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Nations across Asia strike direct deals with Iran for Hormuz passage

Al Mayadeen | April 7, 2026

As US President Donald Trump threatens to “obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure unless it reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a growing number of countries are now negotiating directly with Tehran to secure safe passage for their ships.

Several nations in Asia, arguably the region most affected by the ongoing fuel crisis, have been able to get their vessels through the chokepoint, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally transits. Tehran effectively closed the Strait after the country was attacked by the US and “Israel” on February 28.

It is a state of affairs that reflects a new geopolitical reality: access to the world’s most critical energy chokepoint is no longer governed by international maritime law, but by direct diplomacy with Iran.

A ‘de facto toll booth regime’

According to maritime tracking platform Kpler, commodity traffic through the strait fell by 95 percent when the war began. Before the US-Israeli aggression, around 100 ships transited daily. On some days this past week, that number was in the single digits.

But Iran has not closed the Strait entirely. Instead, it has created what maritime intelligence firm Lloyd’s List has described as a “de facto toll booth regime,” a permissions-based system operated by the IRGC, in which vessels from friendly countries are escorted through a narrow northern corridor near Larak Island.

As of this week, a second southern corridor near the Omani coastline has become operational, with Windward Maritime Intelligence tracking 11 transits on Sunday split across the two routes.

Iran names friendly nations

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has publicly named the countries considered friendly enough for passage: China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan. Several others have since joined the list.

India was among the first countries to secure safe transit, reportedly without paying any fees. The Iranian embassy in New Delhi posted on social media that “our Indian friends are in safe hands.”

Pakistan was allocated 20 vessel slots by Tehran. “This is a welcome and constructive gesture by Iran,” Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said.

Thailand struck a deal after weeks of disruptions that included a Thai bulk carrier being struck by Iranian projectiles in March, leaving three crew members unaccounted for. A Thai tanker subsequently crossed without paying a fee.

Malaysia secures passage

Malaysia secured assurances of safe passage through what its Transport Minister described as a “good diplomatic relationship with the Iranian government.” The Iranian embassy in Kuala Lumpur said on Monday that the first Malaysian ship had passed through the strait since the war began. “Iran does not forget its friends,” it said.

A Malaysian Foreign Ministry statement confirmed that one of seven Malaysian-owned commercial vessels stranded in the strait has been granted safe passage and is now heading to its destination, following “high-level diplomatic engagements” and “constructive” talks with Iranian officials led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

Other nations join the list

The Philippines, despite its close ties with the US, became the latest Asian country to secure an agreement after what its foreign secretary described as “a very productive phone conversation” with Tehran. Iran assured “safe, unhindered and expeditious passage” for Philippines-flagged ships.

China, Iran’s largest oil buyer, confirmed that some of its ships had sailed through. Windward’s data show Chinese-linked vessels account for around 10 percent of the limited traffic still moving through the strait.

Indonesia secured passage for two of its vessels following diplomatic engagement with Tehran. Iraq has also been granted an exemption, with Windward identifying 21 Iraqi-linked tankers already operating under the arrangement.

Japan joined the list this week after a vessel operated by Mitsui OSK Lines carrying liquefied natural gas passed through the strait.

A system based on political alignment

The system is selectively allocated based on political alignment rather than open maritime norms. Of the roughly 280 global transit requests tracked by one intelligence firm, only 17 were approved. Some 670 commodity vessels were still stranded west of the strait as of last week.

Iran’s parliament is pursuing legislation to formally codify the toll system, likely making permanent a wartime measure and turning one of the world’s most important shipping routes into a fee-paying corridor controlled by its military.

A strategy that works

While Washington threatens military action and demands European naval support, Iran has quietly built a parallel system: nations that engage with Tehran diplomatically get their ships through. Those who follow Washington’s lead find the strait closed.

As the US-Israeli war on Iran enters its sixth week, the message is clear. Iran controls the Strait. Iran decides who passes. And Iran is proving that diplomacy, not threats, is the only path through. The countries that need their ships to move are making their own deals, and they are getting results.

April 7, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Wars for Israel | , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Nations across Asia strike direct deals with Iran for Hormuz passage

IRGC commander declares ‘new phase’ of reprisal attacks against aggressors

Press TV – April 7, 2026

Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force has declared the start of a “new phase” in Iran’s retaliatory operations against the US aggression, as the elite force warned earlier that any violation of red lines by the enemies will trigger a crushing response.

Posting a video on social platform UpScrolled, Brigadier General Seyyed Majid Mousavi said, “And now, the new phase of the war [has begun] with fresh, twin launchers for Fateh and Kheibar Shekan missiles, all previous strikes doubled.”

In a statement announcing the launch of the wave 99 of Operation True Promise 4, the IRGC reiterated that Iran “has not been and will never be the one to initiate attacks on civilian targets.”

However, it added that the IRGC “will not hesitate to retaliate against despicable aggressions on civilian facilities.”

In response to any further attack on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, the IRGC forces “will inflict such damage on the infrastructure of the US and its partners that they will be deprived of the region’s oil and gas for years to come.”

The IRGC said that Washington’s regional allies need to be aware of the fact that the IRGC has so far “shown great restraint and exercised caution in selecting its targets for retaliation, out of respect for good neighborly relations.”

But the Iranian Armed Forces, the statement added, will cast aside all such considerations and self-restraint from now on.

Since the US launched its illegal war against Iran on February 28, the country’s civilian infrastructure has repeatedly been targeted in flagrant violation of international law.

In response to the aggression, Iran’s Armed Forces have carried out daily missile and drone attacks on American assets and bases in the region.

Under growing pressure at home to end the war, US President Donald Trump has once again threatened that he would bomb Iran’s bridges and power plants if the Islamic Republic does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has imposed restrictions on passage through the strait, days after the start of the military aggression, saying ships related to the aggressors could not use the waterway.

April 7, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Militarism, War Crimes, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on IRGC commander declares ‘new phase’ of reprisal attacks against aggressors

37 days of war on Iran cost US staggering $42bln, tracker shows

Al Mayadeen | April 6, 2026

The US aggression against Iran has cost American taxpayers over $42.1 billion in nearly 37 days of war, according to the Iran War Cost Tracker portal.

The portal’s real-time tracking is based on a Department of War briefing for the US Congress on March 10, which stated that Washington spent $11.3 billion in the first six days of its aggression on Iran and plans to spend an additional $1 billion each subsequent day of the war.

Trump requests $1.5 trillion defense budget as war costs spiral

On Friday, US President Donald Trump asked Congress to enact a $2.2 trillion budget for discretionary programs, seeking a massive increase in defense spending, while also renewing his push for steep cuts to domestic agencies.

The budget proposal released on Friday requests $1.5 trillion for defense, a significant increase over the $1 trillion sought for fiscal year 2026. The new figure includes $1.1 trillion in base discretionary spending for the Department of War and another $350 billion in mandatory spending as the US carries out its war on Iran.

The sharp increase in military spending comes as the United States remains engaged in a war that has driven up costs and placed a growing strain on financial and military resources. The war cost Washington more than $11 billion in its first six days alone, with estimates placing daily expenditures at between $1 billion and $2 billion. Munitions stockpiles have been drawn down significantly, raising concerns about sustainability and replenishment.

War costs could reach hundreds of billions

Short-term projections from weeks ago cited by The Intercept suggest that the war could push costs to $250 billion in its eighth week, if it drags on this long.

A government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged the uncertainty of these figures, telling The Intercept that “it’s a back-of-the-napkin estimate,” while another official told the outlet, “They really have no idea of the real cost.”

The proposed budget also aligns with a broader military buildup that includes investments in missile systems, naval assets, and advanced fighter jets, signaling preparations that extend beyond immediate battlefield needs. Against this backdrop, the proposed budget reflects a broader reallocation of resources toward sustaining prolonged military operations, while partially offsetting rising expenditures through cuts to domestic spending.

The budget blueprint comes ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, with Republicans aiming to preserve their narrow control of both chambers of Congress. The proposal is also likely to face scrutiny from lawmakers who have already raised concerns over the scale of war-related spending and its long-term fiscal impact.

For American taxpayers, the message is clear: as the war on Iran grinds on with no end in sight, the costs continue to mount. And the administration’s solution is not to end the war, but to pour even more money into it, all while cutting domestic programs that ordinary Americans rely on.

Whether Congress will approve Trump’s request remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: the price of this war has only begun to be counted.

April 6, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , | Comments Off on 37 days of war on Iran cost US staggering $42bln, tracker shows

Baghdad tells Asian refiners, traders to begin loading Iraqi crude amid Iranian exemption

The Cradle | April 6, 2026

Baghdad has told Asian traders and refiners they can begin loading Iraqi oil into tankers for transit through the Strait of Hormuz following an Iranian exemption to transit the strategic waterway.

After the US and Israel began their unprovoked attack on Iran over one month ago, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to target vessels linked to the US and Israel with missile and drone strikes.

The move forced Iraq to cut its oil production by some 70 percent, as Baghdad had no major alternate route for exporting oil, which funds 90 percent of the state budget, and as its oil storage facilities quickly reached capacity.

Iraqi oil exports subsequently plunged by roughly 97 percent, to an average of 99,000 barrels per day (bpd).

However, in a notice sent on Sunday, Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) announced that Iraqi oil shipments were now “exempt from any potential restrictions.”

It asked Asian buyers to begin loading crude into vessels, saying export terminals, including in the city of Basra on the Persian Gulf, were “fully operational.”

According to Bloomberg, it was not immediately clear if the Iranian exemption would apply to all Iraqi oil or just the tankers owned by SOMO.

“Buyers expressed caution about the move,” the financial news outlet added.

The Ocean Thunder, a tanker carrying a million barrels of Iraqi crude, crossed the narrow strait on Sunday.

Iraq often sells oil on a free-on-board basis, meaning refiners arrange their own shipping. Asian buyers speaking to Bloomberg said they were seeking additional information, including whether Iraq would allow the use of its own tankers for extra security.

Transit of vessels through Hormuz has not only been hampered by Iranian threats, but by massive increases in maritime insurance premiums, as well as outright cancellations of insurance policies by western insurers.

Bloomberg notes that the number of vessels transiting through Hormuz has increased over the past week but remains at a “trickle” compared to before the war.

On 18 March, Baghdad reached a deal with leaders of the Iraqi Kurdistan region to resume oil exports via pipeline to Turkiye, though the volume the pipeline can hold is too small to make up for the disruptions of exports from Basra through Hormuz.

Roughly 300,000 bpd are now exported via the pipeline in the Kurdistan Region through Turkiye’s Ceyhan port.

This may aid Israel’s oil security, as Tel Aviv receives much of its oil from Azerbaijan, which ships to Ceyhan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. From there, Israel can import crude via oil tankers transiting to Haifa on the Mediterranean Sea.

April 6, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism | , , , , , | Comments Off on Baghdad tells Asian refiners, traders to begin loading Iraqi crude amid Iranian exemption

Iran Threatens Retaliatory Strike on Stargate AI Project in UAE

OpenAI, Oracle, NVIDIA, Cisco, and SoftBank stand to lose $30 billion.

By Kurt Nimmo | Another Day in the Empire | April 6, 2026

Iran has threatened to follow through on its threat to strike tech operations in Israel and the Persian Gulf emirates. Brigadier General Ebrahim Zolfaghari, IRGC Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters spokesperson, in a video released on April 5, singled out the AI Stargate data center in the UAE. He threatened “complete and utter annihilation” of the $30 billion facility in Abu Dhabi and extended the threat to other US and Israeli tech targets.

In early March, the IRGC attacked Amazon’s AWS data centers in Bahrain and Dubai, triggering outages. It was the first time a “hyperscale cloud provider” suffered a military attack, notes Tom’s Hardware. Earlier this month, the IRGC claimed to have hit Oracle’s data center in Dubai, although this was denied by Oracle.

“Should the USA proceed with its threats concerning Iran’s power plant facilities the following retaliatory measures shall be promptly enacted,” warned Zolfaghari. “All power plants, energy infrastructure, and information and communications technology of the Zionist regime, and all similar companies within the region that have American shareholders shall face complete and utter annihilation.”

The IRGC video provided a censored Google Maps satellite image of the Stargate facility. “Nothing stays hidden to our sight, though hidden by Google,” the caption reads. A second photo of the site, taken apparently with night vision or a similar technology, reveals the hidden structures redacted by Google.

G42, OpenAI, Oracle, NVIDIA, Cisco, and SoftBank collaborated to establish the UAE Stargate AI project. Group 42 Holding Ltd, commonly known as G42, is an Emirati AI development holding company headquartered in Abu Dhabi. Oracle, NVIDIA, and Cisco were specifically mentioned in a previous IRGC threat.

The initiative is led by Sam Altman of OpenAI, Larry Ellison of Oracle, and Masayoshi Son of SoftBank, and all three are billionaires. OpenAI and Microsoft provide artificial intelligence for the IDF. CEO and founder Sam Altman, during a meeting with Israeli President Isaac Herzog, said “Israel will play a huge role in AI development.” Ellison, the second richest man in the world, has donated millions to the Friends of the IDF and maintains close ties with the Israeli leadership, including Benjamin Netanyahu. Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank Group invests in Israeli technology, particularly in AI and cybersecurity. Son also invests in Israeli tech startups, including Lemonade, Compass, and WeWork.

The Stargate Project, a five data center, $400 billion investment, is supported by President Trump. The original site is located in Abilene, Texas, with subsequent sites in Lordstown, Ohio, and Milam County, Texas. Trump pushed the project through an AI action plan released in July. The initiative aims to federalize state-level AI regulations and accelerate the development of AI.

The massive 1-gigawatt Stargate UAE data center is the world’s largest AI computing cluster outside of the United States. G42 has a plan to expand the facility to encompass a 10-square-mile site with up to 5 gigawatts of power. Stargate represents the first international deployment of OpenAI infrastructure in West Asia. It is designed to enhance “sovereign” AI capabilities in the Gulf. Due to Stargate’s large scale and enormous energy requirements, it has been compared to the Manhattan Project.

“Safeguarding our models is a continuous commitment and a core pillar of our security posture,” explains Altman’s OpenAI. “Every OpenAI model deployment is governed by a rigorous, continuously evolving security framework that spans information security, governance, and physical infrastructure… We will continue to invest significantly in defense-in-depth measures that address physical security, insider threats, supply chain, and advanced cyber risks.”

Iran has demonstrated “physical security” of enemy infrastructure is no longer realistic. For more than a decade, it has worked to improve the precision and lethality of its ballistic missiles. It is estimated Iran has up to 80,000 Shahed loitering munitions and can produce hundreds daily. If the United States was unable to secure its $1.1 billion ballistic missile tracking system in Qatar, there is little chance it will be able to protect corporate assets in West Asia. If the crown jewel of Stargate AI is taken out in the UAE, it is likely the project will fail, with the loss of $30 billion or more.

The IRGC notice threatens the entire AI buildout in West Asia. “The Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have aggressively positioned themselves as neutral computing corridors, offering cheap energy, abundant capital, and favorable regulatory environments,” reports Startup Fortune.

Companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have committed tens of billions to the region, betting that its strategic location between Europe, Asia, and Africa makes it an ideal hub for data processing. The IRGC threat challenges that assumption directly, as the Times of India reported, signaling what could be a deliberate shift toward targeting high-value Western technology assets in the Gulf.

Iran remains steadfast in its demands: reparations for damages caused by military action, the withdrawal of US forces from the Persian Gulf, safeguards against future attacks, including attacks against resistance groups, and Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Short of achieving its objectives, Iran will continue to ascend the escalation ladder and target critical infrastructure in Israel and Persian Gulf nations complicit in a disastrous war initiated by Israel and the United States.

April 6, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Wars for Israel | , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Iran Threatens Retaliatory Strike on Stargate AI Project in UAE

Russia Warns of Retaliation as UK Authorizes Seizure of Vessels

teleSUR – April 5, 2026

Russia has warned that British government attempts to seize vessels linked to Moscow will trigger retaliatory measures currently being prepared, with the Russian ambassador stating that London authorities will face a surprise response.

The warning came from Russian Ambassador to the United Kingdom Andrei Kelin, who urged the British government to consider the consequences of its actions and the fate of illegally seized cargo. He added that shipowners will inevitably turn to international courts to demand payment of damages and related costs stemming from any seizures.

Last March, London authorized its military forces to board sanctioned vessels transiting British territorial waters. The UK plan also includes closing the English Channel passage to the so‑called shadow fleet, which transports Russian energy products to international markets.

The seizure policy follows an expansion of the UK sanctions list on February 26, which added 297 new entries. That round affected 240 legal entities, seven individuals, and 50 merchant marine vessels linked to Moscow.

According to the Castellum.AI database updated as of August 15, approximately 23,960 individual and sectoral sanctions have been imposed against Russia. That volume of punitive measures has accumulated since the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has denounced the Western containment policy as not a situational reaction but a long‑term strategy. He maintains that the imposition of unilateral sanctions deals a structural blow to global economic stability and supply chains.

April 5, 2026 Posted by | Economics, War Crimes | , | Comments Off on Russia Warns of Retaliation as UK Authorizes Seizure of Vessels

There is no military solution to Strait of Hormuz

By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | April 4, 2026 

Indian media have spread misconceptions over the meeting convened by the UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper on Thursday 2nd April regarding the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. Far-fetched conclusions are drawn that the meeting marked the first step toward forming a coalition to restore safe passage; plans include clearing mines from the waterway in consultation with military planners in the coming weeks, and so on. 

We should not frighten the Indian community living in the Persian Gulf region. A military confrontation with Iran  is not even in the wildest dreams of anyone in Europe. The US didn’t even attend the London meet.  

The statement issued after the event does not contemplate coercive measures, leave alone military solution. The London statement outlined 4 action points: first, “increase diplomatic pressure on Iran, including through the UN”; second, “Explore co-ordinated economic and political measures, such as sanctions”; third, “work together with the International Maritime Organisation”; and, fourth, “Joint arrangements to support greater market and operational confidence.” 

Interestingly, Canberra, one of the few participating countries with credible maritime capability to mount amphibious operations categorically ruled itself out from any such wild adventure. The Australian FM who attended the London meeting since issued an unequivocal statement on April 3, which underscored: 

“The focus of last night’s meeting was diplomatic and civilian initiatives countries could pursue to make the Strait of Hormuz accessible and safe… Australia is not taking offensive action against Iran and we are not deploying troops on the ground in Iran. The Australian Government continues to support de-escalation and the resolution of this conflict.”

Equally, France openly opposes any military option. President Emmanuel Macron said attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by military means would take an uncertain amount of time and expose participants to risks from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC]. “This has never been the option that we’ve chosen, and we think it’s unrealistic,” Macron said. Italy and Germany also have opposed the entire US-Israeli aggression against Iran. 

India chose to avoid even a cursory reference to the Strait of Hormuz. Its  readout was titled, “Foreign Secretary’s participation in the meeting hosted by UK on the situation in West Asia (April 02, 2026).” India did not sign up on the joint statement. 

Meanwhile, the UN security Council postponed a vote scheduled for Friday on authorising the use of “defensive” force to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian attacks following reservations on the part of 3 out of five veto-holding members — France, Russia and China. 

China has taken a strong position. “Authorising member states to use force would amount to legitimising the unlawful and indiscriminate use of force, which would inevitably lead to further escalation of the situation and lead to serious consequences,” said Chinese ambassador Fu Cong. 

Suffice to say, it is hard to see Russia and China supporting a resolution that treats stability in the Strait of Hormuz exclusively as a security issue. Also, disagreements over the resolution have arisen among the 10 non-permanent members of the UN Security Council. On its part, Tehran has forewarned against any intrusive resolution. “Any provocative action by the aggressors and their supporters, including in the UN Security Council regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, will only complicate the situation,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.   

The Strait of Hormuz has a formidable geography, which favours Iran. The narrow coastline is littered with caves on the cliff. CNN carried a feature article last week titled Mines, missiles and miles of coastline: Why Iran has the upper hand in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Trump in his speech on Wednesday regarding the war virtually acknowledged that the US understands that it cannot open the Strait of Hormuz through the use of force. He said it is up to countries dependent on the strait for economic livelihood, to open the waterway. 

The only way to resolve the crisis is through an agreement with Iran which of course requires that the concerned country is not hostile towards Iran, not sanctioning Iran or facilitating the US military operations against Iran from its territory. Provided it is a benign interlocutor, such a country can approach the IRGC for a permit to take its ship through the strait. Certainly, in the present war conditions, the IRGC personnel will board the ship, inspect the its cargo, verify the ownership, check the nationality of sailors on board, where the cargo was loaded and its destination, etc.

Once the IRGC green lights the vessel, it will give a code with which the ship can signal Iran’s coastal defences and go through the strait. China, India, Turkey, Japan, Bangladesh, South Korea, etc have shown the way by taking up the issue bilaterally with Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz lies in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. These two countries are presently drafting a protocol for the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran may be gaining out of this situation. After all, it has already shaken off the embargo on its own exports and the US had to issue a waiver allowing its oil exports. Tehran can expect the acquiescence of the international community eventually to its de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz. It will be undoubtedly a historic shift in the geopolitics of the region. Some sort of modus vivendii amongst the regional states may ensue once the war ends and it becomes clear that there is no military solution to the Strait of Hormuz. 

Israel is spreading alarmist stories that Saudi Arabia is following the footfalls of the UAE to get the US to intervene militarily to force open the Strait of Hormuz. On the contrary, Saudis are working with like-minded countries to create underpinnings of regional stability in the fluid situation adjusting to the shift of tectonic plates. The leitmotif of the Islamabad meeting of FMs recently — Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia plus Pakistan — was actually more about regional and global stability than for arranging a meeting between JD Vance and Steve Witkoff with Iranian officials. 

The Islamabad meeting reached some sort of an agreement following which the Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar paid a hurried trip to Beijing. A major outcome of the visit has been a 5-point initiative by China and Pakistan on March 31 on the Gulf and Middle East Region with focus on

  • Immediate Cessation of Hostilities,
  • Start of peace talks as soon as possible,
  • Security of nonmilitary targets,
  • Security of shipping lanes, and,
  • Primacy of the United Nations Charter. 

Significantly, two days later, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also spoke on the phone reconnecting after some interlude to discuss and revive the pursuit of their congruent interests , including OPEC Plus. The Saudi and Russian readouts omitted any reference to the Strait of Hormuz. 

Advantage goes to Tehran geopolitically. Iran will use this as trump card to get the western sanctions lifted. Tehran has offered to negotiate an agreement with the EU on the use of the Strait of Hormuz.

To be sure, Trump blundered by attacking Iran and creating war conditions unilaterally, thereby handing over to Tehran the perfect alibi to come out of isolation and even make the Strait of Hormuz a big revenue earner. The Suez Canal fetches Egypt approx. $700 million as toll annually. In comparison, the Strait of Hormuz is estimated to bring in anywhere up to 1 billion dollars annually. 

April 4, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Militarism | , , | Comments Off on There is no military solution to Strait of Hormuz

NATO’s structural collapse – the outcome of deviation from reality

Global Times | April 3, 2026

When Donald Trump threatened to withdraw the US from NATO, Western capitals seemed not to show particular surprise; it was clear they had anticipated it. But the more important question is why, at this particular moment, such a statement could be made at all.

NATO’s current crisis is the consequence of a slow, structural erosion that has been underway for decades. It is also due to its inability to keep pace with the rapidly developing multipolar world.

The alliance’s original logic was straightforward. The Soviet Union posed a clear and present danger. Western Europe needed American protection. Washington needed strategic depth on the European continent. The threat was real, shared, and sufficient to hold divergent interests together.

That threat disappeared in 1991. NATO did not. Instead of dissolving, the alliance tried to consolidate its coherence. Therefore, it had to find a new target.

It began expanding eastward, then globally. Some voices have called for extending its reach into the Indo-Pacific, even to form an “economic NATO” against China, raising questions about NATO’s strategic focus and relevance in a changing world.

An alliance that must continually invent new enemies to justify its existence is already in structural trouble.

In an increasingly multipolar world, NATO’s attempt to wield military power, primarily through American power, to manage global affairs is no longer possible. However, some within NATO have not recognized this change.

The deeper problem is that Western interests have quietly but fundamentally diverged. When the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, Europe absorbed the consequences, including soaring energy prices, industrial outflow, and waves of refugees. Today, Europe’s economic outlook is sluggish, and trade friction with the US persists.

Europe has begun asking an uncomfortable question: Are we defending shared values that unite us, or merely subsidizing others’ strategic ambitions? This distinction has raised doubts about the alliance’s purpose.

The war in Iran has sharpened that question considerably.

European governments refused to participate. Even Britain, Washington’s most reliable partner, declined. This was not betrayal but a calculation rooted in domestic political shifts and strategic priorities, illustrating how internal political changes in key NATO members influence alliance cohesion and decision-making.

Trump’s rise is itself a symptom of deeper forces. America’s middle class has hollowed out. The US failures in Afghanistan and Iraq destroyed the domestic legitimacy of overseas intervention. Younger Americans show little attachment to the idea of their country as the world’s indispensable guarantor.

The fiscal arithmetic is unforgiving. The US federal debt has exceeded $36 trillion. Interest payments now surpass the defense budget. The cost of maintaining a global military presence is real, recurring, and increasingly unsustainable. This is not ideology. It is arithmetic.

As for an economic NATO directed at China, the very ambition reveals the depth of Western strategic anxiety. But if the military alliance is already fracturing, what would hold together a coalition that would ask its members to prepare for a long economic war with China, the world’s second-largest economy? Such a move would be fatal for NATO member states.

The idea of using NATO to expand Western ideology globally is either out of touch with the times or simply foolish. NATO no longer possesses that kind of power.

History offers no example of a great power that maintained its global commitments indefinitely after internal contradictions, economic decline, and domestic fractures. The US will not be the exception, highlighting the need for strategic adaptation.

NATO’s story is not yet finished. But the forces pulling it apart are not the invention of any single administration. They are the accumulated weight of unresolved contradictions, contradictions that have been building since the wall came down.

Trump did not create that weight. He simply brought forward the moment it hit the ground.

The war in Iran has provided the world with a window into what awaits hegemonic powers if they fail to keep pace with global progress. The fate of NATO is no exception.

April 4, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Militarism, Russophobia | , , | Comments Off on NATO’s structural collapse – the outcome of deviation from reality

Attack in the Bosphorus exposes NATO weaknesses and tensions among allies

By Lucas Leiroz | Strategic Culture Foundation | April 3, 2026

The recent attack on the Turkish oil tanker M/T Altura, which took place on March 26, 2026, near the Bosphorus region, makes clear a problem that many analysts still avoid acknowledging: NATO can no longer guarantee the security of even its own members. The operation, carried out by Ukraine, should not be seen as an isolated episode, but as part of a broader pattern pointing to the alliance’s practical erosion.

NATO was founded on the principle of collective defense. However, when a member state has its interests directly affected by the actions of an actor supported by the alliance itself, that principle loses coherence. The M/T Altura case highlights a contradiction that is hard to ignore: the alliance has proven unable to limit the actions of external partners against the assets of its own members.

The lack of an effective response to the incident is also striking. There are no clear signs that NATO’s internal mechanisms have been activated to hold anyone accountable or to prevent similar actions. This suggests not only institutional weakness, but also failures in coordination and strategic direction. In practice, some actors appear to operate with broad autonomy, even when their decisions directly affect the security of member states.

In this context, Ukraine’s role becomes central. Heavily funded and armed by NATO countries, Kiev has been adopting an increasingly direct and, at times, reckless posture. The fact that such an operation targeted the interests of a country like Turkey reveals a lack of alignment within the alliance. Instead of coordination, what emerges is a dynamic in which tactical decisions produce broader consequences for formal allies.

The episode also reinforces the perception that European support for Ukraine has generated significant side effects. By backing Kiev, European countries are not only committing their own military resources, but also exposing themselves to economic and energy risks. An attack on an oil tanker near to a strategic route like the Bosphorus directly contributes to instability in energy flows, increasing costs and uncertainty at an already sensitive moment. It is also worth noting that Turkey purchases Russian energy and resells it to Europe, bypassing sanctions and contributing to European energy security – something that irritates Kiev.

For Turkey, the implications are even more serious. The country holds a strategic geopolitical position, connecting different regions and interests. Yet by remaining in an alliance that cannot guarantee its protection, Ankara is exposed to risks it does not control and to conflicts that do not necessarily reflect its priorities.

The attack on the M/T Altura should therefore be seen as a warning. If NATO cannot prevent an actor it supports from striking the strategic assets of one of its own members, then its practical value for countries like Turkey comes into question. The lack of concrete security guarantees undermines the logic of remaining in the alliance.

Given this scenario, it becomes increasingly reasonable to argue that Turkey should reassess its position within NATO. Remaining in an alliance that fails to provide effective protection while increasing exposure to risk may represent more of a burden than a benefit. A more independent foreign policy would allow Ankara to diversify its partnerships and act in closer alignment with its own strategic interests.

Ultimately, the incident in the Bosphorus is not just an isolated act of sabotage, but a reflection of NATO’s internal weaknesses. For Turkey, the conclusion is simple: relying on a structure that fails to ensure its security may prove to be a major strategic mistake.

April 4, 2026 Posted by | Economics, War Crimes | , , | Comments Off on Attack in the Bosphorus exposes NATO weaknesses and tensions among allies

Now everyone is dumping US government bonds

Inside China Business | April 3, 2026

Foreign central banks and institution are selling off their holdings of US Treasury bonds. The war against Iran is driving bondholders to dump US government debt at a record pace, and foreign Treasury holdings at the NY Fed are at the lowest level in nearly fifteen years. The heavy liquidations are driving bond yields in the United States higher, and borrowing costs for government, and American households and businesses, are spiking higher. 

Resources and links:

Foreign Central Banks Cut New York Fed Treasury Holdings To 2012 Lows https://finimize.com/content/foreign-…

China is dumping US treasuries and buying Gold https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/chi…

Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries amid war in Iran https://ft.pressreader.com/1389/20260…

China’s Years-Long Retreat From US Treasuries Flags Bigger Risks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl…

Chinese Bonds Are Appealing as Reserve Assets, Gavekal Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl…

China surpasses $1 trillion trade surplus despite Trump tariffs https://businessreport.co.za/business…

Lesson 3 (above). Balance of Payments — Why Current and Capital Accounts Net Out. https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/khan-a…

April 3, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Video, Wars for Israel | , , | Comments Off on Now everyone is dumping US government bonds

Trump and the debris of Iran war

US President Donald Trump shared a video of Iran’s B1 bridge, billed as the country’s tallest bridge, collapsing after US air strike, April 3, 2026
By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | April 3, 2026

The only clue the US President Donald Trump has given in his prime time televised speech on Wednesday at the White House regarding the ending of his war in Iran is that the core “objectives are nearing completion” and that he is “very close” to finishing the war.

The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy “bridges next, then electric power plants”. 

Revealing himself primarily as YHWH (Yahweh) in the Old Testament — the personal, holy, and covenant-making Creator who demands exclusive worship from Israel — Trump thundered, “Over the next two to three weeks, we are going to bring them [Iranians] back to the Stone Ages, where they belong” . 

Yet, Iran is in no mood to surrender. Tehran has lost respect for Trump and instead sees him as a master craftsman of the art of deception. The Iranian statements underscore that the US intelligence lacks even the foggiest idea of its capabilities to retaliate. 

Perhaps, the most vicious no-holds-barred phase of the war is about to begin, with a dynamics of its own — in particular, taking into account the Israel factor, which is a revisionist power seeking to alter the established international order, rules, territorial boundaries or distribution of power in the West Asian region to better serve the establishment of a Zionist state of Greater Israel. 

Israel is keeping its options open to further territorial expansion, the latest evidence being the assault on Lebanon and its back-tracking from US-backed negotiations with Syria. Unsurprisingly, Iran insists that any peace deal must encompass all issues of regional stability and security. 

Wars have consequences. They leave behind a lot of debris. But this is not about Iran’s reconstruction alone for which of course, it is legitimately seeking war reparations and a security guarantee.

The bottom line is, after creating new facts on the ground, Trump may simply walk away to the golf course. The most consequential new reality is that the Strait of Hormuz is transforming as a waterway. 

By coincidence, the first reaction to Trump’s address on Wednesday came from the global oil market, as prices of rose to $105 per barrel. The Oil Price magazine which provides forward-looking intelligence  for energy traders and investment professionals was spot on in its prognosis that “Long-suffering energy investors finally have a reason to smile, with the sector on track to outperform the broader market by its widest margin on record, driven by Middle East conflict … The energy sector’s 14-week winning streak far exceeds previous bull runs. 

“Oil & Gas stocks have easily outpaced the erstwhile high-flying tech sector… Leading the charge are U.S. oil majors” — Exxon Mobil returned 33.1% YTD; Chevron Corp (28.5%); Occidental Petroleum (49.6%); ConocoPhillips (38.5%); Marathon Petroleum (43.8%). Wall Street must be feeling elated. 

According to Financial Times:

“[US War Secretary] Pete Hegseth’s broker at Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock in February to make a multimillion-dollar investment in a defence-focused Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) called IDEF.

“This $3.2 billion fund is built around companies that benefit from increased military spending, including RTX, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Palantir — all major Pentagon contractors.

“The request came just weeks before the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, a campaign Hegseth helped shape and strongly supported within the Trump administration.”

Larry Johnson, who worked in the CIA and is by far one of the best American commentators on Trump’s war (and geopolitics in general), wrote a blog this week titled Who Else, Besides Pete Hegseth, is Trying to Use the War in Iran to Get Rich? To quote him, “If you do the analysis on the weapons expended so far in the month-long war with Iran, the opportunity for war profiteering is quite clear… The high expenditure rates, combined with historically low peacetime production [of weaponry] have created a serious “race of attrition” that cannot be quickly reversed.” 

Johnson flagged as example that both Patriot and THAAD interceptors are primarily manufactured by Lockheed Martin. He adds, “Which means that Lockheed Martin can expect a major influx of cash to boost production and try to replenish exhausted missile air defence inventories. I wonder who else in the Trump administration and the US Congress are making money off this bloody war?” 

Setting aside the sleaze and corruption endemic to America’s wars, like night follows the day, the single new fact on the ground today that has explosive potential and can bring the roof down on the international financial system is the terrible beauty about the Strait of Hormuz as Iran decided to control the use of the waterway by outsiders in war conditions, which is nothing unusual (eg., Straits of Bosphorus which Turkey and Russia control.)  

Since the waterway passes through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, these two countries are entitled to have a say in the regime of maritime traffic in war conditions. It’s a legitimate demand. Nonetheless, Iran is showing flexibility by allowing traffic by “benign” vessels not linked to the two enemy countries, US and Israel. It stands to reason that this flexibility will eventually transform in a post-war scenario into a rational, efficient, secure regime. 

Meanwhile, the cascading price of oil has the potential to impact the world economy. Since petrodollar recycling is also involved, this will hit international finance as well — the western banking system in particular —  unless it is resolved quickly, smoothly and peacefully with the consent of Iran and Oman. Trump has tactfully made it the concern of Europeans and the Gulf Arab states, the US’ partners in crime in petrodollar recycling who help prop up the dollar as “world currency.” 

Hopefully, India’s stance, as articulated by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri at a meeting hosted in London yesterday, provides a ramp that can be the basis of a permanent solution — namely, “the way out of the crisis consisted of de-escalation and a return to the path of diplomacy and dialogue among all concerned parties.” 

Notably, India did not sign up to the meeting’s final statement which expressed readiness by participants to contribute to “appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.” Meanwhile, India’s direct talks with Tehran have been productive and yielded positive results.    

April 3, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Militarism, War Crimes, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Trump and the debris of Iran war

Gulf states weigh pipeline expansion plans, hoping to bypass Hormuz

Al Mayadeen | April 2, 2026

Gulf Arab states are increasingly reconsidering long-discussed pipeline projects aimed at bypassing the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, as the war on Iran raises concerns among them over how Iran showed its capability to gain control over the waterway.

Officials and energy industry executives say the prospect of prolonged Iranian control over the strait has revived interest in alternative overland export routes, despite the high financial, political, and logistical barriers such projects entail.

The war on Iran and the subsequent defensive operations have revived the viability of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a 1,200-kilometer network constructed in the 1980s following the Iran-Iraq “tanker war”. The pipeline, which carries up to 7 million barrels of crude oil per day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allows Saudi exports to bypass Hormuz entirely.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser recently described the pipeline as the “main route” currently being utilized, highlighting its strategic value amid regional instability. The kingdom is now assessing options to expand the pipeline’s capacity or develop additional routes to transport a larger share of its daily oil production, estimated at over 10 million barrels, away from the Gulf.

Analysts note that Gulf policymakers are increasingly shifting from theoretical discussions to concrete planning. Maisoon Kafafy, a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council, a US-based think tank that received extensive funding from the United Arab Emirates, said regional actors are now converging on similar conclusions regarding the need for diversified export infrastructure.

Network approach under consideration

Rather than relying on a single alternative, experts suggest a network of interconnected pipelines. However, such an approach would require unprecedented coordination among Gulf states, potentially challenging longstanding energy strategies that often conflict.

In the longer term, these pipelines could form part of broader trade corridors linking Asia to Europe. Behind them is the Israeli-led, India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) proposal, a US-backed initiative that aims to funnel Asia-Europe trade through Israeli-controlled ports.

Despite renewed interest in the plan, major obstacles remain. Industry estimates suggest that replicating infrastructure similar to the East-West pipeline could cost at least $5 billion, while more complex multi-country routes, such as those extending from Iraq through Jordan, Syria, or Turkiye, could reach $15–20 billion.

Security concerns further complicate planning, particularly in countries of the region that are subject to US-Israeli aggression, where attacks on critical infrastructure remain highly possible. Geographical challenges also present difficulties, with proposed routes requiring construction across deserts and mountainous terrain.

Saudi Arabia is also reportedly evaluating the development of additional export terminals along its Red Sea coastline, including facilities linked to the NEOM megaproject.

What is actually feasible

Gulf states have moved beyond simple infrastructure expansion. By hosting and assisting US forces and directly supporting military attacks, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have transitioned from neutral bystanders to active participants in the regional aggression. However, this alignment has come at a high cost; the strategy of relying on bypass routes like the East-West pipeline and the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline is failing to provide economic stability as Tehran proves capable of striking US interests in these zones with ease.

Questions surrounding ownership, control, and operational management of transnational pipelines could also hinder progress on these projects, particularly given the need for regional cooperation.

Efforts to seize control of the maritime route are ongoing, with the United Kingdom reportedly leading talks involving more than 30 countries on the Strait of Hormuz. Yet, a glaring question remains: why target the reaction, Iranian control over Hormuz, while the root cause, US-Israeli aggression, continues to be ignored?

April 2, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Wars for Israel | , , , | Comments Off on Gulf states weigh pipeline expansion plans, hoping to bypass Hormuz

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