Iran submits response to US plan, sets terms for war’s end: Tasnim
Al Mayadeen | March 26, 2026
An informed source told Tasnim on Thursday that Iran has delivered its response to a 15-point proposal put forward by the United States, transmitting its position through intermediaries on Wednesday night. Tehran is now awaiting a reply.
According to the source, Iran’s response sets out a series of conditions tied to any potential end to the war. These include an immediate halt to assassination operations, the establishment of binding guarantees to prevent a renewed aggression, and the provision of clearly defined compensation and reparations. The response also calls for a comprehensive cessation of hostilities across all fronts, extending to all resistance groups involved in the confrontation throughout the region.
The source further stressed that Iran considers its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz to be a natural and legal right that will remain in place. This control, the source indicated, is viewed as a mechanism to ensure the implementation of any commitments made by the other side and must be formally acknowledged.
These positions, the source added, are separate from the demands previously raised during the second round of nuclear negotiations held in Geneva shortly before the US-Israeli war that began in February.
The source also cast doubt on Washington’s stated intentions regarding negotiations, describing them as part of a “third deception” effort. According to the source, the United States is pursuing multiple objectives under the cover of diplomacy: presenting a peaceful image to the international community, maintaining lower global oil prices, and gaining time to prepare for further military aggressions, including a potential ground operation in southern Iran.
Reflecting on previous engagements, the source said Iran now holds “complete doubts” about the United States’ willingness to negotiate in good faith. The source argued that both during the 12-day war in June 2025 and the current war, the United States initiated hostilities while talks were ongoing, suggesting that renewed diplomatic efforts may similarly serve as a pretext for further escalation. Analysts suggest that there is no need to call on Iran to admit a certain reality, if, as suggested, it was already a reality in the first place.
War exposes US limits
Iran’s response comes as the war on the country enters its fourth week, after the United States and “Israel” launched coordinated attacks targeting the country’s leadership, civilian infrastructure, and military capabilities, prompting sustained Iranian retaliatory operations across the region.
The consequences of this aggression have extended far beyond the battlefield. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery through which roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies pass, have not only sent shockwaves through energy markets but also exposed the limits of US power in the region.
Despite its military presence, Washington has struggled to secure a chokepoint central to the global economy following its aggression, while Iran has shown it can impose costs that reverberate through oil prices, inflation, financial markets, and allied capitals, undermining the image of a US-led order able to guarantee stability.
Amid these developments, the United States has been working at countering Iran’s retaliation following the aggression and shaping the war’s outcome on terms favorable to Washington to no avail.
Tehran has categorically rejected negotiating under such conditions. Iranian officials say recent US proposals, including a reported multi-point plan conveyed through intermediaries, are unrealistic and designed to force strategic concessions while the war continues.
According to Tehran officials, Washington and “Israel”, having initiated the aggression, have no standing to dictate its conclusion. Authorities insist the war will end only on Iran’s terms, including a full cessation of aggression, guarantees against renewed attacks, and recognition of Iran’s sovereignty.
Trump threatens Iran
On Wednesday, the White House openly threatened further escalation against Iran, warning that the US is prepared to intensify its attacks unless Tehran accepts Washington’s terms.
“The President’s preference is always peace. There does not need to be any more death and destruction. But if Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment, if they fail to understand that they have been defeated militarily … President Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before,” Leavitt told reporters.
Iran’s continued retaliatory strikes, however, contradicts Washington’s claim of “defeat,” with officials announcing the 82nd wave of retaliatory strikes targeting US and Israeli assets across the region, thus indicating that Tehran’s operational capacity remains intact.
Zelensky unnecessarily involves Ukraine in the Middle East crisis
By Ahmed Adel | March 26, 2026
Unlike European countries and other NATO allies staying out of the Middle East conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, Ukraine—already short on troops and military strength—has sent 201 drone specialists to support the war effort against the Islamic Republic. This decision by the Kiev regime comes despite the difficulties Ukraine faces in the conflict against Russia on various tactical fronts and ends up causing embarrassment between the European bloc and the US, which has received little practical support from Western allies in its war effort against Iran.
It also raises questions about how a country reliant on European funding, which even campaigns to recruit foreigners due to a shortage of personnel, can become involved in a distant conflict. This demonstrates that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has no interest in ending the conflict in his own country and aims to win favor with the US by becoming entangled in the Persian Gulf quagmire, so the war in Eastern Europe can continue.
The limited European involvement in the war against Iran reveals a divide in the West over political views and cooperation, as well as the fact that allied ties are weaker than they seem. This trend toward political and strategic distancing within the Western bloc has been ongoing for quite some time, including the US questioning the link between European spending and NATO, and even the European Union stepping back in the Ukraine peace talks. As a result, the division highlights notable differences in perceptions.
Zelensky’s attitude is even more internally contradictory because Ukraine cannot sustain its own troops, and by becoming involved in the Middle Eastern conflict and decentralizing military efforts, more internal obstacles will arise. The Ukrainian president’s actions appear populist since Ukraine lacks enough military resources and is instead using what little it has to support the US and Israel in a conflict where it has no direct stake.
Additionally, this raises questions about whether Ukrainians can currently be involved in the Middle East, given that they are facing a serious internal crisis.
Ukrainian involvement in the US-Israeli operation against Tehran could spark domestic unrest, including growing opposition to Zelensky across different parts of society and among various local political groups. Ukrainians do not want their men dying thousands of kilometres away from home.
Aside from the possibility of reduced military aid to Ukraine, this could leave the population feeling more exhausted about the options for continuing the conflict with Russia. At the same time, there is already a disconnect between the military and Zelensky.
Despite getting more aid from Europe, the Ukrainians are trying to negotiate for more support from the US by demonstrating their loyalty. This marks a historic moment in the relationship between Washington and Kiev.
Historically, since gaining independence, Ukraine has consistently allied itself with the US in various conflicts that emerged after the 1990s, such as in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the current Gulf conflict, there is a similar pattern: right now, Zelensky is attempting to build political capital with the Trump administration by demonstrating support, but in reality, Kiev has little to gain.
Earlier this month, just days into the war with Iran, Western media reported that Russia provided Iran with information that could help it strike American targets, with one US official telling MS NOW, “Russia is providing intelligence help to Iran.”
In a separate article published on March 23, MS NOW reported that “Ukraine’s military intelligence has ‘irrefutable’ evidence that Russia has provided intelligence to the Iranian regime, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on X today. ‘Russia is using its own signals intelligence and electronic intelligence capabilities, as well as part of the data obtained through cooperation with partners in the Middle East,’ Zelensky said, citing a report from Ukrainian Chief of Defense Intelligence Oleh Ivashchenko.”
The outlet also highlighted that “Ukraine has a vested interest in convincing the United States that Russia is playing a direct role in helping Iran during the war,” believing this would prompt the White House to take a closer look at the evidence from Kiev. However, as the article says, it appears that US President Donald Trump does not care.
It is recalled that in an interview with Fox News earlier this month, Trump said Russia “might be” assisting Iran, but added that the US has assisted Ukraine.
“You know, it’s like, hey, they do it and we do it, in all fairness,” Trump said. “They do it and we do it.”
Days later, he went further, telling the Financial Times, in reference to Russia, “It’s hard to say, ‘You’re targeting us, but we’ve been helping Ukraine.’”
Although Zelensky may have “irrefutable” military intelligence that Russia is assisting Iran, the evidence will not have the impact he hopes it will to rally American support behind Ukraine again, just as deploying drone specialists to assist in the war against Iran will not.
Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
Former Head Of MI6 Admits That The U.S. And Israel Are Losing The Iran War
The Dissident | March 25, 2026
In an interview with the Economist, Alex Younger, the head of Britain’s MI6 from 2014 to 2020, admitted that Iran has the upper hand against the U.S. and Israel.
When asked, “Who has the upper hand right now, who is in a stronger position?”, Younger replied, “Iran”.
He went on to say “The reality is that the US underestimated the task and I think, as of about two weeks ago, lost the initiative to Iran”.
He added, “The Iranian regime has been more resilient than I think anyone would have expected. They took some good decisions actually as early as last June about dispersing their military capability and delegating the authority for the use of those weapons which has given them significant extra resilience against this incredibly powerful air campaign.”
Younger went on to say, Iran has “embarked on what’s technically called horizontal escalation i.e., firing rockets at anybody within range,” adding that this has “been a very good way of putting indirect price on the US” and has “sort of worked”.
He also said that Iran, “understood the significance of the energy war and held the Strait (of Hormuz) at threat,” which he noted, “globalized the conflict in a way that gives them some weapons.”
He also added that Iran is fighting “a war of existence” while the U.S. is fighting “a war of choice,” noting that this “imbues them (Iran) with more staying power than their US counterparts and they know that now and I think that really is giving them the whip hand”.
Along with this he noted that, “Even with just 10% of its initial drone stocks”, Iran can, “hold the straits at threat because these are not military people, it’s not a military audience you have to satisfy, it is people who own oil tankers and captains of oil tankers and that really does give them the whip hand.”
He concluded that “the options for the US and Israel are pretty limited and not great”.
Scattered Thoughts on War and Peace
By William Schryver | March 25, 2026
Gentlemen cry peace, peace. But there is no peace. The war has barely begun.
Though its position is untenable, the empire cannot slink away now.
As things stand, Iran et al. have won an overwhelming strategic victory. One that cannot be undone.
And everyone that matters in the world knows this to be true.
That said, a great many people have persuaded themselves that it is the mighty United States military that has achieved an overwhelming victory, and that the Iranians are an utterly “obliterated” foe.
And yet the Iranian missiles and drones keep their schedule, with only a fraction of the opposition they encountered in early March.
Israel — that vulnerable speck of a country — is getting pounded. Hard.
US/Israel air defenses have been reduced to a skeleton shambles.
The impressive Iranian defeat of US/Israeli radar capabilities is arguably the single most notable development so far in this war.
Meanwhile, the count of American manned aircraft downed by “technical problems” continues to grow, and Iran is shooting down more cruise missiles than they did early on.
Speaking of skeleton shambles, all the US bases in the region have been systematically degraded — some more than most.
The US Fifth Fleet has been effectively evicted from the Persian Gulf, and they won’t be coming back.
The USS Poopy Gerry, flagship of the US Navy, has now managed to limp back to Souda Bay to tally the damages, and determine whether or not she can make it all the way back to Norfolk without some tug boats standing by.
Watch and see: they’ll boldly claim they will have her “ready for action” in 18 months or so. But they won’t. And sometime in about 2030, an obscure Pentagon press release will announce that the star-crossed USS Gerald R. Ford, CVN-78, will be decommissioned, purchased by Baron Trump, and turned into a dockside casino.
Anyway, the Americans are convinced the Iranians are an easy mark to fall yet again for the “negotiation sneak attack” gambit.
I think it’s more likely the Iranians are worried the Americans will “chicken out” of their proclaimed intention to use “boots on the ground” to subdue Iran and achieve full control over the Strait of Hormuz.
I think the Iranians would like nothing more than for the US military to attempt a 10k soldier amphibious / airborne attack somewhere along the Iranian coastline — probably in conjunction with a half-dozen special forces raids at various “high-value” targets.
In any case, as two amphibious ready groups (4400 Marines) and an 82nd Airborne brigade combat team (3000 light infantry) continue to advance on the theater of battle, Washington is apparently going to send the mythically competent erstwhile invisible Vice President, the redoubtable young Achilles, JD Vance.
My sense is that Vance’s mission is an inherently disingenuous token gesture.
Vance will state the inherently unacceptable American terms; the Iranians will state theirs. Both sides will glare menacingly at each other, and fly back home.
The Iranians will continue to control Hormuz and launch drones and missiles throughout the region.
US troops will arrive on the scene, and barring some unlikely epiphany of reason, the Pentagon will launch an amphibious / airborne attack that will end in blood and ashes.
At least this is the trajectory of events as I currently perceive them to be.
Things could still go from bad to worse.
Iran Threatens to Close Red Sea to Shipping in Response to Invasion
By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | March 25, 2026
If the US invades Iran, Tehran will act through its allies in Yemen to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
“If the enemy wants to take action on land in the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our lands or to inflict costs on Iran with naval movements in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman,” an Iranian military official told the semi-official Tasnim News Agency. “We will open other fronts for them as a surprise so that their action will not only be of no benefit to them but will also double their costs.”
“The Bab al-Mandab Strait is considered one of the world’s strategic straits, and Iran has both the will and the ability to create a completely credible threat against it.” The official continued, “Therefore, if the Americans want to think of a solution for the Strait of Hormuz with stupid measures, they should be careful not to add another strait to their problems and predicaments.”
Northern Yemen is controlled by Ansar Allah, who are allied with Iran. So far, Sanaa has not intervened in the war that is raging across the Middle East.
Ansar Allah has proven the military capability to close the Red Sea to shipping and also to fight the American military. In response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza, Sanaa closed the Bab al-Mandab Strait to US and Israeli-linked shipping.
Both Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump attempted to break the blockade with massive bombing campaigns in Yemen. However, Ansar Allad was able to maintain the blockade while attacking Israel and US warships in the region with missiles and drones.
If Ansar Allah elects to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, it will add to the global economic crisis that was caused by the US and Israeli war against Iran. Since the surprise attack by the US and Israel on February 28, Tehran has significantly limited shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranian threat comes as the US is moving forces to the Middle East that could be involved in ground operations inside Iran.
Iran in excellent position to prevail in war with US, Israel: John Mearsheimer
Press TV – March 25,2026
Senior political scientist John Mearsheimer says Iran has a good chance of dominating the ongoing war with the United States and Israel given the way the Islamic Republic controls the economic repercussions of the conflict.
Speaking to Piers Morgan Uncensored, Mearsheimer said the US and Israel failed to achieve their objectives in the aggression on Iran, which was to decapitate the government and force Iranians to submit to their demands in the first two or three days of the war.
He said, however, that the war has continued for nearly a month and the Iranians are now in a better position to dictate their demands since they control the flow of oil and other energy products from the Persian Gulf to other parts of the world.
“What’s happened here is that we did not achieve a quick and decisive victory and we are now in a long war, a war of attrition, and that’s a war that the Iranians prepared for and that’s a war that the Iranians are in an excellent position to prevail in,” Mearsheimer said.
He said if the United States decides to further escalate the aggression, it could face devastating responses from Iran that affect not only regional countries and American bases they host but also the entire international economy.
“They have the ability to go up the escalation ladder and tank the international economy.”
Donald Trump, the president of the United States, said on March 24 that he was considering holding talks with Iran to end the ongoing confrontation which many believe has put him in a very precarious position.
That comes as he has repeatedly claimed victory since launching the joint aggression with Israel against Iran on February 28.
Iran has yet to accept the US request for negotiations as authorities have indicated that the country will continue its reprisal attacks on US and Israeli positions while controlling the flow of oil in the Persian Gulf to ultimately punish the aggressors.
Iran warns US: Do not call your retreat an agreement
Press TV – March 25, 2026
Spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari, says the strategic power that the enemy boasted about has “turned into a strategic defeat.”
“If the self-proclaimed superpower of the world could have escaped this predicament, it would have done so by now. Do not call your defeat an agreement,” he said on Wednesday.
This comes as US President Donald Trump backed away from his 48-hour ultimatum to strike Iran’s power plants after the Islamic Republic warned that all energy and power installations in the region would be targeted in retaliation.
Trump claimed in a post on his Truth Social media platform that the US and Iran have had “very good and constructive conversations over the past two days regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in [West Asia].”
A source familiar with internal discussions in Tehran said Monday that there has been no official contact between Tehran and Washington.
“The era of your promises is over. Today, there are only two fronts in the world: truth and falsehood. And every freedom-seeking pursuer of truth will not be deceived by your media waves,” Zolfaqari said.
The spokesman further questioned the extent of internal divisions among enemies, asking sarcastically, “Has the level of your infighting reached the point of negotiating with yourselves?”
Zolfaqari also delivered a stark assessment of regional economic prospects, asserting that neither past levels of US investments in the region nor previous energy and oil prices would return.
“Stability in the region is ensured by the powerful hand of our armed forces,” the spokesman said. “Stability through [our] power.”
He also made clear that no previous state of affairs would return unless “the very thought of taking [military] action against the Iranian nation is completely erased from your vile minds.”
“Our first and last word from day one has been, is, and will be: someone like us will not come to terms with someone like you—not now, and not ever,” he further said.
Neighbors first – Moscow signals shift in energy strategy
RT | March 25, 2026
Russia plans to prioritize energy exports to neighboring countries deemed less exposed to global disruptions, Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev has said.
Recent US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s response have shaken global oil and liquefied natural gas markets, disrupting supplies from the Persian Gulf and casting uncertainty over future production.
”The entire world will have to reevaluate supply chains and reassess risks,” Tsivilev told reporters on Wednesday. While Russia’s own exports have not been directly impacted by the Middle East crisis, the country will still adjust its strategy, he added.
“We will prioritize energy deliveries to our closest neighbors, with whom we share land borders and face fewer risks,” the minister said. “We will also reconsider the logistics of oil transportation.”
Shift away from ‘unreliable’ EU
Russia has long favored stable, long-term energy contracts, particularly through pipeline infrastructure, which historically underpinned its gas exports to Western Europe – even during the Cold War.
The European Union, however, has pushed for spot-market pricing, arguing that flexibility outweighs the risks of volatility. This disagreement contributed to tensions even before the bloc declared it would phase out Russian oil and gas imports following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.
Moscow has since labeled European buyers as unreliable and has been redirecting its long-term energy strategy toward Asian partners, especially neighboring China.
Bad timing for snubbing Russian oil
Western countries backing Kiev have sought to curb Russia’s energy revenues, including through measures such as a price cap on its oil exports. Moscow has responded by rerouting shipments via what critics have claimed is a ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers.
Ukraine has also targeted Russian oil and gas infrastructure and vessels suspected of carrying Russian hydrocarbons, including in international waters – which Moscow calls Western-enabled piracy.
The energy price shock caused by the Iran war is prompting neutral nations that previously accommodated the Western agenda to reconsider their approach.
On Tuesday, the Philippines, a traditional US ally, received its first shipment of Russian crude in years, local media reported. Around 100,000 tons of oil were delivered from the port of Kozmino, the export terminal of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline system. The fuel is intended for a refinery in Bataan province.
Embarrassing Pivot: U.S. considers dropping Iran oil sanctions amid war
By Alan MACLEOD | MintPress News | March 22, 2026
Forced into a humiliating U-turn amid a potential global economic meltdown, the Trump administration announced today that it may remove sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that the move to free up 140 million barrels of oil was aimed at preventing China gaining from the situation. “That’s about 10 days to two weeks of supply that the Iranians had been pushing out that would have all gone to China,” he said. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days as we continue this campaign.”
He also noted that the U.S. government was considering a unilateral release of its oil reserves, in order to calm the market, which has seen prices almost double from $53 per barrel in January to $97 today.
“When we go through, as we plan, to unsanction the Iranian oil, that oil will go up to a market price, and it will end up in places other than China. It can flow into Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, India, who have been good actors in this,” Bessent added.
No matter how the Trump administration spins their move, there is no doubt that this represents an embarrassing climb down – one which drew mockery on social media. “This is literally the dumbest war in human history. No hyperbole,” said Aaron Bastani of Novara Media. “Next up: US asks Iran to join anti-Iran coalition,” joked satirist Karl Sharro.
In response to U.S. and Israeli attacks that killed its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 2. The narrow sea passage between the Islamic Republic and Arabia is a major choke point of global trade, through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply flows.
The result has been economic and political pandemonium, which Trump administration officials appeared not to have anticipated. “Iran War Will Lower Energy Prices” ran the headline of a March 12 Wall Street Journal article penned by Peter Navarro, Trump’s Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing.
Trump appears to have believed that his Iran attack could be completed within hours, and with little blowback or fallout. Instead, the Islamic Republic has been able to hit American bases across the region, spread panic throughout the Gulf States, and create shockwaves in the global economy.
In response, Trump demanded his NATO and Asian allies come to his aid, and send their armed forces to the region to forcibly open the strait. Declaring it a “very small endeavor,” he stated:
“I really am demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory because it is the place from where they get their energy. And they should come and they should protect it. You could make the case that maybe we shouldn’t be here at all, because we don’t need it.”
Instead, however, his allies responded with a resounding “no.” “Canada is not participating in the offensive operations of Israel and the United States, and will not, ever,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was equally adamant; “This is not our war. We have not started it. What does Donald Trump expect a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful U.S. Navy cannot do?” he asked.
Most alarmingly for Trump, however, was the reaction from Belgian prime minister, Bart De Wever. In an interview with local newspaper, L’Echo, he stated that Washington’s Iran attacks will force Europe to come to a quick and independent agreement with Russia, in order to avoid financial ruin amid an impending energy crisis.
“We must normalize relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy. That is common sense,” he said, adding, “In private, European leaders agree with me, but no one dares to say it out loud. We must end the conflict in the interest of Europe, without being naïve towards Putin.”
Trump has said that he is not worried that this war will turn into another Vietnam. Yet, with oil prices surging, public resentment mounting, a global economy potentially on the brink, and key allies openly rebelling against his dictates, it is quite possible that this conflict could spiral out of Washington’s control and do similar damage to the American empire.
US has 2 months of rare earths left to replenish weapons amid Iran war: Report
Press TV – March 24, 2026
The United States has only two months’ worth of rare earth elements critically important in the manufacturing of modern weaponry amid its joint aggression with the Israeli regime on Iran, a report says.
Oil Price.com, citing data from South China Morning Post and Reuters, reported that the US involvement in the aggression against Iran, which began on February 28, has already consumed billions of dollars’ worth of missiles and precision-guided weapons, leaving Washington with low inventories of rare earth and other key materials embedded in advanced military systems.
“And it’s the 11th hour for American defense and the entire defense industry, even if it wasn’t in the middle of a war with Iran,” said the report.
The report said the US is deeply dependent on China for the supply of rare earths, leaving Beijing with some fresh leverage over Washington, with roughly three weeks until President Donald Trump’s expected visit to China.
The South China Morning Post has said in an earlier report that the heavy reliance could mean that it is ultimately China that could dictate how long US strikes on Iran can continue.
Rare earth elements are key to manufacturing missile guidance and drone propulsion to radar systems and fighter aircraft electronics.
Those weapons have been critical to US-Israeli air aggression against Iran as it has solely relied on air strikes hitting Iranian targets.
Reports have indicated that the aggression cost more than $10 billion in its first week, as both the US and Israel have been grappling with barrages of missiles and drones fired by Iran at their targets, prompting heavy use of their costly air defense systems.
Strait Of Hormuz closure brings Empire to brink
By Kit Klarenberg | Al Mayadeen | March 24, 2026
Since the criminal Zionist-American war on Iran erupted, the Strait of Hormuz has remained stubbornly closed. Despite Donald Trump’s dire threats, Tehran has brought maritime traffic to a total standstill. The Empire has futilely scrambled to assemble an international coalition to reopen the economically vital waterway ever since, only to be rebuffed. NATO allies have been slammed for making a “foolish mistake”, by refusing to help militarily secure the Strait. In truth, there is no hope it can be forcibly reopened in the foreseeable future.
As Bloomberg reports, while discussions are ongoing among G7 members over potential methods of restarting trade in the Strait, the general consensus among US allies is this can’t happen until hostilities ease, or outright end. Bank of America’s head of research has ominously warned oil prices could rise above $200 per barrel “if disruptions persist for multiple months.” He forecast that if the Strait isn’t reopened within days, its closure could precipitate a global recession.
Tehran imposing a blockade on the Strait was absolutely inevitable, and widely predicted, in the event of war. Even if the conflict ends soon, lasting damage has already been inflicted in many economic spheres, and the effects will be increasingly felt by average citizens in the form of higher prices for essential goods. Global shipping has been thrown into disarray, with major logistics firms cancelling routes in West Asia, producing higher transport and insurance rates, and delays. Again, increased costs will be passed onto consumers.
In all, approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through the Strait annually, accounting for 20% of the world’s total oil supply. Iran’s blockade, coupled with Resistance strikes on refineries throughout the region, will cause lasting chaos in energy markets and impact availability for years to come. Yet, despite a preponderant mainstream focus on the implications of the Strait’s closure for oil and gas, many vital commodities underpinning the operation of major industries worldwide also regularly transit through in substantial quantities.
Their availability and cost is in some cases likewise wildly fluctuating, impacting agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and in turn many fields of everyday life for countless people. And this is only the beginning. Approximately one third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer supply passes through the Strait every year. Before the war, Gulf states ranked highly among international fertilizer suppliers. Up to 43% of global trade in urea – a fundamental component of food production – flowed from the region.
The price of urea can affect production costs by as much as 90%. Now spring is upon us, and planting season has commenced across the West, urea has abruptly become a scarce commodity. Many farmers are already operating without profit, and grave concerns about how long this can be sustained widely proliferate. The prospect of Western sanctions on Russia – a major producer of fertilizer – being lifted to ameliorate the market bedlam grows ever-more likely as time goes on.
Sulfur is a core element of fertilizer production, and pre-war, the Strait provided up to 45% of the world’s supply. As an essay by elite US military academy West Point cautioned on March 13th, the price of sulfur has to date surged 25%, “squeezing one of the most consequential inputs to modern industrial power.” Sulfuric acid is not only vital for basic economic functions, “but also modern warfighting.” In a bitter irony, the Strait of Hormuz’s blockade will cripple Washington’s defence industry – and ability to maintain its conflict with Iran:
“[Sulfur] is needed for everything from the copper in the American electrical grid to the semiconductors in precision-guided munitions… For military planners and strategists, the looming loss of sulfur is a pre-logistical crisis…Chemicals like sulfuric acid sit upstream of copper extraction, battery-material processing, and semiconductor fabrication, meaning they can determine whether the US military can maintain industrial base production of electrical and digital systems needed to sustain the fight as munitions are expended and combat losses mount.”
Copper provides the “clearest example” of why the Strait’s blockade is “a warfighting problem” of historic proportions for the Empire. The widely-used metal is “embedded in the transformers, motors, and communications hardware” enabling US bases “to operate and defense factories to function.” This quickly translates into “a readiness and resilience problem” for the military. It will take over 30,000 kilograms of copper to replace US radar systems destroyed by the Resistance in Bahrain and Qatar alone.
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Lawrence of Cyberia | March 19, 2010
In December 1945 and January 1946, the British Mandate authorities carried out an extensive survey of Palestine, in support of the work of the United Nations Special Committee on Palestine. The results were published in the Survey of Palestine, which has been scanned and made available online by Palestine Remembered; all 1300 pages can be read here.
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- German Expert: Heat Dome Led To Record Temps In Western USA…Warmer In 1934, 1936
- New Study: No Linear Warming Or Glacier Retreat Along Northern Antarctic Peninsula Since 1980s
- An Inconvenient Tree: Uncovered In Alps… Europe Much Warmer Than Today 6000 Years Ago
- New Study Reports A 60% Slowdown In Greenland’s Ice Loss Rate In The Last Decade
- Low Intensity Tornado Wrecks Major Solar Farm, Creating A Potential Toxic Dump
- New Study Finds Warming Saves Lives…Cold Temperatures 12 Times More Deadly Than Excess Heat
- German Science Blog Accuses PIK Climate Institute Of Hallucinating Climate Tipping Points
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