will find it in the places where power is actually shifting, and right now, one of those places is a narrow strip of water off Larak, where Iran looks calmer, more deliberate, and more in command of events than the people who thought they could bomb it into submission.
The Day Hormuz Moved on Iran’s Terms
The Strait of Hormuz has not been shut, and that is exactly why what Iran has done matters more. What has emerged around Larak is not a crude blockade but a controlled passage system, a wartime checkpoint laid across one of the most important arteries of the world economy. Iranian reporting most often calls it the Larak Corridor. At the same time, the broader phrase Larak-Qeshm Corridor is best understood as a geographic description of the lane running through the narrow gap between those two islands inside Iranian waters.
Names are not cosmetic here. Western and trade coverage tend to speak of a route between Qeshm and Larak. Iranian coverage roots it in Larak itself, in Iranian-managed waters, under Iranian rules. That is the quiet shift the war has produced. For decades, the story of Hormuz was told from the deck of a U.S. carrier. Today, one of its key arteries is being renamed and reorganised from a small island most Western audiences have never been asked to think about.
Iran appears to be building a differentiated transit regime, not a universal shutdown. That means the market consequence is not simply “less supply,” but a more political energy map in which some buyers and shippers face privileged access while others face delay, denial, or sharply higher costs.
That is the part of the story that cuts through the propaganda. A total closure would have been easy to denounce and easy to rally against. A selective corridor is harder to attack because it allows Tehran to say that passage has not ended, only the assumption that ships can move through Iranian waters during an illegal war on Iran without submitting to Iranian conditions.
This is why Larak matters. It is where Iran stopped merely threatening the map and started administering it.
The lane at Larak
The outlines of the new lane are now visible. The Larak Corridor is not a return to normal traffic. It is a filtered, low-volume, politically segmented route for approved movement. Trade and maritime analysis has traced authorised vessels through the five-mile gap between Qeshm and Larak, close to the Iranian coast and under a web of Iranian surveillance and intervention capacity. Iranian and Arabic reporting has described a safe corridor around or between Larak and Qeshm, never a full reopening of the strait, even though yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that the Bahman pier on the eastern side of Qeshm Island was attacked, according to a statement from Hormozgan governor’s office relayed by Iranian state-affiliated media ISNA. Qeshm overlooks the Clarence Strait in the Strait of Hormuz and is referred to by the locals as “Kuran”, Iran’s main launchpad for its asymmetric naval warfare. In early March, the Israeli/US war machine had targeted a desalination plant on Qeshm Island, leaving 30 villages without water.
That low-volume point changes everything. The lane exists in deliberate contrast to prewar patterns. UN-linked reporting put pre-crisis traffic through Hormuz at roughly 130 ships a day. Against that baseline, the authorised trickle through Larak is not evidence of restored normality but a clear indication that normality has been replaced by a rationed flow that Iran alone can modulate.
The lane also stratifies states. Some governments have secured negotiated passage, some ships have moved after prior coordination and documentation, and others have been turned back or discouraged from approaching in the first place. The result is not an open sea but a tiered system in which diplomatic posture, sanctions alignment, and wartime behaviour shape access to one of the world’s central energy routes.
Calling this a blockade is comfortable for Western officials, but it is wrong. A blockade denies passage to provoke a fight. The Larak Corridor functions more like a wartime border crossing, granting passage conditionally, keeping discretionary power in Iranian hands, and making political hierarchy visible on the water.
Force became law
The story becomes more serious once you see that Tehran is not leaving this system in the realm of ad hoc force, but instead the Islamic Republic of Iran is building a legal scaffold around it.
Parliamentary reporting confirms that Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has approved an eight-point Strait of Hormuz Management Plan. The plan is built around eight clear pillars: securing the strait, ensuring ship safety, addressing environmental risks, establishing financial arrangements with a rial-based toll system, banning American and Israeli vessels from passage, asserting Iran’s sovereign authority and that of its armed forces, cooperating with Oman on the legal framework, and prohibiting entry to any state that participates in unilateral sanctions against Iran.

Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Eight Pillars Management Plan
A parallel description from Xinhuanet states that the measure gathered more than 250 signatures and outlines four immediate objectives: ensuring shipping security, charging environmental polluters, collecting fees for guidance services, and establishing a regional development fund funded by the toll regime. Those details matter as they show that Tehran is not marketing this as a simple wartime levy, but as sovereign administration over safety, environmental protection, navigational management, revenue, and regional development.
It is crucial to be precise. The plan is not yet fully enacted into law. Committee approval is significant because it codifies the logic of the corridor and signals an intention to turn military practice into statute, but Iranian reporting makes clear that key elements are still in the phase of initial measures and continued drafting. That does not weaken the argument. It actually strengthens it. The turning point is not when the last procedural stamp is applied, but when a state under attack openly decides to legislate the war’s new realities into its domestic legal order.
The Oman clause is one of the plan’s sharpest edges. Iranian reporting says Oman must be present in the legal regime and coordination structure because the southern side of the strait is Omani. At the same time, a parliamentary voice emphasised that in matters of toll collection “the essence of the matter is in Iran’s hands,” and that Iran is the party positioned to collect fees, while Oman’s place is in cooperation and coordination, not revenue capture.
In other words, Tehran is regionalising the legal façade without diluting operational control. Omani decrees from 2025 ratifying broader cooperation and legal-judicial accords with Iran give this move a pre-existing legal context, making the Hormuz framework look less like a unilateral edict and more like a hard extension of bilateral agreements into wartime management.
This is what it means for force to become law. Iran is not simply blocking ships. It is regulating them, invoicing them, and giving itself the legal language to defend that behaviour once the guns fall quiet.
Islands’ sovereignty and the human layer
Strip Larak from its geography and you miss half the story. Hormuz cannot be seen as just another free-floating blue line on an analyst’s map. It is a dense, lived space of islands, coastlines, fishing ports, naval outposts, and communities that have grown up under the shadow of foreign fleets and sanctions.
For half a century, the world has been taught to treat the islands of Abu Musa and the Tunbs as footnotes, little “disputed” specks on the map. In reality, they, along with Qeshm and Larak, sit inside a network of surveillance and reach that allows Iran to watch, shape, and, when necessary, squeeze movement at the mouth of the Gulf. The Larak Corridor is not a freakish one-off. It grows out of a sovereignty geography that has been quietly undermining the fiction of an “American lake” in Hormuz for decades.
There is a human layer that rarely makes it into Western press. Iran’s maritime posture is not only the work of admirals in Tehran, but it also rests on coastal communities, port workers, pilots, and the broader ecosystem that includes the Naval Basij, the volunteer maritime defence network you researched earlier. That network, with its small craft, its local knowledge, and its political symbolism, has always been part of how Iran thinks about defending the strait, not simply by hardware but by socialised resistance.
For people living on those coasts, the corridor is not a theoretical legal innovation. It is one of the few visible signs, in the middle of bombardment and assassination, that their state can still impose some order at the place where global power once promised them none. Seen from there, the Larak Corridor looks less like opportunism and more like a resilient country insisting that sovereignty is not an abstract word but something that can be exercised in a specific channel of water under fire.
The Gulf pays for the war
The political brilliance of the Larak move is in who gets billed for it: not Washington first, not Tel Aviv first, but the Gulf order that enabled this war and is now trapped in its consequences.
Gulf governments were not properly warned, their objections were ignored, and Europe was largely marginalised from the decision-making that triggered the regional blowback they are now paying for.
That one sentence punctures the comforting story that the old security architecture still works. Some Gulf capitals had urged Washington not to attack Iran. Some tried to keep a distance from the opening salvo. Europe itself was treated less like a partner than a spectator told to brace for impact.
The cost has not been theoretical. Freight risk exploded. Insurance premiums climbed. Cargo timetables turned into contingency plans. The “guarantee” on offer from Washington turns out to be a package in which Gulf states host bases, bankroll weapons, and then absorb the retaliation and economic shock once the trigger is pulled.
The evidence of fatigue is patchy but real. Saudi Arabia has intensified direct contacts with Iran. Regional diplomacy has tried to put some sort of brake on escalation. At the same time, influential Gulf voices still speak of the need to degrade Iranian capabilities, not simply to stop the war. That tension is important as it shows a region caught between fear of Iran and a growing recognition that the American-led order is no longer a stable shelter.
Larak turns that contradiction from an argument into a daily experience. Every tanker that has to negotiate with Tehran, every nervous call from an insurer, or every investor wondering whether to avoid Gulf exposure. All of it drives home the same lesson. A war on Iranian sovereignty will not remain confined to Iranian soil or to the screens of Western news shows. It will leak into ports, pipelines, desalination plants, stock exchanges, and households across the Gulf.
From a pro-peace, pro-sovereignty perspective, that is the real indictment. The architecture that claimed to keep the region safe has delivered a crisis that no one can turn off without Iran’s involvement.
Beyond the dollar and toward the Global South
Although it may sound like a speculative slogan about some future yuan world, it is a description of an experiment already underway. Iran’s proposed Hormuz management plan speaks in the language of rial-based tolls and financial arrangements. Broader analysis around the corridor connects that direction of travel to non-Western settlement channels and to the wider de-dollarisation agenda now running through BRICS and the Global South.
The point is not that the petrodollar disappears tomorrow. It is that under bombardment, and with its conventional military apparatus under fire, Iran is still moving a slice of energy trade onto monetary rails where Washington’s sanctions power is weaker.
Hormuz is doubling as a testbed for de-dollarized energy payments.
China’s experiment with yuan-settled LNG from Qatar in 2023 showed that Gulf energy can clear outside dollar channels when states choose to build the infrastructure. Iran’s 2023 agreement with the UAE to use the dirham in bilateral trade, while imperfect because of the dirham’s peg, still represents a deliberate shift into regional banking circuits that cost Washington more to police. Meanwhile, BRICS has been advancing alternative payment mechanisms and settlement systems designed precisely to chip away at dollar centrality.
The Larak Corridor slots into this picture with unnerving ease. It rewards states willing to engage with Tehran rather than join the sanctions chorus. It opens space for deals denominated in rial, dirham, or yuan. It demonstrates that a Global South state under open attack can still exert leverage over the physical and financial pathways through which the world’s energy moves.
Tehran is not claiming a clean victory over the dollar. What it is doing is more subversive. It is using the war to erase the assumption that Washington can both close and reopen Hormuz at will, militarily and financially. Every transaction that clears outside Western rails, every ship that goes through a lane managed on Iranian terms, is another chip knocked out of a system that has long treated Gulf energy as an American instrument first and a regional lifeline second.
That is why the story of Larak is not simply a regional shipping story, but rather a frontline in the contest over who writes the rules of the global economy.
The old order is cracking
What has happened at Larak is not the final victory of a new world, but it is one of the clearest signs that the old one is cracking in real time.
For decades, the script ran on autopilot. The United States secured the sea lanes. The Gulf monarchies supplied the fuel. The dollar priced it. Everyone else adjusted. The war on Iran was supposed to be another scene in that familiar play. Instead, it exposed how much of it had become theatre.
Iran’s answer didn’t need to be polite, and it was never meant to be. It was disciplined, coercive, and grounded in the one thing Washington cannot replace with rhetoric, the geographic reality of where Hormuz actually lies. Tehran avoided the trap of a universal shutdown and built a mechanism that punishes enemies, rewards accommodation, and keeps the region inside a rolling uncertainty that no press conference in Washington can dispel.
That is why the phrase differentiated transit regime carries so much weight in this war. It captures the fact that what is happening off Larak is not chaos. It is governance under attack. It is a sovereign state, bombed and sanctioned, insisting that it still has the right to decide who crosses its doorstep and on what terms.
For people in the Gulf, it is about whether their ports can stay open, whether their desalination plants keep running, and whether their economies can withstand another cycle of manufactured crisis. For people in Iran, it is about whether anything in their immediate environment still belongs to them after decades of war, sanctions, and threats of regime change.
Seen from that angle, the Larak Corridor is not a provocation. It is a verdict. Peace will not come from pretending the old arrangement can simply be restored. It will come, if it comes at all, when the region and the wider world accept the reality written into the water off Larak. A Gulf built on assaults against Iranian sovereignty cannot remain prosperous, stable, or truly sovereign itself. Not now, and not in the long term.
Iran’s navy has been battered. Its cities have been hit. Its leaders have been hunted. Yet at the most critical chokepoint on earth, the war machine that promised to reopen the map still cannot make Hormuz move on its own terms.
Sovereignty, once attacked, does not always retreat. Sometimes it answers by redrawing the map and forcing those who lit the fire to live with the new lines.
‘Economic terrorism’: Steel facilities hit again in US-Israeli strike
Press TV – April 1, 2026
Isfahan’s Mobarakeh Steel Company says it has been attacked for a second time by the US-Israeli aggression.
In a statement released on Wednesday, the company said warplanes targeted a number of vital sections of its infrastructure at 23:00 p.m. local time Tuesday.
Initial assessments indicate the attack has caused significant damage to several parts of the company, the report said.
The enemy also targeted a subsidiary of Mobarakeh Steel Company called Sefid Dasht Steel Company in the southwestern Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province.
Due to policies put in place after the previous attack on Thursday, only a small number of employees were present and just a few of them suffered minor injuries, according to the statement.
The Mobarakeh Steel Company is Iran’s largest steel producer and one of the biggest industrial complexes in West Asia and North Africa, playing a central role in the country’s steel industry.
In another attack on one of Iran’s most important industrial units, the Khuzestan Steel Company was also targeted on Friday, which caused damage to parts of its facilities.
Iran’s Human Rights Organization issued a statement on Wednesday, condemning the US-Israeli aggression’s “systematic strikes” against civilian infrastructure.
“These attacks are a blatant violation of international law and a form of economic terrorism and their goal is to put maximum pressure on Iran’s civilian population,” it said.
Factories, including steel plants, are the main livelihood of millions of Iranians and the aggression’s goal of destroying them is a clear violation of Geneva Conventions and a war crime.
The organization called on the international community to break its silence on the US-Israeli aggression war crimes against Iran’s populace and hold the enemy accountable for its violation of human rights.
The US and Israeli armed forces launched their military aggression against Iran in late February by attacking 30 targets across Tehran, assassinating Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and several senior Iranian officials.
Since then, Iranian armed forces have retaliated swiftly by launching barrages of missiles and drones at Israeli‑occupied territories as well as US bases across the region.
Iranian officials say targeting US military bases in the region constitutes “legitimate self‑defense.”
Referring to Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, they say Iran has the legal right to defend itself against “acts of aggression” by the US or the Israeli regime.

