US vs Iran: Kharg Island Talk — Bluff or Escalation? Ex-Military Officer Weighs In
Yellow sulphur, a byproduct of petrochemical refinement, contrasts with the blue sea at Kharg Island, Iran.
Sputnik – 26.03.2026
“An operation towards Kharg Island might happen, but it might as well be a smokescreen or a way for the US to put pressure on Iran,” ex-Swedish army officer and defense politician Mikael Valtersson tells Sputnik, commenting on reports about a possible US ground operation against the Islamic Republic.
News outlets earlier reported that the Pentagon was preparing to send about 2,000 soldiers from the US army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.
“This might be an attempt to pressure Iran towards negotiations,” Valtersson points out.
“The problem with such a strategy is that Iran knows that Trump is desperate to get lower oil prices and a better world, especially the US economy,” Valtersson says, adding that “therefore such an attack is unlikely, since the loss of Iranian oil export and a potential long-term loss of oil production in the Gulf States after retaliatory strikes from Iran would worsen the energy crisis both in the short and long term.”
He notes that all talk about an attack on Kharg Island might also be a smokescreen and an attempt to divert Iranian defensive capabilities from the Strait of Hormuz, which is also very hard to achieve, since Iran has the capacity to defend both areas simultaneously. “And at the same time, it is also very hard to move Iranian military assets without getting them destroyed by US or Israeli air power,” he pointed out.
“One thing is sure, it wouldn’t do anything to open the Hormuz strait. It would of course hit Iranian oil exports if US forces took control of Kharg, but that would also increase oil prices even more,” the former Swedish army officer points out.
In conclusion, he suggests that the most likely scenario is the United States attempting to ramp up pressure on Iran. In doing so, it underestimates Iranian capabilities and, in effect, prepares for a highly risky military operation—one that could ultimately result in both a military and a media defeat for the US. “Even a tactical victory on the ground would probably result in a strategic failure for the United States,” Valterson maintains.
Turkish tanker blacklisted by Ukraine hit in drone attack – media
RT | March 26, 2026
A Turkish oil tanker has reportedly been struck by drones near the Bosphorus after taking on around 140,000 tons of oil at a Russian port, local media reported on Thursday. The ship is blacklisted by the Ukrainian government for transporting Russian goods.
The vessel, identified as the Altura, is owned by Turkish shipping company Pergamon and operated by a crew of 27 Turkish nationals. According to reports, it was targeted by air and surface drones around 22 km from the strategic waterway. While no casualties were reported, the ship is said to have sustained damage to its bridge and upper deck, with flooding reported in the engine room.
There has been no immediate official confirmation of the incident, and no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Ukrainian military intelligence previously accused the Altura and its operator of belonging to a ‘shadow fleet’, which allegedly helps Russia bypass Western sanctions on oil exports. Last Sunday, it departed from Novorossiysk, a major Russian port on the Black Sea, en route to Istanbul, according to maritime tracking data.
Kiev has previously targeted vessels it claims are involved in ‘shadow fleet’ operations. Ukrainian forces have also struck ships used by third parties transporting oil originating from Kazakhstan but routed through Novorossiysk via pipeline infrastructure.
Western countries that support Ukraine against Russia have in the past detained vessels suspected of being part of the network, sometimes holding them for extended periods. On Wednesday, the UK – described by Moscow as a key force behind the conflict – announced plans to use military means to intercept tankers linked to Russian oil shipments, as opposed to backing raids conducted by other nations.
Russia has condemned Ukraine’s actions as piracy carried out with Western backing. Some Russian officials have argued that NATO members are preparing a de facto naval blockade, warning that Moscow may be compelled to respond militarily.
Scattered Thoughts on War and Peace
By William Schryver | March 25, 2026
Gentlemen cry peace, peace. But there is no peace. The war has barely begun.
Though its position is untenable, the empire cannot slink away now.
As things stand, Iran et al. have won an overwhelming strategic victory. One that cannot be undone.
And everyone that matters in the world knows this to be true.
That said, a great many people have persuaded themselves that it is the mighty United States military that has achieved an overwhelming victory, and that the Iranians are an utterly “obliterated” foe.
And yet the Iranian missiles and drones keep their schedule, with only a fraction of the opposition they encountered in early March.
Israel — that vulnerable speck of a country — is getting pounded. Hard.
US/Israel air defenses have been reduced to a skeleton shambles.
The impressive Iranian defeat of US/Israeli radar capabilities is arguably the single most notable development so far in this war.
Meanwhile, the count of American manned aircraft downed by “technical problems” continues to grow, and Iran is shooting down more cruise missiles than they did early on.
Speaking of skeleton shambles, all the US bases in the region have been systematically degraded — some more than most.
The US Fifth Fleet has been effectively evicted from the Persian Gulf, and they won’t be coming back.
The USS Poopy Gerry, flagship of the US Navy, has now managed to limp back to Souda Bay to tally the damages, and determine whether or not she can make it all the way back to Norfolk without some tug boats standing by.
Watch and see: they’ll boldly claim they will have her “ready for action” in 18 months or so. But they won’t. And sometime in about 2030, an obscure Pentagon press release will announce that the star-crossed USS Gerald R. Ford, CVN-78, will be decommissioned, purchased by Baron Trump, and turned into a dockside casino.
Anyway, the Americans are convinced the Iranians are an easy mark to fall yet again for the “negotiation sneak attack” gambit.
I think it’s more likely the Iranians are worried the Americans will “chicken out” of their proclaimed intention to use “boots on the ground” to subdue Iran and achieve full control over the Strait of Hormuz.
I think the Iranians would like nothing more than for the US military to attempt a 10k soldier amphibious / airborne attack somewhere along the Iranian coastline — probably in conjunction with a half-dozen special forces raids at various “high-value” targets.
In any case, as two amphibious ready groups (4400 Marines) and an 82nd Airborne brigade combat team (3000 light infantry) continue to advance on the theater of battle, Washington is apparently going to send the mythically competent erstwhile invisible Vice President, the redoubtable young Achilles, JD Vance.
My sense is that Vance’s mission is an inherently disingenuous token gesture.
Vance will state the inherently unacceptable American terms; the Iranians will state theirs. Both sides will glare menacingly at each other, and fly back home.
The Iranians will continue to control Hormuz and launch drones and missiles throughout the region.
US troops will arrive on the scene, and barring some unlikely epiphany of reason, the Pentagon will launch an amphibious / airborne attack that will end in blood and ashes.
At least this is the trajectory of events as I currently perceive them to be.
Things could still go from bad to worse.
Iran Threatens to Close Red Sea to Shipping in Response to Invasion
By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | March 25, 2026
If the US invades Iran, Tehran will act through its allies in Yemen to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
“If the enemy wants to take action on land in the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our lands or to inflict costs on Iran with naval movements in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman,” an Iranian military official told the semi-official Tasnim News Agency. “We will open other fronts for them as a surprise so that their action will not only be of no benefit to them but will also double their costs.”
“The Bab al-Mandab Strait is considered one of the world’s strategic straits, and Iran has both the will and the ability to create a completely credible threat against it.” The official continued, “Therefore, if the Americans want to think of a solution for the Strait of Hormuz with stupid measures, they should be careful not to add another strait to their problems and predicaments.”
Northern Yemen is controlled by Ansar Allah, who are allied with Iran. So far, Sanaa has not intervened in the war that is raging across the Middle East.
Ansar Allah has proven the military capability to close the Red Sea to shipping and also to fight the American military. In response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza, Sanaa closed the Bab al-Mandab Strait to US and Israeli-linked shipping.
Both Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump attempted to break the blockade with massive bombing campaigns in Yemen. However, Ansar Allad was able to maintain the blockade while attacking Israel and US warships in the region with missiles and drones.
If Ansar Allah elects to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, it will add to the global economic crisis that was caused by the US and Israeli war against Iran. Since the surprise attack by the US and Israel on February 28, Tehran has significantly limited shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranian threat comes as the US is moving forces to the Middle East that could be involved in ground operations inside Iran.
Iran in excellent position to prevail in war with US, Israel: John Mearsheimer
Press TV – March 25,2026
Senior political scientist John Mearsheimer says Iran has a good chance of dominating the ongoing war with the United States and Israel given the way the Islamic Republic controls the economic repercussions of the conflict.
Speaking to Piers Morgan Uncensored, Mearsheimer said the US and Israel failed to achieve their objectives in the aggression on Iran, which was to decapitate the government and force Iranians to submit to their demands in the first two or three days of the war.
He said, however, that the war has continued for nearly a month and the Iranians are now in a better position to dictate their demands since they control the flow of oil and other energy products from the Persian Gulf to other parts of the world.
“What’s happened here is that we did not achieve a quick and decisive victory and we are now in a long war, a war of attrition, and that’s a war that the Iranians prepared for and that’s a war that the Iranians are in an excellent position to prevail in,” Mearsheimer said.
He said if the United States decides to further escalate the aggression, it could face devastating responses from Iran that affect not only regional countries and American bases they host but also the entire international economy.
“They have the ability to go up the escalation ladder and tank the international economy.”
Donald Trump, the president of the United States, said on March 24 that he was considering holding talks with Iran to end the ongoing confrontation which many believe has put him in a very precarious position.
That comes as he has repeatedly claimed victory since launching the joint aggression with Israel against Iran on February 28.
Iran has yet to accept the US request for negotiations as authorities have indicated that the country will continue its reprisal attacks on US and Israeli positions while controlling the flow of oil in the Persian Gulf to ultimately punish the aggressors.
Iran warns US: Do not call your retreat an agreement
Press TV – March 25, 2026
Spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari, says the strategic power that the enemy boasted about has “turned into a strategic defeat.”
“If the self-proclaimed superpower of the world could have escaped this predicament, it would have done so by now. Do not call your defeat an agreement,” he said on Wednesday.
This comes as US President Donald Trump backed away from his 48-hour ultimatum to strike Iran’s power plants after the Islamic Republic warned that all energy and power installations in the region would be targeted in retaliation.
Trump claimed in a post on his Truth Social media platform that the US and Iran have had “very good and constructive conversations over the past two days regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in [West Asia].”
A source familiar with internal discussions in Tehran said Monday that there has been no official contact between Tehran and Washington.
“The era of your promises is over. Today, there are only two fronts in the world: truth and falsehood. And every freedom-seeking pursuer of truth will not be deceived by your media waves,” Zolfaqari said.
The spokesman further questioned the extent of internal divisions among enemies, asking sarcastically, “Has the level of your infighting reached the point of negotiating with yourselves?”
Zolfaqari also delivered a stark assessment of regional economic prospects, asserting that neither past levels of US investments in the region nor previous energy and oil prices would return.
“Stability in the region is ensured by the powerful hand of our armed forces,” the spokesman said. “Stability through [our] power.”
He also made clear that no previous state of affairs would return unless “the very thought of taking [military] action against the Iranian nation is completely erased from your vile minds.”
“Our first and last word from day one has been, is, and will be: someone like us will not come to terms with someone like you—not now, and not ever,” he further said.
Neighbors first – Moscow signals shift in energy strategy
RT | March 25, 2026
Russia plans to prioritize energy exports to neighboring countries deemed less exposed to global disruptions, Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev has said.
Recent US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s response have shaken global oil and liquefied natural gas markets, disrupting supplies from the Persian Gulf and casting uncertainty over future production.
”The entire world will have to reevaluate supply chains and reassess risks,” Tsivilev told reporters on Wednesday. While Russia’s own exports have not been directly impacted by the Middle East crisis, the country will still adjust its strategy, he added.
“We will prioritize energy deliveries to our closest neighbors, with whom we share land borders and face fewer risks,” the minister said. “We will also reconsider the logistics of oil transportation.”
Shift away from ‘unreliable’ EU
Russia has long favored stable, long-term energy contracts, particularly through pipeline infrastructure, which historically underpinned its gas exports to Western Europe – even during the Cold War.
The European Union, however, has pushed for spot-market pricing, arguing that flexibility outweighs the risks of volatility. This disagreement contributed to tensions even before the bloc declared it would phase out Russian oil and gas imports following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.
Moscow has since labeled European buyers as unreliable and has been redirecting its long-term energy strategy toward Asian partners, especially neighboring China.
Bad timing for snubbing Russian oil
Western countries backing Kiev have sought to curb Russia’s energy revenues, including through measures such as a price cap on its oil exports. Moscow has responded by rerouting shipments via what critics have claimed is a ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers.
Ukraine has also targeted Russian oil and gas infrastructure and vessels suspected of carrying Russian hydrocarbons, including in international waters – which Moscow calls Western-enabled piracy.
The energy price shock caused by the Iran war is prompting neutral nations that previously accommodated the Western agenda to reconsider their approach.
On Tuesday, the Philippines, a traditional US ally, received its first shipment of Russian crude in years, local media reported. Around 100,000 tons of oil were delivered from the port of Kozmino, the export terminal of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline system. The fuel is intended for a refinery in Bataan province.
Brussels warns Slovakia over ‘discriminatory’ dual fuel pricing targeting foreign drivers
By Thomas Brooke | Remix News | March 25, 2026
The European Commission has warned Slovakia that its newly introduced dual diesel pricing system — charging foreign drivers more than locals — violates EU law, setting up a fresh clash with Prime Minister Robert Fico over energy policy.
The dispute centers on emergency measures adopted by the Slovak government on March 18, which impose a 30-day restriction on diesel refueling and introduce higher prices for vehicles with foreign license plates. The policy is aimed at curbing “fuel tourism,” as drivers from neighboring countries flock to Slovakia to take advantage of significantly lower diesel prices.
A spokesperson for the European Commission said the measures were “highly discriminatory and contrary to EU law,” stressing that member states cannot introduce pricing policies that differentiate based on nationality.
“While we understand the need to support citizens, especially in these times, measures must not discriminate on the basis of nationality or undermine the integrity of our single market,” the Commission said on Tuesday.
Brussels also cautioned against unilateral action, emphasizing that energy and market disruptions should be handled through coordinated EU-wide measures rather than national interventions.
The Slovak government has defended the policy, arguing it is necessary to protect domestic supply. As reported by Denník N, Fico said the decision was justified given the circumstances and expressed frustration at the Commission’s stance, suggesting Brussels had shown little understanding of Slovakia’s position.
The move comes amid mounting concerns over fuel shortages due to both the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine’s refusal to restart the transit of Russian crude to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline. The pipeline has been offline since January, leaving Slovakia facing potential supply constraints.
In response, Bratislava has sought to prioritize domestic consumers by limiting exports and discouraging foreign drivers from refueling within its borders. Under the new system, drivers with foreign plates are charged prices aligned with those in neighboring countries such as Austria and Poland, while Slovak residents continue to benefit from lower rates.
The price gap stems from Slovakia’s refinery sector, which has been selling diesel below broader European market levels, creating a strong incentive for cross-border fuel purchases.
The dispute also reflects broader tensions between Slovakia, Hungary, Ukraine, and Brussels over energy transit. Both Bratislava and Budapest have pushed Kyiv to restore flows through the Druzhba pipeline, while simultaneously blocking a proposed €90 billion EU financial package for Ukraine in ongoing negotiations.
The European Commission has offered to send technical experts and suggested EU funding could help cover repair costs, but no agreement has yet been reached.
Both governments in Hungary and Slovakia, however, have accused Brussels of hollow words, claiming the European Commission has sided with Ukraine over the EU member states. Hungary, in particular, believes the delay in restarting the transit is intended to influence next month’s critical parliamentary elections.
Hungary to halt gas deliveries to Ukraine – Orban
RT | March 25, 2026
Hungary will gradually halt natural gas deliveries to Ukraine until Kiev restores the flow of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has announced.
In a video posted to his Facebook page on Wednesday, Orban said that Ukraine has been blocking the operation of the Soviet-era oil pipeline for 30 days. “As long as Ukraine does not provide oil, it will not receive gas from Hungary,” he said.
Orban stated that gas that would have been sent to Ukraine will instead be stored in Hungarian facilities, adding that the move is necessary considering that Ukraine “is also attacking the southern gas pipeline that supplies Hungary,” referring to the TurkStream route that brings Russian gas to Hungary via Türkiye and the Balkans.
“We will defend Hungary’s energy security, the protected petrol price, and the reduced gas prices,” Orban declared. He said the country has so far been able to “successfully defend against Ukrainian blackmail” thanks to the protected price scheme, adding that Hungarians pay the lowest prices at gas stations in all of Europe.
Orban’s announcement comes amid a long-running energy dispute between Budapest and Kiev after Ukraine halted oil shipments through the Druzhba pipeline in late January, citing supposed damage from a Russian drone strike.
Moscow has denied the accusations while Hungary and Slovakia, both heavily reliant on the pipeline, have similarly doubted Kiev’s justification, accusing it of deliberately blocking the flow as political blackmail.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has said that satellite imagery shows the pipeline is fully operational and that Kiev’s refusal to allow a joint inspection proves the decision was political.
Budapest has retaliated by vetoing a €90 billion ($104 billion) EU loan for Ukraine, blocking a new round of sanctions against Russia, and opposing Kiev’s EU membership bid. Orban has said that Budapest will not back down until the pipeline restarts.
Embarrassing Pivot: U.S. considers dropping Iran oil sanctions amid war
By Alan MACLEOD | MintPress News | March 22, 2026
Forced into a humiliating U-turn amid a potential global economic meltdown, the Trump administration announced today that it may remove sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that the move to free up 140 million barrels of oil was aimed at preventing China gaining from the situation. “That’s about 10 days to two weeks of supply that the Iranians had been pushing out that would have all gone to China,” he said. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days as we continue this campaign.”
He also noted that the U.S. government was considering a unilateral release of its oil reserves, in order to calm the market, which has seen prices almost double from $53 per barrel in January to $97 today.
“When we go through, as we plan, to unsanction the Iranian oil, that oil will go up to a market price, and it will end up in places other than China. It can flow into Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, India, who have been good actors in this,” Bessent added.
No matter how the Trump administration spins their move, there is no doubt that this represents an embarrassing climb down – one which drew mockery on social media. “This is literally the dumbest war in human history. No hyperbole,” said Aaron Bastani of Novara Media. “Next up: US asks Iran to join anti-Iran coalition,” joked satirist Karl Sharro.
In response to U.S. and Israeli attacks that killed its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 2. The narrow sea passage between the Islamic Republic and Arabia is a major choke point of global trade, through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply flows.
The result has been economic and political pandemonium, which Trump administration officials appeared not to have anticipated. “Iran War Will Lower Energy Prices” ran the headline of a March 12 Wall Street Journal article penned by Peter Navarro, Trump’s Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing.
Trump appears to have believed that his Iran attack could be completed within hours, and with little blowback or fallout. Instead, the Islamic Republic has been able to hit American bases across the region, spread panic throughout the Gulf States, and create shockwaves in the global economy.
In response, Trump demanded his NATO and Asian allies come to his aid, and send their armed forces to the region to forcibly open the strait. Declaring it a “very small endeavor,” he stated:
“I really am demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory because it is the place from where they get their energy. And they should come and they should protect it. You could make the case that maybe we shouldn’t be here at all, because we don’t need it.”
Instead, however, his allies responded with a resounding “no.” “Canada is not participating in the offensive operations of Israel and the United States, and will not, ever,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was equally adamant; “This is not our war. We have not started it. What does Donald Trump expect a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful U.S. Navy cannot do?” he asked.
Most alarmingly for Trump, however, was the reaction from Belgian prime minister, Bart De Wever. In an interview with local newspaper, L’Echo, he stated that Washington’s Iran attacks will force Europe to come to a quick and independent agreement with Russia, in order to avoid financial ruin amid an impending energy crisis.
“We must normalize relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy. That is common sense,” he said, adding, “In private, European leaders agree with me, but no one dares to say it out loud. We must end the conflict in the interest of Europe, without being naïve towards Putin.”
Trump has said that he is not worried that this war will turn into another Vietnam. Yet, with oil prices surging, public resentment mounting, a global economy potentially on the brink, and key allies openly rebelling against his dictates, it is quite possible that this conflict could spiral out of Washington’s control and do similar damage to the American empire.
Strait Of Hormuz closure brings Empire to brink
By Kit Klarenberg | Al Mayadeen | March 24, 2026
Since the criminal Zionist-American war on Iran erupted, the Strait of Hormuz has remained stubbornly closed. Despite Donald Trump’s dire threats, Tehran has brought maritime traffic to a total standstill. The Empire has futilely scrambled to assemble an international coalition to reopen the economically vital waterway ever since, only to be rebuffed. NATO allies have been slammed for making a “foolish mistake”, by refusing to help militarily secure the Strait. In truth, there is no hope it can be forcibly reopened in the foreseeable future.
As Bloomberg reports, while discussions are ongoing among G7 members over potential methods of restarting trade in the Strait, the general consensus among US allies is this can’t happen until hostilities ease, or outright end. Bank of America’s head of research has ominously warned oil prices could rise above $200 per barrel “if disruptions persist for multiple months.” He forecast that if the Strait isn’t reopened within days, its closure could precipitate a global recession.
Tehran imposing a blockade on the Strait was absolutely inevitable, and widely predicted, in the event of war. Even if the conflict ends soon, lasting damage has already been inflicted in many economic spheres, and the effects will be increasingly felt by average citizens in the form of higher prices for essential goods. Global shipping has been thrown into disarray, with major logistics firms cancelling routes in West Asia, producing higher transport and insurance rates, and delays. Again, increased costs will be passed onto consumers.
In all, approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through the Strait annually, accounting for 20% of the world’s total oil supply. Iran’s blockade, coupled with Resistance strikes on refineries throughout the region, will cause lasting chaos in energy markets and impact availability for years to come. Yet, despite a preponderant mainstream focus on the implications of the Strait’s closure for oil and gas, many vital commodities underpinning the operation of major industries worldwide also regularly transit through in substantial quantities.
Their availability and cost is in some cases likewise wildly fluctuating, impacting agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and in turn many fields of everyday life for countless people. And this is only the beginning. Approximately one third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer supply passes through the Strait every year. Before the war, Gulf states ranked highly among international fertilizer suppliers. Up to 43% of global trade in urea – a fundamental component of food production – flowed from the region.
The price of urea can affect production costs by as much as 90%. Now spring is upon us, and planting season has commenced across the West, urea has abruptly become a scarce commodity. Many farmers are already operating without profit, and grave concerns about how long this can be sustained widely proliferate. The prospect of Western sanctions on Russia – a major producer of fertilizer – being lifted to ameliorate the market bedlam grows ever-more likely as time goes on.
Sulfur is a core element of fertilizer production, and pre-war, the Strait provided up to 45% of the world’s supply. As an essay by elite US military academy West Point cautioned on March 13th, the price of sulfur has to date surged 25%, “squeezing one of the most consequential inputs to modern industrial power.” Sulfuric acid is not only vital for basic economic functions, “but also modern warfighting.” In a bitter irony, the Strait of Hormuz’s blockade will cripple Washington’s defence industry – and ability to maintain its conflict with Iran:
“[Sulfur] is needed for everything from the copper in the American electrical grid to the semiconductors in precision-guided munitions… For military planners and strategists, the looming loss of sulfur is a pre-logistical crisis…Chemicals like sulfuric acid sit upstream of copper extraction, battery-material processing, and semiconductor fabrication, meaning they can determine whether the US military can maintain industrial base production of electrical and digital systems needed to sustain the fight as munitions are expended and combat losses mount.”
Copper provides the “clearest example” of why the Strait’s blockade is “a warfighting problem” of historic proportions for the Empire. The widely-used metal is “embedded in the transformers, motors, and communications hardware” enabling US bases “to operate and defense factories to function.” This quickly translates into “a readiness and resilience problem” for the military. It will take over 30,000 kilograms of copper to replace US radar systems destroyed by the Resistance in Bahrain and Qatar alone.
Iran controls Strait of Hormuz, dictates terms of war and peace as US excursion backfires
By Pravin Sawhney | Press TV | March 24, 2026
While the US and Israel started the new war in West Asia, it is Israel and Iran who, with clarity on their war objectives, are now pitted against one another.
Given this, two things are likely. One, notwithstanding President Donald Trump’s latest claim of negotiations, the war will not end anytime soon. Instead, it will escalate.
And two, since the world is multipolar, the regional geopolitics will no longer be the same.
Two regional fundamentals would be impacted: the control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the security arrangement between the US and GCC (Persian Gulf Cooperation Council) countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman), which delivered the petro dollars critical for stabilisation of the US economy and its great power status in the world.
Unmindful of the reality that the world is in a once-in-a-century change and that Iran would not bend despite decades of US sanctions, President Trump started this war as ‘an excursion’ as he himself put it. Trump was made to believe by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that, like Venezuela, Iran, with its senior leadership decapitated, would be an open and shut case.
Within, the wily Netanyahu knew that this would not happen, and that the decapitation would lead to a larger war, giving him greater control over the US military to achieve his war objectives, including the so-called “regime change”.
Fully aware that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of war, Netanyahu publicly gave out the alternative, which, by the land route through Saudi Arabia, would come to Israel and onto Europe through the Mediterranean Sea.
With this approach, only the Asian countries would need to use the Hormuz.
To escalate the war, Israel hit Iran’s South Pars gas field, with the retaliation coming on the energy infrastructure of Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and especially the Israeli Haifa oil refinery, whose incapacitation would lead to a shortage of fuel for Israel’s war machinery.
Moreover, once the US and Israel struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, Tehran hit Israel’s Dimona town, which houses its nuclear plant, with the warning that if Iran’s nuclear facilities are hit again, then Iran’s strike would be on Dimona itself.
This was Israel’s red line, since in no war has the Dimona nuclear facility been touched.
Iran’s warning also serves the purpose of testing Israel’s nuclear deterrence. For instance, if Israel decides to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities again, with reprisal coming from Iran, then the region would be watching what Israel would do: would it use its nukes or keep quiet, in which case its nuclear bluff would be called off.
Meanwhile, Iran had been preparing for this war since 1988, when its eight-year war with Iraq ended. This includes building underground missile and drone cities, setting up production lines, and preparing regional allies like Houthis and Hezbollah. Enormous help came from Russia and China for its military preparations.
Moreover, Iran learnt the right lessons from the 12-day war of June 2025. Notable amongst them switching to the Chinese Baidu-3 satellite constellation by abandoning the US’s GPS. This explains why, unlike the 12-day war, this time the targeting of Iranian missiles and drones at long ranges has been accurate.
Special attention was given to the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, including the Strait of Hormuz. This entire stretch is laced with formidable undersea capabilities comprising anti-ship cruise missiles, different types of naval mines, midget submarines that can fire both missiles and torpedoes, and fast crafts capable of hitting the hull of tankers.
Because of these, Iran now controls the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has called upon the NATO nations to help the US Navy break Iran’s stranglehold on the oil and gas lifeline, which these nations, understanding the suicidal nature of the task, have refused.
This has created an unforeseen dilemma for Trump, where, on the one hand, it cannot declare victory and leave the region since Iran, controlling this waterway, is regulating the commercial traffic on its terms.
The latter involves countries that use this chokepoint to trade their cargo in Chinese Yuan instead of the US dollar. This would end the US Petro dollar arrangement with GCC, where they sell oil and gas only in US dollars and get the US security by having their bases on its soil.
On the other hand, with the end of petrodollars, the US will not be able to manage its huge national debt of USD 40 trillion, leading to economic instability in the US and curtailing its ability to sustain some 800 military bases across the globe.
This would be the end of the US as the world’s military hegemon.
To top it all, Iran has refused the American offer of a ceasefire. It instead wants permanent peace in West Asia with a list of demands, the most significant being that the US close down all its military bases in the region.
Moreover, the US is realising that all its threats to blow up Iran’s power grids and services, which impact civilian life, are not working.
Iran has warned that it would retaliate with similar actions against all GCC nations and Israel, where the interceptors to stop the Iranian wave of missiles are not working.
Israel, which instigated this war, is on the backfoot and the US’ excursion has backfired with grave consequences to its image as a great power.
As things stand, Iran is dictating the terms of both war and peace in West Asia.
Pravin Sawhney is a New Delhi-based journalist and commentator. He is the editor of FORCE, a magazine focused on national security and defence.
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From the Archives
A short history of British torture
ICC | December 2005
When the House of Commons was debating how much to increase the time limit for detention without trial the question of torture came up. Officially this was limited to the nice considerations of whether it was all right to send people to places where torture is used and whether Britain can use information collected by the use of torture in other countries. This discussion gave an impression of democratic Britain as the home of civilised behaviour where the very idea of torture is repugnant to our legislators – unlike, say, the US with its secret CIA jails… In reality, the British state has a long history of using and developing a whole range of torture techniques. … continue
Blog Roll
Aletho News- Iran spent $1 million to wipe out $30 billion in data center plans, and take down Amazon in the ME
- Zionist billionaire pressure to silence Macklemore sparks exodus from Ed Sheeran tour
- House Votes to End Iran War for Third Time
- North Korea Slams US Plan for ‘AUKUS 2.0’ with South Korea and Japan
- Prolonging US-Iran Conflict Not Meeting Interests of Int’l Community – China’s Wang Yi
- EU bans former Zelensky aide from parliament
- NATO-backed Kosovo separatist ‘responsible for war crimes’
- US destroying international space law
- SCO Calls for Binding Global Deal to Prevent Arms Race in Space
- Iran & Its Allies Are Threatening Every Route for Saudi Oil
- If Americans Knew
- Tucker Carlson interviews Norman Finkelstein about Gaza
- Groups urge Americans to support Van Hollen legislation on Israel’s killing of Americans & Palestinians
- Trump administration plans to send 40,000 tons of bombs to Israel: report
- Sanctions Target Iran’s Government, But Kill Hospitalized 23-Year-Old Woman
- An alternative view on the book “Israel’s Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power”
- Ed Sheeran’s band Beoga, other opening acts quit tour after Macklemore was dropped over his pro-Palestinian comments
- The assassination attempt on President Trump in Butler and the various Israeli connections to it
- “We Want That the Whole Land Be Jewish”
- BREAKING: Building collapse in Gaza kills at least 20 as they sleep – Daily Update
- ‘School is Life’: 1.5 Million Palestinian Children Face Fourth Year of Shattered Education
- No Tricks Zone
- Economic Masterminds: German Socialists Suggest Taxing Productivity Gains Stemming From Using AI
- The South China Sea Has Not Been Cooperating With The Climate Change Narrative
- Energy Crisis: Germany Enters Heating Season With Historically Low Gas Reserve Fill Levels
- New Study: The Antarctic Ice Sheet Gained Mass From 2020-2024 Due To Staggering Snow And Ice Accumulation
- Study: Ocean Heating Rates From Thousands Of Years Ago ‘Dwarf’ Modern Ocean Heating Rates
- Climate Extremists Target, Attack Large-Scale Power Grid Infrastructure In Germany!
- New Study: Antarctic Ice Melt Has Contributed Less Than 1 Centimeter To Sea Level Rise In The Last 30 Years
- Fear Of Debate: Alarmist German Climate Scientist Calls On Mainstream Media To Discredit Skeptic Voices
- End-Of-August Arctic Sea Ice Extent Hasn’t Fallen In 20 Years, Official Data Show!
- News-Making Nepal Region Has Had As-Warm Or Warmer Periods Than The 2000s In The 1600s, 1700s, 1800s
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