Senate Majority Leader: Any War with Iran Should Result in Regime Change
By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | February 26, 2026
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said that any strikes on Iran should be aimed at causing regime change in Tehran.
“In my view, if you’re going to do something there, you better well make it about getting new leadership and regime change,” the Senator said on Thursday. “If you’re going to take some sort of action, I think you want to achieve a result that actually brings about the transformational change that I think we want in the region.”
Thune is among several Senators who have argued that Tehran is historically weak, and President Donald Trump should order an attack on Iran to cause regime change. “The Ayatollah lost to Israel in the 12-day war. They are weaker. The regime is weaker than it ever has been. And what I’ve urged the president, do not miss this opportunity,” Cruz told CNBC host Joe Kernen on Wednesday. “If the Ayatollah is removed from power, it will make America much safer.”
Trump is threatening to attack Iran if Tehran does not agree to a deal that severely restricts its civilian nuclear program in exchange for minimal sanctions relief.
While Senators and administration officials have asserted that the US must attack Iran to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, the Islamic Republic does not have a nuclear weapons program and is not currently enriching uranium.
“The President, I don’t think, to my knowledge, has made any decisions, but I think they’re gaming out what contingencies might look like and what’s in our national security interests.” Thune added, “Of course, first and foremost is to prevent them from having a nuclear capability but there are also other threats that they represent in the region.”
Iraqi Resistance warns of action if US forces remain
Al Mayadeen | February 26, 2026
Iraqi Resistance factions have issued a firm warning to Washington, declaring that continued US military presence on Iraqi soil will not go unanswered.
In a statement released Wednesday, the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee, an umbrella body bringing together six anti-terror formations, said it stands ready to act if the United States refuses to end the “ongoing occupation” and persistent interference in national affairs.
The committee accused Washington of failing to respect its obligations under its agreement with Baghdad, which provides for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraq. Despite repeated official declarations that the US combat mission ended years ago, Resistance groups argue that foreign troops remain entrenched under different titles.
“The US actions in Iraq ‘leave us with no choice but to assume our legal and moral responsibilities in taking positions befitting the dignity of our people and their legitimate right to end the occupation, if American forces insist on maintaining their presence and imposing their will on the country,” the statement said.
The coalition also charged that US forces continue to violate Iraqi airspace and undermine the country’s stability, describing such conduct as a “blatant violation” of national sovereignty and dignity.
Advisory mission pretext
While Washington claims that approximately 2,500 American troops remain only in an “advice and assist” capacity following the declared end of combat operations in December 2021, resistance factions view this designation as cosmetic. They argue that the continued deployment, however limited in scale, preserves military infrastructure, intelligence networks, and rapid-response capabilities that entrench US influence rather than end it.
From their perspective, the counter-ISIS mandate increasingly functions as a framework that justifies a long-term strategic foothold in a country central to regional power balances. Even a reduced presence, they contend, enables Washington to retain leverage over Iraqi decision-making while projecting influence across neighboring theaters.
Beyond the security dimension, the Resistance Coordination Committee pointed to direct American meddling in Iraq’s political process, saying that Washington effectively determines which Iraqi political figures may assume senior government positions.
Maliki pressure campaign
The reference was widely understood as relating to Nouri al-Maliki, whose potential return to the premiership has faced US opposition. Washington threatened sanctions on Iraqi individuals and institutions should Maliki take office. Recent reports indicate that the United States has given Iraq’s largest parliamentary bloc until February 27 to withdraw his candidacy, despite Maliki’s insistence that he will not step aside.
For Resistance factions, such moves are examples of direct political coercion, reinforcing their claim that Iraq’s sovereignty remains constrained more than two decades after the US-led invasion of 2003, a war launched on the now-discredited allegation that Baghdad possessed weapons of mass destruction.
China, Russia slam US threat, force against Iran ahead of talks
Al Mayadeen | February 26, 2026
China on Thursday called for restraint and dialogue between the United States and Iran, as Washington continues a significant military buildup in the Persian Gulf ahead of renewed diplomatic talks.
Speaking in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said China was “closely following developments in Iran” amid rising regional tensions.
“China advocates the resolution of issues through political and diplomatic channels and opposes the use of threat or force in international affairs,” Mao told reporters when asked whether Beijing would join Moscow in backing Tehran against what was described as potential US aggression.
Mao emphasized the longstanding ties between the two countries, stating that the “Chinese and Iranian people are traditionally friendly.” She added that China supports the Iranian government and people in safeguarding their “legitimate rights, interests, and national stability.”
Reiterating Beijing’s position, Mao stressed the importance of de-escalation. “We hope all sides exercise restraint and solve disputes through dialogue,” she said, adding that China is ready to continue playing a “constructive role as a responsible major country.”
Russia blames US ‘irresponsible escalation of regional tensions’
Likewise, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow sees the constant threats against Iran, as well as the irresponsible escalation of regional tensions by the United States.
“We see constant threats against Tehran and saber-rattling, intimidation, and Washington’s irresponsible escalation of regional tensions,” Zakharova said during a briefing.
Moscow and Tehran are developing mutually beneficial cooperation, despite Washington’s escalation of regional tensions, the Russian spokesperson added.
US build-up escalates significantly
Amid these developments, US military buildup in the Middle East has expanded significantly, with Washington assembling 16 warships, about 40,000 troops, and at least seven air wings in the region, the Financial Times reported, citing rising US-Iran tensions.
US President Donald Trump said on February 19 that he will decide within 10 to 15 days whether to pursue diplomacy with Iran or take military action, Axios reported. Speaking in Washington, he said the coming days would be decisive for US policy. “Now we may have to take it a step further, or we may not,” Trump said, adding, “Maybe we are going to make a deal [with Iran].”
The United States had already maintained five air wings, command units of roughly 70 aircraft each, at bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. It has since added two more aboard the aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford, reinforcing what Trump described as a “massive armada” of 16 vessels and expanding Washington’s operational reach.
The overall US troop presence in the region now stands at around 40,000 personnel. Citing data from Tel Aviv University, the Financial Times reported that Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti military base hosts at least 66 fighter jets, including 18 F-35s, 17 F-15s, and eight A-10s, along with EA-18 electronic warfare aircraft and transport planes. Satellite data also show an increase in fighter jets at a Saudi air base, reflecting the broader expansion of the US air footprint across Jordan and the Gulf.
US fears Iran war will ‘deplete’ air defenses stretched thin by Ukraine, Israel: Report
The Cradle | February 26, 2026
Military officials and lawmakers in Washington have warned that a prolonged war with Iran could stretch US military stockpiles of air defense interceptor missiles “to the brink and make the country more vulnerable,” POLITICO reported on 26 February.
“Gen. Dan Caine, the Joint Chiefs of Staff chair, has raised concerns about the military’s shortage of air defense interceptors since January,” POLITICO wrote, citing a person familiar with the matter.
“But the fears have magnified in recent weeks as the Pentagon amassed the largest military buildup in the Middle East since the Iraq War,” the magazine added.
Since returning to the White House a year ago, US President Donald Trump has won praise from Israelis while supporting the genocide in Gaza and overseeing a massive expansion of US military operations, including in Venezuela, Yemen, and Nigeria.
Crucially, Trump ordered US warplanes to join Israel’s 12-day war on Iran to bomb Tehran’s nuclear sites in June 2025.
Interceptor missiles were used not only to protect US forces from Iranian and Yemeni counterattacks but also to protect Israel from Iran’s barrages of ballistic missiles and drones.
During these operations, US forces “burned through” significant numbers of Standard Missile-3s, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, and Patriot missiles, POLITICO observed.
Since then, the Pentagon has been unable to replenish its interceptor stocks due to the complexity and slow pace of their production.
Six current and former US officials and members of Congress told POLITICO of their widespread worries that a sustained war with Iran could deplete remaining US air defenses and “leave tens of thousands of American troops in the region unprotected against Tehran’s missile salvos.”
An Israeli intelligence official stated on Thursday that the US only has the capacity to sustain four or five days of intense aerial assault on Iran, the Times of Israel wrote, citing the Financial Times (FT).
Israel is pushing for a major war, claiming that limited US strikes on Iran could only “embolden the regime,” the Times of Israel added.
Since January, President Trump has assembled what he called an “armada” of US naval ships with accompanying war planes in the region in preparation for a possible renewed attack on the Islamic Republic.
Analysts have suggested that Iran will retaliate much more strongly in the event of a second war, including against US bases in the Gulf, leading to a much longer and more devastating war than last June.
“Do we have enough interceptors to sustain a retaliation?” said the person familiar with the talks. “We don’t have a discretely focused objective. Is it regime change or is it [just] ballistic missiles?”
A US military spokesperson responded to the POLITICO report by saying its weapons stockpiles are sufficient.
“The Department of War has everything it needs to execute any mission at the time and place of the president’s choosing and on any timeline,” said spokesperson Sean Parnell.
However, some US lawmakers say that the defense industry is not producing enough Lockheed Martin-built Patriot interceptors or RTX’s Tomahawk long-range missiles, nor quickly enough.
“There have been urgent calls for reforms in procurement, but the net result is that we are seemingly unable to meet all of the needs for defense production – for Ukraine, for our partners in the Middle East,” said Richard Blumenthal, a Democratic congressman.
“It may be problematic to think about moving Patriot missile interceptor systems from the Middle East because now we’re going to have to protect our embassies, not to mention our bases,” he added.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, estimated the US had used up to 20 percent of the Standard Missile-3 interceptors and between 20 and 50 percent of its THAAD missiles.
North Korea Open to Rapprochement If US Respects Its Nuclear Status – Kim Jong-un
Sputnik – 26.02.2026
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that Pyongyang has no reason not to pursue rapprochement with the United States if Washington abandons hostility and respects North Korea’s nuclear status.
“If the US respects the present position of our [nuclear] state specified in the Constitution of the DPRK and withdraws its hostile policy toward the DPRK, there is no reason why we cannot get on well with the US,” Kim was quoted by KCNA as saying at a military parade commemorating the Ninth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK).
He added that over the past five years, the WPK has permanently enshrined the country’s status as a nuclear state, signaling to adversaries that until the world completely changes, Pyongyang will under no circumstances abandon nuclear weapons.
Kim said that further expanding and strengthening the state’s nuclear armed forces, the core of the armed forces in implementing war deterrence and war-fighting strategy, and consistently exercising the right of a nuclear state, represents the party’s unwavering will.
“We have a long-term plan to strengthen the national nuclear force on an annual basis in the future and will concentrate on increasing the number of nuclear weapons and expanding the means and space for nuclear operation,” the leader said.
Kim added that Pyongyang intends to modernize strike capabilities and nuclear weapons control systems, enhance nuclear force combat readiness through exercises, and improve nuclear crisis response systems. He also prioritized equipping the country’s naval forces with nuclear weapons as part of efforts to strengthen the military.
“The DPRK’s position as the nuclear weapons state plays an important role in deterring the potential threat of its enemies and maintaining regional stability, and the state nuclear force is a basic guarantee and powerful security device reliably ensuring the country’s security, interests and rights to development,” the leader said.
Kim added that the expansion and strengthening of aggressive US-led blocs in the Asia-Pacific region and their military actions, which exceed limits, are creating an unusual situation that seriously threatens security on the Korean Peninsula and in the region.
Islamic Jihad: Trump’s peace board is a “theatrical stunt detached from reality”
Palestinian Information Center – February 25, 2026
BEIRUT – Mohamed al-Hindi, Islamic Jihad’s deputy secretary-general, has described the US-led Board of Peace as nothing more than a “theatrical stunt,” saying it is detached from the reality on the ground.
In an interview with Al Jazeera Mubasher satellite channel on Wednesday, Hindi stressed that the board’s recent meeting “has not brought about any change in the course of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip or in the scale of Israel’s ongoing violations against Palestinians.”
Hindi affirmed that this peace council was founded on a “formula of absolute American dominance and full security for Israel, while denying the Palestinian people the right to shape their own future.”
“The Palestinian role in this framework is purely symbolic, confined to technocratic committees handling Gaza’s municipal affairs without any sovereignty or political power,” Hindi said.
“The proposed vision fully embraces Israel’s stance, linking Gaza’s reconstruction to resistance groups surrendering their weapons, without any serious discussion of an Israeli withdrawal or accountability for ceasefire violations,” the Islamic Jihad official added.
He underscored that his Movement never trusted the US administrations under president Donald Trump or his predecessor Joe Biden, citing America’s unwavering pro-Israel bias.
He said that the Palestinian acceptance of prior understandings over Gaza aimed solely to put an end to Israel’s relentless massacres against civilians.
The Head Of A CIA Cutout Admits To Meddling In Iran To Fuel Unrest
The Dissident | February 24, 2026
At a recent House Appropriations Committee hearing, Damon Wilson, the current president of the National Endowment for Democracy, the notorious cutout of the CIA’s regime change arm, which has previously helped fund coups around the world, admitted to meddling in Iran and helping to fuel both the women’s life freedom protests in 2022 and the recent protests in Iran.
Wilson boasted that the U.S. government-funded organization helped spread the story of a woman being killed for not wearing a headscarf in Iran that sparked the women’s life freedom protests in 2022, even admitting that the story would not have spread across Iran without the NED.
Wilson admitted, in response to the question, “Are you doing anything in Iran and can you tell us what that is?”, “This has been a huge priority for the endowment. Iran has been- since I arrived at the endowment- our fastest growing program. It’s now one of our largest programs globally that involves both direct partners, Iranian groups as well as our core institutes. If you think about the impact of our work in Iran, the reason the women life freedom movement began with the the simple act of a young woman who didn’t fully cover her her head with a headscarf, that story … could have been lost in a regional as a regional story in Iran, but NED Partners helped cover that story, get it out to the world, and get it back into Iran.”
He also admitted in reference to the most recent protests in Iran, that the organization has helped smuggle Starlink terminals into Iran and spread propaganda that helped spark the pro-regime change protests.
Damon Wilson boasted, “the endowment has been making investments over years that have ensured that there have been secure communications, including Starlinks, other means, file casting that allowed information to go both in and out of the country at a time when the regime tried to hide its brutal crackdown” adding, “Part of what we see manifesting is a response that our partners have helped tell the Iranian people the story that the regime has squandered their own resources on supporting proxies throughout the Middle East to the point where they cannot manage their own water supplies for Tehran. And these stories have not just emerged, they are ones that have been covered, documented, and shared with the Iranian people consistently through our work.”
He added, “we’ve been investing in communication tools over the years that allow for information to be sent into Iran even when internet connectivity is blocked. We specifically began supporting the deployment, the operation of about 200 Starlinks early on.”
Damon Wilson boasted that the NED has spread stories that the Iranian government has “squandered their own resources” and “cannot manage their own water supplies for Tehran”, issues that have, in large part, been caused by U.S. sanctions.
Previously U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has boasted that U.S. sanctions helped spark the protests in Iran saying, “What we can do at treasury, and what we have done, is created a dollar shortage in the country, at a speech at the Economic club in New York in March I outlined the strategy, it came to a swift -and I would say grand- culmination in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under, there was a run in the bank, the central bank had to print money, the Iranian currency went into freefall, inflation exploded and hence we have seen the Iranian people out on the street.”
While Scott Bessent boasts that U.S. sanctions led to “Iranian people out on the street”, Damon Wilson is boasting that the NED has flooded Iran with anti-government messaging while people are suffering worsening conditions from the U.S. sanctions, in order to further destabilize Iran and further the ultimate goal of regime change.
Iran warns Trump against decisions based on false information
Press TV – February 25, 2026
Iran’s Parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has warned US President Donald Trump against making decisions based on false information, emphasizing that Iran has never sought, does not seek, and will never seek nuclear weapons.
Speaking at a meeting with economic activists in the Iranian Parliament on Wednesday, Qalibaf reacted to Trump’s latest remarks over Iran’s peaceful nuclear activities.
During his State of the Union address in congress, Trump once again claimed that he would not allow what he called the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism to obtain a nuclear weapon.
Qalibaf said, “In a previous interview I gave to CNN, I told the US president not to make incorrect analyses based on false information, and then make wrong decisions.”
He stated that Iran has “never sought, does not seek, and will never seek nuclear weapons,” adding that despite these assurances, the United States continues “to act with threats.”
He criticized US claims during the 12-day war, including reports that the city of Mashhad had fallen, and condemned foreign interference and misinformation by anti-Iranian elements and Israel which orchestrated attempted coups during the riots.
Qalibaf also noted that Trump directly intervened in the recent diturbances, citing his statement on the 12th day of the 12-day war promising US assistance.
He dismissed US and Israeli accounts of casualties reporting 32,000 deaths in latest foreign-backed riots, calling them false and misleading.
He said the real perpetrators were past terrorists responsible for over 17,000 targeted killings in Iran, including the deaths of high-ranking officials such as the president, prime minister, judiciary chief, parliament members, and military commanders.
The parliament speaker also referred to a recent statement by US special envoy to West Asia, Steve Witkoff, who said Trump is “curious” as to why Iran has not “capitulated” to US demands.
“The reason the Iranian people do not fear or submit,” Qalibaf said, “is because you do not understand them. Even during the 12-day war, while the fifth and sixth rounds of negotiations were underway, Trump attacked us from behind the negotiation table, along with Israel, and faced a humiliating defeat.”
Qalibaf emphasized that all options regarding the United States remain on the table, including both dignified diplomacy and a deterrent defense.
He added that if the diplomatic table respects Iranian dignity and mutual interests, Iran will engage, noting that the third round of negotiations is scheduled for tomorrow.
The remarks come as Iran and the US held a second round of indirect nuclear negotiations at the Omani consulate general in the Swiss city of Geneva on February 17.
As in the previous round in the Omani capital of Muscat, the agenda of the talks focused primarily on the nuclear issue and the lifting of illegal US sanctions.
The US maintains that Iran must cease its nuclear program, whereas Tehran asserts that it is not pursuing nuclear weapons and says it is entitled to peaceful nuclear energy.
Washington began its war rhetoric against Iran after recent economic protests in the country, which were hijacked by foreign spy agencies and turned violent.
Since then, the US president has kept threatening military action against Iran, deploying two carrier groups and dozens of fighter jets, bombers, and refueling aircraft to regional waters near Iran.
Pentagon sets deadline for Anthropic to lift AI restrictions on autonomous weapons systems, mass domestic surveillance
The Cradle | February 25, 2026
The US Department of War has issued a deadline to AI company Anthropic to allow broader military use of its Claude models or face possible action under the Defense Production Act.
The company could face losing its Pentagon contract, and has been threatened with a government blacklist, US media reports said.
The Pentagon has a $200-million contract with Anthropic. The company has placed guardrails on the Claude AI, preventing its use for fully autonomous weaponry and mass domestic surveillance, triggering a standoff with US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
Hegseth met with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on Tuesday. According to CNN, the CEO held firm on the restrictions.
Amodei has until Friday at 5:00 pm to “get on board or not,” a source told CNN.
If it does not, Hegseth will make sure “the Defense Production Act is invoked on Anthropic, compelling them to be used by the Pentagon regardless of if they want to or not.”
“Anthropic has concerns over two issues that it isn’t willing to drop, AI-controlled weapons and mass domestic surveillance of US citizens. Anthropic believes AI is not reliable enough to operate weapons, and there are no laws or regulations yet that cover how AI could be used in mass surveillance,” CNN’s sources went on to say.
According to Axios, Washington has threatened to declare Anthropic a “supply chain risk.”
“The only reason we’re still talking to these people is we need them and we need them now. The problem for these guys is they are that good,” a US official told Axios.
Anthropic said it remains engaged in “good-faith conversations” to support national security “in line with what our models can reliably and responsibly do.”
Claude has already been used by the US military for intelligence analysis, mission planning, and satellite imagery processing.
Washington reportedly used the AI model in the mission to illegally kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. This came via Anthropic’s partnership with Palantir, which has entered into multi-billion-dollar partnerships with the US and Israeli governments, and has been used in the Gaza genocide.
Several other AI systems were used to kill Palestinians.
The Pentagon has been negotiating AI contracts with major firms, including Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, and xAI, with each contract valued at up to $200 million.
Palantir CEO Alex Karp openly stated this month that his company is dedicated “to the service of the west and the United States of America” and aims to “disrupt” and “on occasion” to “kill” the enemies of the west and the US.
Trump’s military buildup against Iran on Netanyahu’s behalf is a gambit doomed to fail
By Iqbal Jassat | Press TV | February 25, 2026
While uncertainty clouds the possibility of America launching a full-scale war on the Islamic Republic of Iran, pro-war narratives emanating from the apartheid regime of Israel desperately seek to justify it.
The war cries raised by Israel’s genocidaires are hardly surprising. After all, it is well known that the regime premier and the criminal-in-chief, Benjamin Netanyahu, has, since the 1990,s been pressuring the United States to carry out direct military action against Tehran.
Hence, it would not be incorrect to conclude that Washington’s war drums over Iran are not the product of strategy. They are the product of imperial reflex and Zionist pressure masquerading as deterrence.
Bizarrely, the spectacle of force assembled under President Donald Trump’s orders, the largest concentration of US air and naval power in the region since 2003, is being sold as strength, whereas it is, in fact, insecurity dressed up as bravado.
The indicators tell their own story.
Despite the theatrics of deployment, the expected escalation signals, mass embassy evacuations and sweeping NOTAM expansions remain limited.
Even within the American military establishment, caution seeps through the cracks. As noted in the February 2026 analysis circulated by Larry Johnson and Douglas Macgregor, the absence of full-spectrum preparatory measures suggests hesitation, not inevitability.
Contrary to the mainstream Western media’s view of “weighing options”, the reality points to a deeply fractured power struggle inside Washington’s war machine.
For instance, the Washington Post report citing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan Caine is particularly revealing.
Caine’s warning about depleted munitions stockpiles, exhausted by Washington’s underwriting of Israel’s war machine and its proxy entanglements in Ukraine, punctures Trump’s fantasy of an “easily won” confrontation.
Trump’s public denial of Caine’s caution is predictable. But the leak itself is the story when senior military officials allow their reservations to reach the press, it is the Pentagon placing a marker in history: we warned him.
Netanyahu’s pressure on Trump has left him in a huge dilemma.
Iran is not Iraq. It is not Libya. It is not a fragmented state awaiting aerial collapse. It is a formidable military with layered air defenses, dispersed missile clusters, hardened infrastructure and strategic depth supported by Russia and China.
The fantasy that standoff air power will induce “disintegration” is recycled doctrine from Kosovo, Iraq and countless failed coercion campaigns. Precision bombing has never delivered political submission where sovereignty is embedded in national resistance.
Yet Trump persists in the illusion that overwhelming force will produce capitulation. Historians will remind us about the folly of imperial habits.
What is absent from Washington’s framing is the geopolitical driver beneath the rhetoric.
The protection of Israeli supremacy remains the unspoken constant. Every escalation is filtered through Tel Aviv’s military and “security” doctrine. Every negotiation is judged by whether it secures Israel’s interests rather than American interests.
Just as the American public is told the “reason” for US hostility is about nuclear proliferation, so too have Zionist-allied agents in South Africa used similar fake arguments to justify the annihilation of Iran.
Some analysts based in the Israeli-occupied territories, who are skeptical about Netanyahu’s motives, remind us that his long-held view about a US attack on Iran would be a “masterstroke” to attain his personal incentive to remain in power.
The reality, though, as Caine cautioned, exposes a deeper truth: the United States is overextended. Its munitions stockpiles are strained. Its alliances are brittle. Its domestic coalition is fractured. A war with Iran would not be a swift surgical strike. It would be attrition, retaliation and regional conflagration.
What unfolds now is not a clash of civilizations. It is the exhaustion of empire confronting the limits of coercion.
A war with Iran would not restore American dominance. It would accelerate its unraveling and the warning has been issued from within.
Whether Trump listens is irrelevant to the structural decline already underway.
Iqbal Jassat is an executive member of the Media Review Network, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Big League War
By William Schryver | February 24, 2026
“What the West has, and has had for some time now, is a single-shot military. One serious campaign, whether finally won or lost, would disarm the West for a decade.” — Aurelien
This, folks, is the simple truth of the matter.
The US simply could not, at this moment — nor at any time in even the medium-term future — mount and sustain a campaign the size, intensity, and duration of what we have seen in Ukraine for the past four years.
US logistical chains would have long-since broken down; losses in men and equipment — including LOTS of heavy lift cargo aircraft and the refueling tankers upon which they depend to fly across the planet — would have been calamitous.
Oh, sure, in the context of the current crisis in the Middle East, there’s a huge chorus of people who are gung-ho convinced that US air and naval power would overcome all obstacles in a matter of days, bringing the presumptuous third-world Iranians to their knees.
That’s not what would happen.
What would happen is that, despite a few spectacular successes to stuff the first 24-hour news cycle, the “full-spectrum dominance” everyone believes the US wields would, over the course of just a few days, suffer shocking losses across the entire military spectrum.
Several US aircraft of all types would be shot down.
A few US warships would very likely be damaged — or possibly even sunk.
US bases in the Persian Gulf region would be pounded relentlessly by Iranian drones and ballistic missiles.
US air defenses would exhaust their meager stockpiles of interceptors within just a few days.
US airborne ISR assets would be aggressively targeted, and some could quite conceivably be shot down.
SEAD assets like the E/A-18G Growler and the F-16CJ Wild Weasels would prove more vulnerable to Iranian air defenses than is widely believed.
The legendary (but old and slow) Tomahawk cruise missiles would be jammed and / or shot down in surprising numbers — or even just malfunction on their own, as did 25% of a recent salvo of a dozen that was fired into Nigeria.
As even Israeli intelligence is reported to believe, the US force arrayed against Iran could only sustain high-intensity strikes for about FIVE days. After that, the US would start to experience severe shortages of all types of precision-guided munitions, greatly exacerbated by the degree to which Iranian strikes could attrit weapons stockpiles, destroy refueling tankers, and render runways unusable by boutique US aircraft that need everything to be perfectly pristine.
Iranian naval capability would very likely surprise many people around the world. Their small, fast missile boat swarms present a formidable asymmetric threat, and they have several small submarines that may prove sufficiently stealthy to sneak up on US warships, including the big lumbering US Ohio-class missile submarines.
Iran is by no means a major military power like Russia and China. But they are unquestionably an extremely formidable asymmetric military power, and they have been planning and preparing to fight an asymmetric war against the Americans for the past quarter century.
And if, as now appears almost certain, the Russians and Chinese provide Iran top-shelf intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data, Iranian capabilities would be significantly augmented.
US naval officers confessed that the recent Battle of the Red Sea against the Houthi warriors of Yemen was the most intense combat the US Navy had experienced since WW2.
Iran possesses firepower an entire order of magnitude greater than the Houthi.
A two-week long high-intensity war against Iran would be a stunning exhibition of 21st century warfare.
It would be Big League War, rather than what the US has been fighting for the past several decades.
Both sides would be hurt badly, but the Iranians would not be severely depleted, let alone defeated, whereas the US would be hurt in a fashion it has not experienced in the memory of many people still alive — only to then look around and discover itself in a state of acute logistical crisis after only a fortnight of high-intensity combat operations.
That will be the moment of decision; the last chance for the saner heads within the halls of empire — those who have hitherto acquiesced as this catastrophe unfolded — to choose to finally act to stop the madness, or stand idly by as they and all the rest of us are acted upon by events that spiral out of control.

