Climate change: Minority report
Climategate does not just demonstrate the corruption of science and peer-review; it also demonstrates the incompetence of specialists who do not understand planetary ecology
By Peter Taylor
Al-Jazeera
December 8, 2009
Some climatologists believe current rises in temperatures and melting icebergs are part of of the Earth’s natural cycles, and not induced by man-made devices [EPA]
Concern over global warming has spawned such a highly charged and polarised political movement, that real science has become sidelined in favour of sound-bites and simple messages. The real science is not as ‘settled’ as some politicians would have us believe.
There is a significant minority of climate scientists who look at the data and conclude that we are dealing with natural cycles that are peaking just as they have done on a regular basis over centuries.
These scientists are heavily outnumbered by the proliferation of computer specialists who have created their own virtual planet – people trained in maths and physics who may never have handled an ice-core, tree-ring apparatus, sediments or stalagmites and all of the proxy indicators of past temperature cycles.
In my view, the UN secretariat has marginalised their careful assessment and warnings about natural cycles in favour of alarming future projections generated by the computer model.
These real climate scientists know that the last major warm period was a 1,000 years ago when the Vikings grew crops in Greenland – their graves are still solid in the permafrost.
In between then and now, Europe and China experienced a Little Ice Age – with widespread famine.
Reading the fine print
There is so much spin that you have to read the small print of the UN reports where they admit to not understanding natural cycles and what drives them.
Behind the scenes they acknowledge cycles are at work and contribute to the warming and that it is only from the model that they derive the dominance of carbon dioxide.
But the model does not easily simulate the poorly understood cycles. Satellites do a better job and having spent three years studying the data I conclude global warming is real but at least 80 per cent natural cycle and 20 per cent human emissions.
My conclusions are supported by recent climate shifts that run counter to model predictions. From the data on cycles I could predict that after 2007, when Arctic summer ice reached a record low, it would start to recover.
In 2008, it came back by 10 per cent. The majority expected it to continue its decline to ice-free status by 2015. In 2009, it grew by another 10 per cent.
Little Ice Age
The models beloved of the majority also predicted that the high-level winds, known as the jet-stream, would shift north as the globe warmed.
The jet-stream directs wet weather from the Atlantic and in 2007 they shifted south, bringing widespread flooding to Western Europe.
I have seen a minority report in Nasa’s archives which shows that the jet-stream shifts south as the magnetic field of the sun falls and this was characteristic of the Little Ice Age.
In 2007, the sun’s magnetic field fell to an all time low and this repeated through 2008 and 2009, as did the floods.
Many solar scientists point to a link between this magnetic field and climate on Earth and when the field is low, the Earth cools.
During the low in the 17th century the Thames in London froze every winter for 50 years and summers were a washout.
Chinese and Russian scientists have better knowledge of these cycles, because the cold periods induce widespread famine – and some of them see all the signs of a new Little Ice Age.
Perhaps that’s why their governments’ sovereign funds are buying huge tracts of productive land in the tropics – for food.
You may ask – if this is real science, how can the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ignore it and claim the warming is caused by carbon dioxide.
Global spin?
In fact, the scientists only agreed the warming is “very likely not due to known natural causes acting alone” – and that is spun by the policy-makers and the world’s media.
The not-known natural causes are subject to high-level research programmes because real scientists know they exist and are powerful. And no real climate scientist ever said natural causes are acting alone.
Up until the recent ‘climate-gate’ scandal, I accepted that the objective data could be trusted.
But it now appears scientists upon whom the UN relies were busy manipulating the data to produce a warmer globe and to eradicate what they call ‘blips’ (i.e. cycles) that they cannot explain.
To compound matters, they then sought to undermine the Freedom of Information Act and delete their records in advance of requests for the data.
The issue of causation is crucial. The poorest people are already at risk whether the globe warms or cools.
We need action on the real and immediate threats facing human support systems from unavoidable natural climate change – but less than one per cent of resources devoted to climate are spent on adaptation, the rest goes on what will be ineffective attempts to ‘stop climate chaos’.
Peter Taylor is an ecologist and author of ‘Chill: a reassessment of global warming theory’.
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From the Archives
The lies about the 1967 war are still more powerful than the truth
By Alan Hart | June 4, 2012
In retrospect it can be seen that the 1967 war, the Six Days War, was the turning point in the relationship between the Zionist state of Israel and the Jews of the world (the majority of Jews who prefer to live not in Israel but as citizens of many other nations). Until the 1967 war, and with the exception of a minority of who were politically active, most non-Israeli Jews did not have – how can I put it? – a great empathy with Zionism’s child. Israel was there and, in the sub-consciousness, a refuge of last resort; but the Jewish nationalism it represented had not generated the overtly enthusiastic support of the Jews of the world. The Jews of Israel were in their chosen place and the Jews of the world were in their chosen places. There was not, so to speak, a great feeling of togetherness. At a point David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s founding father and first prime minister, was so disillusioned by the indifference of world Jewry that he went public with his criticism – not enough Jews were coming to live in Israel.
So how and why did the 1967 war transform the relationship between the Jews of the world and Israel? … continue
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more on those emails:
McIntyre: Misrepresenting the stolen emails
DeepClimate has nailed ClimateAudit’s Stephen McIntyre cold in the clearly intentional misrepresentation of the stolen East Anglia emails.
Thanks to an astute and thorough reading of the emails, DeepC has shown McIntyre running partial quotes from the emails, but carefully deleting sections that show the comments to be made in integrity, good faith and with specific attention to the confusion that may arise from contradictory evidence.
For example, McIntyre reproduced this redacted quote:
“A proxy diagram of temperature change is a clear favourite for the Policy Makers summary. But the current diagram with the tree ring only data [i.e. the Briffa reconstruction] somewhat contradicts the multiproxy curve and dilutes the message rather significantly… This is probably the most important issue to resolve in Chapter 2 at present.. (Folland, Sep 22, 1999, in 0938031546.txt) [sic]”
And DeepC found the whole quote – including the remarkably forthright part that McIntyre cut:
“A proxy diagram of temperature change is a clear favourite for the Policy Makers summary. But the current diagram with the tree ring only data somewhat contradicts the multiproxy curve and dilutes the message rather significantly. We want the truth. Mike thinks it lies nearer his result (which seems in accord with what we know about worldwide mountain glaciers and, less clearly, suspect about solar variations). The tree ring results may still suffer from lack of multicentury time scale variance. This is probably the most important issue to resolve in Chapter 2 at present. [Emphasis added]”
Much has been written about how inappropriate it was for scientists to be withholding data, but consider this: McIntyre was one of the people from whom they were trying to withhold. Presumably they feared that he would act irresponsibly, cutting, pasting and generally misrepresenting their findings to undermine faith in their conclusions.
You can see here, clearly, where they would get that impression.
(With an extra hat tip to DeepC: Nice work.)
http://www.desmogblog.com/mcintyre-misrepresenting-stolen-emails
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Brian,
Why did it take your shill over three weeks to come up with this defense? The emails have been available the whole time.
Furthermore, your excuse for the hiding of the data is nonsense. The raw data is different from the emails. Do you really support the notion of the raw data not being available to scientific scrutiny?
This must be your religion.
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The company you keep: Competitive Enterprise Institute:
‘The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) broke the story about Carlin’s study being suppressed last week and has posted extensive information about the situation. It appears the story has generated so much interest that CEI’s web site is overwhelmed with traffic, as it is taking a loooonnnnnggggg time to load.
UPDATE: CEI demands EPA hear public comments on suppressed study
The good folks at CEI have issued a statement today demanding that EPA reopen the comment period on the proposed rule on the agency’s plans to regulate global warming emissions – CO2, the same thing every human being breathes out during the normal course of living – and to which the Carlin study was addressed.
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=3660
‘Climate Scientist To CEI: Stop Misrepresenting My Research
On Wednesday, the Competitive Enterprise Institute – a front group funded by ExxonMobil and other big oil companies – launched two advertisements in response to Al Gore’s new movie about global warming, An Inconvenient Truth.
One of the advertisements attempts to show that the scientific evidence for global warming is in dispute, claiming a study found the “Antarctic ice sheet is getting thicker, not thinner.â€
The primary author of that study, Curt Davis, has issued statement blasting CEI’s use of his study. Here’s an excerpt:
These television ads are a deliberate effort to confuse and mislead the public about the global warming debate. They are selectively using only parts of my previous research to support their claims. They are not telling the entire story to the public.
The whole story, according to Davis, is that increased precipitation in the interior of Antarctica is “predicted consequence of global climate warming.†Warmer temperatures mean more participation and more snow on the interior of the continent. Meanwhile, “Growth of the ice sheet was only noted on the interior of the ice sheet and did not include coastal areas. Coastal areas are known to be losing mass.â€
The reality is, there are no legitimate scientists or scientific studies that support CEI’s views on global warming. So they are forced to grossly misrepresent scientific research. Unfortunately for them, the scientists don’t look like they are going to put up with it.
‘
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/05/20/climate-scientist-to-cei/
How do u sleep at night, knowing you share your bed with this sort?
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The emails may be available, but as we see they are cherrypicked!
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Brian,
Please explain the fact that you are in league with George Bush, Tony Bliar, Newt Gingrich and all of the media outlets that sold the invasion of Iraq.
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Good article, there is never any mention in present science or argument on climate in regard to sun spots and solar activity. The sun is responsible for much of what has been called man made global warming.
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http://thinkprogress.org/2009/12/13/tuvulu-plea/
‘Yesterday, Ian Fry, the Tuvalu delegate to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, made an impassioned plea for legally binding agreements to be made by world leaders to save his nation and other low-lying island states. The tiny Pacific island nation of Tuvalu and other small island states have proposed a new treaty to protect these nations. Fry noted that is is “an irony of the modern world that the fate of the world is being determined by some senators in the US Congress”:
It appears that we are waiting for some senators in the U.S. Congress to conclude before we can consider this issue properly. It is an irony of the modern world that the fate of the world is being determined by some senators in the U.S. Congress. ‘
etc
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if Tuvalu goes under, you will have some explaining to do, Aletho.
if it doesnt, the only loss is some revenue to the multinationals.
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“if it doesnt, the only loss is some revenue to the multinationals”
Brian your comment makes it very clear that you have not been reading the content of the posts that you are commenting on. Unless you can address the content of the articles your commentary will be deleted. This is not a forum for you to blindly push your faith.
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It is all about One World Government and nobody there in Copenhagen gives a crap about Global Warming or Climate Change. Wake up because soon we can kiss our freedom goodbye forever.
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‘“if it doesnt, the only loss is some revenue to the multinationals”
Brian your comment makes it very clear that you have not been reading the content of the posts that you are commenting on. Unless you can address the content of the articles your commentary will be deleted. This is not a forum for you to blindly push your faith.’
Comment by aletho | December 13, 2009 | Reply
censorship? Do you really think im as corrupt as some scientists and politicians?
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What I do know Brian, is that you are not engaging in dialog here.
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Manipulation of data is not a new phenomena. Case in point, I worked for a division of Southern California Gas Company, a cash rich utility that subsidized several other companies under the umbrella of Pacific Enterprises, a holding company.
Back in 1988 or 1989, one of the financial analysts told me that the president of the holding company was not happy with the “numbers” concerning the purchase of a Texas oil company.
The “numbers” of my analyst friend indicated that the company was not a good buy, the president of Pacific Enterprises returned the report and demanded a rework of the “numbers” to indicate buying the Texas oil firm was a good investment.
Sounds of Enron type scamming, and the “numbers” have been fudged for many a company ever since, the game now is carbon, a basic and ubiquitous element for life.
Qui bono? “who profits?” The first question Roman judges would ask in a court case. Follow the money and the criminals will be found.
End the Federal reserve and all central banks and a new golden age will appear. Any elementary study of the history of finance will tell you such a thing.
Climategate is revealing just another perversion of the inbreed elites. Whom, by the way, are not as intelligent as they think. History teaches that as well!
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I am a Ph.D. physicist, old enough to have programmed in Fortran IV. The published analyses of the code in the leaked emails leaves little doubt of data manipulation for non-scientific purposes.
In the last 4 years I have gone from a strong CO2 warming advocate, to an extreme cynic re: the intentions of this crowd of pseudo-scientists. Although I long had misgivings about how a relatively minor greenhouse gas percentage wise (as compared to say H2O vapor)could have such an extreme event, I went along with the climatology “experts.” It was only when the supposed correlation between CO2 and temperature peaks over time was in fact shown to be a case of the CO2 peaks lagging the temperature peaks by some 200-700 years, that cause and effect went out the window. Fortunately the recent lull in solar storm activity (quiet sun) has underlined the flatness in real global temperatures while CO2 continues to rise.
We do not have accurate data nor models, period, the end.
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Whenever I talk to a these moronic little global warming nazis about true threats to our planet like genetically modified foods, the poisoning of our water supplies, overgrazing and the like, all they can get riled up about is carbon dioxide, a life gas. Can you think of a better scam to control and tax the masses than to make us all “guilty” of having a carbon footprint? Realize this crap comes from a globalist club that has come up with a scam to set up a system of global taxation beyond the direct control of an electorate. Climate changes. It always has. If it’s anthropogenic, taxing the hell out of everybody on earth to enrich a bunch of bloated control freaks, so they can jet around, stuff their faces with caviar, and spend the night with hookers paid for with your tax money, isn’t going to do a damn thing to make a difference in the weather. But you will be enslaved.
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Actually, there has been a great deal of research into natural climate cycles. However itwas sidelined in the late 80’s when AGW got all the funding. One group of cycles was dominated by solar activity. The rotates about its axis and it also revolves around the solar systems barycenter. The two couple in such a way that they alternatively amplify and dampen vortices in the solar interior causing a hotter or cooler sun. A lot of this work was doe at the Goodard Institute (the place Jim Hansen took over) by Fairbridge, Stothers, Rampino and others. Real progress was being made on this before everything became all CO2 all the time. Another group of cycles was related to volcanic ash being thrown into the upper atmosphere. This, in a large part,was do to secondary torsions introduced into the earths crust by tidal bulges. See “Alternate Theories of gelogy and gravity in earthquake prediction” in Pushing Gravity, Matt Edwards, editor.
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