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BREAKING: US JET SHOT DOWN OVER IRAN /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Nima Alkhorshid

Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – April 3, 2026

Prof. Ted Postol: Iran Already Achieved NUCLEAR DETERRENCE Against Israel

Dialogue Works | April 3, 2026

April 4, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism, Video, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on BREAKING: US JET SHOT DOWN OVER IRAN /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Nima Alkhorshid

Official reveals evidence of Arab states’ involvement in US-Israeli war on Iran

Press TV – April 3, 2026

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has revealed hard evidence on the involvement of some Persian Gulf Arab states in the unprovoked US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic.

In a post on social media platform X on Friday, Baghaei published photos of a drone, which was shot down in southern Iran on Thursday, noting that only two regional states possess this drone, without naming them.

“This drone was downed by our brave armed forces over the beloved city of Hafiz and Saadi, Shiraz,” he said, referring to the two prominent Persian poets.

“It could be another (hard) evidence of direct participation and active complicity of some states of the region in US-Israel crime of aggression and war crimes against Iran,” Baghaei said.

The spokesman demanded “clarification” by “either of the TWO STATES of the region that are the users of this drone!”

The downed drone initially appeared to be an American MQ-9. However, military experts say it is actually a Wing Loong-2 drone, which is operated by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Last month, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran’s neighboring countries should “promptly” clarify their position regarding their role in the “slaughter” of Iranian civilians by the Israeli regime and the United States.

In a post on his X account in mid-March, Araghchi said hundreds of Iranian civilians, including children, have been killed in Israel-US bombings.

“Reports claim that some neighboring states that host US forces and permit attacks on Iran are also actively encouraging this slaughter,” the top Iranian diplomat stated.

He said positions should be promptly clarified on the mass killing of Iranian civilians.

The US and Israel started the latest round of unlawful military aggression on Iran on February 28, some eight months after they carried out unprovoked attacks on the country.

The attacks led to the martyrdom of Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and hundreds of Iranian civilians, including women and children, as well as several senior military commanders.

Iran has carried out extensive retaliatory attacks on US assets in the region and on locations in the Israeli-occupied territories since the very first day of the US–Israeli aggression.

The Islamic Republic says it respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors and that its reprisal attacks are directed at US assets and bases on their soil.

It has also warned regional countries not to allow their territory to be used for attacks against Iran.

April 3, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, War Crimes, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Official reveals evidence of Arab states’ involvement in US-Israeli war on Iran

UN vote on Hormuz force delayed as Iran issues warning

Al Mayadeen | April 3, 2026

The United Nations Security Council on Friday postponed a vote on a draft resolution authorizing force in the Strait of Hormuz, as divisions deepen among major powers amid the ongoing war on Iran.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned ahead of the session that any move within the Council could escalate tensions further. “Any provocative action by the aggressors and their supporters, including in the UN Security Council regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, will only complicate the situation,” he said.

The vote, initially scheduled for today, concerned a Bahrain-led proposal that would allow the use of “defensive” force to protect commercial shipping in the strategic waterway. The measure is backed by the United States and several Gulf states, which have been heavily impacted by the disruption of maritime traffic.

However, the session was delayed with no new date announced. Russia, China, and France have raised objections to earlier drafts, particularly over language that could authorize military action, warning that such steps risk widening the war.

Diplomatic wrangling has already forced Bahrain to revise the proposal multiple times. Earlier versions reportedly included language permitting “all necessary means,” a formulation commonly interpreted as allowing military force, before being scaled back under pressure from opposing members.

The evolving text has been repeatedly watered down in an effort to avoid a veto, shifting from explicit authorization of force toward more limited “defensive” measures, with additional conditions on how any action would be carried out.

Despite backing the broader push led by Bahrain and the United States, France has played a more complex role in negotiations. Paris has participated in drafting efforts while also resisting stronger provisions, joining Russia and China in blocking earlier versions of the resolution during the so-called “silence procedure”, effectively preventing its automatic adoption.

At the same time, France has pushed for de-escalation and a delayed or limited mandate instead of immediate authorization of force, amid concerns that military action would further destabilize the situation.

The dispute unfolds against the backdrop of a severe crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, driven by Iranian restrictions imposed in retaliation for US-Israeli aggression. The resulting disruption to tanker traffic has triggered a major shock to global energy markets.

Despite the military buildup, Iran has maintained a controlled approach to maritime transit, allowing selective passage for non-hostile states while restricting vessels linked to the United States, “Israel,” and their allies.

April 3, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , , | Comments Off on UN vote on Hormuz force delayed as Iran issues warning

Trump and the debris of Iran war

US President Donald Trump shared a video of Iran’s B1 bridge, billed as the country’s tallest bridge, collapsing after US air strike, April 3, 2026
By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | April 3, 2026

The only clue the US President Donald Trump has given in his prime time televised speech on Wednesday at the White House regarding the ending of his war in Iran is that the core “objectives are nearing completion” and that he is “very close” to finishing the war.

The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy “bridges next, then electric power plants”. 

Revealing himself primarily as YHWH (Yahweh) in the Old Testament — the personal, holy, and covenant-making Creator who demands exclusive worship from Israel — Trump thundered, “Over the next two to three weeks, we are going to bring them [Iranians] back to the Stone Ages, where they belong” . 

Yet, Iran is in no mood to surrender. Tehran has lost respect for Trump and instead sees him as a master craftsman of the art of deception. The Iranian statements underscore that the US intelligence lacks even the foggiest idea of its capabilities to retaliate. 

Perhaps, the most vicious no-holds-barred phase of the war is about to begin, with a dynamics of its own — in particular, taking into account the Israel factor, which is a revisionist power seeking to alter the established international order, rules, territorial boundaries or distribution of power in the West Asian region to better serve the establishment of a Zionist state of Greater Israel. 

Israel is keeping its options open to further territorial expansion, the latest evidence being the assault on Lebanon and its back-tracking from US-backed negotiations with Syria. Unsurprisingly, Iran insists that any peace deal must encompass all issues of regional stability and security. 

Wars have consequences. They leave behind a lot of debris. But this is not about Iran’s reconstruction alone for which of course, it is legitimately seeking war reparations and a security guarantee.

The bottom line is, after creating new facts on the ground, Trump may simply walk away to the golf course. The most consequential new reality is that the Strait of Hormuz is transforming as a waterway. 

By coincidence, the first reaction to Trump’s address on Wednesday came from the global oil market, as prices of rose to $105 per barrel. The Oil Price magazine which provides forward-looking intelligence  for energy traders and investment professionals was spot on in its prognosis that “Long-suffering energy investors finally have a reason to smile, with the sector on track to outperform the broader market by its widest margin on record, driven by Middle East conflict … The energy sector’s 14-week winning streak far exceeds previous bull runs. 

“Oil & Gas stocks have easily outpaced the erstwhile high-flying tech sector… Leading the charge are U.S. oil majors” — Exxon Mobil returned 33.1% YTD; Chevron Corp (28.5%); Occidental Petroleum (49.6%); ConocoPhillips (38.5%); Marathon Petroleum (43.8%). Wall Street must be feeling elated. 

According to Financial Times:

“[US War Secretary] Pete Hegseth’s broker at Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock in February to make a multimillion-dollar investment in a defence-focused Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) called IDEF.

“This $3.2 billion fund is built around companies that benefit from increased military spending, including RTX, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Palantir — all major Pentagon contractors.

“The request came just weeks before the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, a campaign Hegseth helped shape and strongly supported within the Trump administration.”

Larry Johnson, who worked in the CIA and is by far one of the best American commentators on Trump’s war (and geopolitics in general), wrote a blog this week titled Who Else, Besides Pete Hegseth, is Trying to Use the War in Iran to Get Rich? To quote him, “If you do the analysis on the weapons expended so far in the month-long war with Iran, the opportunity for war profiteering is quite clear… The high expenditure rates, combined with historically low peacetime production [of weaponry] have created a serious “race of attrition” that cannot be quickly reversed.” 

Johnson flagged as example that both Patriot and THAAD interceptors are primarily manufactured by Lockheed Martin. He adds, “Which means that Lockheed Martin can expect a major influx of cash to boost production and try to replenish exhausted missile air defence inventories. I wonder who else in the Trump administration and the US Congress are making money off this bloody war?” 

Setting aside the sleaze and corruption endemic to America’s wars, like night follows the day, the single new fact on the ground today that has explosive potential and can bring the roof down on the international financial system is the terrible beauty about the Strait of Hormuz as Iran decided to control the use of the waterway by outsiders in war conditions, which is nothing unusual (eg., Straits of Bosphorus which Turkey and Russia control.)  

Since the waterway passes through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, these two countries are entitled to have a say in the regime of maritime traffic in war conditions. It’s a legitimate demand. Nonetheless, Iran is showing flexibility by allowing traffic by “benign” vessels not linked to the two enemy countries, US and Israel. It stands to reason that this flexibility will eventually transform in a post-war scenario into a rational, efficient, secure regime. 

Meanwhile, the cascading price of oil has the potential to impact the world economy. Since petrodollar recycling is also involved, this will hit international finance as well — the western banking system in particular —  unless it is resolved quickly, smoothly and peacefully with the consent of Iran and Oman. Trump has tactfully made it the concern of Europeans and the Gulf Arab states, the US’ partners in crime in petrodollar recycling who help prop up the dollar as “world currency.” 

Hopefully, India’s stance, as articulated by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri at a meeting hosted in London yesterday, provides a ramp that can be the basis of a permanent solution — namely, “the way out of the crisis consisted of de-escalation and a return to the path of diplomacy and dialogue among all concerned parties.” 

Notably, India did not sign up to the meeting’s final statement which expressed readiness by participants to contribute to “appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.” Meanwhile, India’s direct talks with Tehran have been productive and yielded positive results.    

April 3, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Militarism, War Crimes, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Trump and the debris of Iran war

Bombing Iran Back Into the Stone Age /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Jim Jatras

Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – April 2, 2026

April 2, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, Video | , , , | Comments Off on Bombing Iran Back Into the Stone Age /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Jim Jatras

Wave 90: IRGC strikes US-linked industrial sites in Gulf

Al Mayadeen | April 2, 2026

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) carried out a large-scale missile and drone operation targeting US-linked industrial and military sites across the Gulf, as part of the 90th wave of Operation True Promise 4.

The operation was launched by the IRGC Aerospace Force and the IRGC Navy in response to US aggression targeting Iran’s steel industry, which killed and injured multiple workers.

“We dedicate this operation to the families of the oppressed martyred workers and warn the delusional American president to refrain from repeating threats that could escalate the war beyond the region and make the world unsafe for America,” the IRGC underlined.

According to the statement, the operation targeted US steel and aluminum industries based in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, as well as facilities in Bahrain.

The strikes also hit remaining operational sections of US aluminum facilities that had not been damaged in previous attacks, in addition to sites linked to the Israeli military industries company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and a hideout of US forces near the Bahraini capital, Manama.

The statement confirmed that key sections of these sites were destroyed.

Casualties among US forces

The operation resulted in dozens of US personnel killed and wounded, according to the statement, with targeted areas immediately sealed off while ambulances continued evacuating casualties for hours.

The strikes unfolded in continuous waves, which began before dawn.

Iran stressed that the attack serves as a warning, affirming that any renewed aggression against its industrial sector will be met with a far more severe response. It warned that future operations could target critical infrastructure of the Israeli occupation and US economic interests across the region.

“These attacks are a warning, and if attacks on Iranian industries are repeated, the next response will be much more painful with attacks on the main infrastructure of the occupying regime (“Israel”) and American economic industries in the region,” the IRGC said.

Second phase of Wave 90

In an update released on Thursday afternoon, the IRGC said that its strikes also targeted major Israeli airbases, including the Tel Nof Airbase, the Palmachim Airbase, and the Ben Gurion Airport, a section of which is being used for aerial refueling operations.

The IRGC dedicated the second wave to Iranian citizens targeted by US-Israeli bombardment, saying that this set of strikes was in direct response to crimes committed by both regimes. The strikes also targeted Israeli occupation forces’ sites in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Eilat, al-Naqab, and Bir al-Sabe’. In the Gulf, the IRGC struck the Ahmad al-Jaber Airbase and the Ali al-Salem Airbases in Kuwait and the al-Kharj Airbase in Saudi Arabia.

Ballistic missiles, carrying heavy payloads, and one-way attack drones were utilized in the attacks.

According to the statement, another early warning radar, deployed in the al-Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, was also hit and destroyed.

April 2, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Wave 90: IRGC strikes US-linked industrial sites in Gulf

Iran Says US-Israeli Claims of Its Military Strength Are Wrong

Sputnik – 02.04.2026

TEHRAN – The US and Israeli assessment of Iran’s military capabilities is inaccurate, Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesman for the Khatam Al-Anbiya central headquarters of the Iranian military command, said on Thursday amid claims by US President Donald Trump that Iran no longer posed a threat.

“Your information about Iran’s capabilities and military might, as well as our weapons, is incorrect. You do not know anything about our huge strategic potential,” Zolfaghari was quoted as saying by the Iranian state-run broadcaster IRIB.

The facilities destroyed during the attacks by the US and Israel were “nothing,” and the strategic facilities of the defense industry are located in places unknown to Washington, which “it cannot reach,” the spokesman added.

Zolfaghari also warned that the US and Israel should prepare for more powerful and large-scale strikes than before.

April 2, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , | Comments Off on Iran Says US-Israeli Claims of Its Military Strength Are Wrong

Trump’s April Fools’ Address to the nation

By Kelley Beaucar Vlahos | Responsible Statecraft | April 1, 2026

Washington was literally sizzling Wednesday with expectations ahead of President Donald Trump’s evening address on Iran. Would he announce a ceasefire? Would he just declare the war over, wash his hands of the mess, and leave the Strait of Hormuz to the Persian Gulf and Europe? What about a full land invasion?

Turns out he did none of that — except maybe the part about the Strait, but we’ll get to that in a second.

Trump gave a speech that analyst Dan DePetris noted should have been delivered before launching the attacks on Iran on Feb. 28. He spent much of the approximately 15 minutes building a case for bombing the hell out of Tehran for the last 30 days. “The most violent and thuggish regime on Earth,” it “continued their relentless quest for nuclear weapons and rejected every attempt at an agreement.” The U.S. had no choice. “We took them out. We took them all out so that no one would really dare stop them. And their race for a nuclear bomb, a nuclear weapon, a nuclear weapon like nobody has ever seen before, they were right at the doorstep.” He went on:

“Our objectives are very simple and clear. We are systematically dismantling the regime’s ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders. That means eliminating Iran’s Navy, which is now absolutely destroyed, hurting their air force and their missile program at levels never seen before, and annihilating their defense industrial base. We’ve done all of it. Their Navy is gone, their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten. Taken together. These actions will cripple Iran military, crush their ability to support terrorist proxies and deny them the ability to build a nuclear bomb. Our armed forces have been extraordinary. There’s never been anything like it. Militarily, everyone is talking about it, and tonight, I’m pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion.”

So the war is over right? Wrong. According to Trump the U.S. military has “crushed” Iran, but it’s not finished. “Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong. In the meantime, discussions are ongoing.” (As they say on social media, tell us Iran is fighting back without telling us Iran is fighting back.)

Again, Trump erroneously noted that while he didn’t want regime change “they’re all dead” and the “the new group is less radical and much more reasonable.” He said in his “two to three week” timetable, “if during this period of time… If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously. We have not hit their oil, even though that’s the easiest target of all, because it would not give them even a small chance of survival or rebuilding. But we could hit it and it would be gone. And there’s not a thing they could do about it.”

Iran can retaliate by hitting oil and energy plants in the region harder, but to mention that would say out loud that the Iranians can still fight and are not playing by our rules. Instead, he said not to worry about the high gasoline prices or the oil shortages; we don’t get our oil from the Persian Gulf, and we’ll get more from Venezuela anyway. As for all of the other global commerce which includes almost everything in our current supply chains, he was non-committal to opening up the Strait of Hormuz by force. In an auspicious twist, he put it on everyone else to open the Strait.

“So to those countries that can’t get fuel, many of which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran. We had to do it ourselves. I have a suggestion. Number one, buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty. We have so much,” he said. “And number two, build up some delayed courage. Should have done it before. Should have done it with us, as we asked, go to the Strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done, so it should be easy, and in any event, when this conflict is over, the Strait will open up naturally.”

Comparing the 30-day war to the length of the Korean War, Iraq, and World War I, Trump reached for a way to scold Americans for getting antsy but it somehow came off as boasting as though he could completely destroy an enemy in a much lesser time. “(The world) just can’t believe what they’re seeing… the brilliance of the United States military.”

What the world is seeing is this “decimated” Iran hitting targets across the Persian Gulf and in Israel consistently, all the way through the speech, according to Al Jazeera news. The price of oil is up, partners across the region are curtailing energy use and anticipating food shortages. This will hit American households no matter what Trump says. The war is not over not because he says so but because Iran has not given Trump the clear victory he wants. Tonight he clearly threatened more escalation, but it was not as defined as an announced land invasion. He all but said the Strait was not worth it.

Nor did he unilaterally “declare victory” to save face. He did not mention Israel once, but one could sense its influence in every line. Trump says he is going to “finish it” and “fast.” Unrelenting, unspecified violence. Anyone looking for more than that turned out to be an April Fool.

April 2, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Trump’s April Fools’ Address to the nation

Defeated and delusional: Netanyahu’s remarks reveal $80bn war failure, says analyst

Press TV – April 1, 2026

Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent statements on Iran, claiming that it no longer poses an existential threat to the regime is a complete strategic failure that suggests he is leaving office “defeated,” says an analyst.

Patricia Marins, a Brazilian military analyst, in a post on X on Thursday, characterized Netanyahu’s remarks not as a sign of strength, but as the ultimate admission of failure.

“There is nothing more defeatist than this. It is 100% defeatist rhetoric,” Marins said.

Her critique centers on the unfulfilled war objectives that Netanyahu himself had laid out.

According to Marins, he had consistently articulated three primary goals regarding Iran: regime change, limiting Iran’s missile capabilities, and dismantling its nuclear program.

“He has achieved none of these objectives,” Marins stated.

Instead, she maintained, the war has saddled Israel with staggering economic damage.

Marins cited operational costs and broader economic losses to paint a picture of a war that has yielded no strategic gains at a prohibitive financial price.

“He has saddled Israel with $60-80 billion in losses from this war,” she said, breaking down the daily expenditures. “Each day of operations, including interceptors and material damage, costs between $1.5-2 billion, based on the spending during the 12-day war.”

She noted that the full scope of the damage is still being calculated, with thousands of compensation claims already filed for direct damage caused by Iranian missile attacks.

The analyst said the Israeli ministry of finance estimates the broader economic loss at $3 billion per week.

Marins framed the outcome as a direct consequence of what she called Netanyahu’s “megalomania,” noting that his approach has created more problems than solutions.

The analyst suggested that Israel’s aggressive posture may have backfired strategically regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

“If the Iranians hadn’t built a nuclear weapon before, now they have every reason to do so,” Marins said.

April 1, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism | , , , | Comments Off on Defeated and delusional: Netanyahu’s remarks reveal $80bn war failure, says analyst

Iran’s friends are about to make life much more difficult for Israel and the US

By Murad Sadygzade | RT | April 1, 2026

The war’s second ‘ring of fire’ is no longer forming around Iran. It is already there. What we are witnessing is not a limited clash between a state under pressure and its immediate enemies, but the gradual emergence of a wider regional confrontation in which Tehran’s allied forces are moving from symbolic solidarity to practical engagement.

In Lebanon, Iraq, and now once again in Yemen, groups aligned with Iran are opening new fronts and making any American or Israeli campaign far more difficult to execute. If Iran cannot stop pressure by matching superior military power plane for plane or missile for missile, it can still answer by stretching the battlefield across time and space.

That is the real significance of the current escalation. Wars are easiest to sell and easiest to sustain when they look concentrated, technically manageable, and politically clean. They become much harder to continue when every strike produces another zone of instability, when every advance prompts retaliation, and when every promise of decisive success runs into a new and costly complication.

Iran and the forces loyal to it understand this perfectly well. Their goal is not necessarily to win a spectacular conventional victory over Israel or the US. They are trying to deprive their adversaries of a quick result, to turn military superiority into strategic over-extension, and to make the price of escalation rise with every passing week.

Israel is getting mired in Lebanon

Lebanon has become the clearest example of this dynamic. Israel entered the confrontation with Hezbollah expecting that greater firepower, harsher pressure, and deeper incursions would eventually impose a new reality in the south of the country. But so far the campaign has not produced the kind of result Israeli leaders would need in order to claim genuine success. Israeli officials are still speaking openly about expanding operations and about the need for a broad security zone in southern Lebanon. That does not sound like a completed military mission. It sounds like a campaign still searching for a workable outcome.

Israel remains capable of inflicting enormous damage on Lebanon. It can devastate border villages and infrastructure, and force large numbers of people from their homes. But the ability to destroy is not the same as the ability to impose control. A military campaign can appear overwhelming on television and still fail to neutralize the armed force it was meant to break. Hezbollah remains capable of hitting Israeli territory, and that single fact tells us that the war in Lebanon has not been resolved in Israel’s favor.

Israel is also suffering losses, not only in military terms but in political and psychological terms. Reports of fallen soldiers and continuing battlefield casualties show that Hezbollah is still able to turn southern Lebanon into a dangerous combat zone for the Israeli army. This is important because Israel’s military doctrine relies heavily on speed, on offensive initiative, and on the demonstration of dominance. A campaign that drags on, consumes manpower, exposes soldiers to attrition, and leaves northern Israel under continuing threat is not simply unfinished. It becomes strategically corrosive. It undermines the image of effortless superiority on which deterrence partly depends.

There is also the issue of equipment and operational pressure. Public claims about destroyed Israeli vehicles are often difficult to verify independently, and any serious analysis should avoid repeating battlefield propaganda as fact. But even without dramatic and unverifiable numbers, the broader reality is evident.

Hezbollah continues to create an environment in which Israeli ground operations are costly, risky, and politically burdensome. Israel may seize or enter territory, but it still has not demonstrated that it can transform that presence into a stable and secure military arrangement. As long as Hezbollah keeps imposing losses on Israel, the campaign remains strategically incomplete.

Hezbollah is demonstrating to the entire pro-Iranian regional camp that Israel can be denied a clean military outcome. That message matters in Iraq, in Yemen, and in every arena where forces aligned with Tehran are watching closely. Every week in which Hezbollah continues to strike back weakens the notion that Israel and the US can simply pummel the region into submission through superior firepower. That perception encourages allied groups to escalate because it suggests that resistance is not futile and that prolonged confrontation can produce strategic leverage, even against a stronger opponent.

Iraqi fighters activate

Iraq is the second arena where this logic is becoming visible. For years, Washington tried to handle pro-Iranian armed groups in Iraq through a familiar formula of pressure, selective strikes, deterrent warnings, and political bargaining. That formula is now under severe strain. The Iraqi factions loyal to Iran are again attacking Western interests and American-linked facilities, and their posture is hardening as the regional crisis grows. Any American move toward direct ground involvement against Iran would not remain confined to Iranian territory. It would immediately activate the Iraqi theatre in a much more serious way.

That possibility is now being discussed with increasing seriousness because Iraqi armed groups are presenting themselves as a reserve force that could mobilize in Iran’s favor if the war enters a more dangerous phase. This is not yet a mass transnational deployment on a scale that would determine the outcome of a large war by itself. But that is not the most important issue. The key point is that the Iraqi arena is being prepared politically, organizationally, and psychologically as an extension of the Iranian front. If Washington were to attempt a ground operation against Iran, it would face not one battlefield but several at once.

Washington appears to have assumed that by concentrating military pressure on Iran, it could either isolate Tehran or intimidate its regional allies into caution. But the opposite dynamic is taking shape. Pressure on the center is activating the periphery. Iran’s allies do not need to defeat the US or Israel in direct set-piece battles – only to ensure that no front can be fully closed, no rear area can be treated as safe, and no military plan can be presented as limited and controllable. That alone is enough to alter the political mathematics of war.

The Iraqi dimension is especially dangerous because it sits at the intersection of military operations, internal state weakness, and competing sovereignties. Iraq is not a sealed theatre. It is a country in which militias, parties, foreign forces, and state institutions coexist uneasily. Any renewed cycle of attacks on Western targets can therefore produce consequences far beyond the immediate strike. It can reignite internal tensions, weaken already fragile governance, increase pressure on the Iraqi government, and deepen the long-running struggle over whether Iraq is a sovereign balancing state or a contested zone inside a larger regional conflict. Once that process begins to accelerate, it becomes very difficult to contain.

Yemeni Houthis can shock the global economy

Yet the most strategically explosive development may be the renewed role of Ansar Allah (the Houthis) in Yemen. For nearly a month, the movement was relatively restrained in this specific phase of escalation. That relative quiet led some observers to believe that Yemen might remain a secondary theatre while events centered on Iran, Lebanon, and the Gulf. But this reading now looks premature. Ansar Allah has signaled a return to direct action against Israel, and even more importantly, it has once again raised the specter of pressure on maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

That threat cannot be dismissed as rhetorical theater. Bab el-Mandeb is one of the great chokepoints of the global economy. It connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, which means it is part of the shortest maritime route between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal. If this corridor becomes unsafe on a sustained basis, the consequences extend far beyond the region. Shipping companies reroute. Insurance premiums surge. Delivery times lengthen. Fuel costs rise. Supply chains absorb new friction. The shock travels outward through freight markets, commodity prices, and industrial planning. In the modern world, a narrow stretch of water can become a multiplier of global instability.

This is why even the threat of closure is almost as bad as closure itself. Markets do not wait patiently for a waterway to be blocked in definite terms before reacting. They respond to risk. If Ansar Allah signals that ships tied to Israel or to its supporters may face attack, and if the movement demonstrates that this threat is credible, then the commercial effect begins long before a formal blockade exists. Some carriers will avoid the route. Others will demand sharply higher rates. Naval escorts may become more common. A military problem turns into a commercial one, and a commercial problem soon becomes a macroeconomic one.

A serious disruption in Bab el-Mandeb would also hit the Gulf states in complicated ways. On the surface, high oil prices often appear beneficial for energy exporters. But in wartime the picture is much less straightforward. Gulf monarchies depend not only on price levels but also on predictable flows, secure shipping, investor confidence, infrastructure safety, and the broader perception that the region remains a viable center for trade and finance. A war that pushes up energy prices while simultaneously making maritime transit less secure can produce gains on one side and losses on the other. It can raise revenue while also raising risk. It can improve the price per barrel while damaging the political and logistical environment needed to move that barrel efficiently.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in particular would face a difficult balancing act. Both states have tried to reduce their exposure to open-ended regional wars while preserving close security relationships with Washington. But a wider confrontation involving Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and Israel would undermine that balancing strategy. Even if they avoid direct military participation, they remain physically embedded in the conflict zone. Their ports, export routes, desalination infrastructure, airports, and industrial facilities exist within missile and drone range of hostile actors. In other words, geography limits neutrality. The Gulf states can try to hedge politically, but they cannot fully hedge physically.

A regional war goes global

The effects on the global economy could be severe if this pattern continues. The most obvious risk is a combined shock to energy and logistics. If pressure on the Strait of Hormuz coincides with renewed disruption in Bab el-Mandeb, the world economy would face stress on two of its most sensitive arteries at once. Oil prices would rise not simply because of lost supply, but because of fear, insurance costs, and the scarcity premium that always appears when multiple chokepoints are threatened simultaneously. Gas markets would become more nervous. Shipping costs would climb. Import-dependent economies would feel the squeeze first, especially poorer countries already vulnerable to debt, inflation, and food insecurity.

This is how regional wars become global economic events. They do not need to shut every route completely or destroy every refinery to trigger wider consequences. They only need to make enough critical routes uncertain at the same time. Once uncertainty spreads across energy and transport, it feeds into everything else: Freight becomes more expensive, manufacturing inputs arrive later, food prices rise through transport and fertilizer costs, central banks face renewed inflation pressure and governments face budget strain. Political instability follows economic stress, especially in countries where societies are already exhausted by previous shocks.

Have the US and Israel miscalculated?

All of this points to a broader conclusion. The conflict is expanding because the forces aligned with Iran are deliberately making it expand. Their strategy is not based on rapid decision or spectacular breakthrough. It is based on the controlled multiplication of pressure points. Hezbollah keeps the northern Israeli front unstable. Iraqi factions raise the cost of any deeper American military involvement. Ansar Allah threatens one of the world’s most important maritime corridors. Iran itself remains the central actor, but it does not need to act alone in a linear and isolated fashion. Its allies provide strategic depth, geographical spread, and the ability to transform one war into several interconnected confrontations.

From this perspective, American planners appear to have miscalculated. They may have believed that forceful pressure would narrow Iran’s options and restore deterrence. Instead, it risks producing the opposite result. Rather than isolating Iran, escalation is drawing its allied forces more tightly into the conflict. Rather than shortening the crisis, it is lengthening it. Rather than concentrating the battlefield, it is fragmenting it across the region. That is a dangerous trajectory, because a dispersed war is often harder to win than a concentrated one. It taxes logistics, political patience, alliance cohesion, and public confidence all at once.

What happens next will depend on whether the US and Israel continue to believe that greater military pressure can still produce strategic clarity. That belief now looks increasingly questionable. The longer the war continues without a decisive and stable outcome in Lebanon, the more confidence Hezbollah and its allies will gain. The more American assets are threatened in Iraq, the more difficult it becomes to present deeper intervention as manageable. The more Ansar Allah raises the cost of shipping through Bab el-Mandeb, the more the conflict escapes the boundaries of local war and enters the realm of global economic disruption.

The likely consequence is not a clean victory for any side, but a long phase of attritional regional instability. Israel may continue to intensify its campaign in Lebanon because it has not yet achieved the result it wants. Iraqi militias may continue attacking Western targets while preparing politically for a wider war. Ansar Allah may increase the use of maritime pressure because it understands that chokepoints can generate strategic effect far beyond Yemen itself. Iran, for its part, will keep trying to turn every enemy move into a trigger for wider overextension. It does not need to win in one dramatic moment. It only needs to ensure that its adversaries cannot close the conflict on their terms.

That is the central lesson of the present moment. Military superiority does not automatically translate into political success, especially in a region where allied non-state actors can open multiple fronts with relative flexibility. The US and Israel retain enormous destructive capacity. But destruction is not the same thing as control, and control is not the same thing as victory.

In that sense, the strategic initiative is no longer defined only by who can strike harder. It is increasingly defined by who can force the other side to fight on too many maps at once. Iran and the forces loyal to it appear determined to do exactly that. They are trying to stretch the conflict in time, to stretch it across geography, and to erode the ability of their adversaries to maintain focus. For now, that strategy is working far better than many in the US and Israel.


Murad Sadygzade is President of the Middle East Studies Center, Visiting Lecturer, HSE University (Moscow).

April 1, 2026 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Iran’s friends are about to make life much more difficult for Israel and the US

The Larak Corridor: Iran’s Rial Gate With No US, No Israel, and No Way Around

By Freddie Ponton | 21st Century Wire | April 1, 2026

While MOW Secretary Pete Hegseth was telling other nations to “step up” in the Strait of HormuzDonald Trump was already backing away, insisting its security was “not for us.” In between those contradictions, Washington dumped a fog of conflicting slogans on the public—slogans that never looked like strategy so much as panicked improvisation. That confusion is not a sideshow to the war, but the political static masking a brutal reality. While the White House and its zionist neocon war camp lurch between bluff and retreat, Iran has been moving with cold discipline, quietly building what Iranian reporting calls the Larak Corridor and what maritime trackers have identified as a tightly managed lane through the Qeshm-Larak gap inside Iranian waters.

Around Larak, Tehran is no longer just reacting to an illegal war launched against it. It is turning battlefield pressure into procedure, selective access, and proposed law, using a controlled corridor and a wider Hormuz management plan to show that the old fantasy of automatic Western command over this chokepoint is breaking down in real time. The truth of the war is not found in the bombast coming out of Washington; instead you will find it in the places where power is actually shifting, and right now, one of those places is a narrow strip of water off Larak, where Iran looks calmer, more deliberate, and more in command of events than the people who thought they could bomb it into submission.

The Day Hormuz Moved on Iran’s Terms

The Strait of Hormuz has not been shut, and that is exactly why what Iran has done matters more. What has emerged around Larak is not a crude blockade but a controlled passage system, a wartime checkpoint laid across one of the most important arteries of the world economy. Iranian reporting most often calls it the Larak Corridor. At the same time, the broader phrase Larak-Qeshm Corridor is best understood as a geographic description of the lane running through the narrow gap between those two islands inside Iranian waters.

Names are not cosmetic here. Western and trade coverage tend to speak of a route between Qeshm and Larak. Iranian coverage roots it in Larak itself, in Iranian-managed waters, under Iranian rules. That is the quiet shift the war has produced. For decades, the story of Hormuz was told from the deck of a U.S. carrier. Today, one of its key arteries is being renamed and reorganised from a small island most Western audiences have never been asked to think about.

Iran appears to be building a differentiated transit regime, not a universal shutdown. That means the market consequence is not simply “less supply,” but a more political energy map in which some buyers and shippers face privileged access while others face delay, denial, or sharply higher costs.

That is the part of the story that cuts through the propaganda. A total closure would have been easy to denounce and easy to rally against. A selective corridor is harder to attack because it allows Tehran to say that passage has not ended, only the assumption that ships can move through Iranian waters during an illegal war on Iran without submitting to Iranian conditions.

This is why Larak matters. It is where Iran stopped merely threatening the map and started administering it.

The lane at Larak

The outlines of the new lane are now visible. The Larak Corridor is not a return to normal traffic. It is a filtered, low-volume, politically segmented route for approved movement. Trade and maritime analysis has traced authorised vessels through the five-mile gap between Qeshm and Larak, close to the Iranian coast and under a web of Iranian surveillance and intervention capacity. Iranian and Arabic reporting has described a safe corridor around or between Larak and Qeshm, never a full reopening of the strait, even though yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that the Bahman pier on the eastern side of Qeshm Island was attacked, according to a statement from Hormozgan governor’s office relayed by Iranian state-affiliated media ISNA. Qeshm overlooks the Clarence Strait in the Strait of Hormuz and is referred to by the locals as “Kuran”,  Iran’s main launchpad for its asymmetric naval warfare. In early March, the Israeli/US war machine had targeted a desalination plant on Qeshm Island, leaving 30 villages without water.

That low-volume point changes everything. The lane exists in deliberate contrast to prewar patterns. UN-linked reporting put pre-crisis traffic through Hormuz at roughly 130 ships a day. Against that baseline, the authorised trickle through Larak is not evidence of restored normality but a clear indication that normality has been replaced by a rationed flow that Iran alone can modulate.

The lane also stratifies states. Some governments have secured negotiated passage, some ships have moved after prior coordination and documentation, and others have been turned back or discouraged from approaching in the first place. The result is not an open sea but a tiered system in which diplomatic posture, sanctions alignment, and wartime behaviour shape access to one of the world’s central energy routes.

Calling this a blockade is comfortable for Western officials, but it is wrong. A blockade denies passage to provoke a fight. The Larak Corridor functions more like a wartime border crossing, granting passage conditionally, keeping discretionary power in Iranian hands, and making political hierarchy visible on the water.

Force became law

The story becomes more serious once you see that Tehran is not leaving this system in the realm of ad hoc force, but instead the Islamic Republic of Iran is building a legal scaffold around it.

Parliamentary reporting confirms that Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has approved an eight-point Strait of Hormuz Management Plan. The plan is built around eight clear pillars: securing the strait, ensuring ship safety, addressing environmental risks, establishing financial arrangements with a rial-based toll system, banning American and Israeli vessels from passage, asserting Iran’s sovereign authority and that of its armed forces, cooperating with Oman on the legal framework, and prohibiting entry to any state that participates in unilateral sanctions against Iran.


Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Eight Pillars Management Plan

A parallel description from Xinhuanet states that the measure gathered more than 250 signatures and outlines four immediate objectives: ensuring shipping security, charging environmental polluters, collecting fees for guidance services, and establishing a regional development fund funded by the toll regime. Those details matter as they show that Tehran is not marketing this as a simple wartime levy, but as sovereign administration over safety, environmental protection, navigational management, revenue, and regional development.

It is crucial to be precise. The plan is not yet fully enacted into law. Committee approval is significant because it codifies the logic of the corridor and signals an intention to turn military practice into statute, but Iranian reporting makes clear that key elements are still in the phase of initial measures and continued drafting. That does not weaken the argument. It actually strengthens it. The turning point is not when the last procedural stamp is applied, but when a state under attack openly decides to legislate the war’s new realities into its domestic legal order.

The Oman clause is one of the plan’s sharpest edges. Iranian reporting says Oman must be present in the legal regime and coordination structure because the southern side of the strait is Omani. At the same time, a parliamentary voice emphasised that in matters of toll collection “the essence of the matter is in Iran’s hands,” and that Iran is the party positioned to collect fees, while Oman’s place is in cooperation and coordination, not revenue capture.

In other words, Tehran is regionalising the legal façade without diluting operational control. Omani decrees from 2025 ratifying broader cooperation and legal-judicial accords with Iran give this move a pre-existing legal context, making the Hormuz framework look less like a unilateral edict and more like a hard extension of bilateral agreements into wartime management.

This is what it means for force to become law. Iran is not simply blocking ships. It is regulating them, invoicing them, and giving itself the legal language to defend that behaviour once the guns fall quiet.

Islands’ sovereignty and the human layer

Strip Larak from its geography and you miss half the story. Hormuz cannot be seen as just another free-floating blue line on an analyst’s map. It is a dense, lived space of islands, coastlines, fishing ports, naval outposts, and communities that have grown up under the shadow of foreign fleets and sanctions.

For half a century, the world has been taught to treat the islands of Abu Musa and the Tunbs as footnotes, little “disputed” specks on the map. In reality, they, along with Qeshm and Larak, sit inside a network of surveillance and reach that allows Iran to watch, shape, and, when necessary, squeeze movement at the mouth of the Gulf. The Larak Corridor is not a freakish one-off. It grows out of a sovereignty geography that has been quietly undermining the fiction of an “American lake” in Hormuz for decades.

There is a human layer that rarely makes it into Western press. Iran’s maritime posture is not only the work of admirals in Tehran, but it also rests on coastal communities, port workers, pilots, and the broader ecosystem that includes the Naval Basij, the volunteer maritime defence network you researched earlier. That network, with its small craft, its local knowledge, and its political symbolism, has always been part of how Iran thinks about defending the strait, not simply by hardware but by socialised resistance.

For people living on those coasts, the corridor is not a theoretical legal innovation. It is one of the few visible signs, in the middle of bombardment and assassination, that their state can still impose some order at the place where global power once promised them none. Seen from there, the Larak Corridor looks less like opportunism and more like a resilient country insisting that sovereignty is not an abstract word but something that can be exercised in a specific channel of water under fire.

The Gulf pays for the war

The political brilliance of the Larak move is in who gets billed for it: not Washington first, not Tel Aviv first, but the Gulf order that enabled this war and is now trapped in its consequences.

Gulf governments were not properly warned, their objections were ignored, and Europe was largely marginalised from the decision-making that triggered the regional blowback they are now paying for.

That one sentence punctures the comforting story that the old security architecture still works. Some Gulf capitals had urged Washington not to attack Iran. Some tried to keep a distance from the opening salvo. Europe itself was treated less like a partner than a spectator told to brace for impact.

The cost has not been theoretical. Freight risk exploded. Insurance premiums climbed. Cargo timetables turned into contingency plans. The “guarantee” on offer from Washington turns out to be a package in which Gulf states host bases, bankroll weapons, and then absorb the retaliation and economic shock once the trigger is pulled.

The evidence of fatigue is patchy but real. Saudi Arabia has intensified direct contacts with Iran. Regional diplomacy has tried to put some sort of brake on escalation. At the same time, influential Gulf voices still speak of the need to degrade Iranian capabilities, not simply to stop the war. That tension is important as it shows a region caught between fear of Iran and a growing recognition that the American-led order is no longer a stable shelter.

Larak turns that contradiction from an argument into a daily experience. Every tanker that has to negotiate with Tehran, every nervous call from an insurer, or every investor wondering whether to avoid Gulf exposure. All of it drives home the same lesson. A war on Iranian sovereignty will not remain confined to Iranian soil or to the screens of Western news shows. It will leak into ports, pipelines, desalination plants, stock exchanges, and households across the Gulf.

From a pro-peace, pro-sovereignty perspective, that is the real indictment. The architecture that claimed to keep the region safe has delivered a crisis that no one can turn off without Iran’s involvement.

Beyond the dollar and toward the Global South

Although it may sound like a speculative slogan about some future yuan world, it is a description of an experiment already underway. Iran’s proposed Hormuz management plan speaks in the language of rial-based tolls and financial arrangements. Broader analysis around the corridor connects that direction of travel to non-Western settlement channels and to the wider de-dollarisation agenda now running through BRICS and the Global South.

The point is not that the petrodollar disappears tomorrow. It is that under bombardment, and with its conventional military apparatus under fire, Iran is still moving a slice of energy trade onto monetary rails where Washington’s sanctions power is weaker.

Hormuz is doubling as a testbed for de-dollarized energy payments.

China’s experiment with yuan-settled LNG from Qatar in 2023 showed that Gulf energy can clear outside dollar channels when states choose to build the infrastructure. Iran’s 2023 agreement with the UAE to use the dirham in bilateral trade, while imperfect because of the dirham’s peg, still represents a deliberate shift into regional banking circuits that cost Washington more to police. Meanwhile, BRICS has been advancing alternative payment mechanisms and settlement systems designed precisely to chip away at dollar centrality.

The Larak Corridor slots into this picture with unnerving ease. It rewards states willing to engage with Tehran rather than join the sanctions chorus. It opens space for deals denominated in rial, dirham, or yuan. It demonstrates that a Global South state under open attack can still exert leverage over the physical and financial pathways through which the world’s energy moves.

Tehran is not claiming a clean victory over the dollar. What it is doing is more subversive. It is using the war to erase the assumption that Washington can both close and reopen Hormuz at will, militarily and financially. Every transaction that clears outside Western rails, every ship that goes through a lane managed on Iranian terms, is another chip knocked out of a system that has long treated Gulf energy as an American instrument first and a regional lifeline second.

That is why the story of Larak is not simply a regional shipping story, but rather a frontline in the contest over who writes the rules of the global economy.

The old order is cracking

What has happened at Larak is not the final victory of a new world, but it is one of the clearest signs that the old one is cracking in real time.

For decades, the script ran on autopilot. The United States secured the sea lanes. The Gulf monarchies supplied the fuel. The dollar priced it. Everyone else adjusted. The war on Iran was supposed to be another scene in that familiar play. Instead, it exposed how much of it had become theatre.

Iran’s answer didn’t need to be polite, and it was never meant to be. It was disciplined, coercive, and grounded in the one thing Washington cannot replace with rhetoric, the geographic reality of where Hormuz actually lies. Tehran avoided the trap of a universal shutdown and built a mechanism that punishes enemies, rewards accommodation, and keeps the region inside a rolling uncertainty that no press conference in Washington can dispel.

That is why the phrase differentiated transit regime carries so much weight in this war. It captures the fact that what is happening off Larak is not chaos. It is governance under attack. It is a sovereign state, bombed and sanctioned, insisting that it still has the right to decide who crosses its doorstep and on what terms.

For people in the Gulf, it is about whether their ports can stay open, whether their desalination plants keep running, and whether their economies can withstand another cycle of manufactured crisis. For people in Iran, it is about whether anything in their immediate environment still belongs to them after decades of war, sanctions, and threats of regime change.

Seen from that angle, the Larak Corridor is not a provocation. It is a verdict. Peace will not come from pretending the old arrangement can simply be restored. It will come, if it comes at all, when the region and the wider world accept the reality written into the water off Larak. A Gulf built on assaults against Iranian sovereignty cannot remain prosperous, stable, or truly sovereign itself. Not now, and not in the long term.

Iran’s navy has been battered. Its cities have been hit. Its leaders have been hunted. Yet at the most critical chokepoint on earth, the war machine that promised to reopen the map still cannot make Hormuz move on its own terms.

Sovereignty, once attacked, does not always retreat. Sometimes it answers by redrawing the map and forcing those who lit the fire to live with the new lines.

April 1, 2026 Posted by | Economics, Militarism | , , , , , | Comments Off on The Larak Corridor: Iran’s Rial Gate With No US, No Israel, and No Way Around

Trump to Give “Important Update on Iran” Wednesday in Prime-Time Speech

By Larry C. Johnson – SONAR – April 1, 2026

What is Donald Trump going to say about Iran on Wednesday night? Before I layout three possible outcomes, let’s examine what Trump is actually doing in terms of some key military assets (all of this is from open source reporting).

A-10 Squadron (Confirmed New Deployment)

Since Friday, March 27, 2026, the most prominently reported new US air asset movement to the Middle East (CENTCOM area of responsibility) has been a squadron-sized deployment of A-10C Thunderbolt II attack aircraft (Warthogs). Six A-10s from the Idaho Air National Guard’s 190th Fighter Squadron arrived at Pease Air National Guard Base (New Hampshire) as part of staging. On March 30, twelve A-10s from the Michigan Air National Guard’s 107th Fighter Squadron (Selfridge ANGB) departed Pease for RAF Lakenheath, UK (a common transit stop), in two flights of six. Another six followed on March 31. These ~12–18 aircraft are en route to the Middle East to reinforce or nearly double the existing A-10 presence there.

A-10s are already operating in theater (e.g., from the 75th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron) for close air support, anti-boat strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, drone interdiction, and coastal targeting. The surge supports intensified low-altitude operations against Iranian “mosquito fleet” vessels, mines, and remnants amid the broader campaign.

Apache Helicopters (AH-64) Squadron

US Central Command publicly confirmed the operational use of AH-64 Apache attack helicopters in late March (updates around March 16–18 and a specific confirmation on March 26). The 6-17th Air Cavalry Squadron (part of the 4th Infantry Division Combat Aviation Brigade, operating AH-64D/E variants) is the unit involved. It had been forward-deployed earlier (under prior rotations like Operation Inherent Resolve) but was newly integrated into Epic Fury strikes against Iranian boats, drones, and coastal targets in the southern flank/Hormuz area.

Several viral Facebook posts and YouTube videos (from accounts like “MovieFans.Lich,” “Live WWIIIRE,” and similar sensationalist pages) claim a “massive C-17 fleet” is deploying Apache helicopter squadrons alongside troops, armored vehicles, and equipment. These describe “dozens” or “over 112 C-17s” streaming into the region, with Apaches highlighted for their anti-armor, close air support, and anti-boat roles in rugged coastal terrain. Some videos include generic footage of folded Apaches inside C-17 cargo bays or all-female flight crews turning around quickly.

Posts from OSINT-focused X accounts (e.g., @TheIntelFrog, @Faytuks, @JewishWarrior13) detail dozens of C-17 flights since mid-March (e.g., ~35–50 flights tracked from March 12–24, with more ongoing) originating from bases like Fort Bragg/Pope AAF, Fort Campbell, Hunter AAF, and McChord AFB. Destinations include Ovda (Israel), Jordanian bases (King Faisal, King Hussein), and other CENTCOM hubs. These are linked to troop surges (including elements of the 82nd Airborne) and special operations forces, with some users speculating or claiming that attack helicopters like Apaches are part of the heavy equipment being airlifted. One analysis noted origins tied to units with aviation assets, such as the 160th SOAR (which operates helicopters, though primarily MH-6/ MH-60 rather than AH-64).

The new deployment of these assets are consistent with a military option that involves close-air support and/or attacks on Iranian fast boats and water drones.

So what is Trump going to announce?

Option 1 — Declare that negotiations with Iran via intermediaries (e.g., Pakistan) are progressing and that the United States is going to cease combat operations against Iran in order to support the negotiations and achieve a peaceful resolution.

Option 2 — Declare that victory has been achieved and that US forces will begin withdrawing from the region, leaving the status of the Strait of Hormuz in limbo.

Option 3 — Announce a massive air and ground operation to secure the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

The deployment of the A-10s and the Apaches can only mean one of two things:

  1. It is a show of force intended to pressure Iran to return to the negotiating table.
  2. The US is going to launch a massive attack against Iranian assets in the Persian Gulf, especially those located in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

Since Monday, March 30, 2026, President Donald Trump has made several public comments on the ongoing US-led Operation Epic Fury against Iran, primarily via Truth Social posts, interviews (including with the New York Post ), and remarks to reporters. His statements emphasize US military successes, threats of further escalation if demands are unmet, criticism of allies, and a potential near-term wind-down of direct US involvement.

On Monday, Trump described Iran as effectively “decimated” or “obliterated,” with its air force, navy, and many ships sunk or destroyed. He portrayed the campaign as highly successful and “way ahead of schedule” in prior context, but continued highlighting strikes on “long-sought-after targets.” He shared video footage on Truth Social of a massive explosion and secondary blasts in Isfahan (linked to strikes on uranium-related or military sites), without additional caption in one instance.

Trump also posted that the US was in “serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime” to end operations. He warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is not “immediately ‘Open for Business’” and a deal is not reached shortly, the US would “completely obliterate” Iran’s electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly desalination plants. He framed this as concluding the US “lovely ‘stay’ in Iran.” In follow-up comments, he suggested the US could respond to Iranian actions “twenty times harder” with “Death, Fire, and Fury.”

Overall, Trump’s messaging since March 30 combines triumphalism about US achievements, escalatory warnings tied to the Strait of Hormuz and energy targets, frustration with allies, and signals of de-escalation with a short timeline for reduced US involvement. These comments have influenced market reactions (e.g., oil prices and equities) and drawn responses from Iranian officials and international observers.

Trump’s remarks since Monday have boosted the confidence of the folks on Wall Street and contributed to a significant surge in the stock market, with the Dow up 1,125 points. The price for BRENT oil dropped from 118 to 103 during Tuesday trading. This means the financial folks believe the war is going to end.

I think Trump is counting on Iran offering up some concessions in the face of the US buildup of additional air combat assets. Netanyahu reportedly just said Iran no longer poses a threat to Israel’s existence… A dramatic pivot if true. However, over the last few hours, Israel and the US carried out a large wave of attacks across Iran. They struck targets across several parts of Tehran, as well as in the cities of Karaj, Shahriar, Ahvaz, Shiraz, Abadeh, Isfahan, and Bandar Abbas. Iran will retaliate in force to these latest attacks.

In short, I believe Donald Trump will announce a major offensive to try to force Iran to release its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz… I believe that offensive will fail and that the war will escalate unless the US and Israel agree to two critical Iranian demands: the end of all sanctions and the removal of US military bases from the Persian Gulf arab countries.

Russia and China are two wild cards that could change the trajectory of the current war. If they engage and apply pressure on the diplomatic front — including ironclad security guarantees to Iran — Donald Trump may take the exit ramp.

What do you think?

Pascal Lottaz and I discussed the current situation in the Persian Gulf:

Video Link

I did my usual Tuesday chat with Marcello:

Video Link

A new interview with Rathbone. Interesting fellow… He’s also a comedian:


Video Link

April 1, 2026 Posted by | Militarism, Video, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Comments Off on Trump to Give “Important Update on Iran” Wednesday in Prime-Time Speech