Iran, China & Russia v. Trump /Glenn Diesen & Lt Col Daniel Davis
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – April 15, 2026
Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz during 10-day ceasefire
By Kurt Nimmo | Another Day in the Empire | April 17, 2026
The Prime Minister of Lebanon, Nawaf Salam, thanked President Trump for a ten-day ceasefire announced on Truth Social that took effect at 5PM on Thursday, April 16. Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the US-brokered deal, but with the same caveat imposed after Hamas conducted its Operation Al-Aqsa Flood breakout and offensive on October 7, 2023.
Israel reserves the right, the US State Department said, to carry out strikes in Lebanon “at any time” under Article 3 of the agreement. Netanyahu’s carte blanche states:
“Israel shall preserve its right to take all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks. This shall not be impeded by the cessation of hostilities. Besides this, it will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military, and other state targets, in the territory of Lebanon by land, air, and sea.”
A similar double standard permitted Israel to violate the Gaza ceasefire agreement at least 2,400 times from October 10, 2025 to April 14, 2026, killing more than 700 Palestinians in the process.
“Israel has made a mockery of the supposed ceasefire agreements in both Lebanon and Palestine,” writes Maryam Jameela for The Canary. “They’re able to keep killing people, and to keep restricting the necessary conditions for life because international governments continue to allow them to.”
In Lebanon, Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh insisted his country is part of the US-brokered ceasefire arranged between Iran and Israel. Ibrahim al-Moussawi, a Hezbollah lawmaker, said the group would respect the deal if Israel did not target Hezbollah.
Trump said Hezbollah is party to the ceasefire and added that the government of Joseph Aoun will work to disarm the resistance group. “They’re going to be having a ceasefire and that will include Hezbollah,” the president told reporters. He added that he hopes “Hezbollah will behave.”
The paramilitary group, formed in the early 1980s during the Lebanese Civil War in response to an Israeli invasion and occupation of south Lebanon, insists it will not disarm. “We will not surrender or give up to Israel,” said Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem last July. “Israel will not take our weapons away from us.” In November, after assassinating Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff, Haytham Ali Tabatabai, Netanyahu called on the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, a task it is not capable of accomplishing.
Israeli Media: Ceasefire is a “Double Submission”
In Israel, response to the ten-day ceasefire was met with anger and hostility by officials, journalists, and analysts. According to Israeli Channel 14, Netanyahu’s cabinet members reacted angrily at learning of the deal through social media. Israeli media framed the ceasefire as a betrayal and sellout to Hezbollah.
Marwa Osman, a journalist and television show host in Beirut, summarized the reactions on her X account.
Tamir Morag of Channel 14: “The way President Trump announced the ceasefire was embarrassing for Israel. It was clear that Israel’s interest was to continue fighting against Hezbollah.”
The nationalist opposition leader of Yisrael Beiteinu (“Israel is Our Home”), Avigdor Lieberman, complained, “The ceasefire in Lebanon is a betrayal of the residents of the north. The war must not end without a decisive outcome and the elimination of Hezbollah; this October 7 government has learned nothing.”
Ariel Kahane, a senior Israeli journalist and diplomatic correspondent for Israel Hayom daily, declared, “Donald Trump’s move reflects a double submission to Iran: Trump is aligning with Iran’s linking of the war in its territory to Lebanon. He is leaving one of Iran’s arms alive, active, and dangerous.”
Benny Ben Muvchar, head of the Mevoot Hermon Regional Council in northern Israel: “Hezbollah is still strong and waiting for us… the [Arab dominant] Galilee is being emptied of its residents, and we are being led by Trump’s whims.”
Israel’s i24 News characterized the ceasefire as a gift to Iran. “A more alarming development is that Iran itself informed the Americans that it wants to see a ceasefire in Lebanon, in order to advance negotiations between Tehran and Washington. What is happening amounts to a gift to Tehran at the expense of the northern settlements,” while Channel 13 complained the “ceasefire in Lebanon was imposed on Israel.”
“Residents of the north feel once again that they have been betrayed,” Channel 13 also reported. “We felt it during the ‘Iron Swords’ war [response to al-Asqa Flood], and we feel it again today. The fact that the U.S. President announced the ceasefire only highlights the distance between the Israeli Prime Minister and the people in the north and their reality.”
Critics claim Netanyahu delivered a coup de grâce when he “rejected a request by members of the security cabinet to vote on the ceasefire decision in Lebanon,” according to the Israeli newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth.
On April 15, before the ceasefire in Lebanon, Netanyahu asserted that Israel was not obligated to adhere to Trump’s ceasefire agreement with Iran. Consequently, the Israeli military continued its attacks on Lebanon, despite the original agreement explicitly including Lebanon in the ceasefire.
Roaring Lion: 90% of Israelis Support Illegal Attack on Iran
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is viewed negatively by settlers in northern Israel, according to the results of a survey conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute. In regard to Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion, concurrent with Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, the survey showed that “more than 90% gave the IDF a positive performance rating,” although the poll did not investigate Israeli responses to the concerns of international law experts, human rights organizations, and UN officials.
Israeli strikes resulted in significant civilian casualties and destruction of civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings. On February 28, 2026, a joint US-Israel attack struck a primary school in Minab, southern Iran, killing over 170 people, most of whom were children. Israeli strikes on Iranian oil depots on March 7, 2026, were also flagged for potentially causing long-term health and environmental damage to civilians.
In response to the attacks on Iran, over 100 international law experts signed a letter condemning them as violations of the UN Charter and potentially war crimes. Additionally, UN experts condemned the aggression against Iran and Lebanon, warning of the catastrophic impact on civilians and urging an immediate ceasefire.
Conversely, Iran’s retaliation, including the use of cluster munitions, has been condemned by Amnesty International. Civilian deaths in Ramat Gan, Tel Aviv, Yehud, and Bat Yam have come under investigation. A missile that struck Beit Shemesh that killed nine civilians is being investigated as a war crime.
Strait of Hormuz Open to Commercial Traffic
Following the ceasefire agreement, Israel Defense Minister Katz said the ongoing campaign against Hezbollah is far from over. According to Katz, the IDF has achieved several significant victories. However, certain areas in southern Lebanon have not yet been fully cleared. Weapons and combatants may still be present in these zones, and their removal is deemed crucial, he said.
According to the Lebanese army, there had been “a number of violations of the agreement, with several Israeli attacks recorded, in addition to intermittent shelling targeting a number of villages.” French President Emmanuel Macron expressed concern that the ceasefire has been compromised by ongoing military operations, as reported by AFP.
The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, responded to the tenuous ceasefire by announcing the temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz. “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon,” Araghchi said, “the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.”
The price of Brent oil fell below $84 on the announcement and West Texas Intermediate futures, the US benchmark, dropped by 10% on the news of Araghchi’s announcement. Additionally, the Dow rose 640 points, around 1.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 1%. “The stock market is good,” Trump declared, “the oil prices are coming down, and it’s looking very good that we are going to make a deal with Iran.”
However, considering Israel’s history of ceasefire violations, and the response by Hezbollah and Iran, it is entirely possible hostilities will resume and the strait will once again be closed to tanker and carrier traffic, thus dashing hope the war is now winding down and there is a peace deal on the horizon. As noted above, Israel has indicated it will continue military operations at its discretion.
RT | April 17, 2026
Passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is now completely open, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared on Friday. He added that the waterway will remain open for the remainder of the ceasefire in Lebanon.
Araghchi’s announcement came shortly after a 10-day truce came into force between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon, which has been one of the major obstacles to a peace deal between Iran and the US.
Writing on X, the Iranian minister stated that “in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.”
He noted however, that the vessels would be allowed to move along the “coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran,” suggesting that the strait will remain under Tehran’s control.
US President Donald Trump has responded to Araghchi’s announcement on his Truth Social account, appearing to thank Tehran for fully reopening the “strait of Iran.”
The Strait of Hormuz has been shut down ever since the US and Israel launched an unprovoked attack on Iran in late February. The closure has driven up energy prices and rattled the global economy, disrupting one of the world’s most important trade arteries, which handles around 20% of global crude exports.
In the minutes following Araghchi’s announcement, oil prices plummeted by more than 10%, with Crude oil dropping to just over $83 per barrel and Brent coming in at around $88.
Glenn Diesen | April 16, 2026
Seyed Mohammad Marandi explains the Iranian perspective on why the negotiations with the US failed, what to expect from the US naval blockade, and the likely war that will continue. Marandi is a professor at Tehran University and a former advisor to Iran’s Nuclear Negotiation Team.
Follow Prof. Glenn Diesen:
Support the research by Prof. Glenn Diesen:
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – April 15, 2026
Al Mayadeen | April 15, 2026
The cost of repairing energy-linked infrastructure damaged during the recent US-led escalation in the Middle East could reach as high as $58 billion, underscoring the scale of destruction inflicted across the region, Rystad Energy reported.
Rystad Energy estimates that oil and gas facilities alone could account for up to $50 billion of that total, reflecting extensive damage to some of the region’s most critical assets. The figure marks a sharp increase from $25 billion just weeks earlier, with the firm noting that “the scope of damage has expanded materially” as strikes intensified before a temporary ceasefire was reached between Washington and Tehran.
The bulk of the damage is concentrated in oil and gas infrastructure, the backbone of regional economies, with repair costs in this sector alone reaching up to $50 billion. Rystad noted that downstream refining and petrochemical assets account for the largest share of losses due to their technical complexity and the extent to which they were targeted in later stages of the war. However, the impact has extended further, affecting essential civilian and industrial facilities, including desalination plants, steel factories, and aluminum production sites, adding another $3 billion to $8 billion in losses.
Global fallout
Rystad stressed that the consequences extend far beyond the region, warning that rebuilding damaged infrastructure does not generate new energy capacity but instead diverts global resources, leading to project delays and inflationary pressure worldwide. The firm described the situation as “a stress test for the global energy supply chain,” noting that the same contractors, equipment, and engineering capacity required for repairs are already committed to major LNG and offshore projects launched in recent years.
This overlap is expected to slow the execution of new energy developments, as operators prioritize restoring existing production over advancing expansion projects.
As a result, recovery is increasingly shaped not by capital availability but by competition for access to constrained supply chains, logistics, and specialized labor.
The president’s threat to annihilate Iranian civilization took America to a dark place
By Harrison Berger | The American Conservative | April 10, 2026
On Tuesday morning, President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to declare that “a civilization will die tonight.” By 8 p.m., the U.S. announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran had begun. Whether the ceasefire holds (or even takes hold) is already in question—Iran and the U.S. appear to be offering contradictory accounts of what the 10-point plan they allegedly agreed to actually says. The best hope that it might stick comes from Israel, where TV presenters who spent Monday salivating over a clock counting down the minutes and hours until Trump’s planned genocide of Iranians were left confused and outraged when the president backed down shortly before the deadline.
But whether or not Trump ultimately goes as far as the Israelis would like him to, Americans must now reckon with the destruction already carried out in our name, the civilization-destroying actions Trump has threatened, and the barbarians we have become in the process.
As Tucker Carlson, the most prominent critic of the war with Iran, pointed out in his viral monologue Monday, there was very little that was American or Western about Trump’s threat to destroy an entire civilization. That is not to say the U.S. government hasn’t committed serious crimes before, including wars of aggression. As a study published in The Lancet, a scientific journal, found, U.S. and European sanctions have killed 38 million people since 1971. But those shameful actions were at least concealed behind a pretext, not declared outright as the objective itself. Though it may seem like a distinction without a difference, Carlson convincingly argues it matters significantly. By abandoning even the aspiration of higher laws, we have embraced the “law of the jungle,” which is “a brutal and unforgiving law” that will not stop at Iran’s borders. “We know from history that the things you do will be done unto you,” Carlson said. “Once you set a standard, you will have to live by that standard.”
Indeed, Trump’s threat to destroy Iranian civilization was not an expression of American values but the purest expression, and logical endpoint, of an ideology the United States has attached itself to under both Joe Biden and now Trump: Zionism and the Greater Israel project, first through U.S. support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing of the West Bank, and most recently through the joint war of aggression against Iran.
And while the American taxpayers forced to fund those wars are told they are fought on our behalf to save “civilization,” it is now impossible to think of any force in recent history more destructive and threatening to civilization than the Greater Israel project—which wages an ISIS-style campaign to destroy every artifact, center of knowledge, and source of beauty in the region, and does so with American weapons, American servicemembers, and American money.
The record of what has already been destroyed provides evidence that the U.S. and Israel wish to do exactly to Iran what ISIS and its various backers did to Syria. According to Iran’s minister of cultural heritage, U.S. and Israeli strikes have damaged more than 131 historical sites across the country including museums, palaces, and UNESCO-listed landmarks, with the heaviest losses in Tehran. Among the centuries-old structures destroyed by U.S.–Israeli bombs is Iran’s Golestan Palace, a UNESCO World Heritage site; the Chehel Sotoun pavilion in Isfahan, a 17th-century monument from the Safavid period; the Sheikh Lotfollah Mosque, one of the architectural jewels of the Islamic world; and the Fin Garden in Kashan, one of Iran’s oldest surviving gardens which dates to the late 16th century. Dozens of universities and research centers have been struck, including the Iran University of Science and Technology, Isfahan University of Technology, and Sharif University of Technology, “Iran’s MIT,” whose computer science center was reduced to rubble. A Tehran synagogue was also struck on Passover.
Our descent into barbarism has long been in the making, and the fingerprints all over that transformation are recognizably Israeli. One of the earliest signs of our transition came when the “War Department” began posting drone strike footage, often as memes, on social media. Where the government once prosecuted WikiLeaks and scrambled to conceal its war footage out of embarrassment, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon now shamelessly publishes such imagery on its own initiative, a direct import from Israel, which pioneered the model of broadcasting its own war crimes during the assault on Gaza. More recently, Israel-firsters like Laura Loomer and Mark Levin were the loudest voices pushing Trump toward escalation and cheering him on as he threatened civilizational annihilation. Loomer, whom Trump reportedly solicits for advice, called on him to channel Curtis LeMay, the general whose fanatical bloodlust inspired Dr. Strangelove and who came within a hair of igniting nuclear war. Levin, for his part, arguably insinuated on his Fox News television show that dropping a nuclear bomb on Iran would be justified.
Whether or not the ceasefire holds, Americans will have to reckon with what has already been done in our name, and with the fact that the Israel-firsters who cheered every escalation have not been removed from their positions of influence. They remain right in the president’s ear, defining not just his second term but the international symbol of destruction and barbarism we are in the process of becoming.
Dialogue Works | April 13, 2026
Substack: https://substack.com/@dialogueworks?u…
X (Twitter): https://x.com/Dialogue_NRA
Patreon: https://patreon.com/Dialogueworks?utm…
Support Me:
By Robert Inlakesh | Palestine Chronicle | April 12, 2026
“The war is not over,” stated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, less than twenty-four hours after a two-week cessation of hostilities with Iran was declared by the US. A clear sign of what is to come, from an emboldened Israeli leadership that has failed to achieve their goals of “total victory” in a “seven-front war” that has been ongoing since October of 2023.
With all the talk about ceasefire agreements to end regional hostilities in the Arab and English media, the Israeli Hebrew media is looking at things quite differently. Instead of an end to a war that the majority of the international community has worked to close, Tel Aviv eyes the next escalation.
In Lebanon, if a ceasefire is reached, the Israeli government will seek to do so in a way that inflicts a major political blow against Hezbollah, after having failed to achieve actual military accomplishments. Almost immediately following US President Donald Trump’s Truth Social post declaring a two-week ceasefire, Israel jumped to use the opportunity it had gained through the ceasefire in order to focus all of its airpower on Lebanon.
The results were truly devastating; around 300 Lebanese civilians were murdered in a series of strikes that lasted only ten minutes, which followed mass strikes across the country, including the targeting of an ambulance. After this, a series of other attacks took place, including a targeted strike which killed 19 Lebanese in Nabatieh, including at least 12 Security Force members.
Meanwhile, the US picked Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun, who have publicly begged their way to direct negotiations with Israel, while their civilians suffer through successive massacres. The way this is all being orchestrated was laid out well by a presenter on Israel’s Channel 13 News, who openly said that the Israelis are trying to orchestrate civil war inside Lebanon, using the government to order a crackdown on Hezbollah that will trigger it.
There are also Lebanese Forces militiamen who are suspected of helping drag the nation into such a bloody conflict.
Just as on November 27, 2024, when the Lebanon ceasefire was declared, the Israelis don’t see it as an agreement designed to stop aggression mutually. Over the course of 15 months, the Israelis committed 15,400 violations of the Lebanon ceasefire, setting a world record for the most violated ceasefire in recorded human history. While the US-backed Lebanese government pretended as if a new war had started in March, the Israelis had been waging war on the Lebanese south for 15 months.
In the Gaza Strip, the so-called ceasefire was also an opportunity for the Israelis; they got a break from the fighting while continuing to arm and build up their ISIS-linked militia allies. They violated the ceasefire around 3,000 times, killing over 700 Palestinians, all as a Civi-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), composed of over 20 countries, watched on in silence.
All the way back to 1948, the Israelis used ceasefires and temporary truces in the same exact way. For example, they launched ‘Operation Danny’, in July of 1948, during a temporary pause to secure territory in Lydd and Ramla; then ‘Operation Yoav’ in October 1948, breaking the second truce to launch an attack in the Naqab region; followed by ‘Operation Hiram’, also in October 1948 that was initiated shortly after the second truce ended, flooding their forces into the Galilee.
All of the Gaza ceasefire agreements were violated continuously by the Israelis, each used to Tel Aviv’s advantage. More recently, we can turn to Syria, where the Israelis tore up the 1974 disengagement agreement, using the fall of Bashar al-Assad to occupy even more southern Syrian territory, including seven key water assets. They had a well-oiled plan prepared, sitting there waiting for the day that regime change occurred in Damascus.
There is only one example of where the Israelis were forced to abide by a ceasefire, but were still violating Lebanese sovereignty thousands upon thousands of times throughout, and that was following the 2006 Lebanon war, when a costly equation was imposed by force. Yet, the post-October 7 predicament has destroyed all previous understandings and ushered in an expansionist era for the Israeli government. Both Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Yair Lapid have both publicly stated their interest in expanding Israel’s undeclared borders and achieving the “Greater Israel Project”.
Tel Aviv’s defence minister, Israel Katz, has made it clear Israel’s intention to expand its borders up to the Litani River in Lebanon, while Finance Minister Smotrich has openly asserted that the objective of settling the area is a goal.
Israel is currently fighting what it sees as an existential battle to achieve the rebirth of “Eretz Israel”, a regional war that will not end until the project is secured. This means that even if a ceasefire is reached with Iran and Lebanon, it is not actually a ceasefire; it is simply another opportunity to implement new schemes and head back to the drawing board, only to escalate once again in the future.
Both history and the statements coming from the Israeli leadership clearly demonstrate that there is no such thing as a sustainable ceasefire with Israel.
– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine.
By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | April 13, 2026
China said it will not comply with the Strait of Hormuz blockade that President Donald Trump imposed on Monday. Beijing explained that it is negotiating with Tehran to transit the waterway and expects other countries not to meddle in its affairs.
Beijing is “monitoring the situation in the Middle East. Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz,” Chinese Defense Minister, Adm. Dong Jun, said after Trump announced the blockade. “We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honor them and expect others to not meddle in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open for us.”
In response to a US and Israeli surprise attack on February 28, Tehran took control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has allowed only vessels from “friendly nations” to enter or exit the Persian Gulf and has imposed a toll. China is among the nations that have worked out deals with Iran to allow its ships to transit the Strait.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is now under Tehran’s control, and plans to change the toll to transit the waterway after the conflict ends.
Trump has threatened that the US will stop any ship that exits the Gulf after paying a toll to Tehran, setting up a potential confrontation with Beijing if the Navy attempts to seize a Chinese-flagged tanker.
Trump is scheduled to visit China next month to meet with President Xi. Earlier this week, the President threatened to place a 50% tariff on China if Beijing provides military support to Iran.
The Cradle | April 13, 2026
A majority of Israelis are against the ceasefire with Iran and anticipate that it will collapse within the coming year, according to a poll carried out by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.
The survey was carried out between 9 and 10 April.
According to the results, 61 percent of Israelis oppose the cessation of hostilities with the Islamic Republic.
Seventy-three percent said Tel Aviv will have to resume the war, while 76 percent said that talks will not achieve Israeli objectives.
Additionally, 69 percent say Israel must continue the indiscriminate strikes on Lebanon and military operations against Hezbollah. Only 23 percent believe Lebanon should be included in the ceasefire.
The new poll also reveals that 62 percent are not convinced that the war against Lebanon will bring security and stability to Israelis.
Just 20 percent of supporters of the ruling coalition said they backed the truce, while only 31 percent of opposition voters expressed the same view.
The poll shows Israelis are unhappier with the results of this war than they were following last year’s 12-day June war against Iran.
Thirty-seven percent were “very satisfied” with the results of the new US-Israeli war on Iran, as opposed to 62 percent who said the same about last year’s war.
Forty-four percent of coalition voters are happy with the “diplomatic achievements” made, compared to 24 percent who are extremely unsatisfied.
Only seven percent of opposition voters said they were very satisfied with the achievements, compared with 69 percent who said they were unsatisfied.
The poll was released following the Islamabad talks between Tehran and Washington, which ended on 12 April with no agreement.
Since the US-Israeli war on Iran was launched in late February, Washington’s bases across the region have been ravaged.
A new Pew Research Center survey, released on 7 April, shows rising negative sentiment among US citizens toward Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the start of the war.
Six in 10 respondents report an unfavorable view of Israel, up from 53 percent last year, while the number of those holding a “very unfavorable” view has also surged, nearly tripling since 2022.
Another recent poll carried out by Reuters and Ipsos showed that more than two-thirds of US citizens are calling for a quick end to Washington’s war against Iran, even if it means ditching its stated goals.
Just two weeks after the war began, a Drop Site News and Zeteo poll revealed that a majority of US citizens believe US President Donald Trump launched the war on Iran to “cover up” the scandalous Jeffrey Epstein files.
The new poll on Israelis’ sentiment toward ending the Iran war echoes some of those conducted during the genocide in Gaza.
In May 2025, a poll conducted by Penn State University found that 82 percent of Israelis supported the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.
Sputnik – 12.04.2026
The Strait of Hormuz is “under reasonable control and management” and open to passage by civilian vessels “in compliance with specific regulations,” the IRGC’s public relations department has announced.
This provision does not apply to military vessels, whose approach of the Strait “under any pretext will be considered a ceasefire violation and will be dealt with severely,” the IRGC warned.
The announcement comes on the heels of President Trump’s declaration on Sunday of a naval blockade of “any and all ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” and threats to “blow” any Iranian forces that fire at US warships “to hell!”
Al Mayadeen | April 12, 2026
Former United States State Department advisor and veteran West Asia negotiator Aaron David Miller sharply criticized Washington’s assumptions about the pace and substance of talks with Iran, arguing that the US misjudged Iran’s position.
“If Administration believed after only 21 hours of negotiations, Iran would give up enrichment which is what Vance implied, they totally misread the moment and the Iranian dominated IRGC,” Miller posted on X.
Gerard Araud, a high-ranking retired French diplomat who served as the Ambassador to the United States and the Permanent Representative to the United Nations, also pointed to the prowess of Iranian negotiators.
“The agreement we reached with Iran in 2015 was the result of hundreds of hours of negotiations with the support of experts of nuclear energy,” Araud explained.
“Negotiating with the Iranians is the equivalent of a diplomatic trenches war. Line by line, word by word.” he posted on X.
“From an Iranian point of view, the negotiations are not starting from scratch but after an agreement endorsed by the UNSC,” he added in another post.
“Any new negotiations have to take into account this precedent: words have already a significance and proposals a history,” he said.
Deadlock in Islamabad talks after 21 hours of negotiations
Negotiations between Iran and the US have ended without agreement following Pakistan-mediated diplomatic efforts in Islamabad, with core nuclear demands keeping both sides far apart after 21 hours of discussions.
The talks, aimed at narrowing differences over Iran’s nuclear program and related regional security arrangements, failed to produce convergence on key issues, including Iran’s right to uranium enrichment, the security regime of the Strait of Hormuz, and proposals linking any broader understanding to a ceasefire extending to Lebanon.
Expectations of a rapid breakthrough had been encouraged by US Vice President JD Vance, but were widely regarded as unrealistic given the depth of disagreement between Washington and Tehran. The 2015 nuclear agreement itself took nearly two years to finalize, while current conditions are further complicated by escalating regional confrontation.
Vance defends US position after talks collapse
Following the breakdown of negotiations, US Vice President JD Vance stated that Iran had rejected Washington’s terms, while leaving the door open for future engagement.
“They have chosen not to accept our terms,” Vance said in a brief news conference in Islamabad, though he left open the possibility that terms could still be reached.
“We leave here with a very simple proposal: a method of understanding that is our final and best offer,” he added.
“We’ll see if the Iranians accept it,” he asserted.
Australia calls for renewed negotiations and ceasefire
International reactions followed the collapse of the talks, with Australia urging both sides to return to diplomacy and maintain a ceasefire across the region.
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong described the outcome of the Islamabad talks as “disappointing” and called for an immediate resumption of negotiations.
“The priority now must be to continue the ceasefire and return to negotiations,” Wong said, adding it was “disappointing that the Islamabad talks between the United States and Iran have ended without agreement.”
Wong also warned that any further escalation “would impose an even greater human cost and further impact the global economy,” stressing the need for sustained diplomatic engagement.
By Larry C. Johnson | SONAR21 | April 11, 2026
As I expected, the negotiation between the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement. Although JD Vance headed the US team, he was never in control… I have heard from someone who was directly involved with this circus in Islamabad that Israeli agents — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — made certain that JD Vance would not follow his instincts and accept the deal that Iran had laid on the table. Israel’s role in sabotaging the US delegation was evident in Vance’s statement announcing the failure of the negotiations, when he falsely accused Iran of refusing to give up its alleged quest for a nuclear weapon. This is just a rehashed piece of Zionist propaganda.
There were several Iranian conditions that the US refused to accept: Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to Israel’s attack on Lebanon and Hezbollah, unfreezing of Iran’s assets and retaining sovereignty over its supply of enriched uranium. I have said repeatedly this past week during various interviews on the subject that Iran’s position on these issues was non-negotiable.
Here is the statement just released by the Iranian government:
The American enemy, which is vile, wicked and dishonest — attempted to achieve on the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war.
Among these demands are handing over enriched uranium and opening the Strait of Hormuz without confirmed Iranian sovereignty over it.
Iran has decided to reject these terms and continue the sacred defense of its fatherland by any means necessary, military or diplomatic.’
So what is next? For starters I hope that the Iranian delegation in Islamabad gets a return flight home on a Russian or Chinese flagged airplane. I do not discount the possibility of Israel and the US trying to destroy the Iranian airliner on its return flight to Tehran.
Iran will not initiate new military actions against Israel or the US… They will wait to absorb the first blow and then launch a massive retaliation. I think they now understand that the US is too much under the control of the Zionist lobby to act in the interest of the people of the United States.
Iran’s demand that the US vacate its bases in the Gulf will be achieved by force… Iran will hit the remaining bases and make them uninhabitable for the US military going forward. The Saudis and the UAE will have to make a choice this week… Seek reconciliation with Iran and survive or side with the US and Israel and face economic destruction.
The real action that will put the most pressure on Trump will start on Monday morning when the US stock market takes a nose dive… again… and the price of oil heads back up into triple digit territory. JD Vance actually did Iran a favor by breaking off first and walking away. This paints Iran in a very favorable light in the eyes of the global south, i.e., Iran was willing to negotiate, but the US refused to engage in good faith negotiations and bailed.
Here is my chat with Ed DeMarche of the Trends Journal from last Wednesday: Video Link