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Europe cannot do without Russian gas despite attempts at diversification

By Ahmed Adel | November 11, 2025

As the latest data on European Union imports have shown, the bloc cannot do without Russian gas and will continue to find ways to buy it despite announcements to completely oust this energy source from the European market by 2028. Confusingly, the EU made this decision precisely when, despite strong anti-Russian sanctions, it actually increased its gas purchases from Russia.

In October, a record 1.68 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia reached the EU via the Turkish Stream, the highest monthly volume since the pipeline began operating in 2020. The pipeline’s average capacity utilization in October was 96%, and imports were 13% higher than in October last year.

The EU has also increased its imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia, with the value up by 7% compared to the same period last year. Russian LNG, as reported by EUObserver, accounted for 16% of total imports into the EU.

At the same time, the EU cannot completely replace Russian gas in two years, especially since US Secretary of the Interior Doug Bergham recently stated that although the United States has enough resources to replace Russian gas, this would require major infrastructure investments in Eastern Europe. In other words, he is calling for the Turkish Stream and the Russian gas in it to be replaced by an American Stream, even if it comes at a huge economic cost for the Europeans.

The US probably has enough gas in its reserves, but private companies do not want to jeopardize their financial position by investing in the infrastructure on American soil necessary to convert natural gas into liquid and transport it to Europe. This liquefied gas must then be returned to its gaseous state in Europe and then transported by pipeline to the end user—a complicated and expensive task.

That is why Europe has imported much more Russian gas than usual. American gas is more expensive, and no one has money to throw away, especially in the faltering European economy, where Germany, the engine of its development, has been struggling with a long recession. In effect, Europe’s economy will be buried if it relies only on American gas.

Although there is constant talk of gas from Azerbaijan, it never arrives in quantities above usual levels. Given the amount of gas the Caucasian country produces and sells, they are not enticed to invest huge sums in new deposits and significantly increased gas production that might not have a buyer in Europe in the future.

The EU cannot do without Russian gas because the bloc lacks the funds to build the necessary infrastructure. The Trump administration would certainly not finance the necessary infrastructure on European soil for LNG delivery and regasification. The pipeline required, and Europe, with its economy, is not able to finance the American Stream.

Even if a terminal for the reception and regasification of American LNG is built in the Black Sea in two years, the same amount of time as the Greek one in Alexandroupolis in the Aegean Sea, which was put into operation a year ago, is built, it is clear that its capacities are modest. The Bulgarian-Greek interconnector, which receives gas from Alexandroupolis, has a capacity of only 3 billion cubic meters per year.

Nonetheless, if it were that large in the Black Sea, it would be more than modest compared to the capacity of the Balkan Stream. Even the Turkish Stream, with a capacity of 31 billion cubic meters of gas, of which the Balkan Stream is a branch, is insufficient to meet Europe’s needs.

The EU has recently received a warning from Qatar, whose LNG imports account for around 14% of its imports. Qatar has threatened to stop supplying gas to the EU if it imposes a 5.0% fine on companies that fail to respect human rights and environmental standards. If this were to occur, Europe could eventually be left without both Russian and Qatari gas, as well as without sufficient American gas.

It cannot be expected that there will be any automatic change when peace is achieved in Ukraine because Russia will not turn its back on its new major partners, such as India. Europe is increasingly being left behind as other parts of the world, the main consumers of Russian energy, come into the spotlight. These countries are the main consumers, and as their industries develop, they will need more oil and gas. In effect, as Russian energy exports to the non-Western World grow, the constant threats by Europe to end imports will have little impact on the Russian economy and will boomerang on Europe, as all other sanctions packages have.

Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

November 11, 2025 - Posted by aletho | Russophobia | European Union, United States