Israeli economy in chaos in anticipation of Iran, Hezbollah responses
Al Mayadeen | August 15, 2024
The Israeli occupation’s anticipation of Hezbollah and Iranian response to Israeli assassinations carried out in late July has pushed the regime into “economic chaos”, Israeli media outlets reported.
The economic affairs commentator for Israeli broadcaster Channel 13 underlined that the past two weeks have “exhausted” the Israeli market. Several economic events were canceled in Israeli-occupied territories, while others were reduced due to the state of anxiety experienced among settlers.
Economic activities have also been affected by the operational measures issued by Israeli authorities, in preparation for retaliatory strikes by Hezbollah and Iran.
The Israeli commentator highlighted the significant losses that affected the Israeli tourism sector, largely linked to international flight cancellations to Israeli-occupied airports. An increasing number of Israeli settlers have been stranded in other countries due to the wide-scale cancelation of flights. The possibilities of responses launched by the Axis of Resistance have also impacted hotels and other hospitality and tourism businesses in the northern Israeli-occupied territories, which may be directly affected by future strikes.
The commentator warned that these challenging conditions and operational measures, which are also impacting the medical and energy sectors, could persist well into September.
If the wait continues into next month, the Israeli educational sector will also be severely affected by operational measures, forcing institutions to “maneuver within combat scenarios.”
“An Intricate Fabric of Bad Actors Working Hand-in-Hand” – So is war Inevitable?
By Alastair Crooke | Strategic Culture Foundation | August 12, 2024
Walter Kirn, an American novelist and cultural critic, in his 2009 memoir, Lost in the Meritocracy, described how, after a sojourn at Oxford, he came to be a member of ‘the class that runs things’ – the one that “writes the headlines, and the stories under them”. It was the account of a middle-class kid from Minnesota trying desperately to fit into the élite world, and then to his surprise, realising that he didn’t want to fit in at all.
Now 61, Kirn has a newsletter on Substack and co-hosts a lively podcast devoted in large part to critiquing ‘establishment liberalism’. His contrarian drift has made him more vocal about his distrust of élite institutions – as he wrote in 2022:
“For years now, the answer, in every situation—‘Russiagate,’ COVID, Ukraine—has been more censorship, more silencing, more division, more scapegoating. It’s almost as if these are goals in themselves – and the cascade of emergencies mere excuses for them. Hate is always the way,”
Kirn’s politics, a friend of his suggested, was “old-school liberal,” underscoring that it was the other ‘so-called liberals’ who had changed: “I’ve been told repeatedly in the last year that free speech is a right-wing issue; I wouldn’t call [Kirn] Conservative. I would just say he’s a free-thinker, nonconformist, iconoclastic”, the friend said.
To understand Kirn’s contrarian turn – and to make sense of today’s form of American politics – it is necessary to understand one key term. It is not found in standard textbooks, but is central to the new playbook of power: the “whole of society”.
“The term was popularised roughly a decade ago by the Obama administration, which liked that its bland, technocratic appearance could be used as cover to erect a mechanism for a governance ‘whole-of-society’ approach” – one that asserts that as actors – media, NGOs,corporations and philanthropist institutions – interact with public officials to play a critical role not just in setting the public agenda, but in enforcing public decisions.
Jacob Siegel has explained the historical development of the ‘whole of society’ approach during the Obama administration’s attempt to pivot in the ‘war on terror’ to what it called ‘CVE’ – countering violent extremism. The idea was to surveil the American people’s online behaviour in order to identify those who may, at some unspecified time in the future, ‘commit a crime’.
Inherent to the concept of the potential ‘violent extremist’ who has, as yet, committed no crime, is a weaponised vagueness: “A cloud of suspicion that hangs over anyone who challenges the prevailing ideological narratives”.
“What the various iterations of this whole-of-society approach have in common is their disregard for democratic process and the right to free association – their embrace of social media surveillance, and their repeated failure to deliver results …”.
Aaron Kheriaty writes:
“More recently, the whole of society political machinery facilitated the overnight flip from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris, with news media and party supporters turning on a dime when instructed to do so—democratic primary voters ‘be damned’. This happened not because of the personalities of the candidates involved, but on the orders of party leadership. The actual nominees are fungible, and entirely replaceable, functionaries, serving the interests of the ruling party … The party was delivered to her because she was selected by its leaders to act as its figurehead. That real achievement belongs not to Harris, but to the party-state”.
What has this to do with Geo-politics – and whether there will be war between Iran and Israel?
Well, quite a lot. It is not just western domestic politics that has been shaped by the Obama CVE totalising mechanics. The “party-state” machinery (Kheriaty’s term) for geo-politics has also been co-opted:
“To avoid the appearance of totalitarian overreach in such efforts”, Kheriaty argues,“the party requires an endless supply of causes … that party officers use as pretexts to demand ideological alignment across public and private sector institutions. These causes come in roughly two forms: the urgent existential crisis (examples include COVID and the much-hyped threat of Russian disinformation) – and victim groups supposedly in need of the party’s protection”.
“It’s almost as if these are goals in themselves – and the cascade of emergencies mere excuses for them. Hate is always the way”, Kirn underlines.
Just to be clear, the implication is that all geo-strategic critics of the party-state’s ideological alignment must be jointly and collectively treated as potentially dangerous extremists. Russia, China, Iran and North Korea therefore are bound together as presenting a single obnoxious extremism that stands in opposition to ‘Our Democracy’; versus ‘Our Free Speech’ and versus ‘Our Expert Consensus’.
So, if the move to war against one extremist (i.e. versus Iran) is ‘acclaimed’ by 58 standing ovations in the joint session of Congress last month, then further debate is unnecessary – any more than Kamala Harris’ nomination as Presidential candidate needs to be endorsed through primary voting:
Candidate Harris told hecklers on Wednesday, chanting about genocide in Gaza, ‘to pipe down’ – unless they “want Trump to win”. Tribal norms must not be challenged (even for genocide).
Sandra Parker, Chairwoman of the political advocacy arm for the three thousand members of Christians United for Israel (CUFI) was advising on correct talking points, the Times of Israel reports:
“The rise of Republican far right-wingers who spurn decades of (bi-partisan) pro-Israel orthodoxies, favouring isolationism and resurrecting anti-Jewish tropes is alarming pro-Israel evangelicals and their Jewish allies… The break with decades of assertive foreign policy was evident last year when Sen. Josh Hawley derided the “liberal empire” that he dismissively characterised as bipartisan “Neoconservatives on the right, and liberal globalists on the left: Together they make up what you might call the uniparty, the DC establishment that transcends all changing administrations””.
At the CUFI talking points conference, the fear of increased isolation on the Right was the issue:
“You’re going to see that adversaries will see the U.S. as in retreat” – should isolationists get the upper hand: Activists were advised to push back: Should lawmakers claim that NATO expansion is what triggered Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: “Should anybody begin to make the argument that the reason the Russians have moved in on Ukraine – is because of NATO enlargement – can I just say that this is the age-old ‘blame America trope,’” the Chair advised the assembled delegates.
“They have the strain of isolationism that’s – ‘Let’s just do China and forget about Iran, forget about Russia, let’s just do one thing’ – but it doesn’t work that way,” said Boris Zilberman, director of policy and strategy for the CUFI Action Fund. Instead, he described “an intricate fabric of bad actors working hand in hand”.
So, to get to the bottom of this western mind-management in which appearance and reality are cut from the same cloth of hostile extremism: Iran, Russia and China are ‘cut from it’ likewise.
Plainly put, the import of this “behavioural-engineering enterprise (it no longer having much to do with the truth, no longer having much to do with your right to desire what you wish – or not desire what you don’t wish)” – is, as Kirn says: “everyone is in on the game”. “The corporate and state interests don’t believe you are wanting the right things—you might want Donald Trump— or, that you aren’t wanting the things you should want more” (such as seeing Putin removed).
If this ‘whole of society’ machinery is understood correctly in the wider world, then the likes of Iran or Hizbullah are forced to take note that war in the Middle East inevitably may bleed across into wider war against Russia – and have adverse ramifications for China, too.
That is not because it makes sense. It doesn’t. But it is because the ideological needs of ‘whole of society’ foreign-policy hinge on simplistic ‘moral’ narratives: Ones that express emotional attitudes, rather than argued propositions.
Netanyahu went to Washington to lay out the case for all-out war on Iran – a moral war of civilisation versus the Barbarians, he said. He was applauded for his stance. He returned to Israel and immediately provoked Hizbullah, Iran and Hamas in a way that dishonoured and humiliated both – knowing well that it would draw a riposte that would most likely lead to wider war.
Clearly Netanyahu, backed by a plurality of Israelis, wants an Armageddon (with full U.S. support, of course). He has the U.S., he thinks, exactly where he wants it. Netanyahu has only to escalate in one way or another – and Washington, he calculates (rightly or wrongly), will be compelled to follow.
Is this why Iran is taking its time? The calculus on an initial riposte to Israel is ‘one thing’, but how then might Netanyahu retaliate in Iran and Lebanon? That can be altogether an ‘other thing’. There have been hints of nuclear weapons being deployed (in both instances). There is however nothing solid, to this latter rumour.
Further, how might Israel respond towards Russia in Syria, or might the U.S. react through escalation in Ukraine? After all, Moscow has assisted Iran with its air defences (just as the West is assisting Ukraine against Russia).
Many imponderables. Yet, one thing is clear (as former Russian President Medvedev noted recently): “the knot is tightening” in the Middle East. Escalation is across all the fronts. War, Medvedev suggested, may be ‘the only way this knot will be cut’.
Iran must think that appeasing western pleas in the wake of the Israeli assassination of Iranian officials at their Damascus Consulate was a mistake. Netanyahu did not appreciate Iran’s moderation. He doubled-down on war, making it inevitable, sooner or later.
Pentagon Chief Orders Nuclear Submarine Deployment to Middle East
Sputnik – 12.08.2024
WASHINGTON – US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the USS Georgia nuclear submarine to be deployed to the Middle East and the deployment of the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to the region to be accelerated, the Pentagon said on Sunday following Austin’s conversation with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
“Secretary Austin has ordered the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN Carrier Strike Group, equipped with F-35C fighters, to accelerate its transit to the Central Command area of responsibility, adding to the capabilities already provided by the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT Carrier Strike Group. Additionally, the Secretary has ordered the USS Georgia (SSGN 729) guided missile submarine to the Central Command region,” the Pentagon said.
During the phone call, the parties discussed efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and measures to protect Israel. In particular, Austin emphasized the US readiness to take all necessary steps to protect its Middle Eastern ally.
Failure of US policy in the Middle East
By Veniamin Popov – New Eastern Outlook – 10.08.2024
The dramatic events of late July in the Middle East are a clear indication of the failure of American policy in the region.
The Americans, staking their hopes on being able to sweep the Palestinian problem under the carpet, have miscalculated and as a result not only has their influence been weakened, but there is now a real possibility of a new full-scale war.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made nearly a dozen visits to Middle Eastern countries since October 2023, and the only result has been that the mass murder of Palestinians is continuing. The much-publicized “Biden Plan” to resolve the crisis has simply been shelved. All USA’s actions in the Middle East have merely served to exacerbate the situation.
The likelihood of an Iranian response to the Netanyahu government’s actions has brought the entire region to the brink: according to the New York Times, Israel could not fight a war for long alone, so Washington must decide whether to go to war with Iran, along with Israel.
The governments of the Arab countries are aware of the dangers of the situation: as the Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani puts it, political assassinations and the ongoing attacks on civilians in the Gaza Strip during peace talks make us question how mediation can be successful if one side kills the negotiators from the other side. To achieve peace, there is a need for serious partners, and a position of disregard for human life is unacceptable.
Washington is trying to create a military bloc
The American administration tried its best to forge a military alliance between the Arab monarchies and Israel, and to this end it did all it could to woo Riyadh. Today, this strategic plan appears to be an ill-considered fantasy, but Washington is still seeking to create some sort of bloc, with the latest initiative being an economic grouping tentatively named I2U2, consisting of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United States.
The US is also trying to create an important economic corridor from India to Europe via the Middle East, also known as IMEC (India—Middle East—Europe Economic Corridor). It was designed to promote closer trade and energy ties between the European Union and India, with the help of US allies in the Persian Gulf. The goal is to help India distance itself away from China’s attempts to sideline New Delhi from its One Belt, One Road infrastructure initiative. while creating a grand pro-American economic alliance stretching from the EU through Saudi Arabia and the UAE all the way to India—a grouping that would also isolate Iran. The founding partners of the IMEC are the US, EU (France, Germany and Italy), Saudi Arabia, the UAE and India.
The American plan was to give military weight to these intersecting alliances by forging a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia and also normalizing Saudi-Israeli relations. America’s allies in the Middle East—Jordan, Egypt, UAE, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain—would thus serve as an anti-Iranian alliance.
Current events make it clear how unrealistic the calculations of the US are. In this regard, it is worth remembering the words of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who described Muslim countries that normalize relations with Israel as “betting on a losing horse,” before adding that “the definitive stance of the Islamic Republic is that the governments which prioritize the gamble of normalization with the Zionist regime will incur losses… Today, the situation of the Zionist regime is not one that should motivate closeness to it; they should not make this mistake.”
The decline of the US is also evident in its foreign policy
Washington officials frequently display wishful thinking—notable in this regard is an article dated August 2, 2024 by University of Texas professor Gregory Gause III, published in the Foreign Affairs magazine. He argues that the real prospects for a US-Saudi security deal are very elusive, and that Riyadh should hardly be expected to “take Washington’s side Against China and Russia.”
The well-known US American political scientist John Mearsheimer believes that the US, through its unconstructive actions and miscalculations, “has itself played a decisive role in destroying its own world dominance.”
The renowned French scientist Emmanuel Todd, in a recent interview with the Berliner Zeitung, emphasized that trust in the United States around the world is declining because “the West, with America at its center, is experiencing internal disintegration, and we can see the decline of the West at various levels—if we look not at the GDP inflated by the service sector, but at the real industrial and agricultural production of the West, we can see a huge weakness… here the failures in education, especially in the United States, are even more alarming. Educational attainment there has been falling since 1965, there has been a decrease in the number of students, and tests show that IQ levels are dropping. Today in America they often train not engineers, but lawyers and stockbrokers.” Perhaps this can help to explain the huge failures of US foreign policy, including in the Middle East.
Renowned US economist Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University has repeatedly stressed that America’s meddling in the Middle East destabilizes the region and provokes mass suffering. Professor Sachs also believes that changes taking place around the world make it reasonable to expect that “a comprehensive peace in the Middle East based on a two-state solution is still achievable.”
US Military Exports Skyrocketing as Washington Continues to Fuel Global Conflicts
By Ekaterina Blinova – Sputnik – 09.08.2024
The US’ arms exports have risen dramatically since 2022 and may top $100 billion by the year’s end, according to the Pentagon.
In fiscal year (FY) 2022, sales through the US government’s Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system jumped to $49.7 billion from $34.8 billion in FY2021; in FY2023, this number rose again to around $66.2 billion.
So far, FMS sales are already above $80 billion for FY2024, as per the Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
Still, the total value of transferred weapons, services and security cooperation activities conducted under the Foreign Military Sales system in FY2023 was $80.9 billion, representing a 55.9% increase from a total of $51.9 billion in FY2022.
In 2024, the US State Department unveiled government-to-government FMS sales for FY2023, which required congressional notification:
Poland:
- AH-64E Apache Helicopters – $12 billion;
- High mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) – $10 billion;
- Integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) battle command systems (IBCS) – $4 billion;
- M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks – $3.75 billion.
Germany:
- CH-47F Chinook helicopters – $8.5 billion;
- AIM-120C-8 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (AMRAAM) – $2.9 billion.
Norway:
- Defense articles and services related to the MH-60R multi-mission helicopters – $1 billion.
Czech Republic:
- F-35 aircraft and munitions – $5.62 billion.
Bulgaria:
- Stryker vehicles – $1.5 billion.
Australia:
- C-130J-30 aircraft – $6.35 billion.
Canada:
- P-8A aircraft – $5.9 billion.
South Korea:
- F-35 aircraft – $5.06 billion;
- CH-47F Chinook helicopters – $1.5 billion.
Japan:
- E-2D advanced Hawkeye (AHE) airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft – $1.381 billion.
Kuwait:
- National advanced surface-to-air missile system (NASAMS) medium range air defense systems (MRADS) – $3 billion;
- Follow-up technical support – $1.8 billion.
Qatar:
- Fixed site-low, slow, small unmanned aircraft system integrated defeat system (FS-LIDS) – $1 billion.
In addition to that, direct commercial sales (DCS) between foreign nations and US defense contractors jumped from $153.6 billion in FY2022 to $157.5 billion for FY2023. These sales included unspecified military hardware, services and technical data.
The US State Department provided a glimpse on what major DCS Congressional Notifications included in FY2023:
- Italy – For the manufacturing of F-35 wing assemblies and sub-assemblies – $2.8 billion;
- India – For the manufacturing of GE F414-INS6 engine hardware – $1.8 billion;
- Singapore – F100 propulsion system and spare parts – $1.2 billion;
- South Korea – F100 propulsion system and spare parts – $1.2 billion;
- Norway, Ukraine – National advanced surface to air missile systems (NASAMS) – $1.2 billion;
- Saudi Arabia – Patriot guided missile – $1 billion.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) highlights that arms exports by the US rose by 17% between 2014–18 and 2019–23. The US share of total global arms exports increased from 34% to 42%. Between 2019 and 2023, the US delivered major arms to 107 states, which was more than the next two biggest exporters combined, as per SIPRI.
The largest share of US arms went to the Middle East (38%), mostly to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Israel.
US arms exports to states in Asia and Oceania increased by 14% between 2014–18 and 2019–23; 31% of all US arms exports in 2019–23 went to the region with Japan, South Korea and Australia being the largest buyers.
Europe purchased a total of 28% of US arms exports in 2019–23. US arms exports to the region increased by over 200% between the 2014–18 and 2019–23 periods. Ukraine accounted for 4.7% of all US arms exports and 17% of those to Europe.
The institute projects that the US will continue to ramp up military sales in 2024 and beyond, with the focus on combat aircraft, tanks and other armored vehicles, artillery, SAM systems and warships.
Iran enhances naval capabilities with new radar-evading anti-ship missiles with high-explosive warheads
Press TV – August 9, 2024
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy has received new domestically-made equipment, including cruise missiles equipped with highly explosive warheads capable of evading current missile systems.
The naval force took delivery of 2,640 missile systems, drones, and other equipment in a Friday ceremony attended by IRGC chief commander Major General Hossein Salami.
Among the deliveries are new radar-evading cruise missiles that feature high-explosive warheads, capable of causing severe damage and sinking destroyers.
The addition also includes various types of long-range and medium-range missiles, combat and reconnaissance drones, unmanned aerial vehicles featuring electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, as well as electronic warfare systems.
Only 210 homegrown systems out of a total of 2,654 were put on display on Friday as other strategic weapons systems could not be showcased for security considerations, Tasnim News Agency reported, adding that these systems represent some of the navy’s most advanced anti-surface and sub-surface weapons.
“In today’s world, nations must choose between becoming strong and independent or giving in to external pressures; there is no middle ground,” Salami said in the event, adding, “Nations can either strive for strength and freedom, breaking free from the control of global powers, or opt for compromise and submission.”
The sea is a vast arena where all military powers converge, making it a critical meeting point for global forces, he said, noting, “Naval combat and defense represent a comprehensive level of warfare. The sea itself is a complete battlefield, and naval powers are typically self-sufficient in all aspects of combat.”
Naval battles are “decisive,” he stressed. “At sea, speed equates to power, allowing one to outmaneuver the opponent. Precision is crucial; the volume of fire is less important than the accuracy. You must be able to destroy a target with a single hit.”
“In naval operations, utilizing artificial intelligence across all levels—from vessels to missiles, defenses, submarines, and mines—is a crucial aim,” he said elsewhere.
Iranian military experts and engineers have in recent years made remarkable breakthroughs in manufacturing a broad range of indigenous equipment, making the armed forces self-sufficient.
Iranian officials have repeatedly underscored that the country will not hesitate to strengthen its military capabilities, including its missile power, which are entirely meant for defense, and that Iran’s defense capabilities will be never subject to negotiations.
Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has repeatedly called for efforts to maintain and boost Iran’s defense capabilities.
Why The Zionist Entity Decided To Take The Risk Of Regional War?
By Robert Inlakesh | Al Mayadeen | August 8, 2024
Despite the Israeli-US alliance pulling off two high-profile assassinations within hours and posed as if they are ready for an all-out war, it is clear that they could only handle a regional conflagration which would quickly end in a stalemate. If this escalation goes the wrong way, however, there are only two options left for them, and both are terrible.
The Zionist Entity was faced with a choice, after failing to reach victory in Gaza: either end the war or escalate. It was clear from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to the US Congress that the leader of the Entity was bent on escalation and that he would receive bipartisan support in the United States for carrying out actions designed to achieve the desired goal.
Finding their justification in the massacre of 12 Syrian-Druze children in the occupied Golan Heights, quickly jumping to accuse Hezbollah, the Israeli military launched their attack on a multi-story building in southern Beirut. While the Zionists attempted to use the blood of the indigenous people of the Golan, living in Majdal Shams, for their own propaganda purposes, the people refused to allow them and blamed the Zionists for the massacre in their village, as Hezbollah vehemently denied any involvement.
The timing of the massacre came at a convenient time for the Zionist Regime, as the Israeli PM was at the tail end of his trip to the United States. Shortly afterward, the Israelis murdered seven Lebanese and injured around 80 in their attack on the southern suburbs of Beirut. The primary target was Hezbollah military leader Fouad Shokor, who was martyred along with three children and two women on Tuesday, July 30. Then, just hours later, the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital, Tehran.
None of this is by accident and the suggestion that the United States was not involved is simply ludicrous.
What Is The US-Israeli Strategy?
An all-out regional war will result in the annihilation of the Zionist Entity, for even with direct US involvement, the Zionists still can’t win. Even if we assume that nuclear weapons might be used, the firepower of the Resistance is such that the Israelis would experience a similar blow from the sheer scale of missile power directed toward them.
Knowing that victory is not possible, it appears evident, therefore, that strategies are in place to prevent a war from reaching its inevitable conclusion. The Israelis and Americans are frustrated by their devastating failures since the Hamas-led October 7 attack, whether it be in the inability of the Zionist military to secure a victory against the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza, or the US’ embarrassing defeat at the hands of Yemen’s Ansar Allah. The blows dealt to the Zionist Entity, in the security, military, political, societal, and economic spheres, are so great that it is unclear how they can ever recover.
Faced with such a predicament, the US-Israeli alliance had two options, either accept the strategic defeat and pursue a diplomatic solution to the chaos they have wrought over the past 10 months, or, escalate. The assassinations in Beirut and Tehran indicate they chose escalation.
The Israelis themselves have conducted two major war games over the past years, testing the capabilities of the Zionist military to fight a multi-front war, losing both times. Keep in mind that these military exercises were also conducted while assuming that the full strength of the Israeli military would be intact. At this time, the Zionist army is stretched thin, it is undertrained, overworked, and suffers from a lack of motivation and discipline. Additionally, it has lost many of its tanks and armored personnel carriers, as thousands have been damaged and destroyed in Gaza.
It suffices to say that Israel does not possess the capacity to fight the war it is pursuing, which is why the assassinations came as such a shock to many. However, as I have previously written here for Al Mayadeen, the Israelis had one last option left to prolong the war and the strategy is as follows:
Open up a war with Lebanon, but attempt to keep it limited to trade off blows and close the conflict with a stalemate. A war with Hezbollah will bring great carnage to Israeli infrastructure and result in scores of dead Israelis, thereby distracting the population from the war in the Gaza Strip. This would create an environment that could enable the Israeli prime minister to close a ceasefire deal with Hamas in Gaza. From there, the Zionist regime could then pivot to the West Bank, annexing around 60% of its territory and launching a military operation – similar to “Operation Defensive Shield” in 2002 – to murder the majority of the Resistance fighters there.
Under such a scenario, Benjamin Netanyahu will use the assassinations of Resistance leaders as trophies to brag about a supposed victory, while presenting the argument that his regime confronted an existential threat from multiple foes and survived. He will then use the land grab in the West Bank as proof of conquest and the killing of Resistance fighters there as a “security” achievement. This situation is what both the US and their Israeli allies see as the best-case scenario.
However, the situation could quickly spiral out of control and the damage done to the Zionist Entity could prove so great that it remains only a shell of itself if it manages to survive at all. It is a dangerous strategy, to say the very least, and although they may see it as a bold attempt to restore US-Israeli hegemony in West Asia, it also projects weakness and a lack of options. Such a risk, which could result in the end of the Zionist Entity, would only be taken if their backs were against the wall.
If this goes sideways for the Zionists, then they will likely have two options left. The first will be the infamous Samson Option, to use their nuclear weapons. The second could involve the deployment of regional forces into occupied Palestine to prevent the fall of the Zionist Entity.
The first option needs no further explanation; it is pure terror. The second has not been publicly discussed as of now but could also be implemented if it looks like the Israeli regime is about to collapse on the ground and Palestinian territory is close to liberation. If such an event occurs, it is plausible that the Jordanian and Egyptian armies could be deployed into occupied Palestine, in order to prevent the land from being taken over by Resistance fighters who are less likely to engage regional armies, this would also likely involve the presence of the Turkish armed forces who could potentially be deployed as well. Although there is no evidence to support this theory, it might be seen as the only way to de-escalate the situation if the Zionist Entity is on the brink of disintegration.
Regardless, the Zionists have gambled, and only time will tell how this will turn out.
Jordan, Qatar, KSA balk at US-led ‘peacekeeping force’ for post-war Gaza: Report
The Cradle | August 7, 2024
Jordan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have reportedly refused requests to take part in a US-led “peacekeeping force” for Gaza once Israel’s genocide of Palestinians comes to a stop, according to informed sources who spoke with the Times of Israel.
One of the sources told the Israeli outlet that troops from the Arab nations would be seen to be “protecting Israel from the Palestinians.”
The reported positions of Aman, Doha, and Riyadh contrast starkly with those of the UAE and Egypt, which have reportedly expressed willingness to participate in the effort.
Abu Dhabi made this position public last month when Lana Nusseibeh, the country’s Permanent Representative to the UN and special envoy of the Emirati Foreign Ministry, penned an op-ed for the Financial Times (FT) in which she called for the establishment of a “temporary international mission” in Gaza.
“Any ‘day after’ effort must fundamentally alter the trajectory of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict towards the establishment of a Palestinian state that lives in peace and security with the state of Israel … A first step in such an effort is to deploy a temporary international mission that responds to the humanitarian crisis, establishes law and order, lays the groundwork for governance and paves the way to reuniting Gaza and the occupied West Bank under a single, legitimate Palestinian Authority (PA),” Nusseibeh declared.
The UAE in June hosted a secret gathering with US and Israeli officials to discuss plans for Gaza after the genocidal war ends. Abu Dhabi has also stepped up joint efforts with Tel Aviv since 7 October to construct military and intelligence infrastructure on the Socotra Archipelago off the coast of Yemen.
During trips to Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Israel in June, US State Secretary Anthony Blinken reportedly informed officials that Washington had received “support from Cairo and Abu Dhabi for the creation of a force that would work alongside local Palestinian officers” in Gaza, the Times of Israel reports.
“Blinken told counterparts that the US would help establish and train the security force and ensure that it would have a temporary mandate so that it could eventually be replaced by a fully Palestinian body, the third source said, adding that the goal is for the PA to eventually take over full control of Gaza. Blinken clarified, though, that the US would not be contributing troops of its own, the officials said,” the report adds.
Resistance Axis: a calculated, simultaneous strike on Israel
Hezbollah source: Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen will launch simultaneous retaliatory strikes against Israel, to overwhelm the Iron Dome.
By Ali Rizk | The Cradle | August 5, 2024
West Asia stands on a knife’s edge as the region’s Axis of Resistance prepares to retaliate against a series of recent Israeli assassinations and aggressions.
Iran, Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Ansarallah-aligned armed forces have vowed to make the occupation state pay a heavy price following the targeted killing of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in southern Beirut.
Additionally, Israel bombed the Hodeidah port in Yemen following Sanaa’s successful ‘Yafa’ drone operation in Tel Aviv on 19 July.
An official from the Lebanese resistance has informed The Cradle that “The response will come at once from Iran, Hezbollah, and Yemen,” adding that the goal was to “inflict a painful blow to Israel which may not be achieved should separate retaliations be pursued.”
Executing the ‘Unity of Fronts’
Retaliation is all but certain and could happen within hours, according to senior US officials. A report yesterday by Axios claims that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed his G7 counterparts that the response could begin as early as within the next 24 hours.
Just yesterday, Ali al-Qahoum, a member of the political bureau of Ansarallah, emphasized that the response to Israel will not just come from Tehran:
We affirm our commitment to the battle, steadfastness, awareness, honor, and pride in standing with Palestine, the cause of the nation.
The critical question now is the scope and severity of the retaliation. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has promised a painful yet calculated blow to Tel Aviv. During Shukr’s funeral procession, Nasrallah warned that Israel had crossed the line, promising “a real and well-calculated response” – distinct from the cross-border operations Hezbollah has conducted against Israel since 8 October.
Flattening the Iron Dome
Other well-informed sources agree that the response could be coordinated, suggesting that retaliation from multiple fronts simultaneously is likely. They tell The Cradle that such an approach could take Israel’s primary air defense system, the Iron Dome, out of commission by preventing it from rapidly rearming. They believe this is achievable given Hezbollah’s capacity to launch a significant barrage of missiles and given Lebanon’s geographical proximity to potential Israeli targets.
These assessments appear to be consistent with those made by US officials who have warned that the Iron Dome could be overwhelmed by Hezbollah’s missile and drone arsenal should a full-scale war erupt.
Senior US military officials, meanwhile, have gone on the record cautioning that Washington would probably be unable to provide Tel Aviv with sufficient protection even in a single front, full-scale war with Hezbollah. US Joint Chief of Staff Charles Brown said as much in his remarks to the press in late June.
From our perspective, based on where our forces are, the short-range between Lebanon and Israel, it’s harder for us to be able to support them [Israel] in the same way we did in April [with Operation Truthful Promise].
Unwilling US support for Tel Aviv
Although much has been said about the US and its allies successfully thwarting Iran’s response to the Israeli attack on its consulate last April, it is noteworthy that all targeted Israeli military bases were hit during the Iranian retaliatory strikes. Operation Truthful Promise was intended more as a message, indicating that Tehran would no longer tolerate Israeli aggression against its interests.
US military reinforcements in the region may help intercept missiles and drones coming from Lebanon, while vassal state Jordan could also play a part as it did during Iran’s retaliatory strikes. However, this also makes US military assets and those of its partners legitimate targets for the Resistance Axis.
As former Pentagon analyst Michael Maloof explains to The Cradle:
Hezbollah would likely target US warships in the region that would take part in intercepting missiles directed at Israeli targets.
“As in 2006, I envision US involvement focused more on evacuating many of the 86,000 Americans now in Lebanon who would want to leave,” adds Maloof.
Washington’s top military officials also appear firmly opposed to being drawn into an active offensive role should a wider war erupt with Hezbollah, let alone a dreaded multi-front war. This stance is supported by statements from US Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Brown, indicating the Pentagon’s limited willingness to protect the occupation state.
Note that Washington’s pledges to defend Israel have made no mention of potential offensive action, reflecting an American desire to avoid a wider war. Experts doubt the US will become heavily involved in any full-scale war, supported by public statements underscoring the importance of avoiding regional escalation – and voiced more privately, the desire to keep US military targets safe from retaliatory strikes.
Military risk and political calculations
As Brown said at the time, Washington’s main message is:
To think about the second order of effect of any type of operation into Lebanon, and how that might play out and how it impacts not just the region, but how it impacts our forces in regions as well.
The general – the most senior ranking US military official and the senior military advisor to the White House – was delivering a message that carries special significance amidst the recent developments.
By stating that an Israeli-initiated war on Lebanon put US troops at risk, Brown was essentially saying that a wider regional war was not seen as helping US interests by the Pentagon’s top brass.
Given these statements, it remains possible – though far from guaranteed – that the outgoing Biden administration may rein in Israel regardless of how painful a blow is delivered to it by the Axis of Resistance.
The upcoming US election in November is another factor that may prevent a regional conflagration. “The US getting more militarily involved with Israel,” warns Maloof, “would lead to riots in the streets of Chicago at the Democratic Convention later this month.”
These realities suggest a scenario where Washington might force Tel Aviv to absorb the Axis of Resistance’s retaliation, however severe it may be.
What arsenal will Iran use to punish Israel over Haniyeh’s assassination?
By Ivan Kesic | Press TV | August 5, 2024
The stage is set for the retaliatory military operation against the Israeli regime following the assassination of Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday.
A series of statements by the Iranian leadership, including Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) indicate that the regime must brace up for a severe and unprecedented punishment.
Haniyeh was assassinated along with his bodyguard in a terrorist attack in the Iranian capital early on Wednesday. He was in Tehran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of President Pezeshkian.
The attack came barely hours after Israel killed top Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in an airstrike on a residential area in the southern suburb of Beirut, in which an Iranian military advisor and some civilians were also martyred.
Following the attack on Haniyeh, Iran called upon the UN Security Council to take immediate and decisive action, describing the attack as a “serious infringement on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran” and a “blatant violation of the basic norms and principles of international law.”
In a letter to the world body, Amir-Saeed Iravani, Iran’s permanent ambassador to the UN, emphasized the country’s right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.
“This rogue and terrorist regime and its accomplices bear responsibility. The Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate to exercise its inherent right to self-defense, as enshrined in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter to respond decisively and promptly,” he said.
In a statement on Sunday, IRGC said the attack was carried out with a “short-range projectile” with a warhead of approximately 7 kg fired from outside the residence of Haniyeh in north Tehran.
How will retaliation unfold?
There is an intense and animated debate in military and policy circles about the nature of Iran’s response to the terrorist attack against Haniyeh and the kind of weapons that could be used.
Iran possesses a massive arsenal of long-range precision strike weapons, which it has demonstrated in recent years against regional terrorist strongholds and with direct strikes on the Zionist entity in April.
The country has a massive arsenal of ballistic, quasi-ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles, by far the largest in the region and one of the four largest in the world, as well as some of the most advanced models of loitering munitions, also in colossal quantities.
The long ballistic missiles tailor-made for retaliation against the Zionist regime include Shahab-3, Ghadr-110, Fajr-3, Ashura, Sajjil, Emad, Qiam-1, Rezvan, Khorramshahr and Kheibar, while relatively smaller ballistic missiles include Dezful, Kheibar Shekan and Haj Qasem.
The first group of ballistic missiles has a range of 1,000 to 2,500 km and a warhead of 700 to 1,500 kg, while the second group has a range of 1,000 to 1,500 km and mostly carries a half-ton warhead.
Some of them can also carry several warheads, each capable of aiming different targets and some are fitted with submunitions dispensers for striking wide areas like air bases.
This means that Iran is capable of hitting Zionist targets from every ballistic base or site across the country, and the large payload is equivalent to the most powerful bunker busters and can penetrate hardened targets protected by several meters of concrete.
Novelties in Iran’s missile arsenal are the precision-guided Fattah hypersonic missiles with a terminal speed of Mach 13 to 15, and the new Fattah-2 glider version, both untouchable for existing air defense systems.
Furthermore, the last stages of these models also have hypersonic speeds, from Mach 5 to 12, so they are also difficult to intercept by enemy systems, as proved by the operation ‘True Promise’ in April.
Iranian long-range cruise missiles include Soumar, Meshkat, Ya-Ali, Hoveyzeh, Abu Mahdi, Paveh, Talaiyeh and Qadr-474, while long-range loitering munition (kamikaze drones) include Ababil, Arash, Shahed-131, Shahed-136 and Shahed-238.
Iran also has a large fleet of warplanes and drones capable of carrying various bombs and air-to-ground missiles, but previous experience shows that the above-mentioned expendable weaponry is favored for retaliatory operations of this type.
In the April operation against Israel, Iran did not use the most capable ballistic missiles or loitering munition, but still managed to successfully hit Israeli air bases with Kheibar Shekan missiles and engaged numerous Israeli, American, British and French aircraft in the interception of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones.
In that operation, the main purpose of small, cheap and slow kamikaze drones with 50 kg warheads was not to cause damage but to load radar systems in a simultaneous attack with more powerful missiles.
A flight hour of modern jets and their air-to-air missiles, or air defense missiles, cost several times more than kamikaze drones, hence the successful shooting down of swarms represents a cost-efficiency loss.
Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Division, said that in the operation “True Promise” only 20 percent of the originally planned weapons were used, but the enemies had to mobilize everything at their disposal to counter them.
This time, for the announced new strike on the Zionist entity, it is possible to see newer models of missiles and kamikaze drones or those relatively older models in larger quantities.
This time, the targets could be new, since the Ramon and Nevatim air bases were targeted in April as warplanes that took part in the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus had taken off from there.
Since the latest terrorist attack in Tehran was most likely carried out by Zionist intelligence operatives, the headquarters of Israeli spy organizations are potential targets.
These headquarters, unlike the two mentioned air bases, are not in uninhabited desert regions but in the densely populated metropolitan Tel Aviv, where half of the population of the Zionist entity lives.
Other likely targets are military bases, vital industrial infrastructure, ports or regime buildings, also in the areas of Tel Aviv, Haifa and other major cities in the occupied territories.
Due to the high sophistication and precision of Iranian missiles, the only danger for ordinary settlers in the occupied territories is the debris of their own interceptor missiles, either in the case of successful or unsuccessful shooting down.
Warnings from Iran
On Wednesday, Ayatollah Khamenei had warned the Israeli regime of a “harsh response” for the assassination of a “dear guest” – the leader of the Hamas resistance movement.
“The criminal and terrorist Zionist regime martyred our dear guest in our homeland and left us bereaved, but it also set the ground for a harsh punishment for itself,” the Leader said.
“He was not afraid of embracing martyrdom in the way of God and saving God’s servants, but we consider it our duty to avenge his blood in this bitter and horrific incident that took place in the Islamic Republic’s territory,” he asserted.
President Pezeshkian, in a meeting with Jordanian top diplomat Ayman Safadi on Sunday, described the assassination of Haniyeh as a “great crime” that he said “will not go unanswered.”
The IRGC said in a statement that the terrorist attack was “planned and executed” by Israel with the support of the US government, warning that the Zionist regime would receive “a severe punishment at the appropriate time, place and manner.”
The top commander of IRGC, Major General Hossein Salami, strongly warned the Israeli regime of the consequences of the recent assassinations in Tehran and Beirut.
The perpetrators, he said, “should await sacred fury, harsh revenge, and vengeance on the part of the devoted, resolute, and determined mujahedeen of the various fronts of the regional resistance.”
On Friday, Ali Baqeri Kani, acting Foreign Minister, said Iran will certainly exercise its inherent and legitimate right to punish the “criminal Zionist gang” for its terrorist attack.
Baqeri made these remarks during a phone call with Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, emphasizing that the Israeli regime’s terrorist act, in addition to violating Iran’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty, has endangered regional and international peace and stability.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf in remarks on Sunday said Iran’s “crushing and smart response” to the Israeli regime and the US will make them regret the assassination
Meanwhile, the Pentagon has announced the deployment of additional warplanes and warships to the Persian Gulf region, as well as an additional 4,000 Marines and sailors amid heightened tensions.
Shoigu Arrives in Iran to Discuss Global, Regional Security
Sputnik – 05.08.2024
TEHRAN – Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has arrived in Iran for a planned working visit to discuss global and regional security issues, the Russian Security Council said on Monday.
Shoigu will hold talks with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, and Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian armed forces Mohammad Bagheri. Shoigu will be received by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The agenda includes a wide range of issues of cooperation between Russia and Iran in Tehran, including security and economy.
Previously, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian at the BRICS summit in Kazan in October. In July, the Iranian President-elect released a message underscoring that Russia is “a valued strategic ally and neighbor to Iran and my administration will remain committed to expanding and enhancing our cooperation.”
“I will continue to prioritize bilateral and multilateral cooperation with Russia, particularly within frameworks such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Eurasia Economic Union,” Pezeshkian stated.
Sergei Shoigu’s visit comes as Israel has been bracing for a potential attack from Iran and Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah in the wake of the assassination of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr last week.
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‘Conspiracy Theory’ Now Fact: Greater Israel Has Arrived
By Kit Klarenberg | Mint Press News | January 28, 2025
Ever since Tel Aviv’s 1948 creation, much has been said and written about ‘Greater Israel’ – the notion Zionism’s ultimate end goal is the forcible annexation and ethnic cleansing of vast swaths of Arab and Muslim lands for Jewish settlement, based on Biblical claims this territory was promised to Jews by God. The mainstream media typically dismisses this concept as antisemitic conspiracy theory, or at most the fringe fantasy of a minuscule handful of extremist Israelis.
In reality … continue
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