Mohammad Marandi: Iran Prepares for War with America
Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi and Prof. Glenn Diesen
Glenn Diesen | June 19, 2025
Seyed Mohammad Marandi is a professor at Tehran University and a former advisor to Iran’s Nuclear Negotiation Team. Prof. Marandi discusses the US preparations to enter the war directly, and Iran’s preparations to fight the US. Trump will only accept Iran’s surrender, yet he does not appear to have the means to achieve this objective. What will happen if US strikes are ineffective and US military assets in the region are attacked? The only path forward now is reckless escalation.
Israel’s war on Iran is not about nuclear weapons
It is, and has always been, about regime change and breaking the Axis of Resistance
By Robert Inlakesh | RT | June 19, 2025
The claim that has been adopted by the United States, Israel and its European partners, that the attack on Iran was a “pre-emptive” attempt to stop Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, is demonstrably false. It holds about as much weight as the allegations against Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 2003 and this war of aggression is just as illegal.
For the best part of four decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been claiming that Iran is on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon. Yet, every single attempt to strike a deal which would bring more monitoring and restrictions to Iran’s nuclear program has been systematically dismantled by Israel and its powerful lobbying groups in Western capitals.
In order to properly assess Israel’s attack on Iran, we have to establish the facts in this case. The Israeli leadership claim to have launched a pre-emptive strike, but have presented no evidence to support their allegations that Iran was on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon. Simply stating this does not serve as proof, it is a claim, similar to how the US told the world Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction.
Back in March, the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard testified before a Senate Intelligence Committee that the intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”
On top of this, Iran was actively participating in indirect negotiations with the US to reach a new version of the 2015 Nuclear Deal. Donald Trump announced Washington would unilaterally withdraw from the agreement in 2018, instead pursuing a “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign at the behest of Israel.
Despite the claims of Netanyahu and Trump that Iran was violating the Nuclear Deal, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a report which stated Iran was in full compliance with the deal at the time.
If you trace back every conversation with neo-conservatives, Israeli war hawks and Washington-based think tanks, their opposition to the Obama-era Nuclear Deal always ends up spiraling into the issues of Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for regional non-State actors.
Israeli officials frequently make claims about Iran producing a nuclear weapon in “years”, “months” or even “weeks,” this has become almost second nature. Yet their main issue has always been with Iran’s support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, who strive for the creation of a Palestinian State.
Proof of all this is simple. Israel, by itself, cannot destroy Iran’s vast nuclear program. It is not clear the US can destroy it either, even if it enters the war. An example of the US’ ineffectiveness at penetrating Iranian-style bunkers, built into mountainous ranges, as many of Iran’s nuclear facilities are, was demonstrated through the American failure to destroy missile storage bases in Yemen with its bunker-buster munitions, which were dropped from B-2 bombers.
Almost immediately after launching his war on Iran, Netanyahu sent out a message in English to the Iranian people, urging them to overthrow their government in an attempt to trigger civil unrest. The Israeli prime minister has since all but announced that regime change is his true intention, claiming that the operation “may lead” to regime change.
Israel’s own intelligence community and military elites have also expressed their view that their air force alone is not capable of destroying the Iranian nuclear program. So why then launch this war, if it is not possible to achieve the supposed reason it was “pre-emptively” launched?
There are two possible explanations:
The first is that the Israeli prime minister has launched this assault on Iran as a final showdown in his “seven front war,” with which he hopes to conclude the regional conflict through a deadly exchange that will ultimately inflict damage on both sides.
In this scenario, the desired outcome would be to conclude the war with the claim that Netanyahu has succeeded at destroying or has significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear program. He would also throw in claims, like we already see him making, that huge numbers of Iranian missiles and drones were eliminated. This would also make the opening Israeli strike, which killed senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and nuclear scientists, make sense. It would all be the perfect blend of propaganda to sell a victory narrative.
On the other hand, the assumption would be that Tehran would also claim victory. Then both sides are able to show the results to their people and tensions cool down for a while. If you are to read what the Washington-based think-tanks are saying about this, most notably The Heritage Foundation, they speak about the ability to contain the war.
The second explanation, which could be an added bonus that the Israelis and US are hoping could come as a result of their efforts, is that this is a full-scale regime change war that is designed to rope in the US.
Israel’s military prestige was greatly damaged in the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, and since that time there has been no victory achieved over any enemy. Hamas is still operating in Gaza and is said to have just as many fighters as when the war began, Hezbollah was dealt significant blows but is still very much alive, while Yemen’s Ansarallah has only increased its strength. This is an all round stunning defeat of the Israeli military and an embarrassment to the US.
As is well known, Iran is the regional power that backs all of what is called the Axis of Resistance. Without it, groups like Hezbollah and Hamas would be significantly degraded. Evidently, armed resistance to Israeli occupation will never end as long as occupied people exist and live under oppressive rule, but destroying Iran would be devastating for the regional alliance against Israel.
The big question however, is whether regime change is even possible. There is a serious question mark here and it seems much more likely that this will end up on a slippery slope to nuclear war instead.
What makes the Israeli-US claim that this war is somehow pre-emptive, for which there is no proof at all, all the more ridiculous of a notion, is that if anything, Iran may now actually rush to acquire a nuclear weapon for defensive purposes. If they can’t even trust the Israelis not to bomb them with US backing, while negotiations were supposed to be happening, then how can a deal ever be negotiated?
Even in the event that the US joins and deals a major blow to the Iranian nuclear program, it doesn’t mean that Iran will simply abandon the program altogether. Instead, Tehran could simply end up rebuilding and acquiring the bomb years later. Another outcome of this war could end up being Israeli regime change, which also appears as if it could now be on the table.
Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the Palestinian territories and currently works with Quds News. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’.
Decoding Iran’s strategy in current war
By Amro Allan | Al Mayadeen | June 18, 2025
Iran’s Foreign Minister has made it clear in multiple statements that the Islamic Republic remains open to re-engaging the diplomatic track, provided that the US-Israeli aggression against the country comes to an end. At the same time, however, IRGC Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour has declared, “Even if the Israeli attacks stop, we will continue our mission to the end.” These seemingly contradictory positions raise a key question: What exactly is Iran’s objective in this confrontation, and how should its strategy be understood? More pressingly, what role is the United States playing on the battlefield?
Tehran understands that the ultimate goal of the current assault, launched in the early hours of June 13, is not simply aggressive, but existential. The US-Israeli axis seeks nothing less than the collapse of the Islamic Republic itself. According to most military analysts, neutralizing Iran’s nuclear programme through conventional means is well beyond the capabilities of the Israeli military. This is particularly true when it comes to heavily fortified enrichment facilities like Natanz and Fordow, which are among the most secure sites in the world against aerial and missile strikes.
To strike such hardened targets, advanced bunker-busting munitions would be required, arms that are exclusively in the hands of the US military. What’s more, the only aircraft capable of delivering these weapons—the B-2 stealth bomber—operates solely under the command of the United States Air Force. Some experts even question whether these bombs would be effective against Iran’s most deeply buried and reinforced sites.
Both Washington and Tel Aviv are fully aware of these limitations, which cast serious doubt on their publicly stated rationale for launching the war. This scepticism is only reinforced by Netanyahu’s early appeal, issued just hours after the attack, urging Iranians to rise up against their own government, a move that tacitly reveals the true aim of the aggression.
This level of strategic ambition has been absent from previous assaults on Iran. The assassination of Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, Commander of the IRGC Quds Force, in January 2020, “Israel’s” missile strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April 2024, and the attack on an air defense site near Isfahan inside Iran later that month, none of these triggered the same level of overt intent to destabilise the Iranian state.
It is this shift in objective that explains Iran’s evolving response. Unlike past retaliatory actions, such as the missile strike on the Ain al-Assad US base in January 2020, or Operation True Promise 1 and 2 of April and October 2024, Iran’s current posture signals a long-term strategic engagement rather than a calibrated response.
Tehran does not appear eager to escalate the conflict into a regional war, fully aware that such a scenario could have catastrophic consequences not just for itself, but for the wider Middle East. Still, it is determined to impose a high cost on its adversaries, one that restores the balance of deterrence and redraws the lines of power in the region.
This approach was articulated clearly by Iranian Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei, who warned, “We will not allow the Zionists to escape unscathed for this great crime. The Zionist entity has committed a grave miscalculation—one that will bring ruin upon them, by God’s grace.”
It is in this context that General Pakpour’s remarks must be understood. Iran’s continuation of Operation True Promise 3 is not dependent on whether “Israel” halts its attacks. Rather, it is driven by a broader aim: to establish new rules of engagement and a new balance of power, irrespective of short-term developments.
At the same time, the Foreign Minister’s comments point to Iran’s reluctance to turn this war into a fight for national survival, unless forced to do so by further escalation from the other side.
But “Israel’s” failure to cripple the Islamic Republic in its initial, high-stakes strike, an operation designed to fundamentally alter the regional power balance, makes direct American involvement more likely in the days ahead. Washington may now feel compelled to interfere in order to accomplish what Tel Aviv could not.
All this suggests that the risk of escalation remains high. The war could soon expand to include oil infrastructure across the Gulf and target US military bases scattered throughout the region.
This leaves a crucial question hanging in the balance: Will key regional powers, Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, and Pakistan, recognize the gravity of what is unfolding? And will they act accordingly, acknowledging that the war being waged by the US-Israeli alliance poses a serious threat to their own security, sovereignty, and future stability?
Middle East in Crisis – 3
Trump orders ‘unconditional surrender’ by Iran. Who’s listening?
By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | June 18, 2025
Israel’s blitzkrieg against Iran five days ago is failing spectacularly. The Russian media reported that: i) Israel’s Rafael weapons complex has been destroyed; ii) Haifa oil refinery is in flames; iii) the Iron Dome has been breached; iv) and, Israel’s air dominance is a figment of imagination.
On Tuesday, Iran fired cruise missiles for the first time against Israel. Another wave of Iranian missile and drone attack targeted the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, where stealth fighter jets, transport aircraft, tanker aircraft and machines for electronic reconnaissance/surveillance, etc. are stationed.
Some Iranian reports claim that “plumes of smoke were rising from areas near the Dimona nuclear facility,” where an estimated 90 Israeli nuclear warheads are stored. If true, this must be highly embarrassing for Israel which has been maintaining a policy of deliberate ambiguity in regard to its nuclear capabilities as well as for President Donald Trump who is constantly hectoring Iran while turning a blind eye on Israel’s clandestine nuclear weapon stockpiles right under his nose — apart from exposing the IAEA.
According to the independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Israel’s nuclear warheads are capable of being delivered anywhere within a maximum radius of 4,500 km by its F-15, F-161, and F-35I “Adir” aircraft, its 50 land-based Jericho II and III missiles, and by about 20 Popeye Turbo cruise missiles, launched from submarines.
Suffice to say, rational minds among the Israeli elite feel worried. Typically, Danny Yatom, former head of Mossad, is quoted as saying, “Iranians will not kneel; they will not raise the flag of surrender and they will not give in!”
The American broadcast television network NBC has reported that Israel asked Iran, through western mediators, to stop its retaliatory attacks and return to nuclear negotiations. This would probably explain Trump’s bombastic post on Sunday in Truth Social that Israel and Iran will end their violent conflict by “making a deal” through his mediation. Trump wrote, ”We will have peace, soon, between Israel and Iran. Many calls and meetings now taking place.” He even drew the analogy of his success in brokering peace between India and Pakistan recently.
However, the realisation may have since dawned on Trump that Iranians will not forget or forgive the assassinations of their military commanders or the destruction and loss of life of dozens of civilians in the Israeli Blitzkrieg, which targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and residential buildings in Tehran and other cities.
Trump has a major decision to take in coming days as regards the next move — specifically, how to rescue Israel from the attritional war that lies ahead. Pressure for US military intervention is mounting. Trump is obligated one way or another to all three segments of the Israel Lobby — Zionists, evangelical Christians and wealthy Jewish elites who are kingmakers in American politics.
The pendulum is wildly swinging in Trump’s mercurial mind. He was in an irritable mood at the G-7 summit in Canada on Monday, cut short his trip and picked a nasty public quarrel with French President Emmanuel Macron for simply commenting that Trump hurried back to wrap up a ceasefire.
Trump wrote angrily, “Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a “cease fire” between Israel and Iran. Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!”
Four hours later, he clarified, “I have not reached out to Iran for “Peace Talks” in any way, shape, or form. This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table — Would have saved a lot of lives!!!”
Seven hours later, Trump claimed, “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured “stuff.” Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.”
But a few minutes later, Trump threatened Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: “We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Seven minutes later, another nasty post followed in capital letters: “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
That was 9 hours ago. Presumably, Trump wound up Tuesday by ordering Iran to crawl on its knees. The chances of Iran obliging him are zero. In fact, the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi said on Tuesday that the operations carried out so far have served as a deterrent warning, and the actual “punitive operations” are set to begin soon. The general asked the inhabitants of Tel Aviv and Haifa “to leave these areas for the sake of their lives.”
In fact, an Iranian commentary underscored yesterday that “Israeli strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and southern ports near the Persian Gulf could shift the nature of the conflict dramatically… This is precisely what Iran identifies as its strategic red line.”
The commentary continues: “What we’re witnessing is a multi-level hybrid conflict, a complex puzzle involving direct warfare, proxy engagement, diplomatic pressure, and a simmering “cold peace”—all unfolding at once… But such a scenario is unsustainable, as Israel… knows it cannot endure a prolonged high-intensity conflict.
The commentary estimates that a ceasefire “would likely be a tense calm or a “cold peace” rather than true stability.” Because, “What’s emerging now is a fluid and brutal new balance of power… The Persian Gulf, Israel, the Axis of Resistance, and the global energy market are no longer separate arenas—but interconnected pieces in a simultaneous, high-stakes game.” (here)
The great dilemma for Trump is that there’s no quick fix solution in sight. On his way back to the US yesterday evening, Trump said he wanted a “real end” to the conflict and that he was “not too much in a mood to negotiate.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also noted that Trump was indeed considering that option. The US is rapidly building up its forces in the Gulf region.
However, US intervention may trigger a continental war that will outlive Trump’s presidency and destroy his presidency, as Bush’s 2003 Iraq invasion destroyed his. And Trump might as well forget about America First, MAGA, Ukraine, Taiwan, tariff wars, immigration, inflation, China, etc.
Even European allies won’t stand by Trump. Macron told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit after Trump’s departure, “The biggest mistake today would be to try to do a regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos.” Macron warned that “no one can say what comes next…We never support actions of regional de-stabilisation.”
Do not forget that the skeptics include Vice President JD Vance also, whose suspicion of foreign entanglements had its origins in his time as a US Marine in Iraq, where he became disillusioned with America’s interventionist regime change projects and ill-fated ‘forever wars’ in the region.
Israel’s Strategic Miscalculation and the Dawn of a New World Order
By Peiman Salehi – New Eastern Outlook – June 18, 2025
In June 2025, the world witnessed the outbreak of a full-scale war between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Zionist regime of Israel. This conflict, extending far beyond the military sphere, is reshaping political, media, and geopolitical landscapes. At the onset of hostilities, Israel initiated a surprise operation targeting several high-ranking Iranian military commanders and scientists. Tel Aviv saw this act as a significant achievement, anticipating it would plunge Iran into psychological disarray and delay its response.
Yet, this assumption proved gravely flawed. The Islamic Republic swiftly recovered and, within days, launched a series of unprecedented strikes on key Israeli cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv. The extent of the damage inflicted on strategic infrastructure suggested a deep disruption in the psychological and political equilibrium, signaling a fundamental shift in the rules of engagement. As the conflict escalated, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made concerted efforts to draw the United States into the fray. Donald Trump, who initially reacted with sarcasm to the news of Iranian casualties, soon reversed his tone, presenting himself as a mediator. This rhetorical pivot reflects not a genuine desire for peace, but rather concern over the conflict’s expanding consequences.
From Tehran’s perspective, the war is not simply a reactionary campaign, but a calculated effort to alter the regional balance of power. Iran’s approach indicates a strategic vision aimed at redefining the security architecture of West Asia. Analysts now grapple with a pivotal question: will the war remain confined to regional boundaries, or evolve into a broader global confrontation? The varying positions of nuclear powers from East and West point to emerging global realignments. Nations like Pakistan, India, China, and Russia view the crisis through their distinct strategic lenses.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical relevance of choke points such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab has resurged, underlining their significance to global trade and international stability. This war increasingly appears to be a confrontation between two competing visions of world order. The liberal, US-centric model—characterized by interventionism, hegemonic ambitions, and asymmetric power structures—is facing unprecedented resistance. In its place, a multipolar order championed by emerging powers is gaining traction.
If this moment is seized wisely by independent states and resistance movements, it could mark a turning point in contemporary political history. The world, once declared to have reached the “end of history,” is now experiencing the return of history, fueled by the renewed agency of sovereign nations.
Ultimately, to counter imperial interventions and dismantle imposed global frameworks, this war must be understood not merely as an isolated event, but as a transformative juncture in international relations. Resistance today is not limited to a regional force—it is a global discourse that challenges domination. The choice between submission and resistance is no longer Iran’s alone; it is one that history must now resolve.
Trump faces MAGA rift over possible US role in war on Iran
Al Mayadeen | June 18, 2025
A sharp divide is emerging within Donald Trump’s MAGA base over the war on Iran, with some of the president’s most vocal allies, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, commentator Tucker Carlson, and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, openly questioning whether he is abandoning his “America First” foreign policy.
Following a week of deadly strikes and Trump’s abrupt departure from the G7 summit in Canada, these conservative voices are warning that a deeper US role in the Middle East could fracture the coalition that helped propel Trump to power.
Trump, who has long campaigned on non-interventionism, is now facing backlash from within his movement.
On X, Charlie Kirk wrote, “No issue currently divides the right as much as foreign policy,” adding that he feared a “massive split among MAGA” could disrupt their progress. He and others warned that any perception of Trump backing US military involvement could unravel his core message and political future.
Trump flew back to Washington unexpectedly this week amid rising tensions, and issued a dramatic social media warning, “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” claiming the US knows the location of Iran’s Leader Sayyed Khamenei, but does not intend to target him, “for now.”
These remarks have reignited speculation that Trump may support direct US military action, such as supplying “Israel” with bunker-buster bombs to target Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the State Department and US military have already ordered the voluntary evacuation of nonessential personnel from select diplomatic sites in the region.
Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham is urging Trump to go further. “If that means providing bombs, provide bombs. If that means flying with Israel, fly with Israel,” Graham said on Face the Nation, arguing that now is the moment for Trump to help eliminate Iran’s nuclear program.
MAGA figures accuse Trump of breaking his anti-war promise
Trump’s consideration of a broader US role is facing strong resistance from the same voices who once championed him as a disruptive force in US foreign policy.
Tucker Carlson, long a loyal supporter, warned that Trump is veering dangerously close to betraying the voters who backed him for staying out of foreign wars. “You’re not going to convince me that the Iranian people are my enemy,” Carlson said on Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast.
Carlson also aimed at pro-Trump media allies like Sean Hannity, challenging them to hold Trump accountable for his foreign policy stance. Trump responded to the criticism by calling Carlson “kooky” and reiterating that “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”
Furthermore, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene sided with Carlson, saying she shared his anti-interventionist principles. She posted, “Foreign wars, intervention, and regime change put America last, kill innocent people, make us broke, and lead to our destruction,” adding that “That’s not kooky. That’s what millions of Americans voted for.”
Kirk: MAGA youth voted for peace, not another war
Charlie Kirk, while still supportive of Trump, has echoed concerns about mission drift, noting that younger Trump voters were especially drawn to his record of avoiding new wars. “This is the moment that President Trump was elected for,” Kirk said on Fox News. But later added: “There is historically little support for America to be actively engaged in yet another offensive war in the Middle East.”
He continued, “The last thing America needs right now is a new war…Our number one desire must be peace, as quickly as possible.”
In a similar event, in April, some MAGA-aligned podcasters expressed doubts about looming tariffs and market disruptions. Earlier, Trump criticized Biden’s decision to let Ukraine use US long-range weapons but stopped short of advocating a full aid cutoff, another move that drew rebukes from his isolationist flank.
While these disputes have not derailed Trump’s base, the war on Iran marks one of the clearest tests of whether his coalition can stay united if he edges closer to military engagement abroad
Poll: Americans Support Talks With Iran, Oppose Involvement in Israel’s War
By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | June 17, 2025
A new poll shows that a majority of Americans want President Donald Trump to engage in negotiations with Iran and do not want Washington to support Tel Aviv’s offensive war against the Islamic Republic.
The survey, conducted by YouGov following the unprovoked Israeli attack on Iran, found 60% of Americans do not want Trump to enter the newest conflict in the Middle East, compared to just 16% of voters who want Washington to aid Tel Aviv’s military operation.
Even among Americans who voted for Trump in 2024, only 19% support entering the conflict. A majority of Republicans said they want Washington to stay out of the war.
While the US has not conducted direct strikes on Iran yet, Washington has provided substantial support to Tel Aviv’s war machine. The US has given Israel the arms and intelligence Tel Aviv needed to launch its bombing campaign.
Additionally, Israeli officials say Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu worked together privately to convince Tehran that a deal was possible and no attack was imminent.
The YouGov poll also found that three in five Americans believe Trump should engage the Iranians in talks to end the war. Only 18% of voters are opposed to negotiations with the Islamic Republic.
However, talks between Washington and Tehran appear increasingly unlikely. On Tuesday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran must agree to an “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” to end the war.
Overall, Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Middle East by a slight margin. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they approve of Trump’s Iran policy, against 44% who disapprove.
The rise of Abu Shabab: Mapping the Gaza militia armed by Israel
By Muhammad Shehada | The New Arab | June 10, 2025
A political earthquake hit Israel last week when former Defence Minister Avigdor Liberman revealed that “the Israeli government is giving weapons to a group of criminals and felons, identified with Islamic State [in Gaza], at the direction of the prime minister”.
Netanyahu has since admitted that Israel had been “running” proxy militias in Gaza, but tried to put a positive spin on it, claiming that such a move aims to challenge Hamas’s rule.
But branding these gangs as potential rivals to Hamas masks the very goal of why Israel created them in the first place. Around 300 untrained thieves, drug dealers, criminals, and convicted murderers cannot overpower Hamas’s estimated 30,000 militants.
Their actual role has more to do with advancing Israel’s genocide, starvation, and ethnic cleansing in Gaza while creating plausible deniability.
Furthermore, recent evidence indicates that Israel may have been collaborating with some of these Islamic State-linked elements even before 7 October.
Abu Shabab: A front for an Israeli proxy?
The most prominent gang leader in Gaza is Yasser Abu Shabab. His name first appeared in August 2024 on Hamas-linked social media groups as the figure responsible for looting the vast majority of humanitarian aid and reselling it on the black market for astronomical prices.
A senior security source told The New Arab that Abu Shabab’s gang had been active for months before then.
Local authorities knew Abu Shabab well. He was serving a long sentence in prison for the possession of large quantities of drugs, according to three knowledgeable sources. He was one of many inmates who escaped under the cover of Israel’s war on Gaza in October 2023.
Some other inmates were released on parole when Israel began bombing government facilities. Israeli newspapers like Maariv and Yediot Ahronot confirmed Abu Shabab’s criminal history through people close to him, and even added that he had links to the Islamic State (IS) through smuggling drugs from Sinai into Gaza.
Police in Gaza were perplexed when he emerged as a top gang leader. The security source told The New Arab that Abu Shabab is 35 years old, thin, weak, short (around 150cm in height), uncharismatic, illiterate, has strabismus in one eye, and has never received military training.
To them, he didn’t seem like someone with the leadership skills necessary to form a group of 300 armed militants, steal truckloads of aid, and store it under the radar.
Local authorities quickly decided that Abu Shabab was merely a front for an Israeli astroturfing campaign to maintain its policy of starvation in Gaza after the international community pressured Netanyahu to ease his total siege and allow a trickle of aid into the enclave.
What made this clear, according to them, is how Israeli drones bombed emergency committee volunteers or police officers every time they came close to thwarting a looting attempt by that gang in particular.
By late September 2024, Abu Shabab was talked about in Gaza as an Israeli-backed collaborator, not just a gang leader. That is when Hamas militants attempted to ambush him, firing around 90 bullets at a vehicle they thought belonged to Abu Shabab.
The vehicle, however, was identical to the one used by Islam Hijazi, the program officer of a US charity called Heal Palestine. She was tragically killed in the incident.
Two months later, Abu Shabab received widespread media attention after he burned a fuel truck and completely shut down the route used by aid convoys to retaliate against another Hamas ambush that killed his brother Fathi and 21 other members of his gang.
Soon after, the Washington Post revealed that the UN had named Abu Shabab in an internal memo as the main figure behind aid looting under “passive or active IDF protection”. This left little room for doubt that Abu Shabab’s gang was a tool for Israel to maintain starvation while externalising blame.
Mapping gang leaders: IS, ex-PA intel officers, and murderers
Abu Shabab’s deputy is thought to be Ghassan al-Dahini, 38, reportedly a former lieutenant in the Palestinian Authority (PA). Dahini is the one running the gang’s operations on the ground and actively trying to recruit new members, along with Saddam Abu Zakkar, per local authorities. His Facebook profile displays Israeli hostage emojis.
Another senior Palestinian security source told The New Arab that Dahini was a member of the “Army of Islam”, the extremist group responsible for kidnapping journalist Alan Johnston in 2007.
The group pledged allegiance to IS in 2015. Ghassan’s brother, Mohammed, died in prison after he was detained on drug-related offences, and Ghassan himself was imprisoned twice in March 2020 and November 2022, per the source. He added that “the Army of Islam relied on Dahini for the Sinai smuggling routes”.
On Sunday, Dahini posted a video of himself in military gear in Eastern Rafah close to Israel’s perimeter fence. He was standing next to a white pickup truck with a UAE license plate from Sharjah and firing a brand-new Serbian Zastava rifle.
Another prominent gang leader in Rafah is Shadi Soufi, a convicted murderer who was awaiting a death sentence before 7 October for killing a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) leader. Like Yasser, he also escaped prison during the war and was named by humanitarian organisations as responsible for looting aid under Israeli protection in Rafah.
Soufi, al-Dahini, and Abu Shabab are from the same Bedouin Tarabin clan that stretches across Rafah, Israel’s Negev desert, Egypt’s Sinai, and Jordan. Abu Shabab’s family recently disowned him for collaborating with Israel and said they will go after him to hold him accountable.
Another prominent leader of the Abu Shabab gang is Essam Soliman Nabahin, 35, a convicted murderer and IS member. He was implicated in a series of bombings against Hamas in 2015 by extremist Salafist groups and escaped to Sinai to formally join IS’s ranks. He caught the attention of Egyptian media in 2017 after taking part in attacks against the Egyptian army.
Nabahin’s name resurfaced in June 2023 when the police raided a house in central Gaza where he was hiding. He killed a police officer and was convicted in a military court before his escape in the early days of the war.
Israel says Nabahin was previously “recorded launching rockets into Israel without coordination with Hamas”.
Local authorities in Gaza have long suspected that IS-linked individuals like Nabahin were being pushed by Israel’s Shin Bet to fire one or two primitive projectiles sporadically to give Israel a pretext to strike Gaza and bomb specific targets. Hence, the police detained those militants repeatedly.
A senior Palestinian security source told The New Arab that authorities in Gaza caught a collaborator in 2018 who directed such occasional rocket attacks to give Israel cover for military action in Gaza.
Other members of the gang include multiple known drug dealers and convicted murderers.
How is Israel helping them?
Israel’s government has admitted it provided weapons to these gangs, mostly rifles and other light weaponry, in addition to money and equipment. Footage posted by Abu Shabab’s gang showed them driving in white pickup trucks with machineguns on top that looked virtually identical to those of Hamas.
In addition, Israel provides these gangs with safe refuge in areas fully depopulated by the Israeli military, like Rafah, and declared “extermination zones”, where any Palestinian entering would be killed on the spot. They are also provided with logistical support, protection, and even access to Israeli territory.
A Palestinian journalist documented one case of a gang member crossing into Israel, which could explain how those gangs disappeared completely during the ceasefire last January.
On the ground, the Abu Shabab gang has established warehouses operated with forklifts where they store looted aid. They have also established a military complex, according to the UN, which said the Israeli army would force aid convoys to drive through the areas where the gangs had positioned their militants and put up checkpoints to loot trucks.
And where the Israeli military goes, so do the gangs. After Israel issued forcible expulsion orders for Khan Younis and raided the European hospital and its surrounding area, Abu Shabab moved into the ‘Jarghoun’ villa in that very same area, per security sources.
On Tuesday, Israeli news channel i24 reported that Israel had launched airstrikes to protect the gang after it was attacked by Hamas militants in southern Gaza. The strikes killed four Hamas members.
What role do the gangs play on Israel’s behalf?
The Israeli-backed gangs in Gaza have become an unofficial arm of the Israeli military. For instance, whenever Israel gets pressured to allow food into Gaza, it immediately unleashes the gangs to maintain their use of starvation as a weapon of war, while blaming it on Hamas.
Experts believe Israel is using starvation as a tool for genocide by imposing conditions on a group “calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part”. Prolonged starvation inflicts permanent mental and physical damage, particularly on children.
Israel has also been using these gangs to orchestrate chaos and engineer societal collapse through attacks on markets, shops, private businesses, homes, warehouses, soup kitchens, and other places vital to maintaining the population’s survival.
For instance, in early May 2025, a gang attacked a communal kitchen in Gaza. As soon as volunteers arrived to stop the looting, Israel bombed it and killed six volunteers, which implies it was a coordinated attack.
The Israeli army also sends the gangs on reconnaissance and surveillance missions in dangerous areas. Last month, Hamas released footage of an ambush it carried out against armed men in Rafah whom it thought were undercover Israeli troops. They turned out to be Abu Shabab militants.
Israel also uses the gangs to infiltrate Palestinian society and gather intelligence, as well as to kidnap and interrogate Palestinians by luring them with the promise of food, as documented by Palestinian journalist Younis Tirawi.
Israel is using proxy gangs for the final phase of the war
The most concerning use of these gangs, however, is Israel’s recently announced plan to push Gazans into camps in Rafah on Egypt’s borders to depopulate and destroy “everything that remains” of the rest of the enclave. This is a precursor to Israel’s declared goal of the mass expulsion of Palestinians into Egypt and other countries.
The Abu Shabab gang recently announced establishing an encampment area in eastern Rafah near the Egyptian borders and is using the very aid they have been systematically looting to lure starved Gazans into moving there.
This announcement was preceded by a clear rebranding psyop, where the same gang responsible for looting aid suddenly and shamelessly declared itself as a new “security force” that aims to “protect aid from looting”. They have since emerged in brand-new military and police uniforms in the Israeli-designated buffer zone in Rafah, where no Palestinians are allowed to enter.
Remarkably, Israel has allowed these gang members to wear Palestinian flags and insignia on their uniforms, while at the same time refusing to let the Palestinian Authority’s staff at the Rafah border crossing wear any such symbols.
In other words, Israel is using these gangs as a front. The Israeli army knows that if it orders Gazans to come to camps in eastern Rafah, people will immediately know it’s a trap for mass expulsion. But if a uniformed Palestinian force with good PR on social media makes such a demand, some people might fall for the trap.
Israel has used this same proxy tactic in Lebanon against Palestinians in 1982, where the Israeli military bolstered the South Lebanon Army (SLA) and used it and other militias to commit the Sabra and Shatila massacre, which saw 3,500 Palestinians killed.
Those collaborators collapsed after the Israeli army’s withdrawal from Southern Lebanon, as their leaders surrendered or fled to Israel. The same fate awaits these new Israeli-backed gangs once the Gaza genocide comes to an end.
Muhammad Shehada is a Palestinian writer and analyst from Gaza and the EU Affairs Manager at Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor.
Follow him on Twitter: @muhammadshehad2
US aerial tankers headed to Middle East – media
RT | June 16, 2025
The US has reportedly deployed more than 30 aerial refueling tankers across the Atlantic toward the Middle East, Military Watch Magazine reported on Monday. The outlet has described the buildup as “unprecedented,” claiming it could suggest broader US involvement in the ongoing Israeli-Iranian war.
West Jerusalem and Tehran have entered the fourth day of open hostilities. Last Thursday, Israeli forces launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, killing senior military officials and scientists and prompting retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli cities such as Tel Aviv and Haifa.
The US has expressed support for the Israeli strikes, with President Donald Trump calling them “excellent.” He has also warned that Washington could become directly involved in the conflict if American interests are threatened but has yet to announce any plans to involve US forces.
However, according to flight tracking data, the US has already started deploying KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refueling tankers to the Middle East. Military Watch Magazine has suggested that the aircraft may be intended to support Israeli Air Force operations or refuel US fighters and bombers if Washington expands its role in the conflict.
The report also claims that tankers from other Western countries have participated in Israeli aerial refueling efforts, while the US is believed to have provided intelligence, satellite targeting data, and missile defense support.
On Sunday, Axios reported that Israeli officials had asked the US to directly take part in the military operation, specifically requesting assistance in striking Iran’s Fordow enrichment facility. However, US officials cited by the outlet said the request was declined, with one stating that the Trump administration is not considering any such involvement.
Nevertheless, Tehran has claimed that Washington’s support for West Jerusalem has made the US complicit in Israel’s aggression against Iran. Sources within the Iranian military have also reportedly indicated that Tehran’s response to Israeli strikes would “spread to all areas occupied by this [Israeli] regime and related US bases in the region in the coming days.”
In response, Trump has warned that any Iranian attack on US forces would trigger a military response, writing on his Truth Social platform that “if we are attacked in any way, shape, or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the US Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before.” He also insisted that the US “had nothing to do with the attack on Iran” and called on Tehran to return to negotiations.
Middle East in Crisis – 2
Netanyahu’s war on Iran has no future
By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | June 16, 2025
An unnoticed undercurrent of the Israel-Iran war is that three Christian nations in Europe — UK, France and Germany — have joined the fray with alacrity on the side of Israel.
Strange, isn’t it, that these European countries comprising the so-called E-3 have a well-established exclusive path of dialogue with Iran but are joining Israel’s warpath? It’s a Crusade, stupid!
The three ‘Crusader nations’ share Israel’s obsession to check the rise of a Muslim nation as an emerging power in the Middle East that could radically transform its geopolitical alignments. Simply put, destroying the Islamic regime in Iran is the real objective of Israel’s war — and of the three Christian nations from Europe.
Reportedly, Israeli fighter jets which attacked Iran used the British air base in Cyprus; British refuelling planes are on deployment in Syrian-Iraqi airspace for use of Israeli fighter jets; French president Emmanuel Macron, as defender of Roman Catholicism openly vows that he will act to prevent Israel’s defeat; Germany, the fountainhead of Protestantism, has also similarly positioned itself behind Israel.
However, on the other hand, what emerges from the hour-long phone conversation between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday is that they will work together to advance the path of dialogue with Iran, the current conflict situation notwithstanding. The Kremlin readout stresses that Putin forcefully denounced the Israeli aggression.
Such a line-up of the principal actors signals that Israel’s best bet lies in killing the war itself as a strategic error and create a ‘new normal’? But will Tehran allow Netanyahu to get away with murder? That’s the million dollar question. Putin will have to use all his persuasive power during the planned visit to Iran — ie., if it still goes ahead.
The Israeli thinking behind its assassination of the IRGC leadership and military commanders stemmed out of the foolish miscalculation that Tehran lacks a political will to resist aggression. The Israeli objective is on the one hand to create conditions for a regime change in Iran and on the other hand to derail any form of US-Iran constructive engagement.
All through, terror has been the chosen weapon for Israel and the western powers to undermine and weaken Iran. But a point has been reached where a containment of Iran is no longer feasible. Logically, Iran’s neighbours in the Muslim world should have rallied in support of Iran but that’s too much to expect, given their limited sovereignty to act independently.
Nonetheless, Iran will not capitulate. Iran’s sense of national pride and honour as a civilisation state will prompt it to circle the wagons and wage a protracted war until victory. From the early days of the revolution, the Islamic republic which was founded on the principles of justice and resistance on the bedrock of nationalism and independence, got attracted to Mao’s concept of ‘protracted people’s war’ to keep predator nations at bay. That strategy paid off during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988).
Saddam Hussein too, like Netanyahu, miscalculated that Iran was a hopelessly weakened nation in the civil war conditions with its economy in virtual collapse, army in disarray, state formation yet to crystallise, and with no allies in the region to lend a helping hand. But as it turned out, Iran fought an 8-year war defiantly to a stalemate, undeterred by the lavish support extended to Saddam by the Western powers and their regional allies.
The US even equipped Saddam’s army with chemical weapons to stop the human-wave–attack tactics of Iranian fighters, but of no avail — although, an estimated quarter million Iranians sacrificed their lives.
At some point, in a very near future, Israel will also meet the fate of Saddam, having miscalculated Iran’s grit to resist. Netanyahu also estimated that Iran is a much weakened country compared to last year due to the setbacks taken by the Axis of Resistance. Such naïveté underestimates the potency of resistance at the very core of Shi’ism.
Last week, the resistance forces that were supposedly vanquished from the face of the earth regrouped and began firing missiles at Israel — from Syria, of all places! On May 4, Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv hitting the perimeter of the main terminal of Ben Gurion Airport! Reports suggest that Hezbollah has restored its supply routes from Iran.
What Israel fails to grasp is that resistance movements do not die if their raison d’être remains. Israel is, in reality, in very deep crisis fighting on multiple fronts amidst a cascading domestic political crisis and an economy that requires drip feeding by Washington.
As the US’s capacity to influence events in the Middle East keeps diminishing, Israel’s unviability as a nation propped by the Jewish Lobby in the Beltway appears sharper in focus. Already, there is resentment within the US about bankrolling Israel and fighting its wars.
On the contrary, the rise of Iran is inevitable — with a population base 10 times bigger than Israel’s, vast mineral resources, a self-sufficient agricultural sector and broad-based industry, innovative progress in technology, big domestic market, highly strategic location and trained manpower.
Iran’s stamina is of a long distance runner, as Iran-Iraq war showed, whereas, Israel’s forte is as sprinter on a 100 metre track. Make no mistake, Israel, a small country with a population of 8 million people will get hollowed out in a protracted war.
In the current scenario, what goes against Israel critically is that while President Donald Trump tried and failed to stop Netanyahu on the warpath, he is not going to deploy American forces to fight Israel’s war.
Trump has an evangelical base in US politics and is on friendly terms with wealthy Jewish donors, but has nothing in common with the Crusader nations of the Old World — be it on Ukraine or Iran. In both cases, actually, he tends to view the paradigm through the America First prism where he sees immense potential to generate wealth through business links with Russia or Iran.
Besides, Trump is far too smart a politician to risk the future of his MAGA movement whose core tenet is the total rejection of all interventionist ‘forever wars’. Trump knows only too well that American public opinion is staunchly opposed to Middle Eastern wars.
The replacement of Mike Waltz as NSA on May 1 (a known Israeli proxy who found himself in the top echelons of Trump administration) and the subsequent purge of the entire pack of ‘Iran hawks’ in the National Security staff under him, signalled that Trump is wary of Netanyahu’s diabolical plots to derail his negotiations with Iran through back channels. (here and here)
During their phone conversation on Saturday, according to the Kremlin readout, Trump and Putin agreed to prioritise the “negotiating track in Iran’s nuclear programme… Trump noted, the team of US negotiators is ready for resuming work with Iranian representatives.” Clearly, a military confrontation with Iran does not figure in Trump’s calculus.
That being the case, Netanyahu’s bombastic rhetoric apart, Israel’s best interests lie in ending this futile war in the quickest way possible. Conceivably, that is also the preference of the IDF. A protracted war on its own steam with a clutch of crusader nations in tow as cheer leaders is not something that can save Israel from destruction.
Curiously, Trump in his latest Truth Social post on Sunday after the conversation with Putin advised Israel “to make a deal” with Iran! Does that fit into Netanyahu’s war mongering? And Trump went on to burnish his own credentials as a peacemaker president!
Trump concluded predicting that “we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran!” Succinctly put, Trump has no intentions whatsoever to risk American lives by fighting Netanyahu’s wars.
Obviously, “PEACE, soon” will be Russia and Iran’s preference too, as serious negotiations can be resumed and agreement reached that would herald a US-Iran normalisation and the lifting of American sanctions. But does that suit Netanyahu?
The paradox is, Israel has no future in a protracted war with Iran, but an inconclusive end to this war will pose the high risk for Netanyahu of a cascading demand for a regime change in Israel. Loss of power means loss of parliamentary immunity from prosecution that Netanyahu hitherto enjoyed from corruption charges against him and his family members, and a possible imprisonment.
Read more: Iran Attack: Netanyahu Gambles Big, Rediff.com, June 14, 2025
Soumoud Convoy blocked in Libya en route to break Gaza blockade
Al Mayadeen | June 15, 2025
Pro-Palestinian activists, who were participating in a march aimed at breaking the Israeli blockade on Gaza, were forced to retreat to the Misrata region of western Libya after being blocked by the authorities in the country’s east, according to statements made by organizers on Sunday.
The “Soumoud” convoy, which had been stopped by the eastern authorities, decided to fall back to near Misrata, about 200 kilometres (124 miles) east of Tripoli. Misrata, which is under the control of the UN-recognized Government of National Unity based in Tripoli, stands in contrast to the eastern region of Libya, where military commander Khalifa Haftar holds authority.
The convoy, consisting of more than 1,000 people from Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, and Tunisia, had faced a “military blockade” since Friday at the entrance to Sirte, a region under the control of Haftar.
Organizers reported that the convoy had been placed under what they described as a “systematic siege,” leaving them without access to food, water, or medicine while also facing severely disrupted communications.
The organizers also condemned the arrest of multiple convoy participants, among them at least three bloggers who had been recording the mission’s progress since it set out from Tunisia on June 9.
The Joint Action Coordination Committee for Palestine, the organizing body behind the convoy, called for the urgent release of 13 detained participants still in the custody of eastern Libyan authorities, according to a statement reported by Tunisia’s La Presse newspaper.
The group, in an accompanying video, reiterated its commitment to pushing forward with the mission toward Gaza’s Rafah border crossing with Egypt, emphasizing its goal of breaking the blockade and stopping what it described as the genocide of Palestinians resisting in Gaza.
Israeli Security Minister Israel Katz called on Egyptian authorities on June 11 to prevent the al-Soumoud convoy from reaching the Rafah border crossing, accusing the international pro-Palestine activists of being “jihadists” and warning that their presence could potentially endanger Israeli occupation forces as well as what he referred to as “regional stability.”
Katz argued that the convoy posed a threat to Israeli troops stationed near the border while also warning it could trigger unrest within Egypt and among what he described as “moderate” Arab governments in the region. He further warned that if Egyptian authorities failed to act, the Israeli occupation forces would take what they deemed “necessary measures” to stop the convoy’s advance toward Gaza.
